Thursday Discussion Thread

peelpub94 said:
MIL/STL FF Over 4 -115 @ MGM
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Damn bro, I could be wrong but I think you be better off with Milw Ff total, I just don’t see cards scoring off Freddy P, that kid last night has such inflated numbers compared to his average stuff, cards had guys on base every inning and I still had to beg and plead to get 2 runs out of them! I will say the home plate ump wasn’t helpful, he was straight one sided trash the strikes he was calling for Milw pitchers were often low or 2inches off plate. That said Freddy p stuff is way better than that kids was, another problem in true cardinals retard fashion the 2 kids that just got called up and basically saved the game for cards are not in the starting lineup, this moron Marmol sent right back to all the same losers that havnt scored runs all month!! I been wrong before but I seriously think you gonna need milw to score 4!
 
Didn’t like a ton during the day, milw Ff outta cash, if Mikolas out pitches Freddy p against cards lineup I’ll pay to see it.

Wish I would have went back across river last night and bet the Ff under in oak, I knew that shit was gonna move, -115 fir u4.5 last night and was damn -160 today, I can’t lay that. But this kid Bido has looked pretty dang good, seeing how he came from the pirates organization im guessing in true pirates fashion he wasn’t getting taught anything useful, now on another team what the odds yet another pirates pitcher looks way better? (They like the cardinals with position players, they ruin them! They just got lucky skenes was already a finished product!). So the play for me:

Bido ov 15.5 outs -115

Also I’m ready to trust springs even tho his velo down he looks totally comfy pitching with his fastball barely touching 90, his control has looked better and better each start.

Springs ov 5.5 k’s
 
Then tonight I love the Stros kid stuff, I dunno if he will give up runs against o’s but I’m pretty confident he gonna get a bunch of k’s.

Arrighetti ov 5.5 k’s ev
 
I read while in pit the bido kid was throwing lot of sinkers which were getting crushed, think that long been a staple of pirates crappy coaching, they want their guys to throw sinkers! Looks like he throwing way way less of those and more of his change up that actually misses bats, what a concept! Not like rays offense is scaring anyone, appears to me A’s have been pretty content letting their young/inexperienced pitchers (bido like 27 or 28 so not young but think he came from some little banana boat later on) pitch deeper into games than a lot of teams would, as long as this kid is over the plate and not walking to many I think he can easily go 6 innings vs this rays lineup, 15.5 isn’t a big ask at all, he has went past this his last 3 starts vs better lineups!
 
i guess mariners shitbag gm thought firing the manager for the trash lineup he gave him will save his job? I’d love to hear this clown telling the owner how it the managers fault they can’t hit, “I went out and added a washed up Turner boss, I dunno why they can’t score it must be his managerial style!”” Watch out Astros. Now that the manager gone all these crappy players the gm signed are gonna rake any day now!
 
Good god it’s insane this crap brewers team has the biggest div lead in baseball. That is how bad the nl central is, guarantee these mfers get bounced right away, fucking clean hitter today has a ops under .700 and just stared at a 92 mph down the middle fastball to strike out with runners on corners. was he looking for a curve? Lol.
 
2daBank said:
Damn bro, I could be wrong but I think you be better off with Milw Ff total, I just don’t see cards scoring off Freddy P, that kid last night has such inflated numbers compared to his average stuff, cards had guys on base every inning and I still had to beg and plead to get 2 runs out of them! I will say the home plate ump wasn’t helpful, he was straight one sided trash the strikes he was calling for Milw pitchers were often low or 2inches off plate. That said Freddy p stuff is way better than that kids was, another problem in true cardinals retard fashion the 2 kids that just got called up and basically saved the game for cards are not in the starting lineup, this moron Marmol sent right back to all the same losers that havnt scored runs all month!! I been wrong before but I seriously think you gonna need milw to score 4!
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Yeah probably one of the stupidest bets I made this year lol
 
There goes brewers cleanup hitter going down looking to miles freaking Mikolas, somehow brewers found the only cat in the league who overwhelmed by Mikolas stuff to hit cleanup for them! I woulda thought maybe the manager give him a hint after he cost them a run in the 1st, like maybe try swinging! Are you seriously taking strike 3s against this guy? Why you even get up this morning? They should sit this clown on the bench and grab a 12 year old from the crowd and let him have a shot, I bet he fucking swings at least!
 
peelpub94 said:
Yeah probably one of the stupidest bets I made this year lol
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Bro, I cashed cards Ff total last night and felt like it was dumb, lol. The only way they have really scored this serifs ;besides the big kid from minors who smashed a bomb last night then Marmol sticks right back on bench cause he a clown!) is cause brewers have walked guys in! Freddy p hit a dude and walked a dudej last inning, then he got down 2-0 w bases juiced, he lucky cards player swung or he prob coulda walked a run in! It’s crazy milw a playoff team,, the nl central has gotten so garbage they shouldn’t get a team in just for winning that division!
 
No clue why I took Milw ff instead of cards ff tt under? I didn’t even think bout cause I just assumed a playoff team could score a run or 2 at the very least off mikolas! Wasting my time hoping for a damn push, wasn’t any better a bet. Lol
 
I couldn’t imagine being at park sitting thru this shitfest, one mediocre pitcher and one ok pitcher in a duel of mediocrity!
 
I’m all for pitching duels, I actually love them but only when the pitchers are actually dealing, not cause the offenses are just this bad!
 
I kinda feel like pads a tad overpriced, ever since I caved and decided to give Cesse his flowers after being a long time doubter he really hasn’t been all that great since then, go figure, lol. He been way more like the old inefficient Cease ever since that rain out game in Pitt, more walks, higher pitch counts,,one was in Colorado so I guess can be forgiven but one was in Miami. The problem is Sevi threw the most pitches he has thrown this year in his last start, then the bigger problem look at ever Sevi start following a 100 pitch outing! Not one of them has been good and the last start was 113 not 105 or less like most of them. Pads offense swinging the bats really well. One pitcher in a bad spot, one who hasn’t been very efficient lately. Feel like some kind of over gotta be in play here.
 
What a riveting 1st 5 push in stl. Both those loser teams can go fuck themselves, I’d pay more than I bet to get that last hour+ of my life back from watching that trash! Gotta be one the ugliest pitched 0-0 games in mlb history!
 
2daBank said:
I kinda feel like pads a tad overpriced, ever since I caved and decided to give Cesse his flowers after being a long time doubter he really hasn’t been all that great since then, go figure, lol. He been way more like the old inefficient Cease ever since that rain out game in Pitt, more walks, higher pitch counts,,one was in Colorado so I guess can be forgiven but one was in Miami. The problem is Sevi threw the most pitches he has thrown this year in his last start, then the bigger problem look at ever Sevi start following a 100 pitch outing! Not one of them has been good and the last start was 113 not 105 or less like most of them. Pads offense swinging the bats really well. One pitcher in a bad spot, one who hasn’t been very efficient lately. Feel like some kind of over gotta be in play here.
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Damn, I don’t play many under props for whatever reason but both starters total outs ov 17.5 juiced to shit. Can get +130 and +140 on the unders, I feel incredibly confident both starters not going 6 innings here, maybe one of them, not a great profit if it a split. I guess If I had to pick just one I’d say Sevi cause his numbers after 100+ pitch outings this year plus pads offense is tougher of the 2 I think. No lineups yet but pads can also throw a lot of lefty hitters at a pitcher and sevi ops allowed against lefties historically been much worse than righties and it bout 80 points higher this year. I think ya gotta take the plus money on Sevi under 17.5 outs, i like pads Ff tt over 1.5 also but it pricey.

Im more willing to wait and see w Cease, he pitched on the road for 3 straight, the 1 inning then rain in Pitt, party city Miami where who knows wtf he was doing, and coors, coming back home he could get back on track. While I started this saying the price felt high I also kinda understand it seems justified, I’m still not real interested laying it tho! I do like that Sevi total outs under 17.5 prop and I like pads team total over 3.5. I can stomach the -130 for them to score 4 more than the -160 for the 1st 5 ov 1.5. If I’m right and Sevi has a tough outing then I don’t think it will matter, they should cash Ff and game team total.
 
It still 0-0 in stl, Jfc I’d be so drunk and pissed off! Well there no chance I’d have went, like most smart fans I don’t support garbage! Lol
 
2daBank said:
Damn, I don’t play many under props for whatever reason but both starters total outs ov 17.5 juiced to shit. Can get +130 and +140 on the unders, I feel incredibly confident both starters not going 6 innings here, maybe one of them, not a great profit if it a split. I guess If I had to pick just one I’d say Sevi cause his numbers after 100+ pitch outings this year plus pads offense is tougher of the 2 I think. No lineups yet but pads can also throw a lot of lefty hitters at a pitcher and sevi ops allowed against lefties historically been much worse than righties and it bout 80 points higher this year. I think ya gotta take the plus money on Sevi under 17.5 outs, i like pads Ff tt over 1.5 also but it pricey.

Im more willing to wait and see w Cease, he pitched on the road for 3 straight, the 1 inning then rain in Pitt, party city Miami where who knows wtf he was doing, and coors, coming back home he could get back on track. While I started this saying the price felt high I also kinda understand it seems justified, I’m still not real interested laying it tho! I do like that Sevi total outs under 17.5 prop and I like pads team total over 3.5. I can stomach the -130 for them to score 4 more than the -160 for the 1st 5 ov 1.5. If I’m right and Sevi has a tough outing then I don’t think it will matter, they should cash Ff and game team total.
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I think you have locked in on this pretty damn well.
 
peelpub94 said:
I think you have locked in on this pretty damn well.
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Someone here a long ways back put me on to looking at pitchers pitch counts and noticing some have a tendency to struggle after 100+ outings. It just isn’t common for lot these guys anymore, now he off his most pitches all year, facing a team that not only swinging bats well but can throw 6-7 lefties at him it just feels insane to me anyone would lay the price for him to go 6 innings, stands to reason if I wouldn’t pay it maybe I should take the plus!

I do so hate under props tho, it so strange my whole life I’ve preferred and generally been better betting under totals in damn near every sport, I guess when I started playing props the inner square in me came out and I tend to almost only play overs, I do fine cause obviously im selective bout it but I swear every sport when I try dipping my toe in the under water the shit goes all wrong! Like Mfer prob throw a no hitter now! Lol
 
2daBank said:
Someone here a long ways back put me on to looking at pitchers pitch counts and noticing some have a tendency to struggle after 100+ outings. It just isn’t common for lot these guys anymore, now he off his most pitches all year, facing a team that not only swinging bats well but can throw 6-7 lefties at him it just feels insane to me anyone would lay the price for him to go 6 innings, stands to reason if I wouldn’t pay it maybe I should take the plus!

I do so hate under props tho, it so strange my whole life I’ve preferred and generally been better betting under totals in damn near every sport, I guess when I started playing props the inner square in me came out and I tend to almost only play overs, I do fine cause obviously im selective bout it but I swear every sport when I try dipping my toe in the under water the shit goes all wrong! Like Mfer prob throw a no hitter now! Lol
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I like SD FF RL -113 as well
 
peelpub94 said:
I like SD FF RL -113 as well
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Echoing this

I also expect Burnes to come hard tonight after getting blown up by Boston last outing. I know Bank likes the Houston pitcher, possibly f5 under there but I don't expect Houston to do a bunch of scoring tonight, at least early. Seems like the Balty pen has been suffering a bit lately so not really interested in the full game
 
KJ said:
Echoing this

I also expect Burnes to come hard tonight after getting blown up by Boston last outing. I know Bank likes the Houston pitcher, possibly f5 under there but I don't expect Houston to do a bunch of scoring tonight, at least early. Seems like the Balty pen has been suffering a bit lately so not really interested in the full game
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I just like him to punch guys out, I honestly don’t have a great idea on what he give up, I don’t think he getting run out of game in 2 innings and think he can prob get me 6 k’s in the 1st 12-15 at bats.. whether or not he walks a few and gives up a jack or 2 behind it is tough to say. I’m not sure if he ready to go to this atmosphere lock o’s down. You could def sell me easier on Ff, no way I’m laying that juice for anyone to beat Houston once they gearing up into playoff mode. They still have a couple holes in lineup but sounds like Tucker getting close, then think they back to holding the AL crown, damn team is just so good when it counts.
 
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KJ said:
Echoing this

I also expect Burnes to come hard tonight after getting blown up by Boston last outing. I know Bank likes the Houston pitcher, possibly f5 under there but I don't expect Houston to do a bunch of scoring tonight, at least early. Seems like the Balty pen has been suffering a bit lately so not really interested in the full game
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Baltimore pen is in complete disarray .. they are fragile as fuck right now
 
Holy shit, looks like the home plate ump is caught up in skenes hype, he will strike out 20 if he getting those called strikes! That crazy
 
Also not sure what the Sanchez k total was but pretty sure it's just another game where the Braves bats helped him get over
 
Holy shit, good damn thing o’s put Cowser in leadoff hole! No damn clue why he was the only guy Arrenghetti could punch out the 1st 2x around lineup but his 3 k’s saved the day!! I’d been pissed if I passed on stros to lose his k’s, I certainly didn’t think he pitch this well without more k’s but whatever I’ll take the W!
 
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