The Sports Cruncher's 2015 CFB Week 03 Lines & Market Plays

T

TheSportsCruncher

Pretty much a regular
Here's an updated master list of my plays.

1 Unit:

FLA -3 @ UK
FAU PICK VS BUFF
CLEM @ LOU UNDER 54
NIU @ OSU OVER 64.5
TROY @ WIS UNDER 58.5
NW @ DUKE UNDER 49.5
ECU @ NAVY OVER 60
MISS @ ALA OVER 49
VT @ PUR UNDER 49
UTSA @ OKST UNDER 54
USU @ WASH UNDER 47
WKU @ IND OVER 67
UTEP @ NMSU UNDER 62.5
SOAL @ SDSU UNDER 48.5
STAN @ USC OVER 51.5
AFA @ MSU UNDER 60.5
CMU @ SYR OVER 45


1/2 UNIT:

NW +3 @ DUKE
UNM +28 @ ASU
NEV +32.5 @ TA&M
TROY +35.5 @ WIS
TEX +7 VS CAL
AUB +7.5 & LSU -6.5
LOU +5.5 VS CLEM
WASH -5.5 VS USU
UGA -17 VS SCAR
BALL -6.5 @ EMU
ALA -6.5 VS MISS
PSU -9.5 VS RUTG
MSU -26 VS AFA
FRES +15.5 VS UTAH
BYU +17 @ UCLA
SMU +36 (EV) @ TCU
CONN +21.5 @ MIZZ
KENT @ MINN UNDER 48.5
RICE @ UNT UNDER 47
SCAR @ UGA OVER 54
NEB @ MIA OVER 57.5
GT @ ND OVER 59
TTU @ ARK OVER 64.5
USF @ MD UNDER 52.5
SJSU @ ORST UNDER 52.5
BYU @ UCLA UNDER 60
SMU @ TCU UNDER 67
FSU @ BC OVER 51
FSU @ BC OVER 46.5
WAKE @ ARMY OVER 47
UNLV @ MICH UNDER 49.5
WYO @ WSU OVER 60
CONN @ MIZZ UNDER 41.5
USM @ TXST UNDER 67



Adding for 1: FLA -3 @ Kentucky

Florida failed to put away ECU in the 4th quarter, but still held them to negative yards rushing on the day. The Florida passing game has been better these first two games than it was last year, and they're still running pretty well.

Kentucky did "upset" South Carolina last week, but it's an upset that my numbers predicted. My numbers predict a comfortable win for Florida this week. Kentucky has been vulnerable on the ground in their 2-0 start -- that's bad news against Florida.
 
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Adding for 1/2 Unit: NW +3 @ Duke

Both teams smashed cupcakes in shutout fashion last week. QB Sirk for Duke has been pretty good so far, but who has he faced? Nobody. NW's defense has been downright nasty so far with the aforementioned shutout on top of holding Stanford to 6 points and terrible offensive numbers in week #1. NW has the numbers nod and gets the green light for having beaten an actual quality football team.
 
Adding for 1/2 Unit: New Mexico +28 @ Arizona State

This line went from it's opener of 24.5 quickly up to 28. That's cool. If it ever gets higher than 28 I'll be a little sad, but I'm fine with the position. ASU did beat UNM by 35 @ Albuquerque last year, we can put that on the table right away and see how much it scares you now that this home and away returns home for the Sun Devils. Still here? Good. Look, neither team has played worth a dog eaten crap in their one game versus an FBS team. Against FCS squads, ASU was tied in the 4th quarter with Cal Poly, who has some offense, but not much defense. For ASU to only have 21 points heading into the 4th quarter is pretty bad. New Mexico destroyed their cupcake in week #1, though yes, it was a weaker cupcake overall. There's a risk that ASU's offense will suddenly remember what it's capable of, and that New Mexico's dangerous running game will be neutered by a much better run defense than they faced against Tulsa last week. There's danger everywhere, but that's why we play the game. We? I mean they.***Injury note -- UNM RB Gipson is "?" for next week, and he's one of their better backs. Gulp.
 
TheSportsCruncher said:
Adding for 1/2 Unit: NW +3 @ Duke

Both teams smashed cupcakes in shutout fashion last week. QB Sirk for Duke has been pretty good so far, but who has he faced? Nobody. NW's defense has been downright nasty so far with the aforementioned shutout on top of holding Stanford to 6 points and terrible offensive numbers in week #1. NW has the numbers nod and gets the green light for having beaten an actual quality football team.
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I really like this one and if I can't get your number will grab some ml and look live as well. BOL week #3 :cheers3:
 
Adding for 1/2 Unit: Nevada +32.5 @ Texas A&M

After these last week's games I'm not sold on TA&M. It was a game against Ball State that they should have dominated but really didn't, in spite of what the scoreboard read. It was a game decided on 3rd downs, where A&M converted 9 of 14 while Ball only converted 2 of 13. Ball was about a yard better per run while A&M was about a yard better per pass. The thing is, Ball mostly ran -- they did it at a greater than 2-1 ratio versus the pass. So A&M knew what was coming, generally, but only did a good job of stopping it on 3rd downs, lol. Nevada will be bringing the same run heavy offense to town. Nevada definitely doesn't have as good of a passing QB as they had in Fajardo last year, but Stewart still makes the runs the offense asks of him. Nevada's defense wasn't good in the loss to Arizona last week, but hey, we've got 32.5 points to work with, right? This line opened at 29 and I think it's a simple case of looking at final scores as to why it's gone up. Not much in the way of important numbers if it goes up, so might as well take it now in case it drops back to 31 or below.
 
Thx, Play2Win :cheers3:

Adding for 1/2 Unit: Troy +35.5 @ Wisconsin

Well, I teed up one giant dog turd for Wisky last week and they proceeded to smash it off said tee in a scoreless romp. But hey, at least I just juiced out on the game when Wisky was able to get the Over by themselves. Sign of a good Over when one team goes scoreless and you still win, lol. I'm hoping the dog I tee up this time has at least a few teeth in his mouth (and I'll probably be on the Over again). Troy gave new HC Brown his first win with an impressive win against Charleston Southern last week. Wait, don't I usually call FCS (and below) teams cupcakes? Heh -- well, CharSo is an okay team (they only lost by 1 @ Vandy last year) so I'm going to call it an okay+ win for Troy. Troy's offense also did pretty well in the season opener against NC State. Wisky does get RB Clements back after a 2 game time out, which increases the chance that Wisky just wears Troy out and then adds a couple of meaningless scores...but I'll wager that Troy gets 2-3 scores of their own to still cover by 7-8 points. Troy has an experienced QB unlike Miami of Ohio had last week -- that back door is wide open in Camp Randall this week.
 
Week #2 and YTD results (except I haven't tallied week #1 points against the closing market, yet). Had a terrible week #1, mostly because of a bad run of 2nd half plays. Murdered the closing lines by 93 points overall, only being wrong on firing too soon on a KSU-UTSA middle play, 1 point on New Mexico State (an impulse play where my numbers showed no value, lol) and Georgia by 1.5 points when the line came down on game day. Other than that just a few half points against and the rest a landslide. Each play made was an average of 2 points better (1.5 median) than the closing line. All that and it didn't add up to much profit on regular sides and totals, though it still made a difference on at least one play I noticed (didn't check them all).

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TheSportsCruncher said:
Thx, Play2Win :cheers3:

Adding for 1/2 Unit: Troy +35.5 @ Wisconsin

Well, I teed up one giant dog turd for Wisky last week and they proceeded to smash it off said tee in a scoreless romp. But hey, at least I just juiced out on the game when Wisky was able to get the Over by themselves. Sign of a good Over when one team goes scoreless and you still win, lol. I'm hoping the dog I tee up this time has at least a few teeth in his mouth (and I'll probably be on the Over again). Troy gave new HC Brown his first win with an impressive win against Charleston Southern last week. Wait, don't I usually call FCS (and below) teams cupcakes? Heh -- well, CharSo is an okay team (they only lost by 1 @ Vandy last year) so I'm going to call it an okay+ win for Troy. Troy's offense also did pretty well in the season opener against NC State. Wisky does get RB Clements back after a 2 game time out, which increases the chance that Wisky just wears Troy out and then adds a couple of meaningless scores...but I'll wager that Troy gets 2-3 scores of their own to still cover by 7-8 points. Troy has an experienced QB unlike Miami of Ohio had last week -- that back door is wide open in Camp Randall this week.
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Nice thoughts. I agree that Troy rates to score on Wisconsin and that should give them ample opportunity to cover that number. Not sure Wisconsin is that much better than NCSU to be honest. Then again, I thought Wisconsin played their B game last week and still destroyed so who knows.
 
Adding for 1/2 Unit: Texas +7 vs CAL

I'll surrender my handicapper's license if this line goes higher than 7. I think the truth of these two teams lies somewhere between the poles of perception, 'nigh unto Neverland. Wait, what?
 
Solid thoughts, I always like a math approach. Who does your numbers having winning outright in LSU/Auburn and USC/Stanford?
 
TheSportsCruncher said:
Adding for 1/2 Unit: NW +3 @ Duke

Both teams smashed cupcakes in shutout fashion last week. QB Sirk for Duke has been pretty good so far, but who has he faced? Nobody. NW's defense has been downright nasty so far with the aforementioned shutout on top of holding Stanford to 6 points and terrible offensive numbers in week #1. NW has the numbers nod and gets the green light for having beaten an actual quality football team.
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Just a heads-up here, The Cats had 3 OL out for the Eastern Illinois game, and their OL was shaky to say the least against EIU (played well against Stanford). I expect at least 2 of those to be back for Duke, but you never know. The OL is the shakiest part of the team, and they lost one of their best back-ups during the EIU game as well. The defense is healthy and very good, but the offense worries me if their OL is not healthy for Duke. I still like them (somewhat biased as an NU alum), but watch the injury report (Fitz will have presser today i think - he usually is tight lipped on injuries - so may not know until friday injury report).
 
Thanks for the heads up, Arby. That line has gone up to +3.5, so something is definitely afoot.

Frankie - my numbers have LSU winning by one point, and USC by 12. To be honest I don't completely trust my number on the LSU game, as Auburn's QB has looked pretty shaky, and I'm not sure they'll have much luck slowing down Fournette. But getting more than a touchdown is good -- you saw how Miles got conservative and let MSST get the backdoor last week.

Let me tell you about how my numbers are made this week. Each game a team has played against an FBS opponent has the stats from that game used to replace the first three games of stats from last year, with the rest of last year's stats counted as if we were in the final week of last season. So, if a team has played two FBS opponent's that's 6 games worth of stats from those 2 games plus the stats from their final 6 games last season. What I'm seeing to a certain degree is that the market is valuing these one or two games from this season even more than I am, which is why I'm taking several dogs this week who haven't played particularly well so far this year. Clearly you want to get a gauge of how far ahead or behind a team is compared to their last season's play as quickly as you can, I'm just not sure how quickly you should discount last seasons stats. I'm trying to balance this, but it's an odd week for me looking at the lines, for sure, as next week probably will be as well. Last week I was pretty much spot on predicting the market, this week it's not shaping up to happen like that, at least as far as sides are concerned. By week #5 my numbers will have transitioned to almost completely using just this year's stats.
 
sports cruncher, great work my man. will you be able to post your chart with your projected totals on them earlier? it is so very helpful. thanks man
 
danjor said:
sports cruncher, great work my man. will you be able to post your chart with your projected totals on them earlier? it is so very helpful. thanks man
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Hi Dan, I'll post them sometime after I get most of my action in on the totals. That's what being free gets you, lol. If I ever go back to charging for my handicapping it will be just for early access to my lines, more than anything.
 
TheSportsCruncher said:
Hi Dan, I'll post them sometime after I get most of my action in on the totals. That's what being free gets you, lol. If I ever go back to charging for my handicapping it will be just for early access to my lines, more than anything.
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do you post them after betting at BOL? i'm going to try contacting you via your website. thanks
 
looks like the OL guys will be back. Just missing a starting WR on offense (he has missed last 2 games) and an OG that has missed first 2 games as well.
Its gonna be hot and humid and Duke has the better special teams, must be why its up to +3.5.
 
Adding for 1/2 Unit: UGA -17 vs SCAR

South Carolina had a bottom team run defense last year, and they haven't shown any real improvement for that unit yet this year. They gave up 6.5 ypc to UNC and 5.4 to UK. You think that is going to come at all close to working against one of the top 3 rushing attacks in college football...on the road? The shortest of short answers -- no. Georgia has shredded two run defenses that were average in week 1 and better than average in week 2. On top of that, starting SCAR QB is out with a separated shoulder. His Junior replacement put up okay numbers against Kentucky, but on only 10 throws. And it's a revenge game for Georgia. Just a tough, tough spot for SCAR here. This one has all the pieces for a jenga collapse by SCAR.
 
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