Tennis - Week 40 Discussion Thread

ksimpsc said:
good call on Konta PUnit. Fucking Halep up 5-2 in the third and lost it 7-5 blows my mind
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She's a false #2

@AnnaK_4ever: Halep's losses in 2015 by rank
#1-10 — 4
#11-20 — 2
#21-50 — 4
#51+ — 4
For comparison: "inconsistent" Kvitova's worst losses were #43 & #47
 
Canes1 said:
She's a false #2

@AnnaK_4ever: Halep's losses in 2015 by rank
#1-10 — 4
#11-20 — 2
#21-50 — 4
#51+ — 4
For comparison: "inconsistent" Kvitova's worst losses were #43 & #47
Click to expand...

Well Bet Crimes even said the other day she wasn't right. She just waited an extra day to show it
 
ksimpsc said:
Well Bet Crimes even said the other day she wasn't right. She just waited an extra day to show it
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The point was not that she is hurt, it's more that a real #2 in the world doesn't have 8 losses a year to players ranked that far below her
 
Canes1 said:
The point was not that she is hurt, it's more that a real #2 in the world doesn't have 8 losses a year to players ranked that far below her
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oh yea I got that and agree completely. 8 losses to players 21+ 4 to players 51+ is pretty telling. That being said not finishing out the third set up 5-2 and losing it 7-5 is even more telling.
 
yea going to have to rethink some strat with these ladies. Feel like i have been hitting the mark but these favorites are getting beat regularly, especially in the smaller tournaments.
 
I think the real problem with betting the heavy favorites, is the lack of transparency with injuries. Vika has been constantly hurt and we never hear about it until after the match. Lost a good amnt of money on Caro in one of the CT tourneys bc she was injured and no one knew. She came out after match and said there is a ton of pressure to show up at this tourneys from the WTA and maybe that's why the injuries are hidden
 
Canes1 said:
The point was not that she is hurt, it's more that a real #2 in the world doesn't have 8 losses a year to players ranked that far below her
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Those players aren't/weren't beating her in 2014 like they are this year. Her ability/talent hasn't gone anywhere, her injury is the problem. The difficulty is for us is getting a gauge on when it's going to affect her. At this point, after the way she destroyed Pavly, I'm off her matches full stop. You never know when she's going to be at the form that will win her a Slam in the near future, or when her injury is affecting her: there's no mistake she lost to Konta deep in a 3rd set, exactly the time (2+ hours into a match) you'd expect any lingering injury to most affect any player (it being capable of affecting them at all).
 
yea that is a strong point. even slightly injured i would expect her to close out 5-2 but you get broke get in your head injury flares, it all kind of snowballs. I put confidence in her like you said after she dismantled Pavy, but after this loss I am with you just off her completely. I would maybe take a dog I have confidence with in a deeper round but not playing her anymore for sure. Any thoughts for tonight?

Didn't play Vinci last night but think I will tonight against pliskova who had a tough 3 setter against svitolina.

Schmiedlova has performed very well for me as a dog lately but not sure if I want to take her against Muguruza after she demolished Ivano.

Beck lost her last match to Jovanovski in 2014 but has been playing very well and is favored -215 now. I still like her I think in this match.

Want my Halep money back with Venus potentially

Rodina has been streaking may be a live one there though bad history against Larson. Hibino as well could be a potential.

Mens need to check will be back after some dinner
 
Just looking at her form this year, the pattern for her injury affecting her seems to be on an accumulative basis. She's put in good runs of form then stuttered to a few earlyish exits, then repeated the cycle. After Wimbledon she had 2 deep runs in her lead-in tournies to the USO, then made the SF stage of that slam before putting in a no-show. Since then she's lost to Allertova 3 matches into 1 tourney, then lost here just 2 matches in. She did the same thing prior to the FO & Wimbledon: went deep in 3 tournies (Dubai - won, Indian Wells - won, Miami Masters - lost semi-final) before the clay court season started, then had a protracted period of earlyish exits (the Rome Masters being the one exception) that ended wth her 1R exit at Wimbledon. The point being of course is that any early exit allows her injury time to heal, so an extended run of early exits allows her enough recuperation to go on a sustained run without the injury being an issue, but any sustained run leads to the kind of wear & tear that makes her lingering injury an issue again = another series of early exits due to that injury being a real issue. The key thing is, during her deep runs of form only decent players have beaten her: Serena (twice) & Bencic; Pennetta's a decent enough player but her USO thrashing came at the end of her 3rd straight deep run, so I don't have much doubt that was certainly an injury related result.
 
so were her deep runs mainly before or after majors and of course during majors? leading to early exits in small tourneys like these?
 
actually looking at it now too. yea her big run in those few tourneys looked like it made the issue come back right before the french, deep in Birmingham and Wimbledon falls off again
 
ksimpsc said:
Any thoughts for tonight?

Didn't play Vinci last night but think I will tonight against pliskova who had a tough 3 setter against svitolina.

Schmiedlova has performed very well for me as a dog lately but not sure if I want to take her against Muguruza after she demolished Ivano.

Beck lost her last match to Jovanovski in 2014 but has been playing very well and is favored -215 now. I still like her I think in this match.

Want my Halep money back with Venus potentially
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Pliskova certainly has the weapons to beat Vinci, but I wonder if she's yet got the ground game consistency or nouse. Problem for me betting Vinci here is I don't like betting a player when I know the match will be on the other player's racquet, unless I think the latter player is in a really bad spot. While KP is off 2 3-setters, Vinci had to play a 1R match where KP got a bye (& Vinci had to come back from 3-0 down in the 1st vs. Kvitty, so even though she only played a 2 set match she still would've spent a lot of energy in winning that one to my mind) so I don't think the sheer fact KP is off a tough win is fact enough alone to be terminal to her chances here.

The player who has become my personal ATM machine I think should kill Schmiedlova. That Slovakian fluke artist shouldn't even still be playing, while Mugu's played the best tennis I've seen all year from her vs. Stephens and then (in the 2nd & 3rd sets) vs. Ivanobitch. She apparently sacked her coach after she made the final at Wimbledon, so you know that she has the mindset of a winner: who the f gets rid of the person who just guided you to your first Slam final? Someone who is critical of where they're at even during times of relative success, which ticks the box of a sharp mind. Schmiedlova is just another pusher from what I've seen of her, & while that kind of style might work against Wozniacki (whose own leg injury must be partly to blame for her loss after being 6-1 4-1 up) & the still inconsistent Mladenovic, we all saw what Mugu did to a succession of pushers at Wimbledon. Can't back her HtH odds, but I'm liking the Under (I got 21.5, I see 21.0 elsewhere). I'd expect a 6-2/6-3 set, so only a tiebreaker should screw this one up.

Konta I'm not willing to back against. Even if Halep didn't lose cleanly, you have to respect what this chick is doing at present. She's up 50 places in the WR in a short space of time, think she's at least a top 20 talent if she keeps at what's she's currently doing: got the serve, the consistent ground game, some power - really it's about what's between her ears at this point. Venus, I have no idea why she's still playing. But at her age, I start to get skeptical about backing her once she's deep in any tourney. I see her favourite time to lose this year in a tourney is after 3-4 straight wins. She won 5 straight in winning at Auckland at the beginning of the year, but after that she's lost her 4th or 5th match of any given tourney for her best efforts: while those losses have been to at the least decent players, nothing about Konta's form says she isn't one of those (as opposed to this current form of hers being some sort of fluke/flash in the pan effort).

Not impressed with Kerber's play even though she's gotten the results, but Coco is so up & down = this is a wtf knows result for me. Kerber's consistency should see her win, but in 2 or 3 sets? Don't want to play her HtH odds, no idea about the total.
 
Canes1 said:
Love Mugu, her current form is fantastic
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Even in the 1st vs. Ana she didn't play badly. That set you just have to give credit to Ana for playing at the kind of level which saw the Serb beat Serena at the AO last year, she played that well. But Mugu stepped it up, and the Serb just couldn't sustain her own level of play.
 
Ana can't overcome the fact that her BH is so weak. As a result when she's under pressure she forces things with her FH because she fears she'll not get another chance on her FH again in any given rally. Ana's FH naturally works best when she's not feeling like she has to hit winners with it = she rolls players who fail to pressure her BH side; occasionally she'll live with the top players who can & do (as with her win over Serena at the AO), but those latter efforts are so few & far between: she certainly can't sustain a succession of such efforts, consequently she's no threat to win a Slam. Pretty much she'll only beat top players when they have an off night due to whatever issues they have plaguing them.
 
During a change in ends, her coach came out and she was inconsolable about Mugu not hitting it to her FH. Was done after that
 
wasn't she doing that in the previous matches too? complaining to her coach about not enough FH ops?
 
haha at least somebody ended up

Garcia Lopez looks tempting having beat Rosol in their last meeting and as a dog

maybe cilic under or minus the sets

Zverev and Sousa I am looking into more
 
BC, good thoughts on Mugu. She'll be on my card.

Mugu -315 1u
Hibino +160 .5u
Vinci -125 1u
Larsson -225 .5u
Friedsam -125 2u
Garcia-Lopez -135 .5u
Baghdatis -110 .5u

Lean Sousa over Dimitrov pretty good but hoping for a bit better number. if I get +200 it's a definite play. Currently +185.
 
with you on a lot tonight P, which makes me feel better as you crushed out counters last night ahah.

ATP
Bhaghdatis +1.5 2u
Bhaghdatis -110 1u
Sousa +1.5 2u
Sousa +190 1u
Garcia Lopez -135 1.5u
Cilic -1.5 1.5u

WTA
Friedsam -115 1u
Vinci -130 1u
Muguruza -300 3.5u
Beck -225 2u
Hibino +1.5 1u
Hibino +170 .5u
Larsson -235 1.5u
 
Feliciano Lopez -165 1.5u
Nao Hibino +115 .5u
Evgenia Rodina -170 2.5u & -2.5 games -115 1u
Muguruza +105 1u
Kyrgios -145 1u
Bolelli +120 .5u
 
Just fucking around. Haven't capped the past 3 days. A fun parlay

[TABLE="class: Grid, width: 1879"]
<tbody style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">[TR="class: NonAlt, bgcolor: #E9EEEE"]
[TD="class: NoWrap, align: left"]331474634-1[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]10/2/15 1:15am[/TD]
[TD="class: MiddleRight Currency, align: right"]$10.00[/TD]
[TD="class: MiddleRight Currency, align: right"]$3,249.06[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Pending[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]10 Team Parlay[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: NonAlt, bgcolor: #E9EEEE"]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
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[TD="align: left"][/TD]
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[TD="align: left"]Pending[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]10/2/15 2:15am ATP Tennis 149 Nick Kyrgios -150* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Ivo Karlovic [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: NonAlt, bgcolor: #E9EEEE"]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
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[TD="align: left"][/TD]
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[TD="align: left"]Pending[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]10/2/15 4:30am ATP Tennis 174 Feliciano Lopez -160* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Vasek Pospisil [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: NonAlt, bgcolor: #E9EEEE"]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Pending[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]10/2/15 3:15am ATP Tennis 401 Tomas Berdych -473* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Jiri Vesely [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: NonAlt, bgcolor: #E9EEEE"]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
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[TD="align: left"]Pending[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]10/2/15 2:00am ATP Tennis 426 Simone Bolelli +125* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Tommy Robredo [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: NonAlt, bgcolor: #E9EEEE"]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
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[TD="align: left"]Pending[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]10/2/15 8:30am ATP Tennis 101 David Ferrer -350* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Mikhail Kukushkin [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: NonAlt, bgcolor: #E9EEEE"]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
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[TD="align: left"][/TD]
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[TD="align: left"]Pending[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]10/2/15 6:30am ATP Tennis 126 Benjamin Becker +348* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Grigor Dimitrov [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: NonAlt, bgcolor: #E9EEEE"]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
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[TD="align: left"][/TD]
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[TD="align: left"]Pending[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]10/2/15 7:15am ATP Tennis 450 Guillermo Garcia-Lopez -130* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Adrian Mannarino [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: NonAlt, bgcolor: #E9EEEE"]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
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[TD="align: left"]Pending[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]10/2/15 6:00am ATP Tennis 474 Marin Cilic -205* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Hyeon Chung [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: NonAlt, bgcolor: #E9EEEE"]
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[TD="align: left"]Pending[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]10/2/15 3:00am WTA Tennis 701 Venus Williams -165* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Roberta Vinci [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: NonAlt, bgcolor: #E9EEEE"]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
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[TD="align: left"]Pending[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]10/2/15 6:30am WTA Tennis 730 Angelique Kerber -123* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Garbine Muguruza [/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
back in town so I will pop a few in

Doubles:
Kuznetsova/Stosur -280 2.5u
Benecic/Strycova -250 2.5u
Kops-Jones/Spears -160 2u
 
ATP:
Berdych -450 2.5u
Berdych/Robredo U21.5 1u
Ferrer -180 1u

WTA:
SChmiedlova -356 2.5u
Barthel -250 2.5u
Bondarenko/Strycova O21 1u
Pliskova -125 1u
Penetta -1.5 1.5u
Suarez Navarro +1.5 2.5u
Suarez Navarro -105 1u
Mattek Sands -130 1u
Radwanska -1.5 1.5u
Cibulkova/Jankovic O20.5
Svitolina -356 2.5u
Duque Marino +1.5 2.5u
Duque Marino +115 1u
 
Berdych -2.5 2.5u

took the under but I'll protect my self a little/hopefully go off for some more
 
ended 54-41-5 -4u sorry was out of town for the end of the week to update. A lot of work and a lot of right to still be losing. We get it back wk 41
 
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