Mavericks -2 -110 (5units) {could get cheaper) PUSH
Under 214 -110 (2units) Win +2.00
Under 105.5 -109 Suns team (1unit) Win +1.00
Basically the first thing that stands out to me is the line. Clearly DAL has played extraordinary ball for awhile and is more highly regarded in terms of line strength. I do NOT think on a neutral court these teams are EQUAL or in this case Suns are slightily better. Just who has Pho defeated? That Eastern trip was nice but they played no one really. They get WASH at home and never really even have a lead. Where as we have seen DAL destroy Denver and Washington already at home. Teams I would consider comparable to PHO. The Suns after that WASH game put an emphasis on better D and they have held opps last 5 to about 43%. Its misleading to think DAL is an offenive juggernaut. Against both DEN and Wash they played well UNDER.....Nugs had 90 and Was had 80 ...Dallas has seen 4 totals better then 200 but only the 1st meeting ion PHO sailed over (207) where Raja Bell the Suns best defensive player was out and actually so was Josh Howard.
Basically I think this line should be about -4 so that IMO creates some value. Just look how low PHO lines were last road trip. You see Dallas laying some big numbers to Det , Denver and the Lakers recently.
I realize Diggler didnt pratice yesterday due to illness but what does that mean really?? For all we know he had the RUNS>......! Stackhouse appears doubtful and hasnt been much of a factor lately ......Dallas bench is not all that deep which means heavy minutes for the starters.... Since the Magic when they were a 1 pt dog it seems PHO has been overvalued....huge DD spreads vs Miami , GS and Wash...th elatter two actually took PHO wire to wire.....
Utah @ SA
As of now staying clear of this game....I think SA could be around -6 but this seems to many IMO. Do I want to fade SA off a SU Loss? Do I want to fade SA over 4 straight ATS loses at home? Do I want to back Utah after there recent road play?? In a revenge spot in a plce they have lost 14 straight??H onestly I do cause the SA defense has stunk all year and they get destroyed in the paint vs MILW and look at Utahs forwards!!!!
That also makes me think the Under while I agree with BetCrimes could be in serious jeopardy.....offensivly Spurs should be around 100 and look at how many times Utah allowed a 100++ in a road game!!
Seattle @ Denver
Really want to see how SEA reacts to playing w/o its two top scorers. they really dont have much offense beyond there first 4 or 5 options tonite and Denver despite missing key players can still score it. We just dont know about consistency with them. Looking at the over 213 though as Denver should be around 110 and this odd line movement certainly makes me think I may have overvalued DEN in this spoy since I thought 8 was light.....
1st Quarter : (2-0 +2.02)
Dal -1 +100 (1u) Win +1.00
SA -2.5 +102 (1u) Win +1.02
Under 47 +100 SA (lean only)
Player Prop Leans :
Under 30 -111 AI
Over 9 -111 Najera
Under 214 -110 (2units) Win +2.00
Under 105.5 -109 Suns team (1unit) Win +1.00
Basically the first thing that stands out to me is the line. Clearly DAL has played extraordinary ball for awhile and is more highly regarded in terms of line strength. I do NOT think on a neutral court these teams are EQUAL or in this case Suns are slightily better. Just who has Pho defeated? That Eastern trip was nice but they played no one really. They get WASH at home and never really even have a lead. Where as we have seen DAL destroy Denver and Washington already at home. Teams I would consider comparable to PHO. The Suns after that WASH game put an emphasis on better D and they have held opps last 5 to about 43%. Its misleading to think DAL is an offenive juggernaut. Against both DEN and Wash they played well UNDER.....Nugs had 90 and Was had 80 ...Dallas has seen 4 totals better then 200 but only the 1st meeting ion PHO sailed over (207) where Raja Bell the Suns best defensive player was out and actually so was Josh Howard.
Basically I think this line should be about -4 so that IMO creates some value. Just look how low PHO lines were last road trip. You see Dallas laying some big numbers to Det , Denver and the Lakers recently.
I realize Diggler didnt pratice yesterday due to illness but what does that mean really?? For all we know he had the RUNS>......! Stackhouse appears doubtful and hasnt been much of a factor lately ......Dallas bench is not all that deep which means heavy minutes for the starters.... Since the Magic when they were a 1 pt dog it seems PHO has been overvalued....huge DD spreads vs Miami , GS and Wash...th elatter two actually took PHO wire to wire.....
Utah @ SA
As of now staying clear of this game....I think SA could be around -6 but this seems to many IMO. Do I want to fade SA off a SU Loss? Do I want to fade SA over 4 straight ATS loses at home? Do I want to back Utah after there recent road play?? In a revenge spot in a plce they have lost 14 straight??H onestly I do cause the SA defense has stunk all year and they get destroyed in the paint vs MILW and look at Utahs forwards!!!!
That also makes me think the Under while I agree with BetCrimes could be in serious jeopardy.....offensivly Spurs should be around 100 and look at how many times Utah allowed a 100++ in a road game!!
Seattle @ Denver
Really want to see how SEA reacts to playing w/o its two top scorers. they really dont have much offense beyond there first 4 or 5 options tonite and Denver despite missing key players can still score it. We just dont know about consistency with them. Looking at the over 213 though as Denver should be around 110 and this odd line movement certainly makes me think I may have overvalued DEN in this spoy since I thought 8 was light.....
1st Quarter : (2-0 +2.02)
Dal -1 +100 (1u) Win +1.00
SA -2.5 +102 (1u) Win +1.02
Under 47 +100 SA (lean only)
Player Prop Leans :
Under 30 -111 AI
Over 9 -111 Najera
Last edited:
