Thoughts on the New Orleans Bowl

texasfight

texasfight

Karl Marx sucks balls
Living here in Houston, I casually follow the Rice program and root for them every chance I get. Won some coin on 'em this year as they continued to sneak up on folks week in and week out. But...

For the life of me I would never lay points with Rice against a bowl caliber opponent. Never. Especially considering that out of all the teams playing this bowl season, Rice is the least athletic, and by far the worst recruiting program. It has to be, based on its stringent academic requirements which are borderline Ivy League. Throw in the fact that they might have to rely on their backup QB to move the ball against a more athletic defense and you've got a recipe for disaster.

As for motivation, Rice has been the Dog all year, and they've repeatedly snuck up on teams in conference. Being this is a Bowl game, and Troy is the Dog, I seriously doubt Troy is sleeping on Rice. I made Troy a 4 point favorite with Clement out, and a pick with him playing. With Dillard being such an important component to the offense, Clement's absence is increasingly detrimental to the Owls's chances.

Keep in mind that even if Clement plays, the running component of his game diminishes with the injury. I'll take the points here, as my guy will have it 4.5 or more since I live in Houston. I wouldn't be shocked to get a 6 from him. Maybe for all the Rice backers we can middle it. But unfortunately, even with a dinged up Clement, I see it...

Troy 27 Rice 26
 
I posted this on another thread. I also read that Rice suspended two players today, one of which was a starting CB. It was on a message board so I'd like verification. But here goes.

Let's take a look at how those games went and Rice's season over all. Here are some factoids that have to scare off the chalk player. And keep in mind, there's not a huge talent difference between the two leagues. Let's be realistic. Here goes:

  • Rice has been outyardaged in 8 games this year and played even (essentially) yardage wise with SMU. In other words, they've only out-yardaged 3 teams. If I told you they were going to be outyardaged tonight would you lay the points? And, keep in mind Clement was healthy in those 12 contests. He won't be tonight
  • Rice has been outrushed by 8 of its 12 opponents. Let's face it, with Clement dinged they'll need to outrush Troy tonight to win, much less cover the number.
  • In five of Rice's 7 wins it has won the turnover battle. The other 2 wins, wins in which the teams played even in this category, Rice won by a single point. Troy is prone to turn the ball over for sure, but I usually prefer my chalk to be able to show me some covers where they play even in this category. We all know counting on turnovers is fools gold.
  • In its 7 wins, Rice allowed opponents 4.85 yards a carry. Again, these are wins, and this stat is indicative of keeping teams in ball games. Two rushing attempts for a first moves the chains shortens the game and makes the liklihood of holding on to the ball and playing most of the game within the number pretty good. If Rice didn't need to win by basically a TD I wouldn't have posted this stat.
Or, if you'd like we can get into the X's O's side where Rice goes 215 and 235 at the two DE spots, and 255 and 280 at the two DT spots. Going up against 290 lb on average across Troy's Oline made up 3 year letterman Juniors and Seniors. Troy will run the ball. Will Rice, especially if their passing game is iffy?
 
on it with you, Texas. unpopular pick, to say the least...but Rice's defense is SO bad, it's worth a shot imo. Love the over more as well.

great writeup though, bud.
 
Texas - I totally agree with you.

I cant pull the trigger on either of these teams.

Rice defense is terrible.

GL
 
It looks like Troy to the over is the play. Not over yet, but does anyone else notice the the huge difference in athleticism between the two squads?

I was at the Texas vs. Rice game earlier this year, and the lack of athletes on this Rice bunch is unbelievable considering they went bowling.
 
texasfight said:
It looks like Troy to the over is the play. Not over yet, but does anyone else notice the the huge difference in athleticism between the two squads?

I was at the Texas vs. Rice game earlier this year, and the lack of athletes on this Rice bunch is unbelievable considering they went bowling.
Click to expand...

Pure SPEED and playing great! I must say that if Clement was playing this would be much diferent. But he's not, and thats why I was on Troy.:shake:

Couple more scores should wrap this up...
 
:bow: You couldn't have been more right, I couldn't have been more wrong. I am not sure Rice could tackle some local high school teams I know. Overall Troy was too fast and way too physical. All night those Rice boys were pounded by those Troy Men...

That under was painful!

Hopefully we are not on opposite sides 2morrow
 
Thanks everyone. You win some and you lose some. But the cool thing on this site is that all the cards are on the table and no one is going into these games flying blind. I've tailed Sportsnut and Everythingthatsgreen after their thoughts have changed my original line of thinking on a play.

With Troy, I made them a 4 point favorite and they were my play of the bowl season without Clements in the lineup. It ended up working out. Looking forward to seeing everyone's thoughts on the remaining games.
 
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