Thursday i don't win close games Discussion

GWarner27

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
leans from the BOL open:
COL o10.5 -120
SD +122 (waiting based on the inexplicable Chavez love today)
NYM +141
CHC +121


on the radar:
MIN u8 -120
LAA -114
DET -101
KC -122
CHW u7.5 -125
 
White Sox are dead last in the MLB in wOBA and ISO during the L30 days, and during the L2 seasons the Bucs have cashed the under in the last game of the series at a rate greater than any other team in baseball.
 
austinhous said:
during the L2 seasons the Bucs have cashed the under in the last game of the series at a rate greater than any other team in baseball.
Click to expand...

Pitt is 5-4-1 to Over in road game 2s (4-1 Over their L5; 4-2 Over vs. teams w/losing records). This might be the last game of a series, but it's also a road G2.
 
Don't know if I was your lucky charm yesterday GWarner27, but I certainly got some by posting my plays in your thread yesterday, went 3-1, so I'll do it today as well if you don't mind :).

Cardinals/Twins Under 8 - Even
Braves - +112
Pirates - -130
 
Houston this season is 1-21 SU when scoring 2 runs or less; 38-7 SU when scoring at least 3 runs.

Colorado has conceded at least 3 runs in 28 of their last 31 home games.
 
Like the under in Atl. F5 especially. Miller is proving to be for real and Clay in June. Expect a pitchers dual, but bullpen concerns.
 
Pirates have given up last 10 games: 2, 0, 0, 0, 3, 0, 0, 4, 2, 0 and they have Cole going today. Anybody have Jeff's career numbers vs Pit? I expect they are good as recall Pirates struggles against him when with the Cubs.
 
C-MAN said:
Like the under in Atl. F5 especially. Miller is proving to be for real and Clay in June. Expect a pitchers dual, but bullpen concerns.
Click to expand...

Said it before in these threads, but when he got traded they changed his arm slot and it's been such a great move for him!@
 
C-MAN said:
Pirates have given up last 10 games: 2, 0, 0, 0, 3, 0, 0, 4, 2, 0 and they have Cole going today. Anybody have Jeff's career numbers vs Pit? I expect they are good as recall Pirates struggles against him when with the Cubs.
Click to expand...
Samardzija 3-4 with a 2.43 ERA in nine starts against against Pittsburgh. Current Pittsburgh team batting .236 over 144 AB against him. He's been smacked around in his last three starts overall though.
 
Owster said:
Samardzija 3-4 with a 2.43 ERA in nine starts against against Pittsburgh. Current Pittsburgh team batting .236 over 144 AB against him. He's been smacked around in his last three starts overall though.
Click to expand...
His last start was more promising, but he just had those two bad games back to back where Texas smoked him for 12 hits/9 ER and Detroit hit him for 1o hits/6ERs, his recent start against tampa was a 6 hit/3 ER performance with a no decision that should have been a win..

looking back he had one bad start in april, one bad start in may, and June started off with 2 bad starts, I like him to get his ish together at home today
 
Owster said:
Don't know if I was your lucky charm yesterday GWarner27, but I certainly got some by posting my plays in your thread yesterday, went 3-1, so I'll do it today as well if you don't mind :).

Cardinals/Twins Under 8 - Even
Braves - +112
Pirates - -130
Click to expand...

please do, but i'm 0-9 L9
 
Hammel has a 1.89 era and a whip of .839 in 7 night starts this season. But his starts at Cleveland haven't been that great nor was his one start with randazzo.
 
updated leans:
SD +149: Hamari
CHC +142: Randazzo
DET +104: Tichenor
MIN u8 -115: Nauert


on the radar:
CHW u7.5 -120: Bellino
 
Killer sport trends NOT some sort of Natural Law
JUNE 18, 2015
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SBB’S SDQL SU TREND OF THE DAY:
T
he Athletics are 0-13 SU against since Aug 24, 2014 at home
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start.
SDQL TEXT:
team=Athletics and H and p:W and p:QS and
date>=20140824
SBB’S SDQL PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:
W
hen Justin Verlander starts the Tigers are 11-0 since May
04, 2007 in the regular season coming off a loss where
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SDQL TEXT:
starter=Justin Verlander and s:SHF<25 and s:L and
date>=20070504 and s:SPT<100 and playoffs=0
MLB BIBLE ACTIVE TREND :
T
he Indians are 17-0 (+2,114) since 2006 when they used 8-9
pitchers last game and their starter worked no more than
seven innings.
SDQL TEXT:
team=Indians and season>=2006 and 9>=p:PU>=8
and p:SIP<=7
SBB’S SDQL CHOICE TREND:
T
he Cardinals are 10-0 SU on since Jul 31, 2014 when they
are off a loss in which they did not score more than one run
in any inning and it is the last game of a series.
SDQL TEXT:
team=Cardinals and p:RMAX<=1 and p:L and LGS
and date>=20140731
TODAY FROM SBB:
S
PORTSBOOK BREAKERS MLB won
its dog on the CUBS yesterday by
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T
he Marlins are 10-0-1 OU on (2.59 ppg) since Jul 05, 2014 and
on the road and after a one run loss

 
There are many good arguments for Min--- Problem is Cards are the best day team in baseball. They start off a 2-1 winner off a loss and are 6-1 on Thursday
 
Fister off DL.. Washington off 2 hits yesterday Archer record misleading like Max... both low ERA but records are rough
 
watching the last couple sd games might indicate why the line has been moving heavily against them...it's like they don't care...no one looks upset at all about striking out with risp or giving up a big inning...they just sit in the dugout and look content with taking it up the ass. they don't even look like they want to be playing baseball.
 
barmeezee said:
Fister off DL.. Washington off 2 hits yesterday Archer record misleading like Max... both low ERA but records are rough
Click to expand...

scherzer has been so unlucky, but his team's defense sucks and has directly caused the bad luck so i'm not sure if it's something we can dismiss
 
big_units said:
watching the last couple sd games might indicate why the line has been moving heavily against them...it's like they don't care...no one looks upset at all about striking out with risp or giving up a big inning...they just sit in the dugout and look content with taking it up the ass. they don't even look like they want to be playing baseball.
Click to expand...

the weak-minded OF plays a big role in this, i lost on them the last two days but really thought they fought on Tuesday getting out to a 2-0 lead then tying the game at 3 and 5 before Kimbrel foolishly walked speed and then got a little unlucky with a chopper up the middle getting through for the game-winner

Yesterday on the other hand was a blowout early, which i didn't watch, so I'm not sure what the deal was there though I do think they may give up if they fall behind 5-0 because they know they can't score enough to come back. Still think the number is ridiculous today, but I've been getting good numbers and still losing so maybe it's me
 
GWarner27 said:
the weak-minded OF plays a big role in this, i lost on them the last two days but really thought they fought on Tuesday getting out to a 2-0 lead then tying the game at 3 and 5 before Kimbrel foolishly walked speed and then got a little unlucky with a chopper up the middle getting through for the game-winner

Yesterday on the other hand was a blowout early, which i didn't watch, so I'm not sure what the deal was there though I do think they may give up if they fall behind 5-0 because they know they can't score enough to come back. Still think the number is ridiculous today, but I've been getting good numbers and still losing so maybe it's me
Click to expand...

the numbers have been ridiculous...and they did hit their way back into the tuesday game, but i still didn't see any energy...they just kinda loaf back to the dugout and sit on the bench after the at bat, there's very minimal chatter. yesterday there was nothing. the only guys that talk are murphy and roberts and their conversation looks like two california blondes figuring out what the market capitalization of google is.
 
Small bets on Cards and Houston. Also Cards under. Re the Houston bet when I looked at Colin in his last 4 road games they were all very reasonable and the last time he pitched vs Colorado he did very well. Houston is exactly 2 games ahead of Texas for the division and has a lot of tough road games ahead. They are clearly better and are playing much harder.
 
big_units said:
the numbers have been ridiculous...and they did hit their way back into the tuesday game, but i still didn't see any energy...they just kinda loaf back to the dugout and sit on the bench after the at bat, there's very minimal chatter. yesterday there was nothing. the only guys that talk are murphy and roberts and their conversation looks like two california blondes figuring out what the market capitalization of google is.
Click to expand...

so you're saying they arrive quickly at $1.2b
 
Owster said:
Don't know if I was your lucky charm yesterday GWarner27, but I certainly got some by posting my plays in your thread yesterday, went 3-1, so I'll do it today as well if you don't mind :).

Cardinals/Twins Under 8 - Even
Braves - +112
Pirates - -130
Click to expand...
I like all 3, GL today.
 
Padres first half and game. Graveman with ump 3.1 innings 18.9 ERA and his regular splits bad as well.
 
Kennedy was good vs Greinke in his last start, have to double check but I'm pretty sure SD 3-1 when facing sweep this season. A's poor day game record.
 
WILSON is 5-18 (-14.3 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

LAA .213 team avg in day games
 
Owster said:
TY, I'm almost convinced enough to add the under in PIT/CHW as well but I don't really like having two plays on one game, hehe.
Click to expand...

it's definitely nervewracking, but if you call the game right you go +2 and that's the name of the game
 
Yesterday there was a lot of love for SD and SF as I stated yesterday and both lost. All the trends and numbers won't change the fact SD can't hit, look awful while the A's bats are hot and playing their best ball of the year. SD is a terrible bet imho.
 
SEATTLE is 2-11 (-11.7 Units) against the money line in home games after shutting out their opponent over the last 3 seasons.
 
I think oakland has a bit of a letdown after yesterday and the padres are just awful right now... under 7.5 small for me
 
165yds said:
Yesterday there was a lot of love for SD and SF as I stated yesterday and both lost. All the trends and numbers won't change the fact SD can't hit, look awful while the A's bats are hot and playing their best ball of the year. SD is a terrible bet imho.
Click to expand...

Seattle was my best bet. I just try to hook into reality. Load up on Oakland. Live it up.
 
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