TCU @ Utah

JPicks

JPicks

Pretty much a regular
Well I figure this will be a wildly popular game this week from scanning over the Sunday Morning Coffee thread. It's easily the biggest non BYU/Utah game that I can remember since moving to Utah. A few things to get out of the way right off the bat:

--Temperature supposed to be in the low 40's at kickoff with rain/snow showers on Wednesday night that could linger into Thursday. High is supposed to be 44 with a low of 38. Little to no wind.

--It's a blackout game for Utah. Players begged all summer long for a blackout game and the admin finally gave in. I personally don't like it as it only serves as a distraction, but it's creating alot more excitement among the fan base and the team itself.

--The way I figure it TCU got back to Fort Worth (two mine zones and daylight savings time adjusted) about 3-4am on Sunday morning from playing @Vegas on Saturday night. Probably have a walk thru on Sunday and practice Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday morning before flying back west to Utah on Wednesday afternoon. When they arrive Wednesday evening they should be arriving to a nice little Utah snowstorm.

--Utah probably got home about an hour or two earlier with no time zone adjustments and will have the a similar schedule without having to fly anywhere on Wednesday. The other benefit for Utah is that they had their bye week last week and I can assume the coaching staff used a day or two of the off week to prepare for TCU. As far as scheduling goes Utah is getting a huge advantage by the league as TCU should never had to travel two time zones and then play a NIGHT game in front of a Thursday game that they have to travel to.


Well that's just a little summary of the events that are not part of the actual game. I'll have my thoughts on the events that will be going on on the field a little later.
 
LVSC opener was a PK, not sure what the offshores will do though

like TCU in this one, they have the tools to shut down the utah running game, and can put the pressure on johnson to beat them with his arm, which he cant do

utah has been in a couple close games they were lucky to win.
Air force... oregon state, and last night against NM.

just a very bad matchup IMO for utah. a team that employs a similar style of play as they do but has a little bit more size and strength.

utahs run ends here. TCU earns their shot at a BCS game with this win.

all they have left is AF but they get them at home.
 
CapTwo said:
LVSC opener was a PK, not sure what the offshores will do though

like TCU in this one, they have the tools to shut down the utah running game, and can put the pressure on johnson to beat them with his arm, which he cant do

utah has been in a couple close games they were lucky to win.
Air force... oregon state, and last night against NM.

just a very bad matchup IMO for utah. a team that employs a similar style of play as they do but has a little bit more size and strength.

utahs run ends here. TCU earns their shot at a BCS game with this win.

all they have left is AF but they get them at home.
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I don't know if Utah was lucky to beat AF, They outgained them by like 200yds and had 15 more first downs (off top of my head). The Oregon St game went their way and the New Mexico game this past week can be chalked up to a look-ahead.

With all that said, if I can get + points with TCU or decent value on the ML, I might be on them.
 
CapTwo said:
LVSC opener was a PK, not sure what the offshores will do though

like TCU in this one, they have the tools to shut down the utah running game, and can put the pressure on johnson to beat them with his arm, which he cant do

utah has been in a couple close games they were lucky to win.
Air force... oregon state, and last night against NM.

just a very bad matchup IMO for utah. a team that employs a similar style of play as they do but has a little bit more size and strength.

utahs run ends here. TCU earns their shot at a BCS game with this win.

all they have left is AF but they get them at home.
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LVSC is a pk???? hahahahhaha. please. pretty pretty please
 
I grabbed Utah as well as it's just nuts that they're getting points at home. I had plans to play it up to Utah -3. More thoughts later.
 
I'm really pissed that I wont get to see this game.
Apparently it's TVd on something called cbscs ??( not sure I have all the letters right, but) it's a network - if I can call it that - I've never heard of and I know my cable provider doesn't carry it.:nono::36_11_2:
 
bull said:
I'm really pissed that I wont get to see this game.
Apparently it's TVd on something called cbscs ??( not sure I have all the letters right, but) it's a network - if I can call it that - I've never heard of and I know my cable provider doesn't carry it.:nono::36_11_2:
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Think it'll be on Versus or CSTV. I know what you're talking about with the cbscs crap. I don't get it either nor do I know what the hell it is.
 
broadwayjoe said:
prayers have been answered. worst line i think i've ever seen
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That's exactly what the oddsmakers are hoping you'd say. This is the fishiest line I've seen all year since BYU/TCU. I'm not making the mistake and going against the Frogs again.....
 
J-

surprised to see you on the utes

nevertheless, might as well wait, should be able to get a lot better then 1.5 points
 
J Galt said:
That's exactly what the oddsmakers are hoping you'd say. This is the fishiest line I've seen all year since BYU/TCU. I'm not making the mistake and going against the Frogs again.....
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imo there was nothing fishy about byu/tcu..i was on tcu because i thought i was getting the better team at home in a big game at a pk to an overrated team. this time i know im gettin the better team at home as dogs in a big game. i dont care what the oddsmakers are hoping i'd say -- theyre wrong here...and we know why. tcu has been dominating their opponents and have one of the best defenses if not the best in the nation. theyre simply underestimating utah here....by quite a bit imo..which i predicted to a certain extent due to some of their performances, especially new mexico, but did not predict it to this extent. id be shocked if utah isnt favored by almost a fg by kickoff.
 
TCU opened some eyes with the BYU win and how they did it . The past 2 wins vs Wyoming and UNLV in impresssive fashion have further widened the eyes of the college faithful IMO . However you cant overlook the INCREDIBLE advantage very good defensive football teams have vs weak offenses or sloppy offenses . Enter Wyoming and UNLV . Also dont overlook the simplicity of BYU struggle to beat UNLV 2 weeks ago and then TCU goes to UNLV and smokes them .

I owuld think based on recent play that a Pkem could be warranted but JPicks has the travel situation correctly pegged . Its a terrible spot for TCU to have to goto UNLV then come home and then go out to Utah for a Thursday night game . Would guess Utah kept it simple @ NM and played the Lobos 1st H and 2nd H expecting a very simplistic approach out of the Utes .

Just remember when Utah was flying high they were installed as 8 or so pt favs vs Oregon State . Who is very comparably IMO to TCU with a sound defense and offense relying on the running game . Of course not the same type teams bit similiar makeup IMO.

The weather sure doesnt help either as we recall that it could have played a role @ CSU for the Horned Frogs . :cheers:

Utah +3 will probably be tough to pass on and if TCU were to win and cover says alot about how they are playing
 
I can understand referencing the oregon st game in regards to line value but also keep in mind that oregon st was much the better team that night .... give utah credit for finding a way to win that one though.

i consider oregon st offense about even with tcu but the defenses do not compare in my opinion.

Every single time that utah plays a team with a good rush defense they struggle their asses off offensively.

wyoming 11 first downs
michigan 16 first downs
n mexico 17 first downs
oregon st 18 first downs

the games they succeeded in offensively the opponent sported atrocious rush defenses.

unlv , weber st , csu and the mighty aggies of utah st

Agaisnt the average rush defense of air force they played a good game.

I love tcu against teams that give up sacks too and the utah o-line has been very vulnerable to giving up pressure and sacks this year. Maybe two years ago brian johnson makes the move with his feet and gets the job done but the guys rushing him are going to be faster than he is.

Also recall jpicks saying earlier this year in one of his mwc threads that johnson can really get rattled sometimes and i can see that happening here.

Situationally the travel is a bad news scenario.

Coaching mismatch in favor of tcu imo.



Utah does match up well defensively vs tcu but froggies should have more balance on offense and are far more likely to win the turnover battle in my opinion.


One spot where i think utah has a significant advantage is with the fg kicker and that could play a role.

going to be a great game to watch. i love tcu until they prove otherwise and they havent yet this year.
 
I always agree its important to see exactly how a game transpired and what can be taken from it . While Oregon State definetly played better then Utah would say its a trickery slope . So they outplayed clearly and still lost who does that say more about Utah or Oregon State ? Oregon State played well and still couldnt win while Utah played like crap and still won . Its the huge advantage of being home really. So whats to see the same cant happen again ? TCU might outplay Utah but those key few plays whethere either or late could be the difference in the game . I find more value in the fact that Utah was kinda flying high at the time and they were instilled as 8 pt favs . How comparable Oregon State and TCU is not of great importance really . I would agree to TCU being a FG better even maybe -4 vs Orgeon State on a neutral field . Problem is that still doesnt get me anywhere near TCU being -1/-2 @ Utah . Also while Ore State played well Utah at one point led 20-9 and the only TD was a pick 6 to which Oreg St reeled off 19 straight at one time .......

Not really a big believer in the importance of 1st downs persay as you know. Think its borderline irrelevant looking at what Utah's offense did @ Michigan in the 1st game of the year , @ Wyoming when it just had an early lead and watched W self destruct , and really the same @ NM this week. Granted little was impressive from these 3 games but the fact remains these were road games with underlying context that doesnt apply here . If Utah plays like that I would certainly agree they will be in trouble vs TCU. Utah is home , on a short week where the offense has played alot better to date.

Look TCU still has this fumbling issue on the road as it was sloppy @ CSU but had 4 fumbles which 2 were lost @ UNLV. The UNLV defense is terrible and Dalton still avg barely above 5 yds per attempt with 29 for 152 yds. With how poor UNLVs defense is in mind it took 17 plays on the opening 76 yd drive to get a TD which is weak IMO . Then they had a 3 play 34 yd TD drive and 8 play 26 yd FG drive started at UNLVs 28 though. Then before half 10 plays 40 yds for a TD . So the offense is still feeding nearly entirely off their defense or the weakness of opposing defenses.

I have no reservations about how solid TCU is since I lead the bandwagon to play them and fade the shit out of BYU who I thought was clearly overrated . I think Utah is at worst equal to BYU but with a better defense and less prolific pass offense .

Cant overlook that as 4 pt dogs Utah went down to TCU and won last season. teams very similiar with alot of key ingredinents including core offenses in place. Some might say TCU have revenge but hard to believe things are lining up for TCU here .

If I could get +3.5 TCU would interest me but if I get Utah +3 or +3.5 that interests me alot more.....:cheers:




 
I always agree its important to see exactly how a game transpired and what can be taken from it . While Oregon State definetly played better then Utah would say its a trickery slope . So they outplayed clearly and still lost who does that say more about Utah or Oregon State ? Oregon State played well and still couldnt win while Utah played like crap and still won . Its the huge advantage of being home really. So whats to see the same cant happen again ? TCU might outplay Utah but those key few plays whethere either or late could be the difference in the game . I find more value in the fact that Utah was kinda flying high at the time and they were instilled as 8 pt favs . How comparable Oregon State and TCU is not of great importance really . I would agree to TCU being a FG better even maybe -4 vs Orgeon State on a neutral field . Problem is that still doesnt get me anywhere near TCU being -1/-2 @ Utah . Also while Ore State played well Utah at one point led 20-9 and the only TD was a pick 6 to which Oreg St reeled off 19 straight at one time .......

I am not sure it says much about either of those two teams ... other than they are likely similar in talent. I think it's safe to say i would bet oregon state at that line again if it was available knowing what we know now. Of course , we would never see that line if the two were to play again.. All i was pointing out was that the beavs out gained and outfirstdowned utah in that game and basically outplayed them. utah caught some breaks late and pulled it out .. i do give them credit for that. i don't think oregon st is in tcu class anyway but brought itup because we were discussing the line implications. oregon st would not be nearly the heavy dog they were for that game if they played now.

Not really a big believer in the importance of 1st downs persay as you know. Think its borderline irrelevant looking at what Utah's offense did @ Michigan in the 1st game of the year , @ Wyoming when it just had an early lead and watched W self destruct , and really the same @ NM this week. Granted little was impressive from these 3 games but the fact remains these were road games with underlying context that doesnt apply here . If Utah plays like that I would certainly agree they will be in trouble vs TCU. Utah is home , on a short week where the offense has played alot better to date.


Disagree about first downs. probably one of the most important factors in football betting whether it be nfl or cfb but that is a different debate. As far as the offense , you can use whatever measure you want when they play a good defense and come to a similar conclusion that utah struggles to score more than 17 here. I agree that tcu has been feeding offensively from the defense putting them in positions of success. Their style of grinding out first downs plays into the entire way they like to win games. limit opponent plays and wear them down. that is who tcu is. I do think you make a good point about the defenses tcu offense has faced and that they may struggle a lot mroe with utah here on that side of the ball. They moved the ball at will on unlv. i watched every play.

The fumbling you are referring to has to be put into context. At colorado st , patterson rested dalton and went with jackson who had a hell of a time taking a snap and that was the cause of their fumbles in that game where i think they lost one if i remember right and that was jackson. jackson wont see a snap unless dalton gets hurt here. As for the fumbles in the unlv game , 3 of them were muffed punts, including the two recovered by unlv. There were very strong winds and the tcu return man couldn't adjust to it. In other words in both cases you are referencing we dont have a systemic problem ... dalton doesnt fumble much , brown doesnt fumble much , christian doesnt fumble much etc etc etc


Cant overlook that as 4 pt dogs Utah went down to TCU and won last season. teams very similiar with alot of key ingredinents including core offenses in place. Some might say TCU have revenge but hard to believe things are lining up for TCU here .

again i think tcu outgained and out first downed utah in that one and not from garbage time. utah had a plus 3 turnover edge there because dalton was a bad decision maker back then. He has to be considered as one of the most improved players of the year. tcu did block a punt in that game so it was really just a plus 2 turnover edge for utah. Have every reason to believe tcu wins the turnover battle based on styles of offense and defense in this game.

If I could get +3.5 TCU would interest me but if I get Utah +3 or +3.5 that interests me alot more


Certainly understand your thinking. Utah if it plays well is certainly capable of winning here but i think tcu wins 59 or 60 times out of a hundred with maybe three of those being by 1-3 points. i can handle that.
 
JP - No way can I back Utah anymore...especially not after that absolutely HORRID offensive performance last Saturday against New Mexico. If the Utes struggled THAT much to get points on the board against an average New Mexico defense, TCU should give them fits all game long, regardless of the short week. In my honest opinion, Utah only has two wins against quality opponents this season (25-23 @ Michigan; 31-28 vs Oregon St)...and since the Wolverines are clearly in transition, the Beavers are really their only quality win (though, Air Force could be included).

Every time I bet on the Utes, dating all the way back to last year (I will never forget the vomit-worthy BYU loss), they screw me over. They clearly struggled to convert drives into points last week...I mean, how in the hell do you total nearly 400 yards of offense, yet only put a measly 13 points on the board?!

IMO, TCU continues to get no respect from the books...and I'm still kicking myself in the ass for letting my fellow degenerates (highly respected, of course) talk me out of playing TCU last week, which turned out to be one of the easiest plays on the board.

If the Utah defense is good, then TCU defense is downright stellar. The way the Horned Frogs have been moving the ball on offense, and converting drives to points has been very impressive.

Also noteworthy...though it doesn't show so much in the box score, Utah had difficulty containing and stopping Gruner of NM when he scrambled, and he isn't quite the dual threat as Dalton is. I believe Gruner had at least 7 or 8 runs of 5+ yards, and Dalton should be able to at least match that number.

GL if you play Utah, though I'll likely be on the other side...which is probably good for Utah backers.

:shake:
 
Cant overlook that as 4 pt dogs Utah went down to TCU and won last season. teams very similiar with alot of key ingredinents including core offenses in place. Some might say TCU have revenge but hard to believe things are lining up for TCU here .

Bro TCU is WAY better than they were last year. Last year TCU actually had one of their worst years under Patterson defending the run.

Did some research on TCU for the BYU game.

"When looking at last years statistics, the one thing I notice is TCU gave up yards rushing the ball LY. 176 to Texas, 146 to Air Force, 149 to SMU, 232 to Wyoming, 170 to Stanford, 107 to Utah, 112 to BYU. "

----That 107 for Utah last year, split that under 50 likely under 20 yards for this year's game. Could be negative range with sacks.

TCU IS #1 NATIONALLY IN SACKS UTAH IS 82 IN SACKS ALLOWED.

Utah is better than BYU no question but that game said just as much about TCU and about the TCU speed. TCU will have a speed edge in this one.


------These teams are very similar. Want to go back to something pags mentioned in the BYU-TCU discussion, and that was TCU has zero big play capability and that they rely on 14, 15 play drives and settle for far too many field goals. Now from my vantage point Utah is pretty similar in this regard as well. I have seen Utah with my own two eyes have real trouble scoring in multiple games and I have seen the offensive line really struggle. Brian Johnson, the qb, I have seen get rattled the guy looked like garbage vs. Oregon State.

Both teams should really have trouble scoring. I am impressed by both defenses and think they are the truth.

But what amazes me is everyone talks about TCU rush defense let's look at their rush offense, it's 12th nationally. Utah is 8th in rushing defense. Utah 30th in rushing offense, TCU #1 in rushing defense. I will also note Stanford, Oklahoma, and even BYU give TCU the tougher schedule. Utah has had 4 nearly 5 (Oregon State 92) teams rush for over 100 yards on them. TCU has kicked ass in that department only the last two games have they allowed over 100, are they slipping? IMO don't put much stock into it. I also know jpicks has said before that the DT's are a weakness for Utah.

So I'm saying I expect TCU to win this running battle by a decent amount. Not something ridiculous like I forecasted the BYU game to be but I would think around 50 yards or maybe greater.

Does Utah have the pass edge? Maybe a tiny bit but I don't see an edge. Brian Johnson and the Utah pass offense has not put much yards up this year and are overrated IMO. I really think alot of the reason Johnson looked so bad vs. Beavers was pass rush callapsing the Oline. The sacks are going to curtail alot and TCU is 22nd in pass defense and 5th in pass defense efficiency nationally. Really the ONLY game TCU has had trouble vs. the pass was Oklahoma. Utah has giving up over 300 twice, but honestly neither team in this conf plays opponents that can legitimately pass.


-----This one will be a tight game. TCU looks like the play but with homefield and Sakoda and beneficiary of turnovers and breaks Utah can win this.

BUT this is why TCU is the play on paper.

-----
1.TCU has moved the football in every game they have played in this year. Utah has not, Utah has bogged down on offense against decent competition.
2. TCU has the better defense
3. TCU has the better running game
4. TCU has the sacks vs. sacks allowed advantage BIG
5. TCU has played a tougher schedule
6. TCU is faster, speed edge galore.

Reasons UTAH can win.

1. Sakoda-----especially important if both teams go on long drives and settle for field goals too often, which is the way both teams play as noted above.
2. Thursday night home field ----as a dog this has been M-O-N-E-Y
3. TCU coming off two time zones as jpicks mentioned, flying back to Utah, bad Thursday night record
4. The running running edge and total defense edge I gave TCU is not by a large margin. Utah can keep the running battle close.
5. Schedule and speed overrated to an extent. Scratch the schedule, Utah is faster than BYU, I just give TCU overall speed edge and speed on getting to passer vs. Utah Oline.
6. Brian Johnson might have the passing edge, even if not by much
 
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Just my opinion JP, but I think you're looking a little too much into the situation, and not enough at the body of work of both teams.

TCU's defense is VASTLY improved compared to last year, and the Horned Frogs should be able to shut down the Utes running game. Not to mention, TCU's defensive line should be able to generate consistent pressure on Johnson, as the Utes OL hasn't been that good this season.

Conversely, the Utes defense will have to deal with a relatively healthy Dalton, who's got good wheels, and adds another element to the offense. Johnson is definitely not a mobile QB, so TCU can pin their ears back and go after him on passing downs.
 
Aztec4Life said:
Just my opinion JP, but I think you're looking a little too much into the situation, and not enough at the body of work of both teams.

TCU's defense is VASTLY improved compared to last year, and the Horned Frogs should be able to shut down the Utes running game. Not to mention, TCU's defensive line should be able to generate consistent pressure on Johnson, as the Utes OL hasn't been that good this season.

Conversely, the Utes defense will have to deal with a relatively healthy Dalton, who's got good wheels, and adds another element to the offense. Johnson is definitely not a mobile QB, so TCU can pin their ears back and go after him on passing downs.
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I honestly shouldn't have started this thread as I have little desire to talk about the game. Anything I say about this game is going to sound homerish so I'm going to pass on discussing this it. Maybe my reasons behind expecting a Utah win are homerish and if that's the case I don't want to be the one to lead somebody down the wrong path. :shake:



Should be a great game. :shake:
 
JPicks said:
I honestly shouldn't have started this thread as I have little desire to talk about the game. Anything I say about this game is going to sound homerish so I'm going to pass on discussing this it. Maybe my reasons behind expecting a Utah win are homerish and if that's the case I don't want to be the one to lead somebody down the wrong path. :shake:



Should be a great game. :shake:
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I concur...might be the best weeknight game of the year...

:shake:
 
Reasons Utah can win

1. Sakoda-----especially important if both teams go on long drives and settle for field goals too often, which is the way both teams play as noted above.
2. Thursday night home field ----as a dog this has been M-O-N-E-Y
3. TCU coming off two time zones as jpicks mentioned, flying back to Utah, bad Thursday night record
4. The running running edge and total defense edge I gave TCU is not by a large margin. Utah can keep the running battle close.
5. Schedule and speed overrated to an extent. Scratch the schedule, Utah is faster than BYU, I just give TCU overall speed edge and speed on getting to passer vs. Utah Oline.
6. Brian Johnson might have the passing edge, even if not by much
 
I never said TCU hadnt improved since last year . Think some have forget that I fought most of the forum on what a joke the line was with BYU at TCU . TCU was playing a one dimensonal team on their home field and getting no respect. Worse is TCU had almost beat BYU @ BYU the previous year.

Which is why this matchup is different. UTAH won @ TCU last season and that means alot to me . Of course TCU has improved as they were just -4 and lost SU where this year they play at Utah laying -2.5 . If they didnt improve Utah would be TD favs here .

Bottomline is I really dont care much about games on paper . Johnson didnt play well vs Oregon State but they still won and still at one point had an early 2 TD lead . It all comes down to who is going to make the key plays . Utah has shown they can do it and so has TCU .

With the terrible track record by road teams on Tue-Thursday games this year its just hard for me to find value in TCU here . I always want my team off a bad game in the previous spot so the rest of the world over emphasizes something that is meaningless. Just like TCU playing like crap @ CSU before BYU . TCU looks better then they ar because of who the matched up recently and Utah has the same problem as TCU in that they dont always roll over bad teams . These teams are very similar but I dont see how TCU is a TD better then Utah which being -2.5 on the road implies IMO........

Bottomline is I said before they played and say it again BYU is garbage . They have a solid QB and 2 WRs and nothing else . They struggled vs CSU and UNLV showing have theyhave no heart as well . BYU is much weaker then Utah IMO...

So no misconceptions on my part about TCU as that Thursday game was one of my biggest plays of the year . Game is a coin flip but I can grab a FG ..??

I dont buy speed arguements or 1st downs arguements . Those things while they play roles are to often generalized . Just like Auburn would slow Noel Devine because of their speed which I countered with speed has nothing to do with slowing Devine . :shake:

 
JPicks said:
I honestly shouldn't have started this thread as I have little desire to talk about the game. Anything I say about this game is going to sound homerish so I'm going to pass on discussing this it. Maybe my reasons behind expecting a Utah win are homerish and if that's the case I don't want to be the one to lead somebody down the wrong path. :shake:



Should be a great game. :shake:
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why ?? you are allowed to think your home team is going to win and cover , jpicks. I doubt there is anyone on the site whose opinion on mwc football or the utes is respected more than yours. Anyone who reads your threads knows you are sound and not a homer. Missing your feedback on this huge game would be missed. i am already locked in on tcu at -1 . But if it gets to say ... 3.5 or so i think i have to start considering a middle.

Even if you aren't going to discuss the game .. can you answer one question for me ??

Which team rtes to winthe turnover battle in your estimation ?
 
Nutt, :shake:

IMO I believe TCU has improved drastically compared to last year while Utah is much more on par with last year's club. And linesmakers see this that's why TCU is favored on the road you are correct. I also would like to note though that Utah was +3 in Turnovers last year and BYU beat TCU LY, perhaps BYU isn't as good but I think they are closer to what they were last year than TCU is this year.

I whole heartedly agree BYU is much weaker than Utah.

I also agree on betting teams coming off a dissapointing performance as Utah did against New Mexico but keep in mind Utah has displayed that kind of outing multiple times this season.

The BYU game I think alot of ppl are saying that game told more about BYU. Fore me, I know BYU is a fraud but I take that outing for TCU in realationship to the whole season and say it says as much about TCU.

-----IMO I take TCU over Oregon State easily. A Stanford - Utah game I see as an even matchup. I think it's incredibly noteworthy the performance TCU had vs. Stanford. Stanford beat Oregon State. Stanford beat Arizona. Stanford overcame a -4 TO deficit at Notre Dame too outrush the Irish by over 70 yards and lose by only 7.

---The way to beat Stanford is the pass. So TCU takes the run challenge head on and wins 233-71 and forgets the pass.

Stanford might not have the run defense of Utah but if there is any game with TCU where the game is going to be decided by the ground game-------TCU is going to win that battle easily.


IMO TCU is the superior teams but I am having reservations laying points on the road on a Thursday night giving TCU's time zone situation.

Jpicks no one is saying your a homer I would be interested in you talking me off TCU.
 
JPicks - I would love to get your opinion on this Game of the Year line from Sportsbook.cok...

11/22/08 BYU @ Utah -2.5

Utah favored by less than a field goal, AT HOME, in a MONSTER revenge game against their hated rivals? Am I crazy, or is this a steal? I'm ready to jump all over the Utes...

:shake:
 
If you have DirectTV you can add the CBS channel it's channel 613. They have some good games but mainly show the service academies. Lot's of SEC replays. It is broadcast in HD
 
vegaskyle said:
why ?? you are allowed to think your home team is going to win and cover , jpicks. I doubt there is anyone on the site whose opinion on mwc football or the utes is respected more than yours. Anyone who reads your threads knows you are sound and not a homer. Missing your feedback on this huge game would be missed. i am already locked in on tcu at -1 . But if it gets to say ... 3.5 or so i think i have to start considering a middle.

Even if you aren't going to discuss the game .. can you answer one question for me ??

Which team rtes to winthe turnover battle in your estimation ?
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i agree jpicks. it would be a travesty to not have some detailed stuff from you on the biggest mwc of the year.

kyle, are you confident tcu wins the turnover battle? i just don't see how dalton can't be affected mentally after throwing 4 picks in last year's game. he obviously struggles seeing things well against andersen's schemes. and now he's on the road. the great ones will see that as a challenge and maybe improve, but i don't see dalton as a great one. is he better than that game -- absolutely, and to a large extent. but i've been in dalton's position playing a team in a big game on the road after throwing 4 picks to them at home last year, and it's not pretty at all. it's a big enough burden for a qb going into a big game on the road, but now you have that game hanging over your head. johnson wasn't having a career day by any means, but he didn't make big mistakes and he was pretty efficient. i think tcu plays more conservative and eliminates some of the trick plays they pulled out last year because they're on the road and a much better team that probably doesn't think they need to do those things.. that agressiveness kept them competitive last year. i know they are a completely different team and much improved, but i think utah is too.

i think johnson is a significantly better qb. i think they'll be able to have success running the football as the game goes on because those big backs will take its toll on tcu's style of defense eventually. they won't rack up good ypc, but they'll rack up yards with lots of carries. last year mack got to 100 yards, but it took him 32 times to do so. now they have two fresh backs, and they just won't go away from the running game even if it's not working early. their defense and kicking game are both good enough to do so...and that's huge. a lot of teams can't afford to stick with the running game just to hope that it will work later. utah can imo. and it allows them to keep tcu off guard in the passing game, where the game will ultimately be won.

and i love patterson, but i disagree that you can put him leaps and bounds ahead of whittingham. i like whittingham quite a bit, and don't think that coaching decisions will have anything to do with a utah loss if there is one.

as i've said before, i don't think tcu is overrated much here. i think the value has been taken completely away from their side because of the last 5 games or so, but i think they're a very solid football team that deserves their ranking. the reason why i like utah is because i think they're grossly underrated here. there are a handful of teams that i'd make utah a dog at home against, and tcu definitely isn't one of them.
 
broadwayjoe said:
i agree jpicks. it would be a travesty to not have some detailed stuff from you on the biggest mwc of the year.

kyle, are you confident tcu wins the turnover battle? i just don't see how dalton can't be affected mentally after throwing 4 picks in last year's game. he obviously struggles seeing things well against andersen's schemes. and now he's on the road. the great ones will see that as a challenge and maybe improve, but i don't see dalton as a great one. is he better than that game -- absolutely, and to a large extent. but i've been in dalton's position playing a team in a big game on the road after throwing 4 picks to them at home last year, and it's not pretty at all. it's a big enough burden for a qb going into a big game on the road, but now you have that game hanging over your head. johnson wasn't having a career day by any means, but he didn't make big mistakes and he was pretty efficient. i think tcu plays more conservative and eliminates some of the trick plays they pulled out last year because they're on the road and a much better team that probably doesn't think they need to do those things.. that agressiveness kept them competitive last year. i know they are a completely different team and much improved, but i think utah is too.

i think johnson is a significantly better qb. i think they'll be able to have success running the football as the game goes on because those big backs will take its toll on tcu's style of defense eventually. they won't rack up good ypc, but they'll rack up yards with lots of carries. last year mack got to 100 yards, but it took him 32 times to do so. now they have two fresh backs, and they just won't go away from the running game even if it's not working early. their defense and kicking game are both good enough to do so...and that's huge. a lot of teams can't afford to stick with the running game just to hope that it will work later. utah can imo. and it allows them to keep tcu off guard in the passing game, where the game will ultimately be won.

and i love patterson, but i disagree that you can put him leaps and bounds ahead of whittingham. i like whittingham quite a bit, and don't think that coaching decisions will have anything to do with a utah loss if there is one.

as i've said before, i don't think tcu is overrated much here. i think the value has been taken completely away from their side because of the last 5 games or so, but i think they're a very solid football team that deserves their ranking. the reason why i like utah is because i think they're grossly underrated here. there are a handful of teams that i'd make utah a dog at home against, and tcu definitely isn't one of them.
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i think tcu wins the turnover battle. you have a good poitn about daltons game last year possibly being in his head .... but the guy was a turnover machine all year last season and has completely eliminated that this year. He has drastically improved .... the opposite of johnson who i feel was a really good qb prior to injuries but who has regressed since.

Tcu has forced 26 turnovers and committed just 11 ( 2 last week were the result of muffed punts in a west nevada wind ) ... and of the 11 only 4 are dalton picks. Granted utah is by far one of the best defenses he will have faced and one of the most hostile environments as well. utah on the other hand has forced 17 and committed 16 ... 8 of which were interceptions.

so in my opnion one team is systemically better at forcing turnovers and the other is more apt to turn it over. Homefield and the psychological aspects you mention are good points but overwhelmed by what has happened and what i have seen so far.

Also in regards to last year ..... TCU was in all sorts of shambles. They had all of the off the field steroid allegations and concerns , and what should have been a promising season was already shattered when they dropped games vs air force and wyoming .... from bcs buster material in preseason and heading into texas game to having nothing to play for. At the time they played utah was the better football team. Believe the opposite is true this time around.

relying on or expecting a team to have success running on this hornedfrog defense is just playing with fire in my opinion. One of the best run defenses i have ever seen. 1.42 ypc is just tough defense.

i give the coaching edge to patterson but i dont think it is leaps and bounds either. like both coaches a little bit but love the way patterson forms his football teams. slight edge .. definitely an edge imo but i may have made it sound like a big deal and it isn't. Certainly not like a pail johnson vs bobby bowden or something.

utah might be underrated. Their defense is really strong. Just question whether they can score at all in this one. Can tcu blow them out ? unlikely in salt lake city but more likely than the other way around. i can safely assume that utah does NOT score a ton here.

If utah does come out and whip tcu , i just have to tip my hat and say good job.


i make utah dogs at home to quite a few teams .... while msot of them would be powerhouse teams from major conferences.

Where i see utah having hte big edge is in the kicking game and in a game like this that could really hurt tcu ... but tcu has one of the better return games in cfb as well.

going to be a great game.
 
good points kyle, as always. we have different opinions on how good this utah team is no doubt. i will say that the fact that they've been a little reckless with the football is uncharacteristic for whittingham coached teams as they have a good margin under him and had a good margin last year with johnson at qb. you know what you're going to get out of johnson, and it likely includes that one pick a game. that's not good, but he's only had 3 multi-interception games in 30 starts...none this year. not many qbs can say that.

i do disagree with the overall assessment that he has been regressing since his injuries. he finished the year last year strong as hell last year winning the last 8 of 9 for the utes. he played great in the bowl game (was the mvp) and had a 143 qb rating. this year he also has a 143 qb rating and has already thrown for as many tds as he did last year total.

he shows up at home, and he shows up in big games. there's 3 games i'd categorize as big this year...mich, air force, oregon state --- in those three games he averaged 63% completions and 250 yards. even more than any stats can tell you; his intangibles are just outstanding...he's smart and he's an excellent leader who has won 17 out of his last 19 starts. he'll run an efficient offense and make some plays with his legs to keep plays alive.

one other thing on dalton is that he's only jacked it up 208 times this year. they've been dominating the line of scrimmage so much that they haven't needed his arm. they'll need his arm thursday.

just don't see the utes getting away from what they do. they've seen good defenses and speedy defenses over the last couple of years, including this one. louisville last year, michigan, ucla...i realize tcu has amazing numbers against the run, and i don't expect utah to have good or even really decent ypc against them. but they will be able to come up with yards as the game wears down. tcu hasn't had two 220lb+ backs of utah's caliber running at them 45 times. i think utah wins the rushing battle. just as you can't wrap your mind around a way tcu gets blown out, i can't wrap my mind around a way utah gets blown out, even under the worst circumstances. i see tcu having a much harder time moving it on utah in this environment. i'd be surprised if tcu scored over two tds in this one. it's the best defense and the second best offense tcu has faced all year imo.
 
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kicking game is obviously stellar for utah, but there has been some bigtime blocks against the utes in big games too...so there still is that risk
 
broadwayjoe said:
good points kyle, as always. we have different opinions on how good this utah team is no doubt. i will say that the fact that they've been a little reckless with the football is uncharacteristic for whittingham coached teams as they have a good margin under him and had a good margin last year with johnson at qb. you know what you're going to get out of johnson, and it likely includes that one pick a game. that's not good, but he's only had 3 multi-interception games in 30 starts...none this year. not many qbs can say that.

i do disagree with the overall assessment that he has been regressing since his injuries. he finished the year last year strong as hell last year winning the last 8 of 9 for the utes. he played great in the bowl game (was the mvp) and had a 143 qb rating. this year he also has a 143 qb rating and has already thrown for as many tds as he did last year total.

he shows up at home, and he shows up in big games. there's 3 games i'd categorize as big this year...mich, air force, oregon state --- in those three games he averaged 63% completions and 250 yards. even more than any stats can tell you; his intangibles are just outstanding...he's smart and he's an excellent leader who has won 17 out of his last 19 starts. he'll run an efficient offense and make some plays with his legs to keep plays alive.

one other thing on dalton is that he's only jacked it up 208 times this year. they've been dominating the line of scrimmage so much that they haven't needed his arm. they'll need his arm thursday.

just don't see the utes getting away from what they do. they've seen good defenses and speedy defenses over the last couple of years, including this one. louisville last year, michigan, ucla...i realize tcu has amazing numbers against the run, and i don't expect utah to have good or even really decent ypc against them. but they will be able to come up with yards as the game wears down. tcu hasn't had two 220lb+ backs of utah's caliber running at them 45 times. i think utah wins the rushing battle. just as you can't wrap your mind around a way tcu gets blown out, i can't wrap my mind around a way utah gets blown out, even under the worst circumstances. i see tcu having a much harder time moving it on utah in this environment. i'd be surprised if tcu scored over two tds in this one. it's the best defense and the second best offense tcu has faced all year imo.
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All of your points are well taken, joe .. i also think it is unlikely that tcu goes in there and stomps them bad. Also agree this is major step up in class for tcu compared to recent opponents. Disagree concerning johnson though .. he has regressed. very confident in that assessment. he is a good leader though and i dont want to come off sounding like i dont think he is a decent qb. i disagree that he played well vs oregon st this year until very very late ... but a game is sixty minutes long i guess.

always know you have good reasons behind your bets ..... health on this game though.

Also in regards to the kick blocking , tcu has not had their normal success in that arena this year and they blocked one for td last year vs utah so i doubt that utah is ill prepared for special teams blocking assignments for this game.

eyes are burning out of my skull right now and i cant look at the computer much longer.....have more on this game later.
 
To answer your question about the TO's Kyle I'd say that if you gave me + or even odds on TCU winning the TO's in the game I'd take them. Hard not to as the Utah defense has not been great at creating TO's. That said the only time TCU saw a defense on the road with much speed Dalton coughed up the ball in both. I think Utah can win if they lose the TO battle by 1, but anything more than that and they'll be in trouble. Broadwayjoe made alot of great points and covered alot of the reasons behind why I like the play.

Snowed about 6 inches by the stadium today, but it should all melt off before tip tomorrow as it's supposed to be sunny/partly cloudy all day. Game time temperature should be about 35 degrees or so.

I'll have a MWC thread tomorrow, but I played the following:

New Mexico -3 for 2 units. Biggest play of the year for me.
CSU +10
Utah +110
BYU/SDSU Over 59

Actually I'm not going to start a thread. This is it. :)
 
JPicks, wondering if you think Wyoming has a shot at covering. Tennessee has no offense, I would think 7-10 points would do it
 
E.T.G. said:
JPicks, wondering if you think Wyoming has a shot at covering. Tennessee has no offense, I would think 7-10 points would do it
Click to expand...

Wyoming typically is the other teams offense. I fully realized this when they were playing Utah and their punt return guy took one off the helmet and a Ute covered it up in the endzone to screw my under. I won't bet another Wyoming game until they play CSU in a big rivalry game, (glenn's last game) and I'll be on the Cowboys ML. Did the exact same thing last year with Sonny Lubick in the opposite scenario.

I will say that I know nothing about Tennessee other than they have a coach that eats more calories a day than he burns.
 
jpicks, unlv has mailed it in due to some tough losses and then the ass whooping? i assume you think they'll have trouble scoring?
 
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