The Sports Cruncher's 2015 CFB Week 03 Lines & Market Plays

Hmm, looks the market thinks that ND's offense is going to tank without QB Zaire. GT got hit hard and fast, as did the Under. Oh well. I still like the Over.
 
Thanks for the plays! I have that ND total way high. I am not sure what to think. Can't imagine it going any lower than it is. Might play your over now!
 
I've been burned by Alabama Overs in conference play at the wrong time before, lol, and the market is nudging it down a bit. Has nobody seen Ole Miss play this year? lol
 
danjor said:
Thanks for the plays! I have that ND total way high. I am not sure what to think. Can't imagine it going any lower than it is. Might play your over now!
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Thanks, Dan. That ND total is down to 57. Grr. GT is gonna score and put pressure on ND to keep up. First team to 30 might be the winner, but I'm thinking they both get there. ND offense right now is the variable, though. Their running game has still been super good in spite of injury to Folston -- I guess we'll see.
 
Regretting I missed BALL @ EMU Over before it jumped to 63.5, but still gonna play it at that # for 1/2 a unit. Ball State is really looking like an Over team, and EMU mostly as well.
 
I have a conflict in that Or St SJSU game between my instinct and my numbers. My numbers say under as well but my instinct says otherwise. Will be interesting to see if sjsu at some point decides on a QB. Best of luck. great thread
 
clowncar said:
I have a conflict in that Or St SJSU game between my instinct and my numbers. My numbers say under as well but my instinct says otherwise. Will be interesting to see if sjsu at some point decides on a QB. Best of luck. great thread
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I've added quite a few totals this week not based on pure numbers but also some other factors. This is one of those plays that to me on numbers alone is borderline playable and borderline on the other factors. Borderline+ borderline equals a play, I guess, lol. It's probably one of the slimmest value totals I've played this week. Guess we'll see!
 
clowncar said:
I have a conflict in that Or St SJSU game between my instinct and my numbers. My numbers say under as well but my instinct says otherwise. Will be interesting to see if sjsu at some point decides on a QB. Best of luck. great thread
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One of SJSU's better defensive players (LB Christian Tago) took a nasty shot against AF and left the game. Not sure of his status for this weekend, but he might not be 100%. Oregon St. might have some success moving the ball.
 
Thx, gents.

This play is based exclusively on what I've seen of these two teams this year. Ball State has been running the ball very well. They ran for a very nice average last week against TA&M running on 2/3 of their plays. A&M knew what was coming pretty much and didn't stop it particularly well. It was the same scenario except magnified in the EMU @ WYO game last week. Very early in the game WYO was down to their 3rd string QB who I'm not even sure is an actual QB based on his stats in that game. But Wyoming, like Ball, stuck with the run, and even more so, about 75% of the time. And they ran hog wild over EMU in the process, averaging 7.4 ypc. By simple deduction, this tells me that even if EMU knows Ball St. will be running a lot in this game they shouldn't have very good success stopping it. EMU's back up QB did a fine job last week, and he'll probably have a pretty good game against Ball as well. When it comes down to strength versus strength offensively, though, I'm going to back the team that runs the ball better more often than not. I see Ball pulling ahead and then EMU making enough mistakes on offense to keep them from covering as a home dog. But hey, if somehow EMU doesn't screw up, I'm pretty confident the game goes Over then, meaning a split at worst with a play in on the Over already.
 
Right now I'm going through each team right now and if a team is seemingly much better or worse at something so far this year I'm adjusting the stat projections even more than the 3x multiplier each game this season is applying already. As a result I'll probably be adding a few more plays, or not liking positions I currently have on plays much.

Adding for 1/2 Unit: Wake Forest @ Army Over 47

We came up a score short of the Over on the Army v. UConn game last week on nearly the same number as this game. Wake's passing game looks much improved this year and should be able to exploit Army's weakening pass defense even more than UConn did. Wake's rush defense was about the same as UConn's last year -- somewhat below average, while their pass defense gave up a couple of huge plays to Syracuse last week, so Army should rate to have okay success against them and might hit a surprise long ball score through the air like they did against UConn.
 
After adjusting my numbers more for this season's games, I now favor LSU by almost 10 points against Auburn. I have a 1/2 unit on Auburn +7.5 now, so I'm going to get off it with a chance at a middle with a 1/2 unit on LSU -6.5.
 
Adding for 1/2 Unit: UNLV @ MICH Under 49.5

This play is predicated on UNLV QB Decker missing, he's still listed as "?" with a groin. That's something he's going to get much solid practice in with even if he ends up playing this game, I think.
 
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Air Force passing game looks to be much worse than last year (as projected), and I look for MSU to just blow up AFA's offensive line (cut blocks or not) to disrupt AFA's run game.
 
Adding for 1 Unit: CMU @ SYR Over 45 (-105)

Syracuse showed vulnerability to the pass last week, the one thing CMU does well on offense. Syracuse hit a couple long balls with their new freshman QB, and now he gets another full week of practice and a home game. Both of these teams play at a really slow pace offensively, but with the match ups favoring the offenses a little more than the defenses, I'll take a shot at this low number. A word of warning, though -- any time I played a Syracuse Over last year it was basically just lighting my money on fire, lol. Still, I like this one.
 
Adding for 1/2 Unit: BYU +17 @ UCLA

I'm on board the Mangum train, and BYU's rush defense is playing very well. UCLA QB Jesus Risen fell back down to earth last week averaging just 5.3 ypp against UNLV. Yes, UNLV.
 
Adding for 1/2 Unit: Wyoming @ Washington State Over 60

Wyoming QB Coffman listed as probable now. This play a definite no go if his status changes.
 
TheSportsCruncher said:
Thx, gents.

This play is based exclusively on what I've seen of these two teams this year. Ball State has been running the ball very well. They ran for a very nice average last week against TA&M running on 2/3 of their plays. A&M knew what was coming pretty much and didn't stop it particularly well. It was the same scenario except magnified in the EMU @ WYO game last week. Very early in the game WYO was down to their 3rd string QB who I'm not even sure is an actual QB based on his stats in that game. But Wyoming, like Ball, stuck with the run, and even more so, about 75% of the time. And they ran hog wild over EMU in the process, averaging 7.4 ypc. By simple deduction, this tells me that even if EMU knows Ball St. will be running a lot in this game they shouldn't have very good success stopping it. EMU's back up QB did a fine job last week, and he'll probably have a pretty good game against Ball as well. When it comes down to strength versus strength offensively, though, I'm going to back the team that runs the ball better more often than not. I see Ball pulling ahead and then EMU making enough mistakes on offense to keep them from covering as a home dog. But hey, if somehow EMU doesn't screw up, I'm pretty confident the game goes Over then, meaning a split at worst with a play in on the Over already.
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strongly considering EMU TT ov.
 
Yeah, GynoGabe, I'm kinda' torn on that Ball play I added. I think they crush with the run game but overall the numbers like EMU to keep it close. I tell you what, if they offered team totals early in the week on 20 cent lines I'd (and many, for sure) would bet the hell out of 'em, lol.
 
Adding for 1/2 Unit: CONN +21.5 @ Missouri

I have it as a 10-27 Missouri win.

Hitting the Dog and Under here might come down to how many cheap scores CONN gives up. I think they can survive one defensive or special teams score, but maybe not two.
 
thx, Tim

I guess I'm willing to be wrong twice on this one...

Adding for 1/2 Unit: FSU @ BC Over 46.5

I get it -- the majority of BCs games last year didn't get to 47 and FSU's passing game rates to be down this year and BC's new offensive line hasn't played an FBS team yet. Plenty of reasons to like the Under. Actually, having finished up some adjustments I would not have made the initial Over 51 play on this game. But now at 46.5? Yes. I'll settle for getting juiced out now that it's come down through some key numbers. If I happen to hit both, great. If I happen to lose both...I knew it typically doesn't work out doubling/chasing the first play against the market steam, lol.
 
My Week 3 lines. Some larger than usual discrepancies between my lines and the market this week. I'd attribute that to it being a tough transition week finding the balance between valuing last year's play and this year's for every team out there. Still, I expect the lines overall to start morphing toward mine as we get closer to Saturday.

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I updated the first post of this thread with a master list of this week's plays. You'll notice that some of the plays were made on slim values versus my actual lines, or even against them. On most of these it was because I looked at additional factors and decided that if I could get a certain number or better when the lines opened I would still make a play on my lean. On a few of the plays I made enough changes to a team's projections based on this year's stats that I don't necessarily like the position on that game anymore. If you have any question about certain lines or plays, feel free to ask.
 
Adding for 1/2 Unit: USM @ TXST Under 67

Going with some steam created value here. USM plays at a pretty slow pace, TXST a bit uptempo. I like being on the right side of 66 here, with 35-31 the most likely score in the neighborhood. A small point, but hey, lol. Neither team is showing much in the way of defensive improvement this year, and USM has definitely gained ground on TXST in the passing offense department (though they put up pretty poor numbers against an FCS team last week). TXST stayed under this # in 7 of 11 FBS games last year, USM 8 of 11. It would take at least one team in the 40s or both into the mid+ 30s for this to go Over 67. USM had a season best 31 in FBS games last year, while TXST got to the mid 30s on a fairly regular basis, but mostly against the very worst defenses the Sun Belt has to offer. I can only guess that this number has sky-rocketed because of the 75 and 87 point games TXST has played -- but those match ups just don't exist in this game.
 
Adding for 1/2 Unit: Tulsa +31 @ Oklahoma

Line value, and Tulsa's passing game seems capable of getting through the backdoor if it comes down to it, though Oklahoma is by light years (wrong metaphor?) the best defense they'll have faced this year.
 
Adding for 1/2 Unit: UNLV +34 @ MICH

UNLV QB Decker has been upgraded to probable. That obviously takes away some of the value on the Under 49.5 play, but it's worth riding out if you got down on it.

UNLV was projected to be one of, it not the worst team in the FBS this year. I tell you what, though, it looks like they're playing hard. They challenged at NIU into the 2nd half, and in spite of losing their QB early in the game against UCLA they never gave up defensively, in spite of being shut out until very late in the game. They've been able to run the ball a bit and Decker, when healthy, has been okay.

Michigan is just not a team built for a lot of scoring. After giving up a touchdown to ORST on the Beavers first drive, Michigan limited ORST to just one (or none? I think it was one) first down the rest of the game. So, in spite of having the ball basically the entire game against an average defense they barely cracked 400+ yards and scored 35 points. This tells me that UNLV won't have to do much at all on offense to have a chance at covering. Yes, UNLV's defense rates to be much worse than ORST's, but like I said, they are showing some effort. They limited UCLA Rosen to just 5.3 ypp (in his first career road game, it's true). Against ORST Michigan just ran the ball a lot, sitting on that healthy lead. They ran it 48 times and passed it just 26. It's not likely they'll stray much from that script in this game.

I'm not saying it's going to happen, but this is one of those games where there's an outside chance of the big dog not scoring any points at all but still covers. I've called a couple of those successfully in the past, lol.

Final Score Prediction: UNLV 13 -- Michigan 34
 
+1.5 units last night hitting both the side and total in the CLEM @ LOU game. I had to sweat the late LOU FG attempt that probably would've sent that game to OT. I had the Over in both games that went to OT last week, and neither game still managed to get there, lol. Those were two of my weaker plays last week, as it turned out.

Adding for 1/2 Unit: NMSU +3 vs UTEP

Dumpster Fire Divination: Handicapping the Shittiest Game of the Week

UTEP @ New Mexico State

I'm thinking of starting a weekly handicapping exercise based on picking through the stankiest game of the week, pan handling for profit. Last week I more or less did that with my detailed break down of the Eastern Michigan @ Wyoming game, in which I recommended taking both EMU and the Over. Success!

This week we'll leave Laramie, drive down through Colorado and most of New Mexico until we arrive in Las Cruces. Just across the border from Las Cruces is El Paso. Here in the geographical anus of America is a little non-conference rivalry game for bragging rights of who'll be the wiper, and who'll be the stain.

Both of these teams have started the season playing like the product that ends up at the bottom end of the food chain.

UTEP opened with a 35 point loss at Arkansas and a 49 point loss at Texas Tech. Arkansas, of course, followed that game up with a home loss to Toledo. UTEP has also lost their top running back Aaron Jones for the season now. Without him the second half last week they managed a measly 3 points against what must have been the back half of the depth charts for Texas Tech, defensively. I shudder to think how poorly a group of defenders not good enough to start for TTU would do against nearly any other college football team.

New Mexico State had an encouraging start to their season when they managed to score 13 points in the second quarter at Florida. That might be more than any other team scores in the second quarter at Florida all season. We shall see! Unfortunately for NMSU, they also allowed 27 points in that second quarter, and I'm not sure they managed a single first down in the second half of that game, while surrendering a grand total of 61 points to the Gators when the swamp dust had cleared. And then last week NMSU lost at home to Georgia State, giving them their first FBS road win ever. Hell, it was only GAST's second FBS win ever, period! Embarrassing, to say the least.

Last year you had to automatically assume there was value on the Under when UTEP played, and that play was rewarded time after time. They prefer to run and play incredibly slow on offense, and this year they've been no different -- the slowest team by far. Playing against their polar opposite in Texas Tech last week I passed on the Under, which ended up being wise. This week I fired at the Under 62.5 when the lines opened...and then watched with some incredulity as the number went as high as 65 by the next day. This didn't jive with my early numbers. This is the time of year that requires some manual adjustments based on the limited number of games a team has played so far this year, balancing that with last year's stats. After making the adjustments for these two teams I could see why there was some initial action on the Over. My updated O/U line for the game is 63.9. This number shifted upward because both teams are playing even lousier defense than projected, and NMSU's passing game looks a bit better this year. Also, after playing at an average pace in the week one blowout loss to Florida, the Aggies stepped up the pace in the close loss to GAST, averaging 21 seconds per play, which is definitely faster than average.

With UTEP losing RB Jones and being the road team, combined with NMSU's improved passing, I give the small edge to NMSU to win outright as the small home dog. I wouldn't play the total, especially now that has dropped down to 61 or so, but I can live with the Under play in a game with UTEP and two less than stellar offenses, even with defenses as poor as these two have been.

I would recommend a small play on the New Mexico State Aggies, though, at +3.
 
I'm going to try and middle half of the 1 Unit I have on the MISS @ ALA Over 49 with a 1/2 Unit Under 53 (-105 5D). Both teams stingy when it comes to letting teams convert their yards into their full corresponding number of points. Tunsil out on the OL for MISS as well.
 
I'll be out running a disc golf tournament all day, so no 2nd half plays for me today. Good luck everyone!

Adding for 1/2 Unit: IND -1 vs WKU (EV 5D)
 
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