Tail or Fade: CFB Week 14

[rambler882]

Week 1: 3-10, -7.78u
Week 2: 5-4, +0.57u
Week 3: 10-4, +6.9u
Week 4: 8-7, -1.05u
Week 5: 6-9, -2.84u
Week 6: 7-9, -2.63u
Week 7: 10-3, +6.6u
Week 8: 2-13, -12.96u
Week 9: 9-7, +.81u
Week 10: 8-8, -.8u
Week 11: 6-10, -5.05u
Week 12: 8-5, +5.08
Week 13: 7-7, -.62u
Season: 89-96, -13.77u

 

[rambler882]

Ball St. -3, 1u -115
Virginia +3, 1u -115
Cincinnati +11.5, 1u -101
Nebraska +6, 1u -115
Northwestern +7, 1u -120
Tulsa -5.5, 2u -108
Indiana / Washington, 1u -113
Ohio St. -3 / Central Michigan -6, 1u +101
Liberty -14, 1u -105
Wisconsin -2.5, 1u -120
Georgia Southern -7, 1u -105
Auburn u23.5, .75u -110

Texas -3 / OPEN, 1u -105
Oklahoma -7 / OPEN, 1u -105

TCU -7 / CLOSED, 1u -115
Oregon -19.5, 1u -105
Pittsburgh -3 / CLOSED, 1u -105
Texas A&M +17, 1u -105
Iowa St. -5, 1u -105

Arizona +14, 1u -109
Army o27, 1u +100

 

[rambler882]

Waiting on...

Cincinnati +11.5
Michigan +10
Nebraska +6
San Diego St. +3.5
South Carolina +28

 

[s--k]

What is it you like on San Diego State other than a key number?

 

[rambler882]

What is it you like on San Diego State other than a key number?

Thanks for swinging by. I'll start by stating I do not factor or cap "motivation" as there is no real way to know. I've tried it in the past and seemingly swung and missed too many times on "motivation" or "something to play for" or "new coach" or "______". Who the heck knows.

This play is purely based on numbers. BYU to start the year had a very tough schedule but their last 4 were against Utah St., Liberty, Idaho St., and UMASS. To say, folks may say they are hot but they won games they were supposed to win. San Diego St. tends to keep games close tied to coaching and style of play so at a macro level I look at these two in the same ballpark of quality. Based on some metrics factoring in schedule, etc. BYU is ranked in the 55-65 range, SDST 60-75.

BYU is much better offensively than SDST, SDST is a bit better defensively. I tend to lean to defenses in these matchups and I'm still not sold on them yet. Doing more digging and diligence here. It is also a classic obvious BYU pick.

 

[s--k]

I like BYU but you touch on one of my concerns with them. I don’t really like it when the recent opponents have been weak and things have come too easy. And they’ve been on easy street the last 2. Liberty is decent and BYU did have to work a little there. But Idaho St and UMass in no way get you ready to play Aztecs.

So I hesitate on that but still do like BYU as I think SDSt is an opponent they will really be up for (rivals from MW & WAC days). Maybe SDSt will too although nobody really gets up for the Mormons as all have more important things to worry about. Like you say, can’t know but I am going to expect SDSt to be a little to a lot flat. If not, I already know I will love a BYU 2nd H bet if they are trailing.

I’ve been on and against SDSt a lot this year. They really aren’t good but often find ways when maybe they shouldn’t. Kinda their MO. No way I lay too many with BYU, if it climbs too high I’ll just wait or go small and see if I can get a decent spot at HT.

 

[rambler882]

I like BYU but you touch on one of my concerns with them. I don’t really like it when the recent opponents have been weak and things have come too easy. And they’ve been on easy street the last 2. Liberty is decent and BYU did have to work a little there. But Idaho St and UMass in no way get you ready to play Aztecs.

So I hesitate on that but still do like BYU as I think SDSt is an opponent they will really be up for (rivals from MW & WAC days). Maybe SDSt will too although nobody really gets up for the Mormons as all have more important things to worry about. Like you say, can’t know but I am going to expect SDSt to be a little to a lot flat. If not, I already know I will love a BYU 2nd H bet if they are trailing.

I’ve been on and against SDSt a lot this year. They really aren’t good but often find ways when maybe they shouldn’t. Kinda their MO. No way I lay too many with BYU, if it climbs too high I’ll just wait or go small and see if I can get a decent spot at HT.

They will probably have to a be a stay away for me.

 

[rambler882]

Cincinnati +11.5, 1u -101
Nebraska +6, 1u -115

 

[rambler882]

Arizona +14, 1u -109

 

[rambler882]

Central Michigan -6 / OPEN, 1u +101

 

[rambler882]

Texas -3 / OPEN, 1u -105

 

[s--k]

While I wasn't looking yesterday BYU went to 6 and came back down to 5. That is rich.

 

[rambler882]

While I wasn't looking yesterday BYU went to 6 and came back down to 5. That is rich.

That is the worst.

 

[s--k]

I can't lay pts like that with BYU in this game. LIke I said earlier, my plan will be to hope and get them on sale in the 2nd H if they are behind.

 

[s--k]

Spent some time on Aztec message board this morning. Pretty funny hearing the fans disappointment and dispair with their team and the game. Fans always swing too far one way or the other, but it is funny.

Anyway, line movement is due to Agnew being labeled emergency QB this week. Carson Barker is starting, never played. CrimsonK was on it in his thread too, but he's always on top of the news.

 

[rambler882]

Georgia Southern -7, 1u -105

 

[rambler882]

Leaning Michigan or will wait to live bet in-game.

 

[rambler882]

Leaning Michigan or will wait to live bet in-game.

Changed my mind. Closing Central Michigan with Ohio St. -3

Northwestern +7, 1u -120

 

[rambler882]

Auburn u23.5, .75u -110

 

[rambler882]

Why not a night cap.

Army o27, 1u +100

 

[rambler882]

Losing the 2nd leg of 2 teasers was tough but hit the first legs on 2 more. Thanks for stopping by all and let's cash the final 2 plays.

 

[rambler882]

Week 1: 3-10, -7.78u
Week 2: 5-4, +0.57u
Week 3: 10-4, +6.9u
Week 4: 8-7, -1.05u
Week 5: 6-9, -2.84u
Week 6: 7-9, -2.63u
Week 7: 10-3, +6.6u
Week 8: 2-13, -12.96u
Week 9: 9-7, +.81u
Week 10: 8-8, -.8u
Week 11: 6-10, -5.05u
Week 12: 8-5, +5.08
Week 13: 7-7, -.62u
Week 14: 13-6, +7.84u
Season: 102-102, -5.93u