Texas A&M vs. Missouri Template Article

[VirginiaCavs]

Saturday Week 11 College Football: Best Bets Saturday, November 8

Week 11 Odds (Missouri +7)

Texas A&M opened as a six-point favorite in this matchup. The Aggies are now favored by seven points. This line shift reflects the recency bias of bettors, who are influenced by the Aggies’ most recent, dominating win over LSU, even though the Tigers were free-falling with their head coach who was fired after the game.

Bettors also lack the same level of confidence in Missouri’s backup quarterback Matt Zollers, who isn’t as athletic as Missouri’s injured starting quarterback. The Tigers lost their last game, by a touchdown, to Vanderbilt. I don’t agree with this lack of confidence in Zollers, because he is well-regarded as a former four-star prospect with a strong arm and adequate mobility. He came in unexpectedly against Vanderbilt and helped Missouri score more points than the quarterback who started the game. He’ll enter this game against the Aggies with two weeks of preparation time behind him.

Saturday Week 11 Picks (Missouri +7)

Zollers was Missouri’s best passer against Vanderbilt, and indeed he has the best arm in Missouri’s quarterback room. If Texas A&M stacks the box to challenge Zollers because he is his team’s backup quarterback, then Zollers will punish them for doing so. But Texas A&M’s track record on the road against good offenses suggests that Zollers will punish the Aggies no matter what. Against Notre Dame’s 14th-ranked offense, the Aggies gave up 40 points in South Bend. Against Arkansas’ tenth-ranked offense, the Aggies gave up 42 points in Fayetteville. Missouri with its 15th-ranked offense has the balanced attack to replicate those high point totals.

A run-heavy team in general, Texas A&M relied heavily on its rush attack to win those two road games by a combined total of four points. But Missouri owns the sixth-best run defense. When Missouri nearly upset eighth-ranked Alabama, the Tigers were victimized by Alabama’s quarterback, whose stretch of strong performances positioned him in the Heisman conversation. The Aggies don’t pose such a threat. Whereas Alabama scored 27 points in a three-point win at Missouri, the Aggies’ heavier reliance on their rush attack will lead to a lower scoring output from them that, given their defense’s track record against good offenses on the road, creates a negative outlook for them overall. Therefore, I recommend Missouri +7 at -115 with Bovada.

Texas A&M’s Rueben Owens under 58.5 Rushing Yards at -115 with Bovada

My favorite player to target for player props is Texas A&M’s starting running back. Owens has faced two top-eleven run defenses before. He mustered five rushing yards against the Fighting Irish and 52 rushing yards against Auburn. He’s only exceeded 58 rushing yards against Mississippi State and Arkansas, which are both teams that rank 98th or worse in run defense. His rush yardage total thus feels way too high against Missouri’s sixth-ranked run defense.

In addition to the matchup, the game script will not be favorable for him. Texas A&M’s defensive struggles on the road will enable Missouri’s offense to achieve a high point total. To keep pace, the Aggies are going to have to pass more. Their struggles against Missouri’s seventh-ranked pass rush with its elite pass-rushing personnel will make running even harder for Owens because sacks will immediately preclude third-and-short situations and, over the course of the game, help position the Aggies to try to satisfy their need for more points in less time by passing more.

 

[2daBank]

Agree with lot of this. Hesitant to play the Owens under even tho I do think running on mizzou is tough sledding. My issue is while I understand the thought process I’m not so convinced mizzou will hang a big enough number to force AM to throw to keep up. The thing bout Drinkowitz and Mizzou offense if they are having the kind of success you envision that usually means they are gonna have long clock sucking possessions more so than score a bunch. They rarely get out of that mode unless they are the ones down and forced to throw, with a fresh qb making his 1st start against Aggies pass rush that been equally as good as mizzou’s and mizzou kinda struggling to protect I find it incredibly hard to think he opens the offense up when he perfectly happy playing a grind it out clock killing type game. Also there a chance a front comes thru Columbia right around game time that could make throwing more difficult. Certainly not saying Owens under is a bad play but I’m just not sure it will come because lack of rushes by the AM offense, whether he gets the majority the carries isn’t always so clear either so another solid reason for his under. Just think points gonna be a bit harder to come by for both offenses to the extent I’d be surprised if either abandoned their run games.

 

[B.A.R.]

Great stuff @2daBank and @VirginiaCavs

 

[2daBank]

Agree the line crazy inflated, how the hell AM was damn near a pick vs lsu and laying -7 here is beyond me? I’m reasonably confident in the qb. I do think Mizzou might miss pribula legs tho, especially if the weather turns a little nasty. That said I am hoping the front comes thru before kick or during game at least cause I do have a little concern with Mizzou corners vs the Aggies WRs. So far all I’ve been playing is Aggies Tt under 27.5, the offense been living a pretty charmed life far as not facing many the elite defenses up to this point. aub the only other really good d they have faced and Aub offense doesn’t control games like mizzou, they managed all of 16 at home in that game. It probably won’t be great for me if mizzou does hang a big number but I’ll be on the +7 and a bit the ml also, the way I see it Aggies are either losing this game or at Texas in a few weeks so I’ll fire here knowing I expect to get it back if I get beat in this one.

 

[Win4L]

I was leaning Mizz but after seeing Bench with a dime play on A/M I’ll sit this one out.