The Thursday Nighter

[tazz]

NFL (89-73)
CTG NFL (15-14)


3-0 monday night hitting my largest wager of the regular season with indi...everything lined up on that game and it played out as i thought......i lean to the over and i still may make it a play....i am playing oregon (and possibly the over in the bowl game) but i am sticking to just posting nfl at this site for the time being...writeup coming


Minni +4



good luck and have a good weekend

 

[tazz]

1 - minni is better running the ball and stopping the run
2 - the packers have won at home by more than 4 twice this year, that was against the lions and arizona...those teams suck, other than that they have not won a game this year at home, losing by 35 to the pats, 28 to the jets, 26 to the bears, 7 to new orleans, and 3 to the rams
3 - minni has lost by 6 or less in 8 of the past 9 at lambeau and 3 or less in 5 of the past 8
4 - jackson is a better quarterback than johnson, i saw the end of the game last weekend and he was moving the ball in the air vs the jets...strong arm and also has the mobility as he rushed for a couple first downs....

call it Minni 23 GB 14

line of scrimmage stats and situations coming

 

[tazz]

when minni has the ball, they average 4.2 ypr vs 4.1 ypr, 5.6 yps vs 5.9 yps, and 4.9 yppl vs 5.1 yppl...they will be going against a gb defense that allows 4.1 ypr vs 3.9 ypr, 6.1 yps vs 6.0 yps, and 5.2 yppl vs 5.1 yppl

when gb has the ball, they avearage 4.1 ypr vs 4.2 ypr, 5.8 yps vs 5.9 yps, and 5.1 yppl vs 5.1 yppl...they will be going against a minni defense that allows 2.7 ypr vs 3.9 ypr, 6.1 yps vs 5.8 yps, for a total of 4.9 yppl vs 5.0 yppl

for people that want it simpler, gb on offense is 17th and 17th passing...minni on defense is 13th vs the run and 16th vs the pass....minni on offense is 13th rushing, 26th passing...gb on defense is 17th and 22nd


minni qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation.....gb is 6-11 ats as a home favorite in their past 17...minnesota has won the past 2 meetings at lambeau....minni's offensive line is huge, they will pound the ball at gb....gb will not be able to run on minni...favre is going to have to put it up 40 times, with a weak offensive line he won't get much time and he will throw some picks...


flava is on my pick so looks like he may get a win lmfao

 

[tazz]

i would wait some as this line may be pushed up even more as the public eats up favre's last game in gb

 

[tazz]

i will be playing some on the ml as well but won't count it as a posted play...that is all

 

[abcs]

What was the score when jackson came in and was movin the ball against the jets? To say hes a better qb than johnson is laughable

 

[tazz]

ok, fine, johnson is a better quarterback....i'm on minni ats and ml any freaking way anyhow lol

 

[abcs]

No doubt johnson has struggled the last 2 games.. But the guy won like 8 in a row last year and won a superbowl. This guy has played like 2 games or about 4 quaters. He might have looked good against a prevent d.. but he has yet to prove himself.

Good luck bud

 

[euchre_robot]

gl im gonna tail ya

 

[mogo]

here is what i like to see and a reason i'm on GB:

"Favre has made a quarterback-record 255 consecutive starts, and he's been at his best at home, going 88-29 at Lambeau Field. Green Bay is 40-5 under Favre at home when the game-time temperature is below 35 degrees - temperatures are expected to be in the 30s with a chance for rain and snow when Thursday's game kicks off. "

 

[tazz]

yes, you have a point there mogo...but favre is done imo

gl euchrerobot, wish ya win.....gl to you as well abcs, you have valid points there

i will most likely be on the over and/or a tease of minni/over....i will till closer to gametime to post those if i do

gl fellas

 

[mr21]

here is what i like to see and a reason i'm on GB:

"Favre has made a quarterback-record 255 consecutive starts, and he's been at his best at home, going 88-29 at Lambeau Field. Green Bay is 40-5 under Favre at home when the game-time temperature is below 35 degrees - temperatures are expected to be in the 30s with a chance for rain and snow when Thursday's game kicks off. "

I believe most of those 5 losses (<35F) were during the last couple of years. Also look at Green Bay's recent home record. Good luck but this is a tought game to bet on IMO.

 

[tazz]

yup, i agree with mr21...tonight is a tough game to bet on....just a regular wager on minni...each capper has his/her own ways to make money...i for one believe that standard bet is not the way to go...i like playing my fave games heavier than others, this is not one of my faves..

the line just moved and so i am adding the total and a tease...these 2 plays are basically half my minni ats bet


Over 37.5

2 team tease of Minni +10.5 & Over 30.5

 

[tazz]

minni was lucky to cover in terms of yardage stats but these divisional games come down to a play or 2...i was watching with a couple buddies and i said, time for a pick 6 by favre and that exact play he threw it....bad additions on the over and the tease (lesson learned) and only 1-2 for the night but hit my bigger play and all is well...see ya fellas this weekend

 

[abcs]

You still think jackson is a good qb

 

[tazz]

no, not really abcs lol

 

[abcs]

Yea i had read a bunch of inside info sayin they didnt want to play the kid at all this year. They knew he wasnt ready. Oh well.. its not like gb has a good defense either.