The Sports Cruncher's 2015 CFB Week 08 Lines & Market Play

[TheSportsCruncher]

.6 Unit: CONN +4 2nd half @ CIN

 

[DwightS]

.6 Unit: CONN +4 2nd half @ CIN

Tailed this one. Been a while since I've taken a beat that bad. Nice pick

 

[TheSportsCruncher]

Yeah, pretty brutal beat UConn not getting the TD late and then giving one up. Probably the difference between a winning and losing day, though not much luck on these other shitty teams I've got bets on right now, lol.

 

[TheSportsCruncher]

Under 28 2nd half @ USC, put didn't get on in time to post it.

0.5 unit: OSU @ RUTG Under 28 2nd half

 

[TheSportsCruncher]

Buy back on Boise +34 (-105 5D) for 1 unit.

 

[TheSportsCruncher]

0.6 Unit: WYO @ BSU Under 54 2nd half

 

[TheSportsCruncher]

Umm, 27, it was Under 27, lol. don't know where TF that came from, lol.

 

[dogman]

SC,

Curious on your thoughts why you buy back on some of your plays when you have got a good line on your original bet. It seems like the more +EV would be just let the original play ride with no bet on a middle try. Good job this year.

 

[TheSportsCruncher]

It would be more +EV, frequently. I usually bet fairly flat between .5 to 1 unit, so when I buy 2+ units it's for the express purpose of setting up a middle. It just so happens that I bet 2+ units on the weakest opening lines, which is why they've been winning at a higher rate, lol. Of course, the only 2 unit bet I forgot to buy back on yesterday, ODU, outgains FIU and can't cover +14.5, . I just missed my biggest middle play of the year on the CLEM/MIA total by a 1/2 point. I've hit one baby middle (push & a win) this year, and that's it. It's not a lucky year at all to be this far in and not hit a full middle.

 

[dogman]

Got it, thanks