The NBA Finals: Oklahoma City vs Indiana Discussion
- Thread starter B.A.R.
- Start date
Game 1 has Thunder at -9 with over/under at 229.5
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Strong opener for OKC when insta Indiana bets will be coming in. Doubt it gets to 10 but OKC will be sharp....I guess rust is always a concern after over a week off.
Eric Antrobus
The Bus Driver
Thunder in 6.
Is Nesmith ankle all healed up? He'll presumably be, more than Nembhard, Indiana's best choice to guard SGA with. Doubt he can have much success when healthy, though...
Let's look at previous Game #1 lines for this postseason at home -- Oklahoma City Thunder @guinness
WCF's - Oklahoma City -7 vs Minnesota
WCSF's - Oklahoma City -9.5 vs Denver
First Round - Oklahoma City -12.5 vs Memphis
So, we now are in the NBA Finals and see that the Thunder opened at -9 in their G1 match in OKC.
The simple way to look at this -- books think that the WCFs was for the championship. They also would have Denver and Indiana as pretty close to even.
All those things can be true.
I think the way to look at this though is they are assigning a bit of a tax on OKC home games. Yes, Denver upset the Thunder with the comeback in G1 -- but otherwise we saw double digit wins in the other openers and nearly all the home games.
This team is simply different at home.
Here are their playoff margins at OKC.
51 points
19 points
LOSS
43 points
7 points
32 points
26 points
15 points
30 points
The loss, OKC was up DDs at HT. A 71 point nuggets 2h gave the Thunder that lone home loss.
So, back to the initial point. Books have to shade the home favorite a bit here. This is just what they do.
WCF's - Oklahoma City -7 vs Minnesota
WCSF's - Oklahoma City -9.5 vs Denver
First Round - Oklahoma City -12.5 vs Memphis
So, we now are in the NBA Finals and see that the Thunder opened at -9 in their G1 match in OKC.
The simple way to look at this -- books think that the WCFs was for the championship. They also would have Denver and Indiana as pretty close to even.
All those things can be true.
I think the way to look at this though is they are assigning a bit of a tax on OKC home games. Yes, Denver upset the Thunder with the comeback in G1 -- but otherwise we saw double digit wins in the other openers and nearly all the home games.
This team is simply different at home.
Here are their playoff margins at OKC.
51 points
19 points
LOSS
43 points
7 points
32 points
26 points
15 points
30 points
The loss, OKC was up DDs at HT. A 71 point nuggets 2h gave the Thunder that lone home loss.
So, back to the initial point. Books have to shade the home favorite a bit here. This is just what they do.
skanless13
Fly, Eagles, Fly!
I keep hearing people say this is a brutal matchup for Pacers, but I think they can hang and will win at least 2
First guy I thought of for defense.
I'd assume we have a better idea in a few days. These injuries from tonight are fresh and I would imagine they are in no hurry to divulge information.
I certainly hope so.
This Pacers team isn't a fluke. They are the best team in the East. A well deserved berth.
Unfortunately, much like Reggie's Pacers in 2000, they are running into the start of a dynasty.
skanless13
Fly, Eagles, Fly!
Yep. OKC gonna be a huge problem for the next 10 years
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
There are completely different reasons to embrace the Pacers in the dog role this season. Real question isn't about them. It's can OKC handle being prohibitive favorites when they haven't actually accomplished anything yet? Decipher that equation and you are winning the Finals as a gambler.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Well maybe 3-4 years then luxury tax kicks in. It's not realistic to expect a team to dominate for a decade
divol
The Spurs can suck my manhood
Only if ownership willing to go 2nd apron. Chet and Williams will want max deals.
divol
The Spurs can suck my manhood
Two similar styles...
Caruso - TJ
Dort, Wallace, K.Williams, Joe - Mathurin, Nesmith, Nembhard and so on.
Both have clear stars, but are built wide and any player can catch a day.
Clear advantage for Carlisle, but you can't ignore Daigneault and they way Thunder played whole season long.
I think that Chet is clear advantage against almost any team in the league. Very hard to find third player on any roster of that caliber... He could be an All Star on many other teams as first option. Also Pacers don't have that rim protection that Thunder saw in T-Wolves, while Thunder do have some size that Pacers can struggle against.
Overall, can easily be a gentleman's sweep...
I think Pacers can play defense with Thunder, my main question is the offense. Pacers play passing game and it's super dangerous against a team like the Thunder.
We saw two easy Over results between the teams in the regular season, but it feels like an Under series. Can see Pacers struggle to reach 100 points at least in 2 games.
In Game 1 this playoffs, OKC conceded 80, 121 and 88 points. Guess which one ended in a loss... More than that - Memphis and Minny scored the lowest number of points in the whole series in Game 1... Don't have Pacers total yet, but I assume it should be around 110 points and good chance Under will be the bet...
Caruso - TJ
Dort, Wallace, K.Williams, Joe - Mathurin, Nesmith, Nembhard and so on.
Both have clear stars, but are built wide and any player can catch a day.
Clear advantage for Carlisle, but you can't ignore Daigneault and they way Thunder played whole season long.
I think that Chet is clear advantage against almost any team in the league. Very hard to find third player on any roster of that caliber... He could be an All Star on many other teams as first option. Also Pacers don't have that rim protection that Thunder saw in T-Wolves, while Thunder do have some size that Pacers can struggle against.
Overall, can easily be a gentleman's sweep...
I think Pacers can play defense with Thunder, my main question is the offense. Pacers play passing game and it's super dangerous against a team like the Thunder.
We saw two easy Over results between the teams in the regular season, but it feels like an Under series. Can see Pacers struggle to reach 100 points at least in 2 games.
In Game 1 this playoffs, OKC conceded 80, 121 and 88 points. Guess which one ended in a loss... More than that - Memphis and Minny scored the lowest number of points in the whole series in Game 1... Don't have Pacers total yet, but I assume it should be around 110 points and good chance Under will be the bet...
Aren‘t Thunder a swarming defense? For example they double-teamed Edwards about 46 percent of the time in Game 4. They can‘t do that to a passer like Haliburton who would pick them apart
Pacers are 3-0 in Game 1 so far, beating Bucks 117-98 and scoring over 120 in second-and third-rounds G1s
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
I think they are an insanely awesome CLOGGING defense, not swarming
Interesting dynamics in this one
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
I don't think Chet or Hartenstein will be all that relevant defensively against Indiana. That's what makes it fun as a fan, maybe not so much as a gambler. Pacers likely will never make this about interior defense so then it comes down to how Jalen and Dort lock down and if they get into foul trouble. Those will be the million dollar matchups. Pacers length on defense will be important...first instinct for me is unders the first couple games at least.
divol
The Spurs can suck my manhood
I think they closing passing lanes more. This is not swarming defense like half court traps and so on. This is more like they give you a choice - turnover a ball trying to pass or shoot bad shot.
divol
The Spurs can suck my manhood
Yeah, but Finals adds pressure, especially to a team like Pacers, I think that defensively Thunder on an absolute different level than Cavs and Knicks and I think Pacers only chance is to push the pace and I think Thunder will be able to slow them down.
With two teams that not used to being in the Finals, Game 1 can have really low scoring...
Thunder do allow fourth-fewest assists per game
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
They also play in a division that was much more about inside play than what Indiana brings. Pretty much night and day in that respect.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Coaching mismatch is pretty funny
Simple breakdown for me is pace. I really don't think the vaunted OKC defense is all that relevant in this series. It will be at times but I don't see that being the difference. Indiana defense is pretty solid. That said SGA will likely get what he wants when he wants it. Curious to see how the series progresses with Jalen and Lou having to go lockdown on defense and how that translates to their offensive games.
Simple breakdown for me is pace. I really don't think the vaunted OKC defense is all that relevant in this series. It will be at times but I don't see that being the difference. Indiana defense is pretty solid. That said SGA will likely get what he wants when he wants it. Curious to see how the series progresses with Jalen and Lou having to go lockdown on defense and how that translates to their offensive games.
The Thunder played at the fifth-fastest pace in the regular season and second-fastest in the playoffs to date.
divol
The Spurs can suck my manhood
Yeap, but it's because of turnovers and fast breaks. In set offence they never in a hurry.
wizardofodd
Resident Newlywed
and for how long will these two be under the luxury tax, maybe 1 more year at most....
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twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
G-Man
Pretty much a regular
They really man-handled the cavs.
Pacers only lost to OKC because of one outrageuous 3 pt run hitting unheard of 47%.
LIke the dog myself.
BUT IND has J.Walker listed as OUT!
Line is now 9.5.
divol
The Spurs can suck my manhood
Took Pacers Under 110.5 points in Game 1. Pacers struggled to score against Thunder, Thunder put on a clinic in Game 1 in the playoffs so far on defense and will try to do the same. Both teams like fast pace, but that's why the total for Pacers is so high.
Really curious how they handle defense on Tyrese - trying to keep him from scoring or from passing. If I'm the Thunder, I leave with Tyrese doing 30 points and under 5 assists than 15 points and 10+ assists even if math wise its the same amount of points. Thunder excel at closing passing lanes + Pacers are a team that lives off ball flow and off the ball movement and less on iso plays.
Really doubt Pacers points average for the series will be above 103-105 points, so wouldn't mind some chasing if Game 1 bet losses...
Pacers to win, need to stop Jalen Williams. I doubt they can stop SGA and assuming he will get his 20+ points even on a bad night, it's JDub that does the little things and can make the difference. Thunder still have too many moments where offense appears to be stuck and it's up to Carlisle to make those moments as much as possible + every TO or miss can turn to easy points on the other end, something that Pacers will need badly against Thunder if they want to have any shot at the series (obviously Thunder also live off fast breaks).
Wouldn't suprise me to see Finals to be with the fastest pace we saw so far in the playoffs and with big intensity, both coaches can go even deeper in to rotation to always keep fresh legs on the floor.
Rooting for the underdog, but have so much respect for this Thunder team...
Really curious how they handle defense on Tyrese - trying to keep him from scoring or from passing. If I'm the Thunder, I leave with Tyrese doing 30 points and under 5 assists than 15 points and 10+ assists even if math wise its the same amount of points. Thunder excel at closing passing lanes + Pacers are a team that lives off ball flow and off the ball movement and less on iso plays.
Really doubt Pacers points average for the series will be above 103-105 points, so wouldn't mind some chasing if Game 1 bet losses...
Pacers to win, need to stop Jalen Williams. I doubt they can stop SGA and assuming he will get his 20+ points even on a bad night, it's JDub that does the little things and can make the difference. Thunder still have too many moments where offense appears to be stuck and it's up to Carlisle to make those moments as much as possible + every TO or miss can turn to easy points on the other end, something that Pacers will need badly against Thunder if they want to have any shot at the series (obviously Thunder also live off fast breaks).
Wouldn't suprise me to see Finals to be with the fastest pace we saw so far in the playoffs and with big intensity, both coaches can go even deeper in to rotation to always keep fresh legs on the floor.
Rooting for the underdog, but have so much respect for this Thunder team...
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Not sure why but besides playing the over 230 I played
Siakam ov 19.5
Turner ov 13.5
Turner ov 1.5 3’s
Harkenstien Under 7.5
I dunno if taking Turner and Siakam overs was a good idea? I do kinda think Turner should hit some corner 3s since from what I’ve seen okc is willing to let teams shoot that, minny certainly had a bunch of open looks from there they just couldn’t make them. Strange cause pretty sure I’ve heard okc had the best 3 point d? Is it the fact they let these sorry teams shoot so many they know their percentage be low? I assume pacers will look to shoot before the d set up.
I really can’t see harkenstien playing all that much, he too slow and pacers bigs can pull him away from basket so how much value does he have? Hopefully not much!
Siakam ov 19.5
Turner ov 13.5
Turner ov 1.5 3’s
Harkenstien Under 7.5
I dunno if taking Turner and Siakam overs was a good idea? I do kinda think Turner should hit some corner 3s since from what I’ve seen okc is willing to let teams shoot that, minny certainly had a bunch of open looks from there they just couldn’t make them. Strange cause pretty sure I’ve heard okc had the best 3 point d? Is it the fact they let these sorry teams shoot so many they know their percentage be low? I assume pacers will look to shoot before the d set up.
I really can’t see harkenstien playing all that much, he too slow and pacers bigs can pull him away from basket so how much value does he have? Hopefully not much!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Yea I grabbed a little that pacers 1st qrtr play, seems like a good idea seeing how I like over anyways, if pacers don’t get 27 in 1st I can prob throw out over 230 anyways, lol.
If okc jumps out to any kind of lead the live numbers gonna be redic right? I really don’t understand this freaking 9.5/10 shit and I’ve said bunch of times I thought okc prob roll whomever out of east. I don’t think they gonna roll them enough to be laying that. How they fuck you lay that? Mfers make me wanna bet pacers.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I don’t even like pacers all that much, im
Glad it isn’t the Knicks that for damn sure, for entertainment value anyways cause I don’t think Knicks woulda had a chance in hell, I could have laid the 7-8 points it probably woulda been vs overrated Knicks tho. I can’t lay -9.5, why can’t it be like 6 which is probably more right if everyone wasn’t acting like okc one the best teams ever. I can’t buy that shit or these prices.
Glad it isn’t the Knicks that for damn sure, for entertainment value anyways cause I don’t think Knicks woulda had a chance in hell, I could have laid the 7-8 points it probably woulda been vs overrated Knicks tho. I can’t lay -9.5, why can’t it be like 6 which is probably more right if everyone wasn’t acting like okc one the best teams ever. I can’t buy that shit or these prices.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
If there's a mismatch anywhere it's coaching.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
How in the world they hanging a fuvkinb -11 for gm2?? They are basically forcing me to be a pacers fan! This is so fucking redic, all day still heard all the tv bobbleidiots proclaim either this was like when Allen iverson went up against lakers and AI won game 1 then Lakers ran off 4 straight. So now after pacers walk them down they comparing okc to the fuckin Kobe and shaq lakers? You gotta be shifting me, can you imagine what Shaq would do to those stick figure white boys down low? I know SGA wouldn’t be scoring 30+ on Kobe! Those lakers won 3 straight championships and woulda won 4 if they didn’t bring on all those washed up losers like Malone and Gary Payton trying to freeload a ring since Jorden kept them from getting their own! somehow the thunder are them now??? Shit is beyond stupid!! Anyone think pacers will turn it over 25x again? I sure don’t. And that comparison to the lakers snd Philly so dumb cause like I said shaq would have pushed okc around, pacers are way stronger dudes than okc stick figures like SGA and Chet!!
It gets better, then I heard them talking bout how after nuggets stole game one they beat the nuggets by 43 next game! Why is that relevant and what do pacers and nuggets have in common other than winning game 1 in okc? I know what they don’t have in common. Nuggets were content to win 1 game in okc, they had no depth and were tired for game 2, plus im sure once they were buried early they threw in the towel to save their energy. Pacers damn sure havnt been content with taking 1 road game in any series and they ain’t gonna be laying down here happy to get 1. If okc wins by even 20+ I’ll quit watching again but it not happening. Maybe they cover but I doubt it, there no fucjing way I would lay it even tho I kinda do think okc will win this one, they deserve that much respect but not -11 respect. That is asinine, they making it to where you can only play 1 side!
It gets better, then I heard them talking bout how after nuggets stole game one they beat the nuggets by 43 next game! Why is that relevant and what do pacers and nuggets have in common other than winning game 1 in okc? I know what they don’t have in common. Nuggets were content to win 1 game in okc, they had no depth and were tired for game 2, plus im sure once they were buried early they threw in the towel to save their energy. Pacers damn sure havnt been content with taking 1 road game in any series and they ain’t gonna be laying down here happy to get 1. If okc wins by even 20+ I’ll quit watching again but it not happening. Maybe they cover but I doubt it, there no fucjing way I would lay it even tho I kinda do think okc will win this one, they deserve that much respect but not -11 respect. That is asinine, they making it to where you can only play 1 side!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
even tho I expected harkenstien not to get much more than 15 min a game this series I thought it was odd okc didn’t start him like they been doing all year. You come in a massive favs that can’t possibly be beat and you change your starting lineup before game one? That some weak sauce if I ever seen it, pacers didn’t change their lineup, I was really mad how many minutes toppin got but after he looked awful early on it turns out Rick Carlye might know his team more than me! Lol. Toppin draining 3s was huge, not to mention taking haliburton off the ball and letting nebhard run the offense while checking SGA on d! The coaching mismatch was drastic in game 1 and it will only get worse as the deeper a series goes typically the more coaching matters! I’d bet my left and Right nut there no way pacers lose 4 straight, maybe they lose in 6 or 7 but im
Not so sure. The more fake confidence the tv idiots keep saying they still have in okc im not so sure. Okc isn’t a great team, I was kinda arguing that when they were looking dominant in the 1st half last night. They are young as fuck, 2 of their best players are skinny, their coach is already getting circles run around him and that will only get worse. Anyone see that block by matherin? That was a grown man block right there!! The most amazing stat last night was okc only scored like 11 points or something off those 25 turnovers, normally they destroy a team who turns it over 20x! Pacers are strong and got back on d and forced missed shots, they held okc to 39% from the field despite all the turnovers! I can’t believe ppl confident in okc
Not so sure. The more fake confidence the tv idiots keep saying they still have in okc im not so sure. Okc isn’t a great team, I was kinda arguing that when they were looking dominant in the 1st half last night. They are young as fuck, 2 of their best players are skinny, their coach is already getting circles run around him and that will only get worse. Anyone see that block by matherin? That was a grown man block right there!! The most amazing stat last night was okc only scored like 11 points or something off those 25 turnovers, normally they destroy a team who turns it over 20x! Pacers are strong and got back on d and forced missed shots, they held okc to 39% from the field despite all the turnovers! I can’t believe ppl confident in okc
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Dont you think their game 3 efforts have been a product of winning 2 on the road? I do. I think they probably win those 2 away and get a tad complacent. 1st off I don’t think for one minute they get their doors blown off, I do kinda think okc wins but I wouldn’t bet on it, especially since books making it impossible to do so imo. There no chance im so confident id lay -600 or -11!! That is just dumb cause I fully expect pacers to play way better in gm2. Okc might play awesome but I still don’t think that a blowout unless you think they turn it over that much again? I don’t think they will seeing how they only turned it over 6x in second half. Anyways I wouldn’t discount pacers gm3 if it is 1-1, if they go home to 2-0 again then yes by all means I’ll be on okc also long as not more than -6 or so. Assuming they go to Indy 1-1 then I’ll be running a ml chase on pacers to Win one at home since we will still be getting nice plus money since okc is apparently right next to the Kobe/shaq lakers and Jordan bulls far as historically great teams, apparently they have passed up warriors already cause havnt heard that comparison yet! Lol
divol
The Spurs can suck my manhood
That's one hell of a stat... Waiting for a team to come back from 0 - 3 deficit in the series next...
divol
The Spurs can suck my manhood
I think we need to look at him from point can he evolve together with the players. I never liked him as far as coaching goes, but he did very nice job in D-League + he keeps evolving. I'm sure next season, he will be much better coach after making all the way to the Finals (and winning the title
). Carlisle been through it all, so it's a bit not fair to compare young promising coach to probably future HOF... IF Thunder lose, I still wouldn't fire Daigneault if he has players trust.
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