Teams who had a good year in 2007 but will struggle in 2008

E.T.G.

E.T.G.

One of trus baby mommas
Lets see what everyone can compile as we getting working through the summer months.


Virginia (9-4): Steele certainly is not buying this team, he has them finishing last in their division, yes, behind Duke. I have quite a few problems with this team and the first is at QB. Sewell was not great with his arm but he gave them mobility with his feet (485yds) and this year, true Sophomore Peter Lalich (35/61 -321yds-2td-1int) will be working behind an OL that replaces 4 starters. They will try to attack with a 2-back set on the ground but finding space behind this line as well as time to throw could be very hard. On defense, of course Chris Long will be the name that steals all the headlines as far as departing pieces of the defense but they also lose 2 other vetern pieces to the front of the 3-4 defense. The LB's return 3/4 which includes the teams leading tackler, and 3rd leading tackler from 2007 but they also lose 2 men in the defensive backfield. UVA was a team who skated by last year while tallying up that 9-4 record. They beat UNC by 2, GT by 5, MTSU by 2, UConn by 1, Maryland by 1, and Wake by 1. That gives them 6 of their 9 wins by a combined 12 points. Another huge factor going against this team is road play. Under Al Groh they are 14-25 on the road. Last season they lost @ Wyoming (23-3) and @ NC St (29-24), but they also notched their wins over UNC, MTSU, and Maryland on the road, all by very small margins. They open the season up with a sure blowout vs. USC at home, they then get D1-AA Richmond before traveling to UConn who will be seaking revenge for the 1 point loss. Likely this team will be starting out 1-2 before approaching their 1st bye. I would look to bet against this team when they play on the road, when they are facing a team with a strong rushing offense, a good DL, and facing some of those teams looking for revenge (UConn, UNC, GT, Maryland, Wake). Also watch out for ECU stunning them SU at home as they are sandwiched right between home games vs. Maryland and UNC.
 
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Look at Kansas too. Team will most likely go 8-4 at best. Tougher schedule will make them look more human.
 
Great call on UVA ETG. It will be interesting to see how Vegas lines their games to start the season.
 
It was Chris Long, but we knew what you meant.

I look for UConn and AF to fall off a bit as well. (I think PS mentions both AF and Virginia, actually.)

I had the UVA-USC line in the 14-17 range, but a lot of folks think closer to three TDs and after doing my capping of USC yesterday, I tend to agree. I came in a hair low on that one.
 
Ill get a little writeup tommorow probably but Wisconsin wont be as good as last year I think. They have no QB capable of leading them to a good season since they are all inexperience and from what they have shown very inconsistent. None at all. Think Drew Weatherford inconsistent without the talent.
 
I would think Mizzou would be a good candidate, but that's in the blind. I have a feeling they're going to get really talked up--and maybe their schedule will benefit them, I have no idea.

Also, the Big XII could suck (again) so who knows.

Is Texas a candidate here?
 
Joe Public said:
I would think Mizzou would be a good candidate, but that's in the blind. I have a feeling they're going to get really talked up--and maybe their schedule will benefit them, I have no idea.

Also, the Big XII could suck (again) so who knows.

Is Texas a candidate here?
Click to expand...

Texas should be as good or better than last year after acquiring one of the best DC's around - the D will be much improved under Muschamp. Very favorable schedule also sets them up for a potential 10-win season, despite their losses.
 
I will leave Air force to Jpicks hehe but that team regresses bigtime..... here is a team that i think regresses a little bit this year ....

oregon state beavers 9-4 , 6-3 conference

2007 -- I am going to miss this team this year , as I think they were one of the most undervalued teams from a betting perspective the last couple of years. I found ample opportunities to make money on them. How they achieved this success was that they returned a very strong offensive line with a great college rb behind it and had a front seven that simply stuffed the run. I know a lot of you don't think of the beavers when you think about rush defense but they were the number one rush defense in college football last year. Had it not been for injuries ( stud lineman perry and stud receiver stroughter -off the field issues ) and turnovers from the qb position this team could have made bcs noise.
Their losses were ...
AT cincinnati 34-3 -- turnover barrage , fumlbed punts inside own ten , interceptions galore.
AT Arizona State 32-44 - a game that oregon state controlled but let slip away very late with turnovers.
Home to UCLA -- again led in 4th qtr but turnovers doomed them and they got spanked in the last 15 minutes
AT USC -- very competitive in this game against a maturing usc squad

Their formula for winning was simple ... Stop the run and put the ball in the hands of Yvenson Bernard and let him run behind the Big OL with returning starters at every position ( minus the perry replacement )

2008
offense -- Some key losses but also some key returners.
key returners - Perry returns to the offensive line and he is very dominant , and the return of Sammie stroughter is also a help. The starting qb position is likely going to be moevao and he should be better this year after some growing pains last year.
key losses - there are a lot. None of the losses is probably as big as Yvenson Bernard who was a prolific college rb for this team. One of the most productive running backs in the pac-10 and a great leader. He will be missed by this squad. With little experienced depth at the position, this will hurt. The OL will miss two key starters in center Kyle Devan who was an underrated player and Roy Schuening who anchored the right side of their line. Oregon State also loses two solid underrated wr in Brandon Powers and Anthony Wheat-Brown. A lot of lost leadership and quality players for this offense that ranked just 58th in scoring and 78th in total offense. When you consider the fact that they lost a lot of the keys ( again they played basically all of last year without perry who is a dominator ) to their running attack , they may have to rely more on the passing game this year. After watching a season of Canfield and Moevao , i can say with confidence that they will have had to of made large strides for this to be a formula for success. Offensively , a lot of their success might hinge on the health of Perry's knees this year and the development of a running back. The losses at wr are diminished somewhat with Stroughter return.

Defense - This rates to be a different year
key returners --The beavers will have a veteran secondary with returning starters Hughes and Lewis at the corners and Afalava at strong safety. The other safety position will be contested between seniors laybourn and Payton. So no matter who wins the other safety spot , the entire defensive backfield will be seniors. This unit was not as bad as their stats looked last year. When your rush defense is number one in the nation , teams will often gameplan to pass more and will often be forced to pass more. They gained a lot of experience from this last year.
But here is the recipe for disaster for this team ... that front seven that brought them the number one ranked rush defense is gone ... all seven of them. There is just no way to replace that effectively.

This team also sports a brutal schedule this year with ooc games at utah ( loss ) and at penn state ( loss ).

special teams --
Big loss with losing Serna for placekicks but the good news is that they lose serna the punter. Stroughter should be returning kicks and he is good at it when he is not in cincinnati at his own 4 yardline. Unfortunately i dont know a ton about the new placekicker other than he went 1-1 last year and several preseason mags say he has a big leg.

I think this team will be lucky to win 5 games this year with the schedule they have and the key losses on defense that they suffered to graduation. Now it is uncertain to me whether they will be fade material as far as pointspreads are concerned given the lack of respect from linesmakers and public the last couple of years ( my wallet thanks you ). So not sure how this will play out from a betting perspective but it would be hard to expect that this team even sniffs bowl eligibility this year after be an upper echelon pac-10 team the last two seasons.
 
Texas should be as good or better than last year after acquiring one of the best DC's around - the D will be much improved under Muschamp. Very favorable schedule also sets them up for a potential 10-win season, despite their losses.

Thanks, Linde.

Seeing VK in here makes me want to ask this question, anybody see the slide continuing for the Wolfpack of Nevada?
 
Will have to get back to you on nevada, joe... not sure they apply to this thread.

btw i love the idea of this thread and of course the idea of a thread of the reverse.
 
btw i love the idea of this thread and of course the idea of a thread of the reverse.

I second that as well.

Also, on Nevada, there probably isn't much hype so I agree, they probably don't apply. But I really get that 8-4 feeling from them. But being in the blind on them, too, that's just a total feeling.
 
lindetrain said:
Texas should be as good or better than last year after acquiring one of the best DC's around - the D will be much improved under Muschamp. Very favorable schedule also sets them up for a potential 10-win season, despite their losses.
Click to expand...

Good call, Linde.

I actually think that, if Texas wasn't such a heavy public fav, that betting on Texas this year would render good value. Phil Steele is picking them to finish 3rd in the South, but says that they could win the South, too.

Why is Texas so down and why could Texas surprise? Well, mostly because they don't have the household names around this year. But, Mack has done a good job the last 2 years getting top talent in place and they will play.

Muschamp is already instilling a different attitude on defense and will put his best 12 on the field, regardless of seniority most likely since the LBs and DBs are very young.

The big question mark on offense is who will emerge as a long yardage gamebreaker. Some eyes are on John Chiles at QB or as a slotback due to his speed. Also look to RBs Vondrell McGee and Fozzy Whitaker to provide a two back punch. But, if Mack decides to play a true frosh, look to see if Desean Hales makes an impact early. There is talk that he could be a Ramonce Taylor type back for us with his speed and versatility.
 
another mwc team in addition to air force that will regress is new mexico. come on jpicks .. lets go ... !
 
But, Mack has done a good job the last 2 years getting top talent in place and they will play.

He may get you the talent, RJ, but that team has to overcome his game day coaching week in and week out.

I'm not saying I hate your team or anything, just that Mack leaves a lot to be desired on game day.
 
he leaves a lot to be desired as far as having them ready to play first halves ... but that team has come out many a time and played inspired ball in the second halves a lot.

oklahoma state comes to mind a few times.

in general i agree joe... he is not a great gameday coach. Its a lot tougher to win a championship now that he cant just tell vince young to drop back and win the game for him by throwing or running on his own.
 
Exactly.

And I don't mean to crush the guy, because one thing that team will do is pull away in the second half. But, honestly, I think a lot of that is talent eventually winning out.

I think he's a pretty great recruiter, and I forgot about that defensive coaching addition--that may really be huge for them. Because all those linemen they lost post VY have to be pretty much replaced by now, and that team is going to score, they just will. So if they can hold those marginal Big XII teams under 20, they should be able to win by 17 to 24 pretty regularly.
 
TheGarfather said:
It was Chris Long, but we knew what you meant.

I look for UConn and AF to fall off a bit as well. (I think PS mentions both AF and Virginia, actually.)

I had the UVA-USC line in the 14-17 range, but a lot of folks think closer to three TDs and after doing my capping of USC yesterday, I tend to agree. I came in a hair low on that one.
Click to expand...


agree with air force... i think the uconn team is just as good as last year , it just wont show in the record ( of course they werent as good as their record last year ). They should start fast but rate to lose 5 or 6 of last 8 games.
 
Yeah, I'm sure Husky can tell us more, but I can't possibly see how UConn could live up to that record from last year. Good call.
 
Alright , i admit it .. i cant get enough football talk......here is another team i think regresses ....

Boston College (11-3 including champs sports bowl win over mich st). 6-2 conference.

2007 - With a stud qb in matt ryan , boston college used a controlled passing game to average 324 yards per game through the air.while their defense was stout against the run on their way to a very successful season under first year coach jagodzinski.

2008 -

offense -no more ryan , no more passing game bailout.
key returners --WR brandon robinson development will be huge. He is now the number 1 receiver and gets the number 1 defensive back form the opponent. can he handle it ? Some returning talent on OL.

key losses -- Matt Ryan constitutes a pretty big loss. Team also loses Whitworth and callender at rb.. huge losses there ...their best receiver in challenger is also gone ... so nfl caliber qb is gone , stud rb in whitworth/callender are gone and their best receiving option is gone. A lot of skill position players to lose in one offseason.

defense - tougher to stop run in tougher conference than last year
key returners -- really they return a lot of talent to this side of the ball. the center of their run defense returns as does brian toal at lb. Unfortunately a lot of their success last year was due to bad offensive lines in conference. That might not be the case this year

key losses --mlb dunbar is a big loss and boston college also loses a majority of its secondary.

What i see here is a team that should struggle to score. They have some recruited talent that has some explosiveness in them but i am not sure how much they see the field this year. Replacing that much quality at the skill positions is just tough to overcome. I also think the offensive line takes a step back this year , especially since Ryan was very adept at reading defenses and releasing the ball quickly. With the new qb it is hard to expect the line to perform better as they will undoubtedly have to hold their blocks longer. There is really no explosiveness out of the receiver position to help a new qb either. Just seems very tough to score. The defense should be decent at stopping the run again but i doubt they do as well as last year here either. Another thing that you need to consider with this team is that Ryan used pinpoint accuracy and an ability to read defenses to move the chains for this team that lacks offensive speed. Without him there to do that , this defense will be put in worse positions and will also have to defend more plays. I also think that the overall talent in conference is a lot better than last year , including opposing OL. Just dont think we see a top ten rush defense like last year. They also have a deadly schedule to deal with.
out of conference they have kent state in ohio , home to ucf ,home to rhode island , and home to notre dame. conceivably they could win all those but they could also easily come away 2-2

in conference i hate their schedule ....at nc state and obrien should be tough , home to va tech in a major revenge spot for hokies from thursday night miracle last year , at north carolina who i love this year , outmatched at home to clemson, at florida state , at wake forest , home to one of my underrated teams that i am looking to bet a lot this year in maryland, and open conference play with a home game against the new georgia tech.

tough tough schedule.

i see this team finishing about 5-8 or 6-7 .. 7-6 if everything falls into place. A big drop off from last year.
 
Arkansas
... was 8-5, so I don't know if I would call them good in 2007, but they will be worse in 2008. Steele and myself expect them to bottom feed on the SEC West as Petrino rebuilds in Fayetteville. The Razorbacks lost both stud RB's, McFadden & Jones, and five of their top six tacklers on defense.

Michigan
Only 10 returning starters (fewest in B10). Lost Henne. Lost Hart. Lost Manningham. Lost Jake Long. RR is bringing a whole new offensive scheme into Ann Arbor. UM was 9-4 last year but won't reach nine wins this season.
 
Joe Public said:
But, Mack has done a good job the last 2 years getting top talent in place and they will play.

He may get you the talent, RJ, but that team has to overcome his game day coaching week in and week out.

I'm not saying I hate your team or anything, just that Mack leaves a lot to be desired on game day.
Click to expand...

I hear ya. But if you look at the OU game, we were a couple of bounces of the ball away from winning. JC fumbling inside the five hurt alot, for example. That's not Mack's fault.

There's alot of talk about Mack being more fiery this year. That loss to Aggy last year really hurt and pissed off the fanbase, Mack, and the team. They got up early and Mack got in their face. All that led to the thrashing of ASU in the bowl (you know you loved it, Jump ;) ).

There is talk that some of that will carry over to this season. We'll see. It's a different animal trying to get a team ready for a bowl game and ready to play consistently great over 12 games. I like Muschamp getting the D ready week in and week out and even Mack's game day decisions aren't bad. The real question mark here is whether Greg Davis can get the offense going and limit Colt's turnovers. They will need to in order to keep the D off the field and limit points off turnovers, two things that killed us last year.
 
Blue_Chip said:
Michigan
:) Only 10 returning starters (fewest in B10). Lost Henne. Lost Hart. Lost Manningham. Lost Jake Long. RR is bringing a whole new offensive scheme into Ann Arbor. UM was 9-4 last year but won't reach nine wins this season.
Click to expand...

UH OH!

This one wont go over well!:)


:popcorn:
 
CapNumberTwo said:
UH OH!

This one wont go over well!:)


:popcorn:
Click to expand...

Michigan and Arkansas, no offense to Blue Chip, are no-brainers.

Loss of key starters, head coaching changes, and offensive scheme changes are a recipe for a down year this year. In the case of Arkansas, they are looking for a 2-3 year rebuilding process--although they get Mallett next year. For Michigan, it may only be a 1-2 year process as it seems that moving from a Pro-I offense to a spread option attack does not take as long (if they can find a QB).
 
vegaskyle said:
another mwc team in addition to air force that will regress is new mexico. come on jpicks .. lets go ... !
Click to expand...

New Mexico is going to take it upside the head from the first game and it'll be Week 5 before they realize the season has started. They could certainly use a Bye after playing Tulsa in week 4. Their offensive line is a huge, huge question mark at this point.

I was really down on AFA during the spring, and I certainly don't see them winning 9 games this year, but I've come off the idea that they could be 3-9 bad. They still have really solid lines (both sides) and if they can find a QB that doesn't give the ball away they should be able to go 6-6.
 
Completely concur with JPicks post above; TCU should handle New Mexico in week 1.

Early line prediction...TCU -5' or -6 over New Mexico
 
Michigan and Arkansas, no offense to Blue Chip, are no-brainers.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I didn't think it was complex. I was just addressing the title of this thread. Glad to see we agree that UM and Arkansas will both regress this year... although like you said, I doubt many will argue.
 
i really dont have a great read on Uconn yet for this upcoming year. They return 15 starters from last year, and will be extremely quick on defense..

but their offense still has a questionable air threat..

and they suprised a lot of teams last year, and wont have that suprise effect this year..

i still have them being a very good team this year!
 
Michigan had one of it's worst years last year...it can only get better. Too much talent...poeple act like the guys coming in have never seen the field...not true at all. The defense will be great, best in last 5, 6 years imo,they will bump and run and blitz often..which they never did with Carr.

QB is huge though, If Threet or Feagin can have a Boeckman like year UM will be just fine...plus, they have a REAL favorable schedule. The beginning of the year is front loaded with tough opponents at home..which will be huge for the new qb.

I would be the first one to tell you if I thought Um sucked...I had my doubts in spring, but not anymore.

Nd the most improved team? that's a joke...Chaz can't coach his way out of a paper bag.

I would be the first to admit if I thought they will suck.
 
Missouri, I plan on betting against them the whole season, especially since they will be the favorite a lot this season. Anyone have their schedule?
 
a 30 illinois in st louis
s6 se mizzou
s13 nevada
s20 buffalo
bye
oct4 at husker nation
oct11 okie st
oct 18 at bevo nation
oct 25 colorado
nov1 at baylor
nov8 kansas state
nov15 at iowa st
bye
nov 29 kansas in kansas city

easy schedule.
 
vegaskyle said:
a 30 illinois in st louis
s6 se mizzou
s13 nevada
s20 buffalo
bye
oct4 at husker nation
oct11 okie st
oct 18 at bevo nation
oct 25 colorado
nov1 at baylor
nov8 kansas state
nov15 at iowa st
bye
nov 29 kansas in kansas city
Click to expand...

Oh my. That is a cake-walk schedule.
 
Moneyline_Monster said:
Missouri, I plan on betting against them the whole season, especially since they will be the favorite a lot this season. Anyone have their schedule?
Click to expand...

Ehh..not to sure about this one. Mizzou will basically have just as good of an offense as last year and the defense will be improved. Could be Pinkels best defense he has had at Mizzou.
 
vegaskyle said:
a 30 illinois in st louis
s6 se mizzou
s13 nevada
s20 buffalo
bye
oct4 at husker nation
oct11 okie st
oct 18 at bevo nation
oct 25 colorado
nov1 at baylor
nov8 kansas state
nov15 at iowa st
bye
nov 29 kansas in kansas city

easy schedule.
Click to expand...

I think they'll drop the game against the Illini, Nebraska and possibly K-State.
 
definitely have a tough stretch when they go to neb , host okie state ( total of 100 ? ) , travel to texas and then have to avoid letdown spot hosting a decent colorado team. outside that its just kansas and kansas should be a lot worse this year compared to last ... compared to any drop off ... like gems i am not sure there is any because the defense improvement ......of missouri
 
VK, just curious what teams did you tend to side with past NCAAF season?
 
mizzou avoids ou and tt, they return 14 starters, and two of their four road games are against baylor and iowa st. kansas will get upset on sept 12 against usf.
 
kansas will get upset on sept 12 against usf.

...except it won't be an upset since the Bulls will be favored<!-- / message -->
 
...except it won't be an upset since the Bulls will be favored<!-- / message -->
Click to expand...

USF will likely start the season unranked. USF only plays Tenn-Martin and UCF on the road before the Kansas game. Even if USF destroys both of their first two opponents (which I expect), they will still go unnoticed by the general public. Kansas will enter the season carrying over the hype from last season. Considering Kansas plays Fla Int'l and La Tech before USF, Kansas should be riding high into South Fla at 2-0 with large margins of victory in both games. I hope the public bets up Kansas, thinking USF is a letdown like last yr after they were voted #2 after six weeks then lost three in a row. We will see...
 
mizzou is going to win it all this year, them or osu.
Click to expand...

Not Mizzou... and OSU needs to think about traveling to USC in the third week before dreaming of a third trip to the national title game. And if Florida gets back to the NC game, Ohio St better watch out.
 
Kansas will enter the season carrying over the hype from last season.

I don't think so; but you're right...we will see. Quite honestly, I hope you're right. I would love to bet the Bulls as a HD in that spot.
 
OSU can easily make it with 1 loss yet again...hedge the title game if you get there.
 
I don't think so; but you're right...we will see. Quite honestly, I hope you're right. I would love to bet the Bulls as a HD in that spot.
Click to expand...

I'd love to bet USF as a home dog or small fave (under a FG). A home dog would be ideal, so I could get plus money taking them on the ML. Keep your fingers crossed, horses.
 
OSU can easily make it with 1 loss yet again...hedge the title game if you get there.
Click to expand...

very true, hunt. the sec powerhouses have to go through brutal schedules this season. florida has the best path, but even their schedule is brutal.
 
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