Thursday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Aug 25 Thu 2022

12:10 PM
907Los Angeles AngelsP. Sandoval -L+1½
-146		+157O 6½
-125
908Tampa Bay RaysD. Rasmussen -R-1½
+126		-170U 6½
+105
01:20 PM
901St. Louis CardinalsD. Hudson -R-121
902Chicago CubsM. Stroman -R+111
03:10 PM
909Cleveland GuardiansT. McKenzie -R-1½
+155		-113O 7½
-107
910Seattle MarinersM. Gonzales -L+1½
-175		+103U 7½
-113
06:05 PM
903Cincinnati RedsJ. Dunn -R+1½
+125		+266O 8½
+100
904Philadelphia PhilliesA. Nola -R-1½
-145		-300U 8½
-120
06:05 PM
911Chicago White SoxL. Lynn -R+1½
-215		-110O 8½
-110
912Baltimore OriolesJ. Lyles -R-1½
+185		+100U 8½
-110
06:10 PM
905Colorado RockiesR. Feltner -R+1½
+155		+355O 7
-115
906New York MetsJ. deGrom -R-1½
-175		-400U 7
-105
06:10 PM
913Toronto Blue JaysK. Gausman -R-1½
-107		-164O 9
-105
914Boston Red SoxK. Crawford -R+1½
-113		+151U 9
-115
07:10 PM
915Minnesota TwinsC. Archer -R+1½
-135		+161O 8
-125
916Houston AstrosL. Garcia -R-1½
+115		-175U 8
+105
08:40 PM
917New York YankeesJ. Taillon -R-1½
-125		-210O 7
-125
918Oakland AthleticsJ. Kaprielian -R+1½
+105		+192U 7
+105
 
We see where the total is at wrigley but that feels like a high scoring game to me. Cards have knocked stroman around many times. Just feels like Hudson will prob struggle at wrigley, you need to punch the scrubbies out but Hudson doesn’t strike many out, let them make contact and they could take you yard, knowing Hudson those bombs will come after walks = crooked numbers. Goldy got night off, arenado got booted from game, cards offense been rather blah this series, they will score 5+ in this one, surely they will need it as who knows what hudson gives up?? I lean to cards laying the cheap price, they playing to well to drop 3 of 5 to scrubbies! Like the over better assuming we talking 9 or less which can’t imagine it more than that,,prob 8.5 ish.
 
Fuckinv O’s pen gave cws those late insurance runs or they coulda stole game 2. Kinda annoyed it just ev money and I gotta go against my guy lynn. Not sure I can play lyles vs him at that price? Hate to say it but almost lean cws ff here.
 
Tribe don’t hit lhp very well but they did just get after Snell, Gonzales clearly a totally different kind of pitcher. His pitch to contact style prob sets up well to limit the cle offense. Marco has not been good lately but I do think ya gotta give him benefit of the doubt here. I see no reason McKenzie doesn’t shine here; he should go 6+ minimum and only give up a few runs, lean to the under 7.5 and would be interested in tristen k number.,,
 
Philly -300 Mets -400!!! What the Fuck we supposed to do with that shit?!)!????? I guess just hope they come light with Nola or degrom k prop, no chance degrom number be low. Maybe we can get a 6.5 on Nola?
 
2daBank said:
Tribe don’t hit lhp very well but they did just get after Snell, Gonzales clearly a totally different kind of pitcher. His pitch to contact style prob sets up well to limit the cle offense. Marco has not been good lately but I do think ya gotta give him benefit of the doubt here. I see no reason McKenzie doesn’t shine here; he should go 6+ minimum and only give up a few runs, lean to the under 7.5 and would be interested in tristen k number.,,
Click to expand...

Reason I like full game u7.5 instead of Ff which usually all I play for unders is cause both these starters tend to go deep into games but Marco in particular can give some up along the way, feel like there could easily be 4 runs thru 5 innings but still go under for game with these guys ability to pitch into 7th and solid pens backing them up!! Gotta think cle Ff might be a ok play now that I say this!
 
Not a lot of appealing dogs on this card. I think twinks Ff my strongest dog lean at the moment. Garcia has been the weakest link in the Stros staff of late; archer can be sneaky good for 4-5 innings but that it so I wouldn’t want anything past the 5th inning but I think Twinkie’s can be leading after 5 in this one. I will prob play the twins Ff and the Ff team total over 1.5 to just play the offense vs Garcia and give myself a chance to get money back in case archer gets knocked around. Honestly might just be better to play the twins team total. I don’t think they winning the Ff 1-0 here, so they gonna have to score 2 to cash anyways imo. Might as well just make it one bigger bet on twins ov 1.5!!


I might be able to talk myself into A’s Ff but can I really? Lol. Not sure Oakland a great place for yanks to go w their struggling offense? Big park, nobody there or cares! Or maybe it just what they need? Lol. Beats me. Certainly think oak pitcher can hold yanks to a run or 2 thru 5, tallion hasn’t been very good but obviously A’s lineup way softer than most the teams he been giving runs up to. Once again maybe A’s Ff tt better but we don’t get the plus money on that. Let’s be real. I’m not playing this one! The fact I’m thinking bout just shows how weak this card is!! Lol


That all my initial thoughts for now., feel free to chime in on any these I’ve talked bout or anything else ya’ll looking at. Help me carry this page a little longer!!!
 
No pitcher props up on DK yet so nothing more to do now. Back to working on my week 1 ncaa football card!!
 
Surprised to see the total at 8 in Wrigley with the wind blowing straight out at 11 mph, especially with these two starters...

:pondering:
 
inZane said:
Surprised to see the total at 8 in Wrigley with the wind blowing straight out at 11 mph, especially with these two starters...

:pondering:
Click to expand...

Same here bro. Not even factoring wind I made it 9. My only concern is cubs handling their end, Hudson does a pretty good job keeping ball on the ground so doubt wind matters much for him. More about whether he walking guys then balls finding holes.
 
Debating between over or cards team total over but that hasn’t come out yet, I’d assume 4.5 tho.
 
inZane said:
Surprised to see the total at 8 in Wrigley with the wind blowing straight out at 11 mph, especially with these two starters...

:pondering:
Click to expand...

Glad I bought it down to 7*-130 when I first saw it, because my site took it down for a while.

They just put it back up at over 9* -120.

Now of course I'm wishing I'd have bet the max...
 
inZane said:
Glad I bought it down to 7*-130 when I first saw it, because my site took it down for a while.

They just put it back up at over 9* -120.

Now of course I'm wishing I'd have bet the max...
Click to expand...

At least you got some on it! One the downfalls of playing at brick and mortar im just heading there now so sounds like that game off my card, lol, fuck. Ill prob still play cards team total if it reasonable..wonder why they came so low w it in 1st place? There no way any numbers they use coulda spit that out!!
 
That said last week when Rockies were here if you recall cards totals were curiously low that series also, they were setting totals like aces were pitching and last I checked cards and rox really don’t have any of those!!
 
2daBank said:
At least you got some on it! One the downfalls of playing at brick and mortar im just heading there now so sounds like that game off my card, lol, fuck. Ill prob still play cards team total if it reasonable..wonder why they came so low w it in 1st place? There no way any numbers they use coulda spit that out!!
Click to expand...

The only thing I could figure is they left it up from when they post the lines yesterday before the weather reports came out today.

My site usually doesn't post Wrigley totals until well into the morning, so I'm glad I saw it and the conditions.

Hopefully, it'll cash...
 
inZane said:
The only thing I could figure is they left it up from when they post the lines yesterday before the weather reports came out today.

My site usually doesn't post Wrigley totals until well into the morning, so I'm glad I saw it and the conditions.

Hopefully, it'll cash...
Click to expand...

Yea I was surprised how early it was up but honestly I think it shoulda been 8.5-9 without even factoring wind.
 
Ended up playing

Cards tt ov 4.5
Twins Ff tt ov 1.5/Ff ml
Gausman ov 5.5 k’s
McKenzie ov 5.5 k’s

Think that bout it for the day. All over niners 1st half in the preseason gm
 
inZane said:
Good luck Bank!

:cheers3:
Click to expand...

To you as welll.

Quick question, when you played the over 8 did they have team totals out on it yet? I’m assuming if so cards was still 4.5 so where the hell they add the extra run from? Lol. Obviously they couldn’t have had cubs and cards both 4.5 on a 8 total!! But now they are both 4.5 with more juice to cards over. I actually got that just in time cause juice has jumped another 25 cents since I played it!!
 
2daBank said:
To you as welll.

Quick question, when you played the over 8 did they have team totals out on it yet? I’m assuming if so cards was still 4.5 so where the hell they add the extra run from? Lol. Obviously they couldn’t have had cubs and cards both 4.5 on a 8 total!! But now they are both 4.5 with more juice to cards over. I actually got that just in time cause juice has jumped another 25 cents since I played it!!
Click to expand...
No they usually don't post team totals on my site until about mid-morning
 
inZane said:
No they usually don't post team totals on my site until about mid-morning
Click to expand...

Right on, I didn’t have it up either so was just curious since they came earlier w the total than usual for a wrigley game. I remember at beginning this season they had one day with a overnight on a cubs total and thought “oh shit, if they have the guts to do this could be some insane value and chances to hammer middles!” Unfortunately it was just a 1 off tho and hadn’t seen it again till today.
 
2daBank said:
Right on, I didn’t have it up either so was just curious since they came earlier w the total than usual for a wrigley game. I remember at beginning this season they had one day with a overnight on a cubs total and thought “oh shit, if they have the guts to do this could be some insane value and chances to hammer middles!” Unfortunately it was just a 1 off tho and hadn’t seen it again till today.
Click to expand...
My site has it up to 10- 110 right now
 
Wow. Degrom k prop is 9.5! I knew they wouldn’t miss on him, lol. They opened Nola plus money on 7.5, I thought bout it but apparently others bet it cause he -125 to the over now, no way would I play it there. Not that it can’t or won’t cash, just no value as I think it kinda a toss up so paying juice no bueno for me. Understand why someone hit the plus money. I’m a big fan of plus money coin flips!
 
inZane said:
My site has it up to 10- 110 right now
Click to expand...

Wow. Kinda mad I didn’t grab some 9 but figure cards gonna have to get 5 to push it over anyways. It did bum me out not getting some of cubs against hudson but truth be told I’m not sure the wind should effect his game much as I believe he still sports one the better ground ball rates in the league, I fade him cause his walks more than anything. At some point with you having o7.5 gotta think bout middle don’t ya? Or just be happy with the strong percentage play? Don’t get greedy!
 
2daBank said:
Wow. Kinda mad I didn’t grab some 9 but figure cards gonna have to get 5 to push it over anyways. It did bum me out not getting some of cubs against hudson but truth be told I’m not sure the wind should effect his game much as I believe he still sports one the better ground ball rates in the league, I fade him cause his walks more than anything. At some point with you having o7.5 gotta think bout middle don’t ya? Or just be happy with the strong percentage play? Don’t get greedy!
Click to expand...
I didn't play enough to think about fucking around with a middle. Maybe if they jump out in the first inning or so and they post a live total at 12 or higher I might consider it
 
inZane said:
I didn't play enough to think about fucking around with a middle. Maybe if they jump out in the first inning or so and they post a live total at 12 or higher I might consider it
Click to expand...

I’m always torn on whether to try them or not. Pisses me off something serious when I do it and it goes over both numbers, like why didn’t I just be happy I got such a good number! I can handle losing that more than giving some back w the middle, but sometimes my greediness or wanting to show off how smart I am gets the better of me! Lol. Let’s hope cards jump all over stroman and score 7-8 in 1st couple innings!! They kinda been all or nothing this week.
 
Arenado out of lineup today, don’t love that but I figured they were gonna get him/goldy each a day around end the zona series. Gets us another lefty in against Stroman, they have bout 60 point higher ops vs him that righties, might be ok, lineup just don’t look as sexy with Dickerson hitting 4th behind goldy, lol.
 
This cards team total over 4.5 might be the 1st full game tt I have played all year, after my guy @ScopeY introduced me to those 1st 5 team totals early in the year I have grown super fond of those over the full game. I just felt like with cards offense having these big innings and lot of nothing innings lately it made more sense to give them the full 9 to get it done, and not like cubs pen scares me!!
 
2daBank said:
This cards team total over 4.5 might be the 1st full game tt I have played all year, after my guy @ScopeY introduced me to those 1st 5 team totals early in the year I have grown super fond of those over the full game. I just felt like with cards offense having these big innings and lot of nothing innings lately it made more sense to give them the full 9 to get it done, and not like cubs pen scares me!!
Click to expand...
You know it's all about the pen and only a couple scare me. Then whatever Tampa does freaks me out.
 
KJ said:
You know it's all about the pen and only a couple scare me. Then whatever Tampa does freaks me out.
Click to expand...

For most part I just prefer avoiding pens so I don’t have to put all the extra work into capping them plus trying to determine which guys the manager will actually use!! Even if it takes away many bad pens, the tail end of a guys start where he often more vulnerable, and the chance for the redic extra inning ghost runners which a bunch of runs waiting to happen!! With all that I still just love those 1.5 and 2.5 Ff numbers where it lineup vs the one pitcher to cap! The other exception I tend to make is when a team throwing a opener, I much rather have full game then as you know you gonna get 4-5 or more relievers so want a crack at as many as possible and not so much the 1st guy they use!!!
 
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Before getting into the Ff team totals, since the pen rule changes and the extra inning change my rule of thumb was unders bet 1st 5, overs bet full game. The team totals just different for me tho, maybe just cause that 1.5 number in particular, just takes my favorite saying, bloop and a blast to cash!!
 
2daBank said:
Before getting into the Ff team totals, since the pen rule changes and the extra inning change my rule of thumb was unders bet 1st 5, overs bet full game. The team totals just different for me tho, maybe just cause that 1.5 number in particular, just takes my favorite saying, bloop and a blast to cash!!
Click to expand...
First 6 would be so much better than first five. Teeth of the order get their 3rd ABs in general in the 6th
 
KJ said:
First 6 would be so much better than first five. Teeth of the order get their 3rd ABs in general in the 6th
Click to expand...

There was that one stretch where it was Ff total or ml where my team didn’t do shit thru 5 then went nuts in 6th!! Shit drove me crazy but it was pretty short lived. In a perfect world if I’m on the over the top/middle part lineup gets to see pitcher the 3rd time in 5th! 5th does seem to have a lot of drama! Could always live bet the 6th inning if lose the Ff and you have the right guys coming up in 6th!
 
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2daBank said:
There was that one stretch where it was Ff total or ml where my team didn’t do shit thru 5 then went nuts in 6th!! Shit drove me crazy but it was pretty short lived. In a perfect world if I’m on the over the top/middle part lineup gets to see pitcher the 3rd time in 5th! 5th does seem to have a lot of drama! Could always live bet the 6th inning if lose the Ff and you have the right guys coming up in 6th!
Click to expand...
It's always crossed my mind but are you comfortable compounding a poor bet after it loses or just take the pounding and move on?
 
I never pay attention but to find the Ff team totals I gotta scroll down past a bunch of other bets and I feel like there a option for 3 innings thru 7 innings (as in 3rd-4th-5th-6th- or 7inning game/results).
 
KJ said:
It's always crossed my mind but are you comfortable compounding a poor bet after it loses or just take the pounding and move on?
Click to expand...

Depends how it going and/or how strongly I feel/felt about it in 1st place. There have def been times (mostly football games tho) where I’m sure I’m right and keep firing and totally bury myself! Lol. times like those it nice not having the live option!! Im gonna have that much more during football tho cause I’m either gonna figure out the proxy shit or at minimum be hanging out at casino a lot more during games now that they have the sports bar/lounge area open!!

There def been times where it worked out in my favor also and I get initial loss back and then some. I just remember the self burials much more vividly!!
 
All in all I think I’m better off not messing with live. I think I’ve made great strides the last year or 2 with my discipline but not sure I’m to the point i could control myself and be selective with the few and far between times I see a live bet I love and know is the right play!!! Could I actually avoid anything and everything but those times? I’m not sure?
 
But then I see guys like @HUNTisLIVE who just crush it live and I get little jelly! Not sure that could be me tho; knowing your strengths and weaknesses and playing to the good and avoiding the latter I think is just as important as anything!!
 
So they cashed the Ff over already, now they prob stall for next 5-6 innings and I’ll be pissed I’m sweating the full game over 4.5! Lol
 
Vap'sBack said:
-400 + teams are 2-6 this season...
Click to expand...

That Feltner guy not very good but he has had 2-3 starts where he went 6+ innings and only allowed a run, he gives that kinda effort and who knows? Mets have cooled off a bit from when they were running super hot. I think I rather take some runs and less plus money but certainly worth a play in one way or another imo.
 
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