System picks for DEC 12 (YTD: 24-19 +10.5 units)

[teskey]

Yet another one who jumped ship from one of those "other" forum sites and ended up here ... in cappers paradise. Hopefully I'll be able to add something to the great discussions that take place here.

Just by way of background, I've been running the same system for 4 or 5 seasons now that produces power ratings based on margin of victory/defeat only. Wins and losses don't mean anything to my system. That way weak teams that lose close games to stronger opposition will have their rating's go up while the stronger team's ratings will go down.

It's been very successful. Made me over 90 units last season.


** TONIGHT'S PICKS **

1* Denver -5.5 -> my system says this line should be more like -8.5.

5* Seattle +4.5 -> system has this at SEA -2
5* Houston -2.5 -> system numbers say HOU -8.5

Best of luck tonight with your picks. :cheers:

 

[driver]

I'm on the Bucks. I like your other picks though. :shake:

 

[abcs]

:beer:

 

[reNew Orleans]

GL today, welcome to the site.

 

[teskey]

Thanks driver, abcs.

 

[DuY!]

nice to see you here

 

[TheJuiceIsLoose32]

Thanks, was mulling the SEA and HOU picks - good info. Another thread showed ATL home record against DEN 11-1 - of course I read that after dropping 4 units on it at -5.5. I still think they take them with JJ in...

 

[Retburj13]

:smiley_acbe:GL teskey...good to see you over here

 

[teskey]

Thanks guys.

Juice .... the Houston play is my strongest of the night. I really think that line is off by quite a bit.

My system has Houston with a 14-pt advantage in home/away, 9 pts in last 5 and 2.5 pts in games vs Western conf teams. I really think that there's a public love-in with the Lakers right now that explains this line.

Hope that bodes well for us.

 

[roondog]

teskey, does your system allow for mcgrady to be out?? i thought he was out tonite.

 

[teskey]

roondog ... he is out and that's why I've scaled it back to a 5* play instead of a 10*.

I really think Yao is going to have a great game. This hinges on the rest of the Rockets to make open shots when Yao passes out of the double team. If Yao gets 30 and the rest of Houston shoots around 45% they win easy.

If they were playing this at Staples, I'd steer clear but I expect Battier, Howard and Alston to pick up the slack left by T-mac's absence.

 

[B.A.R.]

Looks solid Teskey. Good to havre you aboard. Look forward to many winners.

 

[redbearde]

welcome to the site bro. Even without McGrady, I like houston tonight...we'll see how the kobes do on the road...we know they can play at home. I'm with you on Denver, and I totally agree the line strikes me as low even now...

:shake:

 

[phillyfan18]

gl teskey.

 

[DJFadeAway]

i like em!

 

[3gamblers]

GL