AgainstThePublic
Master of the Pickle Tickle
After what I saw in the WVU/COL televised game a few weeks back, there is no way in hell I put money on WVU. Coaching sucks. May just have to sit this one out or play the under.
Originally Posted by SportsNut
Auburn's schedule just doesnt impress me at all to think they are going to right themselves on the road ina tough place to win . While they were favs and decent sized ones the games @ Miss State and @ Vandy they played a very good 1st Q at Vandy then just fell to pieces.
Average power rating of opponents played: AUBURN 41, W VIRGINIA 29.5
:4_12_12:
Did someone just pound New Mexico? at 5dimes it just went from 5 to 3.5
West virginia offensive production
vs cuse 268 yards ...cuse gives up avg of 438
vs rutgers 333 yards .... knights give up avg of 327
vs marshall 493 yards .... herd gives up 428 yards a game
at colorado 354 yards .... buffs give up 361 yards per game
at ecu 251 yards .............pirates give up 346 yards per game
So wvu is not overachieving vs opponents at all. And note most of these games have been at home making the numbers that much worse when looking over them as a whole.
Tonight they face a defense that is giving up 273 yards a game , and more importantly are giving up just 108 on the ground at 3.2 yards per carry.
A team averaging just 22 points a game , playing against that defense is not a team i would want to lay points with. Especially when you consider who they are averaging 22 points a game against .. villanova ... syracuse ( 35 ) , colorado ( 25 ) , marshall ( 27 ) , ecu ( 24 ) , rutgers (19.7 ) ,... and again .. now they face a defense that gives up 13 points per game and are laying 3.5/
Sure , that is a tough environment to play in at night but Auburn has seen it all playing road games in the SEC where almost every game is like that. They wont be intimidated by the big stage.
As far as i am concerned you can throw out the SEC vs bigeast and the coaching mismatch ( wow what a big one for this game ) and should still love the dog in this spot. Fundamentally looks like the most solid bet on this weeks card including every saturday game. Been drooling over this game since before line releases last week and have not found anything to dissuade me.
nut , this years auburn defense is better than last years.
Am I reading that power rating wrong? Or is a higher number a better power rating, unlike Strength of Sch? Unless I am reading that wrong someone should lose all privelages of making power ratings.
i don't think he was comparing it to wvu's, just pointing out that people were bashing on wvu's schedule as a part of backing aub...and somewhat rightfully so...definitely the best team they've played so far...however, i think he's making the point that auburn's isn't exactly mind-blowing like most years this time of year when they'd usually have a much tougher schedule this far in -- and if he is saying that...i agree. auburn should be undefeated with the talent they have. they've definitely been underperforming.
blue chip, i'm not one that thinks wvu is that good of a team either, but 2-5??? i see no way in hell they come out of that schedule 2-5...think you're giving a few of those teams too much credit
:shake:
Hard to believe since they have played only 2 fairly good offenses and allowed 400+ yds at home . The rest of the teams are incapable of moving the ball most days let alone against an above average SEC defense .
I think the past 3 home games your missing 1 key point and that is Pat White and how much he played . Vs Marshall they had 300 yards of offense when he left the game mid 3rd quarter and were driving again when Brown comes in and throws a pick on the 1st play. Which was the 4th straight drive WVU had moved the ball with ease . I admit Stewart scares me since that COL game and they had a chance to get a TD or FG before half standing inside the 5 yd line and got neither . Later in the game they had the ball inside Marhsalls 10 and went backward getting just 3 points . There really was no reason why they dont score at least 40 something with a tad better execution on 3 plays or so and maybe Pat WHite the entire game . So I think the offense did exactly what it was supposed to do vs Marshall just ahd a few mistakes .
Think it was 317yds on 46 plays when WHite left the game for good with about 7:30 to go 3rd Q 1st and 10 34 of Marshall . They had 2 punts basically due to a fumble losing 5 yards and a holding penalty costing them 10 yds . Otherwise they were getting huge plays 5+ yds a touch .
7+ yd plays 21x
5 or 6yd plays 8x
4yd plays 4x
3yds or less , negative yds or INCs 13x
With White vs Marshall . So after the crap road games the offense did play well IMO .
RU similiar deal the offensive started hitting stride in the 2nd and 3rd Q's but White left with injury about 5:30 to play 3rd Q . With WVU about to get another TD and get there 24 pts.
51plays 284yds with him
26play 7+yds
1ply 5/6yds
2plays 4yds
the rest 22 plys for 3yds or less , negative or INCs
Again some sloppiness couple fumbles backing them up and a 15yd penalty on 3rd and 2 from the RU 14 which made them settle for a FG . probably a TD that was called back on offensive pass interefence.....
So if RU allows 327 yds then WVU having 280 with 5 to play in the 3rd Q is well above avg . With Marshall nearly 320 with 1.5 quarters remain puts them above 500yards .
Syracuse doesnt matter really ...no Pat White ....
@ CU they left alot of points OTB not evening looking at OT . They had 2 TOD one deep in CU territory one at midfield and they had the drive where they had consecutive plays that lost 25 yds in penalties which I believe was when the HB pass was underthrown to the wide open WR> . Still managed about 61 plays for 333 yds ....
The key here will be Pat White making it through this game 100% . Now they said the hand issue was nothing serious just precautionary at the time . The concussion probably was a big deal BUT just like TCU why risk rushing your QB back vs a team you think you can win with your backup. So I think WVU held WHite out last week just to give him another week to heal .
Auburn defense :
220yds allowed at home vs UL Monroe
305 vs Som Miss at home (1-14 3rd conversions but 3 of 4 4th down)
116 @ Miss State( HOLD the laughter)-0/14 3rd down and 0-3 on 4th!)
398 vs LSU at home (4-14 on 3rd down)(178 rushing)
191 yds vs Tenny at home and still almost lost
263 yds @ Vandy (6-17 on 3rd down)
416 yds vs Arkansas (8-17 on 3rd down and 1-2 on 4th) (Smith 35c 176yds)
So whats impressive ? The 2 best offenses they faced which WVU is certainly in there class especially at home putting up 400 or so yards and running the ball 175 yds ? Or was it nearly losing at home to Tenny a team who had scored 6,12,13 and 14 before playing Miss State another team Auburn almost lost to . Vandy mobile QB had a decent rate of 3rd down conversions compared to the 1/28 enjoyed by Miss State and So Miss ........Last 5 games AUburn owns a 3-2 win and 14-12 win thanks to failing to convert a 2 pt conversion Also Auburn missed some Fgs vs Miss State and tenny that I recall...
:cheers:
and more importantly...178/4.7 ypc and 188/4.3 ypc rushing both at home.
tenn was the only other remotely capable offense they played, and i believe that was the day that crompton played so bad he was benched in favor of the soph?? and the rushing numbers looked like they just got away from it too quick, which is a common theme for tenn this year it seems...124/3.8 ypc but foster only touched the ball 8 times...point is obviously tenn was going through some stuff offensively -- you don't just bench a qb out of nowhere because of one poor performance -- he had not been having a good year
holding s miss to 37 yards rushing was pretty impressive -- i guess. they're completely one dimensional though, so i think you discount that.
ulm awful all around team, miss st can barely get first downs without a defense on the field, and vandy is statistically last in their conference in virtually everything you can measure sans turnovers and wins
and more importantly...178/4.7 ypc and 188/4.3 ypc rushing both at home.
tenn was the only other remotely capable offense they played, and i believe that was the day that crompton played so bad he was benched in favor of the soph?? and the rushing numbers looked like they just got away from it too quick, which is a common theme for tenn this year it seems...124/3.8 ypc but foster only touched the ball 8 times...point is obviously tenn was going through some stuff offensively -- you don't just bench a qb out of nowhere because of one poor performance -- he had not been having a good year
holding s miss to 37 yards rushing was pretty impressive -- i guess. they're completely one dimensional though, so i think you discount that.
ulm awful all around team, miss st can barely get first downs without a defense on the field, and vandy is statistically last in their conference in virtually everything you can measure sans turnovers and wins
*BIASED SEC HOMER PICK*
AU has been "licking their wounds" for 12 days...gotten rid of the cause of their internal issues...going back to what they do best: run the ball & play D...solid advantages in players and coaching...used to playing in SEC stadiums - WVU will be no distraction...AU will "smack" WVU & Pat White in da mouth and we all know what happens to White's vagina when he's "smacked" in da mouth.
AU +3.5...AU +145
SUPER parlay:
Shields (-155) 1st 5 and Rays (-155) & AU +145............:cheers:
glad i am not the only one who has noticed this the last few years.
I wasnt saying anthing specific to anyone .
I dont believe in power ratings they are useless just like overall stats are . Everything needs to be looked at deeper and evualated. Of Course Auburn has a better SOS they played 5 SEC games its obvious the SEC is going to grader higher then BE . Problem is they played only 2 decent offenses and lost both at home . They had a 1 pt win and a 1 pt loss and a 2 pt win vs a team you could pencil as for 14 pts at most (Tenny) .
If someone needs to see Power Ratings to realize Auburn was going to get a stronger number well I dont what to say actually . Teams like ECU and COL were much better early on and have since fallen to pieces . I dont see any of Auburn's opponents that are like that . ECU beat VaTech it wouldnt happen today then we watched WVU self destruct @ CU . Winning 3-2 @ Miss State is worse then losing those @ ECU early and the same deal as WVU blowing it @ CU IMO.....
I just dont think power ratings tell much more then obvious. A guy could be hitting 295 but if he is hitting .220 in Sept whats more relevant ? Jose Reyes shouldnttake that personal (lol) .
GL all . Like I said originally Auburn looks attractive catching +3.5 but when I look at there body of work just cant buy it . Its a lost season already when you have to FIRE the new OC mid season in his 1st year . Your admitting its broken bdaly when you do that . If your gonna WVU then look at Syrcause vs Pitt and USF they gave both a run for there money . Cuse might have outplayed USF on the road for a half . :cheers:
Why do you point out that we should take the smiss rushing game numbers with a grain of salt because they are one dimensional. Can you get more one dimensional than wvu ? 113th in the nation in passing.
wvu has zero passing game. they can't protect, they can't get open, and p. white is a puss. Give me the better team, with the better D, the better coach, and 3.5 pts.
not what i meant in terms of it translating differently into this game and/or having anything to do with wvu...in fact i said "(wvu) is more one dimensional than navy" in an earlier post.
i was just investigating auburn's defensive performance...
this is a little comparable to s miss, but a lot of it doesn't translate...i have confidence this aub defense will be able to contain wvu pretty well with rhoads and their speed, but wvu much more explosive and actually have a better defense (although not by too much) than s miss imo, and playing at that venue certainly helps.
i don't think many of you are accounting for homefield as i would though. no question aub is used hostile environments, but i see homefield as helping the hometeam and a lot of you seem to see it as hurting the away team. i mean, it does both, but imo it is a benefit to the hometeam to a greater extent than it is a hindrance to the away team...if that makes any sense.
My point is ... why would anyone expect pat white to play the whole game ?? He gets banged up all the time and sits out with strained labia or a hangnail injury. Auburn is gonna hit people.
I agree with your assessment of the marshall game. WVU dominated and should have scored a lot more and won by a lot more. I bet wvu that game so i watched every play. Pointing that out to show i am not a wvu hater , i bet them when i thought the price was right. But youa re comparing marshall to auburn defensively and that isn't apples to oranges , its apples to watermelons.
In regards to rutgers , that was another game i bet. hehe i had the over which lost and partly because of wvu struggles offensively. I like this game to look at as rutgers is playing good defense and while not in auburns league they are the closest to what wvu has played against this year. They averaged 3.5 yards a carry that game .. why should i expect more than that here ???
Also agree with you on the colorado game but again .. that defense is getting torched by everyone .. so much so that i bet missouri -19 frigging points this week. That was not a great performance when you consider what we know about colorado now ... and that was a bad loss knowing what we know about ecu now.
AS far as the arkansas and lsu run production. 63 yards of arkansas rush attack came on one play , 125 yards on the other 43 carries ( 2.9 a carry ). Auburn did have a less than stellar game vs lsu but that was defending a power run attack .. not the sideways speed based attack that wvu employs. Fastest defense this offense has ever seen since its inception.
I think this years auburn defense is clearly superior to last years ... its the offesne which is the letdown and the defense has tired because of it. That should improve as well here with them running more tonight.
Another thing i look for is the number of third and longs that wvu faces should be increased in this game over most games .... and these guys cant throw for crapola. White will be under more pressure than ever and will take more hits and harder hits than normal ... and this guy is the biggest hatchet wound i have seen in a long long time. Hit him and he quits. Devine cant read a block for crap and when he tries to outrn the auburn defene , he is in for a surprise.
btw since we are comparing lsu to wvu ... what would you make an lsu at wvu line ???? HEHE. check what they were at auburn.
One team gets major class relief and the other team is moving up from 10k claimers to stakes races ............
Nut I have to disagree with you about power rankings. I use them and several other good cappers also use them. Its a great way to give you a line. For this game I have Auburn -1.So there is value from my end. Now its not my deciding factor but it gives me a lean. Auburn may be a public dog to some but by the line movement it sure looks like smart money was on Auburn and late money is coming in on WV . I am not going in on detail why Auburn is the pick,yall have done that already.Plus yall are a lot better breaking down games and explaining it than me. I am the type of guy who can learn anything,but I am not good at explaining it.Thats why I read Nuts and a few others posts....lol.GL boys.
Great info/discussion guys, especially Kyle and SportsNut. I just have one question for SportsNut, and I know the grammar police thing is tired BUT, do you know the difference between there/their?? You are a wealth of knowledge but in every freakin' post I read of yours' you use there when their should be used. Being Fondy's ESQ and all you should clearly know the difference. I am totally just busting on you too....but can you fix it in the future?? LOL
So Miss is a good offense now ?
Great info/discussion guys, especially Kyle and SportsNut. I just have one question for SportsNut, and I know the grammar police thing is tired BUT, do you know the difference between there/their?? You are a wealth of knowledge but in every freakin' post I read of yours' you use there when their should be used. Being Fondy's ESQ and all you should clearly know the difference. I am totally just busting on you too....but can you fix it in the future?? LOL
nobody said s miss was a good offense. i definitely didn't.
at the same time, it's impressive to hold anyone to 1.7 ypc, especially when it's that team's primary objective to run the football and they have a pretty damn good back.
it's a different animal though and a whole new set of matchups with wvu offense than with ark/lsu. rhoads knows how to stop this type of offense, is much more familar with this offense than the other two, and they simply match up better personnel-wise. aub has the type of defense that wvu has struggled with in the past. i think it's not only difficult to compare wvu to akry/lsu and find the "better offense", but it's borderline irrelevant. only relevance is to point out that aub's defense is far from invincible. but this is a completely different set of circumstances. i understand your points nut, and agree with a lot of what you have said, but you're starting to lose me with all of these a+b=c comparisons, even starting to involve nm/sdsu into the discussion haha. i don't think you believe that wvu will run all over aub, do you? they're going to have to just get some explosive, big plays, which they are certainly capable of doing, but i personally don't see them consistently being able to run on aub
should be a good game. maybe i'll look for a good in-game line
i hear ya nut; not even playin it myself, just creating a lil devil's advocate. i'm the one who had originally mentioned s miss, so i assumed that you were referring to my comments. while i disagree with some of your thought processes here, i understand them...and you make a lot of excellent points.
hope you didn't take what i said as gettin pissed or being a dick or "paranoid" haha...wasn't trying to come across like that at all ...just trying to see your points a little clearer...
BOL bud, no matter if you win or lose, there's always a plethora of thought and reasoning behind your plays...much respect
Spot on Nut.
You couldn't have been more right and i couldnt have been more wrong.
Spot on Nut.
You couldn't have been more right and i couldnt have been more wrong.
dont worry
he had me saying that many a times this baseball seasonj:smiley_acbe:
good call nut
We may lob opinions back and forth at eachother but its not about me vs you . I think you know that but just want to make sure everyone else does as well. I like to argue , I like to debate , I enjoy the process . Nothing more to do with it . If I were so right and so I assured I was I would be a wealthy man .
I rarely take anything personal and hope no one else does ..
So no need to say anything . I get more aggitated watching the game listening to everyone from the booth to ESPN praise Auburn .
:shake::cheers:
I thought the writing was on the wall at halftime unless the wvu team was going to wear down from the Time of possession. Things went to well for Auburn first half to only have a 7 point lead.
Had wvu not decided to throw a pass tonight they would have won by even more.
auburn didn't really show up for the second half, but I have never seen a team get away with holding more than wv did last night.
I think this would work with games lines -3 maybe some -7. Your capping the winner so your not going to get burned twice ---say if your play is losing so you take the other side second half but say your play wins second half but doesn't cover game.
auburn didn't really show up for the second half, but I have never seen a team get away with holding more than wv did last night.