TCU thoughts

[Elbutre88]

So i've been hearing a lot about TCU this year, and about how they could win the big12 and how everyone needs to watch out for this defense, so i started digging earlier than i normally would on a team like TCU, and here's a couple of my thoughts.



Last year they had the #1 ranked Defense in the big 12, and #16 in the country, which sounds pretty awesome on paper and in a soundbite, but when i looked harder at it, coupled with the fact that they will be without their badass d-end for the first 3 games, and a starting LB walking off the team, it made me wonder.

ISU put up 37
Baylor put up 21
TxTch put up 53 in an OT game
OkieSt put up 36
WVU put up 38
OU put up 17

TCU did hold VA, Grambling St, Kansas, SMU, Texas, and Michigan State to under 21 points.

Texas was a shell of it's normal self, OkieSt is gonna be the same, Baylor hadn't begun to really gel like they did at the end of the year.

Also, they're gonna have to move a tackle to a guard position after Mike Thompson essentially retired from college football for medical reasons.

Starting LB Joel Hasley straight up walked away from TCU football because he "wasn't having fun" anymore, according to Gary, but the reality is they didnt offer the dude that started 10games last year a scholarship. He felt slighted, and bounced. That can't be good for the locker room.

Starting OT Tayo Fubuluje quit because he wants to go back to Utah. Hmmmmmm...some kind of pattern?

TCU is putting out all kinds of press releases and mentioning two freshmen LB's in every interview they give.

6'2" Freshmen LB Sammy Douglas from Arlington HS, and
5'11" Freshmen LB Paul Whitmill from Bastrop.

Look, these guys are good. Real good. Whitmill played a little RB in HS as well, so he's got a feel for the ball, but it's not like we're looking at two 5 star recruits here, and the Big12 has shown a history of destroying freshmen LB's in the last few years.

I haven't even mentioned their QB returning from freakin rehab. Casey Pachall was popped for DWI after failing a few drug tests, so mid season he was shipped to rehab. He declined to talk to the Big 12 media during their media day, and has kept a pretty low profile since his return. gary has him under his thumb.

I have no doubt that Pachall and Boykin will produce some really sweet highlights against some of these big12 defenses, but will it be enough to compete if their defense isn't what it was last year? I don't know, but the reason i'm writing all this shit is because i think TCU is overvalued quite a bit. I think it's a lot of hype. I think having a freshman start at the LB position in the Big12 is kind of crazy considering how much the spread, run/shoot, etc is run, and how confusing it can be to a freshmen. We all saw this with Texas last year.

I'm gonna go through some of TCU's lines this year that i think might be a little off, again, i don't think TCU is gonna be a bad team, but them winning the Big12 i believe is a long-shot that people are falling for based on last year's defensive rankings.


TCU@TxTch+5.5

hmmm.road fav of +5.5? TCU will have this game circled, they lost last year in OT and have an open week after this game. They play S/E Louisiana the week before. This will be kingsbury's first Big12 home game, and it's gonna be televised on ESPN, at 6:30pm. Lubbock will be hammered. i think kingsbury might really be able to get some shit done here. The TCU game is sandwiched between Stephen F Austin and Texas State, so it's not like they won't be focused. Again, the freshmen LB's will have their first real test here. No, LSU's offense doesn't count.


TX@TCU-2.5

This one is off to me. Texas lost this game 20-13 in embarrassing fashion. TCU mounted a come back and exposed the Longhorn's defense for the 278th time last year. TCU has this game sandwiched between @OkieSt and home, vs WestVirginia. Texas has this game sandwiched between and open date and a home game vs Kansas....yeah. bad spot for TCU

TCU@KSU+1.5

I think this is closer to normal, but i still like the wildcats here. Again, a lot of this is speculation that TCU's freshmen LB's and back up hodge-podge of offensive lienemen will not be adjusted to big12 football. The KSU game is in November, so these kids are either gonna be on a roll, or they're gonna be exposed again. If my read on them is that they won't be able to reproduce last year's defensive statistics, and their O-line will be suspect, then i gotta take the cats at home.

Baylor@TCU-9.5

9.5 is a lot. but this might be the worst possible timing for baylor. This is a 5 week stretch that goes like this: VS OU, then VS TxTch, then @ OKIEST, then @TCU, followed by vs Texas. bought as brutal as you can get in the big12. So this baylor game is sandwiched between 2 open dates for TCU. This might be where the TCU offense shines, but i'm still not gonna lay the 9.5 based on my read of this defense. Especially playing baylor. Still can't do it, but with this schedule i can't take the bears either.




Overall, i think i'll be hitting the overs early w/TCU and think there is real value hitting some select dogs on the ML against them. Especially considering how the team chemistry could really, really fall apart after a tough loss. Who are they gonna turn to as their leader? The rehab QB? Their suspended DE? Their freshman LB's? Or their new RB, Boykin, who had to fill in for their drunj QB last year?

I guess i just didn't understand the hype surrounding the team this year with all that has been going on w/their personell. On a side note, i freaking love Gary, and think he might be the best coach in the Big12, so i'm not predicting to go undefeated in TCU games, i just thought not a lot was said about the other side of the horned frogs.

gl ya'll.

 

[Silkydiamonds]

Good stuff bro! Glad to see ya again

 

[Elbutre88]

thanks silk. i still think TCU's defense is gonna be pretty good in the big12, i just don't know how well they're gonna hold it together over there.

 

[s--k]

It's hard not to get atleast a strange, if not bad, vibe from TCU right now.

2011's #21 CB recruit and LSU transfer was dismissed from the team in June. He never played a down at TCU, but could have been a week 1 starter this season.

So for game 1 vs LSU, Frogs will be without B12 DPOY DE Fields, #2 tlk'r LB Hasley (2012 #1 and 1st tm LB Cain gone too) and a potential CB starter Jenkins is gone. This and a starting OL Fabulluje and a reserve Thompson won't be on the OL.

I think Fields will be back for T Tech, but a month ago I thought TCU had a good chance at opening 3-0 and while they still do have a shot, I'm thinking 2-1 or even 1-2 is more likely now. There are alot of TV and radio media people out there on the TCU bandwagon out the gate also, that tends to worry me. For all the preseason love they've been getting I'd think their win total would be higher than 8, so I suppose that tells me something too.

 

[Schrute]

wow, great writeup

Thanks for the info and opinions

 

[twinkie13]

I will be on LSU likely in that opener

 

[Elbutre88]

It's hard not to get atleast a strange, if not bad, vibe from TCU right now.

2011's #21 CB recruit and LSU transfer was dismissed from the team in June. He never played a down at TCU, but could have been a week 1 starter this season.

So for game 1 vs LSU, Frogs will be without B12 DPOY DE Fields, #2 tlk'r LB Hasley (2012 #1 and 1st tm LB Cain gone too) and a potential CB starter Jenkins is gone. This and a starting OL Fabulluje and a reserve Thompson won't be on the OL.

I think Fields will be back for T Tech, but a month ago I thought TCU had a good chance at opening 3-0 and while they still do have a shot, I'm thinking 2-1 or even 1-2 is more likely now. There are alot of TV and radio media people out there on the TCU bandwagon out the gate also, that tends to worry me. For all the preseason love they've been getting I'd think their win total would be higher than 8, so I suppose that tells me something too.

yeah, fields is gone for the first 2 games, i messed up there. But all this preseason hype just makes me feel weird considering all the shit that's gone on in the off-season. I feel like these talking heads are kind of ignoring what's going on in front of them. TCU's D is still returning like, 8 starters, so they'll be good, i just don't see them as the dominant unit that they were last year. Especially in the 1st half of the season.

 

[tooltones]

You're all looking at TCU the wrong way. They played the majority of last year with a redshirt freshman RB at QB and still made a bowl! Now you have that weapon, as well as Pachall, back and the D mostly struggled with field position problems due to, again, frosh RB running the offense. Hasley was offered a half-scholarship and already has his degree, but he was TERRIBLE on passing downs, constantly getting beat by RBs out the backfield/slot receivers or tight ends. Good riddance to him. This D will be nasty. Fields out for LSU will hurt, but I still like our chances against LSU in the opener.

If you want to be skeptical, concentrate on Pachall being his old self of the last "two" years. If he's 90% of his old self, my Frogs (yes, I went there) win at the very least 8 games even with that tough schedule.

 

[Elbutre88]

I get what your saying, but i think if you stepped back and just looked at what's been going on w/their personnel, you'd be a little skeptical too. Don't get me wrong, i think TCU is gonna have a good team, w/a good defense. My point is the defense is not going to be that good in the 1st half of the year, and I've got them under performing as a unit.

Doesn't even touch on the loss of O-linemen this off season. figured it's somethin to look at, that's all.

 

[Lareux]

You're all looking at TCU the wrong way. They played the majority of last year with a redshirt freshman RB at QB and still made a bowl! Now you have that weapon, as well as Pachall, back and the D mostly struggled with field position problems due to, again, frosh RB running the offense. Hasley was offered a half-scholarship and already has his degree, but he was TERRIBLE on passing downs, constantly getting beat by RBs out the backfield/slot receivers or tight ends. Good riddance to him. This D will be nasty. Fields out for LSU will hurt, but I still like our chances against LSU in the opener.

If you want to be skeptical, concentrate on Pachall being his old self of the last "two" years. If he's 90% of his old self, my Frogs (yes, I went there) win at the very least 8 games even with that tough schedule.

You had already "gone there." lol, just kidding. But I do think you're allowing the "homer" in you to see everything through rose-colored glasses.

Great thoughts Elbutre, much appreciated.

 

[Marsski]

Good stuff Elbutre88...got me sniffing around LSU now for week one...

 

[RetroVK]

In further defense of TCU defense from a year ago ... I think they played 6 teams in the top 25 in scoring offense.. so to finish as well as they did given being behind the offensive 8-ball is impressive especially when you factor in the losses they suffered to graduation last year. I mean we expected them to regress a bit last year even before the Pachall Situation. Team is gonna miss Boyce though.

 

[twinkie13]

Good stuff Elbutre88...got me sniffing around LSU now for week one...

Have to. Maybe the Defense is/was good....

 

[twinkie13]

If Les lets Cam run this offense...I think we get some serious improvement

 

[Elbutre88]

In further defense of TCU defense from a year ago ... I think they played 6 teams in the top 25 in scoring offense.. so to finish as well as they did given being behind the offensive 8-ball is impressive especially when you factor in the losses they suffered to graduation last year. I mean we expected them to regress a bit last year even before the Pachall Situation. Team is gonna miss Boyce though.

the big12 last year was damn near defense optional, and from what i got, you're talkin about baylor, okiest, wv, ou, and txtech.

TCU went 2-4 in those games.

but i understand the angle of the defense being over-worked due to the lack of offensive anything. I get that. TCU was ranked 72 in total offense from last year, right behind the offensive juggernaut that is pittsburgh. so i hear ya. and i'd hear it a lot louder if they didn't have so many personnel problems this offseason.

Again, i'm not saying the defense is gonna be bad, but i just think they're gonna be a little overvalued, as a unit. like i said earlier, they're returning 8 dudes on defense, so i don't think they'll be slouches. just think they'll be some early value on the overs and some ML dogs. we'll see though.