Saturday's Best Bets: Add This College Football Week 5 Parlay
Texas Longhorns vs. TCU Horned Frogs
Saturday, October 2, 2021 at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas
History
This will be a game where a lot of bettors look at the most recent results and, driven by recency bias, bet on Texas and the "over." They will be wrong on both counts.
A 70-35 win over another Big 12 opponent no doubt looks attractive. But in recent years, Texas has been marked by inconsistency on a week-to-week basis, such that one almost automatically has to expect a let-down from this team after a big game.
Last year, for example, the Longhorns beat Texas Tech 63-56 a week before scoring 32 fewer points and losing straight-up, as 10.5-point favorites, to TCU.
But this is more about TCU than it is about Texas. Since joining the Big 12, Gary Patterson's Horned Frogs are 7-2 straight-up and ATS against Texas.
Just as it's deceptively easy to count on Texas to win because of its last game, it is foolishly easy to discount the Horned Frogs because of their last game.
History shows, though, that the week before Texas doesn't matter for TCU.
While losing, as nine-point favorites, by eight points to SMU may seem disturbing, TCU is consistent with respect to how it plays the week before facing Texas.
In fact, the Horned Frogs are 0-6 SU in their last six years against the team that precedes the Longhorns on their schedule.
Diagnosing The SMU Loss
What is completely consistent with my point is the way that TCU lost last week.
The Horned Frogs did not lose to SMU because they lacked athletic talent or because they were qualitatively inferior.
They lost because they were disinterested -- and they were disinterested because they knew they had Texas on deck.
Against SMU, TCU committed nine penalties for 61 yards with the offensive line killing drives with preventable holds and false starts.
Defensively, blown coverages and miscommunication were rampant. The tackling betrayed a total lack of effort that was embarrassing to behold.
Nevertheless, it was still extra reassuring for next week to see the versatile TJ Carter join the cornerback group and play well, individually, in coverage.
Ground Game
The Horned Frogs will cover and the "under" will hit largely because TCU plays ball control with its ground game.
Their offensive line really is better than what it showed last week. Based on the returning snaps from last year, plus the addition of a former multi-year starter at Memphis, Obinna Eze, this is an experienced group. With all upperclassmen, it's also a veteran one.
TCU's offensive line is arguably strongest in the middle where Steve Avila, an All-Big 12 honoree last year, and Wes Harris have returned.
The middle is also where the Longhorn front seven was gashed repeatedly in Arkansas.
Texas' only loss this season came to a Razorback squad that generated 333 rushing yards on 47 carries. While Arkansas is a very good squad this year, this rushing total was nearly 71 yards higher than its average.
A strong ground game is evidently important and doable against the Longhorns.
Max Duggan
TCU has the advantage, that Arkansas lacked, of having a pass-first quarterback to give its offense a more reliable second dimension.
Duggan epitomizes the Horned Frog mentality in that he plays poorly, with a low completion rate, the week before facing Texas, but then bounces back.
After working on his deep ball and strongly increasing his YAC, Duggan benefits from a loaded receiving crew that returned its top four guys from last year and that will face a Longhorn secondary lacking the same kind of returning depth.
There are speedsters like JD Spielman, who regularly amassed over 800 yards a season when at Nebraska, and other big-play talents like 2020 All-Big 12 honoree Quentin Johnston, whose yard-after-catch totals attest to the difficulty that defenses have in bringing him down.
Total
In addition to TCU running the ball 50+ times to control the clock like it did last year, the weather may play a role in the total. It is expected to rain heavily.
This will also be a good opportunity for Frog pass rushers to produce more measurable stats. Ochaun Mathis, for example, accrued nine sacks last year and can find success against a continually problematic Longhorn offensive line that ranks 80th in rate of sacks allowed.
Best Bet: Parlay Horned Frogs +5 at -110 & Under 66.5 at -110 at +264 odds with Bovada
Texas Longhorns vs. TCU Horned Frogs
Saturday, October 2, 2021 at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas
History
This will be a game where a lot of bettors look at the most recent results and, driven by recency bias, bet on Texas and the "over." They will be wrong on both counts.
A 70-35 win over another Big 12 opponent no doubt looks attractive. But in recent years, Texas has been marked by inconsistency on a week-to-week basis, such that one almost automatically has to expect a let-down from this team after a big game.
Last year, for example, the Longhorns beat Texas Tech 63-56 a week before scoring 32 fewer points and losing straight-up, as 10.5-point favorites, to TCU.
But this is more about TCU than it is about Texas. Since joining the Big 12, Gary Patterson's Horned Frogs are 7-2 straight-up and ATS against Texas.
Just as it's deceptively easy to count on Texas to win because of its last game, it is foolishly easy to discount the Horned Frogs because of their last game.
History shows, though, that the week before Texas doesn't matter for TCU.
While losing, as nine-point favorites, by eight points to SMU may seem disturbing, TCU is consistent with respect to how it plays the week before facing Texas.
In fact, the Horned Frogs are 0-6 SU in their last six years against the team that precedes the Longhorns on their schedule.
Diagnosing The SMU Loss
What is completely consistent with my point is the way that TCU lost last week.
The Horned Frogs did not lose to SMU because they lacked athletic talent or because they were qualitatively inferior.
They lost because they were disinterested -- and they were disinterested because they knew they had Texas on deck.
Against SMU, TCU committed nine penalties for 61 yards with the offensive line killing drives with preventable holds and false starts.
Defensively, blown coverages and miscommunication were rampant. The tackling betrayed a total lack of effort that was embarrassing to behold.
Nevertheless, it was still extra reassuring for next week to see the versatile TJ Carter join the cornerback group and play well, individually, in coverage.
Ground Game
The Horned Frogs will cover and the "under" will hit largely because TCU plays ball control with its ground game.
Their offensive line really is better than what it showed last week. Based on the returning snaps from last year, plus the addition of a former multi-year starter at Memphis, Obinna Eze, this is an experienced group. With all upperclassmen, it's also a veteran one.
TCU's offensive line is arguably strongest in the middle where Steve Avila, an All-Big 12 honoree last year, and Wes Harris have returned.
The middle is also where the Longhorn front seven was gashed repeatedly in Arkansas.
Texas' only loss this season came to a Razorback squad that generated 333 rushing yards on 47 carries. While Arkansas is a very good squad this year, this rushing total was nearly 71 yards higher than its average.
A strong ground game is evidently important and doable against the Longhorns.
Max Duggan
TCU has the advantage, that Arkansas lacked, of having a pass-first quarterback to give its offense a more reliable second dimension.
Duggan epitomizes the Horned Frog mentality in that he plays poorly, with a low completion rate, the week before facing Texas, but then bounces back.
After working on his deep ball and strongly increasing his YAC, Duggan benefits from a loaded receiving crew that returned its top four guys from last year and that will face a Longhorn secondary lacking the same kind of returning depth.
There are speedsters like JD Spielman, who regularly amassed over 800 yards a season when at Nebraska, and other big-play talents like 2020 All-Big 12 honoree Quentin Johnston, whose yard-after-catch totals attest to the difficulty that defenses have in bringing him down.
Total
In addition to TCU running the ball 50+ times to control the clock like it did last year, the weather may play a role in the total. It is expected to rain heavily.
This will also be a good opportunity for Frog pass rushers to produce more measurable stats. Ochaun Mathis, for example, accrued nine sacks last year and can find success against a continually problematic Longhorn offensive line that ranks 80th in rate of sacks allowed.
Best Bet: Parlay Horned Frogs +5 at -110 & Under 66.5 at -110 at +264 odds with Bovada
