The Sports Cruncher's 2015 CFB Week 04 Lines & Market Plays

T

TheSportsCruncher

Pretty much a regular
1/2 Unit: KU +13 @ RUTG
1 Unit: BAY -33 vs RICE
1/2 Unit: BUFF pick vs NEV
1 Unit: PSU -12 vs SDSU (-115)
1/2 Unit: ARK +3.5 @ TA&M (EV)
1 Unit: M-OH +21.5 @ WKUj
1/2 Unit: MTU +7 @ ILL
1/2 Unit: ALA -39 vs ULM
1 Unit: TTU +9.5 vs TCU (-120)
1/2 Unit: CAL -2 @ WASH
1 Unit: USC -6 @ ASU (-112)
 
Crud, some of my lines seemed a bit off and after a necessary adjustment I'm not showing as much value on the ALA & BAY & GT plays. I'd pass on both of those now if you haven't got down on them, but I'll have to ride them out and see where the line goes. All the other plays still have good value.

Adding for 1 Unit: OHIO +12.5 @ MINN
 
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Adding for 1 Unit: SYR +24 vs LSU (-105)

This line has already moved up from 23 to 24, but I'm willing to go against that little movement. SYR is getting pretty thin at QB, but LSU hasn't shown anything in the passing game yet. Fournette is a super beast, it's true, but SYR's run defense has been pretty good this year, albeit against far inferior run offenses. I don't bank on motivation generally, but this can't be a spot where LSU is particularly motivated.
 
Week #3 Recap -- the score of my lines against the market Saturday morning before I had to leave. Some of these may have closed a bit differently but I wasn't around to track them. I had a few outliers on totals that tell me I have some refining to do, and I know specifically what I have to do. Still, did very well over all on totals, with the median score being a full point on the market. Sides were positive, but didn't gain as much market value. I ran well on sides, though, when it came to wagers. I experimented with some added plays on totals this past week, which is why I ended up with so many totals plays, lol. I think the adds were pretty near break even. It was unfortunate that I had to be off the grid most of the day, as there were some totals I was going to buy back on and just didn't have time, and the buy backs were the right move.

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Adding for 1/2 Unit: ARK +7 @ TA&M

This line looks like an over-reaction to me. Yes, Arkansas has lost a couple of games as solid favorites. They aren't playing terrible, they're just not scoring optimally, lol. I liked Texas Tech to have a resurgent year, so that game wasn't a huge shocker. I'm not sold on TA&M yet. They beat an unimpressive ASU in a game that was close into the 4th quarter. They beat Ball State pretty handily but didn't ice them statistically. They only made it halfway to their too large spread against Nevada last week. Yes, their defense looks somewhat improved, but they haven't faced a stiff test yet.
 
GL this week, some good looking plays so far. Syracuse line down for me. Is it because of the QB and possibly coming back from concussion?
 
1 Unit: HAW @ WIS Under 51
1 Unit: TCU @ TTU Over 79
1/2 Unit: ULM @ ALA Under 55
1/2 Unit: MASS @ ND Over 56.5
1 Unit: TENN @ FLA Under 53.5
1/2 Unit: BGSU @ PUR Under 79
1/2 Unit: NAVY @ CONN Over 50.5
 
1 Unit: OHIO @ MINN Under 46.5

They've posted so many totals on the unappetizing side of key numbers, but have to take them because they're all gonna' move anyway, lol.
 
Gonna' have to play against some Dr. Bob steam with...

1/2 Unit: WMU +31 @ OSU

Western Michigan hasn't looked good in FBS play this year. They've had almost no run game. They predictably lost to Michigan State, but then got absolutely gang banged at Georgia Southern against GASO's backup QB, no less. They could not stop GASO's run at all. Not being able to stop the run while not being able to run is pretty much the worst formula to winning football games ever, so let's back 'em! lol

Ohio State's offense has hit an early funk, and the loss of OC Tom Herman looks to be hurting them a lot more than they'd anticipated. HC Meyer might be 2nd guessing himself about the usefulness of this two starting QB failure. One thing is certain right now, though -- OSU's defense is playing tremendously well, as good as anyone in football right now. So though my number is almost right on the actual total, I'm still going to add...

1/2 Unit: WMU @ OSU Under 58

Sure the Buckeyes want to get on track offensively this week, but there's no magic cure for these kinds of things. Having one of your OL saying that teams playing a 3 man front hurts their offensive scheme probably doesn't help, though, lol. I'm not sure what WMU's defensive alignment is, but I'm pretty sure it's going to struggle this week whatever it is.

Western Michigan runs a pretty slow offense, and OSU is about average. As long as WMU can hang onto the ball for even a few semi-long drives I like their chances here. I'm hoping it's an either or both for these two bets, and not an either or none situation. WMU was a popular pick to win the MAC this year, which already looks like a long shot to happen the way they've started versus some of the other teams in the conference. It's still early in the season, though. If they can limit big plays and turnovers (and they haven't been at all good in the turnover department) I like them to cover in a 17-41 loss.
 
Adding for 1/2 Unit: Bowling Green -2.5 @ Purdue

Even though I've given up value on the opening line when BGSU was a small dog I'm going to make a play on them, after comparing their games and Purdue's so far this year. BG has actually gotten better in the passing game in each successive week this season, while Purdue's pass defense made VT's back-up led pass offense look good last week. Then again, Purdue couldn't stop much of anything last week. Bad news for Purdue is that BG's running game is starting to come around to, and had it's first better than average game last week against Memphis. BG's run defense hasn't been good, to say the least, and Purdue rates to have it's offensive success running the ball, but BG did finally have a solid game of run defense last week for the first time this year.
 
What do your numbers have for the Memphis total? Was considering the under when it got to 68.5, already down at 67.5
 
ksimpsc said:
What do your numbers have for the Memphis total? Was considering the under when it got to 68.5, already down at 67.5
Click to expand...

If Kiel weren't out I would have taken the Over even at 68.5. I'm not not taking the Under just because he's out because Cincy has a good running game too. It's getting hammered Under as I type this.

Did you see TENN @ FLA just went down to 47.5? :cheers3:

1/2 Unit: VT @ ECU Under 56.5

Don't count on VT having another offensive explodegasm this week, and ECU passing game is still a notch below what it was last year.

1/2 Unit: FRES +4.5 @ SJSU

Fresno still has one good QB to play and a decent running game. SJSU has a terrible pass offense so far and a terrible run defense as well. Advantage Fresno.
 
lol i had the under in and then paused, oh well didnt really like the play that much I was going to hit. Was going to do a 2tm 7pt mem -3 U74.5 since I missed the side when it was low. prob just lay off now

did not see that in Tenn game that is amazing news

Fresno is one I wanted to take early but felt I missed the number. Line is down for me currently. That is a great under on VT. Was on the under last week so was maybe going to lay off since I am a VT homer but may have to join you.
 
NAVY @ CONN total jacked down to 48 just now, so I'm adding a 1/2 Unit on that Over, in a move that usually doesn't work out for me, lol. But hey, the market was wrong on the Navy total last week, and never liked the Over like I did. I've said it once and I'll say it again -- when there's a big difference between my totals and the market direction it usually involves a service academy team, and very often it's Navy.

Yes CONN has more experience than most in facing this offense -- they already played Army this year. Still, they did give up 5.5 yards per carry in that game. That's not going to slow down Navy terribly much, and Navy is going to be a hell of a lot better at converting their yards into scores than Army is.

On the flip side, CONN's passing game is much improved this year, and Navy's defense was pretty average last week against ECU.

On the not so good side, both teams do play slow, and CONN has played really slow this year. A run heavy game with the Over can be frustrating as you see whole half of quarters (see what I did there? lol) evaporate off the clock with one team methodically driving with little to no points to show for it sometimes.

I just don't think this Navy team will be denied, and will score a minimum of 28 points. CONN will have to pass to keep up, and will get a minimum of 21. At worst, that leave me hitting this added 1/2 while losing the original Over 50.5.
 
damn then i was actually putting in something on that game and they took it down completely (memphis)
 
Yeah, they got serviced by service plays. The Rice total is actually on my number now, I bet it Over because of other angles. After last week's games I guess some enthusiasm for a BYU/MICH Under is understandable. I think taking any Under of 45 or lower takes a special set of circumstances that aren't even close to being met in that game. As for Navy -- I typically like the Overs in their games, which I think usually works out except when playing other service academies. Hey, the market whiffed it big time on the Navy total last week, I'm hoping it can happen again -- though CONN is obv. a more Under type team than ECU, but the number is 10 points lower in comparison.

Adding for 1/2 Unit: Marshall -6.5 (-115) @ Kent

I can't quit you yet, Thundering Herd!

QB Birdsong is out for Marshall this week, btw -- not sure how much I care about that.
 
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ksimpsc said:
good point sir, everything else moved greatly. U43.5 Scary :rofl:
Click to expand...

Can't predict them all, but I can predict a large majority week in and week out. :)

Fresno QB Greenlee who came in and played pretty well as the back up last week was arrested for public drunkeness or some such thing and is "?" for this week. That makes me less bullish on the Bulldogs this week. They still have 3 other QBs on the roster, 1 junior and 2 frosh.
 
CIN QB Kiel is cleared to play, but if he plays it will have been with lite practice on a short week. Cincinnati can't afford to give away any conference games, so I'd lean toward him playing. If he doesn't, I still think the CIN play is okay, and the Over just a wash.

Adding for 1/2 unit:

CIN +10 (-105 5D) @ MEM
CIN @ MEM Over 66.5 (-105 5D)
 
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