Texans vs. Jets Thursday Night Football Picks: Houston Will Extend New York's Demise
Houston Texans vs. New York Jets
Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 8:15 p.m. ET at MetLife Stadium
The Jets Are Free-Falling
Right now, the Jets are an auto-fade.
They are suffering an 0-5 ATS run, and this run does not show signs of ending.
Regardless of the deceptive final score in their loss to Minnesota, four of these five ATS losses weren't close.
They lost as eight-point favorites to Denver, lost by six as 2.5-point underdogs to Minnesota, lost by three as a one-point underdog to Buffalo, lost by 22 as small favorites in Pittsburgh, and lost by three as seven-point favorites to New England.
While I will also discuss matchup factors that favor Houston in this game, the primary issue is that New York is a horrible mess of an organization that suffers from terrible ownership and a terrible coaching staff.
Players surely are aware of what Jets fans and I are aware of, and this demoralizing knowledge is likely causing them to underperform.
This knowledge will help elucidate why the Jets are underperforming so significantly relative to the odds and why one should expect them to continue to fail to cover spreads after people were so high on them heading into the season because of the high-profile names on their roster.
Losing Robert Saleh
New York fired head coach Robert Saleh after the Jets lost to Minnesota.
The Jets, under Saleh, were terrible offensively, and they were annual losers. This is true. Saleh does not deserve to be a head coach.
However, this mess of an organization let Saleh go without a good plan.
So, the Jets are suffering without Saleh and will continue to suffer without him because they still haven't fixed the issue that Saleh's departure is creating.
This issue is that the Jets now lack a good defensive mind.
When Robert Saleh was their head coach, the Jets' defense led the NFL or ranked top-three in advanced metrics like success rate, points per drive, and EPA per play.
Saleh was evidently a good defensive mind without whom the Jets have now been burned by Pittsburgh and New England, two teams that exceeded their points-per-game average by over ten points when they faced the Jets, in consecutive weeks.
Some Jets fans will want to push back and claim that I am not giving enough credit to Jeff Ulbrich, who was Saleh's defensive coordinator.
While Ulbrich might have contributed to the Jets' success on defense, he is now the interim head coach, so he has to worry about the whole team.
Tampa Bay and Seattle both have defensive-minded head coaches and are struggling on defense because a head coach cannot only focus on one side of the ball.
The takeaway here is that we have every reason to expect offenses to continue to score more points than they normally do, when they face the Jets.
New York's Defensive Decline
Run defense has been a problem for the Jets all season, starting with their season-opener loss to San Francisco.
Two weeks ago, the Steelers' rush attack performed much better than usual against New York. Most recently, New England's did perform poorly but still better than it had been in recent weeks.
New York has a below-average ranking in run defense.
But now subpar quarterbacks like Russell Wilson for the Steelers and Jacoby Brissett for the Patriots, wide receivers like George Pickens for the Steelers and little-known wide receivers like
Kayshon Boutte for New England are embarrassing New York's defense.
Guys like Sauce Gardner, reputed to be an elite cornerback, have regressed, as evident in his passer rating allowed.
Houston's Balanced Offense
The Texans have sufficient quality in both their ground game and pass attack to reach 30 points against the Jets.
For Houston, CJ Stroud is a highly efficient quarterback who is always capable of exceeding 300 yards in a given game.
Whereas New England's quarterbacks lack the deep ball prowess that Wilson showed when he torched the Jets' defense numerous times, Stroud loves to throw deep balls, which are a dangerous weapon for him.
Moreover, Joe Mixon has helped make Houston's rush attack vastly more efficient than it was last year.
Can New York Keep Pace?
The Jets have one of the least efficient rush attacks.
Their entire offense is poorly coached, starting with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, whose lack of creativity, befuddling decisions, statistically evident lack of pre-snap motion, and otherwise archaic concepts limit the ceiling of a New York offense that has failed to exceed 24 points in a game all season.
Regarding their rush attack, their offensive line is doing a poor job blocking and their tight ends are doing an even poorer job. Running back Breece Hall has struggled for much of the year in terms of success rate.
Offensive line coach Keith Carter comes from Tennessee where, in his last season, the Titans' offensive line ranked last-place per PFF.
Hackett and Carter form a horrific coaching duo for the Jets' offense.
Houston's Pass Defense
Arguably, New York's pass attack has a higher ceiling than its rush attack because the latter is held back by poor blocking and because the former boasts its most well-reputed players, such as Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams.
New York's wide receivers are certainly talented. Aaron Rodgers, despite his flaring hamstring helping to restrict his mobility and thus forcing him to be a much more stationary quarterback than he was used to being in his days in Green Bay, can still play somewhat, although he is suffering the worst season of his career, as measured by passer rating.
However, Houston owns the third-best pass defense.
The Texans boast great cornerbacks with which to counter New York's strength at wide receiver.
For Houston, Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter do a fantastic job of limiting the opposing quarterback's completion percentage and passer rating when they are targeted.
Teams are, with relative rarity, having to stack the box against New York's rather inept rush attack, which means that they can devote plenty of resources to stopping the Jets' pass attack.
Houston, with the coverage abilities of its cornerbacks, is in a great position on defense to make the Jets struggle to reach double digits.
Takeaway
The poorly coached and underperforming Jets do not stand a chance against a competent team like Houston.
Houston has the pass attack to hurt New York's defense where it is struggling a lot right now thanks to the likes of Gardner's decline.
Joe Mixon is also helping to advance Houston's offense with his efficient running, which he can continue against the Jets' repeatedly problematic run defense.
The Texans have the quality in its pass defense to take away New York's best chances of succeeding — Rodgers had strong passing numbers in both of his team's victories but suffers a poor outlook against Houston's highly-ranked pass defense.
New York is struggling — failing to beat even the worst teams — and will continue to struggle for the above coaching- and matchup-related reasons.
Best Bet: Texans pk at -110 with BetOnline
Houston Texans vs. New York Jets
Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 8:15 p.m. ET at MetLife Stadium
The Jets Are Free-Falling
Right now, the Jets are an auto-fade.
They are suffering an 0-5 ATS run, and this run does not show signs of ending.
Regardless of the deceptive final score in their loss to Minnesota, four of these five ATS losses weren't close.
They lost as eight-point favorites to Denver, lost by six as 2.5-point underdogs to Minnesota, lost by three as a one-point underdog to Buffalo, lost by 22 as small favorites in Pittsburgh, and lost by three as seven-point favorites to New England.
While I will also discuss matchup factors that favor Houston in this game, the primary issue is that New York is a horrible mess of an organization that suffers from terrible ownership and a terrible coaching staff.
Players surely are aware of what Jets fans and I are aware of, and this demoralizing knowledge is likely causing them to underperform.
This knowledge will help elucidate why the Jets are underperforming so significantly relative to the odds and why one should expect them to continue to fail to cover spreads after people were so high on them heading into the season because of the high-profile names on their roster.
Losing Robert Saleh
New York fired head coach Robert Saleh after the Jets lost to Minnesota.
The Jets, under Saleh, were terrible offensively, and they were annual losers. This is true. Saleh does not deserve to be a head coach.
However, this mess of an organization let Saleh go without a good plan.
So, the Jets are suffering without Saleh and will continue to suffer without him because they still haven't fixed the issue that Saleh's departure is creating.
This issue is that the Jets now lack a good defensive mind.
When Robert Saleh was their head coach, the Jets' defense led the NFL or ranked top-three in advanced metrics like success rate, points per drive, and EPA per play.
Saleh was evidently a good defensive mind without whom the Jets have now been burned by Pittsburgh and New England, two teams that exceeded their points-per-game average by over ten points when they faced the Jets, in consecutive weeks.
Some Jets fans will want to push back and claim that I am not giving enough credit to Jeff Ulbrich, who was Saleh's defensive coordinator.
While Ulbrich might have contributed to the Jets' success on defense, he is now the interim head coach, so he has to worry about the whole team.
Tampa Bay and Seattle both have defensive-minded head coaches and are struggling on defense because a head coach cannot only focus on one side of the ball.
The takeaway here is that we have every reason to expect offenses to continue to score more points than they normally do, when they face the Jets.
New York's Defensive Decline
Run defense has been a problem for the Jets all season, starting with their season-opener loss to San Francisco.
Two weeks ago, the Steelers' rush attack performed much better than usual against New York. Most recently, New England's did perform poorly but still better than it had been in recent weeks.
New York has a below-average ranking in run defense.
But now subpar quarterbacks like Russell Wilson for the Steelers and Jacoby Brissett for the Patriots, wide receivers like George Pickens for the Steelers and little-known wide receivers like
Kayshon Boutte for New England are embarrassing New York's defense.
Guys like Sauce Gardner, reputed to be an elite cornerback, have regressed, as evident in his passer rating allowed.
Houston's Balanced Offense
The Texans have sufficient quality in both their ground game and pass attack to reach 30 points against the Jets.
For Houston, CJ Stroud is a highly efficient quarterback who is always capable of exceeding 300 yards in a given game.
Whereas New England's quarterbacks lack the deep ball prowess that Wilson showed when he torched the Jets' defense numerous times, Stroud loves to throw deep balls, which are a dangerous weapon for him.
Moreover, Joe Mixon has helped make Houston's rush attack vastly more efficient than it was last year.
Can New York Keep Pace?
The Jets have one of the least efficient rush attacks.
Their entire offense is poorly coached, starting with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, whose lack of creativity, befuddling decisions, statistically evident lack of pre-snap motion, and otherwise archaic concepts limit the ceiling of a New York offense that has failed to exceed 24 points in a game all season.
Regarding their rush attack, their offensive line is doing a poor job blocking and their tight ends are doing an even poorer job. Running back Breece Hall has struggled for much of the year in terms of success rate.
Offensive line coach Keith Carter comes from Tennessee where, in his last season, the Titans' offensive line ranked last-place per PFF.
Hackett and Carter form a horrific coaching duo for the Jets' offense.
Houston's Pass Defense
Arguably, New York's pass attack has a higher ceiling than its rush attack because the latter is held back by poor blocking and because the former boasts its most well-reputed players, such as Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams.
New York's wide receivers are certainly talented. Aaron Rodgers, despite his flaring hamstring helping to restrict his mobility and thus forcing him to be a much more stationary quarterback than he was used to being in his days in Green Bay, can still play somewhat, although he is suffering the worst season of his career, as measured by passer rating.
However, Houston owns the third-best pass defense.
The Texans boast great cornerbacks with which to counter New York's strength at wide receiver.
For Houston, Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter do a fantastic job of limiting the opposing quarterback's completion percentage and passer rating when they are targeted.
Teams are, with relative rarity, having to stack the box against New York's rather inept rush attack, which means that they can devote plenty of resources to stopping the Jets' pass attack.
Houston, with the coverage abilities of its cornerbacks, is in a great position on defense to make the Jets struggle to reach double digits.
Takeaway
The poorly coached and underperforming Jets do not stand a chance against a competent team like Houston.
Houston has the pass attack to hurt New York's defense where it is struggling a lot right now thanks to the likes of Gardner's decline.
Joe Mixon is also helping to advance Houston's offense with his efficient running, which he can continue against the Jets' repeatedly problematic run defense.
The Texans have the quality in its pass defense to take away New York's best chances of succeeding — Rodgers had strong passing numbers in both of his team's victories but suffers a poor outlook against Houston's highly-ranked pass defense.
New York is struggling — failing to beat even the worst teams — and will continue to struggle for the above coaching- and matchup-related reasons.
Best Bet: Texans pk at -110 with BetOnline
I know you tired if writing bout these bums but this like a layup for a winner! If jets wernt such broken trash I’d say the dline could cause problems but Texans d will eat and this could easily be the game they pack it in and lose by 50!! 
