Thursday Discussion/Thoughts

reNew Orleans

reNew Orleans

Clubbin' with Rasual Butler
<table border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td colspan="7" class="blk-title">MLB Baseball - Thu 6/21</td> </tr> <tr class="wht-title" bgcolor="#16177c"> <td colspan="3">Game</td> <td nowrap="nowrap">Run Line</td> <td nowrap="nowrap">Money Line</td> <td nowrap="nowrap">Total Runs</td> <td>More </td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Thu 6/21</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">951</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Chicago Cubs
T. Lilly</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +126 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-124 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 10.5 -105 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 11:05 AM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">952</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Texas Rangers
V. Padilla</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -136 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+116 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 10.5 -105 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Thu 6/21</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">953</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">New York Yankees
R. Clemens</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 -114 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-182 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 10.5 +100 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 12:05 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">954</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Colorado Rockies
R. Lopez</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 +104 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+174 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 10.5 -110 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Thu 6/21</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">955</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Baltimore Orioles
E. Bedard</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -221 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+103 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 7.5 +107 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 12:35 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">956</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">San Diego Padres
D. Wells</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +201 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-111 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 7.5 -117 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Thu 6/21</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">957</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Los Angeles Dodgers
C. Billingsley</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -171 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+125 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9 +102 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 04:05 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">958</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Toronto Blue Jays
S. Marcum</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +161 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-133 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9 -112 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Thu 6/21</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">959</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Pittsburgh Pirates
J. Van Benschoten</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -121 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+180 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9 +106 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 07:05 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">960</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Seattle Mariners
F. Hernandez</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +111 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-191 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9 -116 </td></tr></tbody></table>

Umpires:

CHC/TEX - Hoye
NYY/COL - Reynolds
BAL/SD - Froemming
LAD/TOR - Kellogg
PIT/SEA - Hallion


Post your thoughts and discuss plays here :shake:
 
Being a Orioles fan... i remember Lopez pitchin against the Yankees and doing well for the most part... I wouldnt be quick to jump on the Yanks or the OVER either... I may play medium on the UNDER personally.

Interesting matchup with Bedard against Wells.. O's suck against lefties I wouldnt imagine they score more than 3 or 4 in that game. might play a prop
 
Man on Fire said:
Will Clemens be able to pitch in the thin air, he seems a lot fatter now or does that really matter.
Click to expand...

lol what? I think he'll pitch fine. I do think there is some value on the Rockies/under.. agree with barm on that total. I remember him having some good games vs the Yanks as well. He's been solid this year too.

*Damon should return tomorrow
 
it is a scary bet as Lopez is kinda terrible .. he throws fatty pitches and the yanks could jump on him for a few
 
What do you guys think about the Cubs/Rangers - spread and total ? I look for the Cubs bats to reawaken tomorrow afternoon...
 
Green, I hear you on the bullpen gripes. I have gotten my fair share of good breaks, but it is the bad ones I remember the most.

FOr tomorrow's card, this is how I am approaching it:

Cubs/Rangers: no way I am laying chalk on the cubs on the road, and also no way I can take Padilla at the short dog price. I am slowly realizing "getaway days" are the bane of my existence. Because of my schedule, I am never able to check lineups to see if a key bat is out. Thus I almost always miss a key player getting some rest. Not saying it's going to happen here, just came to mind as I was thinking about this game.

Yankees/ Rox: Yankees almost always equal an auto pass for me. Much like the Reds and Cards, I just can never figure this team out. Maybe it is a personal hatred for the Bombers, but I seem to always be on the wrong side when I bet this team. The Colorado bats have been very hot of late, so if anything, I would have to say ROx here, and the over would be my second favorite bet.

O's/ Pads: This is one that grabs my interest early. But again, I have to wonder who will sit for either team. Maybe noone, but I have gotten screwed so many times, it immediately comes to mind. They throw a total on a game in which Wells pitches at 7.5. Really, Bedard is good, and wells used to be, but given the splits for Bedard on the road, and the recent appearance of the Oriole bats, this one is too low. I also like the O's as a side here. Anytime I can get a really good pitcher at +money, I am looking at it. Eric's road ERA concerns me, but he appears to get more wins when on the road. Both are plus money, and both look solid to me. Probably will play them both.

Dodgers/Toronto: THe last six Marcum has pitched, the blue birds have won. The Dodgers throw a relief pitcher who is very good at what he does, that being relief, but he could be out early if the Jays bats stay live. lean Toronto.

Pit/ Seattle: I was able to get down of Jeff's first win of the season. I didn't post it, I was not home, but I talked about it in my thread yesterday. Felix hasn't been the same since his injury, but I am not about to fade him with the talent Pitt is throwing out there.

That's my thoughts on the card. Not real stat heavy, and lots of opinions, but that is how I begin any breakdown of the card. Comments welcome.



Tiffany fallon is on Best Damn Sports Show as I type. WHo is she, she's gorgeous!
 
posting my plays here, because I don't want to start a new thread.

Balt +108
Balt ov 7.5 +110

both @ 5dmes
 
For those who care

The last 32 NL games have gone Over to the tune of 25-6-1 (78.1%)

The last 24 AL games have gone Over to the minor tune of 15-9 (62.5%)
 
Last edited:
And...

Of the last 35 NL games..

27 have been decided by 3+ run margins (77.1%)
8 have been decided by 1-2 run margins (22.9%)

It seems interleague play isnt producing nailbiters, for the most part
 
The Cardinals have been outscored 54-20 in the first inning

White Sox DH Jim Thome missed his second straight game with back spasms. Thome said his back was improving and hoped to be ready to play in Friday' series opener against the Cubs

Tigers C Ivan Rodriguez left his game with one out in the bottom of the fourth with cramps in his right hamstring. He is day-to-day.

Washington RHP Jason Bergmann allowed three hits and one run Wednesday night in a rehab start for Columbus. He will return to the Nationals' rotation Tuesday against Atlanta.

CF Johnny Damon will start Thursday. He's been bothered by a strained abdominal muscle that has the Yankees considering putting him on the DL for the first time in his career

Seattle is going to start rookie Ryan Feierabend, the owner of a June 3 win, on Friday against Cincinnati instead of Cha Seung Baek.

The Padres obtained C Michael Barrett and $1.5 million from the Chicago Cubs for backup C Rob Bowen and minor league OF Kyler Burke. Manager Bud Black said Barrett will start in Thursday afternoon's series finale against the Orioles.

The Angels recalled LHP Joe Saunders from Triple-A Salt Lake after the game, and said he'll pitch Friday night against Pittsburgh.

Astros reliever Chad Qualls was suspended for three games and fined $3,000 for throwing a baseball into the stands at Angel Stadium in frustration Monday night. He asked the players' union to appeal the penalty, meaning he cannot be disciplined until after a hearing is held and the appeal is decided.
 
barmeezee said:
Being a Orioles fan... i remember Lopez pitchin against the Yankees and doing well for the most part... I wouldnt be quick to jump on the Yanks or the OVER either... I may play medium on the UNDER personally.
Click to expand...


Yes, he has great numbers against the Yanks. 6.02 ERA for example.

Abreu .308 (3/14, 2 double and 1 hr)
Cabrera .364 (4/11, 1 hr)
Cairo .357 (5/14, 1 double and 1 triple)
Damon .313 (20/64, 7 double and 4 hr)
Jeter .446 (25/56, 2 double and 4 hr)
A-Rod .289 (13/45, 2 double and 4 hr)


Yankees bats will wake up and destroy Lopez.
 
the odds are ridiculous though. Clemens has already shown he's mortal, the bats won't ALWAYS wake up for him, and Colorado are sizzling hot at the moment, +1,5 @2.10 is tempting. On the other hand, if they light him up, it's useless...

Anyways I can't back the Yanks here.
 
Still cannot give a good writeup due to a failure of service by Mohave az.com but will give a little more detail. Lopez lifetime is 10-9 vs Yanks. 8 bad starts, 8 high quality starts and 3 in the middle. This season he has thrown 40 and 1/3rd innings and given 13 runs, 7 walks and 22 strikeouts going 6-1. Clemens one of the great pitchers has had 2 starts this season and both were at home vs teams that were playing bad. He went 12 and 1/3rd innings and gave up 5 runs going 1-1 with 15 strikeouts and 3 walks. Not a bad showing at all. He is 45 years old and a righthander and what we can expect tomorrow is a ? but I would expect 6 innings and about 3 runs. Last 20 games vs righthanders Colorado is 16-4 and have won 7 staight against them at home. I believe Francis went 7 innings so with that and a large lead the Colorado pen should be in fine shape.
What we have is Lopez pitching very successfully and at a high level with a team that has been dominant recently both at home and on the road who are legitimate playoff contenders facing a Yankee team that has mostly flourished recently at home vs weak and slumping teams. Very simply in my view the wrong team is the listed favorite tomorrow. The lowest reasonable line should be Colorado minus about 15 to 20 cents. You can get around 70 cents making this a trememdous value. I run into a lot of people that worry about losing games. That has never meant much to me. What I always fear is just making bad bets or missing good ones. There is no Earthly doubt that playing the Yanees would be a terrible bet and there is also no reasonable doubt that not betting Colorado today would be a tremendous mistake. Good Night and GL
 
also...
i forget the dude's name...but the ump in the Angel/Astro game today is a piece of work. one, he's psycho...and needs to be put in his place. two, he's got a very tight strike zone...most of the time, as he was a bit inconsistent too. w/out rememebring the name, the retard has gotta be an over umpire. plus, he's got a huge chip on his shoulder...and looks like one who's jsut looking for people to toss outta the game.
 
lastly...

haven't capped anything in a few days. jsut too busy at work to spend the time. but at first glance, i'd have to say the BJs are the best play on the board.

billingsley has been getting limited work outta the pen this year. dodgers have been under-performing all year vs RHPs. and i was at the game in LA a week plus ago, where Marcum completely shut them down...winning the thing 1-0 on a Stairs HR.

it was boring as fuck...but at no time was Marcum even in trouble.
 
talked myself into it...

billingsley hasn't thrown over 3 innings in the longest time. and the dodgers are a pathetic interleague team.
 
Tuck, I'm glad we agree. :shake: I might get out of my break shell only to make a bet on the Rockies here. Still pondering a bit on that one though, but the value is immense.
 
Cubs/Rangers
-Padilla hasn't lasted more than 5.2 innings in his last 6 starts. Cubs should have no problem hitting him and tthink they should Win.
-Lilly really took advantage of that ejection he had and got well rested for his last start, but it was vs. the Padres with injuries. Now he faces the Rangers who have some good left hand hitting bats even with their injuries.
-OVER looks like the play to me. You've got a nice OVER ump here today in Hoye looking at this years #'s
-Weather - 40% chance of rain and wind blowing in from right field @ 8 mph.

Yanks/Rox
-I posted how I feel about this game in Thoughts/Discussion - UNDER and Rockies
-can Rockies go for the sweep? why not. Lopez has had some good starts vs the Yankees, very familiar with this team and he's pitching well this year.
-Clemens, we've yet to see the big game from him, this would be a good time to step up and avoid the sweep. He just hasn't had the time to train/etc like everyone else and I still think he gives up a couple runs. The line is just way too high near +180 to not take the Rockies who are hitting like they can right now.
-wind blowing IN from LF @ 5 mph


Pads/O's
- Bedard is a dog, everyone would normally jump on this right away prior to their lengthy losing streak/firing etc.
- I think this is a nice spot, they're out to prove they aren't a bad team, show they can win for Perlozzo got a W yesterday. I think the O's take the Series
- the Pads aren't a good hitting team, yes they have very good pitchers but Wells is nothing special and will give up runs
- O's bullpen still an issue for me to deal with so I'd say OVER 7.5 as well. Froemming has a tendency for UNDERS though.
- Tejada had to get a CT scan after being hit in the wrist yesterday night by Doug Brocail in the 8th and as of this moment is Questionable. That's a concern for this play.
- Wind coming IN @ 9mph from LF

Dodgers/Jays
-Yanks summed it up nicely, basically a tail of him if I play it but Jays and Marcum here.
-Weathers no issue if they close the roof, might rain 20% chance but if it open, wind is coming IN slightly @ 20 MPH from LF

Pirates/Mariners
-Whats wrong with King Felix?
-The rook, well #1 draft pick a few years back and had injury problems. Is he the real deal with just no hype? I feels like everyone is jumping quickly to the conclusion that he's a Pirate and will get hit.
-Mariners bats have been cold until yesterday when they put up 7, but Maholm is awful and I think this kid has to be better than Maholm.
-Value on Pirates? they've been hitting pretty well this month, bats do disappear and yesterday it happened to be Jeff Weaver who shut them down but NL teams he can handle. Last year he showed that. Think their might be too much stock into that fact and everyone feels King Felix will do the same
-the OVER looks appealing with the pitchers, we should see the Pirates pen come in around the 6th inning and that should help us get OVER. the ump Hallion has little information to back him up in the past, this year seems pretty neutral and more road teams have won for him and road dogs as well... like I said above, value on Pirates from that stance but whatever the Kids name is did face the White Sox last week and they are awful.
-wind is blowing OUT to CF @ 8 mph, 30% chance of rain
 
Wow man...TOP NOTCH post.

I wanted to write my leans but I'll just bandwagon to your post now :D.


OK I absofuckin lutely love the over in Texas.


First of, if I'm still on Earth, Arlington is still a hitters' friendly park.
Padilla sucks. Again: 9 million? Give me the bat I'll hit his pitch.
Lilly on the road: sucks.
Cubs are hitting, Rangers hitting, no serious slumps recorded.
Sosa vs his former team, maybe fireworks time?
Barret (C) was traded to SD, not sure if this directly influences the game, but I'm thinking it could.
Over ump.
As ReNew said, wind blowing in from right field @ 8 mph.



I also like the Jays at the moment, Billingsley hasn't pitched more than 3 innings in a game this year, Marcum has been winning games, -1 is my call, a lot of the games featuring Marcum ended up Jays by one. I want my money back in that case.


Pirates @ 2.90!
Definite value. I love my Mariners but these guys aren't hitting right now, forget last night's game, they cooled off a bit after that amazing streak. Maholm is a gas can, but Van Beschoten isn't getting enough respect here, definitely.
King Felix is battling post injury rust, he's not himself, too many hits, too many walks...this guy is prone to letting in runs right now. 2.90 is too much.


My initial lean was Colorado at 2.75 which I thought (and think) is an outrageous price, and I see a true war on various message boards when this game is concerned. Some guys saying how Yankee backers (tonight's Yankee backers) are head cases, gambling addicts, etc...
I'm aware a lot of the guys will chase tonight. And I know Lopez was rocked by the Yanks, but they don't own him THAT much. Also, Clemens is FAR from unhittable, especially since he only had two home starts, how about some Colorado sun now for ye ol' Rocket?
He could keep these bats in check but who says the Yanks HAVE to break out of their slump (2 runs in 18 innings) against Lopez?
I'll take the confident team at home against an old legend here. At this price, definitely. Considering small stakes on Rockies or no play.
 
As a Yankee fan the first thing I thought was that price is outrageous. I see -185 and I mean I am not going to bet against them, I simply usually don't touch their games, but the books are going to make you pay big time to chase them tonight and like many have said there is prob a 50% chance the Rockies win this game, imo. This is Clemens first road game and its in Colorodo... Rockies just took the last 2 games so they def have some confidence and although its tough to sweep a team, it happens all the time. This is the same Rockies team that took 2/3 in Fenway from the RedSox and has won 12 of their last 16games... They have a powerful lineup with capable bats. I think this could be a 3-3 type game in the 5th or 6th inning. I actually don't understand how the rockies are almost a .500 ball club and they might be a team to keep an eye on to keep picking up some wins. I think you have to be nuts to lay -185 with the Yanks here, seriously
 
The Giant fade train might have to end this wkend somewhat. I might have to go against my previous statement of not betting against the Yankees because there is def some interesting pitching matchups and the Giants will be at home and if they are going to be huge road favorites all wkend than there will be some value for sure, just have to pick the spots wisely like going against Igawa and getting Lowry at home.

Igawa Vs. Cain
Wang Vs. Morris
Mussina Vs. Lowry
 
I am off to Atlantic City in bout 2 hours, got a dentist appointment first, funny thing is that I am not going to gamble while I am there just party it up on friend's brother's comps. God bless people who play $1500 hands of blackjack and the free drinks and food I get because of it.


I want to wish every1 the best of luck today, I will be back to action tomorrow. Win some money guys!
 
Looks like adjusting the line to 11 will cost me the winner, since moneyback is far more realistic option right now, even though it looked quite well.
Onto the late games:


I like the Jays here, the reason is simple, these guys are hot right now, and I expect them to improve their record even more in the next period. The Dodgers, on the other hand, are a rather poor interleague team, and Chad Billingsley hasn't pitched for more than 3 innings in a game all season. His numbers so far indicate that he has done a remarkable job in relief, and he is definitely one of the top prospects of the NL. However, this is an AL park, and the Jays are looking to straight their sub .500 record and get back to the winning side.
Their potential is immense, they have a lot of big bats and a very good mix in the lineup, and I think they'll keep feasting off the Dodgers, a process they started last night with Halladay on the mound.
Marcum is no Doc, but he's a very solid pitcher, and the team likes him, they're scoring for him, and the Jays are hot at the moment, I don't think Billingsley will last much more than 5 innings. Will that be enough for the Dodger blue? I doubt it.
3 units Toronto -1 (2.11)
 
damn satyr, atleast you didnt lose money. Jays are looking like a nice play though. hope you get it. Glad you are taking it a little slower during this period with smaller bets, nice way to rebuild your stack
 
yes thanks ReNew...well I won't whine and moan and bitch any more, but come on...look at that total man...they were what, tied at 5 in 5th? and all they manage is a 6:5? come on. Anyways, moving on...hope to nail Colorado (also took BAL small in a treble with Tex-Chc over and Col +1,5) and Toronto as the late play.


I do lean to Pittsburgh but I still haven't pulled the trigger on anything there.
 
true, yea that should have gone over. I was asleep the whole game, didn't see when the runs were scored.

I have some stats on Felix in my thread, I am not forcing the play but if my plays hold up I will certainly make my regular sized bet on it and maybe the OVER.
 
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