Thursday MLB Discussion/Thoughts
- Thread starter reNew Orleans
- Start date
7 pm ?
Interested somewhat in Wash but the price isnt great . reason being go check the Mets vs RH SP and then see then vs RH SP on the road think now 1-4 or 1-5 and 3-7 overall. Hill is a good starter when healthy and he suprised me at how good he was last start...also lean under somewhat.....Johnson and Milledge out while Nieves catches for them...probably aides the under...Hill was good twice last year vs NY while perez really was so-so vs Wash best outing 7 inn 4 runs...
Chuck James was solid last outing but not sure how long he can go and the ATL pen is shaky. james was real solid past 2 seasons vs Fla though...Badenhop really still an unknown struggled in home debut but was okay @ Houston....lean ATL..
Hard to not like fading Piniero at this point but I am uncertain that Gorzelanny is healthy. VK made a great point that he trusts the organization wouldnt push him if he wasnt healthy but he can simply be lying . New regime in Pitt so it could be overlooked or he could just be struggling. His shoulder was nbothering him in ST and it could just be one of those things were he has no idea what to expect until he warms up....so lean pitt and maybe an over since they actually hit yesterday..
Like TB and Sonnistine but in a sweep game and off such a great game vs Chi will pass...
Plated Pitt -120 {1u} and ATL 1st 5 inn -160 {1u} and probably will add Wash 1st 5 or game ML...and lean to und 9 Mets...:cheers:
Interested somewhat in Wash but the price isnt great . reason being go check the Mets vs RH SP and then see then vs RH SP on the road think now 1-4 or 1-5 and 3-7 overall. Hill is a good starter when healthy and he suprised me at how good he was last start...also lean under somewhat.....Johnson and Milledge out while Nieves catches for them...probably aides the under...Hill was good twice last year vs NY while perez really was so-so vs Wash best outing 7 inn 4 runs...
Chuck James was solid last outing but not sure how long he can go and the ATL pen is shaky. james was real solid past 2 seasons vs Fla though...Badenhop really still an unknown struggled in home debut but was okay @ Houston....lean ATL..
Hard to not like fading Piniero at this point but I am uncertain that Gorzelanny is healthy. VK made a great point that he trusts the organization wouldnt push him if he wasnt healthy but he can simply be lying . New regime in Pitt so it could be overlooked or he could just be struggling. His shoulder was nbothering him in ST and it could just be one of those things were he has no idea what to expect until he warms up....so lean pitt and maybe an over since they actually hit yesterday..
Like TB and Sonnistine but in a sweep game and off such a great game vs Chi will pass...
Plated Pitt -120 {1u} and ATL 1st 5 inn -160 {1u} and probably will add Wash 1st 5 or game ML...and lean to und 9 Mets...:cheers:
My writeup from yesterday..
Wednesday AL thoughts :
Cleveland @ KC : The Tribe bats really wokeup yesterday OR did they ? I talk alot about deep lineups and how they wear out pitchers. The Tribe has a pretty deep lineup but the problem is its heavily RH and all started in a funk. You see 15 RUNS and one thinks Sizemore , Hafner , Martinez , Garko. ReRead the boxscore finally the bottom of the lineup hit. The top 5 hitters went 6 for 24 with 4 RBI and Dellucci was the guy with 2 hits , 2rbi and a HR in that top 5 not exactly the guy we are thinking of. So the bottom 4 hitters all RHB by the way went 11 for 16 with 11RBI and 2 HRs. Thats Peralta , Cabrera , Gutierrez , and Blake. Two had 3 hits , Blake a perfect 4 for 4 with 6 RBI and Cabrera went 1 /3 . Even after that explosion Peralta hitting 257 , Cabrera 200 , Gutierrez 234 and Blake 233 so most of these guys were in the 170-190 range before this game and we were 20 games deep. The RBI well Blake had 10 coming into the game so 6 more 60% of his season , Gutierrez had 5 coming in and 3 more was also 60% of what he had done all YEAR to date. So a GREAT SIGN for the TRIBE IMO.
KC has lost 5 straight and seems to be struggling on offense 15 runs past 6 games since they left Seattle. Now the face Fausto Carmona who was more like himself last time out vs DET but was definetly aided by so much offense. His first 2 starts were pretty good outside of some command issues were he walked 9 guys vs 7 K's. He allowed just 8 hits and 1earned in 13 innings. Then he signed teh contract extension and was terrible that next outing a few days later. My belief is like most athletes he tried to show he was worth that new contract and it usually goes down badly for those players. The only plus out if that game was it was his command betraying him as he walked good. To me thats better then seeing a guy allow line drive aftre line drive to which he allowed only 2 hits in 3.1 aided by some DP grounders.
At this point I am more concerned with his low STRIKEOUT totals then him issuing to many walks. He is not a strikeout pitcher relying mostly on a 93-96 MPH 2 seamer but like every pitcher you need the ability to make batters swing and miss while also wiggling out of trouble with a K. He owned KC at home but in both road starts allowed 3 runs in 6 innings. With each having a day off the pens should be okay minus Peralta and Yabuta for KC.
Behind the dish with Joyce he is doing a 180 so far as home teams and under are 4-0 . Usually a higer scoring ump who doesnt have a home team bias. Tomko has pitched well and he always had a good arm and looked good at times. Do I wantto believe that going from the NL to the AL at 35 and worse to a hitters park is gonna benefit him? Twins havent hit much and that was 2 of his starts and the other was @ LAA in which Vlad sat out , Kendrick missed due to injury ..and really no stud LH batters..
KC not hiiting lately as I said which makes me wonder if after going 0-4 with 4 Ks does Jose Guillen get a day off in favor Gathright? DeJesus is in and out with injuries only 4/9 Last7 games , Gordon 7 /20 350 but no Hrs 1 Rbi , Teahen 6/22 .273 0hr 1 rbi and 6/23 2 rbi . 261 so not much from there big guns. The rest 18 for 104 2hrs 7 rbi in 7 games! Carmona had some issues at KC 12 inn 19 hits 6 runs 2bb 2ks. The 4 core LHB were 18/41 plus Gathright was 5/10...
I really like the Tribe here but considering its now 150/160 ish which where I thought it should be not sure there is any value in it . Especially seeing Carmona does have some struggles vs there LHB and it showed in his starts @ Kauffman. I think I actually prefer the Over. With Carmona still seemingly trying to get into a groove based on lack of command first few starts which was corrected some but the hits per inning increase vs DET probably says he is still not putting the ball where he wants. So far he hasnt faced a team built on LHB yet. He had WSOX game 1 which i keep saying this team will struggle vs good RHP , then LAA what power bats do they have from the side ? , the Oak fiasco after the contract signing and then recently DET mostly RHB...so an interesting test here and despite the slumps after a beatdown I would think KC can score at least 3 maybe 4 runs..Tomko same deal he faced Minny twice a weak offense and then @ LAA w/o Vlad and still allowed 5 runs...So would think Cle can get 5 or 6...Tomko limited splist 3 for 6 combined Martinez and Sizemore and 2/14 for Dellucci...
Lean Over 8.5 and small lean Cle...
Got scared when Cle sat 3 starters and also seeing Carmonas better numbers with 6 days rest..thought we might see a 5-2 or 5-3 type game...
<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>> 5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>- 2</TD><TD align=right>1.88</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>48.0</TD><TD align=right>41</TD><TD align=right>12</TD><TD align=right>10</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>10</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>29</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>.224</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Those were his numbers last year when pitching on more then normal rest . Being he blossomed last year I didnt even look at any other seasons...
4-2 1.88 ERA 7 starts .224 BAA scared the shit out of me with KC in a slump...
Also as I mentioned last night playing the NYY under 10.5 and will probably add 1st 5 Inn under 6-120.
Floyd has been real good and I tip my hat to him. I think today will be a big test for him but wouldnt expect him to get rocked basically due to more LHB...Hughes was really only bad the 2 starts when it was freezing out @ KC and @ Boston . I mentioned I never saw anyone blow into there hands as much as he did so clearly in my mind it effected him. He is only 21 after all. He was solid vs Tor and Balt and expect more of the same 2 run 6 inn type deal....His big issue is getting LHB out which leaves Swisher , AJ and Thome as the big keys for him...
Also Emmel behind the dish ...even in a sweep game looking at NYY as they have regained there patience after the day off and it has paid dividends. Dont like WSox pen vs us and I think we have seen about 350 pitches past 2 days...:cheers:
Floyd has been real good and I tip my hat to him. I think today will be a big test for him but wouldnt expect him to get rocked basically due to more LHB...Hughes was really only bad the 2 starts when it was freezing out @ KC and @ Boston . I mentioned I never saw anyone blow into there hands as much as he did so clearly in my mind it effected him. He is only 21 after all. He was solid vs Tor and Balt and expect more of the same 2 run 6 inn type deal....His big issue is getting LHB out which leaves Swisher , AJ and Thome as the big keys for him...
Also Emmel behind the dish ...even in a sweep game looking at NYY as they have regained there patience after the day off and it has paid dividends. Dont like WSox pen vs us and I think we have seen about 350 pitches past 2 days...:cheers:
I lean that way but I had a huge play on them yesterday so I am gun shy. Big issue could be there pen Saitio and Broxton both went 1 + innings and labored .
Nice edge in Zona 200 away vs RHP and LAD 306 at home vs RHP which played huge into my thought process yesterday...
To be honest LAD lineup is just as good and more suited to face a RH and they have the better SP..the concern for me would be cclosing it..do lean over but odd I see 8s out there from 8.5...
Again no great feel for Sea v Balt but would seem Sea on paper has the edges and this game I like the over becayse we should see alot baserunners..
Probably SD later at home cause Young seems okay and he is two different pitchers home and away look at the 07 splits...SF couldnt hit at all yesterday consider myself lucky they won...gonna wiat till lineups but with taxed pens if we see 6.5 might go over but lean to SD more...
2nd game lee has been real good and Bannister has pitched well at home so I do lean under....
Just not feeling much late strong...probably play 1st 5 Under @ KC (maybe KC) and SD...gotta go play nall will ne back around 9:30:cheers:
I just got back from basketball myself. I would disagree with that because NYY has not played well so a sweep in Chicago would be great momentum and also great for confidence especially knowing Hughes is struggling ...
The way I see it there is no way I see as Hughes being worse then Mussina at this point and there is no way Floyd is better then Javy...tough to punt games unless you are coming off a nice win streak IMO...Girardi does not take losses well. Its been said he looks physical sick after losses (literally yellow)so I would assume the effort will be there until they have grown a comfortable lead and that is a long , long ways away...if it even happens
Just my thoughts on the subject...I didnt play NYY cause of the weather and I am not sure they get this game in...
I expect NYY to go on a nice run in the near future something like Chicago has done in the NL...:shake:
I just got back from basketball myself. I would disagree with that because NYY has not played well so a sweep in Chicago would be great momentum and also great for confidence especially knowing Hughes is struggling ...
The way I see it there is no way I see as Hughes being worse then Mussina at this point and there is no way Floyd is better then Javy...tough to punt games unless you are coming off a nice win streak IMO...Girardi does not take losses well. Its been said he looks physical sick after losses (literally yellow)so I would assume the effort will be there until they have grown a comfortable lead and that is a long , long ways away...if it even happens
Just my thoughts on the subject...I didnt play NYY cause of the weather and I am not sure they get this game in...
I expect NYY to go on a nice run in the near future something like Chicago has done in the NL...:shake:
Plus baseball is a game that really doesnt have benefits from emotional factors....basketball and football you can will your way in situations but baseball desire doesnt make you throw harder or hit better...Pettitte may very well want playoff revenge but all I need to know he is pitching well and is he is LH and that is enough to fade Cle ...
VK but what I gave you credit for is losing just ONE unit on what would be a bad day...me I get sloppy and over aggressive and can lose 20 in a blink and on a 500 afternoon or 60% day...So shit happens...I think you felt differently about the Philly total by the time it was about to start but I fully understand how tough it is to make a play and then say I just dont like it anymore...Pitt tough to see a clear angle in that game...I decided to say fuck it and play it after I passed yesterday...maybe they rally who knows bottom 9 lets go Bucs ! GL bro!:cheers:
I agree...probably will play it as well:cheers:BOL:shake:
Sweet 6-0 +10 units:cheers:
yeah ..I am kicking myself though cause I was well aware of the weather situation and saw how hard it was raining. Which is why I get pissed at myself like the Monday Under @ Fenway...if I simply just pass I save 2 units plus vig...probably a different outcome without the weather but me personally I should have known better and I am really pissed at myself...
How you are doing well otherwise today bro...
:cheers:
Oh and I like Ohlendorf's stuff but can someone tell the kid he is flying up way to early making it really easy for batters to pick the ball out of his hand. I knew there was no way he was surviving that inning throwing like that...dont mean to sound like a know-it-all but this shit irks me caused I played baseball for so long and a fairly high level...its not brain surgery...fly open early and you allow the batter to see the ball early and everything is going to be middle of the plate away...
Make that 7-0 in the NBA today for +11 units as Hous win the 1st Q SU covering +2.5! ...should have gone bigger on some of these...:cheers:
imgn
Pretty much a regular
The guy didnt even ump in the first game....wtf is going on..joyce listed as gm 1 hp ump and hes not listed as an ump in gm 2. so is it if you work behind the plate in gm 1 that you get gm 2 off ??
