The rest of the CFL games Week 3

[Sammy Meatballs]

Friday has a doubleheader slated with Winnipeg at home is laying -5 and a total of 52.

Saskatchewan is laying-3.5 at home vs Bc Lions with a total of 50.5 points.

Writeups:

Winnipeg tied Edmonton 39-39 in week one at Edmonton. This game was on artificial grass where the games are usually a little slower and lower scoring.
Edmonton was able to move the ball with consistency vs the Winnipeg defense which was not in sync with its secondary. Winnipeg was taking poor angles and flat out not making plays.

Winnipeg was able to move the ball on Edmonton with its explosive receivers Stegal, Armstrong, Brazell, and Edwards. Glenn was able to rely on all of these guys to beat the Edmonton Db's in coverage.


Winnipeg is always very tough at home, and has arguable the best running back in the league, Charles Roberts. If winnipeg can establish Roberts Edmonton is done. Winnipeg has the athletes on defence, but is not yet a polished unit like Bc and Toronto, but has some playmakers on D, especially on their D line.

Edmonton can be good on O because of their leader Ricky RAY who is arguable the best QB in the Cfl. IF he has time he will be able to complete the passes as he reads defences very well.

I do not think Edmonton can contain the Winnipeg offence, Stegall will beat #10 Stanford Samuels very bad. All Winnipeg receivers are tall and fast, thus making them tough to stop on deeper patterns because they have the range and angles to create separation on corner patterns and across the middle.

I was considering the Over on this game at 52 but didn't because:
-Edmonton throws a lot of short passes burning clock.
-Both field goal kickers are not very good.
-can be very windy in Winnipeg as well.

I think what we will see tonight is a case of this:

Edmonton does not have the playmakers and the defence to stop Winnipeg. Last week Montreal was able to shut down Winnipeg in the 2nd half to only 7 points. However Montreal knows Winnipeg and has a good defence that is quick and shut down Winnipeg's running game.

Edmonton was in week one, exposed with their Db's. Winnipeg will feast on any team that has weaker Db's because they have the best receiving core in the CFL. If Edmonton does not generate a lot of pressure on GLENN, receivers will get open on them.

Wild Card- Ricky Ray is playing well as he is getting more time to throw with his new O line. I heard Winnipeg has some secondary issues as well. This is key as I must find out and ensure that the secondary is all healthy.

I like Winnipeg to win this game but am not thrilled with the -5 line. May look into a Moneyline play.


I am taking Montreal -6 to beat Hamilton on Saturday. Writeup to follow.


Bc vs Saskatchewan:

People wonder why Sask is laying -3.5 over BC the defending champs?

Is it overreaction to the beating they gave Calgary?

I will tell you why they are laying -3.5.

BC QB Dickenson has not won in Regina as a Lion. 3 out of the Lions 5 losses last year were to Saskatchewan. Anyone every been to Regina they have a big homefield edge with the crowd, artifical turf and the winds.

This is why Sask is favored, someone pounded them at -2 to -3.5.

Ironically 2 cappers I know from Bc are taking Saskatchewan in this game.
They are feeling that Dickenson cannot throw in the windy stadium there.
Personally I saw Dickenson throw last week and was not impressed by his arm strength. He looked like he had 40 yards max distance on a deep throw.

Game: The game will be won or lost on this area of the game. If BC O line cannot stop Sask D line that has been pummeling opposing teams O line, BC is done. They will need an above average game from Dickenson tonight. Sask D is a mirror of BC's D, they rush the QB and disrupt them.

BC must be able to contain QB Joseph in the pocket. If he gets out of the pocket he will run and throw deep as he did vs Calgary.

I am thinking I will watch this game 1st half and then make a 2nd half play on this one. I think that the game should be a pick, no way BC should be dogs of -3.5 to anyone in the CFL.

However as stated above, BC's poor play in Regina, Qb's struggles at Regina, and Bc's struggle with Sask all makes Sask a -3.5 favorite.

Sask is not that explosive as they look on offence, and BC offence is also not clicking yet. But both of these defences are playing well and getting pressure on opposing Qb's.


After the first half I will be able to tell who is winning the battle in the trenches and who will win the game.

 

[NickelAndDimer]

I was considering the Over on this game at 52 but didn't because:
-Edmonton throws a lot of short passes burning clock.
-Both field goal kickers are not very good.
-can be very windy in Winnipeg as well.

looks like alot of rain tonight in Winnipeg....how will that play into tonights game??
Friday

• <LI class=high>High 75°F
• POP 60%

Chance of showers

Friday night

• <LI class=low>Low 52°F
• POP 60%

Chance of showers

Sask is not that explosive as they look on offence, and BC offence is also not clicking yet. But both of these defences are playing well and getting pressure on opposing Qb's.

Under 50.5 for this game a possible play??

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

2 starting Db's are out for Winnipeg, I believe it is both starting corners. Their second best wideout Derrick (deadly) Armstrong is also out for this game.

It would depend on the amount of rain, because sometimes if the field is just wet, but it is not pouring the advantage goes to the receivers who know where they are going, and the Db's slip.

However if it is a downpour the game could go over, cause neither team will be able to pass, and field goals would be tough to play.

In the Sask game I have not made a play yet, and I see a case for both teams. Should be an interesting game. I will also make a halftime play for sure, and possibly a play on the game, but am still undecided.

I think the under should cash in this game. I am not a totals player but may make an exception here and take the under for this game. My research indicates a very low scoring game. BC defense is very good, doesen't allow any deep passes. Sask defense will pressure Dickenson as well. I have been praising these 2 defences so it is time to take the under.

Play under 50.5 Bc Saskatchewan.

 

[catfood]

Agree with Winnipeg...Im unsure about the Als, Calvillo really hasnt looked comfortable with the new offense, and as you know he used to call his own plays. He really looks like a deer looking at headlights in the pocket, worse is the fact that hes not remotely mobile, hes been getting killed back there. So Hamilton being at home, and I know they suck but I think they may have better morale than the Als so I think they might cover. The question is can you teach an old dog new tricks? Calvillo hasnt thrown a td yet, I think he'll have a td pass maybe 2 against Hamilton but I dont see him breaking out. I just dont see Calvillo doing well with Popp as the coach. GL

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Bc under at 49.5 at Pinnacle and 50 at other books. If you going to take it, take it soon.

I got it at 50 under.

Have confidence with these teams that the defences are a little ahead of the offences here, and should make for a low scoring game.

 

[NickelAndDimer]

i have 50.5 (-110) at BoDog

 

[whoispittsnogle]

what kinda bullshit was that for bc under
:moose::moose::moose:
but make no mistake you were on the RIGHT side
:smiley_acbe:
montreal-7 tonight?

 

[E.T.G.]

damn, just got back from AC, see I lost the BC under.. damn..


Montreal 2night?

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

yes I have Montreal -6.5 for the game. Hamilton should not be able to move the ball vs montreal defense. montreal defense has been very good this year. Their offence has struggled but should score vs hamilton tonight.

I would be very surprised if Hamilton covers this game.

Expect Montreal to win by 13 points.

 

[NickelAndDimer]

how do you feel about the total for the game 44.5

 

[E.T.G.]

damn, just got back from AC, see I lost the BC under..

Didn't know the under in the BC game got blown that late and that way.


Lets go Montreal, make up for that shit

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

It was for that reason that I hardly ever bet unders on games in the CFL. Total was at 40 with just over a minute left, and BC intercepts a pass and brings it to the 25 of Sask. Then for some reason Bc is trying to score as they are throwing and running the ball.

There is a point where the coach of BC looks at his O coordinator and says do you want to play it or down it. They play it and score a TD.

Then with like 45 seconds left the Sask Qb throws a pass to the flats and the lineabcker picks it off for 7 to the house.


montreal up 14-0 as i type this apparently they scored a td to make it 14-7. montreal Qb so far i believe is perfect and they cannot stop montreal receiver Ben cahoon. Hopefully they keep scoring as Hamilton will not keep pace with us.

May play Als second half as well, as Ticats degress and the ALs running game usually picks up and wears teams down.

 

[E.T.G.]

i am watching the game as well sammy. noticed montreal qb is 13-13 w/ 2tds.

 

[E.T.G.]

My take on the first half..

Hamilton TD came on a bad coverage breakdown where the defender went for the ball and got beat and the receiver broke it for a long 67yd TD.

Montreal QB is lucky that the TiCats defenders have butterfingers as they have missed atleast 2 picks, you can see the youth in this team.

Hamilton really has no offense at all. Montreal is able to get pressure on the QB and force a lot of 2 and outs. A lot of pressure.

Montreal special teams are killing Hamilton. They are winning the field position battle by a long shot.

Montreal WR's are too quick for Hamilton DB's.

Mike Imoh (VaTech) is starting to find some success as they mix pass with the run. He has talent.

The announcers also pointed out the experience difference between the cordinators, big difference. That should mean Montreal is able to make better 2nd half adjustments.

As the 1st half is coming to an end, TiCats are driving and they have now mixed in the run a little more and they are finding some success. They settle for a FG and it is now 19-10.

Montreal was driving with 1:24 and they fumble on Hamilton 30. Momentum killer right there.

Big play... 3rd and 2 and TiCats run the ball and get the 1st down.

Bad clock management and reads on coverage cost Hamilton field position and then gave the kicker a shot at 47yd field goal which was missed.


19-10 at half

 

[E.T.G.]

Line is Montreal -2.5 for the 2nd half.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

montreal -2.5 and 22.5

Gives us an opportunity for a middle from 7 to 11 points? Also the way there is limited pass rush by both teams could see the over hitting 22.5.

 

[E.T.G.]

Sammy....Will we see Chang? If so that would be worse imo for Hamilton?

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Not in this game, Maas will play, Montreal defence at time can sputter if they get no pass rush. Maas was starting to get in a rythym. Hoping montreal can keep scoring on them.

If you take hamilton +2.5 and over 22.5 if MOntreal scores 10 you can't lose both

 

[E.T.G.]

I think I am going to lay off the 2nd half..


Stat wise the game is pretty close. Hopefully Montreal can get an early TD in the 2nd half.

 

[E.T.G.]

LOL..

Hamilton @ BC next week.... BC -21?

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

I am too, but I am little concerned about our defence. Hopefully we can get more pressure on Maas. Cause when we don't he can move the ball against us.

No one can cover Cahoon on Hamilton but calvillo has to throw to other receivers deep, use Cahoon as a decoy.

We're up 9 let's hope we can keep playing tough and move the ball and score.

 

[E.T.G.]

One other note..

Hamilton is killing themselves with penalties (8 for 75).

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Nice TD by montreal, Calvillo has time and hit Thurman deep as Hamilton is creeping up now and has no deep coverage because they are starting a former linebacker at safety.

Cahoon is unguardable, Hamilton db's are too young for his moves.

Hope we can punch in another TD, and then play some defence.

I am leaving Ottawa, going out on the town tonight, coming back and licking my chops for Bc over Hamilton. I am thinking the line should be 22 but we may get a 17 i have the feeling.

One game at a time, let's hit these Als.

hamilton will self destruct, they are playing better and the Als are a better team than their record indicates. They will beat Winnipeg at home this thursday.

 

[t-dot]

Timmy Chang with the rifle. That was a nice pass.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Montreal defense has a history of playing stupid in the 4th QTR with getting burned deep. I hope our offence can answer here and put a Td in.

 

[E.T.G.]

this is bad, real bad

 

[t-dot]

1 minute left. Montrel is inside the 20.

Run the clock or kick a fg?

 

[t-dot]

Sweet Montreal just kicked a fg. Up 9 with 13 seconds left. Need the defense to not give up the big one.

 

[E.T.G.]

you know wut..that FG makes up for the bullshit last night in the BC under..,kind of

 

[t-dot]

Its over congrats Montreal backers.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Montreal hung on and luckily got the field goal. I had the feeling that the game was going to come down to a last second play that was going to decide the spread. IN the last 3 minutes of the CFL spreads are decided.


I feel fortunate to get that win as we got beat by some stupid deep touchdowns.

Hamilton is going to be in big trouble at BC? Wonder what the line will be.

Qb Calvillo has to learn how to throw when moving his feet. He can't throw while moving. Also Montreal has to have the killer instinct on offence and put teams away.

Grade- C+ but the Als still covered

Hamilton D- Other than hitting 2 one play touchdowns which are not that common in the CFL, they did not look good. I don't think there defence was playing well, I think that Montreal's offence who didn't know how to beat the blitz was the problem.

Hamilton is playing better with some of their receivers and running game, but are still a ways off from challenging any other team in the CFL.

Updated power rankings assuming healthy rosters-

Bc- hands down no one can touch this defence, offence is explosive, qb depth

Toronto- With their defence they can win games vs every one except for Bc

Sask- good team but cannot match BC and beat them with their Qb's

Winnipeg- Potential on offence, decent defense with good pass rush, yet inconsistent at Qb, they go as far as their Qb takes them

Edmonton- Has Ricky Ray, enough said on offence, defence will improve over season

Calgary- Defense is very young and raw, offence will play better at some point, talent is here, just not playing well now. QB's are very hot and cold on this team.


montreal- Anyone watch the game vs hamilton. No vertical passing threats

Hamilton- No explanation needed, raw in all areas

 

[E.T.G.]

Sammy... You think they throw Chang to the wolves and start him vs. BC?

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

I think CHANG is the future of the Cats and since they are losing anyway this season they may as well start starting him. Maas has been on a short leash and pulled in every game. CHANG asked the coach to start this week.

BC has some quarterback questions as both Dickenson and Pierce got injured last game. I would love for BC to have lost last game as they would have came out focussed this week.

However how do you get up for Hamilton?? BC coming off a huge win certainly won't be hyped to play Hamilton.

I think the line will be 17.

BC even in a poor effort is at least 10 points better than the Cats. BC can name their score. The question is with the QB, and their motivation to blow the cats out. If we get a gift line of 14 BC may be the play.

Bottom line is the play is BC, just a question if the line is reasonable.

Toronto would have been a good play vs Calgary, if not for BISHOP getting injured. I am not thrilled about MCMAHON starting next week. Starting on the road can be tough and he is decent but still throws a fw int's.
Toronto D is for real, and Calgary plays better at home and should bounce back with a more competitive effort. However Argos play great D on the road as well. If bishop was starting i would feel comfortable with the Argos.