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What: No. 12 South Carolina (3-0) at No. 2 LSU (3-0)
Where: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, La.
When: Sat., Sept. 22, 3:30 p.m. ET
TV/Radio: CBS (Verne Lundquist, Gary Danielson); USC Radio Network (Todd Ellis, Tommy Suggs).
South Carolina heads to Baton Rouge this weekend to face, if you believe the polls, one of the best teams in the nation in the LSU Tigers. The Tigers are exceptionally talented, and have proven it so far this year with three consecutive convincing wins against overmatched opponents. One of those opponents was Virginia Tech, but the Hokies were swarmed under on both sides of the ball in a 48-7 loss two weeks ago. Some people believe USC will suffer the same fate. But USC has one thing going for it – head coach Steve Spurrier. Under the HBC, USC has pulled out a number of significant and historic road wins, including a 16-12 win at Georgia Sept. 8. This would be the biggest win – if you go by the polls - in school history if the Gamecocks play smart, turnover-free football and find a way to pull it out in the fourth quarter.
Here's how the two teams matchup on both sides of the ball:
USC OFFENSE v. LSU DEFENSE:
No question quarterback Blake Mitchell must perform several levels better than he did last week in the win over I-AA S.C. State. While he completed 66.7 percent of his passes, he made bad decisions in several spots and ended up tossing three interceptions.
The passing game was so ineffective against the Bulldogs that Spurrier all but abandoned it in the second half, turning to the running game to bail out the offense.
As a fifth-year senior, Mitchell must provide the same leadership as two weeks ago in Athens when he smartly directed USC to a much-needed win over Georgia. But he looked like a totally different quarterback a week later.
Curiously, some of Mitchell's best performances of his career have come away from Williams Brice Stadium. Last year, he scorched Florida and Clemson on the road. The previous campaign, victories over Tennessee and Arkansas marked his first full year as the starter.
If the Blake Mitchell of the final 18 quarters of 2006 makes an appearance at Tiger Stadium Saturday, the odds of the Gamecocks pulling off the upset increase dramatically.
An important key to this game is how much success running backs Cory Boyd (or, as Les Miles called him, "Cory Byrd") and Mike Davis will enjoy running between the tackles.
Boyd (255 yards) and Davis (252 yards) have combined for 507 yards in three games. Both running backs are on pace to rush for 1,000 yards and become just the second USC duo to both reach the millennium figure in the same season.
But trying to run the football against LSU's front seven might present the biggest challenge for USC in this game. The Tigers are giving up just 1.0 yard per rush and have allowed just one trip into the red zone, which came in Week 2 by Virginia Tech.
In order to have any success running the ball, USC must neutralize All-America DT Glenn Dorsey, who, as NFL scouts will tell you, is as strong and quick as any tackle in the nation. USC will probably have to commit two blockers to contain him.
But Dorsey is not alone. Defensive end Tyson Jackson and tackle Charles Alexander are pretty good, too. Linebacker Ali Highsmith is LSU's leading tackler with 21.
Kenny McKinley remains USC's top pass receiving threat by a wide margin. However, he's been running shorter routes, which is an indication of Spurrier's lack of faith in the vertical passing game and the offensive line providing the quarterback sufficient time to take his steps and throw the ball.
Last year, McKinley averaged 17.3 yards for his 51 catches (880 yards). This season, McKinley has 17 receptions (one-third of his season total of a year ago) for 182 yards, an average of 10.7 yards per catch. That's 6.6 yards less per catch, a significant chunk of yardage.
Overall, USC's average yards per reception has fallen by 3.1 yards in 2007 over last season. The danger is that unless USC can establish some type of passing game, they could make the fatal mistake of becoming one-dimensional.
Against a top defense like LSU's, that won't enhance the Gamecocks' chances for winning.
After watching veterans like Moe Brown drop one too many passes, Spurrier announced Thursday night that true freshman Jason Barnes will get his first career start against the tough Tigers' secondary.
In Spurrier's mind, USC has been throwing to the wide receivers and tight ends too much. The foundation of the Cock-n-Fire offense is a vertical passing game that tries to extend defenses beyond their limits.
But for the past few weeks USC's passing has been mostly horizontal, with an emphasis on dump off passes to the running backs and short passes to the tight ends.
COACH'S COMMENT: "We're going up to LSU and get into a ballgame hopefully somewhat like the Georgia game. It's going to be pretty hard for us to go down there and outscore them. So, hopefully, it will be a field goal game. We have an excellent field goal kicker in Ryan Succop. That's the kind of game we would like to have happen. Whether or not it will, we have to go play and find out. I don't need to sit here and tell you how good of a team they are. Everybody has said that. They have a big-time college football program at LSU. They've really got it rolling right now. Basically, Tulane is the only school
they compete with in-state for players and Louisiana has excellent high school football. So that is a football program that has an opportunity to do very well every year" - USC head coach Steve Spurrier.
LSU OFFENSE v. USC DEFENSE:
In the eyes of Tiger fans, the biggest question for the LSU offense heading into this week's game against USC is this: can the Tigers reach 40 points for the fifth consecutive game.
LSU is averaging 45.7 points per game through three games – all lopsided wins over Mississippi State (45-0), Virginia Tech (48-7) and Middle Tennessee (44-0). They have two good quarterbacks in Matt Flynn and Ryan Perrilloux, who filled in last week when Flynn suffered a sprained ankle.
Les Miles declined to name a starting QB throughout the week but all indications point to the senior Flynn, who made his first career start in the 2005 Peach Bowl, returning from his one-week hiatus.
LSU has adopted a running back by committee with Jacob Hester, a tough inside runner who is tough to bring down, showing the way with 206 yards. Keiland Williams, who has the speed to beat defenders on the corner, has 174 yards and four touchdowns. Both runners should get plenty of work in Saturday's game.
After an embarrassing performance against Louisiana-Lafayette in the season opener, the USC run defense has improved by leaps and bounds. They held Georgia to 128 yards two weeks ago, a key statistic in the Gamecocks' win.
Just as he was last season, the anchor of USC's defense is middle linebacker Jasper Brinkley. But he's getting plenty of assistance this year from his twin brother Casper Brinkley, Eric Norwood and Rodney Paulk. Safety Darian Stewart led USC in tackles against Georgia, and could play a key role in trying to contain LSU's running game alongside strong safety Emanuel Cook.
One question that must be answered is what impact the loss of DT Nathan Pepper will have on the USC defense. Pepper suffered torn knee ligaments while returning an interception for a TD last week and will miss the rest of the season.
Continuing to emphasize stopping the run, the USC defensive coaches reconfigured the defense by shifting OLB Casper Brinkley to his former position of defensive end and sliding true freshman Cliff Matthews into the vacated outside linebacker spot.
Matthews sustained a bone in his hand earlier this week in practice but is expected to retain his starting role and earn his first career start. Matthews was all over the field last week in the S.C. State. Can he do it two weeks in a row?
LSU's leading wide receiver Early Doucet has been ruled out of the game after incurring a "pretty significant" groin injury last week in practice before the Middle Tennessee game.
Jared Mitchell, who strongly considered signing with USC but stayed in-state, stepped in for Doucet last week and had a team-high six receptions. While talented, by all accounts Mitchell isn't nearly as polished as Doucet.
With Doucet likely sidelined, the leading receiver heading into this contest is Brandon LaFell, who has 11 receptions. He's the only active receiver with double digit catches.
Brandon Isaac suffered a shoulder injury in the S.C. State game last week but is expected to play Saturday. Cook and Stewart are growing into one of the top safety tandems into the SEC, while Captain Munnerlyn is already drawing raves for his man coverage skills and warrior mentality.
COACH'S COMMENT: "They are known for their throwing game, but the reality is they are running the football as productively and efficiently as they have ever run it. They have two very talented running backs. Corey Boyd rushed for over 800 yards a year ago. They have two running backs that they can put in the game and get yards with. They have a go-to-receiver in Kenny McKinley. He is a very talented guy. He is a guy that can make plays. Their quarterback, Blake Mitchell, is one of the career leaders in passing yards at South Carolina. He is a big, strong and capable quarterback. Their offensive line is coming and making improvement on a weekly basis. Their offense is very dangerous and we have to make sure we are ready to play" - LSU head coach Les Miles.
SYNOPSIS: Player-for-player, few people will argue LSU is more talented than USC. But, as Steve Spurrier likes to say, the best team doesn't always win. Spurrier may be the best coach in the nation in his ability to equalize the talent when there is a huge disparity. The best evidence of that is last year's 17-16 loss at Florida. The Gators, the eventual national champions, had far more talent than USC. But Spurrier's superior coaching and play calling, together with excellent motivational skills, gave USC a chance to win it at the end. Spurrier believes USC must ride its two-headed monster at running game, the aggressive defense, and the strong leg of Ryan Succop to have any chance of victory in this one. In four of the five most significant road victories of Spurrier's tenure, USC scored 16 points or less. So, it's not like it hasn't happened before. USC must keep the game close throughout by limiting the number of turnovers, playing strong defense and hoping LSU makes a few mistakes. The formula worked to perfection at Georgia two weeks ago. Can it work again? Five years ago, USC went into Tiger Stadium and played well for the first half before an avalanche of mistakes and turnovers got the notorious LSU crowd going and doomed USC's chances in the second half. A key component to this game may be the weather. Scattered thunderstorms are predicted for the Baton Rouge area Saturday night. If it's raining at game time, the balance could shift in USC's favor.
PREDICTION: USC needs to quickly establish an effective running game and snap off some long drives and control time of possession as they did in Gainesville last year. At the same time, they have to mix in some passes to keep the LSU defense honest. While everyone knows how good the LSU defense is, the offense may be underrated. The loss of Doucet at wide receiver will hurt, no doubt. And Matt Flynn may not be 100 percent healthy. But it may not matter. The Tigers are deep at nearly every position and have plenty of bodies to fill in. Think of the Storm Troopers in
Star Wars. But I keep getting back to the thought Spurrier will find a way to keep the game close. Most national pundits like Spencer Tillman of CBS are predicting a blowout victory for the Tigers. I don't think that will happen. I've seen Spurrier do it too many times against superior teams to think LSU will cruise past the Gamecocks. But LSU is playing at home and the crowd at Tiger Stadium is famous for making a lot of noise. I think USC will battle the Tigers hard. But USC's lack of a productive passing attack concerns me. LSU could easily make the Gamecocks one-dimensional on offense, and that's never a good thing. Conversely, I expect the USC defense to play much tougher against the Tigers than their first three opponents did. But will it be enough? Can USC win? With a little bit of good fortune, yes. But unless LSU helps them out, the Tigers will probably win this game. Stated another way, if both USC and LSU brings their 'A' games, the Tigers should prevail. But I believe after a stellar effort, USC will gain a healthy amount of respect throughout the SEC and the nation, and set themselves up nicely for a strong run over the final eight games of the regular season. If the game is close and hard-fought, as I expect it will, they may tumble only a few spots in the polls.
LSU 24, USC 14.
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It's easier to think of Larry King swearing off marriage, Bill Clinton joining the Republican Party, or Brittney Spears being named Mother of the Year.
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The Brinkley brothers will try to keep Keiland Williams and the other LSU backs in check</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- End Keiland Williams, 200 vs MTSU Image-->Just when you think that nothing in sports will surprise you anymore, into Tiger Stadium comes a South Carolina team whose offense is based primarily on the run.
Coached by Steve Spurrier?
Pigs flew in Alabama in 1993. There was a Bluegrass Miracle in 2002. But Spurrier committing to the run?
Right.
Next we'll hear that Nick Saban accepted a 6-year term as president of his neighborhood homeowners association.
But it's true. The numbers are a little deceiving, as the Gamecocks average about 13 yards per game more through the air than on the ground, but listen to the coach.
"We run it better than we throw it. We'll keep trying to throw it some more but we have to run it," said Spurrier on the SEC teleconference this week.
I had to make sure it wasn't Houston Nutt's segment.
The best player on the USC offense in the tailback, and his backup is pretty good too, so even though quarterback Blake Mitchell (#12, 6-3, 217-lbs., SR.) is among the career leaders in passing yardage at the school, Darth Visor is loathe to put the game in his hands.
It was surreal to hear Spurrier this week. He doesn't ever recall being this big an underdog. He couldn't remember if he had lost a game to LSU during his playing career (he didn't). His opening remarks, paraphrased, were "if we lose it's not the end of the world" and "I have to be realistic with my team. I'm not one of these coaches that talks about whipping somebody's tail when I'm this big an underdog."
Where's the "Free Shoes University" chatter? You can't spell Citrus without UT?
He sounded like Ali before his fight with Larry Holmes. With his skills diminished, the swagger was gone. Spurrier's skills are still sharp, but he doesn't have the tools he needs.
Steve Spurrier may be the greatest coach the SEC has ever seen, dominating in an era designed for parity, changing 60-year old attitudes and philosophies along the way. He has always been candid and honest, which makes him interesting in a world of coach-speak sound bytes. With equal talent, I'd still take him over anyone under a headset today.
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Spurrier might be the best coach the SEC has ever seen</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- End Image-->His honesty this week strongly suggested his talent is nowhere near equal to his opponent. He sounded like a coach prepared to lose when he said, "We'll see some teams we matchup with better, like Kentucky, Arkansas, and Vanderbilt, somewhere down the road."
Unless it's all part of the master plan to lull everyone to sleep.
Never underestimate the Ole Ball Coach.
The South Carolina offense
Tailback Cory Boyd (#3, 6-1, 217-lbs., SR.) is averaging 6.5 yards per carry through three games. He's an exceptionally strong cutback runner with enough speed to hit the corner against most teams. He'll put a shoulder into a defender, and is a fine receiver out of the backfield.
Boyd's off the field problems and reluctance to buy into what Spurrier was selling the last two years probably stunted his development. He seems primed for a big senior season.
His backup, Mike Davis (#25, 5-9, 215-lbs., JR.) is a lot like Boyd, minus the off the field stuff, and his numbers are almost identical across the board. Both of these backs figure prominently in the passing game, with nine receptions each.
Quarterback Blake Mitchell has been up and down so much in his Gamecock career that if he had been with Spurrier at any other point, he would have been benched double-digit times. Remember, Terry Dean went from Heisman candidate to second string once under SOS.
Mitchell has a plus arm and is mobile, and his completion percentage is good on the season. However, he tends to be all over the place, both on the field (3 INT's in 2 games) and off (a suspension in the season opener for missing class). His leadership skills have come into question for these transgressions.
When Mitchell gets hot, he can win against almost anybody. When he's not, the Gamecocks are in big trouble.
Tight end Andy Boyd (#80, 6-4, 265-lbs., SR.) has nice ability. He's a good inline blocker with solid hands, though he lacks great speed. Boyd will be in an NFL camp next season if he can solve the biggest hole in his game, which is his inability to avoid injuries.
The offensive line has been average at best. Boyd and Davis have been getting their yards, but the quarterbacks have been pressured all too often. The six sacks allowed just begins to tell the story. This group has to take some responsibility for the Gamecocks' seven turnovers.
The South Carolina defense
The words "Brinkley on the tackle" should ring throughout Tiger Stadium often on Saturday. That's because there are two of them.
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Jasper Brinkley leads the Gamecocks in tackles</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- End Image-->Middle linebacker Jasper Brinkley (#52, 6-2, 262-lbs., SR.) and weakside linebacker Casper Brinkley (#51, 6-2, 255-lbs., SR.) are the best two players on the unit. Jasper leads the team in tackles, and Casper is third.
Jasper has strong hands and gets off blocks quickly. He's very physical, and a sure tackler. He also excels in pass coverage, and already has two interceptions this season. Jasper won't come off the field. If he runs well for the clock, the only area he really has any question marks about, he'll be a middle round draft choice next year.
Casper, who played defensive end last season, is moving back there this week. Junior end Nathan Pepper was lost for the year last week, and Casper will replace him. Backup end Cliff Matthews, rather than move up at that position, will instead play Casper's weakside linebacker.
The move probably suits Casper, who was struggling in pass coverage. He's much better as a pass rusher, with a quick first step and more than enough speed to chase down backside plays. How the move effects Matthews is a much bigger question.
The South Carolina special teams
Ryan Succop (#14, 6-2, 214-lbs., JR.) handles the kicking and punting. He is 4-5 on field goals, missing from only 47 yards, and also kicks off.
His punting average of 41.9 is very good, but the coverage has been lacking, as Gamecock opponents average over 13 yards per return. LSU hasn't had much success in this area. Maybe this will be the week.
The return people are average.
Intangibles
The freak injury to Charles Alexander really hurts LSU. He was really starting to come on, taking more snaps than anyone else in the defensive line rotation except Glen Dorsey and maybe Tyson Jackson.
Marlon Favorite and Al Woods should be able to do the job, and Woods is a star waiting to explode, but Alexander was starting for a reason, and it's because he was the best guy available. You don't lose that guy and not feel it some. LSU's defensive firepower is stoked up front first and foremost, so they need some people to step up.
To quote from Apollo 13, "they'll be OK as long as they don't lose another one." However, this does put some question into the redshirt of Drake Nevis.
The previously mentioned defensive moves for South Carolina will be interesting to watch. They moved two people when they only had to move one, so they must feel more comfortable this way.
Mitchell will try to become the first quarterback to make it through a game against LSU.
Matt Flynn will likely start, so how much of Ryan Perrilloux will Gary Crowton throw at the Gamecocks?
Early Doucet's absence will be felt, but the understudies have been fine here.
The last, and only, time that Steve Spurrier didn't win against LSU, he may have outsmarted himself. He kept Doug Johnson throwing against a stacked deck with fresh rushers coming at him, when riding tailback Fred Taylor might well have erased one of the biggest upsets in LSU history.
This time, he's just outgunned.
LSU 38 South Carolina 7
