T-Diddy's NCAFF Week 5

[TopDaddy]

T-Diddy's NCAAF Week 5

3-1 posted Week 4
8-4-2 YTD posted (+4.29 U)
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Plays for Week 5:

LSU -24
Western Michigan -4
Purdue PK
Oregon State +26.5
Louisville -3

Leans for Week 5:

SMU +17 @ Tulane: WHAT? The Wave hasn't laid more than 7 in five years, and has only laid 17+ four times since the '98 undefeated season. They are 0-4 ATS in those four. (Should've taken it! Oh well...)

Wake Forest -15 v. Navy: Just think Wake is 3+ TDs better here, simple as that.

Arky State PK @ Memphis: Won't stay at a PK, but like the Indians, err... Red Wolves, here...

 

[TopDaddy]

Adding:

LSU -24 v. Mississippi State:

First of all, I've got this line more in the 28-30 range, so there's definitely value right off the bat for me. The deficits in this game going back the last five years are: 45, 31, 30, 51, and 35, so laying 24 is fine by me.

The main thing I want to talk about is Croom's style of offense. It isn't much different from any other SEC team, run, run, run to set up the pass. To illustrate, I looked at 3 wins from last season: Auburn, Kentucky, and Alabama to get a feel for Croom's play balance when things go right:

Auburn: 70% run, 30% pass
Kentucky: 61% run, 39% pass
Alabama: 67% run, 33% pass

This is Croom's gameplan. It's his ONLY gameplan. If this gameplan doesn't workout, he has no Plan B. Now let's take a look at State's 3 losses this year and see the play balance:

La Tech: 57% pass, 43% run
Auburn: 45% pass, 55% run (still in it for the entire game, but still went away from the grand scheme)
Georgia Tech: 63% pass, 37% run

Teams are stuffing the run (evident the the fact that State does not have a 100 yard rusher as of yet, even against SE Louisiana) and the Bulldogs are forced to go away from the run, before it's established, and pass. The only problem is: they don't have a passer, or a playmaker at WR. Croom is still trying to keep the faith in Carroll, but has been forced to insert Tyson Lee into the game for all but the Auburn game. Bottom line is that the run game has to work in order for State to put points on the board. This has not been the case all season, and it's reflective in thier record. What this leads me to believe is that Croom, knowing he does not have the personel for a passing offense, will still try to run first, run second, pass third. By the time they realize it's not working, they will be down by two or more scores, and the gameplan will be trashed, and the sub-par passing game will rear its head. That's when turnovers will occur (which State has 12 of in 4 games), and this team will get deflated, as they are very prone to.

Taking a look at the numbers:

*Mississippi State scored 14 points against the 110th best D in the country, 2 points against the 20th best D, 7 points against the 30th best D, and now they're playing the 18th best defense in the country.

*LSU is allowing 2 yards per carry (11th nationally), and 50% pass completion.

*LSU's Charles Scott is 6th nationally averaging 131 rushing yards per game.

*State is 97th nationally with 3.3 yards per rush attempt, and 100th nationally with 5.8 yards per pass attempt.

*State is 93rd nationally giving up 181 rushing yards per game (430+ against Tech didn't help that stat)

I honestly don't think that State scores more than a garbage TD late possibly added to a FG from the first quarter, and I definitely think that LSU is good for 35+.

LSU -24

GL fellas

 

[RetroVK]

Ville is going to be hard for me to stay away from as well. Always get burned when i fade uconn though.

good luck this week Tdad

 

[RambleOn]

On LSU as well. Any thoughts on the first half? LSU has dominated this series much more in the first half. Last 5 or so years they've been up by about 30 at half. I'm thinking the line will be 14 and anything less will just be awesome.

 

[halfpoint]

Navy rarely gets blown out. Not saying they won't but they always seem to be in EVERY game

 

[nawlins51]

GL buddy.LSU should beat the shit out of them

 

[halfpoint]

Wake beat Navy by 20 last year in a relatively "even" game.

Wake scored the last 17 pts so it was close most of the way. Also, Navy fumbled 3 times.

 

[TopDaddy]

On LSU as well. Any thoughts on the first half? LSU has dominated this series much more in the first half. Last 5 or so years they've been up by about 30 at half. I'm thinking the line will be 14 and anything less will just be awesome.

You just never really know with this LSU team as to how they'll come out. They typically don't enter a game flat, but they're not above doing it from time to time. LSU was up on App St by 31 at half, up on North Texas by 27 or so at half, and was down by 11 against Auburn, so who knows. Also have to remember that they were down to Tulane at half last year, but that was an emotional game.

I just don't see any way that the moose comes into play here, so you may as well give LSU the full about of time to cover the points, as they may come out a little flat against a weak team.

 

[TopDaddy]

Wake beat Navy by 20 last year in a relatively "even" game.

Wake scored the last 17 pts so it was close most of the way. Also, Navy fumbled 3 times.

Good points, but I have yet to really look into any of my lean besides LSU, so I'm sure that'll come up. I just really like the way Wake's D is playing.

 

[TopDaddy]

Kyle- The Ville showed me up last week, and I just cannot get over UConn's last two performances. Again, it's just something that I liked at first glance, and I'll have to look further into it.

nawlins- :shake: Hope you're right. Something else of note is the fact that Les typically likes to expend all his and his team's energy in the game before a bye week. I don't know if he does that conciously, or it it just works out that way.

 

[Marlo]

Looks good on LSU with you TD good luck

 

[nawlins51]

Kyle- The Ville showed me up last week, and I just cannot get over UConn's last two performances. Again, it's just something that I liked at first glance, and I'll have to look further into it.

nawlins- :shake: Hope you're right. Something else of note is the fact that Les typically likes to expend all his and his team's energy in the game before a bye week. I don't know if he does that conciously, or it it just works out that way.

I think Les just gets his boys up for the big games.I personally can't stand the man. I am a Saban fan. I know a lot will be ready to hang me for that comment but he built the program.Les just inherited like a spoiled brat and has a GOD complex.I didn't play on LSU but I do have them winning by 28. Miss will keep it close the 1st half.I will look for a 2nd half bet on this game because I believe I can get this at the half with a lot less points for the cover. If it is tied for the half I am pretty sure we won't see LSU-24.It will be around 14 and thats when I would take it.Just my opinion on this one.:shake:

 

[TopDaddy]

Marlo- :shake:

nawlins- Saban fan? Don't say that too loud around your parts. If we're talking homer talk, I couldn't stand Saban when he was with LSU, but now that he's my team's coach, he might as well have hung the moon. I am absolutely amazed at his recruiting and ability to set a fire under a fan base that hasn't had much to cheer about in 10+ years. As for Les, I don't hate him, but I do think he's probably the luckiest SOB that has ever coached D-I football. He's a gambler, and he's up on the house big at this point.

 

[nawlins51]

Marlo- :shake:

nawlins- Saban fan? Don't say that too loud around your parts. If we're talking homer talk, I couldn't stand Saban when he was with LSU, but now that he's my team's coach, he might as well have hung the moon. I am absolutely amazed at his recruiting and ability to set a fire under a fan base that hasn't had much to cheer about in 10+ years. As for Les, I don't hate him, but I do think he's probably the luckiest SOB that has ever coached D-I football. He's a gambler, and he's up on the house big at this point.

Saban buys players. I know a lot probably think I am full of shit but I know this for a fact.I will tell you 1 story. Laron Landry was recruited hard by LSU.He made a soft verbal to them and was going there.Well a few guys from our area wanted him to go to Miami.You probably know a few from my area that are in the pros that was pushing him to go to Miami.Anyway he called Saban and told him" look I decided to go to Miami what can you do for me". I swear the next morning he had a brand new Yukon in his driveway.We know where Laron went.LSU. Saban buys bluechips.Its no secret down here nor do the people care as long as LSU is winning. People act like they don't know.Saban is notorious for this. You think he can come in Alabama and his 1st recruiting class be one of the top.Its not the program of Alabama getting these recruits,its the money.You can't recruit that well by just saying come to our school. This is the new era of college football and its big business.These recruits know this. Believe it or not but thats a true story.I know a lot more with several other schools too. I don't care because I played ball once and know the system. I went to a campus visit my senior year to Miss State and they wine and dined me and my mom.Then they took me where all the women hung around. They sure knew what I was interested in...lol

 

[TopDaddy]

I don't doubt it one bit, I would like to hope that he can get a #1 class based on his abilities as a coach, but who knows. I just know that Bama will be among the SMUs if they get on probation one more time. This last probation about put us there anyway, as it was arguably the 2nd most severe punishment handed down on a football program behind SMU. I honesly hope he's not doing that, as I've always been an ethical person, and wish that people in his position would do the same.

 

[Tide High]

Saban buys players. I know a lot probably think I am full of shit but I know this for a fact.I will tell you 1 story. Laron Landry was recruited hard by LSU.He made a soft verbal to them and was going there.Well a few guys from our area wanted him to go to Miami.You probably know a few from my area that are in the pros that was pushing him to go to Miami.Anyway he called Saban and told him" look I decided to go to Miami what can you do for me". I swear the next morning he had a brand new Yukon in his driveway.We know where Laron went.LSU. Saban buys bluechips.Its no secret down here nor do the people care as long as LSU is winning. People act like they don't know.Saban is notorious for this. You think he can come in Alabama and his 1st recruiting class be one of the top.Its not the program of Alabama getting these recruits,its the money.You can't recruit that well by just saying come to our school. This is the new era of college football and its big business.These recruits know this. Believe it or not but thats a true story.I know a lot more with several other schools too. I don't care because I played ball once and know the system. I went to a campus visit my senior year to Miss State and they wine and dined me and my mom.Then they took me where all the women hung around. They sure knew what I was interested in...lol

:blahblah:
everyone knows blue chips get paid... everywhere. takes more than just cash. gotta have charisma and gotta convince the boys they're going to the niffel and gonna win a ship first.

 

[nawlins51]

I don't doubt it one bit, I would like to hope that he can get a #1 class based on his abilities as a coach, but who knows. I just know that Bama will be among the SMUs if they get on probation one more time. This last probation about put us there anyway, as it was arguably the 2nd most severe punishment handed down on a football program behind SMU. I honesly hope he's not doing that, as I've always been an ethical person, and wish that people in his position would do the same.

He won't get caught.He may get investigated but won't get caught. Saban is slick. Its the Alumni who does this and these big programs know the loopholes and how to cover shit up. Too much money involved and the NCAA turns there head until the media starts to exploit it.As long as the media has no evidence their will never be an investigation.

Most coaches are good people but there is so much pressure to win and a lot of money is given to these coaches. They do what they have to do and topdaddy you and me would do the same thing. Its not a character issue but a business decision.You either get the top recruits any way possible or you lose in division 1 football. All big programs do it.Just so much money involved with college football now that programs must get the top recruits to get those TV contracts.

 

[nawlins51]

:blahblah:
everyone knows blue chips get paid... everywhere. takes more than just cash. gotta have charisma and gotta convince the boys they're going to the niffel and gonna win a ship first.

I agree with you. A lot has to go in play. Players do look for coaches and schools who are a NFL factory and do look for the contention of a ship. But money helps that decision more than a ship.:shake:

 

[TopDaddy]

Adding:

Western Michigan -4: A DiMichele-less Temple is back to the Temple of old IMO.

Purdue PK: Was going to do a big ole write up bout this one, but got lazy, so just take it for what it's worth. REALLY liked it when it came out at +2, but my book opened it up at a PK, so I still like it, as I think that Painter is a stud, and Clauson is good for 2 picks a game. Don't give The Irish too much credit for the Michigan game, as Michigan turned the ball over like it was their job, and the game was essentially 14-0 before the national anthem. Not sold on the Fighting Lou's.

 

[TopDaddy]

adding:

Oregon St. +26.5: feel that I got a great line here, and also did a little research into this matchup over the past 30 years. Some may be relavent, most probably won't be, but it is what it is:

The final line between these two teams over the last 30 years has only exceeded this number ONE time (1982, 30). This game was in L.A.

Therefore, the line hasn't been this high between these two teams in Corvallis in at least the past 30 years. (As far as my database goes back)

The last time USC beat OSU in Corvallis by this margin or greater was 1990.


Now, Oregon St has historically been a bottom rung team, going without a winning season from 1971-1999, including a ZERO win season, 6 ONE win seasons, and 4 TWO win seasons in the '80s and '90s alone. So what this tells me is that historically, USC is always expected to win in this matchup, but they RARELY play Oregon St as hard as they could. Obviously, the question is not: Can USC beat Oregon St by 26+, it's WILL they win by 26+. I personally don't think they will. They're also the potential angle of the ever so slight look ahead to Oregon for USC. Maybe... maybe not.

GL on whatever you play fellas, as I have honestly NEVER been so baffled by any weeknight lines before in my betting life. Maybe that's good, I don't know.<!-- / message -->

 

[TopDaddy]

adding:

Louisville -3 v. UConn:

I have tried to approch this game from most every angle I know how, and most everything comes up inconclusive. Both teams have some pretty impressive stats, but look a little deeper, and how impressive are they:

*UConn is 5th in the nation with 285 rushing yards per game. However, their opponents include teams ranked 115, 105, and 57 in rush defense.

*UConn is ranked 21st in total defense, but their opponents are ranked 114, 119, and 29 in total offense. The 29th ranked O was Baylor, and most of us will agree that Baylor made UConn's D look silly at times.

*Louisville is 2nd in the nation in rush defense allowing only 42 yards per game. However, their opponents are ranked 62 and 90 in rush offense.

So stats are out the door for the most part, but there is some good stuff to take from it. I do feel that this is the best rush D that UConn has seen thus far, and that may force the Huskies to be a little more two diminsional, as opposed to running the ball 50 times a game. But can you trust Lorenzen to make the plays on 3rd and 5; or any other time he's forced to make a play? He's currently completing 58% of his passes, which isn't horrible when the team isn't depending on the passing game, but he has a 1:6 TD/INT ratio. So if the run gets shut down, relative to UConn being used to running 50 times for close to 300 YPG, is the passing game available to put points on the board. I don't think so, personally, and that's one of my main reasons for liking this game.

The other is the fact that: since joining the Big East after '04, Louisville has not lost a conference game on a weeknight at home, either SU or ATS. There's something electric about Papa Johns Stadium on a weeknight. I feel that UL could play with anyone in that atmosphere, and I feel that only Boise has a bigger HFA given the same situation.

There's a lot of experience on both sides of the ball on both sides of the field, so what it all comes down to when two teams are this evenly matched is the environment. It's big enough to lay 3 IMO.

Louisville -3

GL fellas...

 

[RambleOn]

Nice thoughts TD. :shake: