The Bowl Season Thread

[OnFireSports]

I will post all my bowl plays in this thread. I run an ATS confidence pool each year with family and friends that gets about 40 entries. I am going to use that as a template to make my picks. Picks will be based upon data from the pool's picks. I will try to find a sweet spot in the data and follow the trends as they emerge.

Happy Bowling Season

 

[Grind_4_Mine]

:shake:

 

[OnFireSports]

We ended up with 29 people in my pool.

Majority picks in the first game were 20-9 on NM and 17-12 on BYU.

In the 3rd game the picks are 19-10 on App State. I'll follow the trend and fade the majority.

Ohio +7.5, 1.1 for 1 unit

 

[booksbestfriend]

Question I have is, why would you give against the majority? You requested participants from a gambling forum and bet against the flow?

 

[OnFireSports]

The 29 people in my pool are some of the biggest degens around. Not one guy is a career winner when it comes to gambling. I have some epic mush's in the field. You're going to want to be on the opposite side of the majority of these guys.

 

[booksbestfriend]

Gotcha.

 

[OnFireSports]

The 4th game of the day is split 21-8 in favor of GA State. I think a lot of the picks are on GA State because the line in the pool is +3.5 versus the current line of +1. I'm guessing a lot of guys saw that and took GA State. Also Billy Walters has been fucking around with that GA state team all year and I suspect he's behind the line move, so I am going to pass on this game.

The final game of the day is split 17-12 in favor of Arkansas State. I'll fade the majority here and take LA Tech. The game is in LA so I'm hoping they have a home crowd advantage. LA schools have historically traveled well to this bowl. I also think the Sun Belt is a much weaker conference.

LA Tech -1, 1.1 for 1 unit

 

[OnFireSports]

2-0 +2 units

Fading the majority picks would have been 4-1 on the day. I'll be back tomorrow. GL in the No Fun League today fellas.

 

[booksbestfriend]

Will be watching this for sure. Thanks for the leg work.

 

[OnFireSports]

Picks are 16-13 W. Kentucky today.

South Florida +3, 1.10 for 1 unit

 

[OnFireSports]

2-1 +0.9 units

 

[OnFireSports]

I was busy with work today so I was unable to post for the early game.

Split was 16-13 in favor of Utah State

In the late game we have a split of 18-11 on Temple. When digging into the numbers the top guys who have 5 or 4 wins in the pool are all on Temple. The bottom feeders with 1 or 2 wins are all on Toledo. I'll fade the bottom feeders and go with Temple in this one.

Temple -2.5 -120, 1.20 units for 1