Talk to me about these leans...

[D-Woww]

Alright, so I posted the first two weeks and had very little success, so I decided before I play my leans to see if anyone has any points or feelings on them. So talk to me about these, as they are my initial leans:

Houston at Cincy. I really want to play Cincy here just because it looks sharp as hell. Am I missing something? I feel like taking the points is the way to go
TCU should come out firing vs Iowa St. ISU is just awful and I would think TCU wins this one by 30+


Miami/App state is a game that I feel like the public will be on UM and “sharps” on Appy State. But I don’t see App state doing it. Huge overadjustment to the line in my opinion due to Appy States week 1. Granted, they are a good team, but UM should handle.


I have bet on Kentucky both weeks and lost both weeks. Dare I go back to that poisoned well? I think this one does get ugly, but it is hard to bet on UK right now.


Really like Nebraska -3. Not even quite sure why, just looks like a winner. Love the unranked home teams vs ranked opponents.


South Florida is really really good. Not sure the oddsmakers are quite caught up with them yet. I am willing to lay 14 on the road against a team like Cuse. Over may be a better play though. Or USF teased?


Like WMU at Illinois. WMU is really good and doesn’t get as much respect as they deserve because of their name.


Does Arky take Texas State lightly after their big win? I would think so, but Texas State also may be overvalued because they beat a terrible Ohio team.
These are my initial thoughts.


Talk me out of or into the ones you agree with. Would love to hear some replies before finalizing.

 

[ksimpsc]

Cincy is 32-18 last 50 home underdog spots and last 3 games with Houston the margins were 3, 7, 8. Last year was 3. I am not convinced this Cinci team is better this year though.

 

[booksbestfriend]

I think you will find value on Ark 1st H. They should be able to do what they do best, run downhill.

 

[gps_3]

I always like betting the home underdog on Thursday night games, but it hasn't been hitting as much as it used to, or so it seems. Maybe the lines have adjusted?

I took App St. I haven't adjusted them or Miami since the preseason, and my #s had App St a small favorite

Kentucky is really bad at football. They are an automatic do not bet on for me. Lots of better options IMO

I'm on Nebraska and South Florida, so with you there

I feel like Ark plays up or down to their opponent more than any team in the country. I would be equally unsurprised if they won by 7 or 47

 

[Elbutre88]

on oregon. nebby is gonna have to run their way to victory, and with hoke moving from a 3-4 to a 4-3, i've got oregon's run stopping ability working out better this year than last.

oregon still has fast offensive weapons, and nebby's secondary is suspect, despite what they did in the 2nd half to poor wyoming.

armstrong thows at least one pick, and mr riley doesn't replicate the magic in corvallis. hopefully.

 

[sleepy]

I ended up taking Houston. Was not impressed with Cincy in week #1 against an easy opponent in Tenn Martin. Their defense sucked and Tenn Martin was able to control clock with the run and Cincy really had no answer for it. Their defense still sucked in week #2 against Purdue. The Boilermakers were able to move the ball pretty much at will but the 5 interceptions did them in. I just don't see how they are going to be able to stop Houston especially on a short week.

 

[CrimsonK]

Alright, so I posted the first two weeks and had very little success, so I decided before I play my leans to see if anyone has any points or feelings on them. So talk to me about these, as they are my initial leans:

Houston at Cincy. I really want to play Cincy here just because it looks sharp as hell. Am I missing something? I feel like taking the points is the way to go
Line and total seem pretty sharp to me. I don't mess with road chalk in these spots. I haven't kept up with Ward status but assume he will be fine. Not fun to try to run on Houston, fortunately for Cinci, they will just toss it around.

TCU should come out firing vs Iowa St. ISU is just awful and I would think TCU wins this one by 30+
At some point, Iowa State is going to produce some value. Is it here? Eh, maybe. Iowa St OL still a wreck but could benefit from a QB change as Park (Georgia transfer, I believe) got reps in garbage time in Iowa City. If you find a book that offers props or you are a DFS player, Alan Lazard would make my lineups as he could have a monster game, per usual. I'll look to potentially back them the next two weeks it looks like Park ends up being an upgrade/and/or even gets minutes and if the OL looks improved. Pretty large jump in price considering Iowa St was +15 LW at Iowa and now +24. I could only play Iowa State, I think, but I won't. Tough game emotionally for both teams, I think.


Miami/App state is a game that I feel like the public will be on UM and “sharps” on Appy State. But I don’t see App state doing it. Huge overadjustment to the line in my opinion due to Appy States week 1. Granted, they are a good team, but UM should handle.
Miami first game against a team with a pulse. This is a game under Golden they would lose for sure, has Richt changed the culture enough? Probably not. Kaaya is a guy that many pundits had being a sure-fire NFL QB, I disagree, but he hasn't been overly impressive thus far. Miami offense still doesn't look n'sync to me although their rushing numbers are killer. I think theyre super inflated due to competion played and I expect them to really struggle offensively this week in Boone. If you know any App St fans you will know this game has been talked about for many moons - they are expecting the largest crowd in city history for the game. I expect both teams will want to rely on the ground game, I think App St has more success with it but don't expect a ton fro them offensively either. I bet the U54, I made the total 47 and also made the game a pick. I preferred the under but have App St on my radar if Miami takes money in next few days. I'll call it 24-23 Appy on a late FG to win it. Looks like the early forecasted weather won't be an issue but the cold may be for the S FL boys, temps looking to be right around 70 at kick. Appy physically dominated the LOS against Tenn and I expect same here.


I have bet on Kentucky both weeks and lost both weeks. Dare I go back to that poisoned well? I think this one does get ugly, but it is hard to bet on UK right now.
This is prob the week to do it


Really like Nebraska -3. Not even quite sure why, just looks like a winner. Love the unranked home teams vs ranked opponents
Prukopp looks awesome leading the Ducks offense. The Ducks DL may get pushed past the sticks each play. No opinion

South Florida is really really good. Not sure the oddsmakers are quite caught up with them yet. I am willing to lay 14 on the road against a team like Cuse. Over may be a better play though. Or USF teased?
I leaned USF at open but passed. I think some of the things we saw Ville do to them will be in play for USF here. I hope they play poorly though because I'm looking to back them next week. I think OVER warrants a look as well.

Like WMU at Illinois. WMU is really good and doesn’t get as much respect as they deserve because of their name.
I bet the U59.5 and have a lean to WMU. Illinois is abysmal at the QB spot and the WMU defense is really, really good but if there is succeptibility it's down the field through the air. I don't see the Illini being able to take advantage of that. WMU defense prob a bit better and offense slightly worse than LY. I don't think Illinois cracked the 300 yard mark against UNC last week, maybe they did barely, and I'm pretty sure my HS football team could match that productivity against Chiz'z defense. Wouldn't blame you for taking WMU, absolute must-win for Illinois but they aren't very good. I think it's lower scoring and WMU wins.

Does Arky take Texas State lightly after their big win? I would think so, but Texas State also may be overvalued because they beat a terrible Ohio team.
These are my initial thoughts.
Don't bet on this game


Talk me out of or into the ones you agree with. Would love to hear some replies before finalizing.

My thoughts above in red. :cheers3:

 

[Br@ssknux]

Agree with Crimson's thoughts above re: Illinois/WMU. Garrick McGee obviously has a good amount of credibility as an OC, and he didn't even think about throwing the ball more than 5 yards downfield until they were 2 scores down in the 4th quarter. For whatever reason, he does not believe Lunt can be successful going downfield, and although I am not a Lunt fan, it's likely more an indictment of their receivers not being able to beat press coverage. It's a shame for them that Mike Dudek tore his ACL for the 2nd consecutive year because he was just about the best WR in the Big Ten and would surely help in that area. If Illinois matches the 23 they scored last week, they would probably take it.

Since WMU is facing a team that is unlikely to expose their problem area, I think they'll be in pretty good shape. They will, however, need to address the Illinois DL, because that group is legit, as is Nickerson at MLB. As Crimson mentions, U59 probably the play.

 

[CrimsonK]

Let me walk back my "really, really" in referring to the WMU defense. What I should have said is the WMU defense looks good to me and should improve from last year.

Brass thanks for the additional insight. A lot of what I read in regards to last game is how the Illini WR couldn't get open so perhaps it's a combo of Lunt not being trustworthy to make a lot of the throws yet and the guys around him aren't helping. I think I may have also read Illini may be without one of best OL, although I've read so much this week I have lost track of which team it was

 

[J Galt]

If i give you some good info do I get some of that Philly Fastbreak money?

 

[D-Woww]

thats a lot for teh replies. this is what i should have done in past weeks. sometimes you gotta hear the other side. having said that im liking Cincy. that game is going to be close

 

[D-Woww]

If i give you some good info do I get some of that Philly Fastbreak money?

tail my picks and ull get plenty of money

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Im betting Cinncy tonight. Gonna hope Ward is still not 100%.

 

[J Galt]

tail my picks and ull get plenty of money

Lol

 

[M.W.]

Will be on Arkansas and UK and probably on Neb and USF.

UK really needs a win here, and NMSU is off a big upset win in its top rivalry game. Last time UK really needed a win was just 4 games ago, and they beat Charlotte 58-10. UK only has USC on deck, at home.

Arkansas has a bit of a lookahead, but the Hogs should have some mo off the upset win. Still, their offense will need to come to life.

The numbers didn't work for UO versus UVA last week, and I can't make them work in this one. UO remains overrated.