Thursday Bases

E.T.G.

E.T.G.

One of trus baby mommas
Will update record later..

Fresh off my first winning day in 8 tries maybe I can get something going here.

I have taken some quick looks at the card, havent crunched any numbers yet but here are some sides I am looking at. Could change as I look into the games later.

Leans:

Pirates +112: This would have to move up for me to play but I like Pitt trying to avoid a sweep...The problem is that although Gorz has been good this yr, the Pitt offense makes me want to shy away from this play. I watched the whole game on Wednesday and they are bad. The under makes logical sense but at 7.5 there really is no room for error.

Marlins -117: Phillies almost gave away the game on Wednes allowing 4 in the bottom of the 9th to tie the game from 7-3 to 7-7. They later won the game in the 10th but I like how the Marlins battle. For a young team that could have some carry over effect into tomorrow in the sense that they won't get down if they are losing. Willis last start was good as well. I would give the Marlins the bullpen edge as well seeing how Myers broke down tonight. Owens and Lindstrom give some tough at bats.

DBacks -110/ Under 9-105: Houston offense is seriously non existant. Might as well fade some cold bats with a pretty decent pitcher in Owings taking the mound (Shoutout to Renew). I must say Arizona offense is pretty unreliable too and that is why I will look deeper into the Under with two bad hitting teams.

Royals +115: I like De La Rosa a lot but you have to give me some more here to consider this play especially since Royals are looking to SWEEP one of the best teams in baseball. Sowers has been absolute shit this yr at 0-4 but because of the Sweep situation it might not even be worth a shot.

Mets Under 8+100: Looking to get a little higher number, maybe a hook on this but I could see a pitchers duel happening in this game.

Tampa Over 10.5-110: A high number but they prob couldn't make this number high enough. Anyone seen Horacio's road numbers? 0-2, 13.17era, 3games, 13.2ip, 29hits, 20er, 5k, 9bb, and batters hitting .439 off him. You only bet this guy when he is pitching at home...Now add in Jae Seo and his 7.8era and this thing should hit by the 5th-6th inning.

Orioles -122 / Under 8.5 -105: Guthrie is pitching well right now, Orioles offense struggles, Marcum last 3 have been very good as well. Of course I'd hate to bet an under and have it blown because of the Orioles great bullpen

Overall, I think this card is pretty tough tomorrow so I would like to find 2 or 3 at a max games I think I can win..

Bout to go out for a little bit but will look through sum shit later since I am nocturnal.

Peace out
 
Like Pitt to bounce back, and I have some sort of strange fascination with Willis; he sure is better at home. Good luck, on those two, and trying to limit my plays. So many games in a day, start thinking I can pick 'em all. Do best when I play 1-3 a day.
 
Do best myself when I play 7 or 8. Have played KC in every game of this series and even took a series bet on them plus 85 cents at the Greek and certainly not stopping now. Something to understand is how greatly the KC bullpen has inproved with Greinke and now Dotel. Simple fact is KC should be laying around 40 cents here and you can take plus money. Am leaning to Florida myself but am still thinking there. Tough spot for both as they both seem likely to be fried in their next series. Got to go back to study GL
 
Not so sure about pitt, they just can't score runs, it doesn't matter how good the pitcher is... I had them both the last two days btw
 
Dayton - Yea I guess we are liking the same thing then. I like to think Pitt bounces back. I like Willis but Marlins are a terrible defensive team.

Tuck - Good call on KC. I like them tomorrow and they are playing hot ball but can they sweep. It sets up nice with Sowers taking the mound and Cleveland really aint that good on the road (10-12). Tough call, have to look into it more.

Jack - Its been a tough ride for you then this wk on Pitt. Sorry

Pitt is a tough one..I am tempted by Gorzelanny's past performances vs them (1-0, .59era, 2games, 15.1ip, 8h, 1er, 3bb, 7k) and just overall this yr he has been solid....Tonight everything went right for the Cards.. Kip Wells (16walks in L3 games) walks one guy. Pitt at one point in the game has 2 hits and Kip had 1 sometime in the 5th before Duncan blasted off. David Eckstein hit his first HR of the yr to start the game. St. Louie has swept Pitt before though however and that makes me a little weary... I still don't fear St. Louie on offense tomorrow vs. Gorzelanny..His splits are solid no matter which way you look at them, home/away, RH/LH batters, but hes been the victim of poor run support. I fear Pitt offense vs. Anyone along with Pitts bullpen to a lesser extent. If there is one thing I am sure about though, Eckstein won't homer tomorrow, I will bet anyone on the forum that, you get +10,000 odds. Gorzelanny has given up 3 in 55ip, Snell gave up 3 tonight. I don't expect that to happen tomorrow but I really would like a higher line than +112. The thought of losing this game 2-1 kills me.
 
Early Bird Special:

Pitt +112/ Under 8-110:

First I would like a little more +money to compensate for the Offense I have to bet if I decide to take Pitt. Much of what I had to say is above so I'll just throw some #'s out there.
  • Gorzelanny this yr vs. Cards: 1-0, .59era, 2g, 15.1ip, 8h, 1er, 3bb, 7k.. These numbers say the same story as Ian Snell's did. I should be 2-0 vs the Cards prior to my 3rd start but my team doesn't support me when I pitch
  • Gorzelanny on the road: 4-1, Pirates are 5-4 when he pitches. Batters hitting .234 overall off him and he dominates LH batters at .162
  • Gorzelanny has issued 11 of 16walks on the road this yr, a concern but its over 5 games and thats 2 a game, I can take it.
  • Pitt hitters vs. RHP: .245 overall, .312 last 10games. HMM I am not sure I believe that after watching Kip Wells but maybe they are due for 4-5runs?
  • Cards hitters vs. LHP: .240 overall, .291 last 10games.
  • Looper last 3 gams is 2-1, 17ip, 4.24era, 5bb, 11k, era is skewed by his last outting vs Detroit (far better offense than Pitt) 4ip, 9h, 7er.
  • I would think Looper comes out and tries to redeem his past outting vs a weaker offense.
  • Looper is 1-0 in 7ip with 0.00 allowing 2h, 3bb, 3k vs Pitt this yr. And 1-1 w/ 1.65 in his career vs. Pitt
  • Looper is 2-1 at home with 2.52era in 4games over 25ip, 22h, 7bb, 13k and batters are hitting .239 off him. Overall they are hitting just .254.
  • Ump is an under Ump this yr (3-7 O/U)
  • Early start could help even though tonights game was pretty fast pace.
  • Weather is showing wind blowing IN from the South at a "light" 16mph, whatever that means. http://www.weather.com/outlook/events/mlb/gameforecast/63102?eventid=210636&epc=be
Why even mess with a side in this game. The Under seems like a good play since both pitchers have dominated their opponents this yr. Pitt isn't a good offense and neither is St Louie. It would take 9 runs to beat the Under so in order for that to happen 1 of the teams has to get blown out 8-1, 7-2, 6-3 type style or we can work with a lot more numbers like 1-0, 2-1, 3-1, 3-2, 4-2, 4-3, 5-2, 6-1 which I think are more likely given the starting pitchers. Its tough to take Pitt here even though I think they avoid the sweep, Its very possible Gorz could leave the game in the 7th at 0-0 and get a ND because his team lost 2-0 again.
 
Well shit I was looking at the early line. Right now its Over 7.5 -115, this thing needs to move back up to 8 so 9 runs have to beat the Under not 8. Damn
 
hey green........what do you think about the angels at +140? I think Santana will finally get his first win and Bonderman is coming off the DL. I have pitt and angels in a 2 parlay 200 to win 784...GL with your plays
 
gambaholic said:
hey green........what do you think about the angels at +140? I think Santana will finally get his first win and Bonderman is coming off the DL. I have pitt and angels in a 2 parlay 200 to win 784...GL with your plays
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Tough to back Santana on the road, real tough. I have no feel for this game honestly. I don't know what Bonderman is going to do back from injury, the parlay pays nice odds and I hope you hit it but I think both pitchers could get hit pretty good and I think the game might go over but thats about all I can say as a side goes. GL
 
last time bonderman faced angels at la.......he got lit up for 11 hits and 7 runs....hoping for the same outing.
 
GL with the plays ETG. finally A Winning Day and hope it continues.

lol thanks for the shout out, GO OWINGS!!!

lastly...

'an_horse' :smiley_acbe: :shake: :wacka wacka: :cheers: money; :dance3: :smiley_abds: :drink: :smiley_abcs: :23_5_126: :23_6_102: :23_5_118: :36_1_36: :36_1_23: :36_1_55: :15_10_5: :money2: :Cheers:
 
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Renew - hahaha, Thanks :wacka wacka:
Terp - GL
Trout - I like to think they grind out a win too but I watched the whole game last night and they can't hit worth a shit
Yanks - Thanks, Best of Luck today
Shakes - Thanks, you will break that shit, stay patient.


I guess a lot of people like the Under in the Pitt game because now its

Under 7.5 -115

I am just worried about playing a total this low, I haven't played a number this low all yr. Getting beat by 8 instead of 9 runs is a big difference and there is no push with 7.5 and less room for error..

If the Angels Over comes down to 9 without the hook I am going to have to give that a harder look. I think both offense can hit + both pitchers + bullpens + Over ump = Over in that game. Over is 14-6 in Santana's last 20 road starts. Also, Santana has a good career record vs. Tigers, only 1 of those games was pitched on the road, a 9-0 loss last yr to Rogers.

Lot of people are on the Marlins, line from -117 to -130 and I would much rather play for -117 but think I might take a RL shot here maybe if I did play for some better value (+170) ...Look at Philly bullpen, it should be interesting watching them pitch tonight. Marlins just can't play terrible defense like they usually do.

The under in the Zona game got pounded out now see Under 9 -125

Over 10.5 -115 in Tampa is still getting hit up, I guess you can't blame people for looking at how bad these 2 pitchers have been home/away.

Royals number isn't moving, Going to have to wait until about 7:30 to hit the Royals if you like them because then you will get +125 or something after Cleveland gets pounded by bettors.
 
ETG...best of luck today :cheers:

I like Pitt too but I've lost the last two days and don't feel like chasing them again...I did take the over @ 7.5 though. StL bats have been more consistent and I see this game at 5-3 either way...maybe more for StL.

I also like the Angel O9.5 and the Mariners today in the early games.

Tied all three of those together for 1/2 a unit to win 3.

again...BOL :cheers:
 
I am having a hard time pulling the trigger on Pitt...

A decision has to be made on the O/U now though.. Under 7.5 -120, I am not paying anymore juice and its unlikely this thing gets pounded back to 8, more likely to see 7 than 8. Just trying to figure out possible scores in this game besides every number and a shutout..

6-1, 5-2, 5-1, 4-3, 4-2, 4-1, 3-1, 3-2, 2-1

I mean everything is here for an Under, the number 7.5 just scares the shit out of me. If this games does end up having 8 runs scored I will be pretty pissed off.

Under is 9-1-3 in last 13 meetings. I think they might of had their over for the series on Tuesday night.

3 of last 4 games Gorzelanny has pitched have gone Under
2 of last 3 games Looper has pitched have gone Under

I really just can't see Pitt knocking Looper around for 5 runs or anything, not 4 runs either. I think both pitchers go 6-7ip, 1-2runs tops.

Weather: Wind blowing in at 21mph now is "heavy", no ball is leaving the park today..


Under 7.5 $550 to Win $458.33

I am going with the obvious play, don't see either pitcher getting tagged but didn't see Kip Wells having his best outting of the yr Wednesday either. Hopefully both offenses left the bats inside the clubhouse
 
Great points ETG...what are the line-ups like today? Anyone resting on Thursday Day game? That would help the U most of the time too...
 
<TABLE id=HB_Mail_Container height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 UNSELECTABLE="on"><TBODY><TR height="100%" UNSELECTABLE="on" width="100%"><TD id=HB_Focus_Element vAlign=top width="100%" background="" height=250 UNSELECTABLE="off">everything-I like your thoughts on the Under. I too had similar concerns with the total. I'm rolling with you on this, you've convinced me with the wind and your other thoughts here. Lets cash this Under!
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BigRaktor said:
Great points ETG...what are the line-ups like today? Anyone resting on Thursday Day game? That would help the U most of the time too...
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hah, I don't want them resting anyone. I want those same cold bats from last night in the game. I would expect Molina to be catching today, he didn't catch yesterday. Pitt, I don't know who they could possibly sit/bring in today to help their anemic offense. If I avoid the longball I like my chances. Earn those 8 runs off 2 good pitchers and I will go down on the losing side with no problems. If Gorzelanny gives up 3 homers (the same amount he's given up this yr) in 21mph winds blowing IN, well then I have a problem because that only happens when I bet the game.. Best of Luck today though..
 
Terpman92 said:
<TABLE id=HB_Mail_Container height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 UNSELECTABLE="on"><TBODY><TR height="100%" UNSELECTABLE="on" width="100%"><TD id=HB_Focus_Element vAlign=top width="100%" background="" height=250 UNSELECTABLE="off">everything-I like your thoughts on the Under. I too had similar concerns with the total. I'm rolling with you on this, you've convinced me with the wind and your other thoughts here. Lets cash this Under!
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Terp - I hope it hits for us then! I really see a pitchers duel, a game much like the WSox/A's last night. I hope I didn't lead you down the wrong path!
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<TABLE class=textSm cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=559 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=276><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=276 border=0><TBODY><TR align=middle bgColor=#dedede><TD align=left width=130>Pittsburgh</TD><TD width="7%">AB</TD><TD width="7%">R</TD><TD width="7%">H</TD><TD width="7%">RBI</TD><TD width="7%">BB</TD><TD width="7%">SO</TD><TD width="7%">LOB</TD><TD align=right width="10%">AVG</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD noWrap align=left>Bautista, 3B</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD align=right>.265</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD noWrap align=left>Duffy, CF</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD align=right>.227</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD noWrap align=left>Sanchez, 2B</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD align=right>.286</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD noWrap align=left>LaRoche, 1B</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD align=right>.195</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD noWrap align=left>Bay, LF</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD align=right>.283</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD noWrap align=left>Nady, RF</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD align=right>.280</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD noWrap align=left>Paulino, C</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD align=right>.227</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD noWrap align=left>Wilson, SS</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD align=right>.250</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD noWrap align=left>Gorzelanny, P</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD align=right>.100</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD align=left>Totals</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD align=right></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD width=7></TD><TD vAlign=top width=276><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=276 border=0><TBODY><TR align=middle bgColor=#dedede><TD align=left width=130>St. Louis</TD><TD width="7%">AB</TD><TD width="7%">R</TD><TD width="7%">H</TD><TD width="7%">RBI</TD><TD width="7%">BB</TD><TD width="7%">SO</TD><TD width="7%">LOB</TD><TD align=right width="10%">AVG</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD noWrap align=left>Eckstein, SS</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD align=right>.270</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD noWrap align=left>Ludwick, LF</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD align=right>.229</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD noWrap align=left>Pujols, 1B</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD align=right>.276</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD noWrap align=left>Encarnacion, RF</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD align=right>.310</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD noWrap align=left>Rolen, 3B</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD align=right>.215</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD noWrap align=left>Taguchi, CF</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD align=right>.224</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD noWrap align=left>Molina, C</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD align=right>.295</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD noWrap align=left>Miles, 2B</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD align=right>.263</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD noWrap align=left>Looper, P</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD align=right>.200</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD align=left>Totals</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD align=right></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Here are the rosters for today...thinking this is good for the under.
 
No Duncan because Gorz dominates LH batters, he is one of their best bats. Good for me.. No one in this game is batting .300.. I will take my chances
 
ALERT!!! According to MLB.com the wind is blowing out to LF...I think weather.com is jacked up...it shows from the South at 27MPH right now. And the MLB.com stadium orientation shows South to North is out to left field
 
ETG, for the pitt game, the wind is actually blowing out gusty at 22mph!

Also, laa/det game is getting hammered down real heavily, strange consider everyone is on the over.
 
BigRaktor said:
ALERT!!! According to MLB.com the wind is blowing out to LF...I think weather.com is jacked up...it shows from the South at 27MPH right now. And the MLB.com stadium orientation shows South to North is out to left field
Click to expand...

Don't tell me that
 
You would think a website called "WEATHER.COM" would be able to get the correction wind direction. Is that too much to ask for in 2007
 
Well, weather.com has the correct wind direction...from the S...they are just stupid about stadium orientation...but that would be nice if they could get it right
 
Normally I would check weather.com for wind direction and then the sticky for statium orientations.
 
Going to start narrowing the late plays down now..

Marlins RL -1.5 +165 /ML -130
Mets Under 8.5 -115
Arizona Under 9 -120/ Arizona -111
Orioles Under 8.5 -105
Royals +116
 
I think the fish get shelled...Willis isnt really a quality pitcher this year and he has been bailed out by run support from his team, I think Lieber is solid enough to hold that lineup down a little, I like the Phillies for 5 innings but, wouldnt trust the bullpen.
 
Troutman said:
I think the fish get shelled...Willis isnt really a quality pitcher this year and he has been bailed out by run support from his team, I think Lieber is solid enough to hold that lineup down a little, I like the Phillies for 5 innings but, wouldnt trust the bullpen.
Click to expand...

Some things about what you said.. What makes you think Lieber can hold the Marlins down enough?

Abercrombie (.286 in 7ab) / Amezeaga (.273 in 11ab)
Uggla (.250 in 6ab)
Hanley (.333 in 15ab)
Miguel (.391 in 23ab)
Hermida (.250 in 4ab)
Olivo (.333 in 15ab)
Borchard (.400 in 5ab)
Willingham (.143 in 14ab)


Willis is no easy out either.

Hanley and Cabrera get this offense going and so if they hit Lieber they will score some runs.

The Phillies don't hit LHP well (.239) and they havent hit it good in their last 10 games (.179).

Phillies bullpen factors to be a big problem as well and Marlins have a def edge there.

To add a few more things.. Willis last 2 starts are much better, Marlins are 7-3 when he pitches..Willis has won both of his starts against Philadelphia this season, sporting a 2-0 mark with a 5.10 earned run average, I admit I don't like it much. He defeated Philly the first time on April 7 with six innings of three-run ball before allowing four earned run in 6 1/3 frames on April 28.
 
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Orioles Under 8.5 -105:

Possible play here. This is two relievers converted to starters, maybe they are pitching over their head, maybe not. Guthrie has given up 3 runs twice this yr, both times to Cleveland, a far better offense than the Blue Jays, and he came in as a reliever.

Guthrie Last 3 starts:

@Wash: W - 7ip, 4h, 1er, 10k, 0bb
@Bos : ND - 8.1ip, 3h, 1r, 0er, 2k, 2bb
TB: W - 6ip, 6h, 1er, 2k, 0bb

Marcum Last 2 starts:

@Phil: W - 6ip, 4h, 2er, 6k, 1bb
TB: ND - 6ip, 0er, 7k, 3BB

Under is 5/7 in this series this yr, Under is 10-2 in Toronto last 12 overall. Under is 6-3-1 in Baltimore last 10 overall.

Umpire is 4-5 O/U this yr, 15-16 in 06', 13-21 in 05'.

Weather:

oriole_park_at_camden_yards.gif


Wind is blowing out from the SSE to left field at a light 9mph, no real effect at all.

Kind of a tough play because they are both relievers, are they due for a letdown but both offense can be cold as ice on any given night. 8.5 is a high number for a game that could be 3-2 or pretty close to that in my mind.
 
Braves Under 8.5 -120:

Getting killed on the juice on these totals but its whatever.

Glavine this yr vs. Braves: 0-1, 3.97, 2g, 11.1ip, 11h, 5er, 3bb, 7k
Smoltz this yr vs. Mets: 1-0, 6.17era, 11.2ip, 16h, 8er, 6bb, 7k

These two have matched up twice this yr already, a 5-3 ATL win in ATL, and a 9-6 ATL win in NY. I think this game will resemble the first one more than the 2nd one.

Smoltz last 3 games: 2-1, 1.74era, 20.2ip, 3bb, 19k
Glavine last 3 games: 2-0, 3.79era, 19ip, 7bb, 9k

Smoltz at home: 3-1, 1.93era, 28ip, 24h, 23k, 10bb, and batters hitting .235 off him.
Glavine away: 3-1, 2.48era, 36.1ip, 31h, 18k, 11bb, and batters hitting .233 off him.

Umpire: Mark Carlson: 3-6 O/U this yr, 15-17 O/U in 06', 14-21 O/U in 05'

Weather shouldn't be a problem.

Mets in general are not hitting the ball as of late scoring 6 runs in their last 3 games vs some not so good pitching (Clippard, Davies, James). Smoltz is a few steps above these guys and lights out at home. Braves are off/on hitting the ball but they don't hit LH pitching all that well.

This is a rubber match game of a big series... I don't expect sloppy play and I expect the two old men to throw great games to give their respective teams a shot. With 8.5, there are some numbers to work with.

7-1, 6-2, 6-1, 5-3, 5-2, 5-1, 4-3, 4-2, 4-1, 3-2, 3-1, 2-1

I think it falls somewhere in the 4-3, 4-2 range and lean to the Braves here since the Mets are 4-13 in Glavine last 17 starts vs ATL.

Glavine has to step his game up today to give his team a shot because I think Smoltz will be dead on so Glavine is going to have to match him with 6ip of 1-2run baseball.
 
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I am off the Phillies game just for plain sake of value. I liked the line at -117 yesterday, now that its -137 I lost my shot at that game. There is going to be some Thunder storms there tonight and Heavy wind blowing in at 21mph for anyone interested
 
I think this game could go over, but should be determined by how well Smoltz pitches, Glavin is good for 3 at least and then the Mets bullpen is good for 1...If smoltz limits it to 1 or 2 then it stays under, if not I cant gurantee the braves bullpen doesnt give up 1......

Gl ..
 
Thanks Steed

Going to roll the dice here on the Baltimore/Blow Jays Under 8.5.

There is 1 player on the Jays hitting over .300 (Stairs at .313) and the Orioles have 2 players hitting over .300 (Roberts at .307) and (Tejada at .306)

These are two relievers so its risky but the price aint bad and neither team is hot on offense and both have pitched very very well in their limited amount of starts.

Under is 5/7 in this series this yr, Under is 10-2 in Toronto last 12 overall. Under is 6-3-1 in Baltimore last 10 overall.

I didn't go out of my way to find totals today I just been having a decent feel for them. I would like to take the Orioles but I missed my chance as the price is now -137. The RL is out of the question here with this team.

Orioles/BlowJays Under 8.5 $550 to Win $550

Still debating this Braves game and want to see how first 2 innings of Orioles game goes.
 
Basketbolists said:
Sick stuff in Pinny! In a matter of seconds - under went from +104 to +115 :)
Click to expand...

Yea well, someone just hit the Over for a lot of money on BJ as well since now its Under 9 -115..

I'd rather have Under 9-115 than Under 8.5 +100.. 2 minutes later and I have a better number.. Shit
 
everythingthatsgreen said:
Yea well, someone just hit the Over for a lot of money on BJ as well since now its Under 9 -115..

I'd rather have Under 9-115 than Under 8.5 +100.. 2 minutes later and I have a better number.. Shit
Click to expand...

yeah, that is pretty understandable there, but of course, we all wish we could have the best prices - just sometimes things do not fall in those places...
 
well if u have matchbook u get pretty much the best price. hey green, i hit orioles ML and ive been fire in mlb. orioles is a better pick than the total imo.
 
Books are either cashing or shelling out a lot of money on the Marlins tonight..

From -117 to -148

I guess that is what happens when you have no Utley or Victorino in the lineup tonight and you don't hit LH pitchers well at all.

No Chipper for the Braves tonight but he doesn't have much success vs. Glavine. Glavine is however tougher on RH batters than LH batters this yr which is interesting.

I am still undecided on the Mets Under. Smoltz going for #200 at home where he has been real tough. I think if I could get to the 7th in a 3-2 game I would have a legit shot at Under 8.5.
 
jimbo1227 said:
well if u have matchbook u get pretty much the best price. hey green, i hit orioles ML and ive been fire in mlb. orioles is a better pick than the total imo.
Click to expand...

You could be right but I have a problem paying -138 for the Orioles and Guthrie when the line was -120 last night. I don't usually play the lines that I like at a certain price but have been hammered up. I still like the Under regardless of the later hammering it took. Marcum needs to be on his mark tonight that is all. I have watched enough Oriole games to know they are a Double Play's best friend. I hope you stay hot
 
Basketbolists said:
yeah, that is pretty understandable there, but of course, we all wish we could have the best prices - just sometimes things do not fall in those places...
Click to expand...


I was just getting at the point that is fustrating when you have a line targeted for 20hours and it moves 2minutes after you bet, and 10minutes before the game. I had to take my +100 odds while I could get them because it was -105 before and I didn't think it would get hammered because usually it just moves from +100 to +105 not up to 9 from -120 / +100.

GL on ur plays
 
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