Thursday 01/30/14 NBA discussion thread

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The Spurs can suck my manhood
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[TD="colspan: 8"][h=4]NBA BASKETBALL BASKETBALL - THU 1/30[/h][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #000032, colspan: 4, align: center"]GAME[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]HANDICAP[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]MONEY LINE[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]TOTAL POINTS[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]MORE[/TD]
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[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Thu 1/30[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]501[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Phoenix Suns[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+10 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 199 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB, align: center"][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]04:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]502[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Indiana Pacers[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-10 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 199 1.952[/TD]
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[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Thu 1/30[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]503[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Cleveland Cavaliers[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]+5.5 2.000[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Over 196.5 1.952[/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]05:00 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]504[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]New York Knicks[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]-5.5 1.909[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Under 196.5 1.952[/TD]
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[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Thu 1/30[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]505[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Los Angeles Clippers[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+5.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 212 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB, align: center"][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]07:35 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]506[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Golden State Warriors[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-5.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 212 1.952[/TD]
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I like both Pacers and Warriors tonight.
Pacers should come with major chip on their shoulder after the loss in Phoenix.
GSW off a home loss and it been discussed that it's not the best schedule spot for the Clips.
 
cleve has lost 13 out of the last 19 games and with the exception of a loss to boston have won and lost the games you would expect….for the most part….the knicks have lost 5…won 5…lost 5…won three…laws of progression would indicate 2 more wins…lol…is varejoe playing tonight…if not then i think i am on the knicks
although it is going to be hard for me to lay 6….i almost never tease the nba but may tonight as indy,knicks,and gsw to a lesser degree have teaser appeal…hope someone talks me out of this
 
My buddy in PHX says Dragic took a bad fall and landed on his elbow hard....could be an issue tonight. Obv I'm on GSW and I think a ML par with GSW and Indy will be on the card....might have to throw someone else in there.
 
Golden State -

when they've conceded at least 100 points this season,...
- is 4-20 ATS (17-7 to Over)
- is 1-14 ATS as a Fave (12-3 to Over)
- is 1-7 ATS as a home Fave (8-0 to Over)

when they've conceded 99 points or less this season,...
- is 17-5 ATS (19-3 to Under)
- is 14-5 ATS as a Fave (16-3 to Under)
- is 7-5 ATS as a home Fave (10-2 to Under)

Liking GS ATS this season means liking their defense to show up more often than not. And when it has, so naturally have the Under results.


GS has held their opponents to 89 pts or less over consecutive games for only the 4th time this season. Off the 3 previous instances, they've conceded an avg of 97.6 pts while going 0-3 ATS (one of these instances being their home 105-103 win over the Clippers on Dec. 25th).


GS has played a home game off a home loss 3 times previously this season. They've won SU by 19 pts (-13.5) & 15 pts (-6.0), and lost SU by 1 pt (-3.5). Both wins Unders, the loss an Over.

-------

By opening lines, the Clippers are on 10-1 & 13-2 Over streaks, and have scored at least 100 pts in 9 of their 11 road games vs. Western opponents this season.

This season the Clippers are 5-2 ATS off a game won SU that was an ATS loss (more generally they are 10-1 ATS off their last 11 ATS losses, and 15-4 ATS off an ATS loss for the season overall).

Clippers are 4-4 ATS in B2B road games, but against their classiest opposition in this spot they've been hammered: losing 91-105 to OKC, 92-116 to SAS, & 92-104 to IND (must be noted they played on the road the night before all these B2B games). Thursday is going to tell a tale about how classy GS really is, since their home ATS record this season is pathetic (8-13), and in recent times they've shown very little (3-6 SU & 2-7 ATS L9: only decent win over a Portland team whose effort simply collapsed in the 2nd h w/33 pts scored, playing a 3rd in 4 nights as well as B2B).

------

Finally, some TNT Thursday double-header stats -

The Dog has dominated this season, going...
7-3 ATS/3-7 SU in the early game (O/U 5-5)
8-2 ATS/6-4 SU in the late game (O/U 5-5)

No instances of the Fave winning both games as of yet.

GS has featured twice @home in the late game, going 0-2 ATS/1-1 SU (2-0 to Over).
LAC hasn't previously featured in the late game on the road.
 
Like the under 212 tonight. last games at GS between GS-POR (208 pts). Like GS moneyline, but don't really like having to lay 5,5 pts, especially looking at the refs to night that favor the road team (avg home margins differentials: 0,3;2,5 and 2,3 pts). Last time they only won by 2 vs Clippers@home. Just realize that Clipps got way less that 24 hours rest considering last match up started @10.30 PM, game duration is about 1,h30 mins +fast pace of previous game (110-103) + plane to take,etc.. + jet lag from their previous road trip to the other conference (eastern)
 
Cavs +7 -120 and Kyrie Over 30 Pts + Assists +110

lean warriors later...

Jazz and nets tomorrow.
 
have a feeling I did this wrong. In any case, Go Suns GO
 
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NBA games are shitty things to follow all the way through, unless you're after a live bet. If not, you only need turn up mid-way through the 3rd. I'm interested in the Under as it's tied so closely with GS doing well ATS this season, so I'm hunting in-game. Curious to see what kind of pace LAC is willing to go at/settle for.
 
took +5.5 clips 1st half figured it would be closer in the half then looking to take GS hopefully at a better line in 2nd half
 
Suns bench 40
Pacer bench 7
Indiana 15 assists 15 turnovers
Suns 18 assits
12 turnovers
 
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