Thursday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Apr 27 Thu 2023

11:20 AM
951Miami MarlinsB. Garrett -L+1½
-130		+161O 8½
-112
952Atlanta BravesK. Wright -R+1 Markets-1½
+110		-175U 8½
-108
11:35 AM
953Los Angeles DodgersJ. Urias -L-1½
+100		-161O 8½
+100
954Pittsburgh PiratesM. Keller -R+1 Markets+1½
-120		+148U 8½
-120
12:05 PM
971Seattle MarinersG. Kirby -R+1½
-200		-102O 8½
-112
972Philadelphia PhilliesM. Strahm -L+1 Markets-1½
+175		-108U 8½
-108
01:20 PM
955San Diego PadresS. Lugo -R-131
956Chicago CubsH. Wesneski -R+1 Markets+121
02:45 PM
957St. Louis CardinalsM. Mikolas -R+1½
-166		+127O 8½
-112
958San Francisco GiantsL. Webb -R+1 Markets-1½
+146		-137U 8½
-108
03:07 PM
961Oakland AthleticsJ. Sears -L+1½
+117		+253O 8
-110
962Los Angeles AngelsS. Ohtani -R+1 Markets-1½
-137		-285U 8
-110
05:40 PM
963Baltimore OriolesK. Gibson -R-1½
+120		-145O 8
-112
964Detroit TigersJ. Wentz -L+1 Markets+1½
-140		+134U 8
-108
06:10 PM
959Washington NationalsT. Williams -R+1½
-120		+194O 8½
+101
960New York MetsJ. Lucchesi -L+1 Markets-1½
+100		-213U 8½
-121
06:10 PM
965Tampa Bay RaysS. McClanahan -L-1½
+120		-143O 7½
+105
966Chicago White SoxD. Cease -R+1 Markets+1½
-140		+132U 7½
-125
06:40 PM
967Kansas City RoyalsZ. Greinke -R+1½
-118		+171O 8½
+100
968Minnesota TwinsT. Mahle -R+1 Markets-1½
-102		-186U 8½
-120
07:05 PM
969New York YankeesG. Cole -R-1½
+110		-162O 7½
-118
970Texas RangersA. Heaney -L+1 Markets+1½
-130		+149U 7½
-102
 
Damn, cards play giants again? I’m sick of that series I feel like I’m having to work too hard to come up w plays! Lol. That price im actually tempted to play cards, webb only throwing bout 25% sliders and lot of sinkers so they might have a decent chance of hitting him. I dunno what to expect out of Mikolas, I’d think he be ok in this park but I have to look closer in morning.
 
Jfc, the rays get another series with the shitbag white Sox? Who the fuck made their schedule? They play one decent team then they get to go back to scrubs. I wish I had any respect for cws cause seeing McClanahan for 2nd straight start and fact they better vs lhp makes me want to play them but they screwed me twice in tampa having rays beat and blowing it. Stros really put a stop to rays offense, i wanna say Cease should be able to keep that going, maybe Ff or rays Ff tt under is the play.
 
Don’t like o’s at tigers seeing how this another series they just played in Balty so it b2b against same starters. I can’t imagine tigers gonna have much more success against Gibson this time, I doubt he strikes out freaking 11 again (has he ever did that before? Lol), but in that park with a wind blowing in they not gonna score much off him I don’t think. I normally don’t like going against a pitcher if he got rocked by same team In last start but I dunno how ya could feel good about Wentz here? O’s rake lhp and wentz a struggling one at that. I dunno wtf to do here.
 
Kinda surprised to see pirates got to Urias a couple times last year. My initial thought on this game was dead under, prob ff instead of game. I still lean that way but just didn’t expect that.
 
I really don’t see anything with Mikolas to suggest he all a sudden worse than years past? He been getting smashed by lefty hitters this year but again I don’t know why other than early season randomness? He has never had a huge split discrepancy, righties are smacking him around thus far also so I guess it still not, lol. Although lefties ops a good 200 points higher thus far!! I think this a get right game for Mikolas, for years he has been cardinals most consistently dependable pitcher, nothing special but a innings eater that has always been a QS machine. Nothing about his pitches suggest there should be this massive fall off other than the fact he isn’t locating them as well and he getting barreled up more often than ever before. I can’t imagine this continues, he should still be the guy cardinals can actually count on for 6 innings that give his team a chance to win. I’m gonna go out on a limb and say he still that guy and this a park and lineup he should be able to handle. I think he a guy who takes pride in his work and will want to be that dude who helps the team stop a slide when they could desperately use a strong starting performance. Wouldn’t shock me if mikolas gave them a above average start and maybe goes 7 innings of 1-2 run ball, he could make me look foolish for believing in him here but at this price im gonna roll the dice.

As I talked about above I think cardinals can get to webb a bit. His k;bb ratio is off the chain this year which of course gives him a incredibly shiny xfip which In turn I think creating some value here. I don’t believe webb has transformed to this any more than I think Mikolas has regressed this badly. Webb swinging strike is right in line with all his other years so why are the k’s up so much? Doesn’t make sense. He not winning games cause other things are out of whack the other direction, his hr/fb rate is way higher, his strand rate lower. So again xfip loves him and I will say he 26 which a age I often think great pitchers find themselves. Im just not sure that him? I think the truth somewhere in between, I don’t expect him to come close to getting his era in line w the xfip as many tend to believe, I actually think that will go up a bit as his strikeouts most likely come down. Most importantly for today while he throws a slider it isn’t his go to pitch and has never graded particularly great. the running theme is when we fade the cardinals is watch out for guys with very good sliders! They faced a guy yesterday who lives off his slider and the results were pretty predictable, he dominated every cardinals hitter not named Goldshmidt who had himself a monster game. That a great sign for cards as his power numbers been a bit lacking from last years mvp season. They really need to get Arenado going who is one the main culprits when it comes to getting dominated by low and away sliders, again not a pitch you would expect Webb to continually hit that part the zone with. I think cards offense has a fighting chance today, this 7 runs in 3 games shit is not indicative of what this lineup should be producing!

As expected the die hard analytics types are driving this line giants way, I love fading these guys as they have no imagination and think fip/xfip are the be all end all! These the dudes who will bet against a very good pitcher for 20 starts just waiting for the era to match the xfip, then after losing 19 straight starts will tell you “see regression” the minute guy has a bad start! I’m not joking. You can rest assured they pounding every Webb start while his advanced stuff is showing this sparkling! Give me the cardinals +135 or higher to avoid the embarrassing 4 game sweep!
 
I think the balty game just a pass, slight under lean for me: I’d be careful bout trusting the O’s too much today.
 
Fucj the atl game started faster than I was ready for. I had a few leans on that game too! Fish and Garrett k’s but I never even saw his number! Lol
 
If you got pads early I think you did good but no chance I’m playing them now that line has shot up almost 30 cents.
 
I have to wait for the electric co guy to get here, they coming to test out ac stuff and see if we qualify for this thing they got where if a new unit will save enough off the bill you get a new ac and your bill just stays same to pay for it. That be awesome cause our ac on mfin life support! It gonna die at some point and they won’t do it unless your ac works. Fingers crossed we qualify, Anyways shit takes hours apparently but once I get him whatever he needs I’ll leave him here with the old lady working from home but she can’t be bothered with whatever needs done so I have to get him going before I take off across the river! Long story short I’m probably not betting anything till the cards game!
 
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KJ said:
Yeah sucks if the number is burned early

Sitting at 5.5 now
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I dunno what it was pregame? By time I get over there who knows, I can get to it before he pitches 3rd but as I posted above I gotta wait on this electric company guy: shit really cramping my style today but it be soooo worth it if we qualify for a new unit! No way I don’t have to replace this 30 year old Mfer In next year or 2, this be great!!
 
2daBank said:
I dunno what it was pregame? By time I get over there who knows, I can get to it before he pitches 3rd but as I posted above I gotta wait on this electric company guy: shit really cramping my style today but it be soooo worth it if we qualify for a new unit! No way I don’t have to replace this 30 year old Mfer In next year or 2, this be great!!
Click to expand...
Yeah you don't want to wait for July to set in and it combusts

Very important to know an AC guy here in general. AC went out one day in June at the old condo and if I didn't know someone it was minimum 3 day wait. Fuck all of that, was miserable for the four hours it took to get my priority call answered.
 
KJ said:
Yeah you don't want to wait for July to set in and it combusts

Very important to know an AC guy here in general. AC went out one day in June at the old condo and if I didn't know someone it was minimum 3 day wait. Fuck all of that, was miserable for the four hours it took to get my priority call answered.
Click to expand...

I can’t imagine how freaking hot ya’ll places get if ac goes out with that sun beating down! Of course it so fucjing muggy and gross here I dunno if it much better? I had to live in the Mississippi delta for my 3 year stretch with no ac and managed, dunno why I’m such a pussy now? Lol.

I been holding out the few times we have got humid 80s for a few days so far. I just don’t wanna turn it on till we have to, lol. I have/had a great ac guy who a really good friend but he moved to lake of ozarks and started a business down there, he still comes up to visit ppl and if it something serious that really hurts the wallet I ask him but I feel bad bothering him so minor shit we have a guy but not a friend he better than most but far from friend prices! Lol. Like we had to get the A-coil thing replaced 2 years ago, I inconvenienced my friend for that one cause it was like 500 cheaper (at least), but last year kept having some smaller problem so used the other guy who was like I dunno 150ish a pop just for showing up!! Sucks.

It be amazing if we qualify for this, I dunno if we will, my brother told me about. He has a newer/nicer house than us and he didn’t get it cause his basement is dry walled but not mud and taped. That was a deal breaker, ours is half finished and the half is complete but I dunno if we make it far as insulation standards or whatever else it is they looking for? Hell, I’m crossing my fingers the damn thing works when he turns it on! Lol
 
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2daBank said:
I can’t imagine how freaking hot ya’ll places get if ac goes out with that sun beating down! Of course it so fucjing muggy and gross here I dunno if it much better? I had to live in the Mississippi delta for my 3 year stretch with no ac and managed, dunno why I’m such a pussy now? Lol.

I been holding out the few times we have got humid 80s for a few days so far. I just don’t wanna turn it on till we have to, lol. I have/had a great ac guy who a really good friend but he moved to lake of ozarks and started a business down there, he still comes up to visit ppl and if it something serious that really hurts the wallet I ask him but I feel bad bothering him so minor shit we have a guy but not a friend he better than most but far from friend prices! Lol. Like we had to get the A-coil thing replaced 2 years ago, I inconvenienced my friend for that one cause it was like 500 cheaper (at least), but last year kept having some smaller problem so used the other guy who was like I dunno 150ish a pop just for showing up!! Sucks.

It be amazing if we qualify for this, I dunno if we will, my brother told me about. He has a newer/nicer house than us and he didn’t get it cause his basement is dry walled but not mud and taped. That was a deal breaker, ours is half finished and the half is complete but I dunno if we make it far as insulation standards or whatever else it is they looking for? Hell, I’m crossing my fingers the damn thing works when he turns it on! Lol
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Yeah it's different. Can always play 18 holes in 110 degrees here, stay hydrated. Last time I was in KC mid Summer I had to cart in on the 14th because at 90 degrees and humidity I had to tap out. Dry 110 is much easier for me.

Still need AC tho to survive
 
KJ said:
Yeah it's different. Can always play 18 holes in 110 degrees here, stay hydrated. Last time I was in KC mid Summer I had to cart in on the 14th because at 90 degrees and humidity I had to tap out. Dry 110 is much easier for me.

Still need AC tho to survive
Click to expand...

Yea. I’d take 110 and dry over 90+ and humid as balls. I can’t stand walking into what feels like a wall of water, sweating before you make it to car! Shit sucks! Lol
 
It not funny man, our shit is so blank rigged with all kinds of random parts and duct tape holding it together! The year the A-coil went out before calling my friend (or meeting the trustworthy guy we got besides him now) I had some asshole off Craig’s list come out and he replaced the outside thing then tells me it the A coil! I was like Mfer you crazy if you think im paying you for a new/used outside thing If that wasn’t the mfin problem! He got all huffy and puffy and cut his out and left, lol. So my boy had to do a little rigging to put the old one back in! The cover for the electric stuff has a modified bucket and bungie cord system I created as a cover!! Lmao . Every year at this time I’m nervous! You think we be saving up for the inevitable but not really! Lol. This be a huge win! So huge im ruining my day and letting some rando Mfer poke around my house for 2+ hours which I hate!!
 
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2daBank said:
It not funny man, our shit is so blank rigged with all kinds of random parts and duct tape holding it together! The year the A-coil went out before calling my friend (or meeting the trustworthy guy we got besides him now) I had some asshole off Craig’s list come out and he replaced the outside thing then tells me it the A coil! I was like Mfer you crazy if you think im paying you for a new/used outside thing If that wasn’t the mfin problem! He got all huffy and puffy and cut his out and left, lol. So my boy had to do a little rigging to put the old one back in! The cover for the electric stuff has a modified bucket and bungie cord system I created as a cover!! Lmao . Every year at this time I’m nervous! You think we be saving up for the inevitable but not really! Lol. This be a huge win! So huge im ruining my day and letting some rando Mfer poke around my house for 2+ hours which I hate!!
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How's the water heater?
 
I guess might have saved me a headache, looks like they in a rain delay in atl. That most likely cuts garrett day short, talk about a shit way to lose!
 
Back to this shit

Took Kirby o17.5 outs -130 live small

Conservatively did it because he went pretty deep last go, early in the season he shouldn't be difficult to get to the 7th if the stuff is remotely on and Philly lineup isn't scary.
 
Kirby only 26 pitches through 2 innings, should be able to go 6 as long as he doesn't get shelled by a fairly anemic lineup
 
KJ said:
Back to this shit

Took Kirby o17.5 outs -130 live small

Conservatively did it because he went pretty deep last go, early in the season he shouldn't be difficult to get to the 7th if the stuff is remotely on and Philly lineup isn't scary.
Click to expand...

-130 a really good price for him to go 6, I always prefer his outs to k’s it seems.

This is taking forever and I already failed! I told this Mfer I wanted to leave to bet games! Now I know I have to fix a few things before it gonna happen anyways, now he changing freaking light bulbs! Lol
 
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2daBank said:
-130 a really good price for him to go 6, I always prefer his outs to k’s it seems.

This is taking forever and I already failed! I told this Mfer I wanted to leave to bet games! Now I know I have to fix a few things before it gonna happen anyways, now he changing freaking light bulbs! Lol
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Just did an internal hurl
 
KJ said:
Just did an internal hurl
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It actually wasn’t as bad I thought. He didn’t do the pressure test since there a few other minor things, I guess we in the “efficiency program” now, whatever that means, but after I fix these small things sounds like we got a pretty good chance!
 
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So the cardinals optioned walker back down. Holy fuck i hate this front office and manager! They think he the problem? He should start ahead of freaking Burelson every day!!
 
Kirby is so efficient

6.2 innings, 76 pitches and 7 k's

Mariners will have an offense sooner rather than later
 
KJ said:
Kirby is so efficient

6.2 innings, 76 pitches and 7 k's

Mariners will have an offense sooner rather than later
Click to expand...

Yea, he gets lots of quick outs. Im starting to like him more than gilbert. Even without Ray they pretty stacked at pitcher
 
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2daBank said:
Philly started that converted reliever cat didn’t they? What the fuck seattle?!?!?
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Both teams have to travel for games tomorrow

Seattle only has to go to Toronto but customs and all the BS

Philly has to go all the way to Houston

Makes sense they aren't exactly focused on this game and want to gtfo of Philly
 
KJ said:
Both teams have to travel for games tomorrow

Seattle only has to go to Toronto but customs and all the BS

Philly has to go all the way to Houston

Makes sense they aren't exactly focused on this game and want to gtfo of Philly
Click to expand...

Not like this the only day they struggling to hit. Mfers scored 5 in one inning yesterday but zilch the other 8 innings! They only scored 13 runs in 3 games vs cardinals crappy pitching! They got issues at the moment:
 
2daBank said:
Not like this the only day they struggling to hit. Mfers scored 5 in one inning yesterday but zilch the other 8 innings! They only scored 13 runs in 3 games vs cardinals crappy pitching! They got issues at the moment:
Click to expand...
Yeah it's April

Went to a game at Safeco or whatever it's called now in late June, was still daylight out at 10pm after the game!

Think that team goes as the clock goes, Seattle is so awesome June-September
 
Rare home team total over for me but LAA o5.5 +100 is a play

Would like over for the game but can't bet into Ohtani giving much up to the A's. Think Angels can hit this number before the 6th even.
 
All I played tonight

Cws ff +.5 .,., lord help me but I can’t help myself. I do think these guys seeing McClanahan again they can get me at least 1-2 runs, they usually get a few off him, they righty heavy so they should, I’m trusting that enough for Cease to at least work a tie thru 5 innings! Is that so much to ask? The Stros pitching did the hard part and cooled rays bats off, now they go to a chilly park with little breeze blowing in and face a guy who supposed to be a true freaking ace, I think true legit aces have more shut down performances than this guy so it time to show me! Your team needs it bad, be a ace, go out there and dominate a lineup that found to hit some struggles!!

Heaney ov 5.5 k’s., his swinging strike rate is way down this year which is worrisome but this a great matchup to fix that against a yank lineup that has all kinds of swing and miss in it. As a team they striking out 29% their AB’s vs lhp on the year. I assume Heaney still the same guy he been, if so he fans 6+ easily here.
 
I want to bet McClanahan strikeouts blindly until July, dude deals like a magician
 
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