The Sports Cruncher's 2015 CFB Week 04 Lines & Market Plays

Adding for 1 Unit: Indiana -3 @ Wake Forest (-115 BOL - how gracious are they to let me get onto 3 for just 10 cents?)

Wake hasn't faced a truly competent balanced offense yet this year -- Indiana's offense is big step up for them. Further hurting Wake's chances are the loss of QB Wolford for this game. Backup Hinton mostly struggled against a poor Army secondary. Wake up and smell the coffee, I don't think the Forest covers for a 3rd straight week.
 
I didn't see where you played a side or total on Boise @ Virginia, Sportscruncher.

What's your thinking on that game?
 
TahoeLegend said:
I didn't see where you played a side or total on Boise @ Virginia, Sportscruncher.

What's your thinking on that game?
Click to expand...

With the injury to Boise QB Finley I think the opening number value was definitely on Virginia and the Under, which is how the market has gone. The numbers moved quick enough that I didn't get a bet in at any numbers I liked. For action I'd maybe take UVA ML at this point.
 
My week 4 Lines

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Adding for 1/2 Unit: USC @ ASU Over 62

The totals on the SoCal vs. Arizona schools have been moving in the wrong direction, in my opinion. USC is a dead Over team this year, gaining and giving up yards a plenty. UCLA is trending in the other direction. After a good opening game for QB Rosen, he's cooled off considerably and the Bruins have had to rely on their running game. UCLA's defense is much, better, too. They suffered another blow losing LB Jack, but get CB Adams back this week. Arizona is more of an Over team than Arizona State, it is true, and that is probably what is driving the action right now -- but is the difference enough to make the total in the UCLA@ARI game 4 points higher? I don't think so. All 4 of these teams play at a pretty fast pace, and I wouldn't be inclined to play the Under in any match up of these teams. Now that there's a decent # available on one of the Overs, I'm going to bite. I loved the Over in the STAN@USC game last week...and pretty much only, me, lol. No service plays on the Over and the number crept down a bit during the week. Well, it's deja vu all over again this week, as far as I'm concerned.
 
The regular sports feeds for weather for the East coast games don't make it sound nearly as bad as this:http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/top...id=mailsignout

So it looks like it's going to be worse than anticipated in some area. Most of those totals have dropped already, and even had some line value to begin with -- speaking of the Virginia, East Carolina and Duke games. Probably why the Duke spread is coming down as well. The Virginia game being Friday night is still going to catch some rain and wind, it looks like.

Even though I've lost several points of value on these two totals from earlier lines, I'm still going to add...

1/2 Unit Each:

BSU @ UVA Under 49
GT @ Duke Under 56
UVA +2.5 vs BSU

I don't show any real line value on Virginia, but if the weather gets ugly I like taking the home team and fading a first time starting QB for Boise.
 
Thx, Play2

Adding for 1 Unit: Stanford @ Oregon State Over 44.5

Stanford QB Kevin Hogan is "?" with an ankle right now, but from what I've read he's got a good chance of playing, as it's his non-plant foot that's sprained. Hogan at 80% is better than their inexperienced options at backup. The Stanford offense took a game and half to warm up this year, and they're now looking like the seasoned offense they were supposed to be. At the same time, their younger defense probably won't achieve the high rankings that that unit has earned in the past. ORST QB Collins is fast and should make some plays with his feet, if not his arm, so much.

If Hogan plays I like a Stanford 31-20 win. If he doesn't play my total is almost dead on the 44.5, which means I may try to juice it out if I can get it at the same number. At the same time I'll add a play on Oregon State at anything +12 or better, and make it a full unit if a number higher than +14 is still available.
 
I already took Kansas +13 @ Rutgers when it opened for a 1/2 unit, and now that +14.5 is available I'm adding another 1/2 unit. I think their run game keeps them in it, actually.
 
Lemme' add a funsie teaser or two. I never recommend playing teasers in college football, lol.

1/2 Unit 10.5 point ties lose teaser (-115 5D)
BYU +17.5
Indiana +7.5
Alabama -27.5

1/2 Unit 9 point ties win teaser (-104 5D)
CMU +35
FAU -1
NIU +14
 
Adding for 1/2 Unit: UCLA -3 (+105 5D) @ ARIZ

Not a ton of line value here, imo, but being able to make it a + juice wager makes it a plus EV proposal, by my numbers. UCLA QB Rosen hasn't been good the last couple of weeks, but he's got that great run game he can rely on. UCLA's defense is still far better than Arizona's, even with early injury losses.
 
Adding for 1/2 Unit: Central Michigan Team Total Over 14

Nothing much else I love on team totals, but will probably play some halftimes on the later games today.
 
Most of the lines hit in the way my lines expected this morning, making me feel a little better about my card today. Good luck today everyone!
 
Well, I was hoping the OHIO@MINN total would drop below 47 after I bought the extra Under unit at 48, but at least with reduced juice at 5D I can buy back at almost no juice with 1 Unit Over 47 (-102). To be clear, I like the Under in this one, lol.
 
The total, not surprisingly, never got up to 55 on this one, but I'll take another 1/2 unit at Under 54 reduced juice on the UNT @ IOWA Under.
 
Adding for 1/2 Unit: Penn State -6.5 2nd half (-120) vs SDSU

Going to press the 1 Unit game Penn State -12 bet with this. PSU dominating more than the score even indicates, starts the 2nd half with the ball.
 
Adding for 1/2 Unit: ARIZ ML 2nd half (-115)

Got 25 points to work with my UCLA play, seems like a good spot for a middle, lol. ARIZ running the ball well, hopefully they don't give up on that.
 
Potential 2.5 unit swing on that TA&M missed field goal. Jesus. Not had the best of luck at the end of games today in spite of crushing it, lol.
 
Adding to win 1/2 Unit: ASU ML 2nd half vs USC (-145)

Instant replay of the UCLA @ ARIZ game with huge middle to work with and actual value on ASU (so yeah, it's not really a middle. I just like ASU in the 2nd half starting with the ball and running it better than USC, just like the other Arizona game).
 
nice day cruncher enjoy the Moscato, the units won vs the record is a little low with the half bets on a lot well done
 
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