Thursday Big Card Discussion
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Dollaz
Egor Demin Watch Club Member
Ottawa @ Boston. Two hot teams. Didn't expect the Ottawa number to be 70 cents. I thought Ottawa would struggle with injuries, but they have not. They have no concerns at goaltending as they have 3 guys that can get the job done. This team is playing fantastic and them seem to win every shootout (?). Boston clearly the better team and at home. Probably laying off this game. Value bet on Ottawa is possible. Certainly not taking Boston, no value on ML or PL and I'm not convinced they'll hit the team total.
Toronto a small dog at Isles. Toronto is clearly a better team, imo. THey have 2 things working against them, a big emotional loss to Montreal last game and it being a BTB. Do they have tired legs or do they come out fired up over the loss? If you have the answer to that quesiton, you pick the right side. I wish I knew. 5v5 Toronto is +0.5/60, NYI are last in NHL at -1.3. Then again, PDO has TOronto as 3rd luckiest team so far and NYI 4th unluckiest team. That line tells me to take NY. Still debating. This may be a rare double PL play.
TB @ NYR. Rangers 0-3-1 without Nash. Lightning really struggling on the power play, but still leading the NHL in goals. THis is another game that has me stumped. TB is +0.5 5v5/60 while NY is 0.1.
Pit @ Car. I've been riding the Pens in the first period and they let me down last game and then scored 4 in the 2nd period. Home team is 6-1 in last 7 meetings. Overall, Pit is 1.15/0.45 in the 1P while Car is 0.39/1.17. Seems Pit is regressing int he 1P, but Im going to take another stab it it.
Buf@Fla. Buf went to TB and won on the road. Read they were outplayed, but Miller was the difference. Buff 4 goals in last 4 games while 0-13 on the pp. Strong lean to Florida right now. I usually fade teams that win the first game on the florida trip. Pit lost in this same instance last game.
NJ@Win. NJ has lost 4 of 5 after being one of hottest teams in league. NO Marty. First game back after a 4-1 road trip for WInnipeg probably isn't a good spot. To show his appreciation for his team's run of success, coach Claude Noel gave his charges the day off on Wednesday. "The only thing that you're always somewhat worried about is when you come home off of a long road trip," Noel said. "We dealt with that demon last year all the time and I thought we handled it pretty well." Win already doesn't play wella t home at 3-5. NJ has won 8 of 10 vs. Winn. Win also beat NJ on the road recently. Strong lean toward NJ here.
Chi@ Stl. Everyone has circled the Edm then St Lou matchup to fade Chicago expecting the streak to end. I agrree and like the Blues chances. However, I've faded the Hawks during this streak and lost. One of the best tips I ever got was when you ride a winning streak, you can get paid several times, fading a winning streak, you'll only be right once. Probably laying off this game. Chi clearly the best team in the league right now. Probably grab some adult beverages and just watch.
Edm @ Dal. Love how Dallas is playing. They've beaten Edm twice this year. Edm really struggling. Of note, Dallas has scored over 3 or more in last 10 games, averaging 3.6 per game. I really don't like Edmonton here, but I am also hesitant to bet on a team winning 3 straight in same season vs. another team. Over is a strong lean (either tt or game)
Cal@ Col. Battle of 2 teams I cant figure out so the smart thing would probably be stay away for me. last month Col won 6-3 in Calgary. Col has been competitive in the last few taking on Nash, Stl, LA, Ana, SJ. WOn 2 games, 3 of them went to OT. Col only giving up 2 goals per game at home. Col playing well and at home, they are a lean.
Min @ PHo. Min is on my fade on road, back at home list. 7-2 at home, 2-5 on the road. Pho won the last meeting at home. Minn may have to hold back a little tonight with them traveling to Anaheim tomorrow night. Min is 1.88/2.75 on the road this seaon, while PHo is 3.1/2.3. Big disparity on the way these teams are playing home/road. Minny has won 7 of last 34 road games. PHo PL is a strong lean.
Det @ SJ. I think Det has played better than most expected, but they are back to back after a loss vs. LA. Just 2-4-2 away this year. SJ predictably struggled against Col after a 6 game road trip. Det is gettin outscored by a goal per game on the road while SJ is 2.56/1.78 at home. Expecting a big number on SJ and I may play the 0.5. Det has been one of the luckier teams based on PDO and have played like crap on the road.
Toronto a small dog at Isles. Toronto is clearly a better team, imo. THey have 2 things working against them, a big emotional loss to Montreal last game and it being a BTB. Do they have tired legs or do they come out fired up over the loss? If you have the answer to that quesiton, you pick the right side. I wish I knew. 5v5 Toronto is +0.5/60, NYI are last in NHL at -1.3. Then again, PDO has TOronto as 3rd luckiest team so far and NYI 4th unluckiest team. That line tells me to take NY. Still debating. This may be a rare double PL play.
TB @ NYR. Rangers 0-3-1 without Nash. Lightning really struggling on the power play, but still leading the NHL in goals. THis is another game that has me stumped. TB is +0.5 5v5/60 while NY is 0.1.
Pit @ Car. I've been riding the Pens in the first period and they let me down last game and then scored 4 in the 2nd period. Home team is 6-1 in last 7 meetings. Overall, Pit is 1.15/0.45 in the 1P while Car is 0.39/1.17. Seems Pit is regressing int he 1P, but Im going to take another stab it it.
Buf@Fla. Buf went to TB and won on the road. Read they were outplayed, but Miller was the difference. Buff 4 goals in last 4 games while 0-13 on the pp. Strong lean to Florida right now. I usually fade teams that win the first game on the florida trip. Pit lost in this same instance last game.
NJ@Win. NJ has lost 4 of 5 after being one of hottest teams in league. NO Marty. First game back after a 4-1 road trip for WInnipeg probably isn't a good spot. To show his appreciation for his team's run of success, coach Claude Noel gave his charges the day off on Wednesday. "The only thing that you're always somewhat worried about is when you come home off of a long road trip," Noel said. "We dealt with that demon last year all the time and I thought we handled it pretty well." Win already doesn't play wella t home at 3-5. NJ has won 8 of 10 vs. Winn. Win also beat NJ on the road recently. Strong lean toward NJ here.
Chi@ Stl. Everyone has circled the Edm then St Lou matchup to fade Chicago expecting the streak to end. I agrree and like the Blues chances. However, I've faded the Hawks during this streak and lost. One of the best tips I ever got was when you ride a winning streak, you can get paid several times, fading a winning streak, you'll only be right once. Probably laying off this game. Chi clearly the best team in the league right now. Probably grab some adult beverages and just watch.
Edm @ Dal. Love how Dallas is playing. They've beaten Edm twice this year. Edm really struggling. Of note, Dallas has scored over 3 or more in last 10 games, averaging 3.6 per game. I really don't like Edmonton here, but I am also hesitant to bet on a team winning 3 straight in same season vs. another team. Over is a strong lean (either tt or game)
Cal@ Col. Battle of 2 teams I cant figure out so the smart thing would probably be stay away for me. last month Col won 6-3 in Calgary. Col has been competitive in the last few taking on Nash, Stl, LA, Ana, SJ. WOn 2 games, 3 of them went to OT. Col only giving up 2 goals per game at home. Col playing well and at home, they are a lean.
Min @ PHo. Min is on my fade on road, back at home list. 7-2 at home, 2-5 on the road. Pho won the last meeting at home. Minn may have to hold back a little tonight with them traveling to Anaheim tomorrow night. Min is 1.88/2.75 on the road this seaon, while PHo is 3.1/2.3. Big disparity on the way these teams are playing home/road. Minny has won 7 of last 34 road games. PHo PL is a strong lean.
Det @ SJ. I think Det has played better than most expected, but they are back to back after a loss vs. LA. Just 2-4-2 away this year. SJ predictably struggled against Col after a 6 game road trip. Det is gettin outscored by a goal per game on the road while SJ is 2.56/1.78 at home. Expecting a big number on SJ and I may play the 0.5. Det has been one of the luckier teams based on PDO and have played like crap on the road.
Santacapper
Pretty much a regular
agree with your thoughts on mostsave for SJ and NJ, I think SJ is way overpriced tonight... they just lost a whole bunch and squeaked one out in OT the other night... Detroit while not playing too well obviously IMO is worth a shot.
On the Leafs, not too apt to losing B2B games, last night was a stinker, Reimer should be in net too...
Why not play the Hawks again at a fair price, Blues injuries are adding up again.
On the Leafs, not too apt to losing B2B games, last night was a stinker, Reimer should be in net too...
Why not play the Hawks again at a fair price, Blues injuries are adding up again.
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Keep these going please!!
ottawa or nothing, but I would strongly recommend nothing till it looks like boston comes back to earth, do like the under slightly
I like the isles with toronto coming on the 2nd leg of a b2b also on the road, they're second in penalty minutes, and the isles may not be so great 5v5, but they're one of the best on the pp, maybe the over is the better play.
I'm a rangers homer, had them pegged to lose to winnipeg and come back strong vs. tampa. I feel as if they were the better team vs. the jets but let in some soft goals and couldn't find the net when needed, having said that, I feel like they are going to score vs. this tampa team who are susceptible to it. Add in the coach and richards vs there old team. Oh, and tampa is fade on the road, back at home. rangers tt O atleast for me
no real comment yet for the carolina game, slight lean to the hurricanes, but we'll see.
I do like florida, I think people slightly underrate them, but not a huge fan of clemmensen, add in the second game of the florida trip like you said, and I kind of see it as a wash
The price on the under in winnipeg/nj is ridiculous, probably staying away from the game.
Agreed on your thoughts on the chi/stl game, is this where they finally lose?, we'll see but I'm not fading them right now, may look at the over, just a slight lean
ya, like the over in the dallas/edmonton game as well, just need 2-2 for safety
no comment on cal/col game
Like the under in the wild/yotes game, and for those of you who like to bet it, maybe the yes to it going to ot
Going to mention it again, but niemi has been playing well.... I've lost a bunch backing the sharks lately, but I think they will continue what they started again vs colorado (scoring 3 goals!), they're awesome at home as well, and gustavsson is nothing scary, plusss detroit played a tough tough physical game vs. the kings yesterday (which i'm still bitter about, after watching most of the game and the whole third period
) sharks tt O for me at a minimum
ottawa or nothing, but I would strongly recommend nothing till it looks like boston comes back to earth, do like the under slightly
I like the isles with toronto coming on the 2nd leg of a b2b also on the road, they're second in penalty minutes, and the isles may not be so great 5v5, but they're one of the best on the pp, maybe the over is the better play.
I'm a rangers homer, had them pegged to lose to winnipeg and come back strong vs. tampa. I feel as if they were the better team vs. the jets but let in some soft goals and couldn't find the net when needed, having said that, I feel like they are going to score vs. this tampa team who are susceptible to it. Add in the coach and richards vs there old team. Oh, and tampa is fade on the road, back at home. rangers tt O atleast for me
no real comment yet for the carolina game, slight lean to the hurricanes, but we'll see.
I do like florida, I think people slightly underrate them, but not a huge fan of clemmensen, add in the second game of the florida trip like you said, and I kind of see it as a wash
The price on the under in winnipeg/nj is ridiculous, probably staying away from the game.
Agreed on your thoughts on the chi/stl game, is this where they finally lose?, we'll see but I'm not fading them right now, may look at the over, just a slight lean
ya, like the over in the dallas/edmonton game as well, just need 2-2 for safety
no comment on cal/col game
Like the under in the wild/yotes game, and for those of you who like to bet it, maybe the yes to it going to ot
Going to mention it again, but niemi has been playing well.... I've lost a bunch backing the sharks lately, but I think they will continue what they started again vs colorado (scoring 3 goals!), they're awesome at home as well, and gustavsson is nothing scary, plusss detroit played a tough tough physical game vs. the kings yesterday (which i'm still bitter about, after watching most of the game and the whole third period
) sharks tt O for me at a minimum
Dollaz
Egor Demin Watch Club Member
Isles have the 4th best 5v4 +/-/60 on the year, average 9.4 goals per 60 minutes of 5v4 play. Toronto is mid pack on 4v5. They give up 6 goals/60 of 4v5 play. Def. an advantage for the Isles. If tor continues to get penalyzed (tired legs?), then NYI should net a pp goal or 2.
Dollaz
Egor Demin Watch Club Member
I think the big line for SJ is justified. Det on a B2B and have been terrible on the road.
Det on the road:
Stl- L (6-0)
Columbus- W in OT
Chi L
Columbus L
StL W
Minny L
Nash L
LA L
Gustavvson is in net tonight as well.
NOt going to play Chicago. It's Blues or nothing.
Dollaz
Egor Demin Watch Club Member
https://twitter.com/JSportsnet/status/307169601890942977
Lets hope he suits up for Calgary if you are on Colorado.
Lets hope he suits up for Calgary if you are on Colorado.
C-MAN
Pretty much a regular
Agree on fading teams on back end of Fla trip, but taking a flyer on Buf anyway. They have been playing tight games since the coaching change and finally broke through against TB. They have a big fan base in Fla and have had much success playing at this location. Fla injuries piling up helps as well.
bloodhound
Sniffing out wins
GL on the big card
