The Playoff Picture...

[Colin Wynner]

Would the Packers get 2nd place in division if they win out and Vikings lose out? Both to 13-4 with 1-1 head-to-head. Which criteria counts?

Yes, Packers would be the 5 seed and 2nd in division in that scenario based on tie-breaker #3 above (common games, Packers 10-2, Vikings 9-3)

If Commandos finish tied with the Packers, they own the tie-breaker over them by virtue of a better conference record.

 

[Colin Wynner]

NFC North will have the #1, #5 and #6 seeds I believe.

Washington should be locked in at #7.

Edit: Washington could lose out and open the way for a 2nd NFC South maybe?

Atlanta and Washington a huge game tonight.

Yes, if Bucs/Falcons both win out and Commandos lose out, Falcons win South and Bucs get #7.

Washington can still get as high as #6.

 

[B.A.R.]

Yes, if Bucs/Falcons both win out and Commandos lose out, Falcons win South and Bucs get #7.

Washington can still get as high as #6.

Thanks for breaking down the common opponents.

 

[Colin Wynner]

View attachment 91974

I’m assuming 3+ wins from these teams goes into the final week as well?

List of tie-breakers down to strength of victory, which would come into play if the Seahawks were to beat the Rams in week 18:

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory in all games.

To get to a tie-breaker, the Seahawks have to beat the Rams, so the SoV standings would then be (includes all games already played in week 17):

Rams 69-85
Seahawks 65-92

The best possible case for the Seahawks would be Dolphins winning out, Bills lose out, Broncos beat Chiefs, Falcons win out, 49ers lose out, Bears beat Packers, Vikings lose out, Saints lose out and Chargers beat the Raiders. That would be the final SoV:

Seahawks 75-95
Rams 73-97

Therefore, any combination of 3 differences from above and the Rams win the division.

But my guess if the Rams do not clinch this weekend, the NFL will put the Seahawks/Rams game on Saturday night. And put a meaningless game like Texans/Titans in the early Saturday slot. That would force the Rams to play their starters.

 

[B.A.R.]

View attachment 91974

So, Commanders or 49ers win clinched NFC West...

Correct ?

 

[Loves2kickass]

So, Commanders or 49ers win clinched NFC West...

Correct ?

Rams are in if they win next week vs Seattle. If the Rams lose they need a Commanders and Niners win.

 

[KJ]

Rams are in if they win next week vs Seattle. If the Rams lose they need a Commanders and Niners win.

Since the Bills won and the Vikings won, they now only need a Commanders win tonight or a Niners win tomorrow night to clinch and next week won't matter

 

[Loves2kickass]

I'm just praying the Falcons win the division so I can lay the lumber fading them in the WC round. The Rams as well.

 

[B.A.R.]

Since the Bills won and the Vikings won, they now only need a Commanders win tonight or a Niners win tomorrow night to clinch and next week won't matter

Exactly.

 

[B.A.R.]

Rams are in if they win next week vs Seattle. If the Rams lose they need a Commanders and Niners win.

Read the picture I posted from NFL Network last night.

The Rams can clinch tonight or tomorrow night.

There's a change next week's Seattle and Rams game is meaningless.

 

[Gandolf]

If the Commanders lose I think their game with Dallas will be on Saturday. They are in a fight with Tampa and Atlanta for that #7 seed, plus Tampa and Atlanta are in a fight for the South division. So if Washington wins it doesn't impact whether Tampa and Atlanta will be playing hard. That makes it a perfect stand-alone game on Saturday with some importance.

 

[Gandolf]

Rams/Seattle would be a tough call for Saturday....they need to decide before the Niners game tomorrow, so it could be a meaningless game or it could be hugely important, the league won't know. But if they wait for Sunday 4:30 it's a similar story, so I agree they would take a shot that Niners lose and the game is at least meaningful on Saturday.

 

[Gandolf]

AFC should dominate the 4:30 slot. Baltimore/Cleveland, Pittsburgh/Cincinnati, KC/Denver and Miami/Jets are all connected, league will want them all trying their best for at least a half until a game gets out of hand. NFC South should control the 1:00 games.

 

[Gandolf]

Saw tweet say Cincy/Pitt and Miami/Jets as the Saturday games. Unconfirmed but I don't like it. Baltimore could be let off the hook. Or might be letting Denver off the hook Sunday if the games go their way.

 

[HUNT]

Saw tweet say Cincy/Pitt and Miami/Jets as the Saturday games. Unconfirmed but I don't like it. Baltimore could be let off the hook. Or might be letting Denver off the hook Sunday if the games go their way.

One would be good. The other would suck.

 

[B.A.R.]

Rams will now own Strength of Victory TB after todays games once Washington win goes final.

 

[KJ]

Rams will now own Strength of Victory TB after todays games once Washington win goes final.

Does this make that game actually meaningful for seeding next week?

 

[B.A.R.]

Does this make that game actually meaningful for seeding next week?

 

[B.A.R.]

Seeding wise, NFC South and NFC West might still have a flip flop situation with the 3 and 4 seed.

 

[KJ]

Seeding wise, NFC South and NFC West might still have a flip flop situation with the 3 and 4 seed.

That's what I was going after. Pretty significant difference between hosting Minny/Detroit as opposed to GB imo

 

[B.A.R.]

That's what I was going after. Pretty significant difference between hosting Minny/Detroit as opposed to GB imo

Yeah, big time.

 

[B.A.R.]

Alright.

The Rams and Redskins just clinched via the OT winner in DC.

 

[Gandolf]

NFL totally in the tank for Hard Knocks putting both AFC North games on Saturday.

 

[B.A.R.]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1873523226783174799

 

[Loves2kickass]

Alright.

The Rams just clinched

YES! Thank you Skins!

 

[Loves2kickass]

That's what I was going after. Pretty significant difference between hosting Minny/Detroit as opposed to GB imo

Makes no difference brother.

 

[wiseplayer]

We going to the dance with a nice week 18 bye. No key injuries other than starting RT who say out vs Arizona. He’ll get 3 weeks to rest his shoulder strain. These young rookies on the dline could use a break.

 

[Loves2kickass]

We going to the dance with a nice week 18 bye. No key injuries other than starting RT who say out vs Arizona. He’ll get 3 weeks to rest his shoulder strain. These young rookies on the dline could use a break.

Who's "we"?

 

[B.A.R.]

Who's "we"?

Jeff Fisher

 

[KJ]

Makes no difference brother.

I know your game...it makes a difference in advancing even one game which is very important to any player or fan. We all know you're simply about winning the SB. LA absolutely could and should beat GB at home...which is pretty damn significant.

 

[askias]

Motivation List:

TB wins and they win the South.
ATL just in case TB somehow loses to NO.

DET will need the win vs the Vikings to clinch the #1 seed.

DEN wins and they are in.
MIA just in case DEN loses to KC, who’s motivation and player status is unknown.

CIN just in case DEN and MIA fall.

Is that right?

 

[askias]

Specific questions I have:

Does Baltimore care? Cleveland is god awful with DTR, but will Baltimore be all backups and not care. Home game for Bally, but they could treat it like a preseason game.

Same thought for Green Bay. Chicago terrible and on the road, but does GB have anything to play for?

Buffalo at NE. Pats have every incentive to lose, but will they get the memo that the Giants and Raiders didn’t? And will Buffalo help by not caring and playing backups.

 

[twinkie13]

Specific questions I have:

Does Baltimore care? Cleveland is god awful with DTR, but will Baltimore be all backups and not care. Home game for Bally, but they could treat it like a preseason game.

Same thought for Green Bay. Chicago terrible and on the road, but does GB have anything to play for?

Buffalo at NE. Pats have every incentive to lose, but will they get the memo that the Giants and Raiders didn’t? And will Buffalo help by not caring and playing backups.

Gotta be money to be made.
We need the “incentive list” if anyone feels froggy

 

[TenPin832]

Baltimore doesn't have the division locked up,needs win or Pitt loss according to what I'm looking at

 

[B.A.R.]

Baltimore doesn't have the division locked up,needs win or Pitt loss according to what I'm looking at

You're correct.

 

[askias]

Thanks appreciate that. Trying to develop a list of the motivated, regardless of the timing of the game. Sounds like TB, Balt since they go on Saturday(?) and Denver for sure.

 

[VirginiaCavs]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1873710450694836259

 

[Gandolf]

Extremely motivated
Detroit and Minnesota - honestly can't remember a bigger week 18 game - from #1 seed, bye week, HFA to heading on the road and facing either a red hot Baker or a rested Ram team is a massive drop off.

Very motivated
Denver - Payton wants to lock down that playoff spot to show maximum improvement
Tampa - Wants to win division and get ready to play spoiler in the Wildcard
Miami, Atlanta, Cincinnati - All clinging to life

Somewhat motivated
Baltimore - division win gets them a home game, but losing could send them back to Houston, where they just eviscerated the Texans. Next round is in Buffalo regardless. Play to win but getting through healthy is more important.
Pittsburgh - they will already know whether they can win the division. OBVIOUSLY they go all out if they have a chance to play at home next week. If they don't they can either win anyway to secure the trip to Houston or rest guys and risk losing and getting a trip to Baltimore. Tomlin has enough arrogance to not have a preference, but the fan base sure does. They probably play to win.
LA Chargers - will watch what happens in Pittsburgh with interest. I would expect Harbaugh would try to avoid a trip to Balitmore.
Green Bay & Washington - could end up with any of four opponents still in the Wildcard. Pack got handled pretty easily by Minnesota for most of the game.....currently heading to Philly as the #7 seed. Could they be interested in righting their ship and getting to #6? Not sure. Washington is fresh off earning the playoff spot, does Quinn rest guys to get ready for the Wildcard or do they have revenge on their mind against Dallas?

Unmotivated
KC - Had to win week 18 in 2022 to get HFA due to Hamlin game. Battled Titans for HFA in 2021, played everyone both times. In 2020 they had it clinched early and sat players the last week. Made it to the Super Bowl, so Andy will follow the same formula.
Buffalo - McDermott has gone both ways in the past. He played his guys in 2023 but that was the week after the Hamlin injury so maybe it was cathartic. In 2020 Allen played about 2/3rds of the finale before sitting for Matt Barkley. This time they truly have nothing to play for week 18.
Philly - Locked into the #2 spot and with QBs dealing with injuries. BUT, Barkley needs 101 to get the new rushing record against his old mates. I could see Sirianni playing guys just long enough to get the record.
LA Rams - just clinched on tiebreakers and playing the team the beat out in Week 18. McVeigh has rested his guys before.
Houston - locked in at #4. They kind of need to play some in Week 18 just to feel better about themselves after getting coal for Christmas, don't they? Will have to see.

 

[KJ]

Rams should want to secure the 3 seed and avoid hosting the loser of Minny/Detroit....much more advantageous being the 3 as opposed to the 4

 

[wiseplayer]

Rams should want to secure the 3 seed and avoid hosting the loser of Minny/Detroit....much more advantageous being the 3 as opposed to the 4

Based on the line movement going towards Seattle last night, highly doubt any starters play. We’ll probably see some Jimmy G and mostly Stetson Bennett.

 

[wiseplayer]

Extremely motivated
Detroit and Minnesota - honestly can't remember a bigger week 18 game - from #1 seed, bye week, HFA to heading on the road and facing either a red hot Baker or a rested Ram team is a massive drop off.

Very motivated
Denver - Payton wants to lock down that playoff spot to show maximum improvement
Tampa - Wants to win division and get ready to play spoiler in the Wildcard
Miami, Atlanta, Cincinnati - All clinging to life

Somewhat motivated
Baltimore - division win gets them a home game, but losing could send them back to Houston, where they just eviscerated the Texans. Next round is in Buffalo regardless. Play to win but getting through healthy is more important.
Pittsburgh - they will already know whether they can win the division. OBVIOUSLY they go all out if they have a chance to play at home next week. If they don't they can either win anyway to secure the trip to Houston or rest guys and risk losing and getting a trip to Baltimore. Tomlin has enough arrogance to not have a preference, but the fan base sure does. They probably play to win.
LA Chargers - will watch what happens in Pittsburgh with interest. I would expect Harbaugh would try to avoid a trip to Balitmore.
Green Bay & Washington - could end up with any of four opponents still in the Wildcard. Pack got handled pretty easily by Minnesota for most of the game.....currently heading to Philly as the #7 seed. Could they be interested in righting their ship and getting to #6? Not sure. Washington is fresh off earning the playoff spot, does Quinn rest guys to get ready for the Wildcard or do they have revenge on their mind against Dallas?

Unmotivated
KC - Had to win week 18 in 2022 to get HFA due to Hamlin game. Battled Titans for HFA in 2021, played everyone both times. In 2020 they had it clinched early and sat players the last week. Made it to the Super Bowl, so Andy will follow the same formula.
Buffalo - McDermott has gone both ways in the past. He played his guys in 2023 but that was the week after the Hamlin injury so maybe it was cathartic. In 2020 Allen played about 2/3rds of the finale before sitting for Matt Barkley. This time they truly have nothing to play for week 18.
Philly - Locked into the #2 spot and with QBs dealing with injuries. BUT, Barkley needs 101 to get the new rushing record against his old mates. I could see Sirianni playing guys just long enough to get the record.
LA Rams - just clinched on tiebreakers and playing the team the beat out in Week 18. McVeigh has rested his guys before.
Houston - locked in at #4. They kind of need to play some in Week 18 just to feel better about themselves after getting coal for Christmas, don't they? Will have to see.

Atlanta is motivated to play. Bucs lose and Falcons win, Falcons win the division.

 

[KJ]

Based on the line movement going towards Seattle last night, highly doubt any starters play. We’ll probably see some Jimmy G and mostly Stetson Bennett.

That would be so stupid if TB wins and the Rams end up having to play Detroit or Minnesota

 

[Loves2kickass]

I only see 2 games that really matter for week 18. Pitt/Cin and Det/Min.

 

[aplous]

Super unmotivated: New England has the 1st pick with a loss, if they beat Buffalo they lose it. Pretty simple tank game if there ever was one. HC Mayo maybe dumb enough to try and win it.

 

[wiseplayer]

That would be so stupid if TB wins and the Rams end up having to play Detroit or Minnesota

I’ve never seen McVay not rest players in this situation. He doesn’t prioritize seeding over health. The entire team is healthy.
Another note, Rams are well rested now. They’ve played 2 games the last 17 days. Their last road game was December 22nd. They've left California only once in the last 4 weeks. They won’t need to go on the road until mid January. Other than getting a 1st round bye, they couldn’t ask to be in a better spot regardless of who they play.

 

[KJ]

I’ve never seen McVay not rest players in this situation. He doesn’t prioritize seeding over health. The entire team is healthy.
Another note, Rams are well rested now. They’ve played 2 games the last 17 days. Their last road game was December 22nd. They've left California only once in the last 4 weeks. They won’t need to go on the road until mid January. Other than getting a 1st round bye, they couldn’t ask to be in a better spot regardless of who they play.

Well from what I've seen lately (it was worse before that) they would beat either GB or Wash but get completely mopped by Detroit or a rematch with Minny. Just stupid if he plays it that way but to each their own.

 

[wiseplayer]

Well from what I've seen lately (it was worse before that) they would beat either GB or Wash but get completely mopped by Detroit or a rematch with Minny. Just stupid if he plays it that way but to each their own.

Do you agree with Campbell playing everyone tonight despite this game being meaningless? Niners aren’t exactly a soft team defensively. Lions will be in a war next week and then need to travel west if they lose. Seems like tonight would be a good night not to risk depleting his roster even more.
These are great topics and I think each team approaches it according to what they need.

 

[KJ]

Do you agree with Campbell playing everyone tonight despite this game being meaningless? Niners aren’t exactly a soft team defensively. Lions will be in a war next week and then need to travel west if they lose. Seems like tonight would be a good night not to risk depleting his roster even more.
These are great topics and I think each team approaches it according to what they need.

I don't mind a team taking one week off at the end of the season although time and time again the teams with byes end up coming out sluggish the next week, you can rest assure I'll be against KC 1h after basically taking two weeks off. I wouldn't rest guys but if they needed the rest, I wouldn't rush to put I guy in that would be deemed questionable for a meaningless game. If he wanted to play, I'd let him. Think it affects some differently than others. The QB and RB take the most hits, but honestly if they want to play, go for it. Nothing worse for injury than someone going half assed, so he better be ready to go hard if he's going to play.

But the Rams actually gain a HUGE advantage by getting the 3 seed as opposed to the 4 this year. Not sure how it's worked out in years past but I simply don't see any 4 seed in the NFC remotely moving on this year. It would take a massive injury bug from either Detroit or Minnesota to lose in the WC round imo, I just think they're that much better than everyone except Philly in the NFC. I'd at least want to give myself the best chance to advance then hope for luck from there as opposed to needing it all three rounds.

 

[askias]

Ravens already out to 18. Seems crazy, but Cleveland just lost by 17 at home to the Dolphins with a backup QB. Biggest worry is that the Ravens let their foot off the gas at some point in the 2H and Cleveland back doors.

Packers -10 to the Bears. I like it if GB cares.

Bills -3 to the Pats. Pats want to hold on to the #1 pick…..don’t they?

Bucs -14 to the Saints. Have to do this, Bucs have every incentive to blow the Saints away.

Falcons -7.5 to the Panthers. Kinda of want to, kinda don’t trust the Falcons.

Broncos -9.5 to the Chiefs. Once again, not sure I trust them with a big number.

 

[B.A.R.]

I’ve never seen McVay not rest players in this situation. He doesn’t prioritize seeding over health. The entire team is healthy.
Another note, Rams are well rested now. They’ve played 2 games the last 17 days. Their last road game was December 22nd. They've left California only once in the last 4 weeks. They won’t need to go on the road until mid January. Other than getting a 1st round bye, they couldn’t ask to be in a better spot regardless of who they play.

Great note here