Thursday MLB Discussion/Thoughts
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Insane evening ..hit Under 8.5 Boston , just think I got TB to over parlay with Navarro's Grand Slam , Orioles , Over 9.5 @ Houston ...but unfortunately my bigger plays were MILW and that includes the over and SPurs 1st Q and 1st Half...Celts 1st H though.....the exact same reason I played Milw here was the same reason I took a shot with Wash tonight...problem was 4 units with the total on the Milw game and 1/2 unit on the Nats....Same exact logic applied and I weighed so lopsided....
Lets see how I finish with Over 8.5 SEA , 1st H over , SEA and Over parlay...small RHE play and the SPURS to over play in the NBA...wish me LUCK !!
Lets see how I finish with Over 8.5 SEA , 1st H over , SEA and Over parlay...small RHE play and the SPURS to over play in the NBA...wish me LUCK !!
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
Just rechecked the Toronto score - losing my internet connection cost me my chance at betting Over in that game, wasn't uphappy about it the last time I saw the boxscore (bot of 8). grrrrr
That was a gift over for sure . Simply a product of a long game with overused bullpens. Without really looking at it I would assume that Jays guys either pitched alot recently or something because he had the quick hook in xtras...Camp had been good but his loctaion was off and kept falling behind...Navarro hits 3-2 2 out Grand Slam...I guess the key was Percival blowing in the 9th rather unexpectedly....internet connection my favorite enemy.....
And yes King Felix laboring one would think the get hom out of there soon but also would like SEA to start doing some damage....they keep allowing Gabbard to escape....BOL:cheers:
tuck321
Not all those who wander are lost
Looking back Washington was the right side. Houston was not reasonable with Backe. I simply did not look carefully. These are Backe's last 3 home games
1. April 12 5 inn. 5 hits, 5 walks and he gave up 0 runs.
2. April 22 7inn. 3 runs, 2 walks This was the bad hitting Padres
3. May 3 5.2 inn. 5 hits, 5 walks and he only gave up 2 runs.
This is just crazy. On April 12 he figures to give up 4.5 runs with 10 men on base in 5 innings. April 22 was reasonable. May 3rd another 10 men on base in 5.2 call it slightly over 4 runs but he gave up only 2. This guy has been living largely on pure luck. It ran out. Houston was a sucker bet and even the normally sound under bet very suspect with this guy pitching. Big mistake not doing my due diligence.
1. April 12 5 inn. 5 hits, 5 walks and he gave up 0 runs.
2. April 22 7inn. 3 runs, 2 walks This was the bad hitting Padres
3. May 3 5.2 inn. 5 hits, 5 walks and he only gave up 2 runs.
This is just crazy. On April 12 he figures to give up 4.5 runs with 10 men on base in 5 innings. April 22 was reasonable. May 3rd another 10 men on base in 5.2 call it slightly over 4 runs but he gave up only 2. This guy has been living largely on pure luck. It ran out. Houston was a sucker bet and even the normally sound under bet very suspect with this guy pitching. Big mistake not doing my due diligence.
Very sound stuff Tuck and I agree my lack of due diligence did in me in as well. I did have the over and .5 unit on the ML but really this game looked easy on the surface but was far from it. Also factor Houston is one of the top 5 lineups vs LHP .
What I was saying was everything on the surface made Houston look easy or right . You had Backe a guy with a good track record @ home compared to the road in his young career
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You had a young LH that I think is pretty good but has had 2 bad starts one of which just happened last time out for him. I wouldnt consider Lannan a known commodity . Nats were 4-12 away this year and Houston had won 8 straight at home. The Astros have one of the better avg vs LHP and I think they are top 5 in the majors....
So everything looks like Houston advantages and the game is hovering around even money ? Really hang around -120 all day? So that alone to me is a tip to check out whats going on with the other side...and as you said Backe has been fortunate walking 5 at home twice in 3 starts , getting good run support but the flip was Lannan had been basically excellent 4 of 6 times and Wash was real close in this series in games 1 and 2 .....which holds weight with me..and was one of the reasons earlier I had played Colorado...basically I was thinking tomyself why didnt Houston open at -130 here ? and while I was right it was like a slap in the face compared to the MILW outcome...
Thats why I really like to hear your thought process . Of course we dont always see eye to eye but we do agree on alot of things and you at times help me realize I am not reading to much into a situation...
I fucked up badly om that Milw game but its not like they didnt have there chances so my fault was just puuting so much stock into what was thinking in that on eparticular situation...I was dead wrong and paid for it there.....
Look forward to chatting again tmrw the card...not sure I will be around later :cheers::shake:
Well after 4-0 Top 2nd I thought I had my Over 4.5 1st 5 inn sewed up but I guess Sea is in that deep of a funk...hopefully with both epns involved someone opens up a can of whoop ass...be great if it was seattle..blew that nice chance 2nd and 3rd with the kid up in the 4th...:cheers:
Ramon Vazquez 4 for 4 but of course he makes out on the bases...lets go Mariners...at least Spurs came through...boy did I fuck that game up...love SA and liked the over....manage to lose 1st Q 3 u , 1st H 2u , 3rd Q NO 1u and won SA game 1u , SA 2u , and SA parlay 2.5u so I got vigged out a game I had both sides correct.....silly me....
Talk about taking one up the ass...losing that SEA total after being 4-0 top 2nd inning was as painful as I can imagine....
the good news is I went something ridiculous like 11-1 today in plays not involving SEATTLE , MILW , and the 1st H in SPURS....unfortunately reality is I lost every play associated with those 3 games....so cashed +13 units on the good part but the bad part cost me 19 units cause I talked myself into loving them so much.....frustrating to lose 6 units on a day like...
need to get my act straight this week pissed away so many units since a crisp SUNDAY....6 here and 6 there all start to add must be 15ish or so I have to makeup now just on pure sloppiness....and not weighting shit properly.....
Cant believe Hernandez was garbage and Gabbard didnt mae 4 innings and there 1 was run scored after the 2nd inning....
the good news is I went something ridiculous like 11-1 today in plays not involving SEATTLE , MILW , and the 1st H in SPURS....unfortunately reality is I lost every play associated with those 3 games....so cashed +13 units on the good part but the bad part cost me 19 units cause I talked myself into loving them so much.....frustrating to lose 6 units on a day like...
need to get my act straight this week pissed away so many units since a crisp SUNDAY....6 here and 6 there all start to add must be 15ish or so I have to makeup now just on pure sloppiness....and not weighting shit properly.....
Cant believe Hernandez was garbage and Gabbard didnt mae 4 innings and there 1 was run scored after the 2nd inning....
