Thursday August 8th MLB Discussion - Is Sale the Greatest Fade?

Thursday night, Chris Sale makes his 24th start of the 2019 season against the Angels at Fenway Park.

In his previous 23 starts, the Red Sox are 8-15 (34.8%) on the moneyline, making Sale the least profitable starting pitcher in all of baseball for bettors, including losing his last two starts, both against the New York Yankees.

Between 2017 and 2018, Chris Sale was one of the most efficient pitchers in all of baseball when it came to simply winning games on the moneyline.

In Sale’s first two years in Boston, the Red Sox were 42-21 (66.7%) on the moneyline, beating opponents by 1.7 runs per game.

In that span, Sale actually lost bettors money due to the fact that the Red Sox were only listed as underdogs three times in his first two seasons in Boston.

In 2019, Sale has been listed as a favorite in all 24 starts, with his last game as an underdog coming all the way back in September 2018 on the road against Trevor Bauer and the Indians.

So far this season, Sale has lost bettors $1,144 on a $100 risk per game basis(how I bet), the least profitable pitcher in baseball. However if you wager to win $100 the losses are much worse. Here is the top 10 worse starters to bet on when playing to win $100 or risk $100 on dog.

View attachment 41565

At home this season, the Red Sox are 3-8, losing bettors $1408 when Chris Sale starts, with their average moneyline a whopping -232

Prior to 2019, Sale’s teams were a combined 66-38 (63.5%) when he started at home, including 19-9 (67.9%) as a member of the Red Sox.

One of the main reasons for Sale’s struggles has been simply his performance and the Red Sox offense.

  • His 4.76 ERA at home this season is his highest by almost a full run.
  • Sale has allowed at least 5 earned runs at home four times this season, already tied for his most in a single-season in his career.
  • Sale is receiving 3.61 runs of support from the Red Sox in 2019 (95th of 114 qualified pitchers). He was 44th of 123 in 2018 (5.20) and 62nd of 125 in 2017 (4.89).
 
Anyone know how that Sox RL bet last night would be graded? Is that a loss because it went 9 innings or a no bet because it’s a suspended game that’s not resumed immediately?
 
peelpub94 said:
Fuck Chris Sale.

Why on earth are there no day games today? Sitting outside on my deck watching all those games yesterday is the best way to spend a work day :bballspin:
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No clue man. I looked at today’s games last night before I went to bed and thought the same thing. Don’t think there hasn’t been Thursday day games all season. Not sure what’s up today.
 
Inspekdah said:
Anyone know how that Sox RL bet last night would be graded? Is that a loss because it went 9 innings or a no bet because it’s a suspended game that’s not resumed immediately?
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If a game goes past nine innings and not finished (i.e., suspended, curfew, rain delay, etc.), there is action on game total and run line wagers.
 
peelpub94 said:
If a game goes past nine innings and not finished (i.e., suspended, curfew, rain delay, etc.), there is action on game total and run line wagers.
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This is a rare but I am seeing this explanation, too. I'm hearing of people losing their over tickets but being refunded their RL bets.

So odd.
 
Inspekdah said:
This is a rare but I am seeing this explanation, too. I'm hearing of people losing their over tickets but being refunded their RL bets.

So odd.
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I honestly don't understand how you can grade any game that doesn't get to play out the full thing. All games should just be refunded in these conditions. But I guess it's just another way the house gets to make some cash.
 
peelpub94 said:
I honestly don't understand how you can grade any game that doesn't get to play out the full thing. All games should just be refunded in these conditions. But I guess it's just another way the house gets to make some cash.
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Yeah, it doesn't make any sense. Obviously RL bets are made on the favorite's side 95% of the time. So in the event of a tie, the book wins. BS but maybe that's the way.
 
Mets were 80-1 3 days ago to win the ship. I balked. Now 40-1. All value gone but I threw $50 on it.

Hottest team in baseball with the best P in baseball in a wild card fight. Even on road DeGrom would likely be favored in a play in game.

Then the hedging could begin.

But I was looking to do $500 or so at 80-1. $50 I'll ride it out.
 
Response from 5D on BOS runline...fukn cunts :angrymob:


For wagering purposes the score was 4-4 since they completed the 9th inning, you had runline -1½, unfortunately you lost the wager.

Our rule says:
"All regular season and exhibition baseball games are considered official after 5 innings of play (4½ if the home team is winning). If a game is called or suspended after 5 innings, the winner is determined by the score after the last full inning of play – unless the home team scores to tie or takes the lead in the bottom half of the inning, in that case, the winner is then determined by the score at the time the game is called. When betting on baseball totals or run-lines, the game must go 9 innings or 8½ if the home team is winning. (These rules also apply to all wagers on Live Betting Extra, Sportsbetting Prime and Live Betting Ultra and Prematch Betting).

"All regular season and exhibition baseball games are considered official after 5 innings of play (4½ if the home team is winning)."
They played over 9
"If a game is called or suspended after 5 innings, the winner is determined by the score after the last full inning of play"
Last inning of play was the 9th inning
"When betting on baseball totals or run-lines, the game must go 9 innings or 8½ if the home team is winning."
They went over the 9th inning.​
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No surpise the Yanks are money, but it's amazing how absolutely dominate they have been as road favorites this year/
  • 25-12 ML for 15% ROI
  • 23-14 RL for 24% ROI
  • 29-7-1 over the total for 52% ROI
Could be up over 40 units just plays Yanks ML, RL and OV in road games as favorites.
View attachment 41570

Also this year when German starts: NY is 15-3 ML +40% ROI and 14-3 RL +62%ROI
View attachment 41571

View attachment 41574View attachment 41573
 
Clevinger on 5 2-0 ERA .75 obvious tie in with Gibson's struggles with Cleveland I believe 1-8 for 2 units Gibson on 4 not much
 
Still looking but Bum on 4 playing at home after his team was swept and he considerably better on 4 than Nola and his team has a much better pen and batter vs pitcher favors SF
 
JROCK1966 said:
Not tonight @mrpickem Sale rolls tonight my friend.

:shake:
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Quite likely BOS will win, I give them ~ 64% chance of winning
so my thinking is if the played 100 times:
Bet BOS and they win 64 times at $1 ea and then they lose 36 times at 2.40 per loss, Easy math: $64 - (36*$2.40) = -$22.40
Bet LAA at +220 and win 36 times $.240 or lose 64 times $1 - (36*2.20)-64 = +$15.20

So theoretically if you betted this same game enough...well you get the picture

It may just be a Field of Dreams

View attachment 41592

Best of luck on your plays bro...I honestly expect to lose multiple plays every night, just gotta fish to land one.

:cheers3:
 
LAA is 10-8 +24% ROI in road games at night after a loss last 3 years after a game when Trout homers :rubbingin:

They also beat Verlander in the same situation 7/5/19 and he's pretty good.

But the OVER is 12-3-3 for +43.5% ROI and I will be hedging with a nice over play as well

View attachment 41595
 
Guys just a tidbit, I hate NFL betting and preseason even worse but this look like a cherry
Harbaugh actually tries in the preseason with a 65% record ATS since 2004, plus he is 12-1 in the first game of preseason with Ravens
I live in Jax and the Jags are a mess, new OC, new QB, at least 4 projected starters wont even suit up and the game is @Balty
Dont see why not throw a dolla or two after this
Ravens -3
 
Cubs are leading the Central. But Cincy is 4 games out of the wild card spot; sitting behind 4 other teams competing for the wild card spot. The Cubs had a nice little home stand, but are the most-profitable MLB team to fade in road games this season: 33-21 +$1,190
 
austinhous said:
Cubs are leading the Central. But Cincy is 4 games out of the wild card spot; sitting behind 4 other teams competing for the wild card spot. The Cubs had a nice little home stand, but are the most-profitable MLB team to fade in road games this season: 33-21 +$1,190
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And the Cubs have Hamels pitching for them tonight!

:biggestfan:
 
GWarner27 said:
off injury but he was decent @ATL after not being good in his debut
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What up G where you been. Looks like Wood stranded 100% of his base runners in those two games. But that's probably too small of a sample to get worked up about. I'm gonna roll with Cincy. Cubs are getting too much love with the way they've lost road games, especially vs the Central, and you gotta be pretty square to pay that price to back them on the road. I think I like the unpopular home dog.
 
mrpickem said:
Guys just a tidbit, I hate NFL betting and preseason even worse but this look like a cherry
Harbaugh actually tries in the preseason with a 65% record ATS since 2004, plus he is 12-1 in the first game of preseason with Ravens
I live in Jax and the Jags are a mess, new OC, new QB, at least 4 projected starters wont even suit up and the game is @Balty
Dont see why not throw a dolla or two after this
Ravens -3
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Thanks for the update! This one was money. I only bet first half though. Wish I would have taken full game too. Debating taking halftime line. You got anything juicy for the 2 late games?
 
T-Rex said:
Thanks for the update! This one was money. I only bet first half though. Wish I would have taken full game too. Debating taking halftime line. You got anything juicy for the 2 late games?
Click to expand...

Nah, thats all. Not a big NFL guy but I follow Jags. Took 1H and game...played 2H under
 
Hamels had a GREAT ump and I got scared but won first half still in for game currently increased bet on Toronto over, Cleveland large,
 
Lost a SMALL bet on Atlanta. REALLY did not like it but DAllas and ump 14 innings no score so I did bet him




i tried
 
mrpickem said:
Guys just a tidbit, I hate NFL betting and preseason even worse but this look like a cherry
Harbaugh actually tries in the preseason with a 65% record ATS since 2004, plus he is 12-1 in the first game of preseason with Ravens
I live in Jax and the Jags are a mess, new OC, new QB, at least 4 projected starters wont even suit up and the game is @Balty
Dont see why not throw a dolla or two after this
Ravens -3
Click to expand...

Superb job but why didn‘t you post this in the NFL forum for more to see haha. Go Jags :)
 
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