Thurs. Nite Auburn vs W Virginia Discussion

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After what I saw in the WVU/COL televised game a few weeks back, there is no way in hell I put money on WVU. Coaching sucks. May just have to sit this one out or play the under.
 
Originally Posted by SportsNut
Auburn's schedule just doesnt impress me at all to think they are going to right themselves on the road ina tough place to win . While they were favs and decent sized ones the games @ Miss State and @ Vandy they played a very good 1st Q at Vandy then just fell to pieces.

Average power rating of opponents played: AUBURN 41, W VIRGINIA 29.5

:4_12_12:

i don't think he was comparing it to wvu's, just pointing out that people were bashing on wvu's schedule as a part of backing aub...and somewhat rightfully so...definitely the best team they've played so far...however, i think he's making the point that auburn's isn't exactly mind-blowing like most years this time of year when they'd usually have a much tougher schedule this far in -- and if he is saying that...i agree. auburn should be undefeated with the talent they have. they've definitely been underperforming.

blue chip, i'm not one that thinks wvu is that good of a team either, but 2-5??? i see no way in hell they come out of that schedule 2-5...think you're giving a few of those teams too much credit
 
West virginia offensive production

vs cuse 268 yards ...cuse gives up avg of 438
vs rutgers 333 yards .... knights give up avg of 327
vs marshall 493 yards .... herd gives up 428 yards a game
at colorado 354 yards .... buffs give up 361 yards per game
at ecu 251 yards .............pirates give up 346 yards per game

So wvu is not overachieving vs opponents at all. And note most of these games have been at home making the numbers that much worse when looking over them as a whole.

Tonight they face a defense that is giving up 273 yards a game , and more importantly are giving up just 108 on the ground at 3.2 yards per carry.

A team averaging just 22 points a game , playing against that defense is not a team i would want to lay points with. Especially when you consider who they are averaging 22 points a game against .. villanova ... syracuse ( 35 ) , colorado ( 25 ) , marshall ( 27 ) , ecu ( 24 ) , rutgers (19.7 ) ,... and again .. now they face a defense that gives up 13 points per game and are laying 3.5/

Sure , that is a tough environment to play in at night but Auburn has seen it all playing road games in the SEC where almost every game is like that. They wont be intimidated by the big stage.

As far as i am concerned you can throw out the SEC vs bigeast and the coaching mismatch ( wow what a big one for this game ) and should still love the dog in this spot. Fundamentally looks like the most solid bet on this weeks card including every saturday game. Been drooling over this game since before line releases last week and have not found anything to dissuade me.


I think the past 3 home games your missing 1 key point and that is Pat White and how much he played . Vs Marshall they had 300 yards of offense when he left the game mid 3rd quarter and were driving again when Brown comes in and throws a pick on the 1st play. Which was the 4th straight drive WVU had moved the ball with ease . I admit Stewart scares me since that COL game and they had a chance to get a TD or FG before half standing inside the 5 yd line and got neither . Later in the game they had the ball inside Marhsalls 10 and went backward getting just 3 points . There really was no reason why they dont score at least 40 something with a tad better execution on 3 plays or so and maybe Pat WHite the entire game . So I think the offense did exactly what it was supposed to do vs Marshall just ahd a few mistakes .

Think it was 317yds on 46 plays when WHite left the game for good with about 7:30 to go 3rd Q 1st and 10 34 of Marshall . They had 2 punts basically due to a fumble losing 5 yards and a holding penalty costing them 10 yds . Otherwise they were getting huge plays 5+ yds a touch .

7+ yd plays 21x
5 or 6yd plays 8x
4yd plays 4x
3yds or less , negative yds or INCs 13x

With White vs Marshall . So after the crap road games the offense did play well IMO .

RU similiar deal the offensive started hitting stride in the 2nd and 3rd Q's but White left with injury about 5:30 to play 3rd Q . With WVU about to get another TD and get there 24 pts.

51plays 284yds with him
26play 7+yds
1ply 5/6yds
2plays 4yds
the rest 22 plys for 3yds or less , negative or INCs

Again some sloppiness couple fumbles backing them up and a 15yd penalty on 3rd and 2 from the RU 14 which made them settle for a FG . probably a TD that was called back on offensive pass interefence.....

So if RU allows 327 yds then WVU having 280 with 5 to play in the 3rd Q is well above avg . With Marshall nearly 320 with 1.5 quarters remain puts them above 500yards .

Syracuse doesnt matter really ...no Pat White ....

@ CU they left alot of points OTB not evening looking at OT . They had 2 TOD one deep in CU territory one at midfield and they had the drive where they had consecutive plays that lost 25 yds in penalties which I believe was when the HB pass was underthrown to the wide open WR> . Still managed about 61 plays for 333 yds ....

The key here will be Pat White making it through this game 100% . Now they said the hand issue was nothing serious just precautionary at the time . The concussion probably was a big deal BUT just like TCU why risk rushing your QB back vs a team you think you can win with your backup. So I think WVU held WHite out last week just to give him another week to heal .

Auburn defense :
220yds allowed at home vs UL Monroe
305 vs Som Miss at home (1-14 3rd conversions but 3 of 4 4th down)
116 @ Miss State( HOLD the laughter)-0/14 3rd down and 0-3 on 4th!)
398 vs LSU at home (4-14 on 3rd down)(178 rushing)
191 yds vs Tenny at home and still almost lost
263 yds @ Vandy (6-17 on 3rd down)
416 yds vs Arkansas (8-17 on 3rd down and 1-2 on 4th) (Smith 35c 176yds)

So whats impressive ? The 2 best offenses they faced which WVU is certainly in there class especially at home putting up 400 or so yards and running the ball 175 yds ? Or was it nearly losing at home to Tenny a team who had scored 6,12,13 and 14 before playing Miss State another team Auburn almost lost to . Vandy mobile QB had a decent rate of 3rd down conversions compared to the 1/28 enjoyed by Miss State and So Miss ........Last 5 games AUburn owns a 3-2 win and 14-12 win thanks to failing to convert a 2 pt conversion Also Auburn missed some Fgs vs Miss State and tenny that I recall...

:cheers:















 
Am I reading that power rating wrong? Or is a higher number a better power rating, unlike Strength of Sch? Unless I am reading that wrong someone should lose all privelages of making power ratings.
 
:shake:
nut , this years auburn defense is better than last years.

Hard to believe since they have played only 2 fairly good offenses and allowed 400+ yds at home . The rest of the teams are incapable of moving the ball most days let alone against an above average SEC defense .
 
Am I reading that power rating wrong? Or is a higher number a better power rating, unlike Strength of Sch? Unless I am reading that wrong someone should lose all privelages of making power ratings.

Power ratings are better the higher they go.
 
i don't think he was comparing it to wvu's, just pointing out that people were bashing on wvu's schedule as a part of backing aub...and somewhat rightfully so...definitely the best team they've played so far...however, i think he's making the point that auburn's isn't exactly mind-blowing like most years this time of year when they'd usually have a much tougher schedule this far in -- and if he is saying that...i agree. auburn should be undefeated with the talent they have. they've definitely been underperforming.

blue chip, i'm not one that thinks wvu is that good of a team either, but 2-5??? i see no way in hell they come out of that schedule 2-5...think you're giving a few of those teams too much credit

I wasnt saying anthing specific to anyone .

I dont believe in power ratings they are useless just like overall stats are . Everything needs to be looked at deeper and evualated. Of Course Auburn has a better SOS they played 5 SEC games its obvious the SEC is going to grader higher then BE . Problem is they played only 2 decent offenses and lost both at home . They had a 1 pt win and a 1 pt loss and a 2 pt win vs a team you could pencil as for 14 pts at most (Tenny) .

If someone needs to see Power Ratings to realize Auburn was going to get a stronger number well I dont what to say actually . Teams like ECU and COL were much better early on and have since fallen to pieces . I dont see any of Auburn's opponents that are like that . ECU beat VaTech it wouldnt happen today then we watched WVU self destruct @ CU . Winning 3-2 @ Miss State is worse then losing those @ ECU early and the same deal as WVU blowing it @ CU IMO.....

I just dont think power ratings tell much more then obvious. A guy could be hitting 295 but if he is hitting .220 in Sept whats more relevant ? Jose Reyes shouldnttake that personal (lol) .

GL all . Like I said originally Auburn looks attractive catching +3.5 but when I look at there body of work just cant buy it . Its a lost season already when you have to FIRE the new OC mid season in his 1st year . Your admitting its broken bdaly when you do that . If your gonna WVU then look at Syrcause vs Pitt and USF they gave both a run for there money . Cuse might have outplayed USF on the road for a half . :cheers:
 
:shake:

Hard to believe since they have played only 2 fairly good offenses and allowed 400+ yds at home . The rest of the teams are incapable of moving the ball most days let alone against an above average SEC defense .

and more importantly...178/4.7 ypc and 188/4.3 ypc rushing both at home.

tenn was the only other remotely capable offense they played, and i believe that was the day that crompton played so bad he was benched in favor of the soph?? and the rushing numbers looked like they just got away from it too quick, which is a common theme for tenn this year it seems...124/3.8 ypc but foster only touched the ball 8 times...point is obviously tenn was going through some stuff offensively -- you don't just bench a qb out of nowhere because of one poor performance -- he had not been having a good year

holding s miss to 37 yards rushing was pretty impressive -- i guess. they're completely one dimensional though, so i think you discount that.

ulm awful all around team, miss st can barely get first downs without a defense on the field, and vandy is statistically last in their conference in virtually everything you can measure sans turnovers and wins
 
I think the past 3 home games your missing 1 key point and that is Pat White and how much he played . Vs Marshall they had 300 yards of offense when he left the game mid 3rd quarter and were driving again when Brown comes in and throws a pick on the 1st play. Which was the 4th straight drive WVU had moved the ball with ease . I admit Stewart scares me since that COL game and they had a chance to get a TD or FG before half standing inside the 5 yd line and got neither . Later in the game they had the ball inside Marhsalls 10 and went backward getting just 3 points . There really was no reason why they dont score at least 40 something with a tad better execution on 3 plays or so and maybe Pat WHite the entire game . So I think the offense did exactly what it was supposed to do vs Marshall just ahd a few mistakes .

Think it was 317yds on 46 plays when WHite left the game for good with about 7:30 to go 3rd Q 1st and 10 34 of Marshall . They had 2 punts basically due to a fumble losing 5 yards and a holding penalty costing them 10 yds . Otherwise they were getting huge plays 5+ yds a touch .

7+ yd plays 21x
5 or 6yd plays 8x
4yd plays 4x
3yds or less , negative yds or INCs 13x

With White vs Marshall . So after the crap road games the offense did play well IMO .

RU similiar deal the offensive started hitting stride in the 2nd and 3rd Q's but White left with injury about 5:30 to play 3rd Q . With WVU about to get another TD and get there 24 pts.

51plays 284yds with him
26play 7+yds
1ply 5/6yds
2plays 4yds
the rest 22 plys for 3yds or less , negative or INCs

Again some sloppiness couple fumbles backing them up and a 15yd penalty on 3rd and 2 from the RU 14 which made them settle for a FG . probably a TD that was called back on offensive pass interefence.....

So if RU allows 327 yds then WVU having 280 with 5 to play in the 3rd Q is well above avg . With Marshall nearly 320 with 1.5 quarters remain puts them above 500yards .

Syracuse doesnt matter really ...no Pat White ....

@ CU they left alot of points OTB not evening looking at OT . They had 2 TOD one deep in CU territory one at midfield and they had the drive where they had consecutive plays that lost 25 yds in penalties which I believe was when the HB pass was underthrown to the wide open WR> . Still managed about 61 plays for 333 yds ....

The key here will be Pat White making it through this game 100% . Now they said the hand issue was nothing serious just precautionary at the time . The concussion probably was a big deal BUT just like TCU why risk rushing your QB back vs a team you think you can win with your backup. So I think WVU held WHite out last week just to give him another week to heal .

Auburn defense :
220yds allowed at home vs UL Monroe
305 vs Som Miss at home (1-14 3rd conversions but 3 of 4 4th down)
116 @ Miss State( HOLD the laughter)-0/14 3rd down and 0-3 on 4th!)
398 vs LSU at home (4-14 on 3rd down)(178 rushing)
191 yds vs Tenny at home and still almost lost
263 yds @ Vandy (6-17 on 3rd down)
416 yds vs Arkansas (8-17 on 3rd down and 1-2 on 4th) (Smith 35c 176yds)

So whats impressive ? The 2 best offenses they faced which WVU is certainly in there class especially at home putting up 400 or so yards and running the ball 175 yds ? Or was it nearly losing at home to Tenny a team who had scored 6,12,13 and 14 before playing Miss State another team Auburn almost lost to . Vandy mobile QB had a decent rate of 3rd down conversions compared to the 1/28 enjoyed by Miss State and So Miss ........Last 5 games AUburn owns a 3-2 win and 14-12 win thanks to failing to convert a 2 pt conversion Also Auburn missed some Fgs vs Miss State and tenny that I recall...

:cheers:


My point is ... why would anyone expect pat white to play the whole game ?? He gets banged up all the time and sits out with strained labia or a hangnail injury. Auburn is gonna hit people.

I agree with your assessment of the marshall game. WVU dominated and should have scored a lot more and won by a lot more. I bet wvu that game so i watched every play. Pointing that out to show i am not a wvu hater , i bet them when i thought the price was right. But youa re comparing marshall to auburn defensively and that isn't apples to oranges , its apples to watermelons.

In regards to rutgers , that was another game i bet. hehe i had the over which lost and partly because of wvu struggles offensively. I like this game to look at as rutgers is playing good defense and while not in auburns league they are the closest to what wvu has played against this year. They averaged 3.5 yards a carry that game .. why should i expect more than that here ???

Also agree with you on the colorado game but again .. that defense is getting torched by everyone .. so much so that i bet missouri -19 frigging points this week. That was not a great performance when you consider what we know about colorado now ... and that was a bad loss knowing what we know about ecu now.

AS far as the arkansas and lsu run production. 63 yards of arkansas rush attack came on one play , 125 yards on the other 43 carries ( 2.9 a carry ). Auburn did have a less than stellar game vs lsu but that was defending a power run attack .. not the sideways speed based attack that wvu employs. Fastest defense this offense has ever seen since its inception.

I think this years auburn defense is clearly superior to last years ... its the offesne which is the letdown and the defense has tired because of it. That should improve as well here with them running more tonight.

Another thing i look for is the number of third and longs that wvu faces should be increased in this game over most games .... and these guys cant throw for crapola. White will be under more pressure than ever and will take more hits and harder hits than normal ... and this guy is the biggest hatchet wound i have seen in a long long time. Hit him and he quits. Devine cant read a block for crap and when he tries to outrn the auburn defene , he is in for a surprise.


btw since we are comparing lsu to wvu ... what would you make an lsu at wvu line ???? HEHE. check what they were at auburn.

One team gets major class relief and the other team is moving up from 10k claimers to stakes races ............
 
*BIASED SEC HOMER PICK*

AU has been "licking their wounds" for 12 days...gotten rid of the cause of their internal issues...going back to what they do best: run the ball & play D...solid advantages in players and coaching...used to playing in SEC stadiums - WVU will be no distraction...AU will "smack" WVU & Pat White in da mouth and we all know what happens to White's vagina when he's "smacked" in da mouth.

AU +3.5...AU +145

SUPER parlay:

Shields (-155) 1st 5 and Rays (-155) & AU +145............:cheers:
 
and more importantly...178/4.7 ypc and 188/4.3 ypc rushing both at home.

tenn was the only other remotely capable offense they played, and i believe that was the day that crompton played so bad he was benched in favor of the soph?? and the rushing numbers looked like they just got away from it too quick, which is a common theme for tenn this year it seems...124/3.8 ypc but foster only touched the ball 8 times...point is obviously tenn was going through some stuff offensively -- you don't just bench a qb out of nowhere because of one poor performance -- he had not been having a good year

holding s miss to 37 yards rushing was pretty impressive -- i guess. they're completely one dimensional though, so i think you discount that.

ulm awful all around team, miss st can barely get first downs without a defense on the field, and vandy is statistically last in their conference in virtually everything you can measure sans turnovers and wins

Crompton was like 8-23 and benched . Tenny had some late chances inside or around the Auburn 40 late and punted rather then try something . They had the fumble in the end zone which give Auburn 7 of the 14 pts and they went for 2 pts and didnt get it down 14-12.

Auburn's FG kicking is medicore it seems as well . Which is of note especially on the road when your going through offensive issues .

With SoMiss they couldnt run it at all but they also had like 300yds passing . So maybe Auburn just said let them beat us through the air . Which WVU is not a dropback passing team but clearly a difference in mobility of QBs .

:cheers:
 
and more importantly...178/4.7 ypc and 188/4.3 ypc rushing both at home.

tenn was the only other remotely capable offense they played, and i believe that was the day that crompton played so bad he was benched in favor of the soph?? and the rushing numbers looked like they just got away from it too quick, which is a common theme for tenn this year it seems...124/3.8 ypc but foster only touched the ball 8 times...point is obviously tenn was going through some stuff offensively -- you don't just bench a qb out of nowhere because of one poor performance -- he had not been having a good year

holding s miss to 37 yards rushing was pretty impressive -- i guess. they're completely one dimensional though, so i think you discount that.

ulm awful all around team, miss st can barely get first downs without a defense on the field, and vandy is statistically last in their conference in virtually everything you can measure sans turnovers and wins


Why do you point out that we should take the smiss rushing game numbers with a grain of salt because they are one dimensional. Can you get more one dimensional than wvu ? 113th in the nation in passing.
 
*BIASED SEC HOMER PICK*

AU has been "licking their wounds" for 12 days...gotten rid of the cause of their internal issues...going back to what they do best: run the ball & play D...solid advantages in players and coaching...used to playing in SEC stadiums - WVU will be no distraction...AU will "smack" WVU & Pat White in da mouth and we all know what happens to White's vagina when he's "smacked" in da mouth.

AU +3.5...AU +145

SUPER parlay:

Shields (-155) 1st 5 and Rays (-155) & AU +145............:cheers:


glad i am not the only one who has noticed this the last few years.
 
glad i am not the only one who has noticed this the last few years.

:cheers:

How many Thursday night tilts over the last two years have we used those EXACT words?
Pat White is out again with a BRUISED vagina........:36_11_6:
And he doesn't see DEFENSES like AU in the Big East....:shake:
 
I wasnt saying anthing specific to anyone .

I dont believe in power ratings they are useless just like overall stats are . Everything needs to be looked at deeper and evualated. Of Course Auburn has a better SOS they played 5 SEC games its obvious the SEC is going to grader higher then BE . Problem is they played only 2 decent offenses and lost both at home . They had a 1 pt win and a 1 pt loss and a 2 pt win vs a team you could pencil as for 14 pts at most (Tenny) .

If someone needs to see Power Ratings to realize Auburn was going to get a stronger number well I dont what to say actually . Teams like ECU and COL were much better early on and have since fallen to pieces . I dont see any of Auburn's opponents that are like that . ECU beat VaTech it wouldnt happen today then we watched WVU self destruct @ CU . Winning 3-2 @ Miss State is worse then losing those @ ECU early and the same deal as WVU blowing it @ CU IMO.....

I just dont think power ratings tell much more then obvious. A guy could be hitting 295 but if he is hitting .220 in Sept whats more relevant ? Jose Reyes shouldnttake that personal (lol) .

GL all . Like I said originally Auburn looks attractive catching +3.5 but when I look at there body of work just cant buy it . Its a lost season already when you have to FIRE the new OC mid season in his 1st year . Your admitting its broken bdaly when you do that . If your gonna WVU then look at Syrcause vs Pitt and USF they gave both a run for there money . Cuse might have outplayed USF on the road for a half . :cheers:

Nut I have to disagree with you about power rankings. I use them and several other good cappers also use them. Its a great way to give you a line. For this game I have Auburn -1.So there is value from my end. Now its not my deciding factor but it gives me a lean. Auburn may be a public dog to some but by the line movement it sure looks like smart money was on Auburn and late money is coming in on WV . I am not going in on detail why Auburn is the pick,yall have done that already.Plus yall are a lot better breaking down games and explaining it than me. I am the type of guy who can learn anything,but I am not good at explaining it.Thats why I read Nuts and a few others posts....lol.GL boys.
 
wvu has zero passing game. they can't protect, they can't get open, and p. white is a puss. Give me the better team, with the better D, the better coach, and 3.5 pts.
 
Why do you point out that we should take the smiss rushing game numbers with a grain of salt because they are one dimensional. Can you get more one dimensional than wvu ? 113th in the nation in passing.

not what i meant in terms of it translating differently into this game and/or having anything to do with wvu...in fact i said "(wvu) is more one dimensional than navy" in an earlier post.

i was just investigating auburn's defensive performance...

this is a little comparable to s miss, but a lot of it doesn't translate...i have confidence this aub defense will be able to contain wvu pretty well with rhoads and their speed, but wvu much more explosive and actually have a better defense (although not by too much) than s miss imo, and playing at that venue certainly helps.

i don't think many of you are accounting for homefield as i would though. no question aub is used hostile environments, but i see homefield as helping the hometeam and a lot of you seem to see it as hurting the away team. i mean, it does both, but imo it is a benefit to the hometeam to a greater extent than it is a hindrance to the away team...if that makes any sense.
 
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not what i meant in terms of it translating differently into this game and/or having anything to do with wvu...in fact i said "(wvu) is more one dimensional than navy" in an earlier post.

i was just investigating auburn's defensive performance...

this is a little comparable to s miss, but a lot of it doesn't translate...i have confidence this aub defense will be able to contain wvu pretty well with rhoads and their speed, but wvu much more explosive and actually have a better defense (although not by too much) than s miss imo, and playing at that venue certainly helps.

i don't think many of you are accounting for homefield as i would though. no question aub is used hostile environments, but i see homefield as helping the hometeam and a lot of you seem to see it as hurting the away team. i mean, it does both, but imo it is a benefit to the hometeam to a greater extent than it is a hindrance to the away team...if that makes any sense.


no i agree with you about the homefield helping the home team .. my concern is that basically all of wvu numbers are from home games ... there is no reason to expect improvement. Different than a team that has been battling on the road and returns home imo. These guys have played alot of home games already including the last three against marshall rutgers and cuse.

From a betting perspective the only way i feel out of this game in the fourth quarter is if wvu is up 12 or more ....... that seems unlikely as i wouldnt expect more than 20 from them.
 
My point is ... why would anyone expect pat white to play the whole game ?? He gets banged up all the time and sits out with strained labia or a hangnail injury. Auburn is gonna hit people.

I agree with your assessment of the marshall game. WVU dominated and should have scored a lot more and won by a lot more. I bet wvu that game so i watched every play. Pointing that out to show i am not a wvu hater , i bet them when i thought the price was right. But youa re comparing marshall to auburn defensively and that isn't apples to oranges , its apples to watermelons.

In regards to rutgers , that was another game i bet. hehe i had the over which lost and partly because of wvu struggles offensively. I like this game to look at as rutgers is playing good defense and while not in auburns league they are the closest to what wvu has played against this year. They averaged 3.5 yards a carry that game .. why should i expect more than that here ???

Also agree with you on the colorado game but again .. that defense is getting torched by everyone .. so much so that i bet missouri -19 frigging points this week. That was not a great performance when you consider what we know about colorado now ... and that was a bad loss knowing what we know about ecu now.

AS far as the arkansas and lsu run production. 63 yards of arkansas rush attack came on one play , 125 yards on the other 43 carries ( 2.9 a carry ). Auburn did have a less than stellar game vs lsu but that was defending a power run attack .. not the sideways speed based attack that wvu employs. Fastest defense this offense has ever seen since its inception.

I think this years auburn defense is clearly superior to last years ... its the offesne which is the letdown and the defense has tired because of it. That should improve as well here with them running more tonight.

Another thing i look for is the number of third and longs that wvu faces should be increased in this game over most games .... and these guys cant throw for crapola. White will be under more pressure than ever and will take more hits and harder hits than normal ... and this guy is the biggest hatchet wound i have seen in a long long time. Hit him and he quits. Devine cant read a block for crap and when he tries to outrn the auburn defene , he is in for a surprise.


btw since we are comparing lsu to wvu ... what would you make an lsu at wvu line ???? HEHE. check what they were at auburn.

One team gets major class relief and the other team is moving up from 10k claimers to stakes races ............

White does get dinged up quite often but he is coming out of games with comfortable leads not the same comparision either . He may very well come out of this game black and blue but dont expect him to sit in a close game because something hurts . Its a team who realizes they have to be cautious with there QB I think nothing more .

I wasnt comparing Auburn D to Marshall D . You said that WVU was underperforming or not exceling vs weak defenses at home ( isnt that why you showed the yds gained vs yds allowed avgs ?) . I simply challenged that and said not really if we look at what happened when White was playing for 2.5 Quarters . I meant as WVU did exactly what it was supposed to do that day with its QB in there and a couple mistakes keep the scoreboard from fully reflecting it . Peopel have this belief that because WVU or any team makes mistakes its somehoiw forced by the opponent. In any sport all good athletes make mistakes and maybe 1 out of 10 times it because of something the opposing defense actually did . If a QB throws a pick because the DB read his eyes thats on the QB not the DB. Anyone I digress . Shit happens and usually its just a mistake , a silly coorectable error .

Again you looking at avgs with Rutgers ? RU is a solid defense but your telling me LSU and Arkansas both have better ROAD offenses then WVU does at home ? So lets focus on howinept the defense was vs both of those teams . The only reason they avged 3.5 is because they had a few negative runs . really Devine had some struggles early ...

Each run until White left the game after the 10yd run :
White -2 yds
Devine -1 yds
White +10 yds
Brown +7
Devine -1
Brown +7
White +18
Devine +1
White +9
Devine +4
Brown +8
Sanders NO GAIN
White +8
Devine +7
Devine +7
Devine +2
WHite +7
Brown +2
Devine +9
Devine +2
White +1
White +1
Devine -9 fumbled
Sanders +2
Brown +6
White +3
Devine +6
Brown -1
Cooper +18
Devine +1
White +10

Thats 13 runs for 7+ yds and 2 more 6 yds , 2 for 3 or 4 yds and 14 for small gains or small loss. So essentially half theer carries they had at least 6 yds and really 7 yds . Thats struggling to run the ball ? Then insert what LSU and ARK did vs Auburn at home and think its likely the run defense plays worse on the road then it does at home ...

As far as ECU and COL. I really dont see how CU winning in OT is better then winning 3-2 @ Miss State when your laying -10 or how you forget to mention how ECU has tanked since losing there star linebacker that defense has never been the same since and it happened as soon as he got hurt .

With ARK your right they had 1 big run and they allowed it vs a medicore back on there home field to me that increases the likelyhoodof Devine or White busting a long one or three...However again overall avgs lie . The other 43 carries produced alot more 129yds .Once they had the led they netted 7 carries for 5 yds so already we are looking at 36 for 124 yds and on that last drive Smith picked up 10 yds on the 1st carry so the next 6 carries were -5 net so the 1st 35 carries of the game produced 134 yds nearly 4yds per carry outside of his BIG run.

As for Auburn and LSU pretty much sums it up I bet LSU because I knew Auburn stunk . I dont think being a -2.5 pt fav means much at Auburn so they are a TD better then Auburn on a neutral field I would make LSU a FG on a neutral field vs WVU. LSU isnt very good either just look at the games vs SC , FLA and Auburn . The SEC is so overrated this year its not even funny . OU and Texas are loads better then those teams have shown IMO.

Well not sure how many 3rd and longs WVU will face when so-so run teams are getting 4yds a clip at Auburn and WVU is getting 7+yd on 50% of there carries . White was 29-38 passing last 2 games at home I guess Casey Dick is good though lol..BTW White has beaten some good defenses in bowl games like SEC's georgia @ home btw, the ACC gaTech , and last year Oklahoma which was okay . Oh yeah in case you forgot WVU beat up on Miss State last year at home as well . Also White has 19TDs vs 5 Ints past 3 years at home......Somehow White never played a big game before yet has 3 home losses at home and 3 major bowl wins....shame that he is the QB still now as a senior ....save the Rich Rodriguez comments because they beat OU will Stewart and wanted Stewart.

I am finished now....BOL:shake::cheers:

 
Nut I have to disagree with you about power rankings. I use them and several other good cappers also use them. Its a great way to give you a line. For this game I have Auburn -1.So there is value from my end. Now its not my deciding factor but it gives me a lean. Auburn may be a public dog to some but by the line movement it sure looks like smart money was on Auburn and late money is coming in on WV . I am not going in on detail why Auburn is the pick,yall have done that already.Plus yall are a lot better breaking down games and explaining it than me. I am the type of guy who can learn anything,but I am not good at explaining it.Thats why I read Nuts and a few others posts....lol.GL boys.

I am saying they are like any other avg they dont show anything that isnt already none. I dont know how Auburn could be -1 so that means essentially they are -10 at home ? When they couldnt even beat ARK SU laying -16 ? WHich means they would be about a TD @ ARK which is to high anyway .

Everyone has to realize that smart money isnt simply early money and I cant point out countless games where lines moved early and lost like Ohio U this week already . The only Joe Pub money that people should worry about is what comes in 15 minutes before a game. The same money at noon today is the same guy betting the game yesterday or Tuesday .

It's all good whatever is helpful is fine for each person. I have been doing this a very long time . Never made power ratings and would guess that I am as good as anyone out there (not saying better but in the same league ) with understanding a line and being able to guess what they should be . I think this line is fair but think this a game where WVU rises up and shows what they really are . I could be wrong ....:shake: GL
 
the case that nut and kyle (and others) have made for each side is exactly why i'm not betting this game hahahahhaha. excellent work fellas
 
So Miss is a good offense now ? The team who scored 7 pts at home vs Boise State . I think some reelevatuing needs to be done on how to look at stats . I guess NMex is a good offense because they scored a ton on SDST last week . Shouldnt be rationalized they faced a team with backups who couldnt walk on to 90% of the colleges in D1 as 3rd stringers . Arkansas couldnt get out if its way vs FLA or at Texas but thats irrelevant ? LSU did what vs FLa and SC on offense ? FUnny how Auburn supposedly has the best defense of the bunch and LSU performed the best offensively that game same could be said for Arkansas looking at Auburn , at Texas and vs FLA....
 
We can go on an on about why Auburn has failed on offense, this interview does all the summing up you need.........Tom DienhartRivals.com College Football Senior WriterAuburn offensive coordinator Tony Franklin knew something was up the minute Tommy Tuberville came into his office. "I looked at his face and I knew he was coming to fire me," Franklin said. "He said it wasn't working out. I said, 'Coach, you trying to fire me?' And he said, 'Yes.' I said, 'Let's get it over with.' I spent the next 10 or 15 minutes getting some things off my chest. I shook his hand, packed my stuff and left." Just like that. Tony Franklin has positive results leading the Auburn offense in the Peach Bowl against Clemson. Franklin arrived in time from his former job as Troy's offensive coordinator to install parts of his no-huddle spread offense for use in Auburn's Peach Bowl game against Clemson last season. The results were positive. Auburn gained a season-high 423 yards and ran 90 plays in a 23-20 overtime victory vs. Clemson. But it was all downhill from there. Auburn's offense never got on track this fall. The Tigers opened the year by gaining 406 yards in a win over Louisiana-Monroe. But Auburn never gained more than 380 in the next five games. A 3-2 win at Mississippi State drew the ire of many, but the nadir was a 14-13 loss at Vanderbilt in which the Tigers gained 208 yards, including just 4 rushing yards in the second half. Tuberville had seen enough. "After evaluating where we are at this point of the season offensively, I felt it was in the best interest of the Auburn football program to make this change," Tuberville said in a statement the day Franklin was fired. "I'm not satisfied with where we are and I am personally going to take a larger role with the offense the remainder of the season. We are going to work harder than ever to make sure we consistently improve as we move forward." Franklin spoke to Rivals.com late Wednesday night in one of his first interviews since losing his job. Q: Why did things go bad? A: "I think it probably wasn't a good marriage from the beginning. You had a dramatic change in style from what you had done previously ? to what you had done your whole life. I came in alone, and I think it was a poor decision on my part and on Tommy's part. I should have known better. "With that dramatic of a change, you have to stay the course. It may not go perfect. It wasn't me walking into an offense that had been really good ? I think 102nd or 103rd in the nation before I came in before the bowl game ? so the chances for a dramatic, overnight turnaround aren't great. Q: Were you embraced by other assistants? A: "I think they tried in the beginning. They are sitting there and all of sudden something foreign is coming in. I was the fifth coordinator (for Tuberville). The only thing that was constant was those guys. I think they tried to do it, they tried to learn. Everything is fine when everything is going well. You have your points of reference you go back to. And their points of reference were totally different. "We went through the same troubles at Troy. The only difference was we brought in guys who believed in it and believed in me. If I went down, they went down. So it's a different scenario than what this was. Several guys who had been in my shoes had gone down before me. I was coming in and trying to make a total culture change." Q: Were you shocked when you were fired? A: "No. As far as realizing this may not be a good deal, I realized that within a couple of weeks of being there that this was going to be a really tough thing. There were some signals that caught my attention that told me this was going to be tough. I really knew when they first called me. My answer was, 'Do you know what I do? Because this is totally different than what you do. I am not willing to change and don't want to learn something else. If you are willing to change everything, we can talk.' "I am a history teacher and I should know. You study what people have done rather than what they say they want to do. There are only two people to blame: Tony Franklin and Tommy Tuberville. We both should have known better." Franklin says Tommy Tuberville is partly to blame for the decision to make a radical change in the Auburn offense. Q: Did Auburn have the personnel to run your offense? A: "I think you can overcome it. When we went to Troy, it was almost identical. The personnel wasn't a great to fit with what we were doing, but we found a way to win without it being perfect. Even though we won (at Auburn), it was ugly doing it. "I think the loss to Vanderbilt was unacceptable. Regardless of the fact Vanderbilt was having its best year in years, it didn't make any difference. You aren't expected to lose to Vanderbilt, so you knew something was going to happen. The collateral damage was me." Q: What was your reaction when you were fired? A: "It was almost a 30-hour scenario. Tuesday morning (Oct. 7), I had a meeting with the offensive players and offensive staff. I did my best impression of George Patton. I felt like I had lost the team and needed to do something to get them back. I then went on the field for two hours and acted like a 25-year-old kid, but I'm 51. You can imagine what that looked like. I was running routes, demonstrating and coached every player on the field. When it was over, I felt like it was a success, that I had won the team back. I had hurt some feelings along the way, some players, some coaches. "At the end of practice, Tommy gathered the team up and said we were under a lot of scrutiny and he was tired of people blaming me and he was committed to this and believed he had gone overboard to try to accommodate what they had done in the past and maybe they needed to do more to accommodate me. He said he was committed to running the offense and committed to me, and if they didn't like it, they could go somewhere else ? that he was going to stay with it. So I thought maybe it worked, maybe I have them back. I had several players come up afterward and say they believed in what I did. So I thought it was going to work. Then, 24 hours later, he came in and fired me." Q: Was it only Tuberville's decision to fire you? A: "I don't know. I don't know how that operation works. It's a unique operation." Q: Have you talked to Tuberville since you were fired? A: "No. I have no personal relationship with him or anyone on that staff. I would be surprised if I talk to any of those guys ever again." Q: What is your next move? A: "I had a business (running camps and clinics for coaches and players) that was very successful that the SEC made me give up ownership of. I did not know I would have to give it up before I came here. I will negotiate back with my former partners to get me back in that business, which I think we'll be able to do. I will work with high school coaches across the country making better, successful coaches. I have written two books and enjoy that process of writing. I will write again. If another Larry Blakeney (the Troy coach) comes along with a phenomenal deal where I can take three or four guys with me and they leave me alone and let me do my job, I don't know if I would do it ? but I would consider it. There aren't many Larry Blakeneys out there in the world. "I had made it very clear to Coach Tuberville that we had worked with the NCAA and there wasn't a problem with (my camps) at Troy and wanted to make sure we could do it there. He told me there wouldn't be a problem. I was there about a month or so and the compliance people came in and said there was a compliance issue with the SEC. I met with them and we never were able to resolve it. I was forced to give up my part of the company. "The SEC says a coach cannot own a clinic business. But every coach in the conference is probably paid by Nike contracts and has to go speak at Nike clinics, and some probably have stock in their mutual funds that is Nike and they have part-ownership in that. But the SEC didn't see that as a problem." Q: Would you have not taken the job had you known you couldn't keep your camps? A: "I would say so. I would not have gone if I had known before I got here." Q: Are you bitter? A: "I have been bitter before in life, and it doesn't do any good. I get angry and get over it. This was a business decision on my part and a business decision on their part. You have to pick yourself up and find the next challenge. I am excited about the next phase of life." Q: Did any coaches or players offer condolences? A: "I talked to some players. It was a unique deal and unique place. I never have been at a place like this before. I never had close relationships. It was probably my fault as much as theirs. I walked out the door there and never heard from any of them ? and don't think I ever will. "If we were 6-0, averaging 35 points, everyone probably would have gotten along and been happy. You never know people until adversity hits. There was nothing that happened that surprised me. But I don't leave with any doubts about my ability as a coach." The SEC forced Tony Franklin to give up ownership in his coaching clinic business in order to continue coaching at Auburn. Q: How long would it have taken to make the offense work? A: "It depends. If you had a couple guys with me who believed in it and were willing to get fired with me, it probably could have happened a lot faster. But with me being there with the way things were, I don't know if it ever would have worked. That's why I think Tommy made the right decision. He had to fire me or other guys, and some of those guys had been with him for 14 years. I think that's a pretty easy decision for him. I think he made the right choice at the right time. It was a calculated gamble to do it in the middle of the week before they played Arkansas. They felt they could beat Arkansas regardless. It didn't happen that way. We'll see what happens the rest of the season." Q: Do you hope Auburn fails the rest of the year? A: "I don't even think about it. People called me during the game when they played Arkansas. I didn't watch the game, I didn't listen to the game, I didn't answer any phone calls. I will do the same thing when they play (West Virginia on Thursday night). I try to let it go. It's a part of life that's done for me. I never will get it back. "For the players, I hope they succeed. Too many times it's about adults and our egos and 90,000 fanatical fans. I hope the players win and are successful, but I don't think about it one way or another." Q: Do you think Tuberville fired you to save his job? A: "I don't think there's any doubt. Every move he has made has been to save his job. Saving his job and doing what's best for Auburn are the same. 'Firing Tony Franklin is going to make us win games,' which is good for Tommy and Auburn. That's what he's paid to do. The reality is he has survived years here in a cut-throat business and atmosphere with people who are out with bows and arrows every day to knock him down. "He is doing what he thinks is best, and he's pretty good at it. He did it a little faster with me, but I'm a little different than the other guys he has had here."
 
Great info/discussion guys, especially Kyle and SportsNut. I just have one question for SportsNut, and I know the grammar police thing is tired BUT, do you know the difference between there/their?? You are a wealth of knowledge but in every freakin' post I read of yours' you use there when their should be used. Being Fondy's ESQ and all you should clearly know the difference. I am totally just busting on you too....but can you fix it in the future?? LOL
 
Great info/discussion guys, especially Kyle and SportsNut. I just have one question for SportsNut, and I know the grammar police thing is tired BUT, do you know the difference between there/their?? You are a wealth of knowledge but in every freakin' post I read of yours' you use there when their should be used. Being Fondy's ESQ and all you should clearly know the difference. I am totally just busting on you too....but can you fix it in the future?? LOL

I feel a rant coming from SN...

:popcorn:
 
So Miss is a good offense now ?

nobody said s miss was a good offense. i definitely didn't.

at the same time, it's impressive to hold anyone to 1.7 ypc, especially when it's that team's primary objective to run the football and they have a pretty damn good back.

it's a different animal though and a whole new set of matchups with wvu offense than with ark/lsu. rhoads knows how to stop this type of offense, is much more familar with this offense than the other two, and they simply match up better personnel-wise. aub has the type of defense that wvu has struggled with in the past. i think it's not only difficult to compare wvu to akry/lsu and find the "better offense", but it's borderline irrelevant. only relevance is to point out that aub's defense is far from invincible. but this is a completely different set of circumstances. i understand your points nut, and agree with a lot of what you have said, but you're starting to lose me with all of these a+b=c comparisons, even starting to involve nm/sdsu into the discussion haha. i don't think you believe that wvu will run all over aub, do you? they're going to have to just get some explosive, big plays, which they are certainly capable of doing, but i personally don't see them consistently being able to run on aub

should be a good game. maybe i'll look for a good in-game line
 
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Great info/discussion guys, especially Kyle and SportsNut. I just have one question for SportsNut, and I know the grammar police thing is tired BUT, do you know the difference between there/their?? You are a wealth of knowledge but in every freakin' post I read of yours' you use there when their should be used. Being Fondy's ESQ and all you should clearly know the difference. I am totally just busting on you too....but can you fix it in the future?? LOL

I have often said anyone who can understand my posts is extremely patient . I type fast , think fast and pay no attention to what I type or what keys I hit (mix in a few mental disorders). A proof reader or editor would be a handy asset . My grammar sucks and I have "fat fingers" (not really) . Which means I am great at hitting 2 keys at once . Many times I read something after I hit submit and think wow thats embarrassing . In all seriousness I do have some issues with seeing things opposite at times . So common mistakes like that tend to be because when I typing fast and thinking fast I just use what pops into my head and that tends to be the opposite usage of what is correct . I'll try to be more conscious of it because it truly is embarrassing when you go back and read it:shake:

:cheers:
 
nobody said s miss was a good offense. i definitely didn't.

at the same time, it's impressive to hold anyone to 1.7 ypc, especially when it's that team's primary objective to run the football and they have a pretty damn good back.

it's a different animal though and a whole new set of matchups with wvu offense than with ark/lsu. rhoads knows how to stop this type of offense, is much more familar with this offense than the other two, and they simply match up better personnel-wise. aub has the type of defense that wvu has struggled with in the past. i think it's not only difficult to compare wvu to akry/lsu and find the "better offense", but it's borderline irrelevant. only relevance is to point out that aub's defense is far from invincible. but this is a completely different set of circumstances. i understand your points nut, and agree with a lot of what you have said, but you're starting to lose me with all of these a+b=c comparisons, even starting to involve nm/sdsu into the discussion haha. i don't think you believe that wvu will run all over aub, do you? they're going to have to just get some explosive, big plays, which they are certainly capable of doing, but i personally don't see them consistently being able to run on aub

should be a good game. maybe i'll look for a good in-game line

Damn your more paranoid then me . I was never talking to you at all today minus whatever I quoted .

The whole SoMiss thing is they are basically a mid major D 1 program playing on the road at an SEC stadium . Chances are a medicore offense isnt doing much there . Whether they got 40 50 60 70 yds wouldnt matter its all basically the same . Fletcher is a nice back but he just isnt going to do much when the rest of offense isnt very good . He had 13c 29 yds if you asked me what I expected before hand I would have said 15 c 50yds there is no difference to me .

I understand the style part of your arguement but your missing mine . I am not saying because those teams ran it WVU will . I am saying there defense is supposed to be so good yet the two best offenses they faced which arent considered very good at all had no problem running the ball. Yes , its a different style and all that but if your a good run defense IMO you stop the RUN period . Whether its the spread , triple option , power I it doesnt matter that is the definition of good to me . Not matching up well . Exploiting weaknesses is a coin flip IMO . You worry about one thing and another thing bites you .

So that was my point about the Auburn Defense everyone is saying how great they are but what I see is a team who had 2 viable tests and failed both times and better is that teams ran on them . Naturally I dont want to see opposing QBs shred them since having a ton of confidence in Pat White would be nuts.

My point about NM is what constiutes a good offense ? The name of the program ? the stats they produce ? the players they have ?

To me its about production . Auburn's defense should not be recieving any praise for slowing So Miss when Boise State goes to So Miss and holds them to 7 points . Boise is a good defense but it doesnt have those SEC athletes that keep getting mentioned repeatedly .

I really dont care how WVU wins or how many rushing yards they have . WHen I bet a team its because there is something that leads me to believe that side will pay . It could be a bad line , a good situation , whatever the case .....

What constitutes ran all over Auburn ? To me move the chains when they need to and thats about all I would care about . I dont think I said WVU will get 300yds rushing or anything . I think they will move the ball and score 20 something points ....and cover .......

If I am wrong so be it its not a huge play for me .

:cheers:
 
i hear ya nut; not even playin it myself, just creating a lil devil's advocate. i'm the one who had originally mentioned s miss, so i assumed that you were referring to my comments. while i disagree with some of your thought processes here, i understand them...and you make a lot of excellent points.

hope you didn't take what i said as gettin pissed or being a dick or "paranoid" haha...wasn't trying to come across like that at all ...just trying to see your points a little clearer...

BOL bud, no matter if you win or lose, there's always a plethora of thought and reasoning behind your plays...much respect
 
i hear ya nut; not even playin it myself, just creating a lil devil's advocate. i'm the one who had originally mentioned s miss, so i assumed that you were referring to my comments. while i disagree with some of your thought processes here, i understand them...and you make a lot of excellent points.

hope you didn't take what i said as gettin pissed or being a dick or "paranoid" haha...wasn't trying to come across like that at all ...just trying to see your points a little clearer...

BOL bud, no matter if you win or lose, there's always a plethora of thought and reasoning behind your plays...much respect

Not at all. I thought you felt I was picking on your thoughts and I really wasnt even commenting with you in mind . Its all good. I am paranoid so it was a poke at myself really . Then I might have sounded irked caused I was pissed at myself for missing the Stars--over parlay I was going to put in because I lost track of time......its all good ......BOL



2nd H - WVU ....all day ......

I love the media.

Auburn this and Auburn that .....

Auburn has not done jackshit ...

Thank the WVU OC for throwing on 1st down at the Auburn 12 and 7 and managing 3 points rather 14 .

So WVU ran 20 plays and got 200 yards .....

If WVU just sticks to running the ball in the red zone they will be fine.

Auburn had 2 ints which helps momentum and gave great field poistion on 1 possession , they had kick return to the 30 , recovred an onside and lead by a whole TD ....if WVU had that they would up 20 now..

One team getting 3 or 4 yards and the other in chunks.....

WVU needs to just keep playing defense and not make any mistakes on offense......

WVU :cheers:
 
Spot on Nut.

You couldn't have been more right and i couldnt have been more wrong.

We may lob opinions back and forth at eachother but its not about me vs you . I think you know that but just want to make sure everyone else does as well. I like to argue , I like to debate , I enjoy the process . Nothing more to do with it . If I were so right and so I assured I was I would be a wealthy man .

I rarely take anything personal and hope no one else does ..

So no need to say anything . I get more aggitated watching the game listening to everyone from the booth to ESPN praise Auburn .



:shake::cheers:
 
dont worry

he had me saying that many a times this baseball seasonj:smiley_acbe:

good call nut

My worst baseball season in awhile ......I used to be real good now to sloppy maybe next year .....its a new learning process each year I am sure I have learned from you as well .:cheers:
 
We may lob opinions back and forth at eachother but its not about me vs you . I think you know that but just want to make sure everyone else does as well. I like to argue , I like to debate , I enjoy the process . Nothing more to do with it . If I were so right and so I assured I was I would be a wealthy man .

I rarely take anything personal and hope no one else does ..

So no need to say anything . I get more aggitated watching the game listening to everyone from the booth to ESPN praise Auburn .



:shake::cheers:


I thought the writing was on the wall at halftime unless the wvu team was going to wear down from the Time of possession. Things went to well for Auburn first half to only have a 7 point lead.

Had wvu not decided to throw a pass tonight they would have won by even more.
 
VK, did you hedge with WVU hafltime bet?

---I got to thinking about implementing this. If you watch one of your plays and at halftime you say it's probably 50% or less odds of covering, why not? You'll get hit with the juice but seems like it might be worth it. Any thoughts on this?
 
I think this would work with games lines -3 maybe some -7. Your capping the winner so your not going to get burned twice ---say if your play is losing so you take the other side second half but say your play wins second half but doesn't cover game.
 
I thought the writing was on the wall at halftime unless the wvu team was going to wear down from the Time of possession. Things went to well for Auburn first half to only have a 7 point lead.

Had wvu not decided to throw a pass tonight they would have won by even more.


It's funny because you watch a game any game and it all breaks down into the same type of crossroads . If that makes any sense . Miami Ohio didnt bury Temple on Tuesday and this here ..

Anytime a team has a chance to bury another and doesnt it almost always comes back to bite them . The game was really lost after the onside recovery having to punt it back and then watch WVU score . As baffled as I was with some of the play calling in a sense you understand it because he did it I would hope in a sense as a sign of respect to the defense . I know on the FG and it took Holtz to the 4th Q fumbled handoff to mention it that the center was nsapping the ball high alot . On that FG drive he did it on 1st and 3rd down and it kinda busted the play both times. The flip side is we still can see why WVU underacheives . Beyond getting just 3 pts from its first 2 tow drives around the opponent 10 they had the dropped pass inside the 5 on the sideline where he ran before he caught but also the shit load of fumbles that they were lucky to recover all of them . Reading some stuff today and seeing the Auburn kicker had struggled at times I knew he was missing that big FG and that was really the door closing on the Tigers there .

That was probably the most I watched of either team so far this year . I think a fair point about the SEC vs BE was actually on Special teams . WVU looked like a bunch of kids trying to break through the Auburn wall . They just seemed to be manhandled and then the returner hit the hole ...

I also though both QBs should have probably took off on a couple occassions especially Burns when they were losing momentum . You need to show your mates you can put the team on your shoulders IMO by making a big play .

Its on to Boise State and SJST now .....I learned alot here:cheers:

 
The fact they put out -3.5 was a sign of who they liked IMO. They can easily put out -3 there but I felt they were looking to attract more Auburn money . Watching how they line certain numbers can be helpful in the long run .

There is nothing wrong with halftime hedges if you really dont like something about your play . The problem is the more decisions you ask yourself to make the strongerthe chance you make a mistake ...Which is actually the pitfall of playing alot of games . You cant put the same effort into each and some plays are made with better decisions then others . At least in my case.
 
auburn didn't really show up for the second half, but I have never seen a team get away with holding more than wv did last night.
 
auburn didn't really show up for the second half, but I have never seen a team get away with holding more than wv did last night.


Yeah it was pretty amazing to watch. might have missed upwards of 17 holds. not exxagerating. No excuse for the poor tackling or inability to get some first downs in the second half though.

We were joking that the 4 leading tacklers in the game were the two wvu guards and tackles.
 
I think this would work with games lines -3 maybe some -7. Your capping the winner so your not going to get burned twice ---say if your play is losing so you take the other side second half but say your play wins second half but doesn't cover game.


Ironically earlier in the day this concept was discussed in the "talk shop" forum under the title of "the unintended middle". go catch out that thread and any others in that forum as they are all high quality.

i did not hedge with wvu.
 
auburn didn't really show up for the second half, but I have never seen a team get away with holding more than wv did last night.


I wasnt watching all that closely but I did I see a few . Think on the screen pass when the WV WR basically was blocking the guy by holding onto his jersey was pretty obvious ( he slipped back and was still holding onto his jersey the cameras were right on it ). I also think Auburn got away with at least one or two though . I know the 3rd down when the QB scrambled for the 1st down on 3rd and 5ish looked like the Auburn player rather then block the WVU played just decided to try and pull his arm of his socket and kept him from tackling the QB.

Holding is one of those things that either gets called to much or not enough since its happens every play . I look at like this it should only be call if clearly changed the outcome of the play not addded a few yards on here or there. Not saying that was the case yesterday but from a everyday standpoint . There is just going to always be holds missed like fouls in the NBA .

That;s why I always say there is no such thing as reality . The plays stand because they were not called if they are called something entirely different may happen . Which is why when I review games I try to identify key moments as that if changed might have changed the outcome of the game either way . As for what transpired yesterday the way I look at every sporting event is that is just how it was meant to play out . Like Game 1 WS though TB was toast and seeing Howard lean into the stands and grab Upton's foul ball only soldified it . If it wasnt Phillies night maybe that ball end up 2 ft out of his reach but because it was there night it found his mitt . Same with Upton's DP with the bases loaded .

Things are just going to happen to make the outcome possible. yesterday maybe it was a few missed holding calls but its always something that aides in a outcome it just often goes unnoticed ...rarely does Team A play its best game and Team B play its best game and no questions are left unanswered ......

I think more relevant is the fact Auburn has every opportunity to bury WVU and didnt there by leaving the day open . With each break WVU got or made the tide swung stronger to them . The Tigers failing was up 17-3 and having the balls to onside kick it and better recover it . Then fail t get a 1st down have to punt it back and watch WVU hit a big play for a TD to reenergize everyone in the place . If Pat White misses that pass its a different story . Which again why I believe what happens is supposed to happen good or bad...

A little philosophy but pretty well entrenched into how I look at games . I did suggest WVU would play its best game of the year because it seemed to line up that way ...improvement from the offense , negative perception of Pat White , overvalued perception of AU defense .....

I think every winning team gets the "breaks" in some fashion:shake:
 
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