Tennis 9/24-9/30

Marcus000

Fondy's bitch
2007 Tennis Record: 2-5 (-8.29 units)

Late start to this weeks thread as I didn't really like any bets of yesterday's card. Tonight tho I'm gonna try on a dog that might prove to have some bite.

Thailand Open (Indoor)

Joachim Johansson +135 vs Fernando Verdasco (2 units to win 2.7 units)

Well Joachim (aka Pim Pim) is coming off an injury plagued 2 years where he has had shoulder problems. He has since had surgery on it and been out of action since the Australian Open. Pim Pim got back onto the tennis court finally last week by taking on Andy Roddick in a Davis Cup match ehere he lost in straight sets 6-7, 6-7, 3-6. But even tho with the loss it looks very psomiting that even with the 8 months off he still was able to give Roddick a hell of a fight in the first 2 sets. After the match he said he feels 100% healthy finally and said he has spent the last few months training and improving his game for the comeback (mostly on his backhand). The indoor hardcourt is also a surface that Pim Pim excels on and loves to play.

Verdasco meanwhile is a rough one to read. He started out the season very shitty and of late has been doing better result wise but still too many questions on my end. He has also shown to be very beatable on the indoor hard surface the last 3 years with his 3-10 record.

Always a risk taking a player coming back from a long layoff with injury but thats why its a dog play. If Pim Pim would have came out in that Davis Cup match and lost in straight sets a lot easier then he had then I wouldn't be making this play, instead as said he gave Roddick a great fight in it. If he wasn't coming back from surgery and had more matches under his belt he would be a good sized favorite over Verdasco on indoor hardcourt surfaces. And with his good first match back showing in the DC I think he could have a quicker comeback to form and so I see good value on him and the + money.
 
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Nice writeup. Not too familiar with JJ but I have learned that Verdasco is one strange player. Never know what your gonna get. Let's hope the bad version is out there today.
 
Well before he's gone through the injury stuff the last 2 years he was a top 20 player and was even in the top 10 a few times. He is only a hardcourt/carpet player as shown by his record. He is a big server and can rack up the aces when he is on. He actually co-holds the record for aces in a match at 51 vs Andre Agassi in the 2005 Australian Open.
 
Sounds good. I've been looking around online and I think I will be playing him as well today.

From what I've looked at... his serve will be more than enough to keep him in the match. I'll be making a play on him but I'm waiting to check line movement, hoping I can get a better number on the GL or ML.
 
Yeah I'm not too sure how the movement of the odds will be before it starts. Hopefully your able to find a slightly bigger price somewhere tho.
 
Well Pim Pim withdrew right before the match so its a voided bet. Hopefully its not anything serious again and just him thinking he needs another week or so to build back up the stamina for a full tournament. Nothing else on the ATP card looks worth a damn for me to play. So gonna be a no play day after the voided bet. Hopefully see something on tomorrow's card worth a play.
 
Ok two plays tonight in the Thailand Open.

Thailand Open

Llodra +160 vs Tursunov (1 unit to win 1.6 units)

Worth the shot on this one. Tursunov hasn't been playing that good of late. Llodra is a very experienced indoor hard player and has every chance in this imo to give Tursunov fits. Think Llodra shows some value at this must + money.

Wang -145 vs Lindahl (4.35 units to win 3 units)

How the hell Querry lost to Lindahl is beyond me. Lindahl has not had a good season and has even been pretty bad in challenger events this year. Wang meanwhile has done very well in the challenger events this year and even has a 4-1 record in ATP events. Well needless to say I rate Wang a lot higher in ability then Lindahl and I don't see him pulling another upset type match in this one. Lindahl also to note had to play 3 matches just to qualify for this tournament so this will be his 5th match, so needless to say fatigue can also start to come into play here.
 
Not a bad idea on Wang. I think I will follow you on this one as well. I think more than not, Querrey lost that match rather than Lindahl winning it.

I actually like Tursunov in that match but won't be playing as Dmi's game is subject to how well his is serving that day. GL.
 
Yeah I'm just playing it as I see it as a dog value bet. If Tursunov was playing better right now I would avoid it, but think right now he is very beatable. Llodra tho can be a pain in the ass to back most of the time so why just the small chance on it. Gl on your plays as well tonight bro.
 
Adding:

WTA Guangzhou International Womens Open

Yan -110 vs Olaru (2.2 units to win 2 units)

I can't believe I'm betting on the WTA again and even more amazing I can't believe how long the title for this freaking tourny is. Why do they have it as an "International" open? All tournies are freaking international. And even more stupid why do they need to put its a "Women's" open? Its the freaking WTA! With this logic, next year the US Open will instead be called United States International Mens Tennis Tournament For Only Tennis Players That Qualify But Remember You Must Be Male Open.

With that said neither player is great but I rate Yan a little higher on level on the hardcourts and since she is playing in her home country she should have a good amount of crowd support. Yes my writeup about the match is lamer then my rant about the naming of the event, I know.
 
Adding:

WTA Guangzhou International Womens Open

Yan -110 vs Olaru (2.2 units to win 2 units)

I can't believe I'm betting on the WTA again and even more amazing I can't believe how long the title for this freaking tourny is. Why do they have it as an "International" open? All tournies are freaking international. And even more stupid why do they need to put its a "Women's" open? Its the freaking WTA! With this logic, next year the US Open will instead be called United States International Mens Tennis Tournament For Only Tennis Players That Qualify But Remember You Must Be Male Open.

With that said neither player is great but I rate Yan a little higher on level on the hardcourts and since she is playing in her home country she should have a good amount of crowd support. Yes my writeup about the match is lamer then my rant about the naming of the event, I know.

lol
 
WTA Fortis Championship

Golovin -175
vs Schiavone (5.25 units to win 3 units)

I like gpcyan's play on this. Golovin is damn good on hardcourts and especially has done well on indoor hardcourts. Schiavone has been so-so this year, not horrible, not great. She has played a lot better in clay tournaments this year then any other surface. Golovin is the better player this year and should be able to win this one in a good fashion.
 
WTA Fortis Championship

Golovin -175
vs Schiavone (5.25 units to win 3 units)

I like gpcyan's play on this. Golovin is damn good on hardcourts and especially has done well on indoor hardcourts. Schiavone has been so-so this year, not horrible, not great. She has played a lot better in clay tournaments this year then any other surface. Golovin is the better player this year and should be able to win this one in a good fashion.


Franny is way fitter now, and as you know she's a big fighter,one of the biggest on tour. The beggining of the year wasn't good for her, but since fed cup she's been playing very well, she rised her level of play. Franny likes these courts. More experienced, knows when to comes to the net. Tati comes from winning a tourney - that thing usually makes me think that she'll be overconfident now. But I also could be wrong here, as very player reacts in different way. She's hot, but that first round could be misleading here. I wouldn't suggest with that result from Toronto where Tati crushed Franny in straights. I like italian as a dog tonight.
 
Always post your opinions, I'm always up for feedback on plays. I can definately see your points about Frany and she definately is better then her record has shown this year and even then she showed in the match this morning. But I just think Golovin right now is focused and trying to prove a point after her horrible display at the US Open and get some credibility back.
 
2007 Tennis Record: 4-7 (-5.49 units)

Thankfully won both bigger amount plays and just lost the dog play and trying to trust a mediocre WTA player yet again in Yan. Just doing a record update now so its less complicated by adding more and more plays on and me sitting here trying to find the square root of pi to see what my unit amount is now.
 
Thailand Open

Mahut +115
vs Verdasco (2 units to win 2.3 units)

Worth the try on Mahut, he is a very experienced indoor hard player (albeit mostly on challengers and qualies). But the biggest reason is he is coming off a great win in straight sets against Tommy Haas who is a great indoor hard player and should have big confidence coming into this one. Verdasco as I said in my Pim Pim writeup is too flaky sometimes and this is just not one of his better surfaces to play on. Think Mahut has a good chance to win this one if he's able to keep up the high play he had in the Haas match.
 
GL with the play tonight Marcus. I agree Mahut has a good chance to win this one, and I believe it's at least 50/50. My assessment of Verdasco doesn't seem to be correct, so since I believe I don't have a good idea of how each player is preforming I'll be staying away. But if I had to pick someone I would go with Verdasco since he has surprised me so far this tourney. Either way not a bad pick at +odds, cuz this match is definitely 50/50 IMO. I'm looking to play Kiefer today I think, gonna look at a couple more things online and decide. He has a really bad h2h against Rochus but he (kiefer) is playing phenominal tennis right now from what I've read online.

GL
 
thx bro. Yeah I can see your like for Kiefer, just too short of odds for me right now at -195. Dunno if it will drop any or not but will wait and see. I'm thinking about taking Santoro for a small shot. Nieminen hasn't really impressed me too much this year and Santoro I think has more of a shot on the win then the +150 odds. Probably gonna see how Mahut does first then figure out how much I want to throw on Santoro.
 
Waited to long on this one, was hoping it would go up a bit, instead it went down a ton

Kingfisher Airlines Open

Santoro +130
vs Nieminen (2 units to win 2.6 units)
 
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