The Offseason Blows--News and Notes

West Virginia files missing

School investigating disappearance of football records

Posted: Tuesday January 15, 2008 6:10PM; Updated: Tuesday January 15, 2008 6:10PM

MORGANTOWN, W.Va. (AP) -- West Virginia is investigating the disappearance of records associated with the school's football program.
Citing anonymous sources, The Charleston Gazette reported Tuesday that files kept in the private office of former coach Rich Rodriguez disappeared between Dec. 16 and Jan. 3, along with strength and conditioning records from the weight room.
Assistant athletic director Mike Fragale told The Associated Press some files are missing but declined to say what's in them. He said the athletic department won't have any further comment until its investigation is finished.
The newspaper report claimed the missing documents included players' personal contact information, scholarship payments and class attendance records.
 
Early entries roundup

Cal's Jackson, Oklahoma's Smith to enter NFL draft

Posted: Tuesday January 15, 2008 5:19PM; Updated: Tuesday January 15, 2008 5:51PM

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Cal speedster DeSean Jackson had a disappointing '07 campaign.
Peter Read Miller/SI


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</td></tr></tbody></table>BERKELEY, Calif. (AP) -- California receiver DeSean Jackson will skip his senior season to enter the NFL draft.
Jackson, a star punt returner who had an underwhelming junior season as a receiver, waited until the last possible day to declare his long-assumed intention to leave the Golden Bears (7-6), who lost six of their final eight games.
Jackson had 65 receptions for 762 yards and six touchdowns this season while battling injuries. He returned just one punt for a touchdown in the season opener against Tennessee, giving him a Pac-10 record six punt returns for scores in his career.
Jackson had 59 catches for 1,060 yards and nine TDs in 2006. He finished his Cal career third in school history with 2,423 yards receiving and 22 TDs.
Smith becomes third Sooner to declare for draft

NORMAN, Okla. (AP) -- Cornerback Reggie Smith has become the third University of Oklahoma junior to declare for the NFL draft.
Sooners coach Bob Stoops confirmed Tuesday that Smith, who ranked No. 4 on the team with 78 tackles, was joining teammates Malcolm Kelly, a receiver, and Curtis Lofton, a linebacker, in deciding to enter the NFL Draft.
Smith, who missed the Fiesta Bowl with a toe injury, started 13 games in 2007 and had three interceptions and one fumble recovery, which he returned 61 yards for a touchdown against Miami.
 
ACC Auditing: Crystal Ball, Revisited
By SMQ
Posted on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 02:31:00 PM EDT


As muddled a league as it was, the actual results in the ACC weren't as upside-down from the summer guesses as might be expected - from the preseason consensus of 18 publications at Stassen.com, from most underrated to most overrated:

<table cellpadding="2" cellspacing="2"> <tbody><tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(164, 74, 74) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="left">
</td> <td align="center">Preseason</td> <td align="center">Actual Finish</td> <td align="center">+/-</td> <td align="center">Rightest</td> <td align="center">Wrongest</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Virginia</td> <td align="left">4th Coast.</td> <td align="left">2nd Coast. (6-2)</td> <td align="left">+ 2</td> <td align="left">P.Steele, Surefire (T-3rd)</td> <td align="left">SportsForm (5th)</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="left">Wake Forest</td> <td align="left">4th Atl.</td> <td align="left">T-2nd Atl. (5-3)</td> <td align="left">+ 2</td> <td align="left">SI, S&S (2nd)</td> <td align="left">Surefire, SportsForm (6th)</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Boston Coll.</td> <td align="left">2nd Atl.</td> <td align="left">1st Atl. (6-3)</td> <td align="left">+ 1</td> <td align="left">Four 1st Place Picks</td> <td align="left">P. Steele (6th)</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="left">Clemson</td> <td align="left">3rd Atl.</td> <td align="left">T-2nd Atl. (5-3)</td> <td align="left">+ 1</td> <td align="left">Surefire (T-2nd)</td> <td align="left">Four 5th Place Picks</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">NC State</td> <td align="left">6th Atl.</td> <td align="left">T-5th Atl. (3-5)</td> <td align="left">+ 1</td> <td align="left">Four 5th Place Picks</td> <td align="left">P. Steele (T-3rd)</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="left">N. Carolina</td> <td align="left">5th Coast.</td> <td align="left">4th Coast. (3-5)</td> <td align="left">+ 1</td> <td align="left">SportsForm (4th)</td> <td align="left">Everybody (5th)</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Duke</td> <td align="left">6th Coast.</td> <td align="left">6th Coast. (0-8)</td> <td align="left">-</td> <td align="left">Everybody (6th)</td> <td align="left">None</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="left">Maryland</td> <td align="left">5th Atl.</td> <td align="left">T-5th Atl. (3-5)</td> <td align="left">-</td> <td align="left">Five 5th Place Picks</td> <td align="left">CFN (1st)</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Va. Tech</td> <td align="left">1st Coast.</td> <td align="left">1st Coast. (8-1)</td> <td align="left">-</td> <td align="left">Everybody (1st)</td> <td align="left">ATS Consulting (2nd)</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="left">Geo. Tech</td> <td align="left">2nd Coast.</td> <td align="left">3rd Coast. (4-4)</td> <td align="left">-1</td> <td align="left">Seven 3rd Place Picks</td> <td align="left">Eleven 2nd Place Picks</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Miami</td> <td align="left">3rd Coast.</td> <td align="left">5th Coast. (2-6)</td> <td align="left">-2</td> <td align="left">Ten 3rd Place Picks</td> <td align="left">Eight 2nd Place Picks</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="left">Fla. State</td> <td align="left">1st Atl.</td> <td align="left">3rd Atl. (4-4)</td> <td align="left">-3</td> <td align="left">CFN, S&S (3rd)</td> <td align="left">Ten 1st Place Picks</td> </tr> </tbody></table> Virginia is the biggest overachiever: no one picked UVA higher than a tie for third in the Coastal, and the Cavs were playing Virginia Tech (which all but poor ATS Consulting got right at the top of the Coastal) for the division title on the last week of the season; outside of the division format, UVA tied Boston College for the second-best conference record in the regular season, was probably a full six-seven spots better than the consensus would have guessed if it ranked the teams 1-12. That's what winning six games by five points or less will do for you. For Wake Forest, too, again - more on the Deacons later.
New management did not pay the expected dividends for the Florida schools, which were the most overrated, again. Almost no one thought Florida State would finish worse than second in the Atlantic and no one had Miami worse than third in the Coastal, when the Canes would actually lose to North Carolina and NC State, get blown away in the Orange Bowl farewell against Virginia and finish with the worst conference record outside of Duke (although they did beat Florida State).
Not that I have any room to critique preseason Sunshine love, as no pundit anywhere swallowed the notion of coaches rejuvenating superior talent at the old standbys as wholly as yours truly. On Miami:

  • These, as the lovely chaps at the BBC would say, are the main points: last year's defense was a roughly average Miami D, which is to say it was very, very good, while the offense was way, way below average, by more than a touchdown, and still all but one conference loss was decided by a touchdown or less, including Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and Florida State. If the defense holds court (there's no indication it won't) and the offense reverts to anywhere near the mean, even just back to the mid-twenties per game in scoring, UM will be much more competitive overall. The gap has closed in a hurry, but given the competition in the division, I still think Miami has the best players.
    - - -
Totally, utterly wrong in every way, and still not nearly as wrong as my thoughts on the Canes' quarterback prospects:
  • If Wright beats out Freeman for the starting job, his convenient precedent is Brock Berlin, another slightly confused, iffy-armed blue chip who disappointed as a junior ... but dramatically rebounded as a senior ... Wright has every tool at his disposal to do the same: a truly grizzled offensive line, an identifiable workhorse, receivers that athletically rival anybody's, if years-old recruiting rankings are to be believed, and a new playcaller whose offense last fall scored more points in Blacksburg (Georgia Tech put up 38 under Patrick Nix) than Virginia Tech has allowed to any offense, anywhere, in the last three years ... The defense here should be capable of the same and so should a more experienced Wright...
    - - -
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Yeah, man, it was pretty ugly.
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I ranked Florida State eighth on what I called my "intuitive ballot" (FSU would be 16th in the more methodical version that was actually submitted to the BlogPoll, one spot behind Miami), and I knew instinctively I'd probably regret it:
  • It's inescapable that, after a solid decade in the top five, FSU has devolved into a shell of its once-great self, and hasn't even approached the year-end top ten since Chris Weinke left, though they've started there or found themselves there within the first few games of the season every year since. Clearly, it takes a disaster of a season with losses to NC State, Maryland and Wake Forest to fully cure the prognostocenti of its perpetual belief in the rejuvneative abilities of all that speed, because our minds have been so conditioned that way: when we see the garnet and gold, we still see the lean, aggressive, quarterback-killing machines that sauntered over the corpses of rest of the ACC. The players look the same, and Bobby Bowden's still puttering around with his folksy jowls, and so we forget what decade we're living in.
    - - -
But, yes, I still picked FSU to win the Atlantic, and by a fairly wide margin. At least I wasn't alone. Re: Wake Forest, I was fairly adamant about the Deacons' return to the pack:

  • Wake Forest is not a good team. In fact, it wasn't a good team when it won the ACC last year. It was an exceedingly mediocre team with an outstanding kicker and an unsustainable barrage of fortune at its back. On an every-down basis, Wake was what it's always been - slightly below average - evidenced in it being outgained overall in league games despite a 7-2 record. The conference should be tougher this year, but even if it's the same parity-driven parade of underthrown curl routes, the Deacons are a middling bowl team at best and a lamentable bottom-dweller at worst. They'll be doing just fine to finish 7-5.
    - - -
Though I pegged Wake fifth in the Atlantic, three spots below their eventual tie for second (third, in reality, considering the lopsided head-to-head loss against fellow No. 2 Clemson) was not terribly off the mark: the Deacons were better in a lot of ways than in their conference championship season, but were still outgained in conference games, rode another substantial turnover margin therein and were convincingly dropped by each of the top two teams in the division en route to, as predicted, a middling bowl game. The "barrage of fortune" was sustainable, although to a much less entent than in 2006; it's probably fair by now to call Wake a good team after two years of just getting by, since that's what the huge majority of the conference tries to do in its lo-fi style of play (hello, Virginia) and the Deacons happen to be particularly good at it. I was with the pack that put Clemson, Georgia Tech and (obviously) Duke in the right place at the beginning of the year, but was wrong in some way about almost every one else. The proudest non-obvious moment of my ACC forecasting might have been a throwaway explanation for North Carolina's ongoing pain:

  • Hang-Ups: Realistically, UNC can expect a baseline of three wins - say, James Madison, Duke and either East Carolina, Maryland, N.C. State or Wake Forest. It would be a leap for a team this young to win two of those last four, and a miracle for it to reach a bowl game. Justify Thyself: [Butch] Davis has to assume the position for a year or two and let his little Tar Heels learn the hard way how to compete. Expect a lot of admirable efforts, a couple scares against the certifiably terrible offenses of the ACC, but very few wins. Still better than Duke.
    - - -
All of that was right: UNC was young (two-thirds of the starters were freshmen or sophomores), did put up a fight (five of eight losses were by a touchdown or less) and won exactly the "baseline" level as predicted: over James Madison and Duke, and of the four "toss-up" games, only against Maryland. The only deviation from the prediction was a win over Miami in October, which says at least as much about my failure to gauge the Hurricanes as a pending failure as it does my vision of UNC as a sniper-in-waiting. If I continue to be right about the Tar Heels' optimistic prospects going forward, the rest of the conference is in for some pain.
 
Applewhite Impact

by HornsFan Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 10:41:25 AM EDT

Though there are some who will be excited by a Major Applewhite return to Austin just because He's Major Applewhite, the potential hire excites me for a number of much more substantive reasons. The storylines I'm interested in:
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Recruiting, generally. Major's already proven himself an able recruiter in his young career, helping Nick Saban haul in one of the country's best classes in 2008. More importantly, he's shown excellent ability to work the Texas high school network. Between Muschamp, Applewhite, and Mack Brown, the sky's the limit. Or is what USC is doing these days the limit? You get what I mean...
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Recruiting, quarterback. A month ago, when Terrelle Pryor officially dropped Texas from his list, I noted that the focus now returned to Russell Shepard and Garrett Gilbert for the 2009 class. I wrote that though I would be happy with either quarterback, I'd prefer Shepard for his versatility and suitability for a run-pass hybrid spread offense. If Applewhite comes to Texas, my enthusiasm for Shepard only increases. (Gilbert seems better suited for a pro style offense, which Texas has abandoned - rightly - since Vince Young took over.)
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The Future. Some have questioned why Applewhite would come to Texas as some sort of co-coordinator/running backs coach. It's a legitimate question, but the answer seems obvious: the grooming has begun. Assuming Major wants Texas like Texas wants Major, coming on board now - even while Greg Davis is here - makes sense. Whether this is a grooming for Offensive Coordinator, Head Coach, or both, if Austin is where Major Applewhite ultimately wants to be, there's no reason to wait.
And of course in the short term - as argued below - this also brings a fresh perspective to Greg Davis, who everyone agrees could use some new blood.
 
Tuesday Hub Is Committed (Or Should Be)
By SMQ
Posted on Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 09:43:21 AM EDT


• We Hardly Knew Ye: Felix Jones, Curtis Lofton, Michael Oher, <strike>Macho Harris</strike>. Jones joined Darren McFadden Monday in officially throwing his name into the draft hat, where he, too, is a dead certain first round pick as long as he doesn't trip and fall running the 40 at a combine or something. The slightly bigger McFadden kept Jones from ever becoming an every-down back, but Felix was always the more dangerous of the two on a per-touch basis: including kickoffs, Jones averaged 10.5 yards every time he touched the ball in his career, and almost 7.7 yards per carry, the best career number in the nation for players with 300-plus carries. His return could have dramatically softened his more heralded teammate's departure, but as it stands, Bobby Petrino takes over a once-exploisve offense with Casey Dick at quarterback and...Bueller? This fall is shaping up as a classically painful transition year for the Razorbacks (see below).

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Felix Jones to senior year: Get out of my face.
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Lofton came out of nowhere - literally, Kingfisher, Okla., from whence he arrived to log 28 tackles in his first two seasons - to win Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year with a staggering 157 total tackles as a junior, 94 of them solo, along with 10.5 tackles for loss. He also made what sticks in my mind as the defining play of the Big 12 Championship Game, decisevly hammering Chase Daniel down for a short loss on an attempted option in the second quarter, when it was becoming obvious the possibly title-bound Tigers were not in for their usual field day on offense; in Oklahoma's first win over Missouri in the regular season (a much less successful day for the OU defense overall), Lofton had 14.5 tackles and returned a fumble for a touchdown. He does not have top-end speed, though, and will probably go in the second round as it currently stands. Oher, progenitor of Michael Lewis' heralded book Blindside and the attendant mythology of Ed Orgeron, master recruiter/mumbler, apparently feels his heartwarming story and 325-pound mountain of a body has adequately prepared him for the pros, and apparently the pros agree: the once-tender, unpolished prospect might go in the first round, the second at the latest.
Virginia Tech's Harris, reportedly en route to the League Saturday, reversed his decision Monday and will be back with the Hokies, according to secondary coach/former Tech DB Torrian Gray, who shared a text message from Macho with the Washington Post: "Coach, I'm coming back." Obviously, his decision wasn't a result of a sudden lack of having or being characterized by qualities considered manly, esp. when manifested in an assertive, self-conscious, or dominating way - when one nicknames oneself or accepts the nickname, "Macho," he has certain obligations, after all.

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Mallett: Lumbering Hog?
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• Wherefore Art Thou, Ryan Mallett? Papa Mallett denies it in the Detroit Free Press, but reports rolled in Monday night that Michigan transfer Ryan Mallett has already enrolled at Arkansas, where he'll have three years to play after sitting out 2008, ostensibly under the high-flying yet ever-wandering tutelage of passing guru Bobby Petrino. Not a surprising choice considering Mallett's history with the program - he reportedly grew up a Razorback fan in east Texas, attended football camps in Fayetteville and might have signed there out of high school if not for the rustic passing philosophy under Houston Nutt - but it does raise eyebrowns given the experience of the last homegrown, pocket-bound blue-chipper to sign with the Hogs. Limit your text messages, stay off university-owned computers and invest in a good e-mail filter, son. And a lawyer. Yeah, two or three lawyers. An unnamed "source close to the team" told the Fayetteville Morning News Mallett checked into a dorm room Monday, though Arkansas compliance director Marvin Caston will confirm only that the school has a "permission to speak" letter from Michigan at the moment; he expected an official release for transfer later today.
For the record, Mallett Sr., trying to sound openminded in the Free Press:
  • "We haven't made a decision yet, but everybody and their dog is saying my son has done this or that," Jim Mallett said Monday in an interview with the Associated Press. "I can tell you, we visited Arkansas and we've talked to Texas A&M and Tennessee. But we're not sure what is going on at Tennessee because they hired an offensive coordinator that has run the spread."
    - - -
The wilds of Arkansas football being what they are, I'd be a little concerned for Mallett's safety at this point if he didn't transfer to Arkansas, although only a little bit more than if he actually did. As with any other avenue in life, it's best to just avoid the entire state to whatever extent possible. • We Commit to Being Noncommittal on This Matter. Not surprisingly, bureaucracy confirms its belief in further bureaucracy - Michael Adams' push to form a study group to look at an eight-team, NCAA-sanctioned playoff proposal found little traction among fellow presidents Monday at the Association's Executive Committee meeting in Nashville, which Adams chaired, but he did get a cursory promise on the issue: representative presidents on the committee wanted to take the issue back to conference commissioners, fellow presidents and the BCS committee ( which Adams' plan would have abolished) before moving forward with any plans to consider the formation of a subcommittee which might consider taking action at some point in the future. Almost certainly, the systemic "tweaking" Adams invoked now will have to come from the conference commissioners overseeing the BCS - the "Plus One" crowd - rather than from on high, if it's going to get anywhere anytime soon.
• Terrelle Pryor Watch. Of course everybody wants to know he's going to school first, but the Free Press looks at the fates of Kyle Wright, Rhett Bomar and Mark Sanchez before him and wonders: might Terrelle Pryor be a bust? On second thought, don't even read that link. Here's a quick test for whether Pryor will be a bust: if you're a Michigan partisan and he signs with Ohio State, he'll be a bust. If you're an Ohio State partisan and he signs with Michigan, he'll be a bust. This is a guaranteed formula (remember this when you read it); thousands of currently panting obsessives will have decided by next month they never really wanted the kid anyway - these top-rated quarterbacks are always busts! Watch out for our three-star kid...
Otherwise, for disinterested observers, wear protective goggles to keep your eyeballs from melting out of their sockets when you watch Pryor run.
Coming and Going.
- - -
• Major Applewhite will be back in Austin today, where he's expected to be offered the open position of running backs coach on Mack Brown's staff - apparently a step down from his coordinator position in 'Bama. Never underestimate the lure of the alma mater, I guess.
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Hey, once a `Horn...
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Elsewhere in coaching turnover: Auburn expects to name a defensive coordinator to replace Texas-bound Will Muschamp by 'midweek,' though the Birmingham News doesn't bother to toss out any names. Georgia tight ends coach David Johnson is also talking to West Virginia about taking over the Mountaineer offensive line. • Not going anywhere: Sylvester Croom, who signed an extension with Mississippi State through 2011, or until the Bulldogs fall into another rut of consecutive three-win seasons, whichever comes first. More interestingly, Pete Carroll had every opportunity to commit to his future at USC Monday, but didn't – just back from postseason, dead period vacation in Hawaii, he instead answered the annual round of questions about his interest in open NFL jobs with uncharacteristic silence:
  • "I'm not talking about anything," Carroll said Monday upon his arrival at Heritage Hall. "I'm not commenting about anything."
    - - -
And so L.A. holds its collective breath until the jobs are filled. I mean, it holds its breath downtown, anyway, but you know, metaphor... • Ex-Miami interception machine Kirby Freeman is back home in Texas, where he began classes and went through his first workout Monday at Baylor. (HT: The Wiz) Freeman will be eligible to take over Art Briles' zig-zagging spread passing game this fall thanks to an NCAA waiver that absolved him of the usual year on the bench for transfers – since he redshirted at Miami, this would have effectively ended his career – prompting much love for the Association from Briles: “I think it shows that you’ve got to have faith in the NCAA. It’s a fair and honest system," he told the Waco Tribune, not adding, "Especially when they subvert standard procedures to my direct benefit." Although anyone who watched Freeman play at Miami will dispute his potential benefit, even at Baylor.
• Early enrollment fanfare has subsided at Notre Dame: unlike past January enrollees, incoming offensive lineman Trevor Robinson and defensive end Sean Cwynar started classes Monday in relative anonymity. Well, they are linemen.
• BYU and Boise State are the premier mid-major programs in the country at the moment, and if they still are in four years - a long shot, given the inevitable turnover of such distinctions - the four-game series finalized by the schools Monday for 2012-15 will be a nice min-rivalry.
• The Michigan-Florida <strike>Citrus</strike> Capital One Bowl beat all three primetime BCS games prior to the mythical championship in the ratings, which might say more about the physical incapacity of a hungover audience on New Year's afternoon than it does about any football game.
 
<table><tbody><tr><td colspan="3" class="storytitle"> Tuesday Question - Wish Lists For 2008 </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="primaryimage" valign="top">
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</td> <td valign="top"> <table bgcolor="#f5f5f5" border="0" cellpadding="4" cellspacing="1" width="60%"> <tbody><tr valign="top"> <td nowrap="nowrap" valign="middle">By Staff
CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Jan 14, 2008
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The holidays might be over, but here are the wish lists for the 2008 season ... just over seven months away.
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<table id="table2" align="right" border="0" cellspacing="4" width="200"> <tbody><tr> <td bgcolor="#ffffcc"> Past TQs
- The 3 Big Bowl Questions - What are you most looking forward to from the bowls? - Did the BCS get it right?
- Who deserves a spot more, OSU or WVU? - What BCS matchups do you want? - LSU, Oregon or Kansas - The leading 5 for the Heisman - Early Pick It: LSU vs. Ohio State - Three BCS sleepers - Midseason Bests - 3 Big Calls for the Second Half - The biggest disappointment - 5 most overrated teams - I was dead/on right/wrong about ... - USC, LSU or Oklahoma? - Was the App St win good or bad for college football?
- 3 Sleeper Teams
- Predicting the Season - 3 things we're sure of - What to look for on Signing Day
- Bears or Colts? - Early bowl surprises and trends - 3 things to look for from the bowls - Do you want the Alabama job? - What are the 3 best non-BCS bowls? - Who's 2nd in the Heisman race? - Michigan-OSU rematch? - Michigan or Ohio State? - Should Louisville be No. 3? - The nat'l title game will be ... - The best one-loss team - Rule changes to help the flow - The Midseason Stuff - The real top five ranking - The early coach of the year is ...? - These three teams are for real, these three aren't
- After 2 weeks, who's better, who's worse?
- 10 Greatest Quarterbacks of All-Time
- 10 Greatest Defensive Players of All-Time
- 10 Greatest Regular Season Games of All-Time
- 10 Greatest Playmakers of All-Time
- 10 Worst Heisman Winners
- 10 Greatest Bowl Games
- All-Time Offensive Team
- All-Time Defensive Team </td> </tr> </tbody></table> [FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif][SIZE=-2] Pete Fiutak [/SIZE][/FONT]<o:p>[FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif][SIZE=-2][/FONT]</o:p> Q: Your 2008 college football wish list ...[/SIZE]
A: 10. Oklahoma vs. Ohio State in the Rose Bowl or the Fiesta Bowl. They really might be the two best teams in the country, but I can't handle the whining that'll ensure from early December until the first week of January if either one plays in the national title.

9. In our new spread world, a downfield pass of more than 20 yards.

8. Another Oklahoman article ripping on an Oklahoma State player.

7. Another Kansas coming from out of nowhere to shock the world and keep everyone on their toes.

6. Notre Dame to be really, really good, or really, really bad.

5. The teams that got screwed over by a coach leaving for a supposedly bigger opportunity to be better.

4. The SEC to be half as good as its fans think it is, and CBS games just as good as last year's.

3. Everyone who whines about a lack of a college football playoff be forced to watch all five 2008 BCS games again. We all want some sort of a playoff. Don't be fooled by NCAA-type proposals, it's not happening any time soon. Just enjoy college football for what it is.

2. The BCS selection types thinks first about what the best matchups might be and second about tradition and ticket sales.

1. A regular season half as good as 2007's.
Richard Cirminiello [FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif][SIZE=-2][/FONT] <o:p> </o:p><o:p> </o:p> [FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif][SIZE=-2][/SIZE][/FONT] <o:p> </o:p><o:p>[FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif][SIZE=-2][/SIZE][/FONT]</o:p> Q: Your 2008 college football wish list ...
A:When it comes to a wish list, mine looks a lot like a teenager’s; not too much on it, but each wish is pretty hefty.

1. Chaos. Maybe it’ll never influence the powers-that-be in the NCAA, but then again, three or four unbeaten programs at the end of the regular season just might create a tipping point in the debate over a plus-one system in the BCS. While I’m making out my list, better make those perfect programs Penn State, Florida, Oklahoma, and USC. If you want change in the sport, you might as well have Joe Paterno, Urban Meyer, Bob Stoops, and Pete Carroll as your spokesmen.

2. More civility from the nation’s head coaches. Is it just me, or have coaches become increasingly incorrigible with the media over the last few years? Although Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy became the poster man-child of boorish behavior last fall, he’s far from alone. I realize it’s a tough job that’s steeped in pressure and long hours, but lighten up, fellas. You’ve got great gigs, making well over the national average. Try curbing the holier-than-thou arrogance and outright contempt for anyone that questions your methods, General. It’s gotten old, and really annoying.

3. Parity, the sequel. The real beauty of 2007 was that no one was safe, regardless of who was on the other sideline. That’s good for the fans, the players, and the sport. A complete lack of predictability is one of the things that made this one of the most entertaining seasons in recent memory. Give us a second invite to the parity in 2008.

4. Access to complete blocking statistics. I know these are about as easy to obtain as a Nintendo Wii, but wouldn’t it be sweet to have statistical proof of which offensive linemen are truly getting it done and which are getting destroyed? It’s the one position that’s so difficult to accurately size up, something that frustrates me every fall. Honest. John Harris<o:p>[FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif][SIZE=-2][/SIZE][/FONT]</o:p> Q: Your 2008 college football wish list ...[/SIZE]
A: 1. Another 50 touchdown season from Florida’s Tim Tebow 2. Appalachian State getting title number four and “Another {insert D1A team}” notch on its belt.
3. Arkansas’ head coach Bobby Petrino looking for another job after a six win season, just to confirm what a mercenary he’s become.
4. Rick Neuheisel and Pete Carroll ‘battling’ (Clowns vs. Krumpers style) at mid-field before the USC-UCLA matchup in the Rose Bowl.
5. Coach O on the sidelines as close to Houston, Texas as possible.
6. The wishbone to make a comeback.
7. The Rich Rodriguez effect on the Big Ten, i.e. speedy, spread offenses that are fun to watch.
8. The ACC to get some respect after spending much of the last two years in the BCS conference cellar.
9. Watching Texas Tech’s Michael Crabtree for another 12 games to see if he can catch 150 balls in a single season. But, we’ll settle for 143, which would break former Houston star Jason Phillips’ long-standing receiving record.
10. QB Mark Sanchez to beat out Mitch Mustain at USC and force the former Springdale star to transfer to Ole Miss and play for Houston Nutt.
11. Three undefeated BCS conference teams, creating another season of absolute chaos in the postseason.
12. Duke to have multiple wins in a season
13. Texas to play some pass defense.

 <o:p> Matthew Zemek</o:p>
[FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif][SIZE=-2][/SIZE][/FONT] <o:p> </o:p><o:p> </o:p><o:p>[FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif][SIZE=-2][/FONT]</o:p> Q: Your 2008 college football wish list ...[/SIZE]<o:p></o:p> A: 12) A new rule instituted by the NCAA allowing players to transfer without having to sit for a season.

11) Leadership from Myles Brand or anyone else on the various issues plaguing college football (and basketball).

10) New BCS rules that will destroy the existing tie-ins and allow all four non-championship bowls to freely mix and match, thereby creating the best games. USC should have been able to play Georgia, but rules got in the way; ditto for Oklahoma playing Virginia Tech, which also should have happened. If we're going to have a controversial title game, let's at least have other BCS bowls that match elite teams and keep the debate going when...

..... 9) A Plus-One is instituted. C'mon, Mike Slive. One game on the second Saturday of January at 8 p.m. Eastern time. Not that hard, and not a ridiculous or otherwise excessive extension of the season. No worries about interfering with academics--not with one extra game. Do it. Now.

8) No antics from teams who find it hard to get motivated every week.

7) A coach handling a job opening/inquiry/search with distinction and class on an absolute (not comparative) scale.

6) Fewer injuries to stars in the SEC and Pac-10, especially due to cheap shot blocks.

5) For Louisville to have a better season than Arkansas.

4) For Greg Schiano to not call three timeouts late in the first half of a rout against a lower-division opponent.

3) For the Big East Conference to be more humble and do its talking on the field, not through early-September commercials.

2) For Navy and Houston to see their hires of minority head coaches get rewarded with good results, while Ty Willingham saves his career with a winning season at Washington.

1) For Vanderbilt to have a winning season. That program deserves better than what it's received over the past three years.

</td></tr></tbody></table>
 
Wednesday Hub Takes It to the House
By SMQ
Posted on Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 09:59:14 AM EDT


• We Hardly Knew Ye: DeSean Jackson, Reggie Smith. DeSean-long gone, from Cal now as he perpetually was from cornerbacks and hapless special teamers throughout his career.

<table cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3"> <caption align="top">DeSean Jackson, This is Your College Career</caption> <tbody><tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(164, 74, 74) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">
</td> <td align="center">Rec.</td> <td align="center">Yards</td> <td align="center">Yds./Rec.</td> <td align="center">TD</td> <td align="center">Punt Ret.</td> <td align="center">Yds./Ret.</td> <td align="center">TD</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2005</td> <td align="center">38</td> <td align="center">601</td> <td align="center">15.8</td> <td align="center">7</td> <td align="center">1</td> <td align="center">49.0</td> <td align="center">1</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2006</td> <td align="center">59</td> <td align="center">1,060</td> <td align="center">18.0</td> <td align="center">9</td> <td align="center">25</td> <td align="center">18.2</td> <td align="center">4</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2007</td> <td align="center">65</td> <td align="center">762</td> <td align="center">11.7</td> <td align="center">6</td> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="center">10.8</td> <td align="center">1</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">Career</td> <td align="center">162</td> <td align="center">2,423</td> <td align="center">14.96</td> <td align="center">22</td> <td align="center">38</td> <td align="center">16.7</td> <td align="center">6</td> </tr> </tbody></table> Jackson was the top receiver in the country out of high school and should be the first receiver off the board in April, less for his pure receiving talents - the other projected first-rounders, like Early Doucet, James Hardy, Malcolm Kelly and Limas Sweed, are much bigger, more physical receivers with more consistent college numbers than Jackson - than for his all-purpose ability, both as a deep threat on offense, for reverses and obviously in the return game, where he had a debilitating, Devin Hester-like effect on opposing punt teams, which dared not kick in his direction; in fact, during the Bears' terrible 1-6 slide to end the regular season, Jackson returned all of three punts, for 34 yards, because they steadily sailed out of bounds (only five other punts were returned by different returners in the same span). NFL teams won't give him that much respect at first, but they will eventually. Just like Tennessee...and Oregon...and Arizona...and UCLA...

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(Even if you’re not an ODB fan, you’ll want to hang with that last one till the 1:40 mark)
- - -</p> Oklahoma's Smith - the third OU junior to go pro, after Kelly and linebacker Curtis Lofton - is a dangerous return man, too, having brought a punt back for a touchdown as a sophomore and handled the Sooners' regular duties there the last two years, but he's a borderline first rounder for his unusual size (6-1, 198) and cover skills, which landed him on the coaches' and media's all-Big 12 teams. Smith started 36 of 39 career games in one of the deepest secondaries in the country, which is statement enough.
• Welcome the Rooney Rule. The NFL's "Rooney Rule," entering its sixth postseason coach-swapping cycle, was enacted to proactively balance the dearth of black head coaches in an overwhelmingly black league rather than wait for a slowly evolving equality, and to good effect. Athletic directors at their annual meeting Tuesday decided a similar initiative - asking schools to include at least one minority interview in coaching searches, minus the fines for noncompliance, of course - sounded like a good idea to push more black/minority coaching hires in the NCAA, as well, which goes into 2008 with seven black head coaches and one Polynesian at 119 schools:

  • "I really, truly believe it's the right thing to do," said Dutch Baughman, executive director of the Texas-based Division I-A Athletic Directors Association, who oversaw the five-month process of drawing up "acceptable standards" and sent them to all 120 major football-playing schools Tuesday. Like pro football's Rooney Rule, they call for schools searching for a head coach to interview "one or more" minority candidates.
    Unlike the 5-year-old Rooney Rule, which subjects NFL teams to fines, the colleges' policy doesn't carry penalties. The I-A athletics directors, the NCAA and other organizations question the propriety and legality of infringing on individual schools' hiring practices.
    "The best we can do," Baughman said, "is provide recommendations and so on and respect the fact that there's institutional prerogative."
    The policy targets football for now. The sport, with one of the most criticized minority-hiring track records in college or pro sports, employed no black head coaches as recently as 1992. There were seven minority coaches last season, less than 6% representation in a sport in which 54% of the players are black or other minorities.
    - - -
None of the high profile coaching searches in December except UCLA and Nebraska [originally forgot Turner Gill - ed.] seriously bandied about black names, and in this culture, don't expect to see many schools follow Purdue's "early action" example of naming a successor for Joe Tiller after the 2008 season, which drew heat from the Black Coaches Association for circumventing the usual job posting requirements (since-ousted UCLA offensive coordinator Jay Norvell was reportedly a finalist at Purdue before losing out to Eastern Kentucky's Danny Hope, according to the Indy Star). Assuming all the athletic directors are still primarily interested in hiring qualified, winning coaches, this shouldn't come up much. I mean, it shouldn't, but we'll see.
• Terrelle Pryor Watch. The balleyhooed Pennsylvania quarterback has moved up his visit to Ann Arbor from Feb. 1, less than a week before signing day, to this Saturday, cancelling a planned visit to Penn State to accommodate the Wolverines. Brian Cook says go to the freakin' basketball game.
Out of the blue, Pryor also added LSU to the apparent Michigan-Ohio State tussle and plans to visit Baton Rouge on Jan. 25, new "mentor" Charlie Batch in tow, after an effective pitch from Gary Crowton: "Charlie spoke to them and then I spoke to coach Gary Crowton and I liked a lot of what he was saying. I wouldn't say they're as high up as the others because I am just learning about them, but I like what they're talking about in changing the offense for me." A "change" in Crowton's versatile scheme - already equipped with a shotgun spread option package - is probably better described as a "focus." Ryan Perrilloux says "WTF?"
Oregon is still tentatively hoping for a Pryor visit, but not holding its breath.
Coming and Going.
- - -
• State law on filling job postings requires Texas to wait until the end of the day to formalize the hire, but Major Applewhite is expected to return to the alma mater as runnings back coach after interviewing and spending Tuesday in Austin. Obligatory disclaimer: the linked story is via the Birmingham News' Ian Rappaport, who was notoriously wrong about Rich Rodriguez's pending departure to Alabama in December '06. He's got pretty significant backup on this one.
normal_PeteCarroll_songgirls.jpg

Carroll, leaving coaching paradise? Don't make him <strike>laugh</strike> refuse to give any comment indicating his intentions in either direction.
- - -
Elsewhere, the L.A. Times' T.J. Simers insists Pete Carroll is leaving USC for the NFL, much to the consternation of tight-lipped Pete Carroll. (At least I think that's what he's saying. Simers is not entirely comprehensible here, in that the wink-wink, heavily ironic nature of the writing implies non-specific sarcasm, or at least that there's more there between the lines than "Carroll had no comment," which is what it amounts to. It would be nice to have some way to decipher the implied subtext, if it exists. Whatever he's trying to say, it's an incomplete thought that communicates very little). Trojan reporter/blogger Scott Wolf wrote Tuesday that Falcons owner/Home Depot magnate Arthur Blank offered Carroll $5-$10 million last week - but not complete control of personnel decisions, a possible dealbreaker - to hop to Atlanta, but has had no other substantial additions since writing last week that Carroll is "unlikely to join Atlanta." Again, Carroll ain't saying jack about the NFL to nobody. On the flipside, Carroll's old offensive coordinator, Norm Chow, is taking time to evaluate his options after being unexpectedly fired by the Tennessee Titans Tuesday. But the L.A. Times quickly speculated he could fulfill longstanding Bruin rumors/wishes by sliding into UCLA's vacant offensive coordinator position under Rick Neuheisel, joining defensive coordinator DeWayne Walker to form what Wolf thinks would represent the best staff in America - Walker and Chow were both heavily considered for the head coaching job before it went to Neuheisel (acoustic guitar-playing white guy over two minority underlings, BCA!) - and one that would certainly have Pete Carroll's attention around town, at least. Chow confirmed to the paper that UCLA contacted his oldest son/agent Tuesday night; the paper says L.A. can offer $300,000-$400,000 for a coordinator, a so-so chunk for a veteran with Chow's track record and less than half his $1 million salary in the pros. For now, he's going to "sit back and stay home and walk the dog and think about some stuff."
More concretely, Hawaii has reportedly reached a deal with defensive coordinator Fred McMackin to replace June Jones as head coach and will announce him this morning...er, this afternoon, for the mainlanders.
Miami fired its wide receivers coach, Marquis Mosely, for reasons not articulated by the Miami Herald but plainly obvious to anyone who watched the Hurricanes' talented receivers in Mosely's two-year tenure: they could get open, but if the quarterback had time and managed to get the ball where it was supposed to be, they couldn't catch. Whether or not Mosely was working hard enough to correct the chronic dropsies, he took the axe for it.
• Oklahoma got a theatrical commitment Tuesday from touted Muskogee High teammates Jameel Owens and Stacy McGee, both four-star guys by Rivals Scout. Much further down the road for the Sooners, for the li'l blue chippers currently refusing agents' offers to buy an extra juice box in the elementary cafeteria line: Ohio State and Oklahoma agreed to a home-and-home in 2016-17. Nice match-up, probably, if civilization still exists by then.
 
Morning Coffee Is Enjoying This Offseason

by HornsFan Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 09:44:33 AM EDT

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Morning Major update. Every single Texas news site is reporting the same thing: this deal is done. All the Alabama reports are the same - Applewhite's leaving. With a deal apparently in place, an announcement could come as early as this evening, but more likely tomorrow; the positions may not be filled until after close of business today.
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This is why we hired Muschamp. With the early departure period for juniors now closed, The Oklahoman projects the Sooners' two-deep for 2008, and it's an impressive group - especially on offense. If everyone stays healthy and out of trouble, the Sooners will start five seniors on the offensive line. They lose Malcolm Kelly - a significant loss - but return solid talent at wide receiver. Sam Bradford will try to build on his remarkable freshman season. Jermaine Gresham is a terrifyingly good tight end. And Demarco Murray replaces senior Allen Patrick at tailback - an upgrade.
The talent level of the OU offense in 2008 is what makes both the hiring of Will Muschamp and his ability to develop Muck-Norton-Kindle so critical. With at least three new starters in the secondary, the health and effectiveness of that trio of LBs will be the most important factor in the effectiveness of the Longhorn defense in 2008.
Alas, it is only January. Boo.
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An unusual recruiting season. Even as those most in tune with recruiting amp up the chatter about the class of 2009, there's going to be more news than usual in the final three weeks before signing day for Texas' 2008 class. At this time most years under Mack Brown, Texas fans are mostly disengaged from the frenzy that consumes most schools, as the year's class is filled so early.
Not so this year, as Texas remains in the mix for a hot, out-of-state prospect in RB Darrell Scott and looks to add a couple additional players late in the recruiting season. With Jermichael Finley and Jamaal Charles' decisions to turn pro, additional scholarships have become available. I'll work this weekend on getting a full recruiting board up, with updates on any players in whom Texas seems to be interested.
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Scouting the competition. If you're wondering just how good Texas A&M's hoops team is, tonight presents a good opportunity to take a look. At 15-1, the Aggies are off to the best start in school history, but that record is against a mostly soft schedule. As the DMN reports, the schedule starts to heat up now for A&M with a road game tonight against Texas Tech (ESPN2, 8:30 p.m.) and then another tough away test Saturday at K-State.
 
NFL Damage Report: Big Ten

Posted Jan 16th 2008 9:38AM by Brian Cook
Filed under: Indiana Football, Michigan Football, Michigan State Football, Ohio State Football, Penn State Football, Wisconsin Football, Big 10, Illinois Football, Featured Stories
Tuesday was the deadline for underclassmen to declare their entry into the NFL Draft. Below, a look at the damage done across the Big Ten in the NFL Damage Report. Yes, the NFL is still interested in the occasional Big Ten player.


 <table> <tbody> <tr align="center"> <td colspan="2" bgcolor="#00ccff">Ohio State </td> </tr> <tr> <td>Gone</td> <td>DE Vernon Gholston </td> </tr> <tr> <td>Back</td> <td>WR Brian Robiskie, LB James Laurinaitis, LB Marcus Freeman CB Malcolm Jenkins, OT Alex Boone</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Damage</td> <td>
vernon-gholston.jpg
Gholston will be a major loss. The Detroit junior was a terror all year long -- if OSU hadn't busted three coverages at the wrong time he would have made an enormous impact on the national title game -- and perhaps the best defensive end in the Big Ten since Simeon Rice. OSU has a lot of talent, but guys like Gholston are rare no matter how many hyped recruits you've reeled in.

But the unfortunate reality for Big Ten fans is that OSU got off easier than everyone expected. Jenkins and Laurinaitis have been projected in the top half of the first round by most draft services, but elected to return. A few likely first-day picks in Robiskie, Freeman, and Boone elected to stick around, as well. Despite the loss of Gholston OSU is a big winner here.
</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
<table> <tbody> <tr align="center"> <td colspan="2" bgcolor="#00ccff">Michigan</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Gone</td> <td>WR Mario Manningham, WR Adrian Arrington, QB Ryan Mallett (transfer)
</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Back</td> <td>DT Terrance Taylor, DE Tim Jamison
</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Damage</td> <td>Manningham's departure was assumed from last summer, but Adrian Arrington's dynamite Citrus Bowl might have been the decisive factor in his decision to enter early; both departing leaves Michigan thin and young at wideout. Third WR Greg Mathews comes back, but he seems a steady possession type in the mold of Jason Avant, not a gamebreaker like Manningham was and Arrington was developing into.

Mallett's departure will mean little to Michigan fans if Rich Rodriguez can reel in uberrecruit Terrelle Pryor.

Meanwhile, a couple defensive linemen who could have gone somewhere on the first day return; Michigan brings back every contributor from a pretty decent defensive line from a year ago. They'll have to make their returns count for Michigan's defense to keep what looks like a shaky-at-best offense in games.
</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

<table> <tbody> <tr align="center"> <td colspan="2" bgcolor="#00ccff">Wisconsin</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Gone</td> <td>CB Jack Ikegwuonu
</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Back</td> <td>TE Travis Beckum
</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Damage</td> <td>Ikegwuonu was quietly a superb performer over the past couple years. Wisconsin had the aid of a soft, Ohio State-free schedule and a full blast of the Ryan Mallett Experience against Michigan, but #1 in pass efficiency D is #1 in pass efficiency D, and that was greatly aided by Ikegwuonu's shut-down capabilities. Counterpart Allen Langford, toasted frequently as a sophomore, was capable this year but isn't likely to match Ikegwuonu's contributions in his final year.

Getting Beckum back is a major bonus for new QB Allen Everidge, though. Beckum is a matchup nightmare in pads who should be the slam-dunk Mackey winner unless Everidge is a complete disaster.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
<table> <tbody> <tr align="center"> <td colspan="2" bgcolor="#00ccff">Penn State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Gone</td> <td>CB Justin King
</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Back</td> <td>LB Sean Lee
</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Damage</td> <td>King seemed a superstar in the making after a superb sophomore season and was well on his way to the first round of the draft when he ran into Indiana's James Hardy -- about whom more later -- and got owned. Owned hard. He then failed to live up to admittedly lofty expectations the rest of the year. His departure leaves Penn State's secondary looking shaky. PSU blog Run Up The Score:

Scared for 2008? Totally. Penn State's cornerbacks are now A.J. Wallace and Lydell Sargeant, neither of whom were overly impressive while fighting for the starting spot opposite King. Another possible option is moving Tony Davis back to cornerback, but that just creates another gaping hole elsewhere in the defense. For a secondary that tended to fall apart at critical times in 2007, this is bad news for 2008.


Getting Sean Lee, the latest in PSU's recent string of late-first/early-second OLB/MLB hybrids, back is a nice boost for a defense that looks stout up front. The other side of the ball? Well... I'm sure JayPa will get a guy above the median in passer efficiency one of these years.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
<table> <tbody> <tr align="center"> <td colspan="2" bgcolor="#00ccff">Indiana </td> </tr> <tr> <td>Gone</td> <td>WR James Hardy
</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Back</td> <td>None
</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Damage</td> <td>Weapons like James Hardy just don't come around that often when you're Indiana. Hardy's projected as a second-rounder many places; the last time IU had a second-rounder in the NFL draft it was Antwaan Randle-El six years ago. The damage here is severe, albeit to the Hoosier's chances to repeat as bowl participants and little else.
</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
<table> <tbody> <tr align="center"> <td colspan="2" bgcolor="#00ccff">Michigan State</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Gone</td> <td>WR Devin Thomas
</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Back</td> <td>RB Javon Ringer
</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Damage</td> <td>In the richest tradition of Michigan State wide receivers, Thomas talked big about beating Michigan, did not, and fled to the NFL. He takes with him every ounce of big-play ability MSU got from its passing game a year ago, but there are a couple promising youngsters on the way in rising sophomore Mark Dell and incoming freshman Fred Smith. Either could emerge into a suitable replacement, or MSU could fish out another JUCO. The WRs for erratic (read: bad) QB Brian Hoyer will probably be substandard.

javon-ringer.jpg
However, if MSU was forced to lose one of its offensive stars they would probably have picked Thomas over RB Javon Ringer, a talented runner held back by frequent injury and pounding power back Jehuu Caulcrick the past couple years. His most notable highlight last year was a zig-zagging cutback run against Michigan that spanned 70-some yards vertically and 50 horizontally before Shawn Crable dragged him down. Ringer averaged 5.9 YPC last year in front of a meh offensive line; he's good.

The Spartans moved from John L Smith's spread offense to a traditional pounding ground game under Mark Dantonio; with a full, healthy year from Ringer he will press Chris Wells for All-Big Ten and possibly All-America.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
<table> <tbody> <tr align="center"> <td colspan="2" bgcolor="#00ccff">Illinois </td> </tr> <tr> <td>Gone</td> <td>RB Rashard Mendenhall
</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Back</td> <td>None
</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Damage</td> <td>Mendenhall will vie with Gholston for the title of the Big Ten's single most damaging departure. While Illinois figures to fill the gap with promising JUCO transfer Daniel Dufrene, -- get busy livin', kid -- Dufrene can't match Mendenhall's NFL combination of speed, power, and moves. For my money, he was the top running back in the Big Ten a year ago, better than Ringer or Hart or Wells, and Illinois will miss him dearly.

The offensive burden now falls more heavily upon junior-to-be Juice Williams, who may have improved radically as a sophomore but mostly because there was nowhere to go but up. </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

No (early) departures: Northwestern, Minnesota, Iowa, Purdue.

The Upshot: Ohio State's claim as the Big Ten frontrunner just gets stronger.
 
Big East Auditing: Crystal Ball, Revisited
By SMQ
Posted on Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 05:49:59 PM EDT


Some things we thought we knew about the Big East, it turns out, we really did know - West Virginia good, Syracuse bad - but largely, events conspired in typical fashion to cast the summer scribes as a lot of fools. From the preseason consensus of 18 publications at Stassen.com, from most underrated to most overrated:

<table cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3"> <caption align="top">Big East Preseason Consensus vs. Eventual Reality</caption> <tbody><tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(164, 74, 74) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="left">
</td> <td align="center">Preseason</td> <td align="center">Actual Finish</td> <td align="center">+/-</td> <td align="center">Rightest</td> <td align="center">Wrongest</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Connecticut</td> <td align="center">7th</td> <td align="center">T-1st (5-2)</td> <td align="left">+ 6</td> <td align="left">Gold Sheet (5th)</td> <td align="left">Three 8th Place Picks</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">Cincinnati</td> <td align="center">6th</td> <td align="center">T-3rd (4-3)</td> <td align="left">+ 3</td> <td align="left">Nine 5th Place Picks</td> <td align="left">Gold Sheet (7th)</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">South Florida</td> <td align="center">4th</td> <td align="center">T-3rd (4-3)</td> <td align="left">+ 1</td> <td align="left">P.Steele, J.Feist (3rd)</td> <td align="left">SureFire, CFN (5th)</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">Pittsburgh</td> <td align="center">5th</td> <td align="center">T-5th (3-4)</td> <td align="left">-</td> <td align="left">Seven 5th Place Votes</td> <td align="left">CFN(4th)</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Syracuse</td> <td align="center">8th</td> <td align="center">8th (1-6)</td> <td align="left">-</td> <td align="left">Thirteen 8th Place Picks</td> <td align="left">Five 7th Place Picks</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">West Virginia</td> <td align="center">1st</td> <td align="center">T-1st (5-2)</td> <td align="left">-</td> <td align="left">Sixteen 1st Place Picks</td> <td align="left">J. Feist, SportsForm (2nd)</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Rutgers</td> <td align="center">3rd</td> <td align="center">T-5th (3-4)</td> <td align="left">-2</td> <td align="left">P.Steele, J.Feist (4th)</td> <td align="left">Athlon, USAT (2nd)</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">Louisville</td> <td align="center">2nd</td> <td align="center">T-5th (3-4)</td> <td align="left">-3</td> <td align="left">Athlon, USAT (3rd)</td> <td align="left">Six 1st Place Picks</td> </tr> </tbody></table> I like that even the teams the prognosticenti pegged exactly right in the summer were party to a pair of the most shocking outcomes in a season defined mainly by shocking outcomes across the country. Anyone could predict West Virginia would dominate the league, Pittsburgh would prove mediocre and Syracuse would be alone again, naturally, in the cellar, and so they did. More challenging would have been the forecaster able to peg the Orange's upset at Louisville in September, which briefly stood (prior to Stanford's win over USC) as the greatest point-spread upset in history, or Pittsburgh's sabotaging the Mountaineers' mythical championship destiny in Morgantown to reach its expected potential.
Speaking of which, my early August assessment of the showdown of the year nationally, Louisville at West Virginia:
  • Therefore, much as I like Rutgers, it's impossible to forecast the Big East without making a head-to-head decision between West Virginia and Louisville, a game that this year will match LSU-Florida, Oklahoma-Texas and Michigan-Wisconsin for intrigue and probably surpass all of them for direct impact on the mythical championship. It may be as close as we come to a 1-2 matchup in the regular season, and if you asked me today to sacrifice my firstborn to the gods for any game this fall, West Virginia-Louisville is probably my pick.
    - - -
Next to the dramatic collision of mettle that was LSU-Florida in early October, that edict would have made me one sad, infanticidal viewer - Louisville limped in at 5-4 with four losses in its last six games and a defense so depleted and shaken I didn't even deem the mismatch worth watching. Despite the close finish (Pat White bolted for the winning touchdown from 50 yards out with a few seconds to play), the only impact the game had was to keep West Virginia's conference and national ambitions intact. I will say I was gloriously right in July about my opinion that South Florida and Cincinnati looked like equals despite the Bulls' appearance in several top 25 polls and the unanimous opinion in the magazines that USF would finish higher in the conference:
  • I'm not trying to suggest the Bearcats are better than South Florida, though they did wallop the Bulls 23-6 last year in Cincinnati, or that they'll necessarily finish ahead of USF or even beat them again in Tampa in November. In a league this jammed from the top down, somebody has to finish fifth, or, with Pittsburgh in the mix, sixth, and it could easily be Cincinnati. The USF love would make more sense if it had some history behind it. But both Cincy and USF are tradition-poor C-USA refugees from large metro areas with a similar track record of fringe success for most of this decade. Relative to the Big East's Big Three last year, both stunned a cruising giant - South Florida ostentatiously sunk West Virginia's BCS ship, a week after Cincinnati buried Rutgers' undefeated season beneath a four-touchdown A-bomb - and came close against another (USF against Rutgers, a two-point home loss, and UC in a six-point defeat at Louisville). Both teams finished strong in November and won never-before-seen December bowl games in far-away places like Toronto and Birmingham. If South Florida had played Ohio State and Virginia Tech in back-to-back weeks in September, as the Bearcats did, instead of Florida International and Central Florida, the overall records would be the same, too. So why such unanimity, and such large disparities between the projected fates of two teams that look so equal? Why zero buzz about the Bearcats' returning talent?
    - - -
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Who loved ya, baby, to a cautiously reasonable extent?
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Cincinnati beat USF on the road, won ten games for the first time since 1951 and finished - ahem - in a tie with the Bulls behind West Virginia and UConn, which was significantly more equal than even I was expecting. By upsetting Auburn and West Virginia early, South Florida did defy my prediction that it would only match 2006's eight-win breakthrough, not exceed it, but only by a game. In the end, USF and Cincy were only a few spots away from one another in my final poll or any of the mainstream versions, all of which (except mine) had the Bearcats in front. Re: Rutgers, and my aforementioned expectations for RU, I found the Knights to be somewhat flukey opportunists in their run to eleven wins in 2006, but guessed they'd roughly equal that success, with or without the breaks, because of some core strengths and key improvements:
  • In Rutgers' case, I think the Kinghts are going to be very good again because they've shown they can run consistently and rush the passer and Mike Teel demonstrated tangible improvement once a viable receiving threat (Kenny Britt) entered the lineup over the second half of the season. They're good, and shouldn't have to overcome down-to-down disadvantages by unlikely means.
    - - -
Final tally: 8-5, three full games worse than the previous near-dream season. Teal threw for far more yards but didn't improve his efficiency against good teams and the run defense took a nosedive, taking the Knights' encore shot at the elite with it. And UConn, well, nobody was right about UConn, or reasonably could have been. Next year, despite the Huskies' skin-of-our-teeth routine, will be a different story.
 
MARKUS MANSON OUT AT FLORIDA

An organizational allergy to running backs will do this: Gator running back Markus Manson is, according to one of those great, great sources you can’t mention, is transferring from Florida. Manson is a junior who, mired in the logjam at running back in ‘06 and then mired in the refusal to actually play a running back in ‘07, made an attempt to switch to corner when it became clear he would not see time in the offensive backfield. That didn’t exactly work out, so he’s gone to Valdosta State–again, according to our sources.
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Manson: gone.
 
SHORT ATTENTION SPAN THEATER: BIG TEN RECRUITING

Brian from MGoBlog has your cheat sheet for Big Ten recruiting. This interview does feature Brian doing his best junior Steele act, downloading a precis of the Big Ten recruiting scene with almost frightening fluidity.
Listen to the whole thing, or do what we know you will do anyway and peep the cheat sheet:
–Iowa is doing very poorly.
–Ohio State is replacing gears in the machine as usual.
–Minnesota actually is recruiting talent.
–Illinois is again building a solid class based on coach [NAME REDACTED] and his hypnotic glare.
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IM-HO-TEP! IM-HO-TEP!
–Penn State still cannot recruit offensive talent.
–Terrelle Pryor and his whereabouts remain THE dramarama of the season.
<iframe src="http://www.hipcast.com/playweb?audioid=P3b969ead79ecf09091a2961721703149Zlp%2FS1REYmdy&buffer=5&shape=6&fc=FFFFFF&pc=CCFF33&kc=FFCC33&bc=FFFFFF&brand=1&player=ap21" frameborder="0" height="20" scrolling="no" width="246"> </iframe>
MP3 File
 
Thursday Hub Shreds Not, Fights Not, Stays On Its Side of Town
By SMQ
Posted on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 09:34:05 AM EDT


• This Day In Coach-Swapping. "Sources close to the situation," including Dave Wannstedt, told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that Pitt defensive coordinator Paul Rhoads, his stock way, way up after the lame duck Panthers became the first team to hold West Virginia to single digits since 2004 and finished fifth nationally in total defense, will accept Tommy Tuberville's offer to replace Texas-bound Will Muschamp at Auburn. The Tigers are apparently not concerned that Rhoads' previous two attempts to stop the Mountaineers were grisly disasters, or that the Panthers allowed just shy of 500 yards to Navy last October. Pitt's total defense rankings under Rhoads since 2000, his first year: 29th, 7th, 12th, 79th, 73rd, 31st, 87th, 5th. Make of that yo-yo'ing what you will.

Hugh_Nall__AU_OL_Coach__giving_Tommy_Tuberville__AU_HC__a_piggy_back_ride_after_the_2007_Iron_Bowl.JPG

Hugh Nall's advice to Paul Rhoads: Bring a back brace.
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Elsewhere in coach-swapping: As expected, Major Applewhite has formally accepted the position of running backs coach and assistant head coach at the alma mater ... Cast off UCLA offensive coordinator Jay Norvell is expected to be back at Oklahoma as receivers coach and co-offensive coordinator by the end of the week ... Kansas denied a report its defensive coordinator, Bill Young, has accepted the same position with Miami ... Tennessee is close to promoting Jason Michael, merely an assistant tight ends coach with the New York Jets, to head tight ends coach in Knoxville ... Eerie calm today from L.A., where we await word on Pete Carroll's interest in the NFL (or vice versa) and UCLA's bid to lure Norm Chow as its offensive coordinator, but Rick Neuheisel's making ripples with the old college try in his first month on the job, on display in his bid for fellow LA alum turned SC assistant Ken Norton Jr.:
  • Neuheisel had no appropriate vacancies, no big money packages, nothing to offer but himself, yet he was going to stand chin-to-chin with Carroll and proposition Norton anyway? Your UCLA family wants you to come home!
    Yeah, Neuheisel tried it. And, officially, it didn't work. But unofficially, it couldn't have worked better.
    - - -
For the intensely gossipy nature of all this speculation, this line by esteemed L.A. Times columnist Bill Plaschke couldn't have worked better: "When reached by phone, Neuheisel would not comment on Chow, but you know he probably called him that night." Like, I know he totally did! • We Hardly Knew Ye: Patrick Chung. The Oregon safety has okay speed, but he's only about 5-11, 210 pounds, only 20 years old, and may not be drafted at all. Of course Patrick Chung thinks it's "definitely the right decision" to throw his name into the draft pool with a year of eligibility remaining. He has finished among the top three Duck tacklers all three years in Eugene, though, so, I dunno. Maybe he knows something the scouts don't, or maybe he's just expected big residuals from an increasingly desperate Chris Berman for the opportunity to scream "Patrick `Every Wang' Chung Tonight!" during the preseason. It's a racket.

spt_23_oher_pic_11-23-2006_AA93IIP.jpg

Oher blindsides draft scouts.
- - -

• Not So Fast, My Friend! Man-mountain Michael Oher, perhaps anxious for the "experience" of a year under Houston Nutt, retracted his "goin' pro" announcement Wednesday and will return to Ole Miss for his senior year. Oher's already a quasi-celebrity, thanks to his central role in bestseller and soon-to-be feature film Blindside, a two-time all-SEC pick, on track to earn a degree after a well-chronicled childhood in poverty and is unlikely to contract some virulent strain of shrinking disease during the next year. So why not enjoy laid-back Oxford one more time and come out a certain first-rounder on the other end? • All recruiting eyes this weekend will be on Terrelle Pryor's visit to Ann Arbor, but it should be an interesting weekend in Gainesville, where the Gators hope to foster a few defections. One will be Jacksonville running back Jamie Harper, a serious need after the grade-related de-commit of Georgia RB Franklin Green; Harper is technically uncommitted but visited Clemson last week and is supposedly favoring the Tigers. The Gators will also be hosting three Alabama stars, including heavily panted-over receiver Julio Jones, who everybody has long guessed will wind up at Alabama, and five-star athlete Burton Scott, who has committed and repeatedly reaffirmed his commitment to `Bama and who, according to the Gainesville Sun's Robbie Andreu, might be as likely to act as a double agent this weekend in the name of keeping Jones and linebacker/end William Green from getting too carried away with Florida.
• Kickoff Anxiety, Revisited. Coaches - many of whom were skeptical about the rule change moving kickoffs from the 35 to the 35 before the season - offered "anecdotal evidence" injuries were up due to fewer touchbacks, so the Athletic Directors Association will conduct a study to gauge the data. Anything to keep neurotic coaches from pulling their hair out over the idea of kickoff team scrubs having to make an open field tackle, though with no baseline data for comparison from previous seasons, there's not much chance the appalling piles of mangled bodies we saw last year will decrease.
• Headline of the day. Courtesy the Tampa Tribune:
Good to know he had his head in the right place.
prison_bars.jpg


The Rap Sheet
Crimes, misdemeanors and eligibility-crippling issues legal, academic, institutional and otherwise.
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This paper represents all the goodwill I ever had in my home state. Okay, now watch this...
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Transferred, to federal court, West Virginia's suit against Rich Rodriguez to recoup the $4 million buyout he took to Michigan, a bureaucratic move necessitated by the coach's move north before the suit was filed. Courts, millions of dollars, whatever. In the meantime, the ShredGate/EnRod story grabbing all the headlines - a perfect, perfect story of petty vengeance and half-baked allegation that, along with the brewing storm of in-your-face enthusiasm in Los Angeles, is a promising early sign of an eventful, contentious offseason - appears to be dissipating. Alas, it was inevitable, but even as some Michigan papers call on Rodriguez to apologize for shredding papers of unknown content or importance before his hasty departure from Morgantown, others are pointing out that WVU players' academic files are `secure' (thank god!) and the West Virginia reporter that borke the story goes on record to say, "I've known Rich for a long time and I don't think that there's anything in those files that incriminates anyone in any way regarding anything." Rodriguez may have spent "hours upon hours" shredding paper of some nature, and maybe we'll know at some point what was on that paper and maybe we won't. It is certain that it will be quickly forgotten until West Virginia and Michigan are matched in a bowl game or the NCAA basketball tournament and old lightbulbs flicker on in columnists' heads. Both sides should be more concerned with the disputed $4 million.
Ordered, to stand trial, two Penn State players accused of breaking a man's face in a fight last October. Felony assault charges against defensive tackle Chris Baker and backup linebacker Navorro Bowman were dropped in early December (they still faced misdemeanor simple assault, harassment and disorderly conduct), but major charges against the pair were re-filed earlier this week on complaints of "legal errors" leading to the dismissal in the preliminary trial and a new trial was ordered Wednesday after four witnesses said they saw Baker and Bowman "kicking and stomping a man as he lay on the ground" on Oct. 7. Backup cornerback Knowledge Timmons still faces misdemeanor charges from the same fight.
If prosecutors push it, Baker could be denied bail because he also faces trial this month on the well-publicized apartment brawl last April - brawls are always better-publicized when not occurring between the games that consume our attention - though the original cascade of charges in that case was slowly reduced to a trickle over the summer. Baker, Bowman and Timmons were all held out of the season finale against Michigan State and the Alamo Bowl, where Joe Paterno weighed in on his charges' feisty streak: ""They're kids. It was a fight. Weren't you ever in a fight when you were a kid? Come on."
I think I was in a fake wrestling match that got pretty seriously heated when I was about six and tried to karate kick a kid during recess in fourth grade, but nothing beyond that; certainly nothing resembling separate incidents in which I was accused of storming a private apartment party to defend my teammate's barely-challenged honor and/or kicking and stomping a man as he lay on the ground after I started college. But I see where Paterno is coming from. I'm not sure he can actually distinguish between the different incidents when asked by a reporter with big, delicious, distracting brains, but I see.
 
Chung to return for senior season

Posted: Thursday January 17, 2008 7:17PM; Updated: Thursday January 17, 2008 7:17PM

EUGENE, Ore. (AP) -- Junior rover Patrick Chung, the University of Oregon's leading tackler last season, has opted against this year's NFL draft and will finish his senior year in Eugene.
Chung had filed paperwork this week with the NFL as a precautionary measure and had until Friday to withdraw.
"I love our fans, I love our coaches, and I love the atmosphere here," Chung said. "How could I leave? Once I have earned my degree, I will pursue my dream of playing in the NFL."
Chung would have become the second UO underclassman from the 2007 squad to enter the NFL draft. Teammate Jonathan Stewart declared last week.
Chung has started in all 38 games Oregon has played since 2005.
Oregon begins spring practice April 2.
 
Big 12 Auditing: Crystal Ball, Revisited
By SMQ
Posted on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 09:07:30 PM EDT


Nebraksa on the one hand and Kansas on the other wrecked everyone's guesses in the Big 12 North, but even considering that transposition, I think the ledger in forecasting the conference was particularly bad. From the preseason consensus of 18 publications at Stassen.com, from most underrated to most overrated:

<table cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3"> <caption align="top">Big 12 Preseason Consensus vs. Eventual Reality</caption> <tbody><tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(164, 74, 74) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>
</td> <td align="center">Preseason</td> <td align="center">Actual Finish</td> <td align="center">+/-</td> <td align="center">Rightest</td> <td align="center">Wrongest</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kansas</td> <td>4th North</td> <td>T-1st N. (7-1)</td> <td>+ 3</td> <td>J. Feist (3rd)</td> <td>SureFire (6th)</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Colorado</td> <td>5th North</td> <td>3rd N. (4-4)</td> <td>+ 2</td> <td>SCS, SureFire (3rd)</td> <td>SportsForm (6th)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Texas Tech</td> <td>5th South</td> <td>T-3rd S. (4-4)</td> <td>+ 2</td> <td>TSN, SportsForm (3rd)</td> <td>Thirteen 5th Place Picks</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Missouri</td> <td>2nd North</td> <td>T-1st N. (7-1)</td> <td>+ 1</td> <td>Five 1st Place Picks</td> <td>SureFire (T-3rd)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oklahoma</td> <td>2nd South</td> <td>1st S. (6-2)</td> <td>+ 1</td> <td>Five 1st Place Picks</td> <td>SureFire (T-3rd)</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Okla. State</td> <td>4th South</td> <td>T-3rd S. (4-4)</td> <td>+ 1</td> <td>SureFire (T-3rd)</td> <td>TSN (5th)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Baylor</td> <td>6th South</td> <td>6th S. (0-8)</td> <td>-</td> <td>All</td> <td>None</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Iowa State</td> <td>6th North</td> <td>6th N. (2-6)</td> <td>-</td> <td>All</td> <td>None</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Texas A&M</td> <td>3rd South</td> <td>T-3rd S. (4-4)</td> <td>-</td> <td>Eight 3rd Place Picks</td> <td>SureFire (2nd)</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Kansas State</td> <td>3rd North</td> <td>4th N. (3-5)</td> <td>-1</td> <td>SCS (T-4th)</td> <td>SureFire (2nd)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Texas</td> <td>1st South</td> <td>2nd S. (5-3)</td> <td>-1</td> <td>Four 2nd Place Picks</td> <td>GoldSheet (3rd)</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Nebraska</td> <td>1st North</td> <td>5th N. (2-6)</td> <td>-4</td> <td>Five 2nd Place Picks</td> <td>Thirteen 1st Place Picks</td> </tr> </tbody></table> Nebraska and its atrocious defense bit the dust in historically bad fashion, but the biggest loser in the Big 12 in retrospect was SureFire Scouting, the only mainstream outlet that picked Texas A&M or Kansas State second in their respective divisions, much less both, the only mainstream outlet that had either of the eventual division representatives in the conference championship game in a tie for third, much less both, and, worst of all, the only mainstream outlet that picked eventual Orange Bowl winner Kansas last in the North, behind Iowa State. I mean, what kind of frothing idiot do you have to be to pick a sleeper off a 6-6 season and facing a favorable schedule behind a team enduring a coaching transition after going 3-9? Seriously, you have to have really, uh, really lost...your...umm...

  • Snapshot_2008_01_17_19_17_01.tiff
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    6. Kansas

    - - -
Right, about that. Even while predicting KU last in the division, I did recognize the Jayhawks did not look like a cellar-dwelling outfit:
  • I wish to stress at this point the extreme parity in the division behind Nebraska, especially in positions (as assigned by me, that is, in this specific post) three through six. There are no surprises. I go out of my way to say that because Kansas doesn't really deserve this when, after a solid decade of woe, it's actually starting the season at the point - off two straight years at/slightly above .500 - the teams I have immediately in front of it are trying to claw their way back to. KU has the coaching stability Iowa State does lacks, and unlike Colorado goes into the fall settled at quarterback. We're told ad nauseum by the summer magazines and whatever outlet has the chance that alliteratively-named cornerback Aqib Talib is one of the best defensive players in the country.
    - - -
The wrongest thing in that paragraph is the notion of Nebraska as the pacesetter (the "dead obvious frontrunner," to put it precisely from the top of the same set of predictions), which everyone got wrong, and my sentiment about Kansas and trepidation to drop it to the point I did coming into the year really only makes me about KU as wrong as everyone else. Right? Of course.
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Damn, coach, I know, but see...it was July, and...
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Ahem. I was only a little less wrong about Kansas State overall - again, like everybody else - but had to throw in this specific line of doubt re: the Wildcats (following a recounting of KSU's six double-digit losses in 2006, one of them to Baylor) to ensure maximum foolishness:
  • That can be offset to an extent by the close wins against Oklahoma State and Texas, but though I don't have much comment on the first one (OSU, despite the understandable gushing over its offense, was still just a 6-6 team in the regular season, after all), I am positive having watched the game, looked at the numbers and judged the wild circumstances (untimely fumbles, trick plays, a blocked punt, injured quarterback, etc.) that the UT win is one of the genuine flukes of the decade, and given KSU's sorry record against other winners, nothing like it is on the horizon.
    - - -
Of course: KSU 41, Texas 21. I thought Sam Bradford would suck, Missouri didn't have the defense to challenge Nebraska for first place in the North and Texas would play for the mythical championship. In short, I did an atrocious job of forecasting the Big 12. In fact, there are only two teams I placed correctly: Baylor, which was obvious, and Oklahoma State, which was less obvious. The best I can say of my Big 12 South predictions is that I was right about Texas A&M re: OSU and Texas Tech - the Aggies were overwhelmingly predicted in front of both, but I dropped A&M to fifth with the caveat all three were likely to be in a dead, indecipherable heat in the South. All three finished 4-4 and beat one another, round-robin style (A&M > OSU > Tech > A&M). After that, I hope you hung on to your money.
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The top 25 non-conference matchups of 2008

An early look at next season's likely pulse-pounders

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</td><td>By John Walters
NBCSports.com
Read John's blog</td> </tr></tbody></table> Updated: Jan16, 2008, 05:59 PM EST <!-- begin right floating content --> <table> </table>
<!-- end right floating content --> Nothing turns my attention toward the next college football season quite as swiftly as the non-conference schedule pairings. That, and determining if the story line in South Bend will be "Notre Shame", "Wake Up The Echoes" or "Overrated" (in '08 it will be the middle stage, by the way).
Some non-conference opponents meet every year (Florida State-Florida) or nearly every year (Notre Dame-Michigan). What intrigues me, in January at least, are the prospects of those blind-date pairings that may either provide thrilling theater (Texas-Ohio State, '05) or be simply horrible ideas (Jimmy Fallon and Queen Latifah in Taxi comes to mind … or Eddie Murphy in any film also starring Eddie Murphy).
And thus I've spent the past day foraging next season's 25 most intriguing intersectional games. Match-ups that are rarities ... the kind that tend to cause a spike in the college football fan's pulse otherwise achievable only when the words "Now let's go down to Erin Andrews" are heard.
By the way, there's a 26th games out there somewhere. At the moment defending national champ LSU has an open date and a non-conference schedule that includes North Texas, Troy and Tulane. All are visiting Baton Rouge. We deserve better, and chances are there's an ESPN executive in Bristol, Conn., who agrees with us. And is working hard to find an opponent for Les Miles' Tigers on Sept. 13, Oct. 6 or Nov. 15. Or, even better, why not "persuade" Miami of Ohio and Troy, the respective opponents of Michigan and LSU on Sept. 6, to instead play each other?
LSU-Michigan from the Big House on the season's second Saturday? I'd watch. Wouldn't you?

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1. Georgia at Arizona State -- Sept. 20
Think -- think! -- of the last time the Bulldogs traveled west of the Central Time Zone. Do you remember? I don't, because they last did so six years prior to my existence. Georgia lost 10-3 at Southern Cal on Oct. 7, 1960. The Dawgs picked an excellent time to play a Musberger-worthy contest, as Mark Richt's club will be a preseason No. 1 in many mags. Knowshon Moreno, only a sophomore, is the goods. Rudy Carpenter returns at QB for the Sun Devils, Pac-10 runners-up in '07.
2. Ohio State at Southern Cal -- Sept. 13
Here's an early-season battle between a pair of perennial top 5's, one of whom has played in the national championship game five of the past six seasons. Buckeye All-American defensive end Vernon Gholston has declared for the NFL draft, but All-American linebacker mate James Laurinaitis will return. So will Alex Boone, all 6-8, 325 of him, at offensive tackle for the Buckeyes. The Trojans have not lost a home game in September since 2001, Pete Carroll's first season there.
3. Illinois vs. Missouri (in St. Louis) -- Aug. 30
They've been playing this gateway gridiron grudge match for a few years now, but this game has never been sexier. Heisman invitee Chase Daniel, tight end Chase Coffman and super-soph Jeremy Maclin (plus our favorite-named defensive end, Stryker Sulak) return for the Tigers, while the Illini have a splendid soph of their own in Arrelious Benn.
4. Auburn at West Virginia -- Sept. 6
Remember that season when Auburn had a stifling defense, a forgettable quarterback and no player that anyone out of range of Paul Finebaum's radio show could name? Exactly. Kodi Burns (or perhaps Chris Todd) is the signal-caller in-waiting for the Tigers but the defense, led by Antonio Coleman, will give them at least a shot in the SEC West. Steve Slaton is off to the NFL, but Noel Devine's intervention in the backfield in Morgantown may have triggered it. Can Pat White finally, at the very least, be invited to the Heisman ceremony?
5) Alabama vs. Clemson (in Atlanta) -- Aug. 30
Crimson, meet Clemson. Alabama will have three Tigers to tame in '08 (SEC West foes Auburn and LSU being the other two). Nick Saban's problem with this trio of Tigers is that, "They're grrrreat!" The kitties' Cullen Harper had a 27 to 6 TD/INT ratio in '07 and returns all of his wideouts plus running back C.J. Spiller. The Tide and these Tigers last met in 1975, when Bear Bryant's bunch won 56-0.
6. Tennessee at UCLA -- Sept. 6
Rick Neuheisel's long and winding road back to his alma mater--he led the Bruins to a Rose Bowl win in '84 as a walk-on quarterback--begins with the Vols. Phil Fulmer's team opened '07 in California, too, but that was against a far more talented Cal team. With few exceptions (such as quarterback, kicker and tight end), the Bruins are starting from scratch.
7. Arkansas at Texas -- Sept. 13
Hogs-Horns. This good ol'-fashioned Southwest Conference dust-up would be far better if the Hogs' Darren McFadden and Felix Jones and the Horns' Jamaal Charles had not declared early for the draft (a frequent sentiment in this column, as by now you've realized). Colt McCoy, tossing to seniors Quan Cosby and Jordan Shipley (who is not a character out of The Great Gatsby), is a legitimate Heisman candidate for the burnt orange.
8. Oklahoma at Washington -- Sept. 20
Put the Fiesta Bowl out of your mind. The Sooners are loaded, with all five offensive line starters, all seniors, returning. That includes Brandon Walker and Branndon Braxton, but not Brandon Irons (who does not exist, but what a great name for a Big 12 player that would be, no?). Sam Bradford (OU) and Jake Locker (U-Dub), both redshirt sophs, are outstanding QBs. Oklahoma represents U-Dub's third non-conference foe in the past two seasons who appeared in a BCS bowl the year before -- in case anyone thought Ty Willingham had it easy.
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9. Boise State at Oregon -- Aug. 30
Ian Johnson is still a Bronco. Really. He's 44 now and has two grandkids with Chrissy Popadics, but he's still a Bronco. Boise State loses its defensive heart in safety Marty Tadman (who scored a touchdown in each of his last two bowl games) and mammoth offensive tackle Ryan Clady declared early for the draft. Duck tailback Jonathan Stewart will likely use his 2007 Sun Bowl performance (253 yards rushing) to declare as well, though he has not yet. For all the success the Broncos have had this decade, they are 0-4 in visits to Pac-10 schools.
10. Virginia Tech at Nebraska -- Sept. 27
New Husker head coach Bo Pelini saw the Hokies just last season, when he was LSU's defensive coordinator. The Bayou Bengals blasted the Hokies 48-7. Then again, it helps having Glenn Dorsey, Ali Highsmith and Craig Steltz on your defense. Frank Beamer has two starting quarterbacks but no starting cornerbacks, as both Brandon Flowers and Victor Harris are off to the NFL after their junior seasons.
11. Miami at Florida -- Sept. 6
Kudos to both Sunshine State schools for scheduling this one. "The U" ended '07 with four consecutive losses, including a shameful 48-0 shutout in their final bow at the O.B. Randy Shannon's second season in Coral Gables will be better, but you won't know it from this arduous afternoon in Gainesville. Defensive ends Calais Campbell (Miami) and Derrick Harvey (UF) both have bolted after their junior years for the NFL.
12. Oregon State at Penn State -- Sept. 6
The Beavers visit Beaver Stadium. So who has the home-field advantage? The team whose coach has a statue of himself just outside the stadium, that's who. The Nittany Lions lose Dan Connor but still may have the Big Ten best non-Laurinaitis linebacker in Sean Lee. Daryll Clark, a first-year starter at QB as a senior in Happy Valley, will remind Nittany fans of former dual-threat Michael Robinson.
13. Southern Cal at Virginia -- Aug. 30
God bless Pete Carroll (even if he is in Atlanta by this point) or at least Trojan A.D. Mike Garrett. If every school scheduled out-of-conference as rigorously as the Trojans do, we'd have fewer bowl game mismatches. Troy is loaded, again, while the Cavaliers set an NCAA record in '07 with five wins by two or fewer points. Defensive end Chris Long will be long gone.
14. Brigham Young at Washington -- Sept. 6
It's not easy to do--nor is it advisable -- but by playing the Cougars the Huskies will have faced the team with the nation's longest win streak three times in their past 14 games. U-Dub ended Boise State's 14-game win streak last September, then became the last of Hawaii's 13 consecutive victims on December 1. Now BYU, which ended '07 with ten wins in a row, visits Seattle. The QB matchup of Jake Locker vs. Max Hall will be special.
15. Utah at Michigan -- Aug. 30
Would the last Wolverine offensive skill position player to leave please shut out the light? The hiring of Rich Rodrizguez has turned Ann Arbor into Ann Onymous, as mass defections and graduation have riddled the offensive depth chart. New coach Rich Rodriguez has probably uttered--but not texted--the words "Pat White" to high school phenom Terrelle Pryor 500 times in the past week. Appalachian State redux? Unlikely.
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16. Kansas at South Florida
The Jayhawks gain much recruiting momentum with their Orange Bowl win over Virginia Tech, while the Bulls looked abominable (Abomina-Bulls) in the Sun Bowl. Will Todd Reesing, KU's undersized, overachieving QB, out-duel USF's Matt Grothe?
17. Mississippi State at Georgia Tech -- Sept. 20
That team from Athens is not the only Bulldog squad Paul Johnson need worry about in his first season in Atlanta. Johnson, who brought great success to Navy, returns to his Peachtree state roots. Sly Croom's MSU squad is coming off its most successful season in quite some time and, though odds of the Bulldogs returning to Atlanta in December are long, why not dream?
18. Notre Dame at Washington -- Oct. 25
The Irish could be -- don't laugh, Mark May -- 6-0 and coming off a bye week by the time they visit Seattle. Look at their first six opponents: Michigan and Purdue are in down years while San Diego State, Stanford and North Carolina are beatable. A visit to East Lansing, where Notre Dame has won its last three, poses the greatest threat. The Ignominious Irish of '07 are much growed up and eager for payback. Freshman wideout Michael Floyd could be this year's Arrelious Benn.
19. Miami at Texas A&M -- Sept. 20
Upending the Aggies was Miami's '07 highlight. The Aggies, under new coach Mike Sherman, return three-year starters Stephen McGee at quarterback and Jorvorskie "HOV" Lane at halfback. Expect a fired-up 12th Man in College Station.
20. West Virginia at Colorado -- Sept. 27
For one day only, call them the Rocky Mountaineers. Pat White and Noel Devine could turn Folsom Field into their own personal track meet. Dan Hawkins' defense will be severely tested.
21. Hawaii at Florida -- Aug. 30
The Warriors, who ended the 2006 calendar year with the nation's longest winning streak (13 games), will lose their second straight and again to an SEC opponent. Gone are coach June Jones and Heisman third-place finisher Colt Brennan as well as all three wideouts (juniors Davone Bess and Ryan Grice-Mullen declared early for the NFL draft). The Gators, meanwhile, will be a preseason No. 1 in some mags, and welcome Southern Cal transfer Emmanuel Moody at tailback.<
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22. South Florida at Central Florida -- Sept. 6
The Golden Knights and Kevin Smith were held without a touchdown in a 10-3 Liberty Bowl loss to Mississippi State 10-3. Afterward Smith, the nation's leading rusher, said that everyone back in Orlando was disappointed, even "the sheriff's department". How much more disappointed are they now that Smith has opted to forgo his senior season -- and a shot at the NCAA career rushing yardage record--in favor of the NFL draft? USF defensive end George Selvie, who finished second in the nation in sacks with 14.5 in '07, is already haunting George O'Leary's dreams.
23. Penn State at Syracuse -- Sept. 13
Is it too late for the Nittany Lions to join the Big East (ask Miami prez Donna Shalala; it's never too late to switch conferences)? The Big Ten does not need 11 schools -- as long as it's not going to have 12 -- while Penn State is so much more geographically suited for annual bouts with the 'Cuse, Pittsburgh, West Virginia and Rutgers (all within a four-hour drive of nearly impossible to reach Happy Valley).
24. Colorado at Florida State -- Sept. 20
An early-season test for the Seminoles, but the good news is that it cannot be taken on-line. Bobby Bowden's bunch has been a repository of bad news of late, from the three dozen players ruled ineligible for the recent bowl loss to Kentucky to backup QB Xavier Lee, who holds the Florida prep records for passing TDs and yardage, leaving school. The Buffs will miss graduating linebacker Jordon Dizon, the nation's leading tackler, but defensive tackle George Hypolite is a stud.
25. Wisconsin at Fresno State -- Sept. 13
Pat Hill, the Bulldog coach, is a sportswriter's dream with the things he says. Brett Bielema, the Badger coach, is a sportswriter's dream with the things he does. This match-up falls short of dreamy, but bully for the Badgers for scheduling a game that poses so much risk. The Madison men's next three opponents after Fresno? Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State.
And one non-intriguing contest ...
Northwestern at Duke -- Sept. 6
Had Northwestern not lost to the Blue Devils at home last season, and assuming the rest of the year had played out the same, Duke would be entering 2008 with a 32-game losing streak. The longest losing streak in I-A history, 34 games, belongs to the Wildcats--and these two meet in Duke's second game of the season.
In short Northwestern, by beating Duke last September and on this day, might have had the Blue Devils join them in ownership of that longest losing streak record. Maybe that's why Duke scheduled James Madison for the week before this.
David Cutcliffe, an excellent and veteran offensive intellect, is the new head coach in Durham.
 
Friday Hub Is Not For Sale...Unless You Can Keep a Secret
By SMQ
Posted on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 08:46:05 AM EDT


• Who Is Lloyd Lake? The strengthening case against Reggie Bush is based on the testimony of an ex-felon, Lloyd Lake, who appears for all the world in the story as an opportunistic con man whose fledgling, one-man sports agency business ultimately couldn't even land that one man. So where Bush was able to pay for the silence of alleged co-conspirators Michael Michaels and LaMar Griffin, Lake is going for broke - first in crucial testimony to the NCAA in November, as a well-compensated source in Don Yaeger's damaging exposé and in a lengthy talk with USA Today, which tried to explain why this shady character might be believable:

  • Why is Lake -- described by his attorney as having been "affiliated" with the Emerald Hills Blood Gang, who has been arrested seven times, spent several years in jail and is characterized as a career offender in a U.S. District Court Southern District of California presentence report that he gave the book's authors and is detailed in the book -- speaking out now? He said he was tired of being accused of extortion, as he was by Bush's lawyer, David Cornwell. "A lot of people asking me, 'Man, why are you trying to extort Reggie Bush?' " Lake says. "In looking at my past, you can believe it. So my attorney told me, 'Let's do the book.' "
    Watkins says, "He had to clear his name.""
    [...]
    Lake says his motivation for participating in the book, for cooperating in the NCAA investigation and for speaking to USA TODAY is not to hurt Bush, Bush's family or USC. All he has ever wanted, Lake says, is to be reimbursed for the money he says in court papers that he spent on Bush, Bush's family and their New Era business venture. He said some of the money he originally gave Bush came from his mother and sister.
    "People blow it out of proportion, like I'm the guy trying to take 'SC down and trying to make Reggie lose his Heisman Trophy," Lake says. "I just wanted my money back. That's all I ever wanted from Day 1."
    - - -
With the Yaeger book, he's getting it, and stands to get more in his suit against Bush, which he used as a reason to deny USAT access to the shrewd tapes he said he made of Bush and his stepfather, the same tapes for which Yaeger paid well as a foundation of his investigation. The line here between "jilted businessman" and "corrupt opportunist" is virtually nonexistant, so the paper adds a little family angle in a sidebar pushing Lake's story that he was trying to go straight and enlisted his mother and sister - a local TV anchor in San Diego - to help him get off the ground with the best connection he had:
  • "We both saw a way that we could keep Lloyd on the straight and narrow, because with his past record it's difficult for him to get a job," [his mother] says.
    [...]
    "You know your child, you know when he's got that faraway look when things aren't going right, and he was getting to be quite irritable," Gunner says. "I sensed something wasn't right. ... He was panicking, mainly about his sister's money and my money. He had lost our money. (He was thinking), 'They trusted me. Here I am again in another situation where I've let them down.' "
    - - -
That's very honorable, after the fact, but it doesn't suddenly make Lake the one person in the story worth rooting for. If his deal hadn't fallen apart, he'd probably be just what he set out to be: a corrupt agent who undermined the system for his own gain. From the outside, there are no good guys. • At Least Somebody's Happy. Pitt's message to Auburn fans re: the Tigers' new defensive coordinator, via the descriptively-named (and triumphant) FirePaulRhoads.com:
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The game in question is a 497-yard, six-touchdown night by Navy in a 48-45, double overtime Midshipmen win last October. A commenter in a long thread of mostly Rhoads-hatin' at Pitt Blather has a more specific list of crimes perpetrated by Rhoads' units. Summary: "Auburn, you are in the SEC. This is the best coach you could get. Thank you for an early Christmas present." (Uh, turn the period after "get" into a question mark to complete the thought) Across the SEC West, a new name surfaces in LSU's defensive coordinator search, per the L.A. Daily News' Scott Wolf: how about Ed Orgeron back home in dat der bayou? No Louisiana outlet has picked up on the "Orgeron option," but with Les Miles apparently locked in for the forseeable future, it's safe to say we all want this.
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Yes yes yes.
- - -

• Against the Wall? Spread `em. Penn State hasn't finished in the top half of the country in passing yards or pass efficiency this decade, largely because of its problems with completion percentage and attendant inability to take advantage of its big play talent at wide receiver, and given the choice, most Lion partisans would be content to see First Son Jay Paterno move out of his role as passing game coordinator. Alas, while his name and connections could serve JayPa well, he's more interested in fixing what's broken (and he could too be a head coach!):
  • Jay Paterno feels that some day he could be a head coach, too, just like his famous father. For now, though, he said his only priority is helping Penn State move to more of a spread-style offense next season and getting his dad and boss, Joe Paterno, more wins.
    "Most people tell me there is no lack of confidence in me," said Jay Paterno, the Nittany Lions' quarterbacks coach who helps call passing plays. "But I'm just worried about next year."
    Joe Paterno said after the Alamo Bowl late last month that his son has the ability to be a head coach, "but I don't think Penn State would be a good place for him right now." Having his son succeed him would make it seem as if "I programmed the whole thing," JoePa said.
    [...]
    Next season might bring a different look to the Penn State offense. Coaches have said the Nittany Lions will go back to more of the spread-style attack used in 2005, when run-pass threat Michael Robinson started at quarterback.
    [...]
    Jay Paterno said the team's goal is to both run and pass for 200 yards each game out what has been dubbed the "Spread HD."
    "It's not a philosophical shift, but more of a personnel shift," he said. "It's a different system than people have seen the last couple years, but the whole idea is to give us the best chance to win."
    He understands that he is sometimes a target of fans critical of the play-calling and the quarterback's performance. Perhaps with that in mind, he joked about what the "HD" stood for in the Nittany Lions' spread plans.
    "It could stand for 'high-definition' or 'highly diverse,"' Jay Paterno said. "As long as it doesn't stand for `huge dud."'
    - - -
Robinson, the only even moderately athletic PSU quarterback of the last two decades, at least, was a Heisman finalist on a Big Ten championship team that was one second from an undefeated season despite sub-Morellian passing skills, a fact that - assuming the move is coming too late to sway Terrelle Pryor - probably gives Darryll Clark an edge on the position over more "traditional" pocket passer Pat Devlin. This will depend mainly on whether the emphasis is on spreading to run or to pass - Clark ran for 60 yards in the Alamo Bowl but didn't attempt to throw - but past history and general trends in Happy Valley and nationally suggest the running quarterback is the most likely option. In addition, Penn State and Michigan are both adopting the spread as a base offense, and if Pryor winds up at Ohio State, the Buckeyes could move back in that direction, too. Yeah, the novelty is officially the norm.
• Not So Fast My Friend! Part Deux. At least somebody's paying attention: a day after I suggested undersized, lightly regarded (by draft scouts) Oregon safety Patrick Chung was proceeding hastily by foregoing his final year of eligibility, he reconsiders the move:
  • Junior rover Patrick Chung, the University of Oregon's leading tackler last season, has opted against this year's NFL draft and will finish his senior year in Eugene. Chung had filed paperwork this week with the NFL as a precautionary measure and had until Friday to withdraw.
    "I love our fans, I love our coaches, and I love the atmosphere here," Chung said. "How could I leave? Once I have earned my degree, I will pursue my dream of playing in the NFL."
    - - -
So much love, so much head-knockin' from momma. Get that piece of paper, son, and try your luck next year. Chung is the second early-entering flip-flopper in as many days: Michael Oher reversed his decision to jump from Ole Miss on Wednesday.
• Data Confirms Instincts. A study of 26 I-A schools released earlier this month by the University of Colorado concludes football causes crime – or losing football does, anyway, as summarized in the abstract:
  • There is a great deal of anecdotal evidence that college football games can lead to aggressive and destructive behavior by fans. However, to date, no empirical study has attempted to document the magnitude of this phenomenon. We match daily data on offenses from the NIBRS to 26 Division I-A college football programs in order to estimate the relationship between college football games and crime. Our results suggest that the host community registers sharp increases in assaults, vandalism, arrests for disorderly conduct, and arrests for alcohol-related offenses on game days. Upsets are associated with the largest increases in the number of expected offenses. These estimates are discussed in the context of psychological theories of fan aggression. Keywords: college football, crime, aggression, alcohol, drinking
    - - -
    [HT: FanBlogs]
This veers suspiciously close to what Orson Swindle earlier this week dubbed "duh studies," especially for SEC fans – large crowds of disproportionately young people crammed against one another in a contentious atmosphere, drinking and making every attempt to "go crazy," etc. – but at least attempts to explain why this isn't the case:
  • Some portion of the relationship between home games and offenses may be mechanical in nature, due to the fact that home games often attract a temporary, but substantial, influx of people from outside the host community. However, the results with regard to upsets suggest that fans react to the outcome of games. In the next section we discuss the potential links between sporting events and crime, paying special attention to the psychological theories of spectator aggression.
    - - -
It's an interesting study, if you're okay with the term "binomial regression," and the upshot is this:
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The charts for vandalism, DUI, diorderly conduct and liquor law violations are identical. It is true that these events at football games are probably like shooting fish in a barrell for vigilant, concentrated college town police compared to everyday instances that might be more likely to fall through the cracks under normal circumstances, but to suggest this doesn't reflect a reality on gamedays, you know, duh.
• Unenrolled. Starting quarterback Jameel Sewell, who progressed as a game manager as a sophomore, if nothing else, is not enrolled in classes at Virginia, and therefore will probably miss Spring practice. Ditto Notre Dame defensive tackle Pat Kuntz (heh), who is sitting out for "personal reasons" but expects to be back in the fall.
 
James Davis pulls his name from the NFL draft and opts to return to Clemson for his senior season. HELL YEAH
 
Virginia Had A Bad Day

Posted Jan 19th 2008 12:05AM by Ian Cohen
Filed under: Virginia Football, ACC, BCS, NCAA FB Gossip, NCAA FB Scandal
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According to today's Cavalier Daily, Virginia ranks #1 in terms of black enrollment among US News' top schools. Check it out- it's pretty heartwarming. Other than that, if you're a fan of UVA sporting teams, just swear off the internet altogether today. None of it's good for you.

We'll get to Mike London later, but I'll ask you this- did you like what you saw from Peter Lalich in the Gator Bowl? Against UNC? Well, get used to it. Admittedly, I did have a post in the making questioning whether Jameel Sewell was a viable long-term solution for Virginia. While the offense was improving as it catered to Sewell's abilities, it was still remarkably limited in its options; blame it on the dearth of gamebreaking receivers or the fact that any pass that Sewell throws past ten yards can most generously be described as "an adventure." It can be an effective attack, but ultimately incapable of quick scores or big plays through the air.

This is no longer an issue, as Sewell and three other Virginia footballers (starting CB Chris Cook, WR Chris Dalton and freshman LB Darnell Carter) aren't enrolled for spring classes and will most likely miss the 2008 season, if not transfer altogther. Can't say this is too much of a surprise, seeing as how Cook missed the Gator Bowl and Sewell's academic standing had been shaky since day one. I guess my comparisons to Bryson Spinner are more apt than ever.
Virginia had put themselves in a good position to be competitive in the ACC this upcoming year, with an offense that was starting to find an identity and a defense that would likely remain strong even with the loss of Chris Long. And while some factions in UVA's fanbase have been calling for the highly-touted Lalich from the moment he signed on, there have been many indications that he's a little too green, even if I'll admit that his fumble in the Gator Bowl was more a result of an offensive line breakdown than inexperience. But the problem is that the Grohs have spent the last two years hitching their cart to Sewell and seem even more scared of throwing to wide receivers with Lalich.

But even more disturbing is that academic attrition appears to becoming more of a trend under Groh, particularly difficult to swallow since most Hoos (guilty as charged) tend to use the high standards of admission as a shield against claims of gridiron underachievement. Some have accused Groh of giving offers to kids he knows darn well aren't up to snuff in the classroom, and this isn't helping.
 
Ex-Oklahoma State QB Reid transfers

Posted: Friday January 18, 2008 11:49PM; Updated: Friday January 18, 2008 11:49PM

HOUSTON (AP) -- Former Oklahoma State quarterback Bobby Reid said Friday he will transfer to Texas Southern for his final season rather than keep himself eligible for the NFL draft.
Reid, who decided to leave the Cowboys after a junior season in which he was benched after two games, made the decision hours after the NCAA granted him a waiver to transfer to a Championship Subdivision school.
Reid's decision was first reported by Houston television station KRIV.
"I think this is the best route to take," Reid told KRIV.
Reid entered last season seemingly entrenched as the Cowboys' starter, having held the job since midway through his freshman season. But he left a Sept. 8 game against Florida Atlantic with an injury, opening the door for Zac Robinson, who started Oklahoma State's last 11 games.
Reid, who went to high school at Galena Park North Shore in suburban Houston, played only sparingly after his demotion.
Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy's much-publicized tirade directed at a newspaper columnist last season was about a story critical of Reid.
Texas Southern went 0-11 last season.
 
Davis might return to Clemson

Star running back may rescind NFL draft declaration

Posted: Friday January 18, 2008 5:23PM; Updated: Friday January 18, 2008 5:23PM

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James Davis eclipsed the 1,000-yard barrier for the second consecutive season in 2007.
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</td></tr></tbody></table>COLUMBIA, S.C. (AP) -- Clemson's "Thunder" wants to come back to Death Valley.
Tigers star runner James Davis has talked with Clemson coaches about rescinding his declaration for the NFL draft and playing his senior year in college, Clemson athletic spokesman Tim Bourret said Friday.
The deadline for underclassmen to declare for the draft was Tuesday. However, the players have 72 hours to reconsider, as long as they have not signed with an agent, Bourret said.
Davis met with head coach Tommy Bowden on Jan. 9 and then told reporters why he thought it best to leave for the pros.
Davis struggled with his choice since Clemson's 23-20 overtime loss to Auburn at the Chick-fil-A Bowl on New Year's Eve. He met twice with his family and made a trip to Florida to clear his head.
Part of the reason to go pro was financial, said Davis, who has a 1-year-old daughter. A bigger reason was Davis' goal of playing in the NFL.
"It's my dream, man," he said then.
Davis was projected as a third-round selection. However, Bowden had asked Davis to call around to NFL general managers about his prospects. Apparently, Davis didn't like what he heard.
This year's draft has an impressive group of running backs, including Darren McFadden and Felix Jones from Arkansas as well as Central Florida's Kevin Smith, Michigan's Mike Hart, Rutgers' Ray Rice and West Virginia's Steve Slaton.
Bourret said Davis was in process of filing the paperwork to return and has until midnight to finish.
Clemson junior defensive end Phillip Merling is the only other Tiger to leave early for the draft.
Before Clemson's bowl loss, Davis had leaned toward a return. He was jazzed about the Tigers' prospects with all but three players who started in the bowl loss against Auburn back next season.
Should Davis, nicknamed "Thunder," come back, he would rejoin a dynamic backfield with friend C.J. Spiller, known as "Lightning."
Davis was the power part of the duo. He led the Tigers in rushing the past three years, going past the 1,000-yard mark in 2006 and 2007. Davis is just the third Clemson player, along with runner Raymond Priester and quarterback Woody Dantzler, with consecutive 1,000-yard seasons.
Davis finished with 38 career touchdowns, second all-time in Clemson history.
Bowden said last week he thought it was Davis' best interest to come back to Clemson for a final season. But the coach said he would thoroughly support whatever Davis did.
 
Can't Knock the Hustle(?): Branden Ore

Posted Jan 18th 2008 10:41AM by Ian Cohen
Filed under: Virginia Tech Football, ACC, BCS, NFL Prospects
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I have a hard time trying to figure out what goes down at the NFL Advisory Committee that determines draft status for guys looking to make the leap. At this point, you have to wonder what kind of advice they're giving running backs seeing as how nearly everyone on the brink is chasing that buck and fixin' to make our fantasy lives hell. Ray Rice, Jamal Charles, Steve Slaton, you name it- expect to own at least one of them off the strength of a 50 yard, 1 TD game replacing Justin Fargas or whatever.

I mean, what can you use to distinguish yourself from the countless other end-of-first day guys? A bionic arm? Fluency in three languages? A starring role in a crack cocaine possession case? If the last one counts for anything, Branden Ore's got nothing to worry about come draft day. Perhaps realizing that being in Blacksburg tends to make things exceedingly difficult for him, between the injuries and legal mishegas, Ore filed his paperwork yesterday.

Yes, it's a suspicious move seeing as how he seemed intent on staying in Blacksburg for perhaps an injury-free season to solidify his prospects. Not to mention the overhanging legal woes. He still has the option of pulling out today, but as he said to reporters, "I ain't talkin', dog." While you may question his second gear, there's no doubt he knows how to stick to the G Code.
 
From thewizardofodds.blogspot.com:

To the Victors Go the Spoils

Rich Rodriguez was showing Superman recruit Terrelle Pryor around Ann Arbor on Saturday. Part of the day was spent at the Iowa-Michigan basketball game, which became a sideshow when Rodriguez and Pryor walked into Crisler Arena with about 12 minutes left in the first half.

Asked about his visit, Pryor told the Associated Press via text message: "It's cool."

Details about Rodriguez's contract also became public. He has a six-year deal worth $2.5 million annually and — get this — a $4 million buyout. Gee, where have we heard that number before?

The messy divorce between Rodriguez and West Virginia continued. West Virginia governor Joe Manchin joined the fun, saying Rodriguez was wrong to suggest there is an ongoing smear campaign.

"As far as everyone I know — and that includes the president and the athletic director and most of the staff — there is no smear campaign," Manchin told the Charleston Gazette. "The facts are simply what they are."

Michigan fans have been giddy over all of this, but Mitch Albom of the Detroit Free Press has a warning for the Wolverines:

"If Lloyd Carr, early in his career as Michigan head coach, had bolted for another school and a richer contract — as Rich Rodriguez did — if he initially lied about a meeting with that school, if he abruptly left the Wolverines before a bowl, if he informed Michigan of his departure through a graduate assistant, if he informed a prep quarterback prospect before he told his U-M boss, if he shredded files in Ann Arbor, if he took most of the U-M staff with him, and if he owed Michigan a $4-million buyout and had his lawyers working on ways not to pay it — you can bet we'd be angry."
 
From thewizardofodds.blogspot.com:

Did Urban Meyer Rat Out Recruit?

Patrick Johnson is a hotshot cornerback recruit from Pompano Beach and he announced on Jan. 5 that he would attend Louisiana State. Johnson's choice of schools apparently didn't go over well with Florida, which was a finalist for the cornerback. Johnson, regarded as LSU's top recruit, is rated the No. 2 overall defensive prospect by Rivals.

Johnson was expected to start classes this week and participate in spring drills, but Florida questioned his academic eligibility with the NCAA. Johnson twice scored 16 on the ACT before soaring to a 22 in October. ACT officials subsequently reviewed his test results and "flagged" the October score, according to the Times-Picayune.

Said Johnson: "Florida made an issue about the ACT score. They're cowards. They had to go behind my back. But that's OK. We play them this year [on Oct. 11 at Florida]."

Johnson, who said he had to take the writing portion of the test again, is hoping to get the matter cleared up by Thursday, the last day to register for spring classes.

Thanks to Stephen!
 
From thewizardofodds.blogspot.com:

One With the Borg

Sophomore Arizona offensive lineman Daniel Borg quit the team last week to concentrate on academics. Normally that doesn't make the news cycle in this part of cyberspace, but Borg's unique mug shot caught our eye.

Now we're not exactly sure what is going on here. This could be some hybrid cross between a smile and a sneer on that stubbly face.

Borg was named to the Pacific 10's all-academic team in 2006 after posting a 3.85 grade-point average. He's 30 units from completing his computer sciences degree and plans to attend grad school.
 
UGA players suspended after arrests

Posted: Sunday January 20, 2008 8:13PM; Updated: Sunday January 20, 2008 8:13PM

ATHENS, Ga. (AP) -- Two Georgia players were suspended for the team's season-opening game against Georgia Southern following their arrests on alcohol-related charges.
Defensive back Donavon Baldwin and fullback Fred Munzenmaier were booked into the Clarke County Jail early Sunday.
Both backup players were given a minimum one-game suspension. In addition to missing the Aug. 30 game against Georgia Southern, the two will be assigned community service and also will have internal discipline.
Baldwin, who will be a junior in 2008, was arrested by University of Georgia police for driving under the influence of alcohol and improper driving.
Munzenmaier, a sophomore, was arrested by Athens-Clarke County police for underage possession or consumption of alcohol and pedestrian walking on the road.
"They know better, and I'm disappointed in both of them," coach Mark Richt said in a statement Sunday night. "They will have to pay a price, but it's unfortunate the rest of the team will also have to suffer for their poor judgment."
The Athens Banner-Herald reported Munzenmaier was arrested after he was seen on an Athens street waving his arms. According to the incident report, the officer slammed on his brakes to avoid running over him.
The officer asked Munzenmaier for his ID and noticed a strong smell of alcohol. Munzenmaier said he thought he was flagging down a taxi.
Munzenmaier told the officer it was obvious the police have it "out for them," according to the report, and that police have a point system for athletes.
Munzenmaier later used an expletive to tell the officer to shut his mouth, according to the report.
Baldwin was arrested by University of Georgia police and was released at 5:59 a.m. on bonds totaling $2,000. Munzenmaier was released at 6:04 a.m. on $750 in bonds.
Munzenmaier played in 10 games and scored a rushing touchdown against Ole Miss. Baldwin did not record a tackle while playing on special teams in eight games.
Linebacker Akeem Hebron was suspended from the university for the fall semester after twice being arrested for underage possession in the spring.
Tight end Tripp Chandler and quarterback Blake Barnes were arrested on alcohol-related charges while walking on Lumpkin Street last June and drew one-game suspensions.
Also on Saturday night, former Georgia safety Terreal Bierria was arrested by Athens-Clarke police for DUI and speeding. Bierria, who is listed in the university's student directory, was a fourth-round pick by Seattle in 2002. He was cut in 2005.
 
<table><tbody><tr><td colspan="3" class="storytitle"> Replacing The 2008 Early Entries </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="primaryimage" valign="top">
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West Virginia RB/WR Noel Devine
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</td> <td valign="top"> <table bgcolor="#f5f5f5" border="0" cellpadding="4" cellspacing="1" width="60%"> <tbody><tr valign="top"> <td nowrap="nowrap" valign="middle">By Richard Cirminiello
CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Jan 20, 2008
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Who'll replace the players who ducked out early for the NFL? If a player is good enough to bolt, he was likely a big-time talent who'll be missed, but Richard Cirminiello shows how each team will be able to fill the holes.
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[FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif]Replacing the 2008 NFL Early Entries[/FONT]
[FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif][/FONT][FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif]By Richard Cirminiello [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif][/FONT] - The 2008 Early Entries & Projections
- The 2007 Early Entry Replacements
 Although juniors and redshirt sophomores will forego their final years of college eligibility for a variety of different reasons, the goal for each is always the same—fulfilling a boyhood dream by making it to the NFL.

Every January, anywhere from three to four dozen players declare as early entries into that April’s NFL Draft, sobering news for the campuses they leave behind, but not so bad news for the heir apparents eagerly hoping to move up the depth chart. The reality is that for every athlete that leaves with unused eligibility, there are at least two or three holdovers staring at the opening with wide eyes. It’s the natural cycle of athletics that’ll continue as long as the NFL pays for play.

From Miami to Hawaii, applications are already being taken for a bunch of new jobs that have opened up over the past couple of weeks.

G Branden Albert, Virginia
Opens the door for…Patrick Slebonick. After caddying for Albert in 2007, Slebonick is poised to see the most extensive action of his Cavalier career. A well-sized lineman at 6-5 and 296 pounds, the junior is a heady player with an outstanding work ethic. However, most of Slebonick’s experience over the last two seasons has come on special teams.

WR Adrian Arrington, Michigan
Opens the door for…Greg Mathews. The departure of not only Arrington, but also Mario Manningham, means Mathews has a chance to improve on last year’s 39 receptions, even in Rich Rodriguez’s new run-oriented spread offense. A physically imposing receiver, he really polished up his overall game in last year’s second season in Ann Arbor.

WR Earl Bennett, Vanderbilt
Opens the door for…Alex Washington. There’s no easy way to replace the production of Bennett, one of the best to ever play for Vandy, on and away from the field. Taking a stab at it will be junior-to-be Alex Washington, a diminutive slot receiver who’s caught 12 passes in his first two seasons. Mostly a return man in 2007, he needs to provide some support to George Smith and Sean Walker, the Dores’ starting X and Z receivers.

TE Martellus Bennett, Texas A&M
Opens the door for…Frank Avery. Another rangy target like Bennett, the 6-5 Avery is hoping to someday provide similar pass-catching production from the tight end position. The freshman redshirted in 2007, using his time to get better acclimated to college life, while adding some much-needed bulk in the weight room.

WR Davone Bess, Hawaii
Opens the door for…Aaron Bain. With Bess goes 293 career receptions and 41 touchdowns, another sign of the changing times at Hawaii. Bain has caught 17 passes for 230 yards and three touchdowns in the last three seasons, numbers he’ll likely surpass in his senior season alone now that the path to the top of the depth chart has been cleared away.

DE Calais Campbell, Miami
Opens the door for…Courtney Harris. With Campbell moving on, Harris gets his best shot to date to show why he was such a coveted recruit in 2005. Built like a strongside linebacker, he’s added some muscle without losing the quickness off the edge or burst off the snap. In a limited role in 2007, Harris had 10 tackles, three tackles for loss, and half a sack.

RB Jamaal Charles, Texas
Opens the door for…Vondrell McGee. One of the country’s premier recruits of 2006, McGee gets a shot to be the feature back a year earlier than expected. More of a north-south runner than Charles, who can lower his shoulder and deliver a pop, he got his feet wet as a redshirt freshman, rushing for 297 yards and eight touchdowns on 75 carries.

T Ryan Clady, Boise State
Opens the door for…Matt Slater. Slater was going to take over for Clady at some point, but now he gets thrown into the deep end of the water as a third-year sophomore. A good all-around athlete at 6-5, he’s gradually added weight since leaving River Falls, Wisc. in anticipation of a full-time opportunity.

T Anthony Collins, Kansas
Opens the door for…Matt Darton. After starting one game for Collins last fall, Darton will spend the spring and beyond convincing the staff that he’s ready to start all 12 in 2008. A big bookend at 6-6 and 305 pounds, he hasn’t seen much relevant action since leaving San Diego for Lawrence in 2004.

DE Johnny Dingle, West Virginia
Opens the door for…James Ingram. Seemingly headed toward a breakout year, Ingram’s sophomore season was wiped out after September because of a nagging back injury. He displayed flashes of being a terrific edge rusher as a freshman in 2006, showing off the quickness and long arms that the Mountaineer staff craves now that Dingle has opted out.

TE Jermichael Finley, Texas
Opens the door for…Blaine Irby. Irby was recruited as the eventual successor to Finley in the passing game, but just not in 2008. One of the nation’s top-rated high school tight ends a year ago, he moves like a wide receiver and has terrific hands, making the first two catches of his Longhorn career as a true freshman last fall.

CB Brandon Flowers, Virginia Tech
Opens the door for…Rashad Carmichael. After backing up Macho Harris at field corner a year ago, Carmichael is the likely candidate to shift to boundary corner and take over for Flowers. Carmichael played in all 14 games as a redshirt freshman in 2007, showing the speed and rapid change of direction that’ll compensate for a 5-9, 175-pound frame.

DE Vernon Gholston, Ohio State
Opens the door for…Lawrence Wilson. Had Gholston returned to Columbus, Wilson might have struggled to regain his starting job now that freshman sensation Cameron Heyward has become a fixture on the line. Lost for the season to a broken leg in the opener, Wilson is a 6-6, 275-pound future pro that’s determined to have that breakout year which was supposed to happen in 2007.

WR Ryan Grice-Mullen, Hawaii
Opens the door for… Michael Washington. Washington has had a limited role in the Warrior passing game the last three years, catching just 19 passes, but that changes in 2008 with last year’s top three receivers off campus. One of the team’s smallest players at 5-7 and 175 pounds, he’ll be looking for soft spots underneath against opposing WAC defenses.

DT Letroy Guion, Florida State
Opens the door for…Emmanuel Dunbar. A top reserve at both defensive tackle spots last year and the starter in the Music City Bowl, Dunbar will be making the natural transition to the first team in 2008. While he’s been slowed by a bad back early in his career, he’s healthy again and capable of having the type of breakout year Guion had in 2007.

WR James Hardy, Indiana
Opens the door for…Terrance Turner. Turner is not Hardy, but he does share some of his attributes, such as an imposing frame and the potential to make plays downfield. He was a monster in the spring game, abusing the Hoosier defensive backs, but tore his ACL early in the year, temporarily derailing his road to big things in Bloomington.

DE Derrick Harvey, Florida
Opens the door for…Carlos Dunlap. Although Harvey will certainly be missed, Dunlap has all the physical tools to be just as effective in time. How long it’ll be hinges on how hard he works in the offseason. At 6-6 and 250 pounds, he’s uncommonly explosive for a young defender just one year removed from high school. Both Dunlap and classmate Justin Trattou have the potential to be beasts off the edge for the Gators.

LB Geno Hayes, Florida State
Opens the door for…Marcus Ball. After picking up 24 tackles as Hayes’ understudy in 2007, Ball is well-positioned to win the job as he enters his junior season. While built more like a strong safety, he plays with tremendous quickness and range, showing the speed to wreak havoc on the blitz. Stronger than he looks, Ball is on the brink of a breakout year in 2008.

LB Erin Henderson, Maryland
Opens the door for…Adrian Moten. It was evident throughout his redshirt freshman season that Moten was ready for a promotion. As a backup, he had 50 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss, and 5.5, doing most of his damage late in the year and in the Emerald Bowl. The Terps are also very fond of another freshman, Alex Wujciak, who sat out last season with an ACL tear.

CB Jack Ikegwuonu, Wisconsin
Opens the door for…Josh Nettles. There's a long line of candidates hoping to supplant Ikegwuonu, with Nettles standing at the head of it. One of the better all-around athletes in the secondary, he’ll have to polish up his pass coverage skills to fend off other contenders, including Niles Brinkley and Otis Merrill.

WR DeSean Jackson, California
Opens the door for…Nyan Boateng. Boateng is walking into an ideal situation provided he can clean up the legal mess he created last fall. A transfer from Florida and a superb talent, he hopes to join a Cal offense that returns just one player that has caught a pass in college. The wide-open competition in the spring and summer will also shine the spotlight on young players, such as Jeremy Ross, Michael Calvin, and members of this year’s recruiting class.

RB Felix Jones, Arkansas
Opens the door for… Michael Smith. Smith saw the field in nine games as a sophomore last year, rushing for 291 yards and three touchdowns on just 39 carries, a pretty believable impression of Jones. Averaging 6.8 yards a carry through two seasons, he’s a 5-7 jitterbug that provides a nice change-of-pace for the Razorback offense.

WR Malcolm Kelly, Oklahoma
Opens the door for…Quentin Chaney or Adron Tennell. With Kelly leaving and QB Sam Bradford returning, some young Sooner receiver is going to blossom into a star alongside veterans Juaquin Iglesias and Manuel Johnson. Chaney is a 6-5 mismatch, who finished the season with six receptions and a pair of touchdowns in his last three games. Tennell is another well-sized future star from the Class of 2006, who must first rebound from an ACL injury suffered toward the end of last season.

CB Justin King, Penn State
Opens the door for…A.J. Wallace. Wallace has the experience, size, and closing speed to do just fine as the successor to King, but he and Lydell Sargeant better stay off the injured list in 2008. The Nittany Lions appear to be perilously thin at cornerback, a situation that’s been exacerbated by King’s early departure to the NFL.

QB Xavier Lee, Florida State
Opens the door for…Christian Ponder. Drew Weatherford will be the starter in 2008, but Lee’s exit creates an opening for Ponder to be the understudy. A member of the Noles’ Class of 2006, he has a lively arm and the quick feet to escape pressure. He got those feet wet in the Virginia Tech game last November, going 8-of-18 for 105 yards, a touchdown and two picks.

LB Curtis Lofton, Oklahoma
Opens the door for…Lamont Robinson. By virtue of being the No. 2 guy last year, Robinson has a head start to be the starter in the middle, but is no lock to win the job. The junior-to-be is going to get pushed hard by former JUCO All-American Mike Reed and former high school All-American Austin Box, neither of whom saw action in 2007.

WR Mario Manningham, Michigan
Opens the door for…Junior Hemingway. Whoever is throwing passes in Ann Arbor next season will want to look for Hemingway, a top recruit from 2007 that lettered as a true freshman. While he’s not a blazer, at 6-2 and 200 pounds, he can outmuscle smaller defensive backs and leap above them to make the difficult catch.

LB Jerod Mayo, Tennessee
Opens the door for…Ellix Wilson. If defensive coordinator prefers experience in the middle, he’ll tab Wilson, Mayo’s backup a year ago and a veteran of 40 games in Knoxville. If he opts for upside potential, there are a number of options, including shifting linebackers around in an effort to get the three best on the field at the same time.

RB Darren McFadden, Arkansas
Opens the door for…De’Anthony Curtis. Michael Smith, last year’s third-leading rusher, will certainly get touches, but at 5-7 and 175 pounds, he’s not a feature back. Curtis, on the other hand, just might be. Provided he sticks with his original commitment to Arkansas, he’d be on the right campus to push for immediate playing time after arriving in August.

RB Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois
Opens the door for…Daniel Dufrene. It’s a good thing Dufrene got carries in every game last season because they’ll help to prepare him to the shoulder the load in 2008. A transfer from theCollege of the Sequoias a year ago, he ran for 294 yards and two touchdowns, almost half of which came in the Illini’s upset of Ohio State in November.

DE Phillip Merling, Clemson
Opens the door for…DaQuan Bowers. Although Kevin Alexander is next in line on the depth chart, and sure to play a role on the 2008 defense, he’ll have to be special to keep Bowers out of the lineup. One of the nation’s top recruit, and the most heralded kid to ever sign with Clemson, Bowers has the size, speed, and athleticism to make leave an impression in his rookie season.

S DaJuan Morgan, NC State
Opens the door for…Javon Walker. Walker played well as a redshirt freshman last year, and has much upside as any Wolfpack safety, but could lose ground rehabbing a knee injury suffered late last fall. If he’s not at full strength by next summer, Jimmaul Simmons, who redshirted in 2007, could step into the vacancy left by Morgan.

LB Lamar Myles, Louisville
Opens the door for…Mozell Axson or James Bryant. While Axson will get a look because of his three years experience with the program, Bryant offers greater upside and potential as a run-stuffing middle linebacker. A 6-3, 250-pound transfer from Miami with obvious physical attributes, he’s also a bit of head case, which is why Axson can’t be completely dismissed.

S Kenny Phillips, Miami
Opens the door for…Anthony Reddick. The only thing that can soften the blow of Phillips leaving would be Reddick making a full recovery from last spring’s ACL tear in his right knee, the second one in two years. An All-ACC-caliber defender, injuries and a ugly suspension following the 2006 brawl with Florida International have kept him from fulfilling his potential.

G Chilo Rachal, USC
Opens the door for…Zack Heberer. Heberer started twice last season for Rachal as a redshirt freshman, so he’ll be no stranger to taking over on a full-time basis in 2008. One of the highest-rated guards coming out of high school in 2005, he’s very quick out of the blocks and getting stronger every year since signing with the Trojans.

QB Bobby Reid, Oklahoma State
Opens the door for…Alex Cate. Reid’s departure has no impact on starter Zac Robinson, but it does thin the Cowboys’ depth at such a critical spot on the field. Robinson takes a lot of hits outside the pocket, meaning Cate better be ready to go at a moment’s notice. An accurate thrower with good zip on his passes, he did not throw a pass as a redshirt freshman in 2007. WR Darius Reynaud, West Virginia
Opens the door for…Brandon Hogan. Dorrell Jalloh, Tito Gonzales, and Wes Lyons may catch more passes in 2008, but Hogan is the closest thing the Mountaineers have to a reincarnation of Reynaud. An undersized burner that’ll be used a number of different ways, he can hit a seam and just keep running when there’s daylight. Hogan had 12 catches in eight games last fall, numbers that are sure to rise next year.

RB Ray Rice, Rutgers
Opens the door for… Kordell Young. As if replacing a Rutgers legend won’t be hard enough, Young will try to do so less than a year after suffering a season-ending ACL tear. When healthy, he’s the future at the position for the Scarlet Knights, but the injury allowed the staff to also get a better look at freshman Mason Robinson, who earned 36 carries last season.

CB Orlando Scandrick, Boise State
Opens the door for…Brandyn Thompson. It’s a good thing that Thompson was one of five Broncos to play as true freshmen in 2007 because he’s about to be thrown into the deep end of the pool. With eight games of experience, he’s the leading candidate to replace Scandrick in a conference that demands its corners to be thick-skinned.

DT Pat Sims, Auburn
Opens the door for…Mike Blanc or Zach Clayton. Blanc and Clayton, a pair of lightly-used redshirt freshman a year ago, will be counted to pick up the slack of Sims, an emerging star in the SEC. Neither lineman arrived on the Plains with top billing, meaning both could be pushed for playing time when freshman Charles Deas joins the program in the summer.

RB Steve Slaton, West Virginia
Opens the door for…Noel Devine. Devine was going to have a key role in the Mountaineer offense no matter what Slaton decided, but now he’ll have a chance to be the feature back earlier than expected. A jackrabbit in the open field, he bolted for 627 yards and six touchdowns on only 73 carries in his debut as a true freshman.

RB Kevin Smith, UCF
Opens the door for…Phillip Smith. Smith is likely to be replaced Smith, but that’s where the simplicity of the transition stops for the Knights. The Smith that will be returning to Orlando has good size like his predecessor, and has played extensively in his first two seasons, carrying 101 times for 422 yards and four touchdowns.

CB Reggie Smith, Oklahoma
Opens the door for…Dominique Franks. A depleted Sooner secondary forced Franks into the starting lineup for the Fiesta Bowl, a role he’ll grow familiar with in 2008. A blue-chip recruit from 2006, he possesses outstanding straight-line speed and the size to match up well with some of the Big 12’s rangier receivers.

WR Taj Smith, Syracuse
Opens the door for…Lavar Lobdell. If Lobdell was ever going to respond to a wake-up call, now would be the time. Although he has the size and athletic ability to be a playmaker opposite Mike Williams, that hasn’t translated into production for the rising junior, who has caught just 13 passes for 154 yards over the last two seasons.

RB Jonathan Stewart, Oregon
Opens the door for…Jeremiah Johnson. Provided his torn ACL heals properly and academic issues are resolved, Johnson is a terrific Plan B to the departed Stewart. Playing a complimentary role the last two seasons, he’s rushed for 988 yards and 15 touchdowns, showing a knack for snapping off long runs. Just to be safe, the Ducks have signed JUCO transfer LaGarrette Blount, a 6-2, 230-pounder that looks like he’s cut from the same mold as Stewart.

CB Aqib Talib, Kansas
Opens the door for…Kendrick Harper. Talib’s departure leaves a gaping hole in the Jayhawk secondary that Harper and few others will attempt to fill. A transfer from Butler Community (Kans.) College, he fought through injuries in 2007 to appear in eight games, making three starts and 19 tackles.

WR Devin Thomas, Michigan State
Opens the door for… B.J. Cunningham. Although you don’t get better by losing a player of Thomas’ abilities, the Spartan coaching staff absolutely loves the upside of Cunningham, who redshirted last season. He’s a big-body receiver with just two years of experience playing the game, feeding the notion that he’s not even close to reaching his ceiling in East Lansing.

WR Mario Urrutia, Louisville
Opens the door for…Scott Long. The Cardinals are cutting ties with last year’s top four receivers, making No. 5, Long, an important cog in next year’s passing game. After failing to catch a pass in 2006, he played well when Urrutia was dinged up last fall, finishing the season with 27 catches for 358 yards. He has the good size to pull down balls in traffic and the speed to settle under some of Hunter Cantwell’s deep passes.
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<EMBED SRC=http://vmedia.rivals.com/flash/contentheadlines.swf?h1=Utah+football+players+attacked+&h2=&lwidth=620&lheight=60&lshadow=1&sFontColor=000000&sLink= WIDTH=620 HEIGHT=60 SALIGN=lt QUALITY=best SCALE=noborder wmode=transparent ID=rvflash NAME=rvflash BGCOLOR=#FFFFFF TYPE=application/x-shockwave-flash PLUGINSPAGE=http://www.macromedia.com/shockwave/download/index.cgi?P1_Prod_Version=ShockwaveFlash></EMBED></OBJECT><NOSCRIPT></NOSCRIPT></P>James Durrant
UteZone.com Senior Writer
<SCRIPT language=javascript> if ((bIEWindowBrowser) && (navigator.appVersion.indexOf("MSIE 6.") != -1)) document.write("<div id=outercontainer style='height:220px;'>"); else document.write("<div id=outercontainer>"); document.write("<div id=contentcontainer style='font-size: " + currentsize + "pt;'>");</SCRIPT>Talk about it in Inside Ute Nation


Two University of Utah football players and a recruit were attacked Saturday night in Salt Lake City.

<!--Start Image--><SCRIPT language=Javascript>document.write(insertImage('/IMAGES/Player/video/UUFTB07%20PAUL%20KRUGER.JPG', '', 0, 219, 149, 1, 'Utah\'s starting DE Paul Kruger was stabbed twice, once just beneath the ribs and another below the first in the abdominal area.', '', 1200886839000, '', 1141, 'Align=Left'));</SCRIPT><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=157 align=left border=0><TBODY><TR><TD width=151>
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</TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle>Utah's starting DE Paul Kruger was stabbed twice, once just beneath the ribs and another below the first in the abdominal area.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- End Image-->Utah defensive linemen Greg Newman and Paul Kruger were attacked and stabbed after leaving a party just before midnight. Paul's younger brother David Kruger, a four star defensive end and verbal commitment to the Utes, was also attacked.

According to early accounts, the three were walking down a street after leaving a gathering of recruits and their hosts when a car pulled up alongside the football players and the occupants started yelling at them. After exchanging words, the occupants got out of the car and attacked Newman and the Kruger brothers. "There was a fight involving multiple subjects. I've heard estimates between 10 and 15 people brawling in the street," Lt. Jay Southam of the Salt Lake County Sheriff's Office said.

According to the Kruger's mother Jennifer, who spoke to Rivals.com earlier this evening, David Kruger received blows to the back of the head with a pair of brass knuckles. He was released from the hospital earlier today with a broken nose and some facial lacerations, but no major injuries. Greg Newman was stabbed in the back with a screwdriver, but was also released from the hospital with no serious injuries. Paul Kruger was not so fortunate.

Paul was stabbed twice, once just beneath the ribs and another below the first in the abdominal area. According Jennifer, one of Paul's lungs collapsed and he suffered some arterial damage. The exact extent of his injuries is unknown at this time, but he is recovering from surgery to repair the damage and is expected to remain hospitalized for at least a week.

Also cause for concern is the fact that Paul has only one kidney. Paul had to have a kidney removed after an ATV accident that occurred before he became a Ute. Sources say that Paul's healthy kidney is fine.

Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham released a brief statement this evening acknowledging that players were involved. "We are aware of a situation involving a couple of our football players but do not have enough information to discuss it at this time. When I learn more about what happened, I will make a statement."

The Kruger family has asked that those who are willing pray for the recovery of the three football players.
 
Chow to UCLA
By Menelaus Section: Football
Posted on Sun Jan 20, 2008 at 11:34:45 PM EDT


From Dohn:

UCLA coach Rick Neuheisel hit the daily double when it comes to coveted coordinators after Norm Chow accepted the offensive coordinators role Sunday, according to sources. Chow, the former Tennessee Titans and USC offensive coordinator, gives Neuheisel a formidable staff along with defensive coordinator DeWayne Walker.
Neuheisel, Chow and Walker each interviewed for the head coaching job. A UCLA official declined to comment.
Chow was a long-time offensive coordinator at BYU, but made his mark nationally as the offensive coordinator at USC, tutoring Heisman Trophy-winning quarterbacks Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart.
He spent the past three seasons as the offensive coordinator of the NFL's Tennessee Titans, but was fired last week. Neuheisel was waiting for Chow to decide whether Chow would return to college football, attempt to secure another NFL job or take a year off from coaching.

GO BRUINS.
 
Sign Me Up, Tear Me Down: Recruiting Rankings and On-Field Success
By SMQ
Posted on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 04:01:04 PM EDT


The relationship of recruiting and success may be self-evident enough to fall under the heading of “duh studies,” but we are approaching the peak not only of heavy breathing over collections of teenage talent, but also relentless mocking of said breathing, and of the big-business attempts to sate ever-growing recruiting lust with very official, inscrutably-reasoned rankings of that talent. Newspapers will anecdotally trash the system in one-sentence (and occasionally one-word) paragraphs on Signing Day, more or less mirroring the Wizard of Odds’ rhetorical smack before last year’s rankings were released: “snake oil salesmen have more credibility.”
Recruiting is a kind of inherently chicken-and-egg business, which leads to opinions like this, cribbed from a run-of-the-mill debate on a UConn message board last week but representative of the same wider scorn for guru ratings (capitalization and lack thereof sic):
  • for every USC, OSU, LSU, UGA, and USC that are in the top 10, there schools like Tennessee, Michigan State, Penn State, FSU, Miami, & Alabama, that haven't come close to meeting expectations set by the recruiting rankings. it's not groundbreaking to predict that the best players are being recruited by the schools that have, traditionally, been the best. they are playing the odds, they are grading on a curve. they figure the schools that have been the best, will stay the best. so they just rate the recruits of the bigtime programs higher, therefore the bigtime programs will always be ranked higher in the standings. so when LSU wins a national championship they can say "i told you so". But they certainly never predicted the success of Wake Forest, UConn, Boise State, or Hawaii.
    - - -
Oh, the “success” of UConn, following back-to-back seasons of six and eight losses with stirring beatdowns of blue chip factories Duke, Maine, Temple, Pittsburgh, Akron, Louisville, South Florida, Rutgers and Syracuse (be sure to look for these powerhouses on the first chart below). I respect said poster, though, for actually bringing some numbers to the table, namely those of Miami and Florida State on the one end and Wake Forest, Hawaii, Boise State and UConn, about which the recruitniks have been so, so wrong the last two years (well, in UConn’s just one – most of it, anyway). To wit, his trump cards, aggregating the success of classes since 2003:
  • 2007 results:
    Uconn: 9-4 (13-12 over the last 2 seasons) average class of 71
    Cuse: 2-10 (6-18 over the last 2 seasons) average class of 53
    FSU: 7-6 (14-12 over the last 2 seasons) average class of 7
    Miami: 5-7 (12-13 over the last 2 seasons) average class of 8
    WVU: 11-2 (22-4 over the last 2 seasons**) average class of 49
    BSU: 10-3 (23-3 over the last 2 seasons**) average class of 74
    Hawaii: 12-1 (23-4 over the last 2 seasons) average class of 87     **indicates program won a BCS championship within the last 2 years.
    We have 3 programs (Uconn, Hawaii, BSU) who's classes are consistently in the bottom third of D1A who have all won conference championships within the past 2 years, and have 1 BCS championship between them. I know, I know, BSU and Hawaii play much softer schedules. But only once in four years did one of them lead their conference in recruiting according to Scout. And in the past 2 years between them they have a BCS championship, 2 conference championships, and a 46-7 record. Not bad.
    we have 2 programs (WVU, Cuse) who's classes are consistently ranked right around the middle of D1A. One came within 1 loss of a national championship, but still has a BCS championship (actually 2, but that was 3 years ago) while the other has only managed 2 BCS conference wins in 2 years, and only has 6 wins in the last 2 years. based on recruiting rankings, cuse should be competing with WVU for championships, not UConn.
    - - -
    [Emphasis original]
Maybe that’s why UConn’s coach makes so much money these days despite losing the de facto conference championship game by 45 points. To the point (that is, the counterpoint): If you’re going to make a claim about the numbers – especially if the claim is that the numbers don’t matter – you have to use all the numbers. In our case, that means going back to 2002 (the last year for national rankings archives on Rivals.com) and auditing the site’s projections against actual performance over the same span of time. I have no particular reason to use Rivals over any other outlet, except that it has the numbers, its numbers are not wildly different that anyone else’s, and since I want to be able to speak in generalities rather than conduct a journal-ready academic study of an admittedly un-scientific process, it will suffice for that big picture.
To keep things manageable – and since they collectively lost 83 percent of the time last year against schools from BCS conferences, proving a gap that would likely wreck fair comparisons – non-BCS conference teams are not included. Four teams that have made the move from non-BCS to BCS in that span (Louisville, Cincinnati, Connecticut and South Florida) are included, and the one team that has dropped from BCS to non-BCS (Temple) is not included.
Those rankings:

<table cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3"> <tbody><tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(164, 74, 74) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">Rank</td> <td align="center">School</td> <td align="center">2002</td> <td align="center">2003</td> <td align="center">2004</td> <td align="center">2005</td> <td align="center">2006</td> <td align="center">2007</td> <td align="center">Avg.</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">1</td> <td align="right">Southern Cal</td> <td align="center">13</td> <td align="center">3</td> <td align="center">1</td> <td align="center">1</td> <td align="center">1</td> <td align="center">2</td> <td align="center">3.5</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">2</td> <td align="right">Georgia</td> <td align="center">3</td> <td align="center">6</td> <td align="center">6</td> <td align="center">10</td> <td align="center">4</td> <td align="center">9</td> <td align="center">6.3</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">3</td> <td align="right">Oklahoma</td> <td align="center">7</td> <td align="center">4</td> <td align="center">8</td> <td align="center">3</td> <td align="center">9</td> <td align="center">14</td> <td align="center">7.5</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">4</td> <td align="right">Florida</td> <td align="center">20</td> <td align="center">2</td> <td align="center">7</td> <td align="center">15</td> <td align="center">2</td> <td align="center">1</td> <td align="center">7.8</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">5</td> <td align="right">LSU</td> <td align="center">15</td> <td align="center">1</td> <td align="center">2</td> <td align="center">22</td> <td align="center">7</td> <td align="center">4</td> <td align="center">8.5</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">6</td> <td align="right">Florida State</td> <td align="center">4</td> <td align="center">21</td> <td align="center">3</td> <td align="center">2</td> <td align="center">3</td> <td align="center">21</td> <td align="center">9.0</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">7</td> <td align="right">Texas</td> <td align="center">1</td> <td align="center">15</td> <td align="center">10</td> <td align="center">20</td> <td align="center">5</td> <td align="center">5</td> <td align="center">9.3</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">8</td> <td align="right">Miami</td> <td align="center">8</td> <td align="center">5</td> <td align="center">4</td> <td align="center">7</td> <td align="center">14</td> <td align="center">19</td> <td align="center">9.5</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">9</td> <td align="right">Tennessee</td> <td align="center">2</td> <td align="center">18</td> <td align="center">11</td> <td align="center">4</td> <td align="center">23</td> <td align="center">3</td> <td align="center">10.2</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">10</td> <td align="right">Auburn</td> <td align="center">6</td> <td align="center">11</td> <td align="center">21</td> <td align="center">13</td> <td align="center">10</td> <td align="center">7</td> <td align="center">11.3</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">11</td> <td align="right">Michigan</td> <td align="center">16</td> <td align="center">17</td> <td align="center">5</td> <td align="center">6</td> <td align="center">13</td> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="center">11.5</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="right">Ohio State</td> <td align="center">5</td> <td align="center">41</td> <td align="center">9</td> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="center">15</td> <td align="center">15.7</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">13</td> <td align="right">South Carolina</td> <td align="center">11</td> <td align="center">8</td> <td align="center">35</td> <td align="center">23</td> <td align="center">24</td> <td align="center">6</td> <td align="center">17.8</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">14</td> <td align="right">Notre Dame</td> <td align="center">24</td> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="center">32</td> <td align="center">40</td> <td align="center">8</td> <td align="center">8</td> <td align="center">20.7</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">
</td> <td align="right">Texas A&M</td> <td align="center">23</td> <td align="center">10</td> <td align="center">13</td> <td align="center">8</td> <td align="center">27</td> <td align="center">43</td> <td align="center">20.7</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">16</td> <td align="right">Alabama</td> <td align="center">30</td> <td align="center">49</td> <td align="center">15</td> <td align="center">18</td> <td align="center">11</td> <td align="center">10</td> <td align="center">22.2</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">17</td> <td align="right">Nebraska</td> <td align="center">40</td> <td align="center">42</td> <td align="center">27</td> <td align="center">5</td> <td align="center">20</td> <td align="center">13</td> <td align="center">24.5</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">18</td> <td align="right">California</td> <td align="center">64</td> <td align="center">14</td> <td align="center">23</td> <td align="center">9</td> <td align="center">19</td> <td align="center">22</td> <td align="center">25.2</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">19</td> <td align="right">Virginia</td> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="center">20</td> <td align="center">40</td> <td align="center">19</td> <td align="center">39</td> <td align="center">25</td> <td align="center">25.8</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">20</td> <td align="right">Arkansas</td> <td align="center">26</td> <td align="center">29</td> <td align="center">22</td> <td align="center">24</td> <td align="center">26</td> <td align="center">31</td> <td align="center">26.3</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">21</td> <td align="right">UCLA</td> <td align="center">9</td> <td align="center">36</td> <td align="center">34</td> <td align="center">26</td> <td align="center">17</td> <td align="center">40</td> <td align="center">27.0</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">22</td> <td align="right">Maryland</td> <td align="center">35</td> <td align="center">32</td> <td align="center">17</td> <td align="center">16</td> <td align="center">29</td> <td align="center">35</td> <td align="center">27.3</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">23</td> <td align="right">Okla. State</td> <td align="center">27</td> <td align="center">15</td> <td align="center">37</td> <td align="center">42</td> <td align="center">22</td> <td align="center">30</td> <td align="center">28.8</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">24</td> <td align="right">Ole Miss</td> <td align="center">33</td> <td align="center">38</td> <td align="center">30</td> <td align="center">30</td> <td align="center">16</td> <td align="center">27</td> <td align="center">29.0</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">25</td> <td align="right">Oregon</td> <td align="center">49</td> <td align="center">26</td> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="center">28</td> <td align="center">49</td> <td align="center">11</td> <td align="center">29.3</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">
</td> <td align="right">Arizona State</td> <td align="center">18</td> <td align="center">22</td> <td align="center">31</td> <td align="center">32</td> <td align="center">28</td> <td align="center">45</td> <td align="center">29.3</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">27</td> <td align="right">No. Carolina</td> <td align="center">42</td> <td align="center">13</td> <td align="center">36</td> <td align="center">44</td> <td align="center">30</td> <td align="center">17</td> <td align="center">30.3</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">28</td> <td align="right">Penn State</td> <td align="center">21</td> <td align="center">93</td> <td align="center">14</td> <td align="center">25</td> <td align="center">6</td> <td align="center">24</td> <td align="center">30.5</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">29</td> <td align="right">Arizona</td> <td align="center">25</td> <td align="center">33</td> <td align="center">44</td> <td align="center">21</td> <td align="center">18</td> <td align="center">44</td> <td align="center">30.8</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">30</td> <td align="right">Virginia Tech</td> <td align="center">45</td> <td align="center">27</td> <td align="center">41</td> <td align="center">14</td> <td align="center">32</td> <td align="center">29</td> <td align="center">31.3</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">31</td> <td align="right">Clemson</td> <td align="center">22</td> <td align="center">67</td> <td align="center">53</td> <td align="center">17</td> <td align="center">15</td> <td align="center">16</td> <td align="center">31.7</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">32</td> <td align="right">Washington</td> <td align="center">19</td> <td align="center">23</td> <td align="center">19</td> <td align="center">66</td> <td align="center">35</td> <td align="center">36</td> <td align="center">33.0</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">33</td> <td align="right">N.C. State</td> <td align="center">34</td> <td align="center">7</td> <td align="center">28</td> <td align="center">27</td> <td align="center">54</td> <td align="center">49</td> <td align="center">33.2</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">34</td> <td align="right">Colorado</td> <td align="center">10</td> <td align="center">19</td> <td align="center">49</td> <td align="center">43</td> <td align="center">48</td> <td align="center">32</td> <td align="center">33.5</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">35</td> <td align="right">Miss. State</td> <td align="center">17</td> <td align="center">9</td> <td align="center">62</td> <td align="center">33</td> <td align="center">44</td> <td align="center">39</td> <td align="center">34.0</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">36</td> <td align="right">Missouri</td> <td align="center">29</td> <td align="center">28</td> <td align="center">29</td> <td align="center">39</td> <td align="center">47</td> <td align="center">33</td> <td align="center">34.2</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">37</td> <td align="right">Pittsburgh</td> <td align="center">39</td> <td align="center">34</td> <td align="center">48</td> <td align="center">38</td> <td align="center">21</td> <td align="center">26</td> <td align="center">34.3</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">38</td> <td align="right">Kansas State</td> <td align="center">14</td> <td align="center">60</td> <td align="center">18</td> <td align="center">36</td> <td align="center">41</td> <td align="center">38</td> <td align="center">34.5</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">39</td> <td align="right">Iowa</td> <td align="center">51</td> <td align="center">43</td> <td align="center">38</td> <td align="center">11</td> <td align="center">40</td> <td align="center">28</td> <td align="center">35.2</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">40</td> <td align="right">Illinois</td> <td align="center">41</td> <td align="center">30</td> <td align="center">50</td> <td align="center">51</td> <td align="center">30</td> <td align="center">20</td> <td align="center">37.0</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">41</td> <td align="right">Boston College</td> <td align="center">43</td> <td align="center">24</td> <td align="center">24</td> <td align="center">49</td> <td align="center">37</td> <td align="center">46</td> <td align="center">37.2</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">42</td> <td align="right">Mich. State</td> <td align="center">32</td> <td align="center">66</td> <td align="center">16</td> <td align="center">35</td> <td align="center">33</td> <td align="center">42</td> <td align="center">37.3</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">43</td> <td align="right">Purdue</td> <td align="center">38</td> <td align="center">31</td> <td align="center">20</td> <td align="center">29</td> <td align="center">50</td> <td align="center">59</td> <td align="center">37.8</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">44</td> <td align="right">West Virginia</td> <td align="center">37</td> <td align="center">46</td> <td align="center">47</td> <td align="center">31</td> <td align="center">52</td> <td align="center">23</td> <td align="center">39.3</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">45</td> <td align="right">Wisconsin</td> <td align="center">50</td> <td align="center">40</td> <td align="center">39</td> <td align="center">33</td> <td align="center">42</td> <td align="center">34</td> <td align="center">39.7</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">46</td> <td align="right">Texas Tech</td> <td align="center">48</td> <td align="center">44</td> <td align="center">33</td> <td align="center">37</td> <td align="center">25</td> <td align="center">52</td> <td align="center">39.8</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">47</td> <td align="right">Oregon State</td> <td align="center">52</td> <td align="center">51</td> <td align="center">26</td> <td align="center">47</td> <td align="center">43</td> <td align="center">47</td> <td align="center">44.3</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">48</td> <td align="right">Louisville</td> <td align="center">59</td> <td align="center">35</td> <td align="center">64</td> <td align="center">45</td> <td align="center">34</td> <td align="center">41</td> <td align="center">46.3</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">49</td> <td align="right">Stanford</td> <td align="center">54</td> <td align="center">25</td> <td align="center">57</td> <td align="center">41</td> <td align="center">53</td> <td align="center">51</td> <td align="center">46.8</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">50</td> <td align="right">Kansas</td> <td align="center">58</td> <td align="center">39</td> <td align="center">51</td> <td align="center">48</td> <td align="center">38</td> <td align="center">50</td> <td align="center">47.3</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">51</td> <td align="right">Rutgers</td> <td align="center">47</td> <td align="center">45</td> <td align="center">52</td> <td align="center">68</td> <td align="center">45</td> <td align="center">37</td> <td align="center">49.0</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">52</td> <td align="right">Iowa State</td> <td align="center">31</td> <td align="center">46</td> <td align="center">42</td> <td align="center">58</td> <td align="center">63</td> <td align="center">60</td> <td align="center">50.0</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">53</td> <td align="right">Syracuse</td> <td align="center">44</td> <td align="center">52</td> <td align="center">54</td> <td align="center">56</td> <td align="center">51</td> <td align="center">48</td> <td align="center">50.8</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">54</td> <td align="right">Georgia Tech</td> <td align="center">63</td> <td align="center">50</td> <td align="center">56</td> <td align="center">62</td> <td align="center">57</td> <td align="center">18</td> <td align="center">51.0</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">55</td> <td align="right">Wash. State</td> <td align="center">28</td> <td align="center">96</td> <td align="center">25</td> <td align="center">52</td> <td align="center">46</td> <td align="center">62</td> <td align="center">51.5</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">56</td> <td align="right">Minnesota</td> <td align="center">55</td> <td align="center">37</td> <td align="center">58</td> <td align="center">55</td> <td align="center">62</td> <td align="center">57</td> <td align="center">54.0</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">57</td> <td align="right">Kentucky</td> <td align="center">94</td> <td align="center">63</td> <td align="center">45</td> <td align="center">67</td> <td align="center">36</td> <td align="center">54</td> <td align="center">59.8</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">58</td> <td align="right">South Florida</td> <td align="center">90</td> <td align="center">61</td> <td align="center">43</td> <td align="center">50</td> <td align="center">59</td> <td align="center">58</td> <td align="center">60.2</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">59</td> <td align="right">Northwestern</td> <td align="center">65</td> <td align="center">69</td> <td align="center">78</td> <td align="center">52</td> <td align="center">81</td> <td align="center">53</td> <td align="center">66.3</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">60</td> <td align="right">Baylor</td> <td align="center">62</td> <td align="center">76</td> <td align="center">87</td> <td align="center">59</td> <td align="center">68</td> <td align="center">64</td> <td align="center">69.3</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">61</td> <td align="right">Duke</td> <td align="center">68</td> <td align="center">109</td> <td align="center">70</td> <td align="center">46</td> <td align="center">56</td> <td align="center">78</td> <td align="center">71.2</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">62</td> <td align="right">Vanderbilt</td> <td align="center">76</td> <td align="center">78</td> <td align="center">66</td> <td align="center">87</td> <td align="center">60</td> <td align="center">67</td> <td align="center">72.3</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">63</td> <td align="right">Indiana</td> <td align="center">81</td> <td align="center">59</td> <td align="center">59</td> <td align="center">72</td> <td align="center">84</td> <td align="center">97</td> <td align="center">75.3</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">64</td> <td align="right">Wake Forest</td> <td align="center">77</td> <td align="center">57</td> <td align="center">95</td> <td align="center">65</td> <td align="center">75</td> <td align="center">89</td> <td align="center">76.3</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">65</td> <td align="right">Connecticut</td> <td align="center">103</td> <td align="center">88</td> <td align="center">87</td> <td align="center">79</td> <td align="center">85</td> <td align="center">65</td> <td align="center">84.5</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">66</td> <td align="right">Cincinnati</td> <td align="center">100</td> <td align="center">92</td> <td align="center">80</td> <td align="center">94</td> <td align="center">102</td> <td align="center">89</td> <td align="center">92.8</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> Take a breath. Now, on-field winning percentage in relation to those rankings. A more careful study would divide winning percentages into rolling four or five-year periods and weight the results of certain seasons to account for the differences in a class as freshmen and sophomores and as upperclassmen, etc., but again, this is not intended to be that specific or time-consuming. The years 2002-2007 encompass the entire results of three classes ranked above and at least half the contributions of two more. If you long for more specificity, the numbers are there to sate your curiosity.
The records below are against BCS conference teams only (that is a control, since non-BCS teams weren’t included in the rankings) from the same years represented above, 2002-2007. Overachieving teams – those that were ten spots or more better in winning percentage than their recruiting rankings – are shaded in blue; underachieving teams – those that finished ten positions below their average recruiting ranking – are shaded in red. If the reader believes the rankings should be held to a higher standard than “within ten positions,” we have very different perceptions of the reasonable limits of scouting.

<table cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3"> <caption align="top">Winning % vs. BCS Schools, 2002-2007</caption> <tbody><tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(164, 74, 74) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">Rank</td> <td align="center">Team</td> <td align="center">Record</td> <td align="center">Win %</td> <td align="center">Rivals Rank</td> <td align="center">Difference</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">1</td> <td align="right">Southern Cal</td> <td align="center">63-8</td> <td align="center">.887</td> <td align="center">1</td> <td align="center">-</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(136, 155, 232) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">2</td> <td align="right">Ohio State</td> <td align="center">54-11</td> <td align="center">.831</td> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="center">+ 10</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">3</td> <td align="right">Oklahoma</td> <td align="center">54-13</td> <td align="center">.806</td> <td align="center">3</td> <td align="center">-</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">4</td> <td align="right">Texas</td> <td align="center">48-12</td> <td align="center">.800</td> <td align="center">7</td> <td align="center">+ 3</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">5</td> <td align="right">Georgia</td> <td align="center">52-15</td> <td align="center">.776</td> <td align="center">2</td> <td align="center">-3</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">6</td> <td align="right">LSU</td> <td align="center">48-15</td> <td align="center">.762</td> <td align="center">5</td> <td align="center">-1</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">7</td> <td align="right">Auburn</td> <td align="center">46-17</td> <td align="center">.730</td> <td align="center">10</td> <td align="center">+ 3</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(136, 155, 232) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">8</td> <td align="right">Louisville</td> <td align="center">31-13</td> <td align="center">.705</td> <td align="center">48</td> <td align="center">+ 40</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">9</td> <td align="right">Michigan</td> <td align="center">45-19</td> <td align="center">.703</td> <td align="center">11</td> <td align="center">+ 2</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(136, 155, 232) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">10</td> <td align="right">W. Virginia</td> <td align="center">40-18</td> <td align="center">.690</td> <td align="center">44</td> <td align="center">+ 34</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(136, 155, 232) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">11</td> <td align="right">Virginia Tech</td> <td align="center">41-20</td> <td align="center">.672</td> <td align="center">30</td> <td align="center">+ 19</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="right">Miami</td> <td align="center">40-22</td> <td align="center">.645</td> <td align="center">8</td> <td align="center">-4</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">13</td> <td align="right">Florida</td> <td align="center">40-23</td> <td align="center">.635</td> <td align="center">4</td> <td align="center">-9</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(136, 155, 232) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">14</td> <td align="right">Wisconsin</td> <td align="center">38-22</td> <td align="center">.633</td> <td align="center">45</td> <td align="center">+ 31</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(136, 155, 232) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">15</td> <td align="right">Boston Coll.</td> <td align="center">35-21</td> <td align="center">.625</td> <td align="center">41</td> <td align="center">+ 26</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">16</td> <td align="right">California</td> <td align="center">38-23</td> <td align="center">.623</td> <td align="center">18</td> <td align="center">+ 2</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(136, 155, 232) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">17</td> <td align="right">Iowa</td> <td align="center">39-24</td> <td align="center">.619</td> <td align="center">39</td> <td align="center">+ 21</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(232, 136, 136) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">18</td> <td align="right">Florida State</td> <td align="center">44-28</td> <td align="center">.611</td> <td align="center">6</td> <td align="center">-12</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(232, 136, 136) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">19</td> <td align="right">Tennessee</td> <td align="center">38-25</td> <td align="center">.603</td> <td align="center">9</td> <td align="center">-10</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">20</td> <td align="right">Virginia</td> <td align="center">37-25</td> <td align="center">.597</td> <td align="center">19</td> <td align="center">-1</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(136, 155, 232) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">21</td> <td align="right">Texas Tech</td> <td align="center">34-24</td> <td align="center">.586</td> <td align="center">46</td> <td align="center">+ 25</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(136, 155, 232) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">22</td> <td align="right">Oregon State</td> <td align="center">32-24</td> <td align="center">.571</td> <td align="center">47</td> <td align="center">+ 25</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(136, 155, 232) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">23</td> <td align="right">Georgia Tech</td> <td align="center">37-29</td> <td align="center">.561</td> <td align="center">54</td> <td align="center">+ 31</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">24</td> <td align="right">Oregon</td> <td align="center">34-28</td> <td align="center">.548</td> <td align="center">25</td> <td align="center">+ 1</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">25</td> <td align="right">Arizona State</td> <td align="center">35-29</td> <td align="center">.547</td> <td align="center">25</td> <td align="center">-</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">26</td> <td align="right">Clemson</td> <td align="center">35-29</td> <td align="center">.547</td> <td align="center">31</td> <td align="center">+ 5</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(232, 136, 136) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">27</td> <td align="right">Notre Dame</td> <td align="center">33-28</td> <td align="center">.541</td> <td align="center">14</td> <td align="center">-13</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">28</td> <td align="right">Missouri</td> <td align="center">31-27</td> <td align="center">.535</td> <td align="center">36</td> <td align="center">+ 8</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">29</td> <td align="right">Maryland</td> <td align="center">32-28</td> <td align="center">.533</td> <td align="center">22</td> <td align="center">-7</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">30</td> <td align="right">UCLA</td> <td align="center">33-29</td> <td align="center">.532</td> <td align="center">21</td> <td align="center">-9</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">31</td> <td align="right">Penn State</td> <td align="center">32-29</td> <td align="center">.525</td> <td align="center">28</td> <td align="center">-3</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(232, 136, 136) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">32</td> <td align="right">Nebraska</td> <td align="center">31-31</td> <td align="center">.500</td> <td align="center">17</td> <td align="center">-15</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(136, 155, 232) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">
</td> <td align="right">Purdue</td> <td align="center">32-32</td> <td align="center">.500</td> <td align="center">43</td> <td align="center">+ 11</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(136, 155, 232) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">34</td> <td align="right">Wake Forest</td> <td align="center">31-33</td> <td align="center">.484</td> <td align="center">64</td> <td align="center">+ 30</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(232, 136, 136) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">35</td> <td align="right">Arkansas</td> <td align="center">28-31</td> <td align="center">.475</td> <td align="center">20</td> <td align="center">-15</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(232, 136, 136) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">36</td> <td align="right">Alabama</td> <td align="center">27-30</td> <td align="center">.474</td> <td align="center">16</td> <td align="center">-20</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">37</td> <td align="right">Kansas State</td> <td align="center">27-29</td> <td align="center">.466</td> <td align="center">38</td> <td align="center">+ 1</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">38</td> <td align="right">Pittsburgh</td> <td align="center">25-29</td> <td align="center">.463</td> <td align="center">37</td> <td align="center">+ 1</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(136, 155, 232) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">39</td> <td align="right">Wash. State</td> <td align="center">27-32</td> <td align="center">.458</td> <td align="center">55</td> <td align="center">+ 16</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">40</td> <td align="right">N.C. State</td> <td align="center">26-31</td> <td align="center">.456</td> <td align="center">33</td> <td align="center">-7</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(136, 155, 232) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">41</td> <td align="right">South Florida</td> <td align="center">17-21</td> <td align="center">.447</td> <td align="center">58</td> <td align="center">+ 17</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(232, 136, 136) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">42</td> <td align="right">Oklahoma State</td> <td align="center">25-31</td> <td align="center">.446</td> <td align="center">23</td> <td align="center">-19</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">43</td> <td align="right">Colorado</td> <td align="center">29-37</td> <td align="center">.439</td> <td align="center">34</td> <td align="center">-9</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(136, 155, 232) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">44</td> <td align="right">Northwestern</td> <td align="center">24-33</td> <td align="center">.421</td> <td align="center">59</td> <td align="center">+ 15</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(136, 155, 232) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">45</td> <td align="right">Cincinnati</td> <td align="center">15-21</td> <td align="center">.417</td> <td align="center">66</td> <td align="center">+ 21</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(232, 136, 136) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">
</td> <td align="right">So. Carolina</td> <td align="center">25-35</td> <td align="center">.417</td> <td align="center">13</td> <td align="center">-32</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(232, 136, 136) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">47</td> <td align="right">Texas A&M</td> <td align="center">24-34</td> <td align="center">.414</td> <td align="center">14</td> <td align="center">-33</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">48</td> <td align="right">Minnesota</td> <td align="center">22-33</td> <td align="center">.400</td> <td align="center">56</td> <td align="center">+ 8</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">49</td> <td align="right">Mich. State</td> <td align="center">24-38</td> <td align="center">.387</td> <td align="center">42</td> <td align="center">-7</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(136, 155, 232) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">50</td> <td align="right">UConn</td> <td align="center">17-28</td> <td align="center">.378</td> <td align="center">65</td> <td align="center">+ 15</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">51</td> <td align="right">Kansas</td> <td align="center">20-33</td> <td align="center">.377</td> <td align="center">50</td> <td align="center">-1</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">52</td> <td align="right">Rutgers</td> <td align="center">18-31</td> <td align="center">.367</td> <td align="center">51</td> <td align="center">-1</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">53</td> <td align="right">Kentucky</td> <td align="center">21-39</td> <td align="center">.350</td> <td align="center">57</td> <td align="center">+ 4</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(232, 136, 136) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">54</td> <td align="right">Ole Miss</td> <td align="center">18-37</td> <td align="center">.327</td> <td align="center">24</td> <td align="center">-30</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">55</td> <td align="right">Iowa State</td> <td align="center">18-38</td> <td align="center">.321</td> <td align="center">52</td> <td align="center">-3</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(232, 136, 136) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">56</td> <td align="right">North Carolina</td> <td align="center">18-45</td> <td align="center">.286</td> <td align="center">27</td> <td align="center">-29</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(232, 136, 136) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">57</td> <td align="right">Washington</td> <td align="center">16-43</td> <td align="center">.271</td> <td align="center">32</td> <td align="center">-24</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(232, 136, 136) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">58</td> <td align="right">Arizona</td> <td align="center">14-42</td> <td align="center">.259</td> <td align="center">29</td> <td align="center">-29</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(232, 136, 136) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">59</td> <td align="right">Stanford</td> <td align="center">13-44</td> <td align="center">.228</td> <td align="center">49</td> <td align="center">-10</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(232, 136, 136) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">60</td> <td align="right">Illinois</td> <td align="center">13-47</td> <td align="center">.217</td> <td align="center">40</td> <td align="center">-20</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">61</td> <td align="right">Syracuse</td> <td align="center">13-44</td> <td align="center">.228</td> <td align="center">53</td> <td align="center">-8</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">62</td> <td align="right">Vanderbilt</td> <td align="center">11-45</td> <td align="center">.196</td> <td align="center">62</td> <td align="center">-</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">63</td> <td align="right">Indiana</td> <td align="center">11-46</td> <td align="center">.193</td> <td align="center">63</td> <td align="center">-</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(232, 136, 136) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">64</td> <td align="right">Miss. State</td> <td align="center">9-43</td> <td align="center">.173</td> <td align="center">35</td> <td align="center">-29</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">65</td> <td align="right">Baylor</td> <td align="center">8-42</td> <td align="center">.160</td> <td align="center">60</td> <td align="center">-5</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">66</td> <td align="right">Duke</td> <td align="center">4-54</td> <td align="center">.069</td> <td align="center">61</td> <td align="center">-5</td> </tr> </tbody></table> The result is outstanding for the recruiting rankings at the top – five of the top seven in winning percentage were in Rivals’ top seven in the recruting averages, all of the recruiting top ten were in the top 20 on the field, and Rivals was exactly right or within a scant three positions of the on-field results of Southern Cal, Oklahoma, Texas, Georgia, LSU, Auburn, Michigan, California, Virginia, Oregon, Arizona State, Penn State, Kansas State, Pittsburgh, Kansas, Rutgers Iowa State, Vanderbilt and Indiana.
It was within nine positions, though, of only 33 teams, exactly half the sample; 16 teams had significantly better winning percentages than their recruiting rankings would predict, 17 teams had a significantly worse winning percentage. Based on that alone, a skeptic could still say, “The rankings have exactly the same chance of being wrong as they do of being right - they are unreliable.”
On that point, you may have noticed some conference-specific imbalances in the number of teams appearing in red or blue – in the SEC, for example, half the conference “underperformed,” and not one single team finished appreciably better than its recruiting rankings would suggest. Of the seven “overachieving” teams in the top 20 in winning percentage, on the other hand, all either are or were at some point in the sample members of the Big East (Louisville, West Virginia, Virginia Tech, Boston College) or Big Ten (Ohio State, Wisconsin, Iowa), two conferences loaded with overachievers:

<table cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3"> <caption align="top">Overahievers vs. Underachievers By Conference</caption> <tbody><tr></tr><tr style=""> <td align="center">
</td> <td align="center">ACC</td> <td align="center">Big East</td> <td align="center">Big Ten</td> <td align="center">Big 12</td> <td align="center">Pac Ten</td> <td align="center">SEC</td> <td align="center">Total</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">Within Rivals Rank</td> <td align="center">6</td> <td align="center">3</td> <td align="center">6</td> <td align="center">7</td> <td align="center">5</td> <td align="center">6</td> <td align="center">33</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(232, 136, 136) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">Worse Than Rank</td> <td align="center">2</td> <td align="center">-</td> <td align="center">1</td> <td align="center">4</td> <td align="center">3</td> <td align="center">6</td> <td align="center">16</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(136, 155, 232) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">Better Than Rank</td> <td align="center">4</td> <td align="center">5</td> <td align="center">4</td> <td align="center">1</td> <td align="center">2</td> <td align="center">-</td> <td align="center">16</td> </tr> </tbody></table> Either the SEC and Big 12 are massively overrated in the recruiting rankings and the Big Ten and Big East are massively underrated, or something else is going on.

<table cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3"> <caption align="top">Underachievers vs. Higher/Equal-Ranked Opponents</caption> <tbody><tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(164, 74, 74) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">
</td> <td align="center">Overall</td> <td align="center">vs. Higher/Equal-Ranked</td> <td align="center">% of Total Losses</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">Florida State</td> <td align="center">44-28</td> <td align="center">4-10</td> <td align="center">35.7</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">Tennessee</td> <td align="center">38-25</td> <td align="center">16-18</td> <td align="center">72.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">Notre Dame</td> <td align="center">33-28</td> <td align="center">6-12</td> <td align="center">42.9</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">Nebraska</td> <td align="center">31-31</td> <td align="center">5-13</td> <td align="center">41.9</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">Arkansas</td> <td align="center">28-31</td> <td align="center">19-24</td> <td align="center">77.4</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">Alabama</td> <td align="center">27-30</td> <td align="center">9-25</td> <td align="center">83.3</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">Okla. State</td> <td align="center">25-31</td> <td align="center">8-20</td> <td align="center">64.5</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">So. Carolina</td> <td align="center">25-35</td> <td align="center">7-26</td> <td align="center">74.3</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">Texas A&M</td> <td align="center">24-34</td> <td align="center">4-15</td> <td align="center">44.1</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">Ole Miss</td> <td align="center">18-37</td> <td align="center">8-27</td> <td align="center">73.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">No. Carolina</td> <td align="center">18-45</td> <td align="center">7-19</td> <td align="center">42.2</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">Washington</td> <td align="center">16-43</td> <td align="center">6-34</td> <td align="center">79.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">Arizona</td> <td align="center">14-42</td> <td align="center">10-28</td> <td align="center">66.7</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">Stanford</td> <td align="center">13-44</td> <td align="center">13-44</td> <td align="center">100.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">Illinois</td> <td align="center">13-47</td> <td align="center">6-34</td> <td align="center">72.3</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">Miss. State</td> <td align="center">9-43</td> <td align="center">6-36</td> <td align="center">83.7</td> </tr> </tbody></table> For eleven of the 17 “underachievers,” the result is at least partially – in some cases, like Tennessee, Arkansas, South Carolina and Alabama, which all have outstanding records against teams ranked below them in the recruiting rankings – because they were playing so many teams stocked with, according to Rivals, equal of better talent (“equal” in this case being defined as within 5-8 slots of the average ranking over six years); for all eleven, those allegedly more talented teams make up a huge majority of the losses. Their lack of success is predictable because of their schedule. Even teams like Arizona, Illinois, Washington and Mississippi State, which have losing records against less-talented BCS teams since 2002, count the overwhelming majority of their defeats to teams with better or extremely comparable talent based on the rankings.
The inverse is somewhat true in looking at teams that won significantly more than their recruiting ranking would suggest – “higher-ranked” in this case refers to teams with an average Rivals rank over the last six years at least six spots higher than the team in question; it does not include “equals,” since there is no “overachieving” at play against equals:

<table cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3"> <caption align="top">Overachievers vs. Higher-Ranked Opponents</caption> <tbody><tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(164, 74, 74) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">
</td> <td align="center">Overall</td> <td align="center">vs. Higher-Ranked</td> <td align="center">% of Total Wins</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">Ohio State</td> <td align="center">54-11</td> <td align="center">2-3</td> <td align="center">3.7</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">Louisville</td> <td align="center">31-13</td> <td align="center">8-3</td> <td align="center">25.8</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">W. Virginia</td> <td align="center">40-18</td> <td align="center">14-10</td> <td align="center">35.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">Virginia Tech</td> <td align="center">41-20</td> <td align="center">15-9</td> <td align="center">36.6</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">Wisconsin</td> <td align="center">38-22</td> <td align="center">14-10</td> <td align="center">36.8</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">Boston Coll.</td> <td align="center">35-21</td> <td align="center">20-11</td> <td align="center">57.1</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">Iowa</td> <td align="center">39-24</td> <td align="center">9-11</td> <td align="center">23.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">Texas Tech</td> <td align="center">34-24</td> <td align="center">22-23</td> <td align="center">64.7</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">Oregon State</td> <td align="center">32-34</td> <td align="center">22-21</td> <td align="center">68.8</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">Georgia Tech</td> <td align="center">37-29</td> <td align="center">24-27</td> <td align="center">64.9</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">Purdue</td> <td align="center">32-32</td> <td align="center">9-16</td> <td align="center">28.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">Wake Forest</td> <td align="center">31-33</td> <td align="center">21-32</td> <td align="center">67.7</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">Wash. State</td> <td align="center">27-32</td> <td align="center">19-27</td> <td align="center">70.4</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">So. Florida</td> <td align="center">17-21</td> <td align="center">11-16</td> <td align="center">64.7</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">N'western</td> <td align="center">24-33</td> <td align="center">18-27</td> <td align="center">60.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">Cincinnati</td> <td align="center">15-21</td> <td align="center">8-19</td> <td align="center">53.3</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">UConn</td> <td align="center">17-28</td> <td align="center">10-23</td> <td align="center">58.8</td> </tr> </tbody></table> Not many teams were ranked appreciably higher than Ohio State, and the Buckeyes have played almost none of them. Behind OSU and Michigan, the rest of the Big Ten was ranked in the middle of the pack: Iowa, Illinois, Michigan State, Purdue and Wisconsin occupied spots 39, 40, 42, 43 and 45 in the aggregate rankings. The winners of that group (Wisconsin and Iowa) are therefore “overachievers” in the long haul while facing very few teams that were thought to have superior talent. The same thing occurs in the Big East: West Virginia and Louisville, despite good record against higher-ranked teams, have feasted overwhelmingly on supposedly less-talented teams, because that’s who occupies the rest of the conference. South Florida, UConn and Cincinnati have overachieved – it is not possible to underachieve from the very bottom of the rankings – but are still below .500 against BCS conference schools overall and well below that mark against those considered more talented in the Rivals rankings. All of them, without exception, are more successful against equally or less-talented teams.
Boston College, Georgia Tech, Texas Tech and Oregon State have a much stronger record as “overachievers” – they play more higher-ranked teams and are all at about .500 against that “superior” talent. Wake Forest is on pace to join that group after the last two seasons, especially if the ACC remains so friendly to conservative, defensive teams, but like their fellow recruiting bottom-dwellers in the Big East, their success is a result of beating teams in the middle of the pack, almost never (Wake’s two-year streak over Florida State, one of the real underachievers, is an exception) against teams at the top.
So: Rivals was very, very good at picking the top teams – of the top 25 winningest teams of the last six years, all were either pegged in or very near their respective positions by the recruiting rankings or achieved them by winning against overwhelmingly lower-ranked opposition; of the top 25 teams according to the recruiting rankings, 18 are in the top 30 in winning percentage. This is to be expected when you spend most of your time distinguishing between a small number of high-profile, four and five-star guys but can’t possibly make the same level of distinction among a much larger number of two and three-star prospects with more variability among them than the star-based rankings are designed to show. If Rivals indicates a team’s talent is good, it’s probably right; if it indicates it’s just average, or below average, that team probably still has a shot – but only to an extent. You’d be wrong if you cast your lot with the gurus completely, and wronger if you ignored them.
To look at this list and conclude “Recruiting rankings are nonsense because Florida State and Wake Forest” is obtuse and shortsighted, as is the suggestion that the players Florida State brought in weren’t really that good, just artificially inflated by the fact they were being recruited by Florida State – “they just rate the recruits of the bigtime programs higher.” In one isolated case, this could be true, but given the larger correlation of “on paper” rankings to “on field” success, it’s an argument that’s wrong on its face to the point of absurdity: it suggests that successful programs just are successful, regardless of the players they recruit. If the gurus followed the larger schools’ assessments to a fault, if USC was being ranked at the top of the lists simply because it was USC, even if it was signing the same players as UCLA, the Trojans would obviously be closer to UCLA’s results. Substitute “USC” and “UCLA” in that sentence for an overwhelming majority of the possible comparisons between teams who are not close to one another in the rankings. It's not groundbreaking because it's obvously true: Good teams are good because they recruit good players, and recruiting rankings are more accurate than their reputation in which players are likely to be good, and to what extent. It’s not perfect, but it’s not random. What the gurus get wrong pales in comparison to what they get right, and even much of what they get wrong has more to do with injuries, academics, boneheadedness, competition from other hotshots and coaching – see the immediate bounce from mediocrity to dominance at Florida under Urban Meyer, Georgia under Mark Richt, Texas under Mack Brown, USC under Pete Carroll, Oklahoma under Bob Stoops, Ohio State under Jim Tressel, Auburn under Tommy Tuberville and LSU under Nick Saban in the last decade for evidence that even with raw talent on hand, coaching matters – than missing on the talent. The rankings are a serviceable baseline for expectation.
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Big Ten Auditing: Crystal Ball, Revisited
By SMQ
Posted on Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 06:38:55 PM EDT


One obstacle to assessing the final verdicts on the Big Ten: a lot of ties. Ties are a total cop-out in the prediction racket but often skew everything in the end. From the preseason consensus of 18 publications at Stassen.com, from most underrated to most overrated:

<table cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3"> <caption align="top">Big Ten Preseason Consensus vs. Eventual Reality</caption> <tbody><tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(164, 74, 74) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="left">
</td> <td align="left">Preseason</td> <td align="left">Actual Finish</td> <td align="left">+/-</td> <td align="left">Rightest</td> <td align="left">Wrongest</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Illinois</td> <td align="center">7th</td> <td align="left">T-2nd (6-2)</td> <td align="left">+ 5</td> <td align="left">USA Today (5th)</td> <td align="left">S&S, J. Feist (11th)</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="left">Indiana</td> <td align="center">11th</td> <td align="left">T-7th (3-5)</td> <td align="left">+ 4</td> <td align="left">Athlon (7th)</td> <td align="left">Five 11th Place Picks</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">N'western</td> <td align="center">10th</td> <td align="left">T-7th (3-5)</td> <td align="left">+ 3</td> <td align="left">Eight 8th Place Picks</td> <td align="left">Three 11th Place Picks</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="left">Mich. State</td> <td align="center">9th</td> <td align="left">T-7th (3-5)</td> <td align="left">+ 2</td> <td align="left">Street&Smith (7th)</td> <td align="left">Three 11th Place Picks</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Ohio State</td> <td align="center">3rd</td> <td align="left">1st (7-1)</td> <td align="left">+ 2</td> <td align="left">CPA, BlueRibbon (2nd)</td> <td align="left">Jim Feist (5th)</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="left">Iowa</td> <td align="center">5th</td> <td align="left">T-5th (4-4)</td> <td align="left">-</td> <td align="left">Eight 5th Place Picks</td> <td align="left">GamePlan (7th)</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Michigan</td> <td align="center">1st</td> <td align="left">T-2nd (6-2)</td> <td align="left">-1</td> <td align="left">Six 2nd Place Picks</td> <td align="left">Twelve 1st Place Picks</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="left">Penn State</td> <td align="center">4th</td> <td align="left">T-5th (4-4)</td> <td align="left">-1</td> <td align="left">Four 5th Place Picks</td> <td align="left">Phil Steele (T-1st)</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Purdue</td> <td align="center">6th</td> <td align="left">T-7th (3-5)</td> <td align="left">-1</td> <td align="left">Lindys, USAT (7th)</td> <td align="left">Six 5th Place Picks</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="left">Wisconsin</td> <td align="center">2nd</td> <td align="left">4th (5-3)</td> <td align="left">-2</td> <td align="left">SureFire (4th)</td> <td align="left">Seven 1st Place Picks</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Minnesota</td> <td align="center">8th</td> <td align="left">11th (0-8)</td> <td align="left">-3</td> <td align="left">Four 11th Place Picks</td> <td align="left">Seven 7th Place Picks</td> </tr> </tbody></table> Be wary of the "underrated" nature of Indiana, Michigan State and Northwestern up there, each of which I have listed as tied for seventh place but which also, by definition, tied for eighth, ninth and tenth place, too. The true bolt from the blue - besides mythical championship finalist Ohio State, which not one single outlet predicted would win the conference with an entirely rebuilt set of offensive skill players - was Illinois, previous winner of two conference games in three years, a leap a certain someone saw coming way back in June:

  • The seven league losses last year [in 2006] were by an average of 8.5 points, including a two-point loss to Indiana, touchdown losses to Ohio State and Wisconsin and close games with Purdue, Penn State and Northwestern that got away late. They ran the ball very well and were solidly in the middle of the pack defensively. Steele points out in bold print that the Illini actually outgained foes on the year by an average of 346-310!! as evidence that, down for down, Illinois held up just fine with the average teams in the conference, and a few of the really good ones. It's getting really familiar around here for Florida fans justifiably skeptical of all things Zook, but this fall is about being competent enough with experience to clean up those two or three plays that make the difference in last place and .500 with a spot in the Insight Bowl. If this team can't at least threaten that kind of improvement with every conceivable wind of momentum at its back, Zook should be banished from the profession.
    - - -
Does the early adopter approach to the Illini bandwagon get me off the hook for only picking them seventh in the conference in August? Yes, partially, because even then I pointed out: "...if there's any team down here worth taking a gamble on, it's this one." A Rose Bowl prediction in the summer would have been beyond silly, but so were the number of outlets that refused to see the writing on the wall by holding a clearly improving outfit down at tenth or eleventh.
NUCVHPWTREGXXZN.20070309061508.jpg

Fortunately for him, Tim Brewster's complete Big Ten predictions never reached publication.
- - -

A few teams with a reasonable degree of optimism based on the reason past were predictably mediocre: Penn State did not challenge for the conference championship, Wisconsin defied most everyone's expectations by failing to reach a BCS bowl, Purdue's long streak of futility against ultimately winning teams outside of the MAC (based on final record) reached 16 games and Iowa's persistent failures on offense allowed me to bask again in the "Purdue Rule," which holds that any team whose greatest asset is the teams it doesn't play - in Iowa's case, as in touted-but-disappointing Purdue's in 2005, that meant missing Ohio State and Michigan - is a team to be regarded with maximum cynicism. The Hawkeyes were fortunate to finish 4-4 in-conference, preventing Illinois from a conference championship in what now looks like a great upset and winning a game against Michigan State in which Iowa's Jake Christensen completed three passes for fewer than 30 yards in regulation. No team, though, fell harder than Minnesota, which began the Time Brewster Era by parading turf from the Rose Bowl around the Minnesota practice facility, immediately lost two of its first three games to Bowling Green and Florida Atlantic, later was rolled for 394 yards rushing by I-AA North Dakota State en route to fielding by far the worst statistical defense in the nation and counting an overtime comeback against the Ohio-based Miami as its only win. Maybe more surprising, given the Gophers' success through the early and middle years of the decade prior to Glen Mason's firing, is that so many pundits saw the Gophers' fall coming a mile away:
  • Steele is especially obsessive about the "turnover=turnaround" thing, on which Minnesota thrived completely - 6-0 in the regular season when coming out on the right side of the giveaways, including a 10-9 thriller over North Dakota State in a game the Gophers were outgained by 130 yards but wound up plus-two in turnovers -marking them as an every-down failure destined to reap the just karmic desserts that accompany being physically handled again by the rest of the conference; in that regard, according to another of Steele's obsessive indicators, they had the worst yardage deficit in the Big Ten, by 92 yards per league game. I.E., Minnesota already played like a last place team most of last year, especially on defense, and its record with a new quarterback in a more competitive environment, minus the fortune of a soaring takeaway margin, is likely to reflect that now.
    - - -
It was only for lack of other options that I reluctantly joined the Gopher-hating chorus, but at least I was prescient about the historically putrid defense:
  • ...they're trotting out a noob quarterback and probably the most consistently awful defense in the league, one that allowed an amazing 456 yards per conference game last year and another 1,100 total in losses to Cal (where Dunbar was coordinator) early and Texas Tech in the wild bowl comeback. It took a lot of turnovers to overcome that kind of futility week in and week out, more turnovers than anyone could possibly expect to bounce the same way again. If the offense hits on all cylinders - again, possibly starting a freshman quarterback, that's on the far, far side of `optimistic' - its production will have to be consistently good enough for somewhere in the neighborhood of five touchdowns against any competent opponent to overcome the defense. No potential bowl team can live like that.
    - - -
The turnover margin this year flopped from a national-best plus-18 in 2006 to a conference-worst minus-15 in '07, and the wins plummeted accordingly. The buzzkill, obviously, was Michigan, which very few prognosticators saw failing to win the conference and none saw dropping below Ohio State; if any team was going to knock the Wolverines from the frontrunner's seat, it was supposed to be Wisconsin. But then, all predictions re: Michigan were burned after the first Saturday of the season, so who's counting?
 
Surprise: MSU's Bobo opts for draft

Posted: Tuesday January 22, 2008 10:10PM; Updated: Wednesday January 23, 2008 11:45AM

JACKSON, Miss. (AP) -- Mississippi State junior defensive back Demario Bobo declared for the NFL draft earlier this month, unbeknownst to school officials.
Bobo and two other players -- linebacker Anthony Littlejohn and cornerback Keon Humprhies -- who would have been fifth-year seniors left the team amicably last week when coach Sylvester Croom told them they would not make the 70-man travel roster next season.
The deadline for juniors to declare for the draft was Jan. 15.
Bobo played in 12 games, starting two last season. He finished with 35 tackles, two interceptions and two forced fumbles.
Bobo is among 53 juniors who have entered the upcoming April 26-27 draft.
 
everythingthatsgreen said:
well, when you give out scholarships to recruits GF's, it makes life a whole lot easier.


:cheers:
Click to expand...

Smart SEC recruiting IMO...:36_11_6:

Although Carl Moore is going to be a STUD WR next year and I'd have seen no problem with giving his GF a scholarship to be a cheerleader...ya gotta cut us some slack since she is a starting member of the gymnastics squad (and also was @ UCLA)...:cheers:

Mully
 
MrMulligan said:
Smart SEC recruiting IMO...:36_11_6:

Although Carl Moore is going to be a STUD WR next year and I'd have seen no problem with giving his GF a scholarship to be a cheerleader...ya gotta cut us some slack since she is a starting member of the gymnastics squad (and also was @ UCLA)...:cheers:

Mully
Click to expand...


Carl Moore is going to be an instant impact WR for you guys with great height, hands, and speed. That offense just took another friggen 2 steps up, wow. Then you have Moody in the backfield, wtf you going to score a game, 65?

Scary what that offense will have, just plain scary.

On top of B2B Recruiting titles, oh my
 
SEC Auditing: Crystal Ball, Revisited
By SMQ
Posted on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 04:41:43 PM EDT


Previous Crystal Balls, Revisited:
ACC • Big East • Big 12 • Big Ten • Pac Ten
- - -
Go through the conferences listed above, and none of them hew as near to preseason form as the SEC, where - residual and internal hype aside - even the supposed duds (Alabama, South Carolina) weren't all that disappointing based on where they were actually pegged in August; collectively, they nailed almost half the conference in its exact finish. From the preseason consensus of 18 publications at Stassen.com, from most underrated to most overrated:

<table cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3"> <caption align="top">SEC Preseason Consensus vs. Eventual Reality</caption> <tbody><tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(164, 74, 74) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="left">
</td> <td align="left">Preseason</td> <td align="left">Actual Finish</td> <td align="left">+/-</td> <td align="left">Rightest</td> <td align="left">Wrongest</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Miss. State</td> <td align="left">6th W</td> <td align="left">T-3rd W (4-4)</td> <td align="left">+ 3</td> <td align="left">Seven 5th Place Picks</td> <td align="left">Eleven 6th Place Picks</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="left">Georgia</td> <td align="left">3rd E</td> <td align="left">T-1st E (6-2)</td> <td align="left">+ 2</td> <td align="left">Three 1st Place Picks</td> <td align="left">Jim Feist, SureFire (4th)</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Alabama</td> <td align="left">4th W</td> <td align="left">T-3rd W (4-4)</td> <td align="left">+ 1</td> <td align="left">Six 3rd Place Picks</td> <td align="left">Four 2nd Place Picks</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="left">Kentucky</td> <td align="left">5th E</td> <td align="left">T-4th E (3-5)</td> <td align="left">+ 1</td> <td align="left">Sixteen 5th Place Picks</td> <td align="left">Four 9th Place Picks</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Tennessee</td> <td align="left">2nd E</td> <td align="left">T-1st E (6-2)</td> <td align="left">+ 1</td> <td align="left">Three 1st Place Picks</td> <td align="left">Phil Steele (T-3rd)</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="left">Arkansas</td> <td align="left">3rd W</td> <td align="left">T-3rd W (4-4)</td> <td align="left">-</td> <td align="left">Six 3rd Place Picks</td> <td align="left">Six 2nd Place Picks</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Auburn</td> <td align="left">2nd W</td> <td align="left">2nd W (5-3)</td> <td align="left">-</td> <td align="left">Seven 2nd Place Picks</td> <td align="left">P. Steele, SportsForm (4th)</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="left">LSU</td> <td align="left">1st W</td> <td align="left">1st W (6-2)</td> <td align="left">-</td> <td align="left">Everybody except . . . </td> <td align="left">Jim Feist (2nd)</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">So. Carolina</td> <td align="left">4th E</td> <td align="left">T-4th E (3-5)</td> <td align="left">-</td> <td align="left">Fifteen 4th Place Picks</td> <td align="left">Phil Steele (T-1st)</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="left">Vanderbilt</td> <td align="left">6th E</td> <td align="left">6th E (2-6)</td> <td align="left">-</td> <td align="left">Fourteen 6th Place Picks</td> <td align="left">Three 5th Place Picks</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Ole Miss</td> <td align="left">5th W</td> <td align="left">6th W (0-8)</td> <td align="left">-1</td> <td align="left">Seven 6th Place Picks</td> <td align="left">Eleven 5th Place Picks</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="left">Florida</td> <td align="left">1st E</td> <td align="left">3rd E (5-3)</td> <td align="left">-2</td> <td align="left">Phil Steele, CFN (3rd)</td> <td align="left">Twelve 1st Place Picks</td> </tr> </tbody></table> The surest bets in the SEC were for LSU and against Ole Miss and Vanderbilt, which almost everyone hit, but the combination of ties and wide variability among the consensus in general ensured that only Mississippi State and, to a lesser extent, Georgia were really surprises. About the former Bulldogs, like everyone else, this space was completely wrong:
  • The best that can happen is the `Dogs beats the Conference USA fare, pull an upset somewhere along the way and go into the Egg Bowl hoping to graduate from three wins, where they've been stuck the last three years, to four. If Croom needs to demonstrate a step forward, that's his ticket.
    - - -
Or he could lead unlikely upsets of Auburn, Kentucky and Alabama and come from behind in the Egg Bowl and Liberty Bowl and wind up voted coach of the year. Either way.
croom.jpg

Dang, coach, sorry. Give a brother a break.
- - -

Elsewhere, though, I was much wronger about the rest of the conference than the consensus: I stayed off the South Carolina bandwagon because of USC's perpetually sorry line play, thank goodness, but jumped on Arkansas' as well as riding Tennesse fourth in the East, Kentucky sixth and Auburn fourth in the West, with strong prejudice against the lackluster Tiger offense:
  • This team was very close to the edge last year, and fell off in a couple games, both at home, against true freshman quarterbacks. Relatively, though, it probably got off easier than it's likely to with the same kind of problems on offense.
    - - -
The offense was as atrocious as expected, maybe moreso - 97th in total offense, 84th in scoring, leading directly to the end of revolutionary West Coast guru Al Borges' stint in the South - but the defense overall rivaled LSU's as the best in the conference and kicked enough ass to finish in the top two in the division for the
fourth year in a row despite its worst record in-conference (5-3) and out (9-4) since 2003, the year the boosters tried to run Tommy Tuberville off in favor of Bobby Petrino. Given the expectations of that very talented team, and the inexperience of this one, it probably won't happen again. Florida: a disappointment? Hard to argue about a team that finished 13th in the final AP poll, just six positions behind its championship-inflated preseason rank in the top ten. By my own estimation, I had Florida 14th at the start of the season and 9th at the end, so - although UF finished third in the East when I and most everyone else had the Gators repeating as division champ - it's more than Georgia and Tennessee significantly exceeded expectations. Georgia was the last team on my preseason ballot, and Tennessee was not even waiting; they both ended the year in the top ten. Aside from LSU, the totally inexperienced East was a more compelling, competitive race, the exact opposite of what I guessed. Vanderbilt, Kentucky and South Carolina missed their best chance to make a significant move; other than Tennessee's new quarterback, the East's Big Three are loaded entering `08.
 
Pac Ten Auditing: Crystal Ball, Revisited
By SMQ
Posted on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 02:49:35 PM EDT


Past USC at the top and Stanford and Washington at the bottom, the Pac Ten has been the toughest conference to predict top-to-bottom since the Trojans' five-year reign began in 2003 - there is no difference year-to-year between Arizona State, Cal, Oregon, Oregon State and UCLA, in particular, which all have conference records slightly above .500, have won at least four league games every year (and at least six more than once) and attended at least four bowl games over the last five seasons. They have finished in spots 2-6 without fail, never demonstrating much separation and never seriously challenging USC's hold on the top spot - even the last two seasons, when Cal and Arizona State, respectively, nominally tied SC for the championship, the "co-champ" was convincingly dispatched by the Trojans head-to-head. This would probably seem less unique to the Pac Ten if its second place team/co-champ didn't have to slum it against a Big 12 also-ran in a December game every year while its peers in other conferences are playing on New Year's Day, emphasizing the lazy perception that "They're all playing during Bowl Week, they're all mediocre" but it remains a barely distinguishable herd.
From the preseason consensus of 18 publications at Stassen.com, from most underrated to most overrated:

<table cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3"> <caption align="top">Pac Ten Preseason Consensus vs. Eventual Reality</caption> <tbody><tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(164, 74, 74) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="left">
</td> <td align="left">Preseason</td> <td align="left">Actual Finish</td> <td align="left">+/-</td> <td align="left">Rightest</td> <td align="left">Wrongest</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Arizona State</td> <td align="left">6th</td> <td align="left">T-1st (7-2)</td> <td align="left">+ 5</td> <td align="left">Three 4th Place Picks</td> <td align="left">Three 7th Place Picks</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="left">Stanford</td> <td align="left">10th</td> <td align="left">T-7th (3-6)</td> <td align="left">+ 3</td> <td align="left">SureFire, SCS (9th)</td> <td align="left">Sixteen 10th Place Picks</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Oregon State</td> <td align="left">4th</td> <td align="left">3rd (6-3)</td> <td align="left">+ 1</td> <td align="left">Three 3rd Place Picks</td> <td align="left">Five 6th Place Picks</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="left">Oregon</td> <td align="left">5th</td> <td align="left">T-4th (5-4)</td> <td align="left">+ 1</td> <td align="left">Four 4th Place Picks</td> <td align="left">SportsForm (8th)</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Wash. State</td> <td align="left">8th</td> <td align="left">T-7th (3-6)</td> <td align="left">+ 1</td> <td align="left">Three 7th Place Picks</td> <td align="left">Four 9th Place Picks</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="left">Arizona</td> <td align="left">7th</td> <td align="left">6th (4-5)</td> <td align="left">-</td> <td align="left">Lindys, SCS (6th)</td> <td align="left">SportsForm, BlueRibbon (3rd)</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Southern Cal</td> <td align="left">1st</td> <td align="left">T-1st (7-2)</td> <td align="left">-</td> <td align="left">Unanimous</td> <td align="left">None</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="left">Washington</td> <td align="left">9th</td> <td align="left">10th (2-7)</td> <td align="left">-1</td> <td align="left">SureFire Scouting (10th)</td> <td align="left">College Football News (6th)</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">UCLA</td> <td align="left">T-2nd</td> <td align="left">T-4th (5-4)</td> <td align="left">-2</td> <td align="left">Six 3rd/5th Place Picks</td> <td align="left">Blue Ribbon (6th)</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="left">California</td> <td align="left">T-2nd</td> <td align="left">T-7th (3-6)</td> <td align="left">-5</td> <td align="left">Phil Steele (5th)</td> <td align="left">Nine 2nd Place Picks</td> </tr> </tbody></table> The above-the-fold story of the year - all the way through the year-end media campaign to reinstate it - was USC's lack of the expected domination, born of injuries, etc., but nevertheless wrecking mythical championship assumptions and boggling minds everywhere with the completely un-predictable loss to the Cardinal. Even in my own Pac Ten preview, when I wrote, "No team anywhere has ever, or ever will be, `unbeatable,'" I could have been convinced if it had crossed my mind to add "Except when it plays Stanford," a team I joked was ideal for "a feature that revolved around a team of lovable but hopeless misfits," and that actually played out the absurdity for one night in (naturally) Hollywood. Nationally, the ripples from that game alone turned into cascading tidal waves, but within the conference, form ultimately held: USC won its fifth straight championship, and all was well with the prognosticenti, after all. Not so the Trojans' co-champs, which no outlet saw finishing higher than fourth place, and which many guessed would land in the bottom half of the standings. So Pac Ten Surprise of the Year - for the whole year - goes to the Sun Devils.
Snapshot_2008_01_25_13_46_18.tiff

Why, Phil Knight? Why has thine cleats forsaken Dennis Dixon's ACL?
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Like the title it shared with USC, though, that's probably only because karma swung a lead pipe for the disfigured children of sweatshops everywhere at the knees of Nike-backed Oregon, which was well on its way to the conference championship and possibly the BCS championship before Dennis Dixon went down at Arizona and the Ducks' season went flying around the room like a rapidly deflating balloon. Both in its success and failure, Oregon was an against-the-grain pick I actually got right before the season, when I said UO could rebound to double-digit wins and finish second in the conference if it could keep its stars 100 percent:
  • The offensive skill talent here rivals anyone's, including SC's, and if Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart can stay upright and in the lineup for more than a couple games at a time, Oregon should be really feared. Dixon's health and performance was a defining variable in winning and losing last year...
    [...]
    ...if Dixon is inconsistent again, or the defense struggles, recent history says trips to Arizona and Washington and the like are up for grabs, and this pick is null and void.
    - - -
It's not his fault, but "blowing out your knee for the last third of the season" falls under the heading of "inconsistent," and the subsequent losses to Arizona (check), UCLA and Oregon State were all "voided" in a way through the prism of Dixon's absence. And on the opposite end of the spectrum:
  • ...we're back to the Tedford Touch with Nate Longshore and the inevitable optimism accompanying his and [DeSean] Jackson's return.
    - - -
At least everybody got Cal wrong, along with its preseason companion in the second place slot, UCLA, in both cases because of some combination of a) sketchy defense and b) injured starting quarterbacks. The Bruins couldn't find anyone competent to stand in the pocket when Ben Olson and Patrick Cowen each went down in the first half of the year, one after the other, then re-entered the lineup later on and went down again, both of them; Longshore actually broke his ankle in the big, potentially season-defining win at Oregon, but played the rest of the year anyway - terribly! Big Nate returned after Kevin Riley's boneheaded finish in the loss to Oregon State to throw eleven interceptions in the last six regular season games, five of them (all but a three-point win over Washington State) Cal losses. Including, yes, to Stanford, probably a bigger win for Jim Harbaugh's program going forward, in terms of pure momentum and competitive standing with the league as a whole through the offseason, than even the SC upset. In fact, if Scott Olin Schmitt is right, maybe all Pac Ten projections should be null and void:
  • Were it not for all the other wackiness in College Football this season, the collapses of California and Oregon Football would be among this year's major story lines. As both teams were poised to take over the number-one ranking in the country, their quarterbacks suffered injuries which sent their seasons on a downward spiral.
    [...]
    ...quarterback injuries have defined the Pac Ten season in 2007. Karl Dorrell most likely lost his job because his two quarterbacks--Ben Olson and Pat Cowan--were injured for most of the season, and John David Booty's broken middle finger led him to throw four interceptions in the second half against Stanford, costing the Trojans a bid in the BCS title game.     Perhaps the secret to Arizona State's miraculous turnaround in 2007 was that Rudy Carpenter stayed healthy all year.
    - - -
Ditto Sean Canfield at Oregon State, the other team at the front of the peloton. When there's such little else separating the middle-of-the-pack teams, every little bit helps.
 
Source: 3 Penn State players booted

Posted: Friday January 25, 2008 9:06PM; Updated: Friday January 25, 2008 9:06PM

STATE COLLEGE, Pa. (AP) -- Three Penn State football players charged in connection with a campus fight last fall have been kicked off the team, at least temporarily, a person familiar with the players' status said Friday.
Defensive tackle Chris Baker and linebacker Navorro Bowman are awaiting trial on felony assault and other charges related to a fight in October at the campus student union.
Cornerback Knowledge Timmons was charged with misdemeanor disorderly conduct and defiant trespass stemming from an incident after the fight.
The three players are no longer with the team, though it's possible they could return to the squad, said the person familiar with the situation, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the subject.
In a statement, the school said: "Three members of the squad have been excused from the team."
Baker, Bowman and Timmons face pending disciplinary action from the university, with hearings likely within the next few weeks, the school administration said.
Charged by police in November, the players missed the final two games of the season, including the Alamo Bowl on Dec. 29, because of their legal trouble.
Baker is also awaiting trial next month on criminal charges in connection with an off-campus fight last April in which authorities said two people were hurt.
 
Wake dismisses backup RB Caparelli

Cops: He threatened campus attack on Facebook page

Posted: Saturday January 26, 2008 7:31PM; Updated: Saturday January 26, 2008 7:31PM

WINSTON-SALEM, N.C. (AP) -- A Wake Forest reserve running back has been dismissed from the team after writing on his Facebook page that he would "blow up campus."
Campus police said 19-year-old Luke Caparelli posted the note on the social-networking page on Jan. 13. The note was written in third person and included a threat that Caparelli would have an Uzi submachine gun "locked and loaded in his bag."
A detective's affidavit made public Thursday said police apparently didn't find any weapons when they searched Caparelli's bags and dorm room on Jan. 14.
The affidavit said Caparelli acknowledged writing the statements but said he wouldn't do anything to harm anyone on campus or hurt the school.
District Attorney Tom Keith said his office is awaiting reports from campus police before deciding whether to file any charges.
Caparelli hasn't responded to requests for comment.
 
Stats Relevance Watch, Part One
By SMQ
Posted on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 07:07:44 PM EDT


Wherein SMQ examines the final regular season statistics in more than a dozen major categories to suss out who succeeded in what and how that statistical success correlated to overall success in terms of final record. I don't not have the luxury of a high-powered supercomputer or degree-type qualification in mathematics or statistics, but analysis here will be driven as deep as my egghead, tinfoil cap curiosity and cell phone calculator will take it. That is to say, quasi-scientific at best. If you've ever said "the only number that matters is the one on the scoreboard" or anything to such effect, click here and don't be such a philistine.
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Part One: Which stat correlates most closely to success?
There are many ways to define "success;" for simplication, I'm stating simply: level of success=record. This is not strictly true, of course, as an 8-4 team from the Big Ten, because of the higher level of competition it must overcome to achieve that record, has likely had more success than a 9-3 Sun Belt team, if such a thing existed. But such distinctions are too fine for our purposes - we are making generalizations at this stage. We'll get a little more specific in later editions.
The method: From the NCAA's rankings in 16 major statistical categories (rush offense, pass offense, pass efficiency offense, total offense, rush defense, pass defense, pass efficiency defense, total defense, turnover margin, third down offense, third down defense, time of possession, penalty yards and, just for fun, yards per punt return, yards per kickoff return and net punting), pull out the top 20 teams and bottom 20 teams in each category for the 2007 season. Combine the records of those teams into a winning percentage for the best and worst of each category. Rank categories by number of wins of the top 20 and the bottom 20, as well as the margin between the two; the "most important" category, it would follow, would be the one with the best records at the top, the worst records at the bottom and, therefore, the greatest disparity between.
Note please the term "correlate," which of course is not "cause." There are a number of reasons for the records in each category to look the way they do, and numerous possible cause-effect relationships to be drawn (i.e., teams that trail often have to throw to catch up, and throwing therefore is inherently tied to bad teams; vice versa in the case of rushing). So the fact that, for instance, the collective records of the best passing offenses do not match those of the best rushing defenses is not an argument against ever throwing the ball.

<table cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3"> <tbody><tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(164, 74, 74) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">
</td> <td align="center">Win % of Top 20</td> <td align="center">Win % of Bottom 20</td> <td align="center">+/-</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Rush Defense</td> <td align="center">.750 (198-66)</td> <td align="center">.313 (76-167)</td> <td align="center">+ .437</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">Pass Eff. Defense</td> <td align="center">.719 (187-73)</td> <td align="center">.301 (74-172)</td> <td align="center">+ .418</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Total Defense</td> <td align="center">.720 (188-73)</td> <td align="center">.312 (77-170)</td> <td align="center">+ .408</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">3rd Down Offense</td> <td align="center">.696 (183-80)</td> <td align="center">.329 (80-163)</td> <td align="center">+ .367</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Turnover Margin</td> <td align="center">.681 (177-83)</td> <td align="center">.320 (82-174)</td> <td align="center">+ .361</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">Pass Eff. Offense</td> <td align="center">.705 (184-77)</td> <td align="center">.350 (86-160)</td> <td align="center">+ .355</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Total Offense</td> <td align="center">.680 (176-83)</td> <td align="center">.357 (87-157)</td> <td align="center">+ .323</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">3rd Down Defense</td> <td align="center">.697 (182-79)</td> <td align="center">.395 (100-153)</td> <td align="center">+ .302</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Pass Defense</td> <td align="center">.626 (159-95)</td> <td align="center">.402 (101-150)</td> <td align="center">+ .224</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">Time of Possession</td> <td align="center">.612 (156-99)</td> <td align="center">.399 (99-149)</td> <td align="center">+ .213</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Rush Offense</td> <td align="center">.589 (152-106)</td> <td align="center">.396 (95-150)</td> <td align="center">+ .193</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">Yards/Kick Return</td> <td align="center">.632 (163-95)</td> <td align="center">.462 (116-135)</td> <td align="center">+ .170</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Pass Offense</td> <td align="center">.602 (154-102)</td> <td align="center">.476 (119-131)</td> <td align="center">+ .126</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">Yards/Punt Return</td> <td align="center">.496 (124-126)</td> <td align="center">.486 (122-129)</td> <td align="center">+ .010</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Penalty Yards</td> <td align="center">.532 (134-118)</td> <td align="center">.544 (134-114)</td> <td align="center">– .012</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">Net Punting</td> <td align="center">.548 (138-114)</td> <td align="center">.583 (148-106)</td> <td align="center">– .035</td> </tr> </tbody></table> Altogether now...
Clap clap clapclapclap
d-fence.jpg

De-fense!
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Again, the most important thing to take away is that virtually every category - certainly every category typically presented as meaningful - correlated to winning on the top end and losing on the bottom; success in all of these areas generally reflected success overall. Past that generalization, the best teams in the three major non-scoring defensive categories not only won more than teams excelling in any other category, but the worst defensive teams lost more, too. Among the top 20 teams, this is exactly the same result as last year and in the much smaller look the year before that.
Offensively, we see that the best teams were far more efficient that they were necessarily explosive: turnover margin, passing efficiency and third down percentage correlated to better records at the top and worse records at the bottom than even total offense, and to much better/worse results at the poles than rushing or passing yards per game; even an essentially ancillary number like time of possession showed a greater correlation to success than yardage in either category (later editions in the series will feature more yards per carry/pass numbers, which last year's results lead me to hypothesize a reversal on that front).
In relation to last year's rankings by category (special teams categories not included - see below):

<table cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3"> <tbody><tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(164, 74, 74) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">
</td> <td align="center">2006</td> <td align="center">2007</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Rush Defense</td> <td align="center">4</td> <td align="center">1</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">Pass Eff. Defense</td> <td align="center">3</td> <td align="center">2</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">3rd Down Offense</td> <td align="center">1</td> <td align="center">4</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">Total Defense</td> <td align="center">5</td> <td align="center">3</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Pass Eff. Offense</td> <td align="center">3</td> <td align="center">6</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">Total Offense</td> <td align="center">2</td> <td align="center">7</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Turnover Margin</td> <td align="center">9</td> <td align="center">5</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">3rd Down Defense</td> <td align="center">6</td> <td align="center">8</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Pass Defense</td> <td align="center">-</td> <td align="center">9</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">Rush Offense</td> <td align="center">7</td> <td align="center">11</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Time of Possession</td> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="center">10</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">Pass Offense</td> <td align="center">11</td> <td align="center">12</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Penalty Yards</td> <td align="center">13</td> <td align="center">13</td> </tr> </tbody></table> The numbers aren't identical, but we do see the same trend: the best defensive teams had the best results, followed by the most efficient offensive teams.
For returning readers familiar with last year's debate over the stunning irrelevance of penalty yardage, we have an even less meaningful indicator: net punting, which - like penalty yards - had a slight, essentially meaningless yet existent correlation to losing. One potential response: these events (along with return yardage and other special teams indicators, though kick return average had a better correlation to success than average passing yardage) just don't happen very often, i.e. a small sample size results in a high degree of variability. If teams punted or returned kicks 75 times per game instead of, like, four or five, then a) that would be a very different, boring game, like soccer or something, and b) great punters and return men would have a much greater impact on outcomes. As it is, except in two or three obvious, game-winning-fiedl-goal type situations per season, the kicking game is something you just don't want to completely screw up.
Of course, in this version the best (and worst) teams in any given categories are often the same teams; balanced winners like LSU, Ohio State and Southern Cal, for example, are represented over and over again on the top, just as Florida International and Minnesota are at the bottom. In part two, we'll flip the game, from looking at the stats as defined by the teams to looking at the teams as defined by the stats: what, exactly, do the best teams do the best?
 
Feeding The Addiction: Spring Practice Buzz

by HornsFan Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 01:10:35 PM EDT

It's time to put on your prognosticatory caps to discuss the spring practice buzz that's right around the corner. What's the spring practice buzz? It's that hum of information we'll be getting about the football team's workouts and light scrimmaging. "Chris Jessie is absolutely dominating the fumble drillz!"
How do I know that it's coming? Because I'll be one of the people buzzing, relaying all the juicy tidbits that leak out of practice for the hungry masses to consume. It will all feel very insider-y.
It will also be meaningless. Hell, the fall practice tidbits are never worth anything, either. This past year, I vividly recall hearing all about how Chykie Brown was ready to explode and Colt McCoy's arm strength had quintupled.
Even so, it's not like we're going to give up talking Texas and start, I dunno, working all day. Spring buzz is our first dose of offseason methadone, damnit.
So who you got? Predict which players and/or storylines we're going to be hearing as spring practice gets underway in a few weeks. I'll go first.
1. Christian Scott Texas needs a safety (really, we need two), so I'm expecting we'll be hearing all sorts of tidbits about the development of someone back there. Scott or Ben Wells is about to "look phenomenal." 2. Blaine Irby The desire for this kid to be a playmaker is utterly palpable. The spring scouting drool is around the corner.

Note: the following six players are all missing spring practice to injury: sophomore DE Eddie Jones (left shoulder); junior LB Sergio Kindle (to repair cartilage in right knee); senior DE Aaron Lewis (broken left clavicle); junior Ishie Oduegwu (left shoulder); junior OT Adam Ulatoski (left knee) and sophomore WR Montre Webber (to repair a right foot fracture).
 
FULMER CUP SCOREBOARD: ROCKY TOP HOLLERIN’

This week’s cup runneth over with points for Missouri and some bonus foam on that rapsheetaccino for Tennessee. The Big Board is, as always, brought to you by Brian, who is hung like Reggie F’n Nelson.
2226578034_556bf74f0d.jpg

Missouri earned points we neglected to include last week, mostly because we couldn’t believe anyone not named Robert Downey, Jr. could be caught with such a diverse array of recreational drugs. And yet he exists: late of the Missouri football team, backup defensive tackle John Stull was arrested on Jan. 11th and is charged with two felony counts of drug possession, one misdemeanor count of drug possession, suspicion of possessing drug paraphernalia, possession of intoxicating liquor as a minor and use of a false identification.
Felony drug possession is a step above your average weed-toting Gator-inhalator charge, especially when you’re talking about coke and pills, which is precisely the case in Stull’s case. Three points each for those, one point for the misdemeanors, and we’ve cooked up a 10 point kilo of points for Missouri that was miscounted as 3 last week. We, like the Gainesville Sun, regret the error.
The asterisk by the score is significant, though: it indicates an early watch on the Ellis T. Jones III award, meaning the award for the single largest score for an individual. If Missouri stays clean for the rest of the Fulmer Cup race, we would award Stull the ET3 award, and give the program award to someone else. The point is to account for programmatic, patterned bad behavior ind a single program, not one outlier on an otherwise well-behaved team. Thus the little octopus hovering in the northeast corner up there.
Officer, I don’t like your tone. Tennessee lineman Anthony Parker picks up a bullshitty disorderly conduct charge, but a point is a point is a point here. Why is it a a bit bullshittish? Because Parker’s biggest crime seems to be hollerin’ and cussin’, a time-honored pasttime in Tennessee from what we can remember from our tenure in the Parallelogram.
Knoxville Police Department spokesperson Darrell DeBusk said Parker, 21, was arrested in the parking lot of the Sutters Mill Apartment complex just after midnight Saturday morning.
DeBusk said officer Sam Henard saw Parker standing in the parking lot of the complex, waving his hands and yelling.
Henard then arrested Parker and took him to the detention center . . . .
That’s why it’s bullshit, but you don’t quiet down when the cops come a-callin’, and you get-a disorderly conduct charge and one point for the Vols, who are already making an outstanding claim in the early paces of the Fulmer Cup race. Tradition never graduates! WOOOOOOOOO!!! This is ourrrrrr country…..

<object height="355" width="425">

<embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/SPNMERRPuHw&rel=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" height="355" width="425"></object></p> And remember…Ole Miss picks up points for disorderly as well. We still think they’re blameless due to the intoxicating effects of erotic chicken.
P.S. Texas A&M’s points were an error, as well–the incident occurred during the season, and is not eligible.
 
Mizzou's Temple headed to NFL draft

Tigers RB ends appeal for another year of eligibility

Posted: Tuesday January 29, 2008 5:34PM; Updated: Tuesday January 29, 2008 6:56PM

COLUMBIA, Mo. (AP) -- Tony Temple's career at Missouri is over, after all.
Temple announced Tuesday he will give up on any further appeals for an extra year of eligibility and get ready for the NFL draft.
"It's time to move on and focus on doing what I need to do to make a positive impression for the next level," Temple said in a statement released through the school.
Temple played in one game as a freshman in 2004, carrying six times for 13 yards in a loss at Nebraska before injuring his Achilles' tendon. Because of the short stint, Missouri coach Gary Pinkel was hopeful he might be granted an extra year of eligibility.
The request was turned down earlier this month by the Big 12. Temple has dropped his appeal to the NCAA.
"It was worth a shot, but I don't want anyone spending any more time on it," Temple said. "Coach Pinkel and I decided before last season that we should approach the 2007 season like it was going to be my last, and I'm glad we did it that way."
Temple certainly went out on a high note, rushing for a Cotton Bowl record 281 yards and scoring four touchdown's in Missouri's 38-7 win over Arkansas on Jan. 1. The Tigers had one of their best seasons ever, finishing 12-2 and No. 4 in the nation.
After rushing for 1,039 yards in 2007, Temple became the first Missouri running back to eclipse the 1,000-yard mark in more than one season. He rushed for 1,063 yards in 2006. His 2,552 career rushing yards rank sixth on the team's all-time list.
"I think this is the right decision for Tony," Pinkel said in the statement. "If he is going to get ready for the NFL then it's time."
Three running backs will compete for playing time next season, led by Jimmy Jackson, who rushed for 331 yards and seven touchdowns in 2007. Derrick Washington and Earl Goldsmith will also challenge for the starting spot.
 
Former GT Blue Chipper Now A Blue Devil

Posted Jan 30th 2008 7:31PM by Ian Cohen
Filed under: Georgia Tech Football, ACC, BCS, NCAA FB Recruiting, Duke Football
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Okay, so maybe the whole Terrelle Pryor to Duke thing is a monstrous (crack) pipe dream, but I wasn't foolin' when I said that they'd get themselves a potential stud sooner rather than later with David Cutcliffe at the helm. They found one, and on the rebound, no less.

Most college graduates, in the event they have any wisdom to pass on, usually say something along the lines of "make sure you go to a warm weather school. Trust me, brah." Sean Renfree ain't havin' that, though. Rated as the #10 QB in the country by Scout.com, he was originally committed to Georgia Tech, but that was before Paul Johnson was hired to rejigger the offense to a scheme that would give him approximately zero chance of showing his skills for the NFL. Cutcliffe, Mannings, you know the story by now. So, Renfree gets his wish of plying his wares for an academic rigorous ACC school where all the hot girls are at least within driving distance.
 
Stats Relevance Watch, Part Two
By SMQ
Posted on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 08:26:59 PM EDT


Wherein SMQ examines the final regular season statistics in more than a dozen major categories to suss out who succeeded in what and how that statistical success correlated to overall success in terms of final record. I don't not have the luxury of a high-powered supercomputer or degree-type qualification in mathematics or statistics, but analysis here will be driven as deep as my egghead, tinfoil cap curiosity and cell phone calculator will take it. That is to say, quasi-scientific at best. If you've ever said "the only number that matters is the one on the scoreboard" or anything to such effect, click here and don't be such a philistine.
- - -
Part One: Which stats correlate most closely with winning?
Part Two: What do the best teams do the best?
The short answer to the larger question posed by this edition of the Relevancy Watch is that the best teams don't do any one thing better as a group, especially in terms of offensive philosophy - among ranked teams at the end of the year, there are running teams (West Virginia, Illinois) with horrible passing numbers and passing teams (Boston College, Texas Tech) with horrible running numbers and a few more balanced teams (LSU, Texas) that look just OK in each individual category but come out strong overall, and teams that are obviously terrible all around on offense (Virginia Tech, Auburn). It's not essential to be good at everything; the numbers show there's more than one way to skin a cat, and score a touchdown.
Backing up Monday's defensive message, though, it's clear in the big picture that what's really important is not so much the offensive skinning as not getting skinned on the other end:

<table cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3"> <caption align="top">Ranked Teams Per Major Stat Category</caption> <tbody><tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(164, 74, 74) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">
</td> <td align="center">Avg. Rank of Top 10</td> <td align="center">Avg. Rank of Top 25</td> <td align="center">Top 25 in Category Top 20</td> <td align="center">Top 25 in Category Bottom 40</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Rush Defense</td> <td align="center">11.4</td> <td align="center">23.1</td> <td align="center">15</td> <td align="center">1</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">Total Defense</td> <td align="center">18.0</td> <td align="center">26.5</td> <td align="center">13</td> <td align="center">0</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Pass Eff. Defense</td> <td align="center">24.9</td> <td align="center">30.3</td> <td align="center">10</td> <td align="center">0</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">Turnover Margin</td> <td align="center">24.4</td> <td align="center">38.2</td> <td align="center">9</td> <td align="center">2</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Pass Eff. Offense</td> <td align="center">26.1</td> <td align="center">36.3</td> <td align="center">11</td> <td align="center">3</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">Total Offense</td> <td align="center">35.1</td> <td align="center">38.2</td> <td align="center">10</td> <td align="center">2</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Rush Offense</td> <td align="center">30.4</td> <td align="center">46.1</td> <td align="center">5</td> <td align="center">4</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">Pass Defense</td> <td align="center">41.9</td> <td align="center">48.7</td> <td align="center">8</td> <td align="center">7</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Pass Offense</td> <td align="center">57.7</td> <td align="center">51.7</td> <td align="center">7</td> <td align="center">7</td> </tr> </tbody></table> The omnipresent caveat here is "correlation is not causation," since the circumstances of being a good team that plays with a lead most of the time inherently favor good teams sporting better numbers against the run and worse numbers against the pass, because opposing offenses have to throw more often to catch up. Still, it hardly seems like a coincidence that ranked teams dominated the top of three of the four defensive categories with nary a representative among the dregs of any of them (the lone straggler against the run was Texas Tech, ranked 82nd), while at the same time, as noted, almost as many teams got away with being plainly bad at some or all facets of offense as excelled in them. None of the top teams in the country got away with being bad on defense; mediocre at worst, but with the lone (and predictable) exception of Texas Tech against the run, never bad.
This is a demonstrable trend that corresponds perfectly to the conclusions in Part One, which also showed a stronger correlation between winning and rush, pass efficiency and total defense than any other measures.
That's the big picture...
On a team-by-team basis, even outside the oppressive subjectivity of the polls, the result was largely the same:

<table cellpadding="2" cellspacing="2"> <caption align="top">Avg. National Rank Per Category, Teams w/ 10+ Wins</caption> <tbody><tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(164, 74, 74) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">
</td> <td align="center">Rush O</td> <td align="center">Pass O</td> <td align="center">Pass Eff. O</td> <td align="center">Total O</td> <td align="center">Rush D</td> <td align="center">Pass D</td> <td align="center">Pass Eff. D</td> <td align="center">Total D</td> <td align="center">TO Margin</td> <td align="center">Avg.</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Kansas</td> <td align="center">31</td> <td align="center">17</td> <td align="center">7</td> <td align="center">8</td> <td align="center">8</td> <td align="center">49</td> <td align="center">9</td> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="center">1</td> <td align="center">15.8</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">Hawaii</td> <td align="center">116</td> <td align="center">2</td> <td align="center">3</td> <td align="center">3</td> <td align="center">41</td> <td align="center">37</td> <td align="center">21</td> <td align="center">34</td> <td align="center">93</td> <td align="center">38.9</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Missouri</td> <td align="center">38</td> <td align="center">9</td> <td align="center">13</td> <td align="center">5</td> <td align="center">25</td> <td align="center">96</td> <td align="center">45</td> <td align="center">59</td> <td align="center">11</td> <td align="center">33.4</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">LSU</td> <td align="center">11</td> <td align="center">58</td> <td align="center">37</td> <td align="center">26</td> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="center">9</td> <td align="center">3</td> <td align="center">3</td> <td align="center">2</td> <td align="center">17.9</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">So. Cal</td> <td align="center">27</td> <td align="center">50</td> <td align="center">36</td> <td align="center">29</td> <td align="center">4</td> <td align="center">15</td> <td align="center">6</td> <td align="center">2</td> <td align="center">41</td> <td align="center">23.3</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">Georgia</td> <td align="center">37</td> <td align="center">83</td> <td align="center">61</td> <td align="center">74</td> <td align="center">16</td> <td align="center">36</td> <td align="center">36</td> <td align="center">14</td> <td align="center">18</td> <td align="center">41.7</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Ohio State</td> <td align="center">28</td> <td align="center">86</td> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="center">62</td> <td align="center">3</td> <td align="center">1</td> <td align="center">4</td> <td align="center">1</td> <td align="center">76</td> <td align="center">30.3</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">W. Virginia</td> <td align="center">3</td> <td align="center">114</td> <td align="center">11</td> <td align="center">15</td> <td align="center">18</td> <td align="center">14</td> <td align="center">28</td> <td align="center">7</td> <td align="center">9</td> <td align="center">24.3</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">BYU</td> <td align="center">67</td> <td align="center">14</td> <td align="center">28</td> <td align="center">25</td> <td align="center">9</td> <td align="center">32</td> <td align="center">18</td> <td align="center">10</td> <td align="center">93</td> <td align="center">32.9</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">Boston Coll.</td> <td align="center">106</td> <td align="center">6</td> <td align="center">59</td> <td align="center">33</td> <td align="center">2</td> <td align="center">88</td> <td align="center">23</td> <td align="center">19</td> <td align="center">30</td> <td align="center">40.7</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Oklahoma</td> <td align="center">30</td> <td align="center">36</td> <td align="center">1</td> <td align="center">19</td> <td align="center">17</td> <td align="center">59</td> <td align="center">43</td> <td align="center">26</td> <td align="center">25</td> <td align="center">28.4</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">Va. Tech</td> <td align="center">82</td> <td align="center">85</td> <td align="center">53</td> <td align="center">100</td> <td align="center">5</td> <td align="center">31</td> <td align="center">5</td> <td align="center">4</td> <td align="center">14</td> <td align="center">42.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Arizona State</td> <td align="center">77</td> <td align="center">34</td> <td align="center">17</td> <td align="center">56</td> <td align="center">21</td> <td align="center">61</td> <td align="center">15</td> <td align="center">30</td> <td align="center">38</td> <td align="center">38.8</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">Texas</td> <td align="center">17</td> <td align="center">39</td> <td align="center">30</td> <td align="center">13</td> <td align="center">6</td> <td align="center">109</td> <td align="center">70</td> <td align="center">52</td> <td align="center">47</td> <td align="center">42.6</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Cincinnati</td> <td align="center">62</td> <td align="center">20</td> <td align="center">8</td> <td align="center">16</td> <td align="center">19</td> <td align="center">89</td> <td align="center">34</td> <td align="center">50</td> <td align="center">6</td> <td align="center">33.8</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">Boise State</td> <td align="center">33</td> <td align="center">23</td> <td align="center">6</td> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="center">35</td> <td align="center">26</td> <td align="center">24</td> <td align="center">25</td> <td align="center">47</td> <td align="center">25.7</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Tennessee</td> <td align="center">73</td> <td align="center">35</td> <td align="center">29</td> <td align="center">54</td> <td align="center">69</td> <td align="center">73</td> <td align="center">66</td> <td align="center">70</td> <td align="center">27</td> <td align="center">55.1</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">UCF</td> <td align="center">9</td> <td align="center">105</td> <td align="center">67</td> <td align="center">45</td> <td align="center">39</td> <td align="center">69</td> <td align="center">27</td> <td align="center">49</td> <td align="center">54</td> <td align="center">51.6</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Tulsa</td> <td align="center">41</td> <td align="center">3</td> <td align="center">4</td> <td align="center">1</td> <td align="center">90</td> <td align="center">108</td> <td align="center">94</td> <td align="center">108</td> <td align="center">92</td> <td align="center">60.1</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(192, 192, 192) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">Avg.</td> <td align="center">46.7</td> <td align="center">43.1</td> <td align="center">25.4</td> <td align="center">31.4</td> <td align="center">23.1</td> <td align="center">52.7</td> <td align="center">30.1</td> <td align="center">30.3</td> <td align="center">38.1</td> <td align="center">
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> In fact, if you added up the numbers for all the teams in the year-end polls, you could hit the final poll position of half of them within four slots based on their statistical finish alone:

<table cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3"> <caption align="top">Ranked Teams: Stat Finish vs. Poll Finish</caption> <tbody><tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(164, 74, 74) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">
</td> <td align="center">Poll(s) Rank*</td> <td align="center">Avg. Stat Rank**</td> <td align="center">+/- vs. Polls</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">LSU</td> <td align="center">1</td> <td align="center">3</td> <td align="center">-2</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(192, 192, 192) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">Georgia</td> <td align="center">2</td> <td align="center">14</td> <td align="center">-12</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">Southern Cal</td> <td align="center">3</td> <td align="center">4</td> <td align="center">-1</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Missouri</td> <td align="center">4</td> <td align="center">9</td> <td align="center">-5</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">Ohio State</td> <td align="center">5</td> <td align="center">7</td> <td align="center">-2</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">W. Virginia</td> <td align="center">6</td> <td align="center">2</td> <td align="center">+ 4</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Kansas</td> <td align="center">7</td> <td align="center">1</td> <td align="center">+ 6</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">Oklahoma</td> <td align="center">8</td> <td align="center">5</td> <td align="center">+ 3</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Va. Tech</td> <td align="center">9</td> <td align="center">17</td> <td align="center">-8</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">Texas</td> <td align="center">10</td> <td align="center">11</td> <td align="center">-1</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Boston Coll.</td> <td align="center">11</td> <td align="center">18</td> <td align="center">-7</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(192, 192, 192) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">Tennessee</td> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="center">26</td> <td align="center">-14</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">Florida</td> <td align="center">13</td> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="center">+ 1</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(192, 192, 192) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">Auburn</td> <td align="center">14</td> <td align="center">23</td> <td align="center">-9</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">Arizona State</td> <td align="center">15</td> <td align="center">13</td> <td align="center">+ 2</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">BYU</td> <td align="center">16</td> <td align="center">16</td> <td align="center">-</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">Michigan</td> <td align="center">17</td> <td align="center">21</td> <td align="center">-4</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(192, 192, 192) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">Cincinnati</td> <td align="center">18</td> <td align="center">8</td> <td align="center">+ 10</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Illinois</td> <td align="center">19</td> <td align="center">24</td> <td align="center">-5</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">Hawaii</td> <td align="center">20</td> <td align="center">19</td> <td align="center">+ 1</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(192, 192, 192) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">Clemson</td> <td align="center">21</td> <td align="center">6</td> <td align="center">+ 15</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">Texas Tech</td> <td align="center">22</td> <td align="center">25</td> <td align="center">-3</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(192, 192, 192) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">Oregon</td> <td align="center">23</td> <td align="center">10</td> <td align="center">+ 13</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Wisconsin</td> <td align="center">24</td> <td align="center">19</td> <td align="center">+ 5</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">Oregon State</td> <td align="center">25</td> <td align="center">22</td> <td align="center">+ 3</td> </tr> <tr></tr><tr style="background: rgb(192, 192, 192) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">Penn State</td> <td align="center">26</td> <td align="center">15</td> <td align="center">+ 9</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
* Top 25 teams based on average final rank in AP, Coaches and Blog Poll (hence the inclusion of Penn State, No. 25 by the coaches).
** Average Stat Rank ordered within ranked teams only.
- - - Is it significant that the three teams that finished much better in the polls than on paper (Georgia, Tennessee and Auburn) are all from the SEC? Probably, though for different reasons depending on your perspective: either pollsters are so blinded in favor of the mythical speeeeeeed in the conference they chronically overrate its members, or the SEC is just too tough to compare to other girlie conferences. They're probably both right.
"Good teams have good stats" is not like, wow, I know, but going back to the point of the exercise, it's necessary to demonstrate these things with certainty.
These numbers and those presented in Part One, however, are just averages over the whole season, a macro look that might not necessarily hold true to form on a micro level. Where the first two editions of the Relevancy Watch have been large scale, top-down assessments, Part Three forward will deal with the micro on a game-by-game basis to build an anlysis from the ground up.<!-- poll box -->
<table align="center" width="40%"><tbody><tr><td>
</td></tr></tbody></table>
 
ND tight end suspended indefinitely

Posted: Tuesday February 5, 2008 7:13PM; Updated: Tuesday February 5, 2008 7:13PM

SOUTH BEND, Ind. (AP) -- Notre Dame suspended football and lacrosse player Will Yeatman indefinitely on Tuesday for an undisclosed violation of team policy.
The 6-foot-6 tight end from San Diego started three of 12 football games and had six catches for 37 yards last season.
The sophomore led the Irish lacrosse team with 46 points last spring and was named Great Western Lacrosse League newcomer of the year.
Brian Hardin, Notre Dame's director of football media relations, would not comment on the nature of the violation but said it involved both sports.
 
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