The big game nobody seems to be talking about....

broadwayjoe

May 5Dimes MLB 2nd place
Missouri @ Nebraska +11

Missouri @ Nebraska +11

haven't really seen a whole lot of interest in this game either way this week (think i've only seen it as leans in ETGs and Gifted's threads); is nebraska's defense good enough to slow down missouri to cover, or can missouri not only win at nebraska for the first time in 30 years:seeya:, but also win by double digits??? please, either take my finger off the trigger of nebraska, or tell me why i should pull it...i'd like to get some insight from everyone who has looked at this game (etg and gifted since they actually have leans, and opposing leans), vegaskyle, fondy (i'm sure you'll be on this one way or another), nropp, sportsnut, ontime, etc etc etc...break it down! i'll start with a neutral preview...much more to come:






Missouri has had little trouble racking up points en route to an undefeated nonconference record, but scoring expects to get tougher as the Big 12 season opens against a Nebraska team that has its sights set on shutting out the Tigers' high-powered offense.
Fourth-ranked Missouri begins the defense of its North Division title as it tries to win its first game at Nebraska in 30 years on Saturday night.
The Tigers (4-0) had a bye last week, but still managed to move up two spots in the AP poll after top-ranked Southern California, third-ranked Georgia and fourth-ranked Florida were all upset.
Missouri, which is aiming for a chance to play in the BCS championship game, is using those losses as motivation.
"You have to expect anyone can beat anyone on any day and bring your A-game all the time," Tigers quarterback Chase Daniel said.
Daniel had an outstanding performance in Missouri's final nonconference game, a 42-21 victory over Buffalo on Sept. 20. The senior quarterback passed for a career-high 439 yards, two touchdowns and set a Big 12 record with 20 consecutive completions.
Through four games, Daniel has completed 101-of-133 passes for 1,412 yards, 12 touchdowns and one interception, and leads Missouri's spread offense that ranks second in the nation in both scoring (53.8 points per game) and total offense (595.5 yards per game).
In addition to Daniel, the Tigers are loaded with offensive weapons, as receivers Jeremy Maclin and Chase Coffman are averaging more than 90 yards per game, and Derrick Washington, who has rushed for two touchdowns in each of his first four games, is running for an average of 90.3 yards per game.
"They're good across the board," Nebraska (3-1) coach Bo Pelini said. "They have a good running game and a good passing game, but it starts with the quarterback. Then you throw in Maclin. You can't focus on stopping one guy or you'll get killed."
Although Pelini is aware of all the Tigers' talent, the first-year Cornhuskers coach says his team's goal is to keep them off the scoreboard.
"I've never gone into any game making concessions," Pelini said. "I won't start this week. We're going to play the best we possibly can. We're going to try and shut them out."
That will be quite a challenge for a defense that allowed 377 yards in last Saturday's 35-30 home loss to Virginia Tech. The Huskers are allowing an average of 19.5 points and 354.8 yards this year.
Nebraska had no luck in stopping Daniel last season, as he was 33-of-47 for 401 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions in Missouri's 41-6 home win.
The Huskers hopes things go better at home, where they've won 15 straight over the Tigers since Missouri's 35-31 victory over then-No. 2 Nebraska on Nov. 18, 1978.
Nebraska also looks to take advantage of facing a Missouri pass defense that ranks 112th in the nation, giving up 279.5 passing yards a game. Huskers quarterback Joe Ganz passed for 278 yards, two touchdowns and one interception in Saturday's loss to the Hokies, and is averaging 249.3 passing yards a game.
Missouri's rush defense, meanwhile, is ranked fourth in the Big 12 (99.0 ypg), and limited Buffalo to just 49 yards on 35 attempts in its latest win.
Nebraska running back Marlon Lucky had only 17 rushing yards on eight carries versus Virginia Tech after running for 103 yards on 15 attempts in the Huskers' 38-7 win over New Mexico State on Sept. 13. In last season's loss to Missouri, Lucky rushed for 67 yards on 17 carries and caught seven passes for 56 yards.
Nebraska went just 2-2 in conference games at Memorial Stadium last season, but has had no trouble in its conference home openers, winning 30 consecutive since a 24-21 loss to Iowa State in 1978.
 
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Lot of points to lay on road but Missouri knows they can give games away trying to be conservative... so they will be passing up 10 with 4 minutes left going for another score...

So the question in covering is... can Nebraska win this game? Or come close to it? They go behind 2 possessions and it's over.
 
I've been leaning MIssouri since I saw the line.

Nebraska doesn't have the horses on D to slow down the Tigers and while Nebraska has some offense, the OL is a big issue right now and Missouri should break the heat. I'll be shocked if Will Moore doesn't blitz a dozen times.

The only issue I have is that the game is in Lincoln. In the end, I'm pretty sure I'll jump on the Missouri train. Two weeks to prepare. And if Nebraska couldn't find an answer for Tyrod Taylor, no running game, and average WR... what are they going to do to stop Chase Daniel, Derrick Washington (2 TD/game avg), and Maclin/Perry/Coffman/Saunders?
 
Va Tech sorry Offense Ripped the Nebraska "d". I was at the game and Tyrod Taylor had Open recievers running all over the field. Missouri Scores 50+ the question is how many times can Nebraska Score?

Nebraska can't run the ball. The Best RB nebraska has only had 4 carries for 21 yards. Lucky had 8 carries for 16? Ganz had 4 passes tipped at the line of scrimmage.

I like the over. But if forced to make a pick I would say that Missouri covers this number easily.
 
I would like to see Nebraska keep this one close because I think Mizzou is a bit overrated right now. Their defense has not shown me anything, and I already know Chase Daniel is more than capable. Still, I see Mizzou winning by 20+
 
missouri defense has some major question marks for me. and although i know what you guys are saying about vt, i don't think a+b=c here; conference games are so much different...didn't an inferior nebraska team go to wake and beat them on their turf last year...it's tough to project non-conf games into conference. vt also has a helluva run defense...far better than missouri's imo, and didn't lucky have 1000 yards last year and about 4 ypc vs missouri -- the running game was basically taken away from them after the first drive of the second half because of the way the score was ...i think they'll be able to run from what i've seen from missouri and missouri won't have 1000x coaching edge in this game like last year...coaching has evened up A LOT...

sounds strange because they've been a solid and improving squad for the last few years, but they haven't really had that many true road games against decent opponents in a truly HUNTED role they find themselves in this year..

mort, isn't will moore a little banged up with a foot/ankle? i thought i read he was questionable....

that's a lot of history fellas, and a night game for neb undoubtedly their biggest game of the year...
 
i'm not convinced missouri gets to 50, but if they do, i still don't think that guarantees a cover
 
i guess i'm all by myself trying to build a case for nebraska here....gifted...lil help, buddy haha
 
why is gameday at vandy and not here ?? because they will be at big12 red river shootout next week ??

i dont know what to make of this ... a lot of technicals point to nebraska in this game and , as someone else told me , nebraska woke up a little late vs VT. But fundamentals point to a missouri cover.

staying as far away as i can.
 
Broadway, you are right, I did have Mizz as one of my leans but as of now, I've backed off of that.

At first, I thought Mizz would be able to score at will on Nebraska, and that still may hold true, but, then I looked over Mizz schedule and this is the first true road game. I watched their defense play Illinois, its the only time I've seen Mizz this year, and I thought their 2nd half performance was shardy at best. How many times does Illy have to throw deep and complete it before you put a safety over the top? I think anytime Juice Williams throws for 450yds on you, its pretty bad, and that no offense to Juice, he just isn't the QB I imagine going off like that

Ganz isn't off to a great start but he isn't bad by any means and I think Nebraska can do some scoring on Mizz. I'm a bit uneasy about laying the 11 here in this game with a defense I don't trust, and a coach who historically on the road has been less than average.
 
Frankly, Ganz isn't a good QB. Look who he has gotten his numbers against. NoD U. I understand that theMU d is not any good but I Like the Total to go into the 80s.

Why? Nebraska cant run and missouri wont. A lot of passing in this game. Look for a 55-38 type game. Also. Bo pelini gave Mizzery some BB material today. He stated that NU was going for the shut out. rotflmao. He's gonna have to blitz to get pressure on booger eater. thats not good.

Maybe he meant that NU was gonna try and get mizzery to go 3-out for the first time this year.

Maybe nebraska gets a few TOs to get a lead. but either way there are no players on the "d". This game goes over 68.
 
This one is tough, I can see Mizzou blowing them out on paper. The last few years Nebraska has had trouble re-focusing after a loss. I'm hoping a coaching change helps.
My bet would be a 2nd half for Mizzou. It could be close through the 3rd, but I think with about 20 min left Nebraska will lose pace.
 
Va Tech sorry Offense Ripped the Nebraska "d". I was at the game and Tyrod Taylor had Open recievers running all over the field. Missouri Scores 50+ the question is how many times can Nebraska Score?

Nebraska can't run the ball. The Best RB nebraska has only had 4 carries for 21 yards. Lucky had 8 carries for 16? Ganz had 4 passes tipped at the line of scrimmage.

I like the over. But if forced to make a pick I would say that Missouri covers this number easily.


xactly :shake:
 
kyle, no clue..i'd think they'd be in wisconsin before vanderbilt too. hell, there's several games i'm more excited about even right in the sec than that vandy game

etg, agree buddy...and i don't see that ganz is gotten off to that bad of a start; i see what you're saying because he hasn't been hanging the numbers up like the end of last year but he still completed 65% of his passes in the loss to vt; just couldn't get anything down the field...aside from that game, they just weren't throwing it that much because they were beating teams...the sjst game was relatively close and he didn't light up the scoreboard but still hit 68% of his passes

dapook, i flat out disagree here...the guy threw for nearly 500 yards per game in the 3 games he got in while piling up a 163 rating. and this wasn't too great defenses, no...but they were conference games with even or better opponents, two of them on the road!!! guy can sling, and he's fairly smart with the football
 
i would have never ever thought at the beginning of this year that vandy would be considered a top 20 team at any point of this year...mind blowing to me
 
"dapook, i flat out disagree here...the guy threw for nearly 500 yards per game in the 3 games he got in while piling up a 163 rating. and this wasn't too great defenses, no...but they were conference games with even or better opponents, two of them on the road!!! guy can sling, and he's fairly smart with the football[/quote]


I understand that numbers don't lie. Ganz tossed the ball around on who exactly? Kansas? Colorado? He throws way too many interceptions. and gets a few too many passes knocked down at the line. He's an average QB at best. Not good. Not great. Not terrible. Average.

I would bet on the great QB to cover a low number even tho he's a booger eater. This number is gonna be decided by the Nebraska defense. I think Ganz and crew will get to 35 in lincoln. The question is gonna be can the NU "d" hold MU to 45? I wouldn't put my money on it.
 
I think Vandy is on borrowed time. Credit to them for what they've done but you can not survive the whole year like they are. Last in total offense, last in total defense, 1st in turnover margin
 
I think Vandy is on borrowed time. Credit to them for what they've done but you can not survive the whole year like they are. Last in total offense, last in total defense, 1st in turnover margin

:shake:
 
I think Vandy is on borrowed time. Credit to them for what they've done but you can not survive the whole year like they are. Last in total offense, last in total defense, 1st in turnover margin


:shake: just wish i had the balls to predict when their time runs out...
 
I think Vandy is on borrowed time. Credit to them for what they've done but you can not survive the whole year like they are. Last in total offense, last in total defense, 1st in turnover margin



put vandy up against uconn and they will both find a way to come out of the game with a win ATS....
 
^hahahhahaha

well i took the bait...so all of your mizzou bets should be safe haha. gl guys...don't know why but i'm really looking forward to this game. i hope we're all shocked tomorrow night
 
FWIW...Nebraska SHOULD BE favored in this game by my numbers.

:smiley_acbe:


:36_11_6:

now that's funny.

not saying the cornholers can't win the home game. but i look at a ton of shit every week...all the power rankings, computer stuff, etc...and i have yet to see one (out of more than a dozen) that had nebraska favored here.

you're unique in that respect, handi :shake:
 
Seems the bookies are just begging people to take Mizzou. Even here in Nebraska, everyone is saying that the Tigers will cover the number. You know what that means. The key to the game is going to be the Husker red zone D. So far, it's been outstanding this year, but Mizzou is a different animal. I'd look for much more of a run game from the Corn than you saw last week vs. va tech. I think the Huskers can hang. The crowd will be nuts if the Huskers can make a game of it in the first half. No bet for me.
 
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