Thursday NBA


Breaking it down briefly
back on track like most of the forum on Wed...Pacers were the BIG PLAY and they won SU.... think my original leans were 13-4....

Anyway short card...time to look at the NFL & Bowls ...maybe some CBB...

Bobcats +3.5 -110 (XLarge) & +3.5 -105 (Medium) & ML +148(Medium) (all ATS wins at home have been SU)

The Magic closed Nov winning 5 straight , 9 of 10 and 11 of 13...en fuego...How do you put out the flames..? Just wait for the cool breeze of Dec...They finished up there road trip with the final 4 games going 2-2 but barely won in Sac and Port by 3 & 2 pts..they lost by 15 in LAC and 14 in Indiana....they come home and lose a tough game to Det , followed by a narrow win vs Phily (2pts) , now consecutive losses to phoenix and a shorthanded Tor squad.....Thats 3-5 with 3 narrow wins and they are road chalk...

Now Grant Hill will not play , Turkoglu is OUT and Nelson looks doubtful(bogans questionable as well)....which leaves only Dooling and Darko off the bench...Deiner and Reddick were college stars but this is the NBA now...and they are still inconsistent and unproven...unreliable...

They have been road chalk 5 times covering the occassions when they were only -1 with narrow wins in Boston & Miami but losing as -3 or -4 , in Portland (SU win, no cover) , losing SU in Memphis & Atlanta....

So lets get this straight Orl is not playing good basketball , they have 3 key players OUT and play poorly as road chalk...?? Facing a team off consecutive 30 pt losses and a 20 pt loss...when it was missing its PG who has returned.

They have already met earlier this season with ORL winning by 14 when they were playing well as 7.5 pt home chalk. Now that game was minus Breven Knight who only had 14 dimes tonite!!! Charlotte is 3-1 lifetime hosting Orl losing as 1 pt dogs last season w/o Okeafor or May. Last 3 visits Orl was only -1.5 in Char(which I still think we should see) this Bobcat team any worse then previous ones Or is this Orl team any better then previous ones....basically not as of today for either!

Up until the DET home game they were 3-5 SU & ATS....Both teams back to back but Orl playing 5th in 7 nites.....Charlotte should be looking for some sort of statement game after hanging with Cle and after being embarrassed 3 straight at home...

Days Rest

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR class=datahead><TD width=170>0 Days Rest </TD><TD width=70>W/L</TD><TD width=70>ATS</TD><TD width=70>AF</TD><TD width=70>AA</TD><TD width=70>Total</TD><TD width=70>O/U</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>ORL</TD><TD class=datacell>5-0</TD><TD class=datacell>3-2-0</TD><TD class=datacell>98.2</TD><TD class=datacell>90.6</TD><TD class=datacell>188.8</TD><TD class=datacell>2-3</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>CHAR</TD><TD class=datacell>2-2</TD><TD class=datacell>2-2-0</TD><TD class=datacell>92.5</TD><TD class=datacell>95.2</TD><TD class=datacell>187.8</TD><TD class=datacell>2-2</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

They are 2-0 on back ends in DEC but the latest was just a 2pt win over the struggling Sixers (laying -12) and a 3pt buzzer beating win in Sac(catching 4.5)...

<TABLE class=data id=_ctl0__ctl0_tblTrendsHomeATS cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahead colSpan=2></TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell colSpan=2>
  • Bobcats are 28-10-2 ATS in their last 40 games playing on 0 days rest.

Spurs @ New Orleans

The Hornets are still missing their TRIO but seem to have found some sort of identity lately. They battled back to make it a game vs Chicago before falling by 3 and then as 5 pt dogs UPSET the Cavs. SA is in a 4th in 5th spot and 5th in 7 days....which benefits the aay team usually regardless of fav or dog role

The Spurs in the past 10 meetngs are 8-2 with all of the wins by at least 10 points in this span. The Hornets also have 2 days rest since there last game but generally speaking the Spurs minutes last nite were insignificant. For all the talk about how bad SA is on ZERO rest they are now 3-3 ATS this season which should be weighed more heavily then past years IMO.

For me its hard to find a value for this NO team. Mostly because of the absence of key relative terms what is SA worth versus a Chi or a Cle team...?? Clearly they are worth a few points more...but SA was alos just laying -4.5 in LAL...??? So this is a tough spread for me to get a handle....if I had to guess I would think -5.5 was correct not -7....but its a guess...Cause at times SA has been overvalued and its looks like NO has been slightily undervalued past 2 at home..

The Spurs are scoring a ton of points this year....a ton...95+ last 7 games and 13 0f 15 games ...Previously NO has struggled scoring against SA but if they cant stop SA from cracking 95 how can this game go UNDER 180?? So cause I cant figure out a side the total is a question mark to me as well....I lean towards NO covering the points....which means I have to think this game goes over...Spurs only below 92 (twice) all season...though the Spur DEFENSE is resurfacing holding 4 of 5 to below 82 points lately......

right now this game has me going back and forth..I can make a case for the under based on Spurs recent Defense stats , past history of NO struggling to score vs SA and the fact they are relying on some marginal players for offense..The over could be had if we see the 95 level for SA if NO would sneak over......

Sort of leaning towards the Hornets catching better then 7 or maybe a 1st Half....something I will just look at as the day progress..

Houston @ Golden State

We know TMac is out but Houston let LAL get some momentum after leading most of the 1st Half and were flat as could be for the 3rd Q. Then they make some sort of ridiculous run to cut it 2 but Padgetts missed FT's that could have tied ended the rally...They need a bounce back effort from Battier and Skip to My Lou who were jsut 1 of 11...from three...

These teams met on 12/5 and the Rockets spanked GS . Thanks to the fact GS could not defend TMac or Ming. You worry about how the slow footed Ming will do versus teams that like to run but history has shown they have fared well against GS( GS has seeming always been uptempo)

I see GS as a Wizard like team which Houston just played and defeated on the road. McGrady was around for 3 quarters but it was Ming who took over in the 4th quarter. The way I see it GS -2 is probably the highest it should be...the -4.5 seems like overreaction to me...?? We just saw Hou win by 30 in a game were the Rockets were -7.5 and probably should have been about -9...they were oly -3 vs Sac who just isnt playing well...

<LI class=more>Rockets are 15-4-3 ATS in their last 22 Thursday games. <LI class=more>Rockets are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.<LI class=more>Underdog is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings. <LI class=morecool>Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.<LI class=morecool>Warriors are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games following a S.U. win.
Now trends based on days of the week are silly but I thought about how in the NBA Thursday is like MNF in the NFL...having a good Thur record probably means you have done well on Primetime TV games...?? Just a theory...Really both teams have strong supportive trends...

Basically even without McGrady I think this line is to high especially playing against team that doesn not defend.....Despite revenge and all I just see this as being to fat....Also the first game of a West Coast trip after a home game that got away should see increased focus....

Play: Houston +4.5 -110 (medium/large)unsure & ML +170 (small)
Over 197.5 -110 (Medium)

Past 13 home games GS has scored less then 106 only twice (101 & 91) and have allowed at least 100 in 9 of them...Total in Hou was 192.5 which you would suspect to be alot lower scoring then in GS..

Team Totals
Bobcats over 90 -113 (Medium)
Over 96.5 Houston -112 (medium)

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Been liking Cats a bit but after reading Nut and Sacjosh I have to submit this shit..great reasoning fellas.
Thanks Phillfan 18 , flash , 3gamblers , Veto , KMacc , BAR , cakeoff , Duy and Good Luck.....

Going to finish the last 2 games up I was in the middle of writing them up last nite and I must of lost them when I hit submit...
I like it a lot and am on it as well. GL SportsNut :cheers:

btw, thanks for your comments last night, you're right I disregarded the fact that Mavs were shorthanded when bench is concerned. GL
shhhhhhhh.....hopefully the John Q Pubes will pounce this sucker as soon as they start getting off of work.

Love the play:cheers:
CenTexGambler said:
shhhhhhhh.....hopefully the John Q Pubes will pounce this sucker as soon as they start getting off of work.

Love the play:cheers:

Thanks CenTex...Next time maybe I should private message it..(j/k)? BOL
Satyr said:
I like it a lot and am on it as well. GL SportsNut :cheers:

btw, thanks for your comments last night, you're right I disregarded the fact that Mavs were shorthanded when bench is concerned. GL

just an observation...I think it worked out for most though..hopefully most got Dal @ -8.5...

GL tonite
renew orleans said:
GL SportsNut, wish I grabbed ML too, but with you on +3 Charlotte

That was one of the rare times I felt I had to take something before I went to sleep...nearly +150 when it probably should be even money...?? Crazy line...GL
On paper hornets do look like poopy...

If you going SA do it now 7 wont last much longer...also the away teams tends to perfrom best in 4th in 5 nite situations....usually cause its shaded towards the home team...

I dont know...Just gonna wait till tip to see where its alt.....BOL

Bobcats +3.5 -110 (XLarge) WIN +5. ML +148 (medium) Win +2.96
Bobcats +3.5 -105 (Medium)Win +2.00
Houston +4.5 -110 (Medium) ML +170 (Small)
Houston +4.5 -110 (Small)
Over 197.5 -110 Houston (Medium)

Team Totals
Bobcats over 90 -113 (Medium) Win +2.00
Houston Over 96.5 -112 (Medium)

Over 46.5 -115 1st Q Bobcats (Small) Loss -1.15
Over 181 -110 Bobcats (Small) Win +1.00

This small cards can be unexciting....still cautious with Houston played it for more at 4.5 but committing to just half of the play so far...just worried about 9-31 w/o Mac.....worried that I have the wrong mentality thinking the line is fat like I did with Philly last much time to decide...Still contemplating the Spurs/ Hornets...

Its really time to work on Friday , the week 15 NFL and starting to get close enough to Bowl time to make some decisions....

damn over 93.5 Spurs is so tempting....
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3gamblers said:
sports, so ur still with the cats? after the odd line?

Oh yeah.....I played that last change whatsoever...

I think its weird to see a 1.5 dog with normal vig pay just 104 on the ML...@ +3 with +106 vig it paid +148...
2nd H

Over 88.5 -106 (Medium) Win +2.00
Charlotte +2.5 -110 (Medium) Win +2.00 ML +140 (Small) Win +1.40

2-0 (+5.40)
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To be honest I always look at ML plays at losses..its one unit I can live with being wrong...I will take Spurs 94 + plus points though...GL bro...we got that Charlotte game..
Thanks...although I meant to type small play instead of value play on the ML...only a marginal difference...
BetCrimes1984 said:
Nice hit on CHR, Nut. If I hadnt liked that Over, they'd have been a side play for me:cheers:

Thanks BC..sorry I littered your thread with useless banter...tough to play two in the same...I was sort of in the same boat..liked the over but loved Charlotte..
Been trying to type up my Fri thoughts...had originally played Hou @ +4.5 for 4 units (large play) but listed only 2(medium) sitting on the fence with the other half..decided to keep 1 more its a medium play then a small play...I know useless BS...

2nd H
SA -131 ML (Small)
Under 90 +104 (Small)
Need some hlp with that 2nd H Spurs Under but its possible..7 pts in 42 final secs of the3rd Q hurt...think my Spurs team over looks solid 93.5 have 87 with 10 to play....

Which brings me to the nitecap.....just content to ride it out....
Retburj said:
Hous line same at HT +2.5 as GT +4.5 line so play it out i will

Hous +4.5

GL to us sporty

Thanks ret...

Honestly I think Hou was about to let it get out of hand saw 25-15 and the fact they battled back is similiar to what LAL did to them...

I think ML +130 presents alot of value....but having a good nite so far , have 3 units @+4.5 , unit on the ML and 2unit son the over so I am firmly would be Houston or pass...

Sides/Totals +13.96
Bobcats +3.5 -110 (XLarge) WIN +5. ML +148 (medium) Win +2.96
Bobcats +3.5 -105 (Medium)Win +2.00
Houston +4.5 -110 (Medium) Win +2.00 ML +170 (Small)Loss -1.00
Houston +4.5 -110 (Small)Win +1.00
Over 197.5 -110 Houston (Medium) Win +2.00

Team Totals (3-0 +6.00)
Bobcats over 90 -113 (Medium) Win +2.00
Houston Over 96.5 -112 (Medium) Win +2.00
Spurs Over 93.5 -110 (Medium) Win +2.00

Add:(1-1 -0.15)
Over 46.5 -115 1st Q Bobcats (Small) Loss -1.15
Over 181 -110 Bobcats (Small) Win +1.00

1st H :(0-1 -1.00)
Hornets 1st H ML +181 (Small) loss -1.00

2nd H (4-0 +7.44)
SA -131 ML (Small) Win +1.00
Under 90 +104 (Small) Win +1.04
Over 88.5 -106 (Medium) Win +2.00
Charlotte +2.5 -110 (Medium) Win +2.00 ML +140 (Small) Win +1.40
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Damn Baron davis with the late 3....

Cant complain out of 16 wagers only 3 small ones lost which 2 were ML and the other a 1st Q total...

+26.25 will do nicely..+29 was so close though......
Okay scroll back what did I say the line should be in Golden State...

damn I am good sometimes...emphasis on sometimes.....

Gonna look abit more at tmrw but not muc interesting me..then off to sleep.........good nite