Thursday Discussion Thread

So this one might sound a little goofy and I’ll even give you guys a chance to talk me off it cause I even did a double take but it looks pretty strong to me.

Civale ov 15.5 outs -105 (might get plus at some point!(.,

Im no fan of Civale by any stretch but Milw seems to have the same ability cards used to which was dumpster diving at deadline for dirt cheap vet pitching then tweak him a bit and end up with a serviceable innings eating at worst, sometimes they end up being game 3 playoff starters (rarely goes well! lol)., anyways 1st off look at what Civale has did in Brews park since coming over! His surface stats are sick! I didn’t even bother deep diving info the metrics cause I’m sure they hate him, never bothers me fading that shit! Giants lineup not exactly murderers row, they have let a lot of below avg pitchers go 6 decent innings vs them! 15.5 is nothing, a few road starts in bad pitchers parks he got knocked out early but for most part he going 5+ in every start since becoming a brewer. It’s been like 10+ days since giants have scored more than 5 and that stretch is littered with 1-3 run games. You telling me this proud vet can’t go 5.1 or more and hold them to 2-3 runs?
 
2daBank said:
So this one might sound a little goofy and I’ll even give you guys a chance to talk me off it cause I even did a double take but it looks pretty strong to me.

Civale ov 15.5 outs -105 (might get plus at some point!(.,

Im no fan of Civale by any stretch but Milw seems to have the same ability cards used to which was dumpster diving at deadline for dirt cheap vet pitching then tweak him a bit and end up with a serviceable innings eating at worst, sometimes they end up being game 3 playoff starters (rarely goes well! lol)., anyways 1st off look at what Civale has did in Brews park since coming over! His surface stats are sick! I didn’t even bother deep diving info the metrics cause I’m sure they hate him, never bothers me fading that shit! Giants lineup not exactly murderers row, they have let a lot of below avg pitchers go 6 decent innings vs them! 15.5 is nothing, a few road starts in bad pitchers parks he got knocked out early but for most part he going 5+ in every start since becoming a brewer. It’s been like 10+ days since giants have scored more than 5 and that stretch is littered with 1-3 run games. You telling me this proud vet can’t go 5.1 or more and hold them to 2-3 runs?
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Sign me up
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Gonna catch up on some golf and tennis until arguably the ugliest match up of the day begins at 1pm.

Carpenter/Greene/Neto 1+ hit SGP +153

SF/MIL FF o4.5 -113

Seager 2 bases -115
TEX FF RL -140 @ MGM

Gray o4.5 Ks -142 @ FD
Gray o1.5 BB +115

KC/HOU FF o4 -130 @ MGM

Phillies FF TT o2.5 +100
Morton u17.5 outs -110

Crawford u16.5 outs -105
 
KJ said:
Eovaldi in a parlay with something, not sure what or how yet

Miami +105
OAK +114

Games tomorrow reek
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Eovaldi an interesting case today, kinda shocked they have him at 5.5 k’s -150 to over, I dunno how you make a case against that? He sporting a swinging strike over 13% this year which I thought was high for him, his only meeting be this scrub team was before deadline and he had a freaking damn near 20% swinging strike!! I dunno if cws replaced the vets they traded with kids who have better contact skills or not?

Another way to look here is they offering +130 on him to get 18.5 outs, would anyone be shocked if he went 7 innings here? I’d almost be surprised if he didn’t! The one issue is I don’t think innings and high k’s go hand and hand with him very often, sure he could punch one a inning and go 7 innings but several his higher k games got his pitch count up and got him out after 6 at most! It looks like cws did bring up some kids with way better contact rates than the guys they shipped out (namely Pham and Dejung off top my head), but they old heads still stuck on this shit team are petty high k guys. It quite the mix. Only 80 degrees and the wind blowing in a bit im super tempted to say it worth a shot rolling with the +130 on his over 18.5 out total. Maybe play that by itself then do something like ov 5.5 k’s/chisox Ff tt u1.5 kinda parlay?
 
peelpub94 said:
Gonna catch up on some golf and tennis until arguably the ugliest match up of the day begins at 1pm.

Carpenter/Greene/Neto 1+ hit SGP +153

SF/MIL FF o4.5 -113

Seager 2 bases -115
TEX FF RL -140 @ MGM

Gray o4.5 Ks -142 @ FD
Gray o1.5 BB +115

KC/HOU FF o4 -130 @ MGM

Phillies FF TT o2.5 +100
Morton u17.5 outs -110

Crawford u16.5 outs -105
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I don’t blame you but I don’t love that price tag on Sonny and I know 4.5 crazy short for him. Lineup out now, I’m looking at it trying to do a quick count on k’s I’m confident he should get. Think he be right there flirting w 4-5 after 2x thru lineup, the question gonna be is pitch count? Pads are pretty patient (obviously you agree w the walk prop!), I just don’t see him going longer than 5 innings, I think it puts that 4.5 number really close to a coin flip, -146 coin flips not my jam! I know you know the math!!

Personally I feel way stronger king gets 6 and his price way better! There 2 lefties in cards lineup im doubtful he can get but this kid in the cleanup hole has punched out 7x in 13 at bats and my guess is this will be best stuff he seen, im gonna chalk him up for 2k’s and not even blink, goldy could easily fan 2x the way he chasing sliders and can’t catch the high heat king throws! That 4 right there and I fully expect king to push 6 innings of work! God knows I’m wrong sometimes and not saying Sonny can cash but dump that bitch and add king ov 5.5, you don’t even gotta thank me later! (Just don’t call me names if im 😑 wrong!) Gl buddy
 
I have no god damn clue who these dudes pitching for either the A’s or Cincy! Think I’ll take the 3 wins I got in yesterday game with bido k’s, A’s Ff, and rooker h,r,rbi.. asking to guess right on this series 2x is pushing it! Ya’ll can have that shit, there ncaa football I gotta start workin on!! lol
 
1st glance I’m super tempted to play a 1st 5 under in zona but that takes some balls with way both these lineups hitting! I havnt capped it at all so these just top my head thoughts feel free to correct anything I say that isn’t accurate here!

The Peterson kid for Mets has been off the chain and he been facing a lot of good lineups! I’ve seen him pitch a bit and there no question his stuff plays, I think it just a matter of him trusting it and staying in k zone. His walks can be an issue, he typically pitches around them but you don’t wanna be giving snakes a bunch of free passes! On the year it says snakes smash lhp and while they still have a few guys that do in lineup I’d argue right this moment that are a bit hamstrung against a lefty with legit stuff with so many their best right handed bats on the shelf.

I know @KJ likes him and I’m starting to see why, I trust Nelson can go 5+ and not allow more than 1-2 runs. The & total is without a doubt taking a stand imo, I have no question every half wit retard that bets mlb is playing that over with way these teams swinging the bats! So much so they willing to give us a Ff u4.5 for the cheap! It could get burnt but I say this the highest percentage bet in this game. So give it to me baby, early start get away day for muts while snakes have a huge series with lad coming to town, think the pitchers rule the early innings here

Muts/snakes Ff u4.5 -110
 
That it for the daytime.

I do see a super fun pitching/game matchup in Houston w singer facing my boy brown but I don’t have time to cap now, I’ll prob try to squeeze another W out the o’s/lad game also but now im going to bet my day card then I’ll do quick cap on night games and finally open up the fucking ncaa card that I have literally no clue bout yet!! Pretty sure I talked bout every one but I’ll put them clean like on one post after I bet them. Gl everyone
 
2daBank said:
1st glance I’m super tempted to play a 1st 5 under in zona but that takes some balls with way both these lineups hitting! I havnt capped it at all so these just top my head thoughts feel free to correct anything I say that isn’t accurate here!

The Peterson kid for Mets has been off the chain and he been facing a lot of good lineups! I’ve seen him pitch a bit and there no question his stuff plays, I think it just a matter of him trusting it and staying in k zone. His walks can be an issue, he typically pitches around them but you don’t wanna be giving snakes a bunch of free passes! On the year it says snakes smash lhp and while they still have a few guys that do in lineup I’d argue right this moment that are a bit hamstrung against a lefty with legit stuff with so many their best right handed bats on the shelf.

I know @KJ likes him and I’m starting to see why, I trust Nelson can go 5+ and not allow more than 1-2 runs. The & total is without a doubt taking a stand imo, I have no question every half wit retard that bets mlb is playing that over with way these teams swinging the bats! So much so they willing to give us a Ff u4.5 for the cheap! It could get burnt but I say this the highest percentage bet in this game. So give it to me baby, early start get away day for muts while snakes have a huge series with lad coming to town, think the pitchers rule the early innings here

Muts/snakes Ff u4.5 -110
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My only thing is Peterson's xERA is over 5.. I still think he's getting lucky.. though he proved me wrong vs the Orioles big time.. AZ is the best hitting team in baseball in the month of August, 134 wRC+. That said, the Mets defense without looking feels like it's top 5 in baseball, Lindor is incredible, so maybe they are so adept at picking up all the grounders, etc.. IDK
 
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Man I can’t believe king was so shit, I was stoked 1st time thru even tho pitch count was high he got strike outs on Wynn and one the other lefties I didn’t count. No clue why he can’t manage to strike out that fat rookie hitting cleanup? He got goldy the 1st time and I was like “yep I’m a mfin genius!” Then next time around he let goldy hit a double! How the fuck he do that? He damn sure didn’t do it throwing him high fastballs! What he get cute and hand a sweeper? I only been listening on radio but not sure why he hadn’t been peppering top the zone with fastballs?? Sorry bout that one guys.

Looks like you gonna be good w Sonny @peelpub94 , I had it right 4 k thru 5 but I did not expect pads to be so sorry and let him keep his pitch count so low. Im sure he will get you your 5th! Im rooting for it anyways, cards just do what they do best and stranded the bases loaded so I wish Sonny would get you your 5th then pads would start knocking this mfer around!

Other than that looks like every other bet seems lovely! There like 1-2 ncaa games with spreads under freaking 25 tonight so I won’t be doing much w that card! Lol. Gonna cap unc/minny cause I have a few thoughts there then im gonna try to find us a few more winners tonight!!
 
peelpub94 said:
My only thing is Peterson's xERA is over 5.. I still think he's getting lucky.. though he proved me wrong vs the Orioles big time.. AZ is the best hitting team in baseball in the month of August, 134 wRC+. That said, the Mets defense without looking feels like it's top 5 in baseball, Lindor is incredible, so maybe they are so adept at picking up all the grounders, etc.. IDK
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I use the advanced stuff as I use everything else, they a tool but I often disagree with some the numbers they spit out. Lets be real almost every advanced metric punishes pitchers that know how to pitch and slobber over guys who can be super inefficient as long they have a high k/swinging strike rate. Far to often the analytics ignore the fact this a game played by ppl and numbers simply cannot tell the whole story, they can be very helpful but they can also be misleading, I’ve watched or pitch tracked a few of Peterson starts this past month and I disagree with the metrics. Obviously there could be some truth but like most things in life there cases for both sides. Far as snakes go I hear ya, I love that team and their offense. I know they been raking , I know on the year they have one the best ops in baseball vs lhp, I dunno what the numbers say lately but imo if you have walker, Marte, and Moreno go down you have significantly weakened your team against a good left handed pitcher. We see how it plays out. Betting Ff or any kinda under in a game involving 2 teams that both been taking a scary deal, certainly could go wrong but I felt like I had a good 65% chance to be 4 or less after 5 innings so getting that 4.5 for cheap there was no arguing the math for me.
 
Eovaldi easily cashed his k’s and the fat +130 on the out total!

Civale still pitching on that redic 15.5 number!! Lmao. They got me on king but I bitched slapped them with these 2!!
 
I can’t believe pads gonna let these garbage ass cards split this series. I often make fun of ppl that say such things so maybe I’m being silly, it is baseball after all, I just didn’t think pads would throw away 2 of these 4 against such a easy team to beat it’s not even like coming to stl to play 2 years ago, there prob 10k pr something at the game! Maybe cards are becoming such a shit show nobody showing up so it’s now like going to Tampa or Oakland with much worse weather, but no atmosphere and teams are unwittingly letting down as they come in expectimg a playoff atmosphere but instead it’s like they at a funeral.
 
peelpub94 said:
Cashed rangers, seager prop, mil ff over, can’t believe the sonny prop
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Had you told me he was gonna go 6 I woulda been on him with you. Felt pretty good bout my cap of him having 4 thru 5 innings but that fucked up, really pisses me off we both lost our k props in that game. Was the ump squeezing or did they just suck? I had gray getting 4 2x thru lineup, Mfer had that and went another pass thru and didn’t get 1? Crazy. I still dunno what the fuck king problem was? He got me 2 I didn’t even count, only 1 that I did! He had to be way off with location or something, the fact he didn’t strike out that far rookie who had fanned on 7 of 13 at bats is baffling! He even walked the Mfer?!?!?!?! I’d have thrown him heat right down the pipe before walking his fat ass! That shit error that should bed double play instead of leading to cards runs was another 2 strike hard hit ball by Arenado!! He must just not have had his stuff or location today, something wax wrong cause I know he could face just the fat rookie and goldy 4x and get 3k’s 80% the time!
 
There was just a monster rumble of thunder here. Don’t even think dumb shit weather man said anything bout ran,
Always thought this clown should have to bet on his forecast!

Anyways maybe a downpour would help pads? lol.
 
2daBank said:
There was just a monster rumble of thunder here. Don’t even think dumb shit weather man said anything bout ran,
Always thought this clown should have to bet on his forecast!

Anyways maybe a downpour would help pads? lol.
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Love thunderstorms. Haven’t watched much of that game, watched the Brewers feed and went directly into Mets feed.
 
peelpub94 said:
Love thunderstorms. Haven’t watched much of that game, watched the Brewers feed and went directly into Mets feed.
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Been running errands listening to radio broadcast. This old car I bought since the one I owe money on still fucking blew up has like a radio so old you can’t plug a phone into or get Sirus. I was gonna kill mysekf listening to local sports morons or the local rap stations playing all this new crap I don’t like! So I got sirus on phone and just driving around with headphones on, cheaper than putting a radio in this old mfer. lol
 
Can’t believe pads got as many errors as hits. Looks like the damn little pop up storm wasn’t big enough to even hit downtown, that was only hope and it already over at my house. I’m straight south the stadium so no chance it hits there next unless a different cell pops up. Im telling ya’l it’s like one the saddest things imaginable for baseball but I think teams are coming here and having letdowns cause there nobody in the stands and it feels like a A’s game other than fact that A’s team actually has a future and young players to watch! Never thought I’d live to see the day I was jealous of the Oakland A’s organization!
 
Man, I like Sanchez vs this Braves lineup but I can’t stand it when guys facing the same team in b2b starts. Morton got away without having to face Philly in the last series so gotta give him a slight edge there., wanna like Sanchez so bad even tho I been a tad down on him for the 2nd half, but then ya look back to last year and he was in same spot having to face Atl in b2b starts, he was great in start 1 just like last week, was not good in start 2. The only argument against that is this clearly is not close to the same Braves lineup! Where ya’ll land on this? Sanchez to punch out ov 4.5 so tempting.
 
2daBank said:
Man, I like Sanchez vs this Braves lineup but I can’t stand it when guys facing the same team in b2b starts. Morton got away without having to face Philly in the last series so gotta give him a slight edge there., wanna like Sanchez so bad even tho I been a tad down on him for the 2nd half, but then ya look back to last year and he was in same spot having to face Atl in b2b starts, he was great in start 1 just like last week, was not good in start 2. The only argument against that is this clearly is not close to the same Braves lineup! Where ya’ll land on this? Sanchez to punch out ov 4.5 so tempting.
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Only thing that scared me too, which is why I went TT over, instead of a side in case that happens. I just don't trust Morton against a veteran talented line up that is pissed off at home. Sanchez seems uber comfortable at home too. Kinda game I feel like Schwarber leads off with a home run.
 
peelpub94 said:
Trying to find ways to play this Reds game, ... literally nothing
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One my friends texting me reds reds reds, almost makes me wanna play A’s cause he a clown but im sticking w what I said earlier, I got 3 wins in gm2, im taking the money and running cause I have no clue bout either pitcher, if you made me play it I’d take the over but it a 100% a guess. 2 “bad” teams. 2 pitchers I have no idea about, some young kids who can rake and playing in a bandbox! The 10.5 total kinda screamed runs but surely there better bets left on the board!
 
Had another with pads. That 2 days in a row these asshokes have cost me well over 500 now losing to shitbag cards. Probably more like 1k cause think they were only thing that lost in a big parlay yesterday outside my normal 3-4 team RE’a in groups of 2. If you streaky as me those RR’s are a great way to punish books!
 
2daBank said:
Had another with pads. That 2 days in a row these asshokes have cost me well over 500 now losing to shitbag cards. Probably more like 1k cause think they were only thing that lost in a big parlay yesterday outside my normal 3-4 team RE’a in groups of 2. If you streaky as me those RR’s are a great way to punish books!
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They goto Tampa tomorrow, Perez likely vs Taj
 
peelpub94 said:
They goto Tampa tomorrow, Perez likely vs Taj
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I dunno wtf to do with Taj these days, he either hit a wall, lost his release point, or just straight broken. Ok bro that 2marro I gotta stop getting distracted running out of time!!

It’s crazy odd this Francis guy swinging strike rate hate gone way up since becoming full time starter, that usually goes the other direction! His k/bb rate isn’t as good vs lefties which a big deal vs Red Sox but other than that lefties have a lower ba obp, and slug! What you say you were doing w this game?
 
peelpub94 said:
Peterson pitching magic yet again..
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I just don’t think zona as scary vs lefties right now, they really need Suarez to be a dude when they face a lefty. Sad Grichuck is the guy, dunno if sad for them or sad yet another guy gets away from stl and turns out he can play baseball!
 
2daBank said:
1st glance I’m super tempted to play a 1st 5 under in zona but that takes some balls with way both these lineups hitting! I havnt capped it at all so these just top my head thoughts feel free to correct anything I say that isn’t accurate here!

The Peterson kid for Mets has been off the chain and he been facing a lot of good lineups! I’ve seen him pitch a bit and there no question his stuff plays, I think it just a matter of him trusting it and staying in k zone. His walks can be an issue, he typically pitches around them but you don’t wanna be giving snakes a bunch of free passes! On the year it says snakes smash lhp and while they still have a few guys that do in lineup I’d argue right this moment that are a bit hamstrung against a lefty with legit stuff with so many their best right handed bats on the shelf.

I know @KJ likes him and I’m starting to see why, I trust Nelson can go 5+ and not allow more than 1-2 runs. The & total is without a doubt taking a stand imo, I have no question every half wit retard that bets mlb is playing that over with way these teams swinging the bats! So much so they willing to give us a Ff u4.5 for the cheap! It could get burnt but I say this the highest percentage bet in this game. So give it to me baby, early start get away day for muts while snakes have a huge series with lad coming to town, think the pitchers rule the early innings here

Muts/snakes Ff u4.5 -110
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Good call, I just been laying in bed watching the game today. Thing with Peterson is he gets a lot of early pitch outs so the PC stays pretty low. Lots of grounders.
 
2daBank said:
I dunno wtf to do with Taj these days, he either hit a wall, lost his release point, or just straight broken. Ok bro that 2marro I gotta stop getting distracted running out of time!!

It’s crazy odd this Francis guy swinging strike rate hate gone way up since becoming full time starter, that usually goes the other direction! His k/bb rate isn’t as good vs lefties which a big deal vs Red Sox but other than that lefties have a lower ba obp, and slug! What you say you were doing w this game?
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I decided to lay off the Francis K for reasons you cited, plus I respect all the Sox lefties. Went with a Kutter under 16.5 outs prop
 
All for me tonight

Kc/hou Ff u4.5 -130

Bal Ff tt ov 1.5 -150

really short on time sorry for not much analysis.

I’ll pretty much pay to see anyone keep o’s under 2.

Just think both starting pitchers hold the edge in hou. Singer has had good success vs the big boys and not worried bout the bottom stros order. Love hunger brown but kc just not a high strikeout team so don’t wanna go there but I do think he limits offense. Think this a 2-1 maybe 2-2 game after 5.
 
KJ said:
Good call, I just been laying in bed watching the game today. Thing with Peterson is he gets a lot of early pitch outs so the PC stays pretty low. Lots of grounders.
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I gotta believe you guys a lot weaker vs lhp with walker, Marte, and Moreno out the lineup. Grichuvk been huge, that playin with him and joc prob equals one the most productive outfield spots in league the way Joc kills rhp and grichucj been smashing lefties. Thst need Suarez to step up. I remember there was a time when he crushed lhp.
 
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2daBank said:
I gotta believe you guys a lot weaker vs lhp with walker, Marte, and Moreno out the lineup. Grichuvk been huge, that playin with him and joc prob equals one the most productive outfield spots in league the way Joc kills rhp and grichucj been smashing lefties. Thst need Suarez to step up. I remember there was a time when he crushed lhp.
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Yeah lineup is going to look a bit different in the next couple weeks. Walker doing half game Saturday, Marte was bouncing around the dugout today and apparently Montero is showing no signs of lingering groin injury.
 
Man o’s have hit ball pretty hard several times in their 1st 6 outs but nothing to show for it. That ok, this kid isn’t gonna get away pumping fastballs at them the 2nd time around, just wish we could get few baserunners so we get more guys seeing him before end of 5th!
 
KJ said:
Yeah lineup is going to look a bit different in the next couple weeks. Walker doing half game Saturday, Marte was bouncing around the dugout today and apparently Montero is showing no signs of lingering groin injury.
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They deadly from both sides the plate with everyone healthy, Marte being a switch hitter is huge! Carroll kills righties, joc kills righties, the 3 guys not playing a nightmare for lefties. Might be most complete lineup around, and they take good at bats all thru lineup!! Pads are vulnerable to lefties or guys that get lefties. I don’t see how ya’ll not right there in nlcs again as long everyone healthy.
 
2daBank said:
All for me tonight

Kc/hou Ff u4.5 -130

Bal Ff tt ov 1.5 -150

really short on time sorry for not much analysis.

I’ll pretty much pay to see anyone keep o’s under 2.

Just think both starting pitchers hold the edge in hou. Singer has had good success vs the big boys and not worried bout the bottom stros order. Love hunger brown but kc just not a high strikeout team so don’t wanna go there but I do think he limits offense. Think this a 2-1 maybe 2-2 game after 5.
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It’s raining 💰

Hit everything but king k’s and pads. We putting on a smoke show boys, straight 🔥
 
bulldogs said:
Pads kill a 4 team 2nd day in a row.....FUCK
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I’ve been winning so much lately I hate to complain but yea, pads -+king k prop has cost me over 1k in parlays last 2 days! But I’m sure I caught some breaks in all the plays we been cashing! I’m not usually one to think any team can win in bases but I really didn’t think pads would give them 2 of the 4 game series. It’s whatever tho, can’t win them all, hopefully you still doing well anyways there been a ton of winners in the discussion threads! Be grateful for the W’s don’t trip on the one L!! That was like yesterday guy getting little mad bout them pulling skenes after 5 and 1 k short bet then we ran off 4-5 straight!! It baseball man, gonna take some tough losses from time to time. Look at way nats took care of yanks hot streak! It happens, just gotta trust the process, keep making good plays and long you mammagimg your money one play shouldn’t mean shit😎
 
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