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Thursday NBA

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
Mavericks -2 -110 (5units) {could get cheaper) PUSH
Under 214 -110 (2units) Win +2.00
Under 105.5 -109 Suns team (1unit) Win +1.00

Basically the first thing that stands out to me is the line. Clearly DAL has played extraordinary ball for awhile and is more highly regarded in terms of line strength. I do NOT think on a neutral court these teams are EQUAL or in this case Suns are slightily better. Just who has Pho defeated? That Eastern trip was nice but they played no one really. They get WASH at home and never really even have a lead. Where as we have seen DAL destroy Denver and Washington already at home. Teams I would consider comparable to PHO. The Suns after that WASH game put an emphasis on better D and they have held opps last 5 to about 43%. Its misleading to think DAL is an offenive juggernaut. Against both DEN and Wash they played well UNDER.....Nugs had 90 and Was had 80 ...Dallas has seen 4 totals better then 200 but only the 1st meeting ion PHO sailed over (207) where Raja Bell the Suns best defensive player was out and actually so was Josh Howard.

Basically I think this line should be about -4 so that IMO creates some value. Just look how low PHO lines were last road trip. You see Dallas laying some big numbers to Det , Denver and the Lakers recently.

I realize Diggler didnt pratice yesterday due to illness but what does that mean really?? For all we know he had the RUNS>......! Stackhouse appears doubtful and hasnt been much of a factor lately ......Dallas bench is not all that deep which means heavy minutes for the starters.... Since the Magic when they were a 1 pt dog it seems PHO has been overvalued....huge DD spreads vs Miami , GS and Wash...th elatter two actually took PHO wire to wire.....

Utah @ SA

As of now staying clear of this game....I think SA could be around -6 but this seems to many IMO. Do I want to fade SA off a SU Loss? Do I want to fade SA over 4 straight ATS loses at home? Do I want to back Utah after there recent road play?? In a revenge spot in a plce they have lost 14 straight??H onestly I do cause the SA defense has stunk all year and they get destroyed in the paint vs MILW and look at Utahs forwards!!!!
That also makes me think the Under while I agree with BetCrimes could be in serious jeopardy.....offensivly Spurs should be around 100 and look at how many times Utah allowed a 100++ in a road game!!


Seattle @ Denver

Really want to see how SEA reacts to playing w/o its two top scorers. they really dont have much offense beyond there first 4 or 5 options tonite and Denver despite missing key players can still score it. We just dont know about consistency with them. Looking at the over 213 though as Denver should be around 110 and this odd line movement certainly makes me think I may have overvalued DEN in this spoy since I thought 8 was light.....


1st Quarter : (2-0 +2.02)
Dal -1 +100 (1u) Win +1.00
SA -2.5 +102 (1u) Win +1.02
Under 47 +100 SA (lean only)

Player Prop Leans :
Under 30 -111 AI
Over 9 -111 Najera
 
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PHX can only beat who is put in front of them, and their snowbound DEN game screwed their preparation for their home WAS encounter (not that I'm complaining bout that one), which ultimately they blew anyway, after trailing most of the night. I think this is a bigger game for PHX after having lost their 1st games vs SAS & DAL this season. 14 of the last 15 games between these 3 teams have been covered ATS by the SU winner, so laying the points seems to be of little consequence.

As for the Spurs D, they held Utah to 83 in Utah, and have fared better against better teams this season, as opposed to weaker opponents. Utahs road realities are a concern, but have been lower totaling in SU losses, vs SU wins, and I clearly lean on the Spurs not losing a 3rd straight home game here.

BOL Nut
 
Thats very true BET the difference is when perceptions change and lines change based on what I see as insignificant wins. With the Wash game sure they were at a disadvantage cause of the late arrival. However this deep into the season I would side with Allen Iverson and say we are talking about pratice...pratice is useless at this point especially when you have been playing every other nite. So it was not an optimal situation for the Suns but thats life. YOu could say they benefited from the no calls in the ORL game for Dwight Howard...really my point with the WAS game is they should have never been DD favs against that team....

I do agree its a bigger game for PHO though but I am balancing that with Dallas playing at a higher level so far at home.

The 1st meeting was the last game of a low scoring 3 game run for Utah so I cant weigh that very heavily. Look at the last game in SA last season...I think nearly every Utah road game has seen at least 94 pts from the opponent...and I see SA allowing 98 , 98 and 97 to Houston , Philly and Memphis prior to the Bucks game for SA so this isnt exactly a recent problem with the defense...SA 9 of 14 with a 100 or better at home...

I definetly could see an Under here but I also could see the continuation of what has been going on so I passed...personally I dont like when I see what I feel is a fair line move up or down... I had this @ 190 with a range of 188 -192 so outside just makes me think twice.....going see whats up at half....taking great patience for me to wait...

Weird card......BOL .....ya know I am rooting for you!
 
good luck nut, my only play was dallas team total over 108 for a nickel, bama starts off the day deep in the hole lol
 
xpression syst_m said:
good luck nut, my only play was dallas team total over 108 for a nickel, bama starts off the day deep in the hole lol

GL Dan...wasnt sure if you were back in the swing of things so I tried to stay out of touch...didnt want to drag you in...I contemplated that Dal over...
 
I definetly could see an Under here but I also could see the continuation of what has been going on so I passed...

I agree, that and the Dog stats for Utah meant I havent gone to the woodshed on this one.
 
I think this is simply one odd year in the NBA. Scoring seems to be way up yet the totals have only seen minor change. I guess maybe its the new ball but the past seasons / past meetings make it real hard to make comparisions with this season. I dont think anything your using is inaccurate its just not the same playing field anymore it seems....
 
NCAAB ...boredom plays(2-0-1 +4.90)

Under 121 -108 St Johns (2u) Win +2.00
Under 140-116 texas tech (2u) PUSH(sucks!)
UNLV +4.5 -110(2u) ML +179 (1/2u) Win +2.90
Wash St +12.5 -110 (2u)ML +740 (1/4u)
Over 66 +104 Hawaii 1st H (1u)
 
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Well your looking good Nut. Not to complain, but Dallas is gettin some home cookin here...
 
Its early still...pissed I didnt play the Spurs though..cause even though it looked like value in Utah you know SA has double revenge..
 
SportsNut said:
Its early still...pissed I didnt play the Spurs though..cause even though it looked like value in Utah you know SA has double revenge..

Well I played the Under in SA. Not happy with 101 1st H points. If this Spurs total goes Over, I am done betting SA Unders for the year. The way it loks is that this total is gonna sail. Reminds me of Bears totals this year in NFL. Historically both are Under teams that pride themselves in defense, yet they score at will making a low O/U number, a value.
 
2 Nd Half

Spurs +2 -121 (1u) ML +121 (1u) Wins +2.21

Lean Over 100 -110

Just think everything about this line and consequent moves screamed Spurs and Over! just like in Charlotte , the Spurs will be crisp in the 2nd H as the mission IMO is 4 crisp quarters of basketball
 
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sports i been on fire with the player props hit the tj prop the other day in first half and hit my osh howard o6.5 and my jason terry o22 pts and rebounds good luck on r props
 
Spurs have been a different team since Ginobili returned from injury this year...dont know the numbers exactly . Sinc ethen they have been putting up 100+ regularly
 
Supersav said:
sports i been on fire with the player props hit the tj prop the other day in first half and hit my osh howard o6.5 and my jason terry o22 pts and rebounds good luck on r props

Nice work. I have fallen in love with the player props something like 7-1-1 so far. However just gonna pass on these two tonite fell like I would be playing more cause they are best available and bot what they should be good value! BOL!
 
This whole night is pissing me off. Dallas is doing everything they can to slow this game down, with a little help form the refs as well. Spurs forgot how to play defense and score at will now.
 
SportsNut said:
Nice work. I have fallen in love with the player props something like 7-1-1 so far. However just gonna pass on these two tonite fell like I would be playing more cause they are best available and bot what they should be good value! BOL!

I already won the props in the first half sports i love it:drinking:
 
SportsNut said:
1st Q uarter ML +164 Seattle (1unit)

Wow. I really think the Nuggets roll tonight. Is this play based on the fact that you think Seattle will hang around but once the subs come in they don't have any depth?
 
<TABLE id=HB_Mail_Container height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 UNSELECTABLE="on"><TBODY><TR height="100%" UNSELECTABLE="on" width="100%"><TD id=HB_Focus_Element vAlign=top width="100%" background="" height=250 UNSELECTABLE="off">Sports, will you have a 2nd qtr. play, or 2nd half?</TD></TR><TR UNSELECTABLE="on" hb_tag="1"><TD style="FONT-SIZE: 1pt" height=1 UNSELECTABLE="on">
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Something like that. With 2 stars out I think there is a great chance the best basketball they play tonite is the first 12 minutes. That coupled with still a very shorthnaded DEN squad and a payback of 164 is worth a shot...I would think they are definetly pumped coming out of the box. This game looks to easy and would love to know why it moved lower....The best part about 1st Q is you started off equal...

Second half play Terp ......tough to say..

Devin Harris has destroyed DAL in the 4th Q!
 
<TABLE id=HB_Mail_Container height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 UNSELECTABLE="on"><TBODY><TR height="100%" UNSELECTABLE="on" width="100%"><TD id=HB_Focus_Element vAlign=top width="100%" background="" height=250 UNSELECTABLE="off">the reason I asked is I am finally home and enjoying my return, missed the NBA with the exception of Phoenix. Keep me posted on any other possibles for tonight!</TD></TR><TR UNSELECTABLE="on" hb_tag="1"><TD style="FONT-SIZE: 1pt" height=1 UNSELECTABLE="on">
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Lets see 5 minutes in we have a miss FT by a 90% shooter and 3 missed SEA layups..and 3 silly turnovers on yop of that and I am only down 3
 
Austintx_05 said:
Great call on the Under in Dallas

Thanks , I pussed out on it though keeping it at 2 units....should be having a real great nite on a short card but good will do...
 
Would have been nice if Seattle wasnt incredibly sloppy in the 1st quarter . What can I expect though with all these guys who I cant even say or spell their names...
 
Mavericks -2 -110 (5units) PUSH
Under 214 -110 (2units) Win +2.00
Under 105.5 -109 Suns team (1unit) Win +1.00

1st Quarter : (2-1 +1.02)
Dal -1 +100 (1u) Win +1.00
SA -2.5 +102 (1u) Win +1.02
ML +164 Seattle (1unit) Loss -1.00

2 nd Half (+2.21)

Spurs +2 -121 (1u) ML +121 (1u) Wins +2.21
Seattle SuperSonics +4 -118 (4u) ML +189 (1u)

NCAAB ...boredom plays(3-0-1 +6.65)

Under 121 -108 St Johns (2u) Win +2.00
Under 140-116 texas tech (2u) PUSH(sucks!)
UNLV +4.5 -110(2u) ML +179 (1/2u) Win +2.90
Wash St +12.5 -110 (2u)ML +740 (1/4u) Win +1.75 (so close)
Over 66 +104 Hawaii 1st H (1u) late tip
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Second Half :

Seattle SuperSonics +4 -116 (4units) ML +189 (1u)

yep , I am officialy NUTZ! Look at these teams Denver is slightily better cause it has AI but I like Sea in the post...
 
Sorry retburj...Guess I overthought this one.....Seattle had so many easy chances they fumbled away..thank Earl for missing both Fts and for Collison just dropping the ball out of bounds ...refs sucked as well)wilcox got hammered) and never complain about them but they were hideous.....went to sleep saying how easy DEn was and I lose 6 unist on the game....sometimes I wonder about me!
 
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