• PICK CLUB WEEK #1 LINES ARE POSTED!

Superbowl-- How the Line was SET-

Sammy Meatballs

Sammy Meatballs

Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
In a game of this magnitude the SUPERBOWL this is how they come up with the line of Pitts -7. We will use the line of 7 for this tutorial.

Why is PItts -7?

Could Zona not be -3?

Could Pitts be -3?

Could Pitts be -5.5?


Lets go to last year- There was a football game that was to be played on the field and it was Pats -11 over giants-

WHy was Pats -11 last year? PERCEPTION- SEEING is believing. They knew what the demand was in the marketplace and how they can set the line.
You see they understand US- they know us- they own us- they know what we will do before we do it-
This is how the line of -11 was set on PATS -11 last year-

Did someone analyze the game, the teams and run a simulation and say OKAY the result is 34-23-- make the line -11 and total of 57--

You see they know us inside out, they know how we think, they know what we will do before they set out a line--

This years line of roughly -6.5 -----

Could they have made Pitts -3-- Yes they could have made that line-

Could they have made zona -3-- Yes they could have made that line

Could they made PItts -6.5 yes they could have made that line

Could they have made PItts -8.5 Yes they could have made that line-


What they have done is very very clever. They are sitting there and have absolutely NO FUCKING CLUE who will win this game. Last year did they know the Giants would win the game? Not a chance just like they have noc clue if ZONA or PITTS will win--

i'll tell you what they know, THEY KNOW US- they know how to set a perfect line out there that will make people think twice and say hmm hmm-

So the line they set on this game is BASED ON US and has nothing to do with the teams that will play on the field on SUNDAY--

This is PROVEN by Sammy Exhibit #1-- Superbowl double DIGIT DOGS?

Why are double Digit DOGS winning games outright in the Super Bowl?

Answer- Because the line has nothing to do with the game and has everything to do with US--
Cant you see it, you are basically betting against YOURSELF--

So I dont know if I am crazy or getting smarter? Been eating a lot of almonds and this MANGO JUICE of late.

So the bottom line in this game is the Line of -7 is giving a FREE TD TO ZONA in a game where Vegas has no idea who will win. This game should be a PICKEM--

In this case it should be a PICKEM? There is no reason that PItts is laying -7 points? There is no valid reason in the world that anyone can argue with that point?

Not beating Indy, Tenny and Giants this year does that warrant laying -7?

In a one game elimination game the spread is really irelevant, past performances dont count. SO if they dont count why are teams favored?
They are favored because they have to try and level out the betting and keep it equal.
In this case they feel that PITTS has earned a 7 point ADVANTAGE over zona due to their performance during the YEAR and also a 7 point advantage will work with the betting PUBLIC?

When you take a deep breath and think about it, here is what you are doing, you are basically giving a FREE 7 points away? Cause as i proved you have paid -7 with Pitts because of their performance during the reg season and their perception with the public that people will bet on them at -7.

BUt the game is 0-0-- WIth this logic Zona is leading 7-0 to start with-

There is no reason to have a favorite in a SUPERBOWL game, this is why the favored teams double digits LOSE-- because they were FAVOREd by double digits not because they were better, because WE MADE THEM FAVORED WITH OUR BEHAVIOUR AND BETTING PATTERNS--

THink about this, i think I am on to something and deserve some kind of AWARD Here for discovering this. Either that or I am nuts!:seeya:

So in summary-- There is a game being played in 2 weeks, no one knows who will win, but they know US, and our tendecies so they have made Pitts -7 in the process. DOes it mean they are 7 points better to reg season play? No it is -7 because they can get away with it, because enough people believe that this team is worth it due to their reg season play. But what does the reg season play have to do with a SUPERBOWL game? It has nothing to do with it, and you are starting behind the 8 ball down a TD for no reason at all.

In reality Zona could be -7 but no one would believe that score as it is off the line by about 13 points right? WELL no one believed the giants could win and they beat the LINE by about 14 points or so last year?

Funny how they hang that Td out like a piece of meat because they CAN-
That is the key here, it is -7 because they have the power and they know us, but it has nothing to do with the game.

With this in mind just like last week where the ZONA game vs pHilly should have been a PICKEM, they do it right again to us again- this time they make a line that should be a PICKEM and make it -7..

Agree or disagree, I believe I am 100% right here, and if I am wrong I am just crazy then:seeya:
 
There is no way that they know who will win this game between these 2 teams--

They dont know who will win these superbowl games and is why the results are so off the line in most cases.

I mean one can argue and say well they will win by 10 points. It can happen that PItts wins by 10 points, but that is not the point that I am making-

The point is basically that PItts can win by 10 points BUT ZONA can win by 10 points just as easy at PITTS can win by 10 points.

In reality this game is a 50-50 chance of winning, this explains the double digit dogs winning the games outright. You would think if the Spread had any signigicance the double digit favorites would be blowing out the underdogs.

So in this game basically you could say Zona could be -6 just as easy as Pitts could be -6?

It is true, they have made PITTS -7 because they can, so if they can why not do it.
There is no need to make this line -3 or -4 because there is no need, Pitts has that VALUE with the PUBLIC and bettors worldwide.

Remember taking PItts you are taking them for their REg season value and BETTING POPULARITY--
Zona is not PUPULAR and their Reg season play was undervalued because they were not on NATIONAL TV every single week.

This above is exactly why PITTS is favored by -7

Pitts can win the game and cover by 10, but it is 50% that Zona can also win by 10 points--

The Spread is the biggest SCAM in a SUPERBOWL GAME and know CTG knows it, and is privy to this classified information.
 
Great stuff Sammy. What I want to know is where this line goes, but I think after reading this that the line will not budge....any comment?
 
But 4 of the last 5 Super Bowls the favorites have won- Indy ('06), Pit ('05), Pats ('04), Pats ('03)

Don't remember who was favorite b/w Raiders and Bucs.
 
Kramer said:
But 4 of the last 5 Super Bowls the favorites have won- Indy ('06), Pit ('05), Pats ('04), Pats ('03)

Don't remember who was favorite b/w Raiders and Bucs.
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Raiders were favorites over Bucs and lost--i know i bet them

Pitt was I believe -4 or so the line was lower--

Pats won but did not cover their super bowl vs Carolina-

Pats also covered really late vs eagles I believe when Mcnabb ran out of gas and I believe Pats scored a really late Td or fgoal to cover that-

Sure INDY Won and covered but they had a shot to win and cover anyway, they also needed a INT return for a TD to cover that spread-

before that as i said outright losses and some wins and no covers--

And PITTS did cover but the REFS defininitely had a say in screwing over Seattle, it happened and everyone knows that.
 
Sammy I agree with your assesment but I have Pitt winning in a range of 8-12. I have the total at 42-45. I don't bet this game at all. Too much BS with 1 game. No way Jose for Nawlins. But if I had to I would take Pitt. Also i would take the 47 and tease it with Pitt. Bring Pitt to -1 and the total to 53(under).Thats how I would lay it down buddy.
 
Sammy, In the Pats-Eagles game the Eagles scored late to cover the 7 point spread 24-21. I know because I had the most I'd have ever bet on the Under 47.5. I about had a heart attack when McNabb threw a pic to Rodney Harrison. Thank God Harrison went down to end the game.
 
The heart attack scares are bad, it seems game with PITTS are involved in late drama always it seems like they always are down to the last minute.
 
sammy, how do you do it?

when reading posts like these, i sometimes ask myself if youre a linesmaker in disguise as a regular CTG poster

i wish i knew how lines were set:rosebevo:
 
CapTwo said:
sammy, how do you do it?

when reading posts like these, i sometimes ask myself if youre a linesmaker in disguise as a regular CTG poster

i wish i knew how lines were set:rosebevo:
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Been at it for a while and I was just thinking of how they do it, and I notice trends and things and adjust very quickly. I am great with numbers and figuring out why something is happening.

So I just cleared my mind and thought what does this -6.5 point spread really mean in terms of the game being played in 2 weeks?
It is a basic TAX you lay on Pitts because of their reputation, reg season play and their POWER with the betting Public. The real line could be -4 easily but as I said they set it to what they feel they can, and -6.5 or -7 seems about right.

When you are at it and refuse to LOSE and get pumped up to learn more and more and more about Winning, you figure things like this out. I mean it cant be that hard to predict this superbowl winner can it?

Its basically a game between 2 good teams that one team is being added 7 points for no apparent reason IMO-
 
Getting some phenonemal information from my one PERSON in the world who I listen to about football THE GURU- who follows the Ravens and Pitts religously.

He is really not sold on Pitts in this matchup and has brought to me the following points that I was impressed with his knowledge, he made some points that I was very impressed with.

-He advised me of enough that we are both 100% convinced that this game should be a PICKEM and Arizona has an excellent chance to win this game.

I will update his points that he advised me of -- Here is a quick glimpse of our phone conversations--

-Ken Whisenhunt used to be offensive coordinator of Pittsburgh, he knows the Pitts personnel and more importantly knows BIG BEN. Remember GRUDEN vs GANNON and how that turned out for Oakland.

-Wisenhunt will devise a CONTAIN pass rush to contain BIG BEN. HE said the ravens rushed 2 guys sometimes and BIG BEN cannot find the open guy, he needs to get out of the pocket to throw the ugly passes on broken plays.

-He said Big BEN anticipates BLITZ and then makes the quick read and throws-

-He said ZONA will run a delayed BLITZ on him-

-He said that BIG BEN is sackable when he is in the pocket and pressure comes straight at him or from the middle. He said once BIG BEN gets out of the pocket even a little, its game over, he said there is not one defensive db or player that can take down BIG BEN when he is outside the pocket, that is where he wants to go.

-He advised me that Pitts offense in actuality is really bad. He told me look at all their games and tell me how many td's were either special teams Td's or defensive td's. yesterday Pitts scored 10 points off special teams and defensive turnovers.
-vs Sandieog they scored 14 off special teams plays- punt return and INT.

-He said the Colts spread them out on defense and threw on them, Manning did have 3 touchdown passes that game-

-He said the Steelers are terrible vs TRICK PLAYS also.

-He told me he does not see PItts getting to 21 points in this game-

-He said PItts is not a good offense, they rely on the D and special teams. I would agree with this, in fact he said BIG BEN if he is contained right in the pocket is a below average QB-

-he said Warner will throw 35 times in the game and they will spread out PITTS, and that is the only way to beat them.

-He said the Zona pass rush is a good matchup, he said overly aggressive pass rushes are what BEN looks for. When he sees that he steps around and makes a play.

-He says WHISENHUNT knows BIG BEn and should keep him in the pocket and then make him win the game with his arm.

After listening to him, it makes sense this is from a guy who knows football, he does not bet, but is shocked and asking me why PItts is -7? He does not bet but now he wants to bet on this game for Arizona. He said Kurt Warner will get it done.

THis makes sense to me as Giants, Colts, Tenny did have success vs Steelers spreading them out and throwing on them. We all know how poor most QB's are in the NFL. Perhaps Steelers were the product of good defense but also they are the product of poor quarterbacking and YOUNG qb's all over the league-

If anyone can spread out pitts it wasnt PHILLY, it wasnt Carolina, I doubt it Manning could do it as he is too soft and scared to take a hit. I think it is Kurt Warner, he can do it, I feel like their strengths of ZONA are the perfect team to beat a Defensive, really bad offensive team.

THe more and more I think about this, I see ZONA as a smart innovative offense, meaning they basically run good plays--
What the hell does PITTS RUN? Their play calling and coach TOMLIN are very poor, they are being held above water by DICK LEBEAU-- without Lebeau this team by far has the worst coaching-Offenisve coordinator combo in a while.

I mean just watching PITTS told me that they are 100% reliant on their defense, this is simple to me. If their D is not clicking and holding zona to less than 14 they dont have a shot to win. Meaning if their D is not stoppping ZONA they will lose this game by more than a TD--

There is going to be a mismatch with offensive coordinator ARIANS vs what WHISENHUNT and company will come up with.

LEBEAU is the best in the game as a D caller, but Steelers are pretty weak in the secondary, its all on their pass rush. So far what I have seen is this-

ATL-Carolina and Philly all 3 teams had good pass rushes-- They did not get through to Kurt Warner at all.
If Pitts follows suit and does not get through or at least blast the ZONA O Line, they will suffer the same fate as those other teams that zona beat-

Whisenhunt knows big BEN, he is easy to stop, Baltimore knows BIG BEN inside out, they shut him down completely, they own him, i am sure WHISENHUNT already knows BEN but if he doesent he can look at FILM of BALTY and stop him.

This QB is twice the runner that VICK, Mcnabb, Randall Cunningham ever was. BIG BEN is totally reliant on the run and getting out of the pocket-
 
Guru is very strong on PItts not getting over 21 points, I told him the team total was 27 and he said they wont get close to that number.

I tend to agree, he reminded me of Big bens performance in the last superbowl, and I agree with ARIANS calling the plays, if he calls that Willy Parker shit for 2 runs and one throw, they are not getting over 27 points that is for sure.

If they dont get a Defensive Td and a special teams TD or huge return to set a TD up, they wont get over 27 points, that is correct.

Zona is the better team when these 2 teams match up, there is so many problems I am not opening my eyes up to on PITTS.

-Weak O line, can be manhandled at times and break down.

-Willy PUSSY Parker getting shut down with no running like usual.

-Narcissistic Offensive Coordinator who may be RETARDED in terms of playcalling

-Head coach who may as well wear POM POMS as he does nothing at all, they may as well make DICK LEBEAU the head coach, he does it all for this team.

-Whisenhunt knows PItts inside out and knows BIG BEN as he was offensive coordinator in the last super bowl-

-ARIANS was so confused by Baltimore that he completely stopped calling plays vs Balty, he just started wasting downs giving it to USELESS parker on runs for nothing.

-Injured WARD, his status could mean Pitts even in more trouble.

Superbowl has the most gameplanning by far out of any game, like a bowl game it is important for the teams to prepare for the opponent. ZONA took out DELHOMME and knew everyone of his throws and tendecies.

-What the hell is ARIANS gonna come up with? How about TOMLIN does he even know what is going on or what day the game is? All TOMLIN is a fucking cheerleader, he just stands there and takes credit for LEBEAU winning game after game.
 
This thread HAD VIRUS - High risk ... GAMBLING'S VIRUS

The more you read the more you gonna confuse ! Sammy work for a books / touts ...

LOL...


:36_11_6:

I'm gonna pound the heck out of ZONA - only ...if Shark bet on STEELERS !
 
If you dont believe that PItts will lose this game I will tell you why---

BIG BEN in key games vs good teams 0-4 vs Giants-Eagles-Tenny-Colts-

Yes that is 0-4 vs those 4 teams- Giants-Eagles-Tenny-Colts-

ROTHYBERGER Vs TENNY 2 INT's sacked 5 times
vs COLTS 3 INT's sacked 2 times
vs Giants 4 INT's sacked 5 times
vs Eagles 1 int and sacked 8 times-

These numbers above that the GURU advised me of sums it up-- I was sold ROTHYBERGER is complete shit as a QB--
Those stats dont lie at all.

The thing is they have the wrong team favored by -6.5 here!

Look at those 4 good teams and losses and look at those numbers by ROTHYBERGER, add in his numbers vs BALTY was complete shit also, so why is pITTS -7 again?<TR class=yspsctbg><TD class=ysptblhdr height="18" width="24%"></TD><TD width="8%"></TD><TD width="8%"></TD><TD width="8%"></TD><TD width="8%"></TD><TD width="8%"></TD><TD width="8%"></TD><TD width="8%"></TD><TD width="6%"></TD><TD width="6%"></TD><TD width="8%"></TD></TR><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align="right"><TD class="yspdetailttl first" align="left" height="18">
 
The line will continue to rise I hope, cause this line is completely wrong, Zona is the better team here hands down. There is not even any doubt in my mind that I have figured out how and WHY this line was set.

This is the key in these SUPERBOWL games and I believe I have figured this out, If anyone is going to cover -7 I believe it will be ZONA covering that spread. It will not be PItts, it just won't ZOna is the play hands down.

I cant believe I figured this out, I am in shock, and we are getting a free Td because of this, and we wont need it, PItts will be the one needing the points. :smiley_acbe:
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
The line will continue to rise I hope, cause this line is completely wrong, Zona is the better team here hands down. There is not even any doubt in my mind that I have figured out how and WHY this line was set.

This is the key in these SUPERBOWL games and I believe I have figured this out, If anyone is going to cover -7 I believe it will be ZONA covering that spread. It will not be PItts, it just won't ZOna is the play hands down.

I cant believe I figured this out, I am in shock, and we are getting a free Td because of this, and we wont need it, PItts will be the one needing the points. :smiley_acbe:
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How does that fit with your assesment here?
http://www.cappingthegame.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1290317&postcount=44
 
sammy , make up your mind already, no need to go back and forth. not to mention, Big Ben does not suck as a qb, most teams would love to have a qb with his skill.
 
madshooter said:
sammy , make up your mind already, no need to go back and forth. not to mention, Big Ben does not suck as a qb, most teams would love to have a qb with his skill.
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First of all I have made up my mind now, initially I was misinformed about PIttsburgh, after looking into deeper and speaking to an associate regarding the game I realized I was completley wrong about game, so I am not flipping back and forth as I have not put my bet in anyway.

Okay now here is the startling thing about this whole thing.

Because PItts was on TV the whole year and they had the exposure from the viewing audience. So you are paying for their Reputation and Perception that they are some awesome team. What is even more perplexing to me is that Vegas is able to make PItts -6.5 for their regular season play even though in reality Pitts play was very very mediocre IMO-

I will post the following stats to prove it. Also Madshooter BIG BEN is not a QB, Warner,Manning, Brady are QB's-- BIG BEN is a super strong amazing ATHLETE, he is a fierce competitor and just super athletic, he finds ways to win games. He is not a natural QB, but that is okay because he is a WINNER anyway, he has a lot of HEART and toughness and Grit, the exact opposite of the 2 manning brothers.

Okay so we have a favored Defensive team playing in this game by 7-

Okay lets see what Pitts highest scoring output was this year--

38 points vs Houston-- Willy Parker ran for 3 td's in that game and a 5.5 yard per carry average. BIG BEN was 13 of 14 for 2 td's and 2 sacks-

38 points vs CINCY--- moore ran for 2 tds and 120 yards-
BIg ben was 17 of 28 216 yards and 2 td's-

Competition gets tougher and watch what happens to BIG BEN-

Eagles game-

BEN- 13 for 25 131 yards sacked 8 times 1 interception RATING OF 50

Giants game
BEn- 13 for 29 189 yards sacked 5 times 4 interception RATING of 38.5
1 td thrown by ben
COlts game

Ben- 30 for 42 284 yards sacked 2 times 3 interception Rating of 60

Tenny game

BEn- 26 of 40 331 yards sacked 5 times 2 int's 2 td's Rating of 86.6

Dallas game

ben- 17 of 33 204 yards sacked 5 times 1 td no ints rating of 80

Balty game playofss-

Ben- 16 of 33 for 255 yards 1 td sacked 4 times- rating of 84.8

These games above were all on TV, every single one of them, now the defense pretty much played great in all of the games, even though Pittsburgh lost 4 of the above 6 games.
Now why did PItts lose 4 of the 6 above games? Just a guess but it may have something to do with a retarded offensive coordinator and coach who stands with pom poms on the sidelines?

It may have something to do with BIG BEN's horrible numbers above. The truth is PItts is a very bad offense. The numbers dont lie. If willy Parker is not gashing defenses for over 125 yards, they cannot move the ball and score unless its turnovers and handed to them.

So why is the line still -6.5? You are paying a hell of a PRICE for the PItts DEFENSE in this case. You are paying a ridiculous price for the best defense in the NFL. However they lost 4 of the above games I noted and were extremely lucky to beat Dallas and Baltimore twice in a row.

In reality they played bad enough to possibly lose 6 of the 7 games I noted above.

So it is what it is, Pitts offense is very poor, the numbers dont lie here.

Madshooter I think there is your proof about BIG BEN's Qb'ing skills. Now on the other hand you need a qb to get a 2 min drill going I will take big ben, as he will do anything to win, he is tough and strong.

So before people come in here and accuse me of switching sides, the game was over Sunday and I had this post out Monday and am sold on ZONA. It happens part of winning is adjusting, and if anyone has any problems with it I will not share my information anymore and just keep it to myself if that works better for everyone. :cheers:
 
So are you comparing the Giants, Tennessee, Baltimore & Cowboys defenses to Arizona?

Sorry Sammy, your train has gone off the tracks here. Get some sleep, take a week and look at this game through some fresh eyes.
 
3rd & Long said:
So are you comparing the Giants, Tennessee, Baltimore & Cowboys defenses to Arizona?

Sorry Sammy, your train has gone off the tracks here. Get some sleep, take a week and look at this game through some fresh eyes.
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3rd and LONG--

This is the best Offense that Pitts will have played, they will chew clock off also.

Zona is not the best Defense in the leaugue but you are forgetting that Whisenhunt knows BIG BEN inside out, he coached him, remember John GRUDEN, when you know a QB, it is very easy to shut him down, he knows every single move, every throw, Cards are an athletic bunch.

I think in this case ZONA has an advantage that Giants, Tenny, Eagles, Balty did not have, they have film on BIG BEN all year and have WHISENHUNT, not only that they have the Offensive LINE coach of PITTS, they know the weaknesses off PItts O line in this game.

3rd and long: Tell me how hard will it be for ZONA to stop BIG BEN and PItts? Are you telling me that ARIANS is gonna get a brain and learn how to call a game now all of a sudden? ARIANS stopped calling plays, do you understand that, he gave up, he said fuck it we cant move it, we are not going to turn it over and we are going to punt the ball. This team is 100% reliant on the defense scoring.

I can tell you vs ZONA they will need to score offensive points, and their NO MISTAKE offense will not work to get a lead.

Zona has good athletic players, they are also good at sacking the QB, they will sack BIG BEN, look above everyone sacks BIG BEN.

BIG BEN's struggles last super bowl was not a FLUKE, he can struggle as I proved above, he is an average QB, if he is not running around like nuts and getting 2 interceptions by the defense and a special teams TD.

I see people saying PItts will score 42 or 38 points? Are you kidding me?

This offense can barely put up 14 points a game by itself. You think ARIANS is gonna learn how to call a game now?

3rdLong- You can criticize the ZONA D, but they have en edge with Whisenhunt knowing BIG BEN inside out, they will contain him and he cant beat an NFL team passing, he has yet to do it by himself.

How about the PItts offense? It blows, how about those 11 first downs vs Balty, and 11 earlier vs i thikn the eagles? If you criticize the Zona D, you must take into account the PItts offense is complete shit.
 
you are thinking about the steelers offense all wrong... they are not poor, and are just as good as any other team if need be, they just don't need to score as much as every other team in the league... they do not NEED serious offensive production and do not NEED to score 28+ pts a game when their defense prevents the other team from scoring more than twice....
:4_12_13:

it's all about offensive AND defensive balance, and the steelers have the right formula as far as i'm concerned... criticize big ben all you want with poor numbers less than stellar qb ratings, but the guy is a proven winner since day 1... fyi - you don't need a qb rating over 100 to win the football game, you need more points than the other team...


also - when did ARI become a team whos defense compares well to NYG, TEN, BAL??? it baffles me that just b/c ARI is in the superbowl that all of a sudden they can be compared apples to apples to the best teams in the league...

ARI is NOT NYG, ARI is NOT TEN, ARI is NOT BAL!
 
You are correct MOGO, but the ZONA D is underrated overall. They are quick and fast and have some athletes.

PItts has been scored on Indy put 24, Tenny put 24 on them.

The reason PItts is in trouble in this game is simple. Teams move the ball on PITTS but then kick fgoals or self destruct near the end zone--

However ZONA is a very good red zone team, there is no way they will stop Larry Fitz and warner near the goal line. Zona is scoring td's at this point near the end zone--

Pitts blitzed Baltimore up 16-7 in the 4th qtr and Flacco threw a quick fade to the left to a 3rd string receiver who I had never heard off he was 5 yards behind Ike TAYLOR and he committed the pass interference penalty that set up the baltimore touchdown.

That is how good the PItts D is, they rely on getting to the QB and flustering him, Warner is good vs the Blitz, so I dont see them having success vs them.

Pitts played one good QB that spread them out, Peyton manning threw 3 touchdowns on them and spread them out. Warner can do it better than Manning at spreading them out because he has played in 2 superbowls and is calm and composed. He will come through in the clutch not like Manning.

Pitts D played a shit offensive division bro- look at it, and besides we can agree from what you said that PItts is a team that wins ugly and wins by a few points, and to cover needs that late defensvie td every week to cover-

I have all the respect for BIG BEN, he is a warrior, tough as hell, but I think he out of all people will struggle like Gannon did vs ZOna. ZOna is not that bad on defense, remember vs Carolina. The philly game was tough, but philly O line was not letting anyone through including shutting down the giants and Vikings ferocious pass rushes.
 
PItts will be spread out and will not do well. They cannot keep 7 guys in coverage vs 2 receivers like they do vs Baltimore.

Zona will come out with 3 and 4 wide receiving packages, PItts plays a lot of zone coverage. You cannot play zone vs a team like ZOna who spreads you out.

Did you see how Philly was spread out so wide? WHen it came down to it vs a pro bowl corner who shut everyone else out in the leauge, Warner and Fitz were abusing SAMUEL.
Spread PItts out, take them out of their usual defense and you will see.

Pitts stops the run of most teams, in this game Zona wil have success running at them because Pitts wont be able to crowd the middle of the line.
Pitts then plays zone and takes away most passing lanes. However vs Zona they look for matchups.

Zona attacked Philly defense, I think they can attack PItts also.

Pitts is better than Philly at linebacker position, no doubt and a little tougher--

However Philly is much better vs the pass than PITTS, and we saw how that worked out for Philly. They couldnt stop the zona pass game.

Warner has been here before and he beleives he can win, I think this a pickem game, the line is set wrong for sure. Zona has so many things in their favor in this mathcup.

Remember game planning is huge for the superbowl--

Tomlin and ARians? What are they going to come up with? hopefully more than they did vs baltimore.

ANother factor is weather, hot nice weather, good luck PItts, try stopping zona in that weather-

I can tell you when opportunities are there Warner will throw to Larry Fitz and he will make the catch, he is that good, taht big, that strong, PItts db's are a complete mismatch if Warner has time, they will turn the pitts defenders inside out on plays.

Check it Flacco is the BEST matchup in the world for PITTS, he holds the ball for ever and they have no plays vs pressure. When FLACCO hit that pass to the 3rd string receiver, he back pedalled and just threw it up, how the hell was a 3rd stringer 5 yards behind Ike Taylor? If 3rd stringers on Balty are getting behind PItts D, Fitzgerald is going to rape these guys-

Zona has the right offense to baet this team, Warner will spread them wide-

Pitts is in for a shock, Palamulu stands sometimes 20 yards off the ball and plays deep safety, this will not work if you are spread out. NO team has spread PItts out yet except for INDY, ZONA is the 2nd team to spread them out with 3 to 4 legit receiveing threats.

I can imagine If I was a QB and i see larry Fitzgerald lined up on Ike taylor near the red zone, I know that all i have to do is throw it up and Fitzgerald will just take the ball in the air away from TAYLOR. Fitzgerals one on one skills are so good, I think he wins a jump ball type fade at least 95 of 100 attempts. I watched him in college, and on that fade vs Sheldon Brown for the Td, WOW I think brown i still looking for fitzgerald at the field. in college vs Miami, tehy ran a fade to Fitzgerald and the db was really good and have a super high vertical and jumped really high, he was so high in the air, well Fitzgerald managed to jump even higher and grabbed the ball at the highest point possible and grabbed it from this guy, the ball must have been close to 11.5 feet in the air when Fitzgerald grabbed it.
 
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also - when did ARI become a team whos defense compares well to NYG, TEN, BAL??? it baffles me that just b/c ARI is in the superbowl that all of a sudden they can be compared apples to apples to the best teams in the league...

I agree the AZ defense is nowhere near as good as Tenn/Bal however I do think they are about even with a team like Indy on defensive side of the ball. Regardless what we think one thing is for certain AZ has won the turnover battle all through these playoffs but will that continue.......I do think AZ offense is way better then Tenn/Bal, its a no contest when comparing qb's of those teams.
 
Now that I'm starting to recover from the kick the Titans and NFL delivered to my nuts two weeks ago, let me express my thoughts.

There is no way books throw out a line that Pittsburgh will cover. I'm even more convinced now as I don't think most public bettors will go crazy for the Cardinals at +7.If the books were sold on the Steelers in this matchup, the line would be 9.5 at the lowest and possibly up to 11. The Steelers are the glamour team and against the NFL they are much better than the Cardinals.

My thoughts are the exact same as Meatballs. If the line was under 6, I was going to back up the truck on the Cardinals ML and spread. If the line was over 7, I was going to stay way. Now that it's out and it's 7, it tells me that the books really have no idea with this game, and honestly how can they because it is a bizzare matchup.

I'm liking the Cardinals for sure at the moment. To me it's just a question of whether the Cardinals can get over 21 points. If they can, they win. Easier said than done of course.
 
ALso remember this look at Pitts offensive outputs this year on the season--

Pitts scored vs playoff teams, we will ignore the 38 vs CINCY and Houston--

Pitts scored- 10 at Cleveland
6 at Philly
23 vs baltimore
26 vs jacksonville
14 vs giants
23 vs washington
20 vs indy
11 vs sandiego
33 vs new england
20 vs Dallas (late int's for td)
13 vs baltimore
14 vs tennesse
35 vs Sandiego- 14 pts off special teams plays-
23 vs baltimore - 10 points off defense-special teams-

This is not a high scoring team to begin with, so when I hear people saying they will get 40 points? maybe vs Cincy or Houston in a reg season matchup.

This is the key right here, for this supposed GREAT D look at these totals--

Tenny scored 31 points
Indy scored 24 points
Baltimore scored 20 points
Giants scored 21 points
Sandiego scored 24 points
Jacksonviell score 21 points

These above are some totals given up, but the most important game that showed me about this PITTS game was last game vs baltimore.

If FLACCO a rookie QB, who is not good vs Blitz, baltimore only runs 2 receivers, and had no more than a 6 play drive in any 2nd half of games vs Pitts manage to score 14 points on PITTS?

So look at what Pitts is giving up, Flacco played one of the worst games in a while but he was able to get 14 off PITTS. The 14 points also were got no 2 pass interference calls in teh end zone. Tihs is PITTS weakness, single coverage, if they are taking flags vs BALTIMORE, how are they going to cover ZONA? i dont see how Ike taylor can cover Larry FITZ?

ALso look at some of the other teams getting in the 20's vs PItts D and that is teams that do not have the spread attack that ZONA has.

When I factor in that ZOna should get into the 20's, I belive PItts likely needs to hit 31 points to cover this spread. i dont see them getting that total. Look at it, they only get over 30 vs Houston an cincy and cleveland who go 3 and out all day long-

i honestly dont think there is enough time for pitts to cover this spread, zona will work the clock and control the ball.

If you have ever bet a PITTS game what you are asking for? You are always saying fuck I wish we had more time on the clock, I wish we had another qtr. IMO for pItts in this game they would need the game to be 7 quarters long to cover this spread. They just dont blow good teams out.

They were 0-3 vs Baltmore vs covering the spread of -7 if we take away the late td last game-
THey won by 7 over dallas in a fluke of the century win where ROMO melted down.

This team has shown they want to win but are not built to blow out teams. They are not a front running team, they are a team that turns it on late and wins games by a few points.
 
MusicCityGambler said:
Now that I'm starting to recover from the kick the Titans and NFL delivered to my nuts two weeks ago, let me express my thoughts.

There is no way books throw out a line that Pittsburgh will cover. I'm even more convinced now as I don't think most public bettors will go crazy for the Cardinals at +7.If the books were sold on the Steelers in this matchup, the line would be 9.5 at the lowest and possibly up to 11. The Steelers are the glamour team and against the NFL they are much better than the Cardinals.

My thoughts are the exact same as Meatballs. If the line was under 6, I was going to back up the truck on the Cardinals ML and spread. If the line was over 7, I was going to stay way. Now that it's out and it's 7, it tells me that the books really have no idea with this game, and honestly how can they because it is a bizzare matchup.

I'm liking the Cardinals for sure at the moment. To me it's just a question of whether the Cardinals can get over 21 points. If they can, they win. Easier said than done of course.
Click to expand...


You got it buddy, they dont know who to favor here, IMO PItts should be the dog, I may not even bother with the spread here, I need to find the ALTERNATE spread here on ZONA. There is no doubt that they are playing it safe here music city, the line of -7 is the line where we dont know but we will just install the touchdown spread.

If Joe Flacco can get 14 in cold snowing weather, Warner will rip apart PItts, Manning did it already he threw 3 td's and their play calling was spreading pitts apart.

Exactly if they were sold on Steelers it would be -9.5 for sure. The lower line was just thrown out there, it could have been -3, but why not make it -6.5 or 7, peope will still love the steelers. Zona is unknown to many bettors who havent seen them play.

PItts getting burned by Balty receivers at goal line, how do they stop Zona receivers? Larry FITZ can almost jump out of the stadium, he will burn any PITTS db inside out, I can tell you that much, he abused Samuel one of the top corners in the NFL.

I know a little about FITZ, used to play football and we had this receiver on our team who was very good, like a CFL prospect, when I played QB, I would just throw it to him and we would always beat the Db, he was smooth had great hands and kind of like a Larry Fitz. So I know from experience that how a great receiver like FITZ is dominant. No one can stop this guy, especially PItts db's. Warner knows this also and is taking advantage of it. I would still throw it to Fitzgerald vs any 2 db's on PItts, he can beat 2 db's on pitts without any issue. look at Carolina he did it there vs 2 and 3 sometimes.
 
sammy, i swear i think you intentional POST ALOT just so all your bs gets mixed together, and nobody can real decipher what you are saying... i'm not going to try to pick through your post to point out where you are misinformed, or where we disagree b/c it's pointless and you'll respond with something just as long...

the one thing you said that i couldn't stop laughing about though was this....

Warner has been here before and he beleives he can win, I think this a pickem game, the line is set wrong for sure. Zona has so many things in their favor in this mathcup.

Big Ben just WON the superbowl ONLY 2 years ago (2 trips in 4 years says alot about how good he is), which is much more recent than Warner's Superbowl showing... so Warner believes he can win and Big Ben DOES NOT????? yeah that makes a lot of sense...
 
BIG BEN MOGO worst QB RATING IN SUPERBOWL HISTORY IN THE NFL---

and we all know the REFS handed that win to Pittsburgh there, Cordell Stewart would have been better than BIG BEn in that game.

What I meant with my line above is that WARNER played in a SUPERBOWL and acutally COMPLETED a pass and played LIKE a CHAMPION.

BIG BEN oh he was in the game, and I think a receiver RANDLE EL completed their Td pass? BIG BEN was there in the game as a CHEERLEADER, he won a super bowl and also won the record for WORST QB SUPERBOWL PERFORMANCE OF ALL TIME-

Warner was cheated with the rams the 2nd time in the superbowl--

I was at the first game live in new england when Rams played Pats in reg season and RAMS WON.

In the superbowl when Pats Db OTIS SMITH intercepted Warner on a hook I was very shocked and wondered how the hell did he do that?

It is obvious to me now that fucking cheater bellichekc filmed their plays and knew which plays were coming and it resulted in interceptions absoulte Bs, rams were cheated.

MOGO if you think BIG BEN won a superbowl you are wrong--

THE DEFENSE and the REFS won that SUPERBOWL for PITTS--
BIG BEN flat out choked and did nothing in that game. TO win a superbowl you have to actually show up and do something in the big game-

Manning, Brady,Montana, Warner,Favre, when they won the super bowl they all complete passes and believe it or not actually threw a touchdown pass, and didnt need a receiver to throw their td pass.
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
You got it buddy, they dont know who to favor here, IMO PItts should be the dog, I may not even bother with the spread here, I need to find the ALTERNATE spread here on ZONA. .
Click to expand...

:36_11_6: :36_11_6: :36_11_6: :36_11_6: :36_11_6:


/end thread
 
If I were the Steelers, I'd much rather have seen the Eagles. The Eagles would have had the weight of the world on their shoulders in this game and they're a relatively predictable opponent. I would have pounded the Steelers in that matchup.

The Cardinals have nothing to lose here and they can score rapidly which is troublesome for the Steelers if Big Ben struggles. Granted the Steelers have the best defense in the league, but they really haven't seen any team like this. Cardinals would have been dangerous for any of the defensive minded AFC teams because their considerable offensive firepower forces your offense to play perfect.
 
exactly Eagles would never beat the Steelers because reid and mcnabb cant win the BIG GAME. Reid is not a big game coach and mcnabb is not a big game qb- end of story-

Warner is a big game qb he has won a superbowl and was ripped off by bellicheat on the 2nd one, and still managed to have the game tied in the 4th qtr even though pats knew all of the rams scripted plays in the first half.

Exactly Whisenhunt factor is huge, he knows BIG BEN, and WARD is hurt, he says he will play but his knee looked twisted pretty good, he is not fast to begin with , he could be even slower with a hurt knee?

Offense can beat Defense, ZONA was beating Carolina by over 20 points on the road and ealges by 18 and almost 25, that is what offense can do for you.

This is not any Baltimore shit team showing up, Pitts has lost 4 times earlier to playoff teams and can lose again. They match up really bad vs Zona.
 
cappingbob said:
The only reason they got to 14 was because of 2 pass interference calls in the end zone. Their offense was terrible.
Click to expand...

Okay now a terrible offense like Baltimore, did you see those plays?

He threw a simple 10 yard in route to Mason, and the DB contacted him and was not anticipating that pass at all. FLAG TD resulted-

The second pass was off a blitz and Flacco threw it to some 3rd stringer who got 5 yards behind the pitts db, and the pitts db face guarded him and hit him.

That is shown Pitts db's could not even stop the balty receivers in situations where they dont have 7 db's and have the 4 linebackers patrolling the field in zone and taking away passing lanes.

The Pitts Db's are below average vs the pass. They play with 7 db's, do you hear that? When they are forced to cover one on one they are below average db's. Pitts is smoke and mirrors, this defense does not have good pass db's, they will be spread out and exposed in this game.

I can dress anyone on this forum and they could play DB for PItts and not get burned, I am serious about that, if you can move a bit, becuase you cant get burned when the QB has no time to throw and there is 7 db's in coverage.

It is shown when PItts is spread out they are weak, Vincent Jackson burned them right away in teh sandiego game for a long TD--

Kerry Collins going 20 for 29 with a controlled passing attack--



Meatball special stat- 9 of PItts 14 wins were vs NON PLAYOFF TEAMS
PItts 4 losses vs ALL PLAYOFF TEAMS

Even more disturbing- Pitts 5 wins vs playoff teams were 3 wins vs Baltimore and 2 vs Sandiego? Can you believe that? :seeya:

HMMMM who should be favored again?
 
ARI couldn't beat WASH (17-24), NYJ (35-56), CAR (23-27), NYG (29-37), PHIL (20-48), MINN (14-35), and NE (7-47) during the regular season - yet somehow they will beat PITT and a -7 is too big of a spread!?!?!?


if teams such as NYJ, PHIL, MINN, NE (who are all not THAT much better than PITT on offensive) can all put up 35+ points against ARI, then why can't PITT do the same? why is that soooo out of the realm of possibility sammy?
 
mogo said:
ARI couldn't beat WASH (17-24), NYJ (35-56), CAR (23-27), NYG (29-37), PHIL (20-48), MINN (14-35), and NE (7-47) during the regular season - yet somehow they will beat PITT and a -7 is too big of a spread!?!?!?


if teams such as NYJ, PHIL, MINN, NE (who are all not THAT much better than PITT on offensive) can all put up 35+ points against ARI, then why can't PITT do the same? why is that soooo out of the realm of possibility sammy?
Click to expand...

I think the key point is the line could have very easily been set for the Steelers to be 9 to 11.5 point favorites based on perception and whatnot, and it didn't happen. The fact that it isn't that high leads me to believe quite strongly that the Cardinals will likely cover. Not saying they win, but they're probably going to cover.
 
mogo said:
ARI couldn't beat WASH (17-24), NYJ (35-56), CAR (23-27), NYG (29-37), PHIL (20-48), MINN (14-35), and NE (7-47) during the regular season - yet somehow they will beat PITT and a -7 is too big of a spread!?!?!?


if teams such as NYJ, PHIL, MINN, NE (who are all not THAT much better than PITT on offensive) can all put up 35+ points against ARI, then why can't PITT do the same? why is that soooo out of the realm of possibility sammy?
Click to expand...

Come on MOGO have you ever made a bet in your life? Old form and current form are 2 different things? ZONA struggled at one point where they were not mentall into it. pads came on in practice and they refocussed.

Results were beating every playoff team good, and leading by double digits over every playoff team--

You honestly think that matters what Zona gave up before? RODGERS Cromartie was not even a starter earlier. Also its how teams are playing of late-

Pitts is really 5-4 taht is their real record, with 3 wins vs Balty and 2 vs sandiego, they are really overrated. 9 wins out of 14 vs non playoff teams-

You are asking a team to score over 30 that has no balls, no play calling, no coaching, are you serious? yeah zona struggled early on, thats why they make changes and adjustments.

It is beyond the realm of possibilities that Pitts scores more than 30 points, it just wont happen. Pitts will try to win this game 20 to 13 ish- I can guarantee you that.

MOGO you are not getting the point, this is a toss up game, 2 good teams, 2 teams that want to win, why are you laying -7 on PITTS?

Is it the 9 wins over non playoff teams?
is it the 0-4 vs playoff teams?
Is it the 5 wins over playoff teams but 3 vs balty and 2 vs sandieog?

There is no reason PItts shuold be favored here, they dont know who will win, the 7 points is a recommendation by VEGAS based on the publics betting behaviour.

WHen you grasp that you will understand , music city understands this.

The real line here is a PICKEM- there is no reason PItts should be favored in this game.
 
Remember this--- The spread is a RECOMMENDATION and has no bearing on teh game-

How come Balty won as DOGS? how did ZOna win as +10 dogs and then +4 how did eagles win as +4 dogs vs giants?

I will tell you how the spread has no effect on a game, its not like they say okay guys Pittsburgh is playing Arizona, what do you think the score will be guys-

oddsmaker 1 27-20 Pitts
odsmaker 2 30-23 Pitts
oddsmaker 3 28-21 Pitts

Okay the line is -7 then guys set it at -7.

They dont know who will win, the line is that based on us and our reg season betting behaviour. The key is look at all the upsets in the NFL playoffs, the spread is a RECOMMENDATION and holds no water at all.

So if it holds no water that explains how dogs win games so easily in playoffs--

In this game they are recommeding a -7 point spread when in reality they didnt even consider who is really playing, they are just putting it out there-

So you are getting a free Td with ZONA becuase with these 2 teams I can say that odds are 50% chance of either team winning the game.

That is how this game is hyped up and built up.
 
PITT is making it's 2nd superbowl appearance in 4 years, and it going there with a 14-4 record against the hardest regular season EVER scheduled in the NFL.... and you think they shouldn't be favored!?!?!?

see just the fact that you believe this game is really a pickem and that ARI should be favored shows how far off and out of the world you really are.... it really hurts your credibility....
 
Mogo the only thing I can tell you is watch and see.

You will see and agree with me that this game should be a pickem when you are watching the superbowl and you will believe that pitts should be slight dogs also.
 
well you're no vanzack at setting a line that's for sure....
icon12.gif




:shake:
 
The line is NOT set on us.:36_11_6:Atleast not initially. Come on Sammy, you should know better. The lines are set based on stats and alot of math. Then they throw in the injuries, etc. But initially it's stats. Injuries later and then us, the public, as to which way we move according to the numbers they threw out there. And as far as I'm concerned, I had the line at Pitt-8 so it has moved even closer to where I thought it should be. The betting will move it again. Which way? I have no clue just yet. Now, in reality and on the field, which team will perform better? Which team has the more experienced players? Which team will not fold under pressure? Which coach can adjust and match his players with the opponent the best? Thats what we need to figure out:shake:
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
First of all I have made up my mind now, initially I was misinformed about PIttsburgh, after looking into deeper and speaking to an associate regarding the game I realized I was completley wrong about game, so I am not flipping back and forth as I have not put my bet in anyway.

Okay now here is the startling thing about this whole thing.

Because PItts was on TV the whole year and they had the exposure from the viewing audience. So you are paying for their Reputation and Perception that they are some awesome team.

this statement is just plain dumb, # 1 , if you have Direct TV football package, you would get to see every game from every team. #2 if you don't have Direct Tv football package, you would get whatever your local station shows ( here in Fl we get either Tampa Bay, Jax or Miami.) I can tell you first hand that if i didn't have Direct TV, i would have been watching the above teams every week, not the Steelers.

So the above statement makes no sense whatsoever, in fact after reading it, i do believe that I may actually be dumber than what i was prior to reading it. :shake:
Click to expand...
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
Mogo the only thing I can tell you is watch and see.

You will see and agree with me that this game should be a pickem when you are watching the superbowl and you will believe that pitts should be slight dogs also.
Click to expand...

Then Vegas's Books will file for BANKRUPTCY -on MON !
 
madshooter said:
Sammy Meatballs said:
First of all I have made up my mind now, initially I was misinformed about PIttsburgh, after looking into deeper and speaking to an associate regarding the game I realized I was completley wrong about game, so I am not flipping back and forth as I have not put my bet in anyway.

Okay now here is the startling thing about this whole thing.

Because PItts was on TV the whole year and they had the exposure from the viewing audience. So you are paying for their Reputation and Perception that they are some awesome team.

this statement is just plain dumb, # 1 , if you have Direct TV football package, you would get to see every game from every team. #2 if you don't have Direct Tv football package, you would get whatever your local station shows ( here in Fl we get either Tampa Bay, Jax or Miami.) I can tell you first hand that if i didn't have Direct TV, i would have been watching the above teams every week, not the Steelers.

So the above statement makes no sense whatsoever, in fact after reading it, i do believe that I may actually be dumber than what i was prior to reading it. :shake:
Click to expand...




I live in St Louis, and yes, I get Rams and Chiefs when they are on, but I had Pitt nearly every week this year.

Not counting their Sunday/Monday night games I know for fact I had them v. Indy, Dallas, Tennessee, Balt, NYG, Philly and SD.......That is 7 "National TV" games......so yeah, they were on TV more than almost anyone.



Regarding all of this..........the line is set for equal action. Vegas kills on props and shit like that....if they have 50/50 action on the side and total they'd be thrilled.

Pitt -3 would be overflowing action on Pitt, and Pitt -10 would get pounded w/ AZ bets.
Click to expand...
 
madshooter i dont where you live but off the top of my head--

Pitts was the CBS showcase national game almost every week--

PItts vs Washington was on monday night
Pitts vs Jaxonville was on monday night
Pitts vs Cleveland was on sunday night
Pitts vs baltimore was on Monday night
Pitts vs Indy was CBS National game which the whole country gets
Pitts vs Dallas was CBS National game which the whole country gets
PItts vs Giants was CBS National game
Pitts vs Eagles was CBS National game
Pitt vs Sandieog was CBS National game
Pitt vs New ENgland was CBS national game-

So what do we have here? They are the most watched team so you think you are going to get value with that team? They are -7 or so but that is because of the fact they are on TV every single week. Agree with Aplous they can get even action at around 7 points, however I know that the real line is way off here.

As I said there is no real determination on who will win this matchup of styles. The public knows Pitts and they know the demand for PItts, demand is high for PItts.

When you are looking to buy a house in New york vs Minnesota its simple.

THe same house is 200,000 in Minny and is 1.3 million in new york--

Its all about demand and that translates into the PRICE you pay--

The defensive teams can win, but oddly enough they are usually always UNDERDOGS in superbowls---

Pats underdogs vs rams-
bears underdogs vs colts
Giants underdogs vs Pats
Bucs underdogs vs Oakland

Steelers are the only team that has been favored over Seattle a few years back and did not cover IMO as REFS cheated and gave them the win. This year Steelers again are favorites even though they are better defensively.

The offensive team is almost always favored in a superbowl and in this game they have it backwards because Pitts is playing.
 
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