The Sports Cruncher's 2015 CFB Week 08 Lines & Market Play

T

TheSportsCruncher

Pretty much a regular
2 Units

Old Dominion +14.5 @ FIU
Duke +4.5 @ VT (-115)
Toledo -9.5 @ MASS

1.2 Units

Wyoming +32 @ BSU (-115)
South Alabama +5 @ Texas State
Connecticut +13 @ CIN
UNC -14 vs UVA (-115)
Nebraska -6.5 vs NW (-115)
Syracuse +6.5 vs PITT

1 Unit

Boston College +8.5 @ Louisville

.6 Unit

Maryland +8.5 vs PSU
Illinois +7 vs WIS
Mississippi -6 vs TA&M (wouldn't surprise me if it went down, though, after Ole Miss losing 2 in a row)
EMU +27.5 @ NIU

.5 Unit

Kansas +35 @ OKST
New Mexico +7.5 @ SJSJ
 
Adding for 0.5 unit: TEX -3.5 vs KSU

KSU's demoralizing loss to TCU had a lingering effect it would appear, with symptoms difficult to distinguish from death. They don't have a QB with any sort of confidence right now. Texas had a great game running the ball last time out in the upset of OKLA. Maybe they've figured some things out that will carry over. KSU just doesn't have the offensive weapons to regain any swagger on the road versus a Texas team with some home field advantage to start the game, for once. Bill Snyder is the wizard, but he's not Jesus, I don't think he can raise the team from the dead well enough to cover this week. Still, just a small play, because you know, Texas, lol.
 
I hate it when some lines come out later than the first wave, makes it harder to catch them right off.

Adding for 1.2 Units: Army +10.5 @ Rice
 
Adding for 0.5 Unit: MTU +7.5 @ LT

Not a lot of line value, but MTU does have a good match up with their passing game versus a very suspect LT secondary.
 
Adding for 0.5 unit: FAU -5.5 @ UTEP

UTEP is my lowest rated FBS team right now, by a healthy margin. Going to bet even small line value against them right now.
 
The specific injuries they took just hurt them too much. hard to lose those two and be competitive at utep .. .we simply can't recruit the depth because the city is impossible to recruit to ... because it is a horrible town.
 
clowncar said:
The specific injuries they took just hurt them too much. hard to lose those two and be competitive at utep .. .we simply can't recruit the depth because the city is impossible to recruit to ... because it is a horrible town.
Click to expand...

Yeah, losing the 2 key pieces of their offense has really done a number on them physically and mentally. It's too bad, they were a competitive team for much of last year. I probably made more money of UTEP Unders than anything else last year.
 
Looks like Dr. Bob or whoever still hates Wyoming is firing against the Cowboys again (the team that has covered for me the last three weeks). The line is up to +35 so I'll buy another 1.2 units on them. Should be able to pick up at least 4 points of line value from there.
 
Adding for 1 Unit:

UL Monroe -1.5 @ Idaho

Getting some line value because of last week's games where Idaho won straight up versus terrible Troy, while ULM got waxed by Appalachian. Idaho still has the much worse defense -- ULM should get enough going on the ground to win and cover. Of course the same thing that creates line value makes it psychologically a bit dangerous with Idaho gaining confidence and ULM now traveling after a demoralizing loss. More often than not teams come to play each week, though. Both teams know this is one the of the few winnable games they have this year.
 
Thx Steed.

3 Units:


CLEM @ MIA Over 53


Buying 3 to set up middle/buy back. This one will go up, or at least it should, lol. Miami will be passing all game, and CLEM should have success running and a bit passing as well.


1 Unit:


CAL @ UCLA OVER 64
AUB @ ARK OVER 48
KU @ OKST UNDER 62.5
UK @ MSST OVER 54
FSU @ GT OVER 56


.6 Unit:


USM @ CHAR OVER 56.5
TULN @ NAVY UNDER 58
TOL @ MASS OVER 59.5
TA&M @ MISS OVER 66


.5 Unit:


NCST @ WAKE UNDER 47
UVA @ UNC OVER 63
UTAH @ USC OVER 58
 
Some rain forecast for areas this weekend, including the areas of many of my Overs. Grr. The highest wind forecast so far at 16 mph is on my biggest Over as well, CLEM @ MIA. Double GrrrGrrr. I don't want to have to dance around getting off while the number is still above and then rebuying when it goes low, but if the weather forecast gets bad enough then that's what it will come down to.
 
hey Crunch what do you got on the Cinci/Uconn game? Took +13 early thinking the line would move for .5u but worried I am sitting with dead money there
 
Added some smaller total plays. That should be it for the week barring some line moves putting things into a playable range (and I'll still probably play MIZZ @ VAN Under at some point, too).

3 Unit:

Clem @ Miami Over 53 (bought extra to set up buy back)

2 Units

Old Dominion +14.5 @ FIU
Duke +4.5 @ VT (-115)
Toledo-9.5 @ MASS (has gone up still playable for 1.2 at a minimum)

1.2 Units

Wyoming +32 @ BSU (-115)& Wyoming+35
South Alabama +5 @ Texas State
Connecticut+13 @ CIN
UNC -14 vs UVA (-115) (changed from -12 right before I couldget it)
Nebraska-6.5 vs NW (-115)
Syracuse+6.5 vs PITT

1 Unit

Boston College +8.5 @ Louisville
UL Monroe -1.5 @ Idaho
CAL@ UCLA Over 64
Auburn @ Arkansas Over 48
Kansas @ Oklahoma StateUnder 62.5
Kentucky @ Mississippi St. Over 54
Florida St.@ Georgia Tech Over 56

.6 Unit

Maryland+8.5 vs PSU
Illinois +7 vs WIS
Mississippi-6 vs TA&M (wouldn't surprise me if it went down, though, after Ole Misslosing 2 in a row)
EMU +27.5 @ NIU
Southern Miss @ Charlotte Over 56.5
Tulane @ Navy Under 58
Toledo @ Massachusetts Over 59.5
TexasA&M @ Mississippi Over 66
FloridaAtlantic @ UTEP Under 58.5
Western Kentucky @ LSU Over65.5
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma Over 74.5
Connecticut @ Cincinnati Over 57.5
Iowa St.@ Baylor Over 81.5
Houston@ UCF Under 57

.5 Unit

Kansas+35 @ OKST
New Mexico+7.5 @ SJSU
NC St. @ Wake Forest Under 47 &Under 48.5
Virginia @ North Carolina Over 63
Utah@ USC Over 58
Tennessee @ Alabama Under 56
Penn St.@ MarylandUnder 48
Colorado @ Oregon St. Over 60

<strike></strike>
 
It's already scooting down some more, ksimp.

No action plays for me on the Tuesday night game in a rare display of discipline, lol. If the total had stayed at 62+ I prolly woulda' dropped a little action the Under, but the line and total are both super close to mine now, so no can justify. After liking a lot of plays on the Thursday and Friday night games last week I like almost nothing for those games either -- gonna' be boring until Saturday, other than enjoying the Thursday/Friday games, which will actually be some really fun/interesting match ups.
 
Week #7 Results and Year to Date

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Played a lot of totals on slim values based on profiles. In spite of gaining tremendous line value on most plays, just didn't run well in so many of the games, and ended up down for the week because of the high volume of totals. Many of the games had a flukey high scoring half if I had the Under, or a good half and a dead half if I liked the Over. Scaling back to the number of totals played and the amounts somewhat as well this week. Mostly sticking to line value. Top totals based on line value alone did well, as did the sides. Doing so much better at sides than totals this year, lol. Loose teaser action would have been a winner if not for the Michigan State fluke win. I had Michigan at -2 in a ties win teaser, so of course the most insane finish of the week costs me a bet, because that's how I run, lol. Still up 26 average size bets on the year after my first losing week since week 1.
 
Adding for 1 Unit: OSU @ RUTG Over 59

Still not sure of RUTG WR Carroo's status, but good value here either way. This one just opened and is going up.
 
Adding for 0.6 Unit: GASO @ APP Over 59

If you throw out both of these two teams first games of the season against WVU & CLEM, respectively, they are averaging 48.5 and 44 ppg, respectively. Yes, they both possess better defenses than the teams they've racked up these points on, but at the end of the day they're still top 20 offenses, by my ratings, higher ranked than both their defenses.
 
Thx, Play2. :)

Thx, Indy.

I got a great number on the CAL @ UCLA Over 64, so I'm going to play for the middle with the 2nd half. UCLA's lead is big, they start the 2nd half with the ball, Paul Perkins is dinged up. CAL's offense not playing up to the projections right now, UCLA getting pressure on Goff's pocket.

1 Unit: CAL @ UCLA Under 34 2nd half (EV 5D) ***Middle play***

As a standalone play I think it has some value, too.
 
Rice total dropping, probably because of the billion inches of rain forecast for Texas tomorrow. I'll throw a unit on the Under 54 there, and see what happens.
 
TheSportsCruncher said:
Yeah, losing the 2 key pieces of their offense has really done a number on them physically and mentally. It's too bad, they were a competitive team for much of last year. I probably made more money of UTEP Unders than anything else last year.
Click to expand...

Two key pieces are Jones and who?
 
Friday night action play, where my action plays usually hit at about 6%, because the Football Gods hate me:

1/2 unit: Utah St -4 @ SDSU (-103 5D)

I'll tell you the 100% reason I'm making this play, and it's not even for action, really. If you've looked at my TSCMUGs for the games so far this week, the "Best&Worst" spread has predicted the straight up winner and ATS winner of every game so far this week. B&W really likes Utah State tonight...so there you have it.
 
Adding for 1.2 Units: NMSU +3.5 vs TROY

WTF - Wrong Team Favored. Troy's offense has gone ice cold the last few games while QB Silvers has battled a foot injury. He is "?" this week.
 
Billy Walters on UVA @ UNC Under smells like a fake to me, I see no reason to like that, unless you really think UNC defense can hold Virginia to less than 20. It's possible, but I think Virginia gets 20-21 points, with UNC in the mid to upper 40s. A 2nd half Crush n' Cruise is always a concern with a large spread, but I can't say no to even more line value, so adding another unit on Over 59, thinking the line will rebound at least back to 61 if not higher.
 
I took USM @ CHAR Over 56.5 for 0.6 unit when it opened, so now I'm playing purely for the middle with the Under 64 for the same amount, as my projection is 60.4.
 
HOU -13 1st half @ UCF
HOU @ UCF Over 27.5 1st half

I have Under 57 for the game, but this game also sets up as the type where HOU can cover the Over by themselves in the first half. They are on the road, but UCF hasn't shown any pride playing at home...or anywhere, really. Their offense is so unbelievably bad right now.
 
Adding or 0.5 unit each:

Buffalo +0.5 1st half vs Ohio (-105)
Wyoming +21.5 1st half @ Boise St.

Yes, I have a lot on Wyoming right now. But crikeys, they are playing decently as of late. I think they'll have SOME confidence on the blue turf tomorrow.
 
I've got 2 Units on Toledo -9 so doing a partial buy back with UMass +14.5 (-108) for 0.6 unit. Waiting til the morning for the other buy backs, hoping for more line movement.
 
UVA @ UNC total hasn't budged from the 59, so going to drink the juice on the extra unit I bought there.

Leaving soon for family activities, so have to do some buy backs earlier than I wanted.

I have Duke +4.5 (-115) for 2 units, so buying back .7 unit with VT -3 (-110)
 
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