The Open Championship Discussion...

Perhaps...

That was a solid Sunday from him...

With that and the Players this year he is starting to grow on Sundays...

As I've mentioned previously Fowler is a future Open winner. However I don't like players in back to back weeks. Eldrick in his prime was money in this situation, Rory I wouldn't shy away from either. The current Australian Open champ just won back to back tournaments, but were not consecutive weeks.

Bitch Tits did it last year, but he also proved my other rule false - players over 40. Old guys have a good record recently in The Open - Phil, Theodore Ernest and Clarke. Plus guys like Watson and the Shark were up there, and I think The Mechanic too. Usually old guys can show up because the length on the links doesn't dismiss them. However....

length wins at St Andrews. Look at the last 3 winners here - Daly, Woods (x2) and Louis. All long. Tiger led distance in both his wins here and Louis was 4th. If the wind is right long hitters can drive the par 4s and clear the fairway bunkers on other holes.

Class wins at St Andrews - Tiger twice, Jack twice, Seve, Faldo. Daly won 2 majors and Louis was beaten in a Masters playoff and was just second in the U.S. open. Just look at 2005 here. 8 in the top 10 were major winners, and the other 2 are the 2 best players never to win a major https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_Open_Championship#Final_round. And look at the 5 that finished behind Louis


Length is not the only important stat, putting is too. The last 7 winners were in the Top 10 for GIR or putting average. 8 of the last 10 winners were in the top 2 for par 4s


The last 5 winners all played in the Scottish Open the week prior. In the last quarter century on Hamilton played in the U.S the week before. Sorry Golden Child. A number of winners took the week off

this century, 12 winners had played at least 6 Opens and finished at least 6th once. The 3 that didn't started 250/1 or better.


So so looking for an experienced, top class player, who can bomb it. Must be able to putt and finished in the top 6 previously. St Andrews suits multiple major winners, whether this is their first or not. I'll lean towards the guys that have already won a major. Looking at Scott and Kaymer. Hoping to go better then I did with Rose at the Masters and Grace at Chambers Bay
 
Big on Fowler as well, this week and moving forward. I have him for the tourney vs J Rose and vs D Johnson. This week, having played college where he did, he should play very well IMO (wind, low ball hitter, run the ball, etc). Anyone have any prop bets they're looking into?
 
The Thursday AM/Friday PM tee times might have to deal with harder conditions, especially Friday afternoon when they are expecting winds possibly approaching 35 MPH. Also, overnight rains Thursday may make for soft conditions Friday morning.

I'm liking Adam Scott this week. He meets most of the criteria outlined by Alan previously: hits it far, great iron player, finished in the top 5 the last 3 Opens, obviously is a class player. The putting is a concern, but with his broomstick in the bag and Steve Williams helping with the reads and also how to play the course, I think he has as legit a shot as anyone. He's on the right side of the first 2 round tee times and is flying well under the radar.
 
I too took a poke on Adam Scott.
Also on DJ this week vs Speith. The prices on Speith are just ridiculous for a guy that's never played a competitive round on this course (pretty sure). If the course plays softer that will help the longer hitters, sure, but you also need knowledge of the course, its not all just bombs away.
 
Rory I wouldn't shy away from either

Really?!

Fowler and Scott offer fine value imo; great off the tee...putting clearly compromised here, and there should be huge winds allowing the big hitting drivers with accuracy an advantage. I'd be shocked if Speith won this tourney to be honest. He's a clear fade as a favorite. Johnson (where's his head?) and Stenson are total wildcards in my opinion.

Bottom line is this is a shot makers course and rote routine is out; gotta know how to handle a club this weekend.
 
Fowler +140 over Speith for the tourney offers great value in my opinion...in fact, it's kind of absurd
 
Def value Horses...

I like Scott too but as Alan says he can't close whatsoever..

Good discussion so far guys:shake:
 
Just getting back from a conference. Starting to look now. BTW anyone watching the event today? Pretty cool.
 
Not sure how you can bet this week. The winds are predicted to be 40MPH plus rain. It's basically a crap shoot. If you get a good draw you could post a 65 or lower, if the weather hits, then it could get ugly. Typical Open I guess.
 
I'll just post what I'm playing in here:

Matchups:

Fowler +145 over Spieth
Fowler -125 over Rose

To win Open:

Fowler +1700
Scott +1700
David Howell: +12500

More on the matchups, smaller on Fowler and Scott to win and taking an even smaller flyer on Howell.

Good luck to everyone.
 
First it is Old Man Tom's last Open now i hear it is also Ivor Robsons?? That blows. That guy is great.
 
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