Thursday Night Football: Best Bets for Week 15
Best Bets for Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This is a matchup between divisional rivals in the NFC South. Tampa Bay currently leads the division at 7-6, but the Buccaneers have been spiraling. In their last game, they were shocked at home by the lowly Saints. They’ve now lost four of their last five games. As for Atlanta, the Falcons are 4-9 and therefore seem to lack a realistic shot at making the playoffs. They’ll be playing for pride. To be clear, pride is a real thing. For example, after the Falcons were shut out 30-0 by Carolina, they beat Washington in the following week. The Falcons are coming off a blowout loss and will be eager to rebound.
Thursday Night Odds
Tampa Bay opened as a 5.5-point favorite, but by Monday morning the line shifted by a point in Atlanta’s favor. This line shift is remarkable given the likelihood that Atlanta’s top wide receiver Drake London won’t play. London is dealing with a PCL sprain that has caused him to miss the last three games as well as every practice this week. Tampa Bay, though, isn’t exactly healthy coming into this game. The Bucs on Sunday lost one of their starting guards from an offensive line that has struggled with injuries throughout the year, which has hurt its chemistry. Tampa Bay’s starting free safety Tykee Smith and starting tight end Cade Otton also have yet to practice. However, if the Bucs get back Mike Evans and their starting left tackle, then the light might shift a bit in their favor.
Thursday Night Picks (Falcons +4 at +100 with BetOnline)
Atlanta is a four-point underdog in this matchup because oddsmakers are accounting for home field advantage. But it’s evident by now that the Buccaneers don’t gain an advantage from playing at home. They are coming off a four-point home loss against the Saints. In their other home games, they beat the pathetic Jets by two points, lost to the Eagles, beat the Mac Jones-led 49ers by eleven despite being outgained by them, lost to the Patriots by five, and beat the Cardinals by three. Based on this home game history, four-points is too much for the Bucs to be favored by. Plus, Atlanta plays well on the road. While they lost to the Jets, they outgained them by 120 yards. Before that, they won at New Orleans by 14 and lost at New England by only a point. This simply isn’t a game where location matters, making the underdog an automatically interesting play.
What makes the Falcons clearly the play is Kirk Cousins. He loves playing the Buccaneers: last year under Atlanta’s current offensive coordinator, he threw for 509 yards and helped Atlanta score 36 points on Thursday Night Football. He helped the Falcons go 2-0 against the Bucs by throwing for four touchdowns in his game at Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay’s defensive coordinator is famous for stifling rookie quarterbacks, but the Bucs still lost last week’s game and are making every non-rookie quarterback look amazing – two games ago, Cardinals backup Jacoby Brissett threw for 301 yards against them; three games ago, Matthew Stafford of the Rams threw for three touchdowns and zero interceptions against them, and the list goes on.
Tampa Bay won’t keep up – Baker Mayfield is struggling, having failed to throw for 200 yards in any of his last four games. Atlanta’s ninth-ranked pass defense, which is allowing the third-fewest passing yards in road games and which features the third-ranked pass rush going against Tampa Bay’s beleaguered offensive line, will ensure that his struggles continue and that Tampa Bay’s offense fails to keep pace.
Atlanta’s Kyle Pitts to Record 70+ Receiving Yards (+140) Bovada
Heading into this matchup, the Bucs have proven repeatedly to be vulnerable to opposing tight ends. Last week, New Orleans’ tight end was nearly his team’s leading receiver. Two weeks ago, Trey McBride led Arizona with eight receptions and 82 yards. In Tampa Bay’s games, opposing tight ends are repeatedly key pieces of their pass attack and are having one of their best games of the season. Atlanta’s Kyle Pitts will perpetuate the Bucs’ struggles against tight ends. He already has more receiving yards than he did last year. In each of his last two games, he accumulated over 80 receiving yards. So, he is a better version of the Kyle Pitts who exceeded 80 receiving yards in both of his games against the Bucs last year. With Drake London banged-up, his volume and production couldn’t be more certain.
Best Bets for Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This is a matchup between divisional rivals in the NFC South. Tampa Bay currently leads the division at 7-6, but the Buccaneers have been spiraling. In their last game, they were shocked at home by the lowly Saints. They’ve now lost four of their last five games. As for Atlanta, the Falcons are 4-9 and therefore seem to lack a realistic shot at making the playoffs. They’ll be playing for pride. To be clear, pride is a real thing. For example, after the Falcons were shut out 30-0 by Carolina, they beat Washington in the following week. The Falcons are coming off a blowout loss and will be eager to rebound.
Thursday Night Odds
Tampa Bay opened as a 5.5-point favorite, but by Monday morning the line shifted by a point in Atlanta’s favor. This line shift is remarkable given the likelihood that Atlanta’s top wide receiver Drake London won’t play. London is dealing with a PCL sprain that has caused him to miss the last three games as well as every practice this week. Tampa Bay, though, isn’t exactly healthy coming into this game. The Bucs on Sunday lost one of their starting guards from an offensive line that has struggled with injuries throughout the year, which has hurt its chemistry. Tampa Bay’s starting free safety Tykee Smith and starting tight end Cade Otton also have yet to practice. However, if the Bucs get back Mike Evans and their starting left tackle, then the light might shift a bit in their favor.
Thursday Night Picks (Falcons +4 at +100 with BetOnline)
Atlanta is a four-point underdog in this matchup because oddsmakers are accounting for home field advantage. But it’s evident by now that the Buccaneers don’t gain an advantage from playing at home. They are coming off a four-point home loss against the Saints. In their other home games, they beat the pathetic Jets by two points, lost to the Eagles, beat the Mac Jones-led 49ers by eleven despite being outgained by them, lost to the Patriots by five, and beat the Cardinals by three. Based on this home game history, four-points is too much for the Bucs to be favored by. Plus, Atlanta plays well on the road. While they lost to the Jets, they outgained them by 120 yards. Before that, they won at New Orleans by 14 and lost at New England by only a point. This simply isn’t a game where location matters, making the underdog an automatically interesting play.
What makes the Falcons clearly the play is Kirk Cousins. He loves playing the Buccaneers: last year under Atlanta’s current offensive coordinator, he threw for 509 yards and helped Atlanta score 36 points on Thursday Night Football. He helped the Falcons go 2-0 against the Bucs by throwing for four touchdowns in his game at Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay’s defensive coordinator is famous for stifling rookie quarterbacks, but the Bucs still lost last week’s game and are making every non-rookie quarterback look amazing – two games ago, Cardinals backup Jacoby Brissett threw for 301 yards against them; three games ago, Matthew Stafford of the Rams threw for three touchdowns and zero interceptions against them, and the list goes on.
Tampa Bay won’t keep up – Baker Mayfield is struggling, having failed to throw for 200 yards in any of his last four games. Atlanta’s ninth-ranked pass defense, which is allowing the third-fewest passing yards in road games and which features the third-ranked pass rush going against Tampa Bay’s beleaguered offensive line, will ensure that his struggles continue and that Tampa Bay’s offense fails to keep pace.
Atlanta’s Kyle Pitts to Record 70+ Receiving Yards (+140) Bovada
Heading into this matchup, the Bucs have proven repeatedly to be vulnerable to opposing tight ends. Last week, New Orleans’ tight end was nearly his team’s leading receiver. Two weeks ago, Trey McBride led Arizona with eight receptions and 82 yards. In Tampa Bay’s games, opposing tight ends are repeatedly key pieces of their pass attack and are having one of their best games of the season. Atlanta’s Kyle Pitts will perpetuate the Bucs’ struggles against tight ends. He already has more receiving yards than he did last year. In each of his last two games, he accumulated over 80 receiving yards. So, he is a better version of the Kyle Pitts who exceeded 80 receiving yards in both of his games against the Bucs last year. With Drake London banged-up, his volume and production couldn’t be more certain.
