The Sports Cruncher's 2015 CFB Week 01 Lines & Market Plays

T

TheSportsCruncher

Pretty much a regular
Howdy! I only just learned of this forum with The Saturday Edge's recent partnering. So far I like what I see! Solid analysis, insights and discussion a cut above other forums I currently associate with (I've posted at a certain other forum for many years, and have dabbled in a few others from time to time).

Well, I've tried to post some links to my imgur pics I use for my lines and match up grids, but it's not allowing it. Maybe in a follow up post it will allow it.
 
GL and welcome

You should be able to post from imgur by clicking the third button from the far right in the "quick reply" box
 
Hmm, weird. Using the usual forum link from imgur didn't work, so thanks for the heads up on just using the link here, Dwight.

What I've listed as the openers aren't the "opening" openers that clowncar et al took advantage of, otherwise I'd have a much higher score against the market right now. I posted my NFL lines for a couple of years at thepredictiontracker some 7-8ish years ago and did well, especially in the 2nd half of the first season I started there. I quit doing NFL when the replacement refs were causing me too much aggravation a few years ago, lol, and have just done NCAA since then. My lines have been very sharp against the openers, but filtering that value into consistent winning EV has so far been a bit of a challenge. I was down a fair amount my first season, rebounded by about the same amount to have a good 2nd season, and then was down a small amount last year after getting back into it at week #7 or 8. I have a free website where I post all of my stuff (search my user name) - but I'm guessing site promotion is a no-no here like all forums so that's all you'll hear about that except for an occasional reminder of where to find all of my ratings and match up grids. I'll post all my plays, lines, and relevant graphics here, though, as long as it seems to be a worthwhile endeavor for the forum.
 
The Sports Cruncher's 2015 CFB Week #1 Recommended Market Plays

Most of these lines are still playable, even FIU as low as +13.5 isn't terrible.

I'm going to start the season with nothing but 1/2 unit plays until we're several weeks in, in part because of my season play investments, in part because I missed some the truly exceptional line value that was available even earlier, and also as it's typically good to be conservative until I have a good base of this year's stats to work with.

CMU +22 vs. OKST

Based on last years stats alone there's huge value on CMU, but we know that OKST had an uncharacteristically down year due to youth and injuries. So the real questions for this game are:

#1 How much better will OKST be this year, and in their first game? Their running game was really poor last year, while CMU's rush defense actually ranked pretty high for a MAC team. That's the kind of match up that favors the big dog, as with any kind of a healthy lead the big favorite doesn't rate to add much to their lead late if they can't control the clock and possessions with the run game. It's why Washington -6 (I think it was) 2nd half in their Bowl game against OKST last year was one of my favorite 2nd half plays of the Bowls. Washington started the 2nd half with the ball and easily covered the 2nd half spread in spite of looking pretty terrible in the 1st half. OKST couldn't add to their lead while protecting the win.

#2 How much worse will CMU potentially be with a new head coach, and not a particularly well regarded hire at that? This will be interesting to see, because CMU returns their QB and a decent amount of talent on both sides of the ball (once again -- by MAC standards). CMU's pass defense wasn't particularly well tested during the season and then in the Bowl game WKU shredded them like cut rate cheddar cheese. If this game gets ugly, it will be cause OKST continues to go for scores via the pass even with a healthy lead.

My projections do factor in regression, so in this case they anticipate that OKST will bounce back in the categories they performed poorly in last year. Even still, I'm showing plenty of value on CMU catching 3+ touchdowns at home.

OKST has seen a lot of action these last couple of days, driving the line up to as high as 24.5, but it's since come back down to 23.5

View attachment 39373

 
FIU +17 @ UCF

Here's another game where a fairly large favorite (UCF) doesn't have a favorable enough advantage in the running game to control the clock late, if needed. Florida International had a pretty bad offense last year, but enough defense to hang in there for some covers. They were fairly young last year, so if they go anywhere it just be slightly up. UCF does get their fairly good QB and passing game back, but the defense, the strength of their team, lost a lot of players. My numbers last year tended to be sour on UCF, sometimes for good, sometimes for bad. In what should be a low scoring game played just into the mid 40s, the points that the dog are getting are even more valuable. If FIU can get even double digit points on the scoreboard I think they have a good chance of covering.

View attachment 39375
 
MICH +6 @ UTAH

Look, if Michigan ends up being a decent to good team this year this is the best price you'll probably ever get on them. I tended to see MICH as undervalued last year -- the only problem being that you rarely knew if they were going to play like it or not. I liked them to cover the rivalry game against MSU, but when Michigan planted a flag or some such nonsense pre game it pissed off MSU and HC Dantonio enough that the Spartans went for an extra score at the end of the game instead of running out the clock, costing me the cover. If there's any way possible to lose a play, I think I've been on the wrong side of it, lol. A few years ago I was 0-2 in wagers decided by an intentional safety in the final minute of a game, for example. Ouch.

So yeah, MICH and Harbaugh are an unknown quantity this year, but at least defensively they shouldn't drop off much from last year. Utah I think is rather over-valued, as they took advantage of pretty much every opportunity possible to pull some major upsets last year against an also over-rated schedule of PAC 12 teams. Or at least that's the narrative I've been spinning on the PAC this year, even if I'm in the lone voice in the wilderness on that. All of these over and under valued perceptions that my numbers try to see through converge nowhere else in week #1 like they do in this game. As you an see, my numbers see it as the wrong team favored, with Michigan winning handily. It's hard to call any week #1 game crucial, but for me this one is -- a potential validation of my line making versus many, many other prognosticators.

View attachment 39376
 
GASO +20 @ WVU

In week #1 last year, Georgia Southern took a 20-10 lead at North Carolina State into the 4th quarter. They did end up losing a 24-23 nail biter -- but that game showed the rest of the FBS world what a dangerous squad this Georgia Southern team could be. A couple of weeks after they lost at Georgia Tech 38-42. GT of course turned out to be a very strong, underrated team, and even NCST finished out the season playing very strong ball. Against new conference foes, GASO didn't always seem to have the same level of interest as they did when playing the big boys. They dropped an OT game to what would turn out be a pretty good Appalachian State, then had their only other season loss in what turned out to be a route @ Navy. They actually gained almost the same number of yards as Navy, but had a -3 turnover differential.

GASO does break in a new offensive line this year, but the core of skill positions are back, as well as a healthy portion of their defense.

West Virginia had a promising season flounder down the stretch as QB Trickett's concussions mounted, eventually leading him to retire. They still played fairly tough, but a one point heart breaking loss to TCU led to a semi-route at Texas and another home loss against a KSU team that did nothing but pass the ball well en route to victory. The season ended on a final sour note in a bad Bowl loss to TA&M.

I like GASO to do what it do -- playing the big boys tough, as long as they can keep the turnovers in check. WVU, coincidentally, had one of the worst turnover ratios in football last year, at -16. Those gambling Big 12 defenses can do that to you, I reckon.

View attachment 39377
 
MSST -23.5 @ USM


So far it's been nothing but dogs on deck -- let's nab a big favorite as well. Last year MSST beat USM 49-0 in week #1, so even with this game being played @USM I don't think a final score prediction of 48-13 is being stingy. I personally think MSST is being over-looked this year because of graduating players, in spite of returning what is now easily the most dynamic quarterback in the SEC. I think the backdoor for USM will be 2-3 doors away by the time it matters, and they go down in flames in their own house before reaching the safety of the backyard.

This number has come down as far as -20, leading me take another 1/2 unit at that number against the steam.

View attachment 39378
 
PSU -6.5 @ TEM



Almost identical to Michigan, if Penn State proves to be at least average offensively this may be one of the best numbers you'll see on them all season. Temple is, of course, getting a lot of pre season buzz because they turn a lot on offense and all eleven defensive starters. Let's be honest, though, their defense was still slighly below average across all of FBS, and just 4th best in their Mid Major Conference. Penn State ain't no Mid Major, and they're looking to make a serious play this year at getting back into the ranks of elite programs. Google "Sandusky" if you want to know why PSU has had to make a recovery as a program in recent years. PSU's #9 ranked defense is going to be better than TEM's #67. Both teams were ranked near #100 in offense last year -- both teams have a chance to be better. But only one team has a quarterback who is still considered a future NFL player in spite of offensive woes last year. If PSU's line has grown up at all this year, Christian Hackenburg might indeed look like a draftable player. This game will be an early road test, but one I think PSU passes with room to spare.
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FAU +7 @ TLSA

Last year FAU outgained Tulsa 518-363 yards in a 50-21 victory that was aided by a 3-0 turnover margin. This year home court is switched. Tulsa's got the new coaches and buzz of rebuilding a dangerous offense again. First years at non-elite programs are tough though, even for successful coaches. My projections have FAU winning a close one, so getting a touchdown is nice.

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Also -- while I updated the lines today for my lines and values graphic, I haven't for each individual game match up grid, as you may have noticed.

I've also played UNC vs SCAR Over 64 for a 1/2 unit.

Adding for 1/2 Unit: UTSA @ ARIZ Under 60.5

It usually takes two to tangle for the Over, and I just don't see San Antonio contributing enough points to make that happen. Their offense was terrible last year, and could be even worse this year with the attrition by graduation they've suffered coming into this year. They only return a couple of starters, though they do return a not nearly as bad 42% of their yards gained players. UTSA might be in damage control in this game before halftime even arrives. With a new QB in week #1 on the road versus a P5 team I envision Coker's Crew to play it fairly conservative, running as much as possible to shorten the game. Arizona leaned on the run more as the season progressed last year. In what should be a comfortable win to open the season I would expect more of the same, a heavy dose of running, especially in the 2nd half when the game will probably be out of reach. The Wildcats do play fast, but their pace did slow down later in the season with the heavier amount of running they did. There may be a lot of scoring the first half, but I'd expect it to slow down in the 2nd, and for the fourth quarter to be a run-fest with both teams just looking to end the game.

Adding for 1/2 Unit: OKST @ CMU Under 59

This game has some good angles I like to see for an Under. First - a big favorite that doesn't have an advantage with their run offense. Remember, my lines have factored in regression that includes OKST being better on run offense and CMU being weaker at run defense this year. Even still, I don't project OKST to have a particularly good game running the ball, which limits their ability to add scores in garbage time. Second - the underdog is at home. A lot of defense comes down to effort, and home teams give more effort, which helps guard against giving up cheap scores late in a game due to giving up when trailing by what seems to be an insurmountable amount. Third - CMU had one of the slowest paced offenses in the FBS last year, averaging 29.1 seconds per play. With a new, inexperienced head coach, some deliberation between plays offensively is what you'd expect, and what they're used to anyway. Fourth - both teams had defenses that outranked their offenses last year. OKST's two units ranked pretty closely, but CMU's defense ranked 31 spots higher.
 
awesome analysis for the games.

you might already know, but instead of the insert image icon - you can simply type
 
Thanks guys. Yeah, just using the imgur link for forums started working for the latter posts. Not sure why, maybe because I'm a new account here, but it was giving me permission problems sporadically earlier.
 
Have a happy best unofficial holiday of the year today! Today we get our first shot at cracking, if ever so slightly, that giant nut that is college football in this year of 2015 AD.


The betting lines have been almost all correcting themselves today in the direction my lines have predicted.


Adding for 1/2 Unit: OHIO -6.5 @ Idaho (-120 bought the hook)


Ohio returns even more starters than Idaho, and should dominate the line of scrimmage.


Adding for 1/2 Unit: VAN ML vs. WKU +120


Small value play on the ML here. Vandy has some injury concerns, but that's better than having a defense like WKU that makes the opponent's offense look as hard to defend as ghosts. WKU rates to be not as good this year (in spite of the loaded returning offense), while Vandy has nowhere to go but up.

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Well, yesterday's 2nd half plays were a dumpster fire of horrific luck, so onto today...

SMU playin' the Bears pretty tough right now, and they start the 2nd half with the ball.

Adding for 1/2 unit: SMU +14.5 (-105) 2nd half vs Baylor
 
Nice thread TSC.
I will be checking in a lot. Welcome to the site!
Join us in some InGame Chat if you are available.
 
ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: PSU @ TEM UNDER 44 (-105 5D)

I already have PSU -6.5, with a PSU 27-13 projected victory. If this game goes Over, I think it's more than likely PSU is covering. So far the teams that struggled to run the ball last year have struggled to run in their first game this year, from what I've seen. If that's at all the case in this game, this one shouldn't break out of the 30's.
 
ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: BGSU @ TENN UNDER 69 (-105 5D)

Got that last one reduced juice at 5D as well. Good stuff.

BGSU of course likes to play fast, and they rate to play better this year, the second with their HC and system. I ranked them dead even on offense and defense last year at 99th. Using 20 seconds a play could be suicide against TENN, though, as they run the risk of getting their defense completely gassed if they can't sustain any drives. I'm sure they'll start off fast...but I'll be curious to see if they die by their own sword of speed eventually. One area of concern, of course, is that BGSU returns almost all of their offense but less than half of their defense. I'll just take the chance that their offense isn't hugely better than their defense this year when it's all said and done. Hopefully that defense can slow down the Vols running game which figures to be on autopilot late in this game with a comfortable TENN lead. 69 is just a lot of points.
 
ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT EACH

UGA -21 1ST HALF VS ULM (-115)
UGA VS ULM OVER 28 1ST HALF (-115)

28-3 Georgia up at the half sounds so, so right to me.
 
Penn State down to -5.5 @ BOL now? I'll have to oblige the steam with another 1/2 unit on them at that #, in addition to the 1/2 unit @ -6.5.
 
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