Thursday 11/14/13 NBA discussion thread

divol

divol

The Spurs can suck my manhood
[TABLE="class: linesTbl, width: 934"]
<tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px;">[TR="class: linesHeader"]
[TD="colspan: 8"][h=4]NBA BASKETBALL BASKETBALL - THU 11/14[/h][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesColumns"]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, colspan: 4, align: center"]GAME[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]HANDICAP[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]MONEY LINE[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]TOTAL POINTS[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]MORE[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Thu 11/14[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]503[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Oklahoma City Thunder[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+4.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 207.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]07:35 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]504[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Golden State Warriors[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-4.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 207.5 1.952[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
HOUSTON IS 9-1 SU AND 9-1 ATS IN THESE GAMES.

DATEHOME

<tbody>
[TD="width: 10%"]PTS[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]AWAY[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]PTS[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]SU RESULT[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]H LINE[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]ATS RESULT[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]O/U[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]O/U RESULT[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]12/17/2012[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]NY[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]96[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]HOU[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]109[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]-7½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]210[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]U[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]11/23/2012[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]HOU[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]131[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]NY[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]103[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]4½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]198[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]O[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]01/28/2012[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]HOU[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]97[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]NY[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]84[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]-7[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]192½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]U[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]01/19/2011[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]HOU[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]104[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]NY[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]89[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]-2½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]223[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]U[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]11/14/2010[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]NY[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]96[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]HOU[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]104[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]-2½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]213½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]U[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]03/21/2010[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]NY[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]112[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]HOU[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]116[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]3½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]211[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]O[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]01/09/2010[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]HOU[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]105[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]NY[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]96[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]-6[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]202½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]U[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]01/26/2009[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]NY[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]104[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]HOU[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]98[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]207½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]U[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]01/10/2009[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]HOU[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]96[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]NY[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]76[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]-5½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]204½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]U[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]01/09/2008[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]NY[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]92[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]HOU[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]101[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]5½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]187[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]O[/TD]

</tbody>
 
Knicks won rockets lost


What's the line gonna be? Only way Knicks stay close is if they are on fire behind the arc
 
Rockets playing B2B off an OT 230/100-100 game? You couldn't pay me to bet the Over.

The site crash killed my going back to check the last updated stats I had for this spot when I was tracking it fulltime, but the thread I can go back to (which covered 3 seasons) says the following -

Playing First, on the Road

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 11-7 ........... U/O 9-5 ...... vs Conference Opponents
U/O 8-5 ............. U/O 5-0 ...... vs non-Conference Opponents
Click to expand...

Houston is playing first (out of themselves & Philly), is on the road, and playing out of conference. While it's only a stat pool of 5 games, ignoring the conference issue, it's a 14-5 Under spot to be playing first & doing so on the road.

My recollection of the threads I tracked this spot with which were lost to the crash, is that the OT stats didn't regress (re their Under bias) whereas the regulation results did (when I quit following this spot closely, I mentioned that the spot to concentrate on for Unders was off the OT games).
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
Rockets playing B2B off an OT 230/100-100 game? You couldn't pay me to bet the Over.

The site crash killed my going back to check the last updated stats I had for this spot when I was tracking it fulltime, but the thread I can go back to (which covered 3 seasons) says the following -



Houston is playing first (out of themselves & Philly), is on the road, and playing out of conference. While it's only a stat pool of 5 games, ignoring the conference issue, it's a 14-5 Under spot to be playing first & doing so on the road.

My recollection of the threads I tracked this spot with which were lost to the crash, is that the OT stats didn't regress (re their Under bias) whereas the regulation results did (when I quit following this spot closely, I mentioned that the spot to concentrate on for Unders was off the OT games).
Click to expand...

only way it goes under is if knicks get blown out which is def possible...Knicks hit their threes with JR starting and Bargs it goes over
 
Divol and others have been looking for a chance to bet OKC after a loss. They were playing after a loss vs the Suns and did not cover. Regarding GS they have improved with more size and increased basketball intelligence but still have a suspect bench. How has OKC improved? As a dog last 20 they are 5-15 SU and 7-11-2 ATS. They have not covered in the dog role in their last 4 games. They have lost and failed to cover 6 in a row vs Miami. Let the buyer beware.
 
Houston's players are well capable of having an off shooting night (the Knicks D just held a team that had scored at least 102 pts in 7 straight games, to 91 on their own court). The kind of night which is many times precipitated by a hard contest played the night before that saw a lot of points scored while going into OT. The very dynamic which made this spot so Under friendly when I was tracking hard a few seasons back. This Under doesn't only rest on what New York might or might not do.

Personally I'll have live total betting throughout the match (what I've been enjoying & will remain my focus for this season), and by my reckoning Houston obv. should feel the effects of Weds. effort (to whatever degree that may end up being) as the game wears on, so hopefully they score above the FG rate early, meaning I'll get access to a live line ideally well in excess of whatever the opener is. If they stink from the start, that makes it much harder, but it won't make it impossible. Just have to wait longer and see how things progress. Most likely, the first half is at the expected FG rate or just above, then the 2nd half ushers in a degree of slow down (unless of course one team doesn't compete from the start, then you'd have the typical blow-out Under result in the making).
 
The thing that may keep me away from the over is the physical condition of the Rockets, not only because of the OT but also because they have been having flu symptoms.
 
Vango's first quarter over in GS is almost scary. GS has scored 82 points at home in their 3 first quarters. They certainly dislike this OKC team and the last time OKC played at GS they won the first quarter 31-27. No one at GS has forgotten that and very hard to imagine them not trying to run OKC out of the building in the first quarter today. Normal play is just to play GS first quarter but OKC put up 33 first quarter vs Clippers last night. Where did they get this 52?
 
52 seems really low. GSW always come out strong, OKC should answer back, don't see any reason this won't be a track meeting right from the start.
 
A trend that I have noticed in NBA for the last 3 years (Holding true in the NFL this year which I have watched and lost money going the other way)... fading the public in the first 12 weeks is money...no need to cap this early in the season..been playing ever side with 72% + (volume >5K) on the opposite side (about 2-5 min before the bell SBspy)..last night again with Tor and Sac ATS (& SU). Looking back at my account it appears to be 24-9 or so. Tonight it would look like a play on NYK...BUT it is too early to call as the percentage right before the game will change.
 
Refs in GS
.0211.0

<tbody>
</tbody>
Brent Barnaky - Profile

[TABLE="class: general"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TH="colspan: 4"]General[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="class: alt"]Jersey Number[/TH]
[TH="class: alt"]70[/TH]
[TH="class: alt"]Avg. Home Score[/TH]
[TD]107.8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="class: alt"]Games Officiated[/TH]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TH="class: alt"]Avg. Road Score[/TH]
[TD]101.8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="class: alt"]Home Team ATS[/TH]
[TD]3-1-0[/TD]
[TH="class: alt"]Home Avg. Margin[/TH]
[TD]6.0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="class: alt"]Home Team W/L[/TH]
[TD]3-1[/TD]
[TH="class: alt"]Avg. Total Score[/TH]
[TD]209.5[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
4-0
0-0
1-0
2-0
1-0

<tbody>
[TH="colspan: 2"]Over/Under vs. the Total[/TH]

[TH="class: alt"]Overall[/TH]

[TH="class: alt"]184.5 or less[/TH]

[TH="class: alt"]185-194.5[/TH]

[TH="class: alt"]195-204.5[/TH]

[TH="class: alt"]205+[/TH]

</tbody>

1-02-0
0-10-0
0-00-0

<tbody>
[TH="colspan: 3"]Favorite or Underdog[/TH]

[TH="class: alt"]Spread[/TH]
[TH="class: alt"]Home Fav[/TH]
[TH="class: alt"]Home Dog[/TH]

[TH="class: alt"]0-4.5[/TH]

[TH="class: alt"]5-9.5[/TH]

[TH="class: alt"]10+[/TH]

</tbody>



IN-DEPTH

Monty McCutchen - Profile

[TABLE="class: general"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TH="colspan: 4"]General[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="class: alt"]Jersey Number[/TH]
[TH="class: alt"]13[/TH]
[TH="class: alt"]Avg. Home Score[/TH]
[TD]104.2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="class: alt"]Games Officiated[/TH]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TH="class: alt"]Avg. Road Score[/TH]
[TD]95.2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="class: alt"]Home Team ATS[/TH]
[TD]4-0-1[/TD]
[TH="class: alt"]Home Avg. Margin[/TH]
[TD]9.0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="class: alt"]Home Team W/L[/TH]
[TD]5-0[/TD]
[TH="class: alt"]Avg. Total Score[/TH]
[TD]199.4[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
3-2
0-0
0-1
2-1
1-0

<tbody>
[TH="colspan: 2"]Over/Under vs. the Total[/TH]

[TH="class: alt"]Overall[/TH]

[TH="class: alt"]184.5 or less[/TH]

[TH="class: alt"]185-194.5[/TH]

[TH="class: alt"]195-204.5[/TH]

[TH="class: alt"]205+[/TH]

</tbody>

1-03-0
0-00-0
0-00-0

<tbody>
[TH="colspan: 3"]Favorite or Underdog[/TH]

[TH="class: alt"]Spread[/TH]
[TH="class: alt"]Home Fav[/TH]
[TH="class: alt"]Home Dog[/TH]

[TH="class: alt"]0-4.5[/TH]

[TH="class: alt"]5-9.5[/TH]

[TH="class: alt"]10+[/TH]

</tbody>



IN-DEPTH

David Guthrie - Profile

[TABLE="class: general"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TH="colspan: 4"]General[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="class: alt"]Jersey Number[/TH]
[TH="class: alt"]16[/TH]
[TH="class: alt"]Avg. Home Score[/TH]
[TD]106.2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="class: alt"]Games Officiated[/TH]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TH="class: alt"]Avg. Road Score[/TH]
[TD]98.8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="class: alt"]Home Team ATS[/TH]
[TD]3-2-0[/TD]
[TH="class: alt"]Home Avg. Margin[/TH]
[TD]7.4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="class: alt"]Home Team W/L[/TH]
[TD]4-1[/TD]
[TH="class: alt"]Avg. Total Score[/TH]
[TD]205.0[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
4-1
0-0
2-1
2-0
0-0

<tbody>
[TH="colspan: 2"]Over/Under vs. the Total[/TH]

[TH="class: alt"]Overall[/TH]

[TH="class: alt"]184.5 or less[/TH]

[TH="class: alt"]185-194.5[/TH]

[TH="class: alt"]195-204.5[/TH]

[TH="class: alt"]205+[/TH]

</tbody>

0-02-0
1-20-0
0-00-0

<tbody>
[TH="colspan: 3"]Favorite or Underdog[/TH]

[TH="class: alt"]Spread[/TH]
[TH="class: alt"]Home Fav[/TH]
[TH="class: alt"]Home Dog[/TH]

[TH="class: alt"]0-4.5[/TH]

[TH="class: alt"]5-9.5[/TH]

[TH="class: alt"]10+[/TH]

</tbody>



IN-DEPTH
Refs seem a little tilted here
 
Over 207 in the GSW/OKC game locked. I think after the loss against the Clippers, OKC will try to remind people why they are top tier in the West. And we all know the way GSW play at home, full throttle. This is going to be a very good game, with a good pace right from the get go. Reffing also seems to help my cause. Going to sprinkle some in the 1st qtr over too.
 
Harden in. Lin to the bench.

<iframe style="width: 1px; height: 0px; border: medium none; position: absolute; visibility: hidden;" class="twitter-tweet twitter-tweet-rendered" allowtransparency="true" id="twitter-widget-0" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>With James Harden back from his bruised left foot, Jeremy Lin is back to role as 6th man.</p>&mdash; Jonathan Feigen (@Jonathan_Feigen) <a href="https://twitter.com/Jonathan_Feigen/statuses/401147753033498624">November 15, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<script async="" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script><iframe style="display: none;" allowtransparency="true" id="rufous-sandbox" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe>
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
Houston's players are well capable of having an off shooting night (the Knicks D just held a team that had scored at least 102 pts in 7 straight games, to 91 on their own court). The kind of night which is many times precipitated by a hard contest played the night before that saw a lot of points scored while going into OT. The very dynamic which made this spot so Under friendly when I was tracking hard a few seasons back. This Under doesn't only rest on what New York might or might not do.

Personally I'll have live total betting throughout the match (what I've been enjoying & will remain my focus for this season), and by my reckoning Houston obv. should feel the effects of Weds. effort (to whatever degree that may end up being) as the game wears on, so hopefully they score above the FG rate early, meaning I'll get access to a live line ideally well in excess of whatever the opener is. If they stink from the start, that makes it much harder, but it won't make it impossible. Just have to wait longer and see how things progress. Most likely, the first half is at the expected FG rate or just above, then the 2nd half ushers in a degree of slow down (unless of course one team doesn't compete from the start, then you'd have the typical blow-out Under result in the making).
Click to expand...

went over
 
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