Thursday MLB Discussion
- Thread starter BetCrimes1984
- Start date
Sarcastic Sword
Pretty much a regular
this is both TB and Det for me.......I have tried to beat TB so many times this yr with great underdog value and I have lost so many games with Detroit after leading for 7 or 8 innings....So I get the best of both worlds today - I played TB and Det will fuck me......By Santiago of all people....
GameHunter
Pretty much a regular
:hang:Someone shoot me......5 solo HR's in the first 5 innings in Detroit by guys that have combined for 14 HR's all season.....4-1 after 5
There were a few -
<LI class=more>Over is 29-11 in Diamondbacks last 40 during game 4 of a series. <LI class=more>Over is 12-4-1 in Davis' last 17 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance<LI class=more>Over is 10-4-1 in Davis' last 15 road starts<LI class=more>Over is 7-3-2 in Cardinals last 12 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. <LI class=more>Over is 36-17-1 in Cardinals last 54 during game 4 of a series.
Under is 47-18-1 in Cardinals last 66 Thursday games-
The UND trend has been very good to me this season so I couldnt ignore it.....
<LI class=more>Over is 11-3 in Wests last 14 games behind home plate vs. St. Louis. <LI class=more>Over is 9-3 in Wests last 12 Thursday games behind home plate. <LI class=more>Cardinals are 6-13 in their last 19 games with West behind home plate---
Thats the 1 I am hoping holds up ......all just shit I noticed from various sites ...some days I have the time to search for them and others I dont ...:cheers:
I have more on the Over like 3 to 1 amount so more runs is great esp Det runs ! :cheers:
Sarcastic Sword
Pretty much a regular
hopefully Leyland returns to form and pulls his starter with a low pitch count - he has lost so many games this yr like this...
Det keeps getting chances. I am split evenly on game a total so the only saving grace I have is that if Det f's this up at least I 'll split with the over cashing...Any good reads on games tonight that stick out. MY wife's got me roped into dinner with our supper club and I will be scrambling to get them in tonight. I have played, unsuccessfully, Clev, Pitt and SD the past three nights. I know, they all suck, but thought I would squeeze a win from at least one of the with pretty good odds. I have won with the BRaves two nights in a row however.
SN,
Nice call on Detroit last night to win today. And I'm even happier you didn't talk yourself out of it. :tiphat:
Tonight's game in NY has both pitchers, Martinez and Harden throwing a lot of pitches in their last game so what is your take on this game? Joe West is the umpire and it it is supposed to be threatening weather coming in? Will it be windy and do you think it will effect the total? Even though Harden has been great in the first five, he walked six last start,:seeya: and I have a strong feeling he is going to get lit up tonight! But before I take the plunge, would appreciate your opinion. :shake:
!
Nice call on Detroit last night to win today. And I'm even happier you didn't talk yourself out of it. :tiphat:
Tonight's game in NY has both pitchers, Martinez and Harden throwing a lot of pitches in their last game so what is your take on this game? Joe West is the umpire and it it is supposed to be threatening weather coming in? Will it be windy and do you think it will effect the total? Even though Harden has been great in the first five, he walked six last start,:seeya: and I have a strong feeling he is going to get lit up tonight! But before I take the plunge, would appreciate your opinion. :shake:
!
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Arizona was handed this game and they failed to take it . As you said Davis went 0-2 to everyone and never put them away . Why Zona ran out Rosales in the 6th after he escaped the 5th I 'll never know with such a good pen.
Should have just played the fucking over . Would be crushing it instead of up a minimal amount ...
Good hit Jimbo ...sorry Xgamecock....
Really dont have shit I like at night so far including CFB...
Thinking about Yanks , WSox ML and possibly TT overs for SD and Pittsburgh depending on lineups....Maybe LAA especially after reading how the Mariner's team wanted to throw Ichiro a beating cause he is suck a dick and Jiminez wont last but a few innings , Houston ML cause Oswalt owns the Reds....BOL
Should have just played the fucking over . Would be crushing it instead of up a minimal amount ...
Good hit Jimbo ...sorry Xgamecock....
Really dont have shit I like at night so far including CFB...
Thinking about Yanks , WSox ML and possibly TT overs for SD and Pittsburgh depending on lineups....Maybe LAA especially after reading how the Mariner's team wanted to throw Ichiro a beating cause he is suck a dick and Jiminez wont last but a few innings , Houston ML cause Oswalt owns the Reds....BOL
Greencastle
The Doc
nut, im not too sure about the yanks pick.
new york is resting a lot of their big players and seem to have packed it in for the year, while toronto is playing their final home game of the season with doc going for his 20th win.
toronto on the runline for me.
new york is resting a lot of their big players and seem to have packed it in for the year, while toronto is playing their final home game of the season with doc going for his 20th win.
toronto on the runline for me.
Chicago Cubs
@ New York Mets
Thursday, Sep 25, 2008, 6:10 PM CDT
Shea Stadium
Rich Harden vs Pedro Martinez
<!--
-->Mostly cloudy with a 70-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing IN from center field at 20-30 m.p.h. Game Time temperature: Around 65.
(That was taken off of Bleedcubbieblue's website.)
@ New York Mets
Thursday, Sep 25, 2008, 6:10 PM CDT
Shea Stadium
Rich Harden vs Pedro Martinez
<!--
(That was taken off of Bleedcubbieblue's website.)
Actually very cool day here in NY already feels like mid October. Which might be a bonus for Harden (Great velocity and cool weather ) .
Harden doesnt seem to be right at all . The plus for him is getting some extra rest bewteen starts . His last start was frustrating as he couldnt throw strikes especially early on . The good is 1 hit allowed so stuff was probably good but command sucked .
Pedro and his pitch count with there pen is more concerning . However 116 pitches is just tickling the "danger zone" .
With these teams and lineups plus the weak pens the over looks enticing . I will not be touching the total because they are some good UNDER trends / angles .
1st is Harden has been better away I believe in his starts as a Cub . Forget the obvious stats I like that in 4 games he went 7 twice , 6 inn and 5 inn . He has alot of 5 inn starts @ Wrigley so far( 3x only 5 and another 2x 5+ inn IN 7 starts) . The other part about Harden is the kid is near automatic to allow 2 runs or less. Now granted he is probably about a 6 inn pitcher but ONLY 4 x in 2008 did he allow more then 2 runs . Just 4 starts . One time it was 3 runs but 1 was unearned so its a technicality , another time was his 1st start of the DL @ Texas never favorable for a SP , and home v Houston and LAA . If we discount the Texas start and include Japan he has 9 road starts in which 6 he allowed 0 or 1 run and then 3 times he allowed 2 but 1 start was the unearned run start .....
2nd is the Mets . Where do they stand after yesterday ? Seems just like 2007 when they need Tom Glavine a fallen , aging former Cy Young Award Winner and now its Pedro Martinez's job to do that same thing again except here its not the last game of the season. Besides that who on the Mets can get a clutch hit minus Delgado ? Beltran has done well but he got banged up pretty good 2 nights ago and is probably playing hurt right now, Wright had the winning run on 3rd no out and Kd in the 9th last night . Reyes in Sept always a ????
Pedro for the most part has been solid at Shea so far . One crazy thing is neither team has ever faced the opposing SP which might be a little feeling out process even vs a vet like Pedro because he isnt the same guya s 5 years ago. Harden seems to get all or nothing run support and most of the times its alot as a Cub but the few times its wasnt we are looking at 3 or less. Which brings me to Pedro . For some reason there is no better BET then the UNDER at Shea when Pedro pitches . This year its 5-1 and the last start cause he was shelled went OVER . He gets little run support at home just 3 runs to date . Also Harden at Night has been terrific -25 inn 10 hits 4 runs in 4 starts where his run support has been avg at 4 runs .
So the 1 STAT that always sticks out for me is L21 home starts for Pedro the UNDER is 15-3-3
Layne is the UMP as well and the Mets have gone 7-0-1 UNDER the last 8 times he called there game. In fairness we are talking 2 games each from 03,04,06 and 08 not that relevant IMO . Also important is NEARLY every trend outsid of the Pedro one is strong for the OVER.
That coupled with the total getting POUNDED down would simply make me be cautious on this game . Your walking into a game that is either a layup or has Fuck YOU and aggravation written all over it but the number getting pounded .....Now I checked the WIND and your correct some pretty strong winds of at least 20MPH are expected all game and you can clearly see they would be BLOWING IN ---which could explain the line drop on the total.....proced with caution but follow your gut ...:cheers:
<TABLE class=dataTable cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><THEAD><TR><TD class=taC>:00 </TD><TD class=taC>7:00 </TD><TD class=taC>8:00 </TD><TD class=taC>9:00 </TD><TD class=taC>10:00 </TD><TD class=taC>11:00 </TD></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=vaM><TD class="taR b">Wind:</TD><TD class=taC>
20 mph ENE </TD><TD class=taC>
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21 mph ENE </TD></TR><TR class=vaM><TD class="taR b">Condition:</TD><TD class=taC>
Overcast </TD><TD class=taC>
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Rain </TD><TD class=taC>
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tuck321
Not all those who wander are lost
Angels need 1 more to lock but in last game they have dumped a lot with a team they dislike up and Texas qualifies. Did I mention my head hurts. Great days spot for Frisco and Colorado might be looking past to Arizona. del La Rosa has owned them and Zito major inconsistent. Did I mention my head hurts. Lots of angles for Floyd but Slowey has really pitched well at home and yes my head hurts.
Thanks, SN, that was very helpful.
I'm going to try the under now for the first five as "Lou" might play the call ups if it is raining. They might not get the games in this weekend with the Marlins. so the first five innings looks like the right play if you have the right side? (The only Cub who has faced Pedro is Soriano and he is 7 for 43 with no walks and 15 strikeouts so there is a good chance he might sit out.)
I'm going to try the under now for the first five as "Lou" might play the call ups if it is raining. They might not get the games in this weekend with the Marlins. so the first five innings looks like the right play if you have the right side? (The only Cub who has faced Pedro is Soriano and he is 7 for 43 with no walks and 15 strikeouts so there is a good chance he might sit out.)
Good points . Not sure NY has packed it in though winning 7 straight and going 10-1 L11 games . We have so much depth its not such a bad thing to rest a guy or two. Our vets didnt do shit all year so they can rest who they want as long as Giambi , Damon , Abreu and Nady have at least 3 of them playing ......Arod you guys can have him as he was the biggest waste of a player . Cody Ransom could have done what he did in 2008 minus the HRs in the 7th inning when were losing or already had the lead .
Jays just cant hit lately but it is Pavano as well ....
I cashed nice yesterday fading AJ and the previous day on NY as well . So I do have room for error and it would be a small play .
L9 games for TOR 3 runs or less in 7 exceptions Lester for the 2nd time a week and Brian Bass. Though they did recently see Pavano. Jays L3 games scored 3 runs TOTAL
I guess I feel like Halladay has gotten so lucky everytime he faced NY in 08 minus the 1 great start he is due for some bad breaks vs us . Ponson shits the bed one game , Pettitte is terrible the last 2 minutes spots him 3 or 4 in the 1st inning , think he faced us in Joba's 1st career start .....
You do have DiMuro though UMPING but Roy is 1-2 in 3 career starts though not very telling .....
Put it this way you cant go wrong with either side its a tossup IMO based on Jays lack of hitting recently...youget a nice price I think about -165 is to much ....
Also Pavano's last NYY start and he heads into FA as well....no convincing just my side of the story ....and why I want TO GAMBLE small on them....:shake:
Oh and most important FADING Halladay on NORMAL rest at home becuase this is where his weakest starts come . Given an extra day he is filthy ...:cheers:
I have to run out be back though in abit before 7 certainly ....just remember Soriano vs Pedro was mostly in the Yankees -Sox days this aint that Pedro ....:cheers:
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
struggle to see why SD will lose, but I'm content to see how my WS bet pans out.
Greencastle
The Doc
doc halladay, the first pitcher in 34 years to beat the yankees five times in a single season.
the man is the definition of an ace pitcher.
the man is the definition of an ace pitcher.
Nice win . He got lucky in the sense he had a nice matchup just about everytime he faced them . Tip my hat though ...Cervelli's DP was huge ...He lost to Wang 3-2 ...
I honestly think AJ Burnett has been much tougher on NYY then Halladay . :cheers:
Good Luck True . Pissed at myself in bases so far . Just some crap plays and some plays I overthought and passed on ...Ynaks over and Reds over the two glaring ones . Wasted play on the Mets under should have just stayed away like I intended ...College Football much better so far ......
Played ..
LAA ML and -1.5 RL(leaned UNDER )
COL ML and Under 8.5
small stab on LAD +130.
BOL fellas .....
And that was NOT meant to be a knock on Halladay just felt he was only dominanting once vs the Yanks were Burnett was like filthy , filthy , and filthier everytime he faced us ....:cheers:
Played ..
LAA ML and -1.5 RL(leaned UNDER )
COL ML and Under 8.5
small stab on LAD +130.
BOL fellas .....
And that was NOT meant to be a knock on Halladay just felt he was only dominanting once vs the Yanks were Burnett was like filthy , filthy , and filthier everytime he faced us ....:cheers:
rayer
