Favourites are on 22-3 & 40-12 runs. It's not normal, but as I noted in my previous post it seems to be a function of the way the shitty draw has panned out in this tourney. But we are certainly due a fave regression.
Penus vs. Suarez Navarro
No question at this stage of the tourney I'd be looking to fade Venus, and the current the "dogs are due" angle would've played into this. But once again this shitty draw makes itself felt, and Venus gets one of the easiest opponents she could. S-N's game is built for clay, then hardcourts: least of all grass. And she's never made a QF at Wimbledon, having done so at all the other 3 Slams. Can't back Venus given her weaknesses (she hasn't made a QF at a non-hardcourt Slam in 6 years, hasn't looked impressive thus far), can't back the clown facing her. As for a total, Venus could murder her thus delivering the Under, or the Spaniard could show enough to help deliver Venus's 4th straight Over. Thanks, shitty draw.
Kerber vs. Doi
If Kerber was her usual self, then Doi's good form wouldn't get in the way of me believing the German would roll here. But since her breakthrough win at the AO, Kerber hasn't been herself & understandably so, dealing as she has been with the fallout of being the first German women since Graf to win a Slam. She's certainly done better here than she did at the French, but still her form is questionable. Last year here she beat Witthoeft 6-0 6-0, this time round it was 7-6 (13-11) 6-1. That as much as anything indicates she's not at back to her best. Kerber is 4-0 HtH vs. Doi, but Doi held a match point against her in the 1R of the AO earlier this year. So there are pointers here that say Doi can do her part to contribute to the "dogs are due" angle, but her Slam history is pathetic (this is her first 4R made in her 18th Slam appearance) and on the run of play against Friedsam she's fortunate to still be in this tourney full stop. Essentially what we have here is a player out of her depth this deep into the Slam, but can't be faded due to the flaws her opponent presents. Thanks again, shitty draw.
Fraudwanska vs. Cibukolva
Anybody who knows me knows my attitude towards the Pole's BS pop-gun act. The good news on paper here is she's facing a player who hits for power/goes for winners, so the match is going to be on the dog's racquet (Cibu has won 4 of their last 6 meetings). The bad news is I'm not convinced about Cibu's form. Firstly she won at Eastbourne, and Eastbourne winners have no history of making the QF in their subsequent Wimbledon appearance unless they're a Slam winner (which obv. Cibu is not). Historical inertia aside, Cibu hit 6 less winners & 2 more UE in her 1st set vs. Bouchard yet still won the set, an unusual statistical feat. Bouchard clearly got frustrated with that result and played that way in the 2nd set as a result. She didn't look great against Lucic-Baroni in the 1R which was another match decided by the 1st set result: when Cibu broke for the 7-5 win, a building alarm went off during L-B's service game. She was clearly distracted by it and ultimately it did her in. Radwanska's ploughed through a couple of youngsters, and needed the youngest to step on a ball to screw her ankle thus led to her losing. Cibu is a live dog, but Fraudwanska has a good history at this tourney & Cibu does not. All things considered I can't fade the brickwaller, and I can't back a chick I otherwise like (not at least pre-match: I will have live for this one). Thanks once again, shitty draw.
Shvedova vs. Safarova
I mentioned this one in my previous post. If this was a R1 or R2 match-up with everything else being as it is, I'd be on the Kazak (of her 3 wins over Safarova, the only one to come in a Slam - the AO - took place in the 1R). But being this deep in a Slam, the crucial experience factor that Safarova holds when it comes to playing on this kind of stage comes to bear. The shitty draw strikes again.
Halep vs. Keys
Halep's odds have dropped sharply since their open. She's certainly a live dog here, but this is her 'worst' surface vs. it certainly suits Keys even if the American might prefer hardcourts first & foremost. The pertinent question with the Romanian, aside from her best odds now no longer being available, is the same one that's existed for 18 months: is she back to her best? Can she be trusted? She's no longer paying enough for me to take the risk on believing positive answers exist to those questions, while I'm still not interested in Keys at these odds against the kind of quality Halep has the potential to bring to bear, given I still don't rate her ground game or her in-game intelligence (imo she still needs a further 12-18 months of growth before she potentially shows her dominant best). Hopefully there'll be some live betting on this one (it's the first match up on Court One, so there should be). But this could be anything: either player rolls in straights or they fight out a tough 3-setter. Draw did it's job here by delivering a tough nut to crack.
Makarova vs. Vesnina
Vesnina is playing in her 42nd Slam, and this is only the 3rd time she's made the 4R. Makarova has made the QF once in 8 Wimby appearances, otherwise never past the 3R before now. Vesnina is having the far better year (21-9) than Makarova (19-13) but the surface should suit the latter's heavier hitting game more. Vesnina has needed a 7th game to win every 1st set she's played against lesser opposition than she faces here, it should be the case of the taller Russian eventually coming out on top. The problem here though - yes, shitty draw time again - is that these two are doubles partners who are defending their title here that they won last year (they won their 1R match). So, how much does either wish to bury the other since they're obv. now good friends? Have they done a deal not to test the other after the 1st set, in order to save their energies for the event which clearly must matter most to both of them since surely neither can really believe they're a chance to win this whole thing? I have no idea. Thanks, shitty draw.
The Beast vs. Kuznetsova
The Russian has already beaten Serena once this year. Me thinks that once is enough. Kuzzy last made a QF at Wimbledon 9 years ago, and she needed a Sloane Stephens meltdown to even make it this far? Haha. The more I look at who remains left standing at this point, the more I think Serena has a cakewalk to tie Graf's record. Keys & Halep would seem to be the two that stand out who would test her the most, but she can't meet both of them where if she could then at least she'd be vulnerable to the one she played second due to the toll the one she played first took out of her. Keys still isn't mature enough nor has a consistent enough ground game to bother an on-form Serena, and I doubt her mentality at this point could stand serving for the match against the Beast on such a high pressure stage since I still detect mental midgetry in the younger American. Halep at her own best would pose the biggest threat, since as well as having the necssary experience not to be overwhelmed in a Final setting, she'd be able to demand a lot of moving from that old fat ass of the Beast's and that's not something Serena's really interested in at this point (cue her AO & FO losses, and why she likes the grass so much = a lot of cheap points that require little moving). Serena has Vandeweghe on her horizon after she deals with the Russian: if Keys has an inconsistent ground game, Coco is even worse. Looks like the shitty draw is gold for the historic desires of one player. Hard to ignore Serena's plus money to win it all at this point.
Pavlyuchenkova vs Vandeweghe
These two are very much a mirror image of each other (tall, well built), thus it's no surprise that the scoreline from their one meeting should read 7-6 7-5 (won by the American). The Russian's demolition of Bacsinszky didn't shock me given it took place on this surface, so one has to respect that here where I don't see the American really having played anyone she shouldn't haven't beaten on this surface. Really think the odds here are further apart than they should be, but Coco's run to the QF here last year (where she lost a tight 3rd set to Shitpova) plus her good run-in form on grass in her build up (8-1, winning at Hertogenbosch) vs. Pavly's 0-2 grass run-in and the fact she'd never made it past the 3R in her previous 9 Wimbledon appearances must factor strongly into matters. Still that stuff has got to do with the past & not the present, and I can see this being a decent fight. Hard not to like the fave, but the dog has the ability to bite at a time when the dogs are due to bite. I'd like to back Pavly to win a set/for the match to go 3 sets but I don't have the ability to, thus the only option I have to bet which reflects expectations of the Russian showing up is the Over, but Pavly winning in straights (= a potential Under affair) is something I can envisage happening. My book's lack of options & not the shitty draw is responsible for me passing here.
